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Common mining fear: "My machine will be obsolete next year." Reality: We're hitting diminishing returns on chip efficiency. The newest tech runs at 15 J/TH. The gains from here get smaller and smaller. Flip phone → iPhone = massive leap. iPhone 15 → iPhone 16 = barely noticeable. Mining... show more

Simple Mining

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20,586 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Chamath and David Sacks start laughing at Jcal's $AAPL thesis: “I think $AAPL is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice, but my Lord, that company could just run the table on AI if they get this right." “It’s just like the iPhone. Everybody laughed at the first iPhone.” "If you think about how Apple makes money off of hardware, off of their devices, they will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just running local models and supporting them with this memory architecture." "It’s going to be wild when people have unlimited tokens on their desktop, I'm telling you."

Chamath and David Sacks start laughing at Jcal's $AAPL thesis: “I think $AAPL is a screaming buy right now. And that's not financial advice, but my Lord, that company could just run the table on AI if they get this right." “It’s just like the iPhone. Everybody laughed at the first iPhone.” "If you think about how Apple makes money off of hardware, off of their devices, they will put so much downward pressure on Claude and OpenAI by just running local models and supporting them with this memory architecture." "It’s going to be wild when people have unlimited tokens on their desktop, I'm telling you."

dnap

326,048 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

.Naval: “The reality is that opportunities have never been more equal than now. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have the same iPhone you do. They don’t have some better version of an iPhone. They’re eating food that might be marginally better than yours, but it’s basically the same. You might even have a better diet than them. You probably have more time to go to the gym than them. They’re not immortal, and they’re not going to be—most likely, not at this time scale. So you have more youth than them. You have a lot of advantages over them. The wealth gaps are actually much smaller than people think. A lot of that is due to mass production, which comes from specialization, labor, and capitalism. But it’s very easy to overlook that and agitate—because that gets you higher in the status hierarchy with other monkeys. It makes you look like you’re fighting for noble causes and gives you status, which is really what people are craving these days. They’re craving status, not money or wealth. And status is a zero-sum game. So it’s kind of an evil game to play because there have to be losers for every winner. And the only way to win is by crushing somebody else down.”

.Naval: “The reality is that opportunities have never been more equal than now. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have the same iPhone you do. They don’t have some better version of an iPhone. They’re eating food that might be marginally better than yours, but it’s basically the same. You might even have a better diet than them. You probably have more time to go to the gym than them. They’re not immortal, and they’re not going to be—most likely, not at this time scale. So you have more youth than them. You have a lot of advantages over them. The wealth gaps are actually much smaller than people think. A lot of that is due to mass production, which comes from specialization, labor, and capitalism. But it’s very easy to overlook that and agitate—because that gets you higher in the status hierarchy with other monkeys. It makes you look like you’re fighting for noble causes and gives you status, which is really what people are craving these days. They’re craving status, not money or wealth. And status is a zero-sum game. So it’s kind of an evil game to play because there have to be losers for every winner. And the only way to win is by crushing somebody else down.”

Arjun Khemani

605,643 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

In the next year, AI will be smarter than all of us. There'll be outliers of course… Some people will still be ahead in specific corners, because our thinking is strange in ways models can’t reproduce. We're messy compute and occasionally we'll lands somewhere a machine can't. But these are exceptions. The Exponential Age is hitting the steep part of its curve and you can already see it. Take Anthropic for eg. Their revenue is scaling beyond Metcalfe’s Law into Reed's Law, making it the fastest growing revenue line of any company in human history. Ludicrous when you think about it. And it won't stop with one company. Every one of these curves feeds the next, and all of them together bend the Exponential Age into the Economic Singularity. Intelligence compounds, capital reallocates, and the system starts running at a tempo we can't even process.

In the next year, AI will be smarter than all of us. There'll be outliers of course… Some people will still be ahead in specific corners, because our thinking is strange in ways models can’t reproduce. We're messy compute and occasionally we'll lands somewhere a machine can't. But these are exceptions. The Exponential Age is hitting the steep part of its curve and you can already see it. Take Anthropic for eg. Their revenue is scaling beyond Metcalfe’s Law into Reed's Law, making it the fastest growing revenue line of any company in human history. Ludicrous when you think about it. And it won't stop with one company. Every one of these curves feeds the next, and all of them together bend the Exponential Age into the Economic Singularity. Intelligence compounds, capital reallocates, and the system starts running at a tempo we can't even process.

Raoul Pal

117,386 görüntüleme • 19 gün önce

🎙️The Wild Truth About Bitcoin Mining Ep. 92 with Bob Burnett My guest today is Bob Burnett, veteran technologist, former Gateway CTO, and now CEO of Barefoot Mining. From consumer tech pioneer with eight U.S. patents to leader in sovereign Bitcoin mining, Bob shares his vision for “wild mining,” where miners own their energy using innovative energy sources. He challenges the myth that mining is only for massive corporations, showing how small, strategically placed operations can be both profitable and decentralizing. We discuss adoption curves, block template decentralization, why nation-states should build mining infrastructure before buying Bitcoin reserves, lessons from the early PC revolution, and the coming energy race with AI and High-Performance Computing. ► If you got value, please like, comment, share, follow and support my work. Thank you! 00:00 – Coming Up 01:29 – Bob’s Background & His Long Tech Career 05:15 – Bob’s Patents & Innovations, Early Adopter Mindset 10:00 – Leap Frog Into New Tech Frontiers - AI & Bitcoin 14:00 – PC As Prerequisite For The Internet Revolution 17:00 – Good & Bad Actors 19:00 – Why Bob Chose Bitcoin Mining 21:10 – Bob’s Bitcoin Mining 101 Explanation 25:00 – Why Bitcoin & Barefoot Mining? 34:20 – Smaller Scale 0.5-5MW “Wild” Mining Sites Can Be As Cost Effective As Larger 50-200MW Sites 39:40 – Barefoot Mining Expansion 41:40 – The Energy Landscape and Bitcoin Mining 43:44 – Opportunities for Small-Scale Mining 46:39 – Meaning of HODL & Role of Citizens in Bitcoin 48:24 – Key Trends in Bitcoin, Inc. Template Creation 54:54 – Political Implications & Weaponization of Bitcoin Mining 1:00:54 – Economic Sovereignty through Mining 1:04:36 – The OP_Return Debate & Facilitating Change 1:12:06 – Bob’s Hope for the Future >>

🎙️The Wild Truth About Bitcoin Mining Ep. 92 with Bob Burnett My guest today is Bob Burnett, veteran technologist, former Gateway CTO, and now CEO of Barefoot Mining. From consumer tech pioneer with eight U.S. patents to leader in sovereign Bitcoin mining, Bob shares his vision for “wild mining,” where miners own their energy using innovative energy sources. He challenges the myth that mining is only for massive corporations, showing how small, strategically placed operations can be both profitable and decentralizing. We discuss adoption curves, block template decentralization, why nation-states should build mining infrastructure before buying Bitcoin reserves, lessons from the early PC revolution, and the coming energy race with AI and High-Performance Computing. ► If you got value, please like, comment, share, follow and support my work. Thank you! 00:00 – Coming Up 01:29 – Bob’s Background & His Long Tech Career 05:15 – Bob’s Patents & Innovations, Early Adopter Mindset 10:00 – Leap Frog Into New Tech Frontiers - AI & Bitcoin 14:00 – PC As Prerequisite For The Internet Revolution 17:00 – Good & Bad Actors 19:00 – Why Bob Chose Bitcoin Mining 21:10 – Bob’s Bitcoin Mining 101 Explanation 25:00 – Why Bitcoin & Barefoot Mining? 34:20 – Smaller Scale 0.5-5MW “Wild” Mining Sites Can Be As Cost Effective As Larger 50-200MW Sites 39:40 – Barefoot Mining Expansion 41:40 – The Energy Landscape and Bitcoin Mining 43:44 – Opportunities for Small-Scale Mining 46:39 – Meaning of HODL & Role of Citizens in Bitcoin 48:24 – Key Trends in Bitcoin, Inc. Template Creation 54:54 – Political Implications & Weaponization of Bitcoin Mining 1:00:54 – Economic Sovereignty through Mining 1:04:36 – The OP_Return Debate & Facilitating Change 1:12:06 – Bob’s Hope for the Future >>

Efrat Fenigson

43,066 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Elon Musk just said the AI community is misunderstanding the math of superintelligence by two orders of magnitude. Not slightly off. Not directionally wrong. A hundred times off. Musk: “Most people in the AI community don’t yet understand. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.” Everyone is focused on the hardware race. Bigger data centers. More GPUs. Nuclear power plants built to feed the compute. That’s half the equation. Musk: “I think we’re off by two orders of magnitude in terms of intelligence density per gigabyte. That’s just algorithmic improvement. Same computer.” Read that carefully. Not more hardware. Not more energy. Not more capital. The same machine. A hundred times smarter. Through software alone. That’s before the hardware improvements compound on top of it. Musk: “And the computers are getting better. That’s why I think it is a 10x improvement per year type thing. 1,000 percent.” A thousand percent compounding annual growth rate in raw intelligence. A system that becomes 10x more capable every twelve months doesn’t follow a linear curve. It doesn’t follow an exponential curve that human intuition can track. It follows a curve that human intuition cannot simulate at all. In year one it’s 10x smarter. In year two it’s 100x. In year three it’s 1,000x. At that point, the gap between that system and a human brain is wider than the gap between a human brain and a calculator. This is the math the public isn’t running. The models aren’t just getting better. They are compounding on themselves at a rate that makes every previous technology curve look flat. Musk: “The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.” We aren’t approaching superintelligence on the timeline most people imagine. We are already inside the curve.

Elon Musk just said the AI community is misunderstanding the math of superintelligence by two orders of magnitude. Not slightly off. Not directionally wrong. A hundred times off. Musk: “Most people in the AI community don’t yet understand. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.” Everyone is focused on the hardware race. Bigger data centers. More GPUs. Nuclear power plants built to feed the compute. That’s half the equation. Musk: “I think we’re off by two orders of magnitude in terms of intelligence density per gigabyte. That’s just algorithmic improvement. Same computer.” Read that carefully. Not more hardware. Not more energy. Not more capital. The same machine. A hundred times smarter. Through software alone. That’s before the hardware improvements compound on top of it. Musk: “And the computers are getting better. That’s why I think it is a 10x improvement per year type thing. 1,000 percent.” A thousand percent compounding annual growth rate in raw intelligence. A system that becomes 10x more capable every twelve months doesn’t follow a linear curve. It doesn’t follow an exponential curve that human intuition can track. It follows a curve that human intuition cannot simulate at all. In year one it’s 10x smarter. In year two it’s 100x. In year three it’s 1,000x. At that point, the gap between that system and a human brain is wider than the gap between a human brain and a calculator. This is the math the public isn’t running. The models aren’t just getting better. They are compounding on themselves at a rate that makes every previous technology curve look flat. Musk: “The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we’re currently experiencing.” We aren’t approaching superintelligence on the timeline most people imagine. We are already inside the curve.

Dustin

1,554,176 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

.Naval: “The opportunities have never been more equal than now. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have the same iPhone you do. They don’t have some better version of an iPhone. They’re eating food that might be marginally better than yours, but it’s basically the same. You might even have a better diet than them. You probably have more time to go to the gym than them. They’re not immortal, and they’re not going to be—most likely, not at this time scale. So you have more youth than them. You have a lot of advantages over them. The wealth gaps are actually much smaller than people think. A lot of that is due to mass production, which comes from specialization, labor, and capitalism. But it’s very easy to overlook that and agitate—because that gets you higher in the status hierarchy with other monkeys. It makes you look like you’re fighting for noble causes and gives you status, which is really what people are craving these days. They’re craving status, not money or wealth. And status is a zero-sum game. So it’s kind of an evil game to play because there have to be losers for every winner. And the only way to win is by crushing somebody else down.”

.Naval: “The opportunities have never been more equal than now. Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have the same iPhone you do. They don’t have some better version of an iPhone. They’re eating food that might be marginally better than yours, but it’s basically the same. You might even have a better diet than them. You probably have more time to go to the gym than them. They’re not immortal, and they’re not going to be—most likely, not at this time scale. So you have more youth than them. You have a lot of advantages over them. The wealth gaps are actually much smaller than people think. A lot of that is due to mass production, which comes from specialization, labor, and capitalism. But it’s very easy to overlook that and agitate—because that gets you higher in the status hierarchy with other monkeys. It makes you look like you’re fighting for noble causes and gives you status, which is really what people are craving these days. They’re craving status, not money or wealth. And status is a zero-sum game. So it’s kind of an evil game to play because there have to be losers for every winner. And the only way to win is by crushing somebody else down.”

Arjun Khemani

341,242 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce

Ray Kurzweil has been saying the same thing for 60 years and the world spent six decades calling him crazy and now every prediction he made is coming true ahead of schedule (Save this). At age 16, Kurzweil wrote a paper arguing that computing followed exponential growth. From 1939 to today, computing power increased 75 quadrillion fold in hardware alone and when you multiply that by roughly a million to one improvement in software, you get total computational gains that are functionally incomprehensible. This is the precise explanation for why large language models could not exist four years ago and do now. The jump from nothing to GPT-4 to reasoning models to agents happened in less time than it takes most companies to ship a product roadmap and that pace is still accelerating, not plateauing. Kurzweil's most striking observation is about Nvidia specifically. Nvidia's engineers are not looking at 1939 relay computers when they design their chips but when you plot the exponential growth curve, Nvidia's latest silicon lands on the exact same line as those 1939 relays, same slope, 87 years apart. The curve does not care what technology is enabling it. Relays gave way to vacuum tubes, to transistors, to integrated circuits, to GPUs, and now to custom AI accelerators and the rate of improvement has not deviated. Right now we are making approximately 10x the total computational gains per year, hardware and software multiplied together. The reason this moment is categorically different from any prior tech cycle is where we sit on the curve. Exponential growth is deceptive in its early stages, it looks almost linear when the numbers are small, which is why people keep underestimating it. Computing power per dollar has increased 11,200x since just 2005. We are now at the part of the curve where the doubling is happening on top of an already enormous base which means each new generation of AI capability is not marginally better, it is structurally different. Kurzweil made his AGI-by-2029 prediction in 1999 and was dismissed by the academic establishment. He carries an 86% documented prediction accuracy across 30 years of published forecasts. Today, the major AI labs have independently converged on the same timeline window because the curve forced them there.

Ray Kurzweil has been saying the same thing for 60 years and the world spent six decades calling him crazy and now every prediction he made is coming true ahead of schedule (Save this). At age 16, Kurzweil wrote a paper arguing that computing followed exponential growth. From 1939 to today, computing power increased 75 quadrillion fold in hardware alone and when you multiply that by roughly a million to one improvement in software, you get total computational gains that are functionally incomprehensible. This is the precise explanation for why large language models could not exist four years ago and do now. The jump from nothing to GPT-4 to reasoning models to agents happened in less time than it takes most companies to ship a product roadmap and that pace is still accelerating, not plateauing. Kurzweil's most striking observation is about Nvidia specifically. Nvidia's engineers are not looking at 1939 relay computers when they design their chips but when you plot the exponential growth curve, Nvidia's latest silicon lands on the exact same line as those 1939 relays, same slope, 87 years apart. The curve does not care what technology is enabling it. Relays gave way to vacuum tubes, to transistors, to integrated circuits, to GPUs, and now to custom AI accelerators and the rate of improvement has not deviated. Right now we are making approximately 10x the total computational gains per year, hardware and software multiplied together. The reason this moment is categorically different from any prior tech cycle is where we sit on the curve. Exponential growth is deceptive in its early stages, it looks almost linear when the numbers are small, which is why people keep underestimating it. Computing power per dollar has increased 11,200x since just 2005. We are now at the part of the curve where the doubling is happening on top of an already enormous base which means each new generation of AI capability is not marginally better, it is structurally different. Kurzweil made his AGI-by-2029 prediction in 1999 and was dismissed by the academic establishment. He carries an 86% documented prediction accuracy across 30 years of published forecasts. Today, the major AI labs have independently converged on the same timeline window because the curve forced them there.

Milk Road AI

177,725 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

TBPN

218,127 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨 SOMETHING BIG IS COMING Every Bitcoin bear cycle has left just 3 red candles on the 3-month chart 2018 → 3 red candles → bottom 2022 → 3 red candles → bottom 2025-2026 → 3 red candles (we're currently inside the 3rd one) Every cycle, most say this time is different and history won't repeat But that's how markets work The market is following the same rules once again And right now, we're sitting inside that 3rd red candle Do you realize what that means? We might be closer to the bottom than most people think Markets still follow the old rules I see a lot of people calling for a $30k bottom, but that feels almost impossible - the drop would be way too large Every cycle, the overall correction has become smaller and smaller That's why I don't think the bottom will be anywhere near $30k On top of that, there are barely any positive headlines right now, and this long bear market phase may finally be approaching its end The bottom will be found when most people are too scared to buy And years from now, everyone will call that moment obvious Even though it never was at the time I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important

🚨 SOMETHING BIG IS COMING Every Bitcoin bear cycle has left just 3 red candles on the 3-month chart 2018 → 3 red candles → bottom 2022 → 3 red candles → bottom 2025-2026 → 3 red candles (we're currently inside the 3rd one) Every cycle, most say this time is different and history won't repeat But that's how markets work The market is following the same rules once again And right now, we're sitting inside that 3rd red candle Do you realize what that means? We might be closer to the bottom than most people think Markets still follow the old rules I see a lot of people calling for a $30k bottom, but that feels almost impossible - the drop would be way too large Every cycle, the overall correction has become smaller and smaller That's why I don't think the bottom will be anywhere near $30k On top of that, there are barely any positive headlines right now, and this long bear market phase may finally be approaching its end The bottom will be found when most people are too scared to buy And years from now, everyone will call that moment obvious Even though it never was at the time I've said this before, and everything is still playing out exactly according to plan Turn on notifications. If you're not following me yet, you might realize later that it was a mistake because I warned you Bookmark this. The next phase is gonna be very important

Leni

91,936 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

EP-386 with Delhi CM Rekha Gupta premieres today at 7 PM IST | Promo “Pollution is a legacy problem caused by the carelessness of previous governments.” “The BJP-led Delhi government has increased bio-mining from 5,000 to 30,000 metric tonnes.” “Kejriwal is out on bail. That does not mean the charges have been dropped.” “Toilets will be upgraded and cleaned for the people of Delhi within the next year.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIPodcast #SmitaPrakash #RekhaGupta #Delhi #Pollution #Health

EP-386 with Delhi CM Rekha Gupta premieres today at 7 PM IST | Promo “Pollution is a legacy problem caused by the carelessness of previous governments.” “The BJP-led Delhi government has increased bio-mining from 5,000 to 30,000 metric tonnes.” “Kejriwal is out on bail. That does not mean the charges have been dropped.” “Toilets will be upgraded and cleaned for the people of Delhi within the next year.” Tap 'notify me' to get episode alerts: #ANIPodcast #SmitaPrakash #RekhaGupta #Delhi #Pollution #Health

ANI

22,412 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

🚨 WARNING: SPACEX IS FOLLOWING NVIDIA PATTERN IN 1999!! Same setup. Different decade. Nvidia IPO'd on hype, ran hard, then flushed. Retail panicked and walked away calling it a failed trade. Forums were full of people explaining why it was worthless. Then institutions loaded the quiet zone nobody was watching. Then Nvidia ran 50x. SpaceX is running the identical sequence right now. Peak, flush, retail obituaries, accumulation, real move. The people selling at $147 are the same people who sold Nvidia at $4 and spent the next decade watching from the sidelines. This is not the end of SpaceX. This is the part of the chart that separates the people who make generational money From the people who need the move to be obvious before they act. Day 1 buyers who chased thehype at $227 are getting punished. That's how it works, that's how it has always worked. The patient buyer waits for the fear to peak, loads in the silence. And doesn't need validation from the crowd because the chart already told the story. Fear is peaking right now. I will keep you updated on everything here When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my followers can save their money Many will regret not following me earlier...

🚨 WARNING: SPACEX IS FOLLOWING NVIDIA PATTERN IN 1999!! Same setup. Different decade. Nvidia IPO'd on hype, ran hard, then flushed. Retail panicked and walked away calling it a failed trade. Forums were full of people explaining why it was worthless. Then institutions loaded the quiet zone nobody was watching. Then Nvidia ran 50x. SpaceX is running the identical sequence right now. Peak, flush, retail obituaries, accumulation, real move. The people selling at $147 are the same people who sold Nvidia at $4 and spent the next decade watching from the sidelines. This is not the end of SpaceX. This is the part of the chart that separates the people who make generational money From the people who need the move to be obvious before they act. Day 1 buyers who chased thehype at $227 are getting punished. That's how it works, that's how it has always worked. The patient buyer waits for the fear to peak, loads in the silence. And doesn't need validation from the crowd because the chart already told the story. Fear is peaking right now. I will keep you updated on everything here When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my followers can save their money Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

80,811 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Elon Musk: At Tesla, we basically had two different chip programs: one Dojo and one. Dojo on the training side, and then what we call AI4, it's just our inference chip The AI4 is what's currently shipping in all vehicles, and we're finalizing the design of AI5, which will be an immense jump from AI4. By some metrics, the improvement in AI5 will be 40 times better than AI4. So not 40%, 40 times This is because we work so closely at a very fine-grained level on the AI software and the AI hardware. So we know exactly where the limiting factors are. And so effectively the AI hardware and software teams are co-designing the chip Compared to the worst limitation on AI4, which is running the SoftMax operation, we currently have to run SoftMax in around 40 steps in emulation mode, whereas that'll just be done in a few steps natively in AI5 AI5 will also be able to easily handle mixed precision models, so you don't have it, it'll dynamically handle mixed precision. There's a bunch of sort of technical stuff that AI5 will do a lot better In terms of nominal raw compute, it's eight times more compute, about nine times more memory, and roughly five times more memory bandwidth But because we're addressing some core limitations in AI4, you multiply that 8x compute improvement by another 5x improvement because of optimization at a very fine-grained silicon level of things that are currently suboptimal in AI4, that's where you get the 40x improvement

Elon Musk: At Tesla, we basically had two different chip programs: one Dojo and one. Dojo on the training side, and then what we call AI4, it's just our inference chip The AI4 is what's currently shipping in all vehicles, and we're finalizing the design of AI5, which will be an immense jump from AI4. By some metrics, the improvement in AI5 will be 40 times better than AI4. So not 40%, 40 times This is because we work so closely at a very fine-grained level on the AI software and the AI hardware. So we know exactly where the limiting factors are. And so effectively the AI hardware and software teams are co-designing the chip Compared to the worst limitation on AI4, which is running the SoftMax operation, we currently have to run SoftMax in around 40 steps in emulation mode, whereas that'll just be done in a few steps natively in AI5 AI5 will also be able to easily handle mixed precision models, so you don't have it, it'll dynamically handle mixed precision. There's a bunch of sort of technical stuff that AI5 will do a lot better In terms of nominal raw compute, it's eight times more compute, about nine times more memory, and roughly five times more memory bandwidth But because we're addressing some core limitations in AI4, you multiply that 8x compute improvement by another 5x improvement because of optimization at a very fine-grained silicon level of things that are currently suboptimal in AI4, that's where you get the 40x improvement

X Freeze

21,224,667 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! Bitcoin dump is just getting started. And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom. My target for the bottom: $50,000. Let me explain: The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022. In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K. That was a -42% move. Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again. BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K. That is only -26% so far. Halfway through the same pattern. The market is following the same chart. Same cross. Same direction. And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below. That is exactly why my target is $50,000. This is not random price action. This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022. Most people think the bottom is close. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING THIS MONDAY!! Bitcoin dump is just getting started. And $BTC now follows the path to the market cycle bottom. My target for the bottom: $50,000. Let me explain: The Bitcoin CME Death Cross is playing out exactly as 2022. In 2022, after the Death Cross, BTC dumped from $30K to $17K. That was a -42% move. Now in 2026, the same structure is appearing again. BTC already dumped from $83K to $60K. That is only -26% so far. Halfway through the same pattern. The market is following the same chart. Same cross. Same direction. And if this pattern completes like 2022, the next major level is still below. That is exactly why my target is $50,000. This is not random price action. This is the same Death Cross setup that destroyed the market in 2022. Most people think the bottom is close. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

43,617 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"If you want tons of embarrassingly parallel inference running all the same models, running future models that get bigger or smaller, we think we're going to be perfect for lots of that." Panthalassa's Garth Sheldon-Coulson, who just announced a $140M B round led by Peter Thiel to build wave-powered data centers in the ocean, explains the concept in detail: "The typical node will be on the order of 500 kW. One rack to multiple racks depending on density." "They can talk to each other sideways — we'll have radio — and they'll be talking to satellites." "So we're building this grid. And it's not for synchronous training. This is not fiber between everything." "If you want tons of embarrassingly parallel inference running all the same models, running future models that get bigger or smaller, we think we're going to be perfect for lots of that." "The way that we see this going is, once the energy starts to crash through what's available in the grid, it all just becomes about who can actually build in an elastic fashion to make 10 GW, 100 GW." "100 GW per year is the kind of thing we're getting asked to do, so that's the framework that we want to build. Just pure manufacturing to get energy capacity out there."

"If you want tons of embarrassingly parallel inference running all the same models, running future models that get bigger or smaller, we think we're going to be perfect for lots of that." Panthalassa's Garth Sheldon-Coulson, who just announced a $140M B round led by Peter Thiel to build wave-powered data centers in the ocean, explains the concept in detail: "The typical node will be on the order of 500 kW. One rack to multiple racks depending on density." "They can talk to each other sideways — we'll have radio — and they'll be talking to satellites." "So we're building this grid. And it's not for synchronous training. This is not fiber between everything." "If you want tons of embarrassingly parallel inference running all the same models, running future models that get bigger or smaller, we think we're going to be perfect for lots of that." "The way that we see this going is, once the energy starts to crash through what's available in the grid, it all just becomes about who can actually build in an elastic fashion to make 10 GW, 100 GW." "100 GW per year is the kind of thing we're getting asked to do, so that's the framework that we want to build. Just pure manufacturing to get energy capacity out there."

TBPN

35,208 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

🚨 BITCOIN JUST CONFIRMED THE NEXT DUMP BELOW $60K After losing $64K support, we're following the break pattern perfectly and Bitcoin will dump to $52,000 in 40 days. $64K → $58K → $52K → $48K If you think the bear market is over I have some bad news for you. The crowd thinks the same. When it happens chart goes EXACTLY in opposite direction. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 BITCOIN JUST CONFIRMED THE NEXT DUMP BELOW $60K After losing $64K support, we're following the break pattern perfectly and Bitcoin will dump to $52,000 in 40 days. $64K → $58K → $52K → $48K If you think the bear market is over I have some bad news for you. The crowd thinks the same. When it happens chart goes EXACTLY in opposite direction. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

117,642 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Read this carefully before buying stocks like $SPCX. S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. The crowd thinks they are buying a resilient index. In reality, they are holding a ticking time bomb. And Big Tech is the one lighting the fuse. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are no longer cash machines. Now they are just massive factories drowning in debt. By end of 2026, every cent of profit burns on chips and data centers. Even worse: their own billions aren't enough anymore. Big Tech borrowing exploded 357% in a single year. They are literally begging the market for cash. Why? This is pure FOMO. They're buried in debt for infrastructure that may never turn a profit. If AI doesn't fix productivity, this will be the most expensive bubble in history. And when this bubble bursts, it won't just hit tech. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Read this carefully before buying stocks like $SPCX. S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. The crowd thinks they are buying a resilient index. In reality, they are holding a ticking time bomb. And Big Tech is the one lighting the fuse. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are no longer cash machines. Now they are just massive factories drowning in debt. By end of 2026, every cent of profit burns on chips and data centers. Even worse: their own billions aren't enough anymore. Big Tech borrowing exploded 357% in a single year. They are literally begging the market for cash. Why? This is pure FOMO. They're buried in debt for infrastructure that may never turn a profit. If AI doesn't fix productivity, this will be the most expensive bubble in history. And when this bubble bursts, it won't just hit tech. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

42,675 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Sam Altman and Jony Ive are basically building the iPhone moment of AI. And it’s coming way sooner than anyone expected. Their new interview is pure future energy. This isn’t two random tech guys talking. This is the CEO of OpenAI and the man who made the iPhone iconic. And together they’re teasing a new family of AI hardware devices, with the first one called IO. Think personal AI companion instead of another glowing rectangle. Here’s the core idea, distilled: • Right now we live in “Times Square Mode.” Everything blinks, pings, screams for attention. Every app wants a piece of your brain. Focus is basically an endangered species. • IO is meant to be the cabin by the lake. A device with an AI that actually understands your context, knows when to speak, knows when to stay quiet, and filters the world for you. • Total awareness instead of total distraction. A system that doesn’t hijack your nervous system but gives you mental freedom back. • And the timeline. Ive straight up says it’s not five years away. Not even two. Less. The future of AI will not live inside your phone. It’s about to get its own bodies, its own shapes, its own interfaces. And IO is likely the first step. The next big leap is arriving faster than anyone can process.

Sam Altman and Jony Ive are basically building the iPhone moment of AI. And it’s coming way sooner than anyone expected. Their new interview is pure future energy. This isn’t two random tech guys talking. This is the CEO of OpenAI and the man who made the iPhone iconic. And together they’re teasing a new family of AI hardware devices, with the first one called IO. Think personal AI companion instead of another glowing rectangle. Here’s the core idea, distilled: • Right now we live in “Times Square Mode.” Everything blinks, pings, screams for attention. Every app wants a piece of your brain. Focus is basically an endangered species. • IO is meant to be the cabin by the lake. A device with an AI that actually understands your context, knows when to speak, knows when to stay quiet, and filters the world for you. • Total awareness instead of total distraction. A system that doesn’t hijack your nervous system but gives you mental freedom back. • And the timeline. Ive straight up says it’s not five years away. Not even two. Less. The future of AI will not live inside your phone. It’s about to get its own bodies, its own shapes, its own interfaces. And IO is likely the first step. The next big leap is arriving faster than anyone can process.

VraserX e/acc

48,359 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Dario Amodei says AI improving itself is not a moment that is coming, and he put Anthropic's internal number on how fast it is already happening: "I don't think it's a moment in time. I think it's a continuous process. We're already seeing it in some ways, where the AI is able to suggest architectures for the next AI." "I would say a year ago we were seeing 10 to 15% kind of increase in total factor productivity due to AI. Like, that's probably up to 20 or 30% now. It might be doubling. Like, as with all things, we're on the exponential." "There's no moment where AI improves itself or runs out of control or becomes unsafe. What we have is an accelerating exponential. And at each point on the exponential we have to assess, is this a time to slow down? Is this a time to put more controls on this technology? I think more and more of that is going to be required." "But I think the Rosetta Stone to all of this is the smooth exponential." "I think there's an object lesson in the people who were against all AI regulation and then they saw one thing and they wanted to nationalize. I think there's an object lesson in the people who dismissed the power of AI and then said, oh my God, it's improving itself. It's running out of control. We have to shut it all down. Yo-yoing between those extreme reactions is incredibly unhelpful as a response to this technology." "The right response, the wise response, is to say, we're not going to panic. Our countermeasures will smoothly ratchet up with the power of the technology. If you see someone having this kind of crazy yo-yo reaction, that's a sign that they were caught by surprise and that they're not serious." - Dario Amodei (Dario Amodei), CEO of Anthropic, on The Circuit with Emily Chang (Bloomberg Originals).

Dario Amodei says AI improving itself is not a moment that is coming, and he put Anthropic's internal number on how fast it is already happening: "I don't think it's a moment in time. I think it's a continuous process. We're already seeing it in some ways, where the AI is able to suggest architectures for the next AI." "I would say a year ago we were seeing 10 to 15% kind of increase in total factor productivity due to AI. Like, that's probably up to 20 or 30% now. It might be doubling. Like, as with all things, we're on the exponential." "There's no moment where AI improves itself or runs out of control or becomes unsafe. What we have is an accelerating exponential. And at each point on the exponential we have to assess, is this a time to slow down? Is this a time to put more controls on this technology? I think more and more of that is going to be required." "But I think the Rosetta Stone to all of this is the smooth exponential." "I think there's an object lesson in the people who were against all AI regulation and then they saw one thing and they wanted to nationalize. I think there's an object lesson in the people who dismissed the power of AI and then said, oh my God, it's improving itself. It's running out of control. We have to shut it all down. Yo-yoing between those extreme reactions is incredibly unhelpful as a response to this technology." "The right response, the wise response, is to say, we're not going to panic. Our countermeasures will smoothly ratchet up with the power of the technology. If you see someone having this kind of crazy yo-yo reaction, that's a sign that they were caught by surprise and that they're not serious." - Dario Amodei (Dario Amodei), CEO of Anthropic, on The Circuit with Emily Chang (Bloomberg Originals).

Karl Mehta

50,718 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

The intelligence we are building is not artificial. It never was. Microsoft Chief Scientific Officer Eric Horvitz just reframed the entire foundation of the AI arms race with one sentence. The tech industry calls it Artificial Intelligence. That word is wrong. Horvitz: “I don’t actually like the term artificial intelligence. I wish the field was called computational intelligence because I think it applies to biological nervous systems as well as machines, and together we can go far.” We are not building a digital imitation of the human brain. We are scaling the exact same computational physics that created biological awareness and transferring it into silicon. Your mind and a massive AI data center run on the same underlying rules. The transition isn’t artificial. It is universal. And here is where it gets deeply unsettling. Tech optimists always fall back on the same comfort. Humans hold the steering wheel. Our values guide the machine. Horvitz acknowledges this. Horvitz: “We’ll take a humanistic standpoint here, always being on top of things and guiding with our values and our preferences and our goals.” Then the caveat that changes everything. Horvitz: “As much as they might be shaped over time by the machines we work with.” You cannot interact with a superintelligence at scale without it quietly rewiring your psychological baseline. The values you use to command the machine will be shaped by the machine you are commanding. The frameworks you use to perceive reality will be constructed by the system you believe you are directing. That feedback loop started the moment you asked an AI what to think about something. Most people haven’t noticed yet. Horvitz: “I think in our own lifetimes we will all experience incredible breakthroughs in understanding biology, with applications in medicine, in healthcare, that will be named as AI breakthroughs.” Horvitz: “It’s gonna accelerate over the next 10 to 15 years.” Because biological systems and machine networks both operate on computational intelligence, a sufficiently advanced AI can solve the human body like a math equation. The architects who win the next decade will not just control the digital economy. They will control the physical building blocks of life itself. The line between silicon and carbon was always an illusion. And once humanity fully realizes that, the question of whether we are using the intelligence or it is using us becomes impossible to answer. Because by then, we will be the same thing.

The intelligence we are building is not artificial. It never was. Microsoft Chief Scientific Officer Eric Horvitz just reframed the entire foundation of the AI arms race with one sentence. The tech industry calls it Artificial Intelligence. That word is wrong. Horvitz: “I don’t actually like the term artificial intelligence. I wish the field was called computational intelligence because I think it applies to biological nervous systems as well as machines, and together we can go far.” We are not building a digital imitation of the human brain. We are scaling the exact same computational physics that created biological awareness and transferring it into silicon. Your mind and a massive AI data center run on the same underlying rules. The transition isn’t artificial. It is universal. And here is where it gets deeply unsettling. Tech optimists always fall back on the same comfort. Humans hold the steering wheel. Our values guide the machine. Horvitz acknowledges this. Horvitz: “We’ll take a humanistic standpoint here, always being on top of things and guiding with our values and our preferences and our goals.” Then the caveat that changes everything. Horvitz: “As much as they might be shaped over time by the machines we work with.” You cannot interact with a superintelligence at scale without it quietly rewiring your psychological baseline. The values you use to command the machine will be shaped by the machine you are commanding. The frameworks you use to perceive reality will be constructed by the system you believe you are directing. That feedback loop started the moment you asked an AI what to think about something. Most people haven’t noticed yet. Horvitz: “I think in our own lifetimes we will all experience incredible breakthroughs in understanding biology, with applications in medicine, in healthcare, that will be named as AI breakthroughs.” Horvitz: “It’s gonna accelerate over the next 10 to 15 years.” Because biological systems and machine networks both operate on computational intelligence, a sufficiently advanced AI can solve the human body like a math equation. The architects who win the next decade will not just control the digital economy. They will control the physical building blocks of life itself. The line between silicon and carbon was always an illusion. And once humanity fully realizes that, the question of whether we are using the intelligence or it is using us becomes impossible to answer. Because by then, we will be the same thing.

Dustin

164,255 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

i built a full game on a single GPU with a 3B model and this is the worst local AI will ever be. this was supposed to be a benchmark test. load the model, measure tokens per second, write it up, move on. instead i spent 20 minutes playing Octopus Invaders because the game is genuinely fun and i couldn't stop. a model with 3B active parameters built this from a single prompt. it debugged its own collision system when bullets were phasing through enemies. read the error, found the fix, kept building. this is not a frontier API. this is a quantized open source model running on hardware you can buy used for $800-$1200. no cloud. no subscription. no API costs. just a mass produced consumer GPU doing things that would have been absurd 12 months ago. and here's the part that should keep you up at night: every month the models get smaller and smarter. the quants get tighter. the context windows get longer. the tooling gets cleaner. what 3B active parameters does today on 24gb, a 1B model will do on 8gb within a year. you are looking at the floor. not the ceiling.

i built a full game on a single GPU with a 3B model and this is the worst local AI will ever be. this was supposed to be a benchmark test. load the model, measure tokens per second, write it up, move on. instead i spent 20 minutes playing Octopus Invaders because the game is genuinely fun and i couldn't stop. a model with 3B active parameters built this from a single prompt. it debugged its own collision system when bullets were phasing through enemies. read the error, found the fix, kept building. this is not a frontier API. this is a quantized open source model running on hardware you can buy used for $800-$1200. no cloud. no subscription. no API costs. just a mass produced consumer GPU doing things that would have been absurd 12 months ago. and here's the part that should keep you up at night: every month the models get smaller and smarter. the quants get tighter. the context windows get longer. the tooling gets cleaner. what 3B active parameters does today on 24gb, a 1B model will do on 8gb within a year. you are looking at the floor. not the ceiling.

Sudo su

36,251 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce