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Competition among tech giants spans four critical dimensions: technology, finance, branding, and talent. TSMC recently released a video from its Arizona fab highlighting ASML EUV machines printing next-generation chips. However, this move is by no means cost-efficient for TSMC; it serves primarily as a geopolitically motivated brand stunt. Currently,...

10,100 просмотров • 28 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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WHAT IF CHINA INVADES TAIWAN + Strait of Hormuz STAYS CLOSED🛑 Nobody is connecting these dots yet Taiwan makes 90% of the world's most advanced chips. TSMC manufactures for EVERY major tech company on the planet. If those fabs go dark, this isn't a dip. This is a STRUCTURAL COLLAPSE. Stocks that get DESTROYED 👇 Semiconductors. $TSM, $NVDA, $AMD, $AAPL, $QCOM, $AVGO, $ASML. Every single one depends on TSMC to make their chips. There is NO backup. Nvidia can't make GPUs. Apple can't make iPhones. AMD can't make processors. Full stop. The AI boom DIES overnight. $MSFT, $AMZN, $GOOG, $META. Every data center buildout, every model training run, every hyperscaler capex plan depends on chips that ONLY TSMC can produce at scale. Their entire growth thesis is GONE. Consumer and shipping. $DELL, $HPQ, Sony all lose their chip supply. The Taiwan Strait carries 50% of global container shipping. $ZIM, $FDX, $UPS all get crushed by the blockade. NOW here's where it gets interesting Stocks that BENEFIT 👇 Defense. $LMT, $RTX, $NOC, $GD, $LHX, $PLTR. Spending goes VERTICAL overnight. Domestic chips. $INTC becomes the most important company in America as the ONLY Western advanced fab. $GFS, $AMAT, $LRCX, $KLAC all surge as we scramble to build domestic capacity. Safe havens. $XOM, $CVX on the oil spike. $GLD, $SLV on the flight to safety. $AA on the aluminum supply chain chaos. THE PART NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT Taiwan doesn't just make chips for tech. They produce 35% of ALL chips globally. Cars. Medical devices. Military equipment. Appliances. A Taiwan invasion doesn't crash the stock market. It crashes the GLOBAL ECONOMY. This is not a prediction. But if you're not thinking about this risk while the Strait of Hormuz is ALREADY shut down and semiconductors are ALREADY under pressure from helium shortages, you're not paying attention.

JEFE TRADES 🔪

222,056 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🧵Taiwan🇹🇼: From Silicon Shield to Dollar Colony 1/ Bloomberg just reported: “Taiwan’s Markets Shaken as Currency Surges Most Since 1980s.” Sound familiar? This isn’t just a market story. It’s a geopolitical trap—one that echoes the Plaza Accord that wrecked Japan.👇 2/ Let’s break this down. The NT dollar just surged at the fastest rate since the 1980s. Why does this matter? Because the last time this happened, it was engineered by the U.S. Back then, Japan was forced to revalue the yen—and it paid the price for decades. 3/ 📉 Currency surges = exports become uncompetitive 📈 Hot money floods in = asset bubbles inflate 💣 Manufacturing base weakens 🎭 All while politicians pretend it’s “market confidence” It’s not confidence. It’s strategic financial manipulation. 4/ Now Taiwan faces the same setup. While Lai’s administration is eager to please Trump on tariffs, Taiwan is already giving in on another front: its currency. This is a familiar playbook: America offers “support” in exchange for economic control. 5/ Meanwhile, Taiwan’s most valuable asset—TSMC—is being dismantled piece by piece. 🇺🇸 Relocating chip production to Arizona 💸 Burning billions on inefficient U.S. fabs 🔒 Facing export controls from its “partner” How’s that for a “win”? 6/ Let’s be clear: This is not partnership. This is colonization—through capital flows, technology transfer, and political pressure. Taiwan wanted protection. What it got was dependency. 7/ Taiwan’s leadership thinks it’s buying protection from China. In reality, it’s selling out its economy to Washington—just like Japan did in the 1980s. No trade leverage. No monetary independence. No industrial policy of its own. Just a new vassal state under the dollar system. 8/ History doesn’t repeat—but it rhymes. Japan was the first victim of Plaza Accord-style containment. Now Taiwan is next. First they take your chips. Then they take your currency. Finally, they own your economy. 9/ Washington doesn’t need to sign another Plaza Accord. It just needs: ✔️ A compliant government ✔️ Capital control via Wall Street ✔️ Narrative dominance in global media Taiwan checked all three. 10/ Ask yourself: Why is Taiwan’s currency surging while its manufacturing is under pressure? Why is TSMC being gutted while Lai negotiates tariffs with Trump? Because this is not protection—it’s strategic capture. 📉 The Silicon Shield is becoming a Dollar Cage. —End—

𝘊𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘦

41,119 просмотров • 1 год назад

Many still don’t understand why Elon is building Terafab Terafab is an extension to all the chip makers in the world It’s not about replacement, not a rivalry and absolutely not competing It’s being built to fulfill the massive chip orders that Tesla, SpaceX and xAI actually need TSMC’s most advanced 2nm capacity is totally booked through 2028 Tesla signed a massive $16.5 billion deal with Samsung back in July 2025 to produce AI6 chips at their Taylor, Texas factory and Samsung is building a Tesla Exclusive chip manufacturing plant to full fill this orders When Elon announced Terafab on March 21, 2026...he made it clear: “That rate is much less than we’d like. We either build the Terafab or we don’t have the chips, and we need the chips, so we build the Terafab” He basically told the chip makers: “Produce as much as you comfortably can. We will take them all. Actually we want even more” Even today Elon said: "SpaceX/Tesla will be always be major customers of TSMC and not competitors in the normal sense of the word" Current production rates are much less than they need....That’s why Terafab exists Terafab is an extension to every chip maker… not competition, not rivalry, absolutely not Even Intel has joined as a partner Even if chip supply improves, massive bottlenecks still exist with memory and advanced packaging You simply can't risk those supply chain breaks at this scale That’s why Terafab is being built to vertically integrate everything - chips, memory, advanced packaging all under one roof, targeting 1 terawatt of AI compute capacity per year This is a ludicrous amount of chips that no chipmaker currently produces at this scale. I don't think even TSMC and Samsung truly understand these numbers yet It’s about building the capacity the future actually demands

X Freeze

53,291 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

I Don’t Even Know What To Say Anymore Pima County, Arizona is running an illegal migrant aid program funded through FEMA money. Providing shelter, goods & transportation to their next destinations Reminder there was ESSENTIALLY NO FEMA MONEY available for the Maui Fire Victims “At border towns in Arizona may be dealing with a new immigration problem. Pima County received $12,000,000 from FEMA in 2023. With these funds, city officials and nongovernmental organizations have been providing transportation and shelters to asylum seekers until they get to their next destination.” NEW: Pima County and Arizona are requesting FEMA money for asylum seeker aid programs Pima County has been running an aid program for asylum seekers and migrants released by the Border Patrol across southern Arizona to pursue immigration cases in the U.S. since 2019. Pima County and the state of Arizona are submitting new applications this week for the next round of federal funding for asylum seeker care programs. Pima County has been running an aid program for asylum seekers and migrants released by the Border Patrol across southern Arizona to pursue immigration cases in the U.S. since 2019. It is largely funded through a FEMA program that Pima county and others apply to get a share of throughout the year. The county received almost $22 million from FEMA in April. Arizona Congress Rep Grijalva says now they likely have enough funds to take the program at least through the end of 2024. The latest funding request is due this month and Grijalva says whatever money they're awarded will be used to keep the program afloat next year and ensure resources make it to Pima County.

Wall Street Apes

207,166 просмотров • 2 лет назад

ELON MUSK: We believe the AI5 chip will be roughly comparable performance to an NVIDIA Blackwell, and at much less than 10% of the cost Transcription: I'm super hardcore on chips right now as you may be able to tell. I have chips on the brain. I dream about chips, Literally! Because in order to have a functional robot, you have to have a great AI chip. And it needs to be an inexpensive chip and it needs to be very power efficient So we think we believe the AI5 chip will be probably about a third of the power of say something like a Blackwell, an NVIDIA Blackwell, which is a great chip, for roughly comparable performance. And much less than 10% of the cost. This is a chip that is very much optimized for the Tesla AI software stack. So it's not meant to be a general purpose chip, it's meant to be an amazing chip for the Tesla AI software And I mean a couple of things that I think make... like how is Tesla able to achieve such an improvement? I think it is because we are specialized. We're not trying to... you know, NVIDIA has to serve the superset of all past and future customers. So all of their requirements, all of the software that they've written has to work, which is a very difficult problem. Whereas we just need to make it work for our software. And so we're able to simplify the chip dramatically And then we also, I think we're unique in this, but like we have an integer-based system. And integer operations are fundamentally more efficient than floating point operations. So we can do floating point, but the vast majority of our inference is done in integer. Which is, if you're familiar with sort of logic gates, the simplicity of integer... it's integer is much more power efficient, much more silicon efficient, but you have to, you actually have to train for integer inference, which everyone else is training for floating point. That's kind of like a niche technical detail, but it's actually very important. So, yeah, this is going to be a great chip So this chip will be made in basically in four places: TSMC Taiwan, Samsung Korea, TSMC Arizona, and TSMC Texas. And we already know what improvements to make for AI6. So I'm hopeful that we can within less than a year of AI5 starting production, we can actually transition in the same fab to AI6 and double all of the performance metrics

X Freeze

305,109 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

America invented the semiconductor. Then regulated it off its own soil. Then spent $280 billion trying to bring it back. Marc Andreessen just laid out the most expensive own goal in industrial history. Andreessen: “40 years ago all the chips were made in California. Why are all the chips made in Taiwan? Because in California, the regulations got set so that you couldn’t make chips in California anymore.” Rogan: “What regulations specifically stop them from being able to manufacture…” Andreessen: “Environmental.” Silicon Valley no longer manufactures silicon. One word gutted the most critical supply chain on Earth. California didn’t lose chip manufacturing to a competitor. It buried the industry in paperwork until it all relocated to an island 100 miles off the coast of China. Andreessen: “And now we have to figure out what to do if China invades Taiwan.” The bureaucracy successfully protected the local groundwater by accidentally manufacturing the coordinates for a global conflict. That is the operating logic of the regulatory state. Strangle. Export. Let the consequences compound for decades. Then position yourself as the only solution to the crisis you manufactured. Regulation never eliminates risk. It relocates it. America traded a fixable problem at a California fab for the possibility of losing every advanced chip in a single afternoon. The administrative class chose paper safety over physical resilience. They would rather watch an industry die under their jurisdiction than see it innovate outside their control. But the regulatory class miscalculated something fundamental. Our vulnerabilities are not a law of physics. They are an artificial choice. And artificial choices get reversed. You cannot secure the future with bits alone. You have to move atoms. The era of exporting survival to protect a bureaucracy is ending. The country that cannot build what it invented has already lost the war it is trying to prevent.

Dustin

60,817 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Elon Musk just told the world his plan to own the one thing every AI on Earth depends on. The silicon. The entire AI industry is fighting over the same layer. Models. Parameters. Data. Benchmarks. All of it runs on chips none of them produce. Every frontier lab on the planet is building intelligence on a foundation they do not control, in a country they cannot influence, on an island they could not defend. Musk: “You design a chip, you fabricate the chip, you test the chip, you redesign the chip, and you fabricate it again. All under one roof.” That’s the Terafab. One building in Austin, Texas. No wafers shipped across the Pacific. No six-month tape-out cycles. No single point of geopolitical failure sitting in the Taiwan Strait. Total vertical sovereignty over silicon. But sovereignty is not the endgame. Sovereignty is what makes the endgame possible. Speed. Every fab on Earth optimizes for yield. For cost. For predictable output at massive scale. The Terafab optimizes for one variable only. Learning speed. That distinction will define the next era of compute. When your iteration cycle compresses from months to days, perfection on the first attempt becomes irrelevant. What matters is how fast you reach the fiftieth. That is the exact principle that made SpaceX untouchable. They did not build a superior rocket on the first try. They built a system where failure was cheap and iteration was relentless. And that system produced something no one else could match. Now transplant that into semiconductors. Musk: “New physics. Wild and crazy things.” He is not trying to out-manufacture TSMC. He is trying to make TSMC’s entire model a relic of a slower era. TSMC cannot take radical bets on unproven architecture. Their customers demand predictability. Their margins demand stability. Their entire empire is built on perfecting what already works. Elon’s model is built on trying what has never worked. Repeatedly. At near-zero cost. Until it does. When the cost of failure approaches zero, breakthroughs stop being accidents. They become mathematically inevitable. Now add the layer that makes this permanent. xAI builds frontier AI. That AI assists in chip design. Better chips accelerate the AI. Faster AI designs better chips. That is not a production line. That is a compounding feedback loop with no external dependency. And nobody else on Earth can run it. Intel has fabs but no frontier AI. NVIDIA designs but does not fabricate. TSMC fabricates but does not design. Google designs but outsources production. Every one of them has a structural gap they cannot close. Elon is closing his. The AI that architects the chip. The fab that forges it. The vehicles and robots that run on it. The data they generate. The AI that trains on that data to design the next generation. Full circle. No seams. No permission required from any government, company, or supply chain on Earth. That is not a factory. That is a self-improving system with a physical body. A structure that manufactures upgrades to its own capacity to think. That has never existed before. Not as a concept. Not as a metaphor. As a building. Every era of human civilization was defined by whoever mastered its most critical substrate. Land built empires. Iron built armies. Oil built superpowers. The next substrate is compute. And a single facility in Austin is being designed to produce it in a closed loop that no competitor can replicate, no government can embargo, and no market force can interrupt. That is not a factory announcement. That is the foundation of the first self-reinforcing intelligence monopoly in the history of this species. And the loop only needs to start once.

Dustin

47,567 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

SITUATION EXPLAINED: A Chinese state-backed company started mass-producing DUV lithography tools, a step below EUV but still significant. • ASML shares fell as much as 6.5%, their lowest since early June, after The Information reported a Shanghai-based, state-backed company began mass-producing immersion DUV lithography machines • The company is Shanghai Yuliangsheng, with ties to Huawei and the SiCarrier equipment group, it brought together immersion DUV development teams from other Chinese firms • Plans call for 5 tools this year and 20 next year, with confirmed customers SMIC, CXMT, and Hua Hong Semiconductor • Real caveat: SMIC has actually been trialing this tool since September 2025, and active mass production isn't targeted until 2027 at the earliest • Independent analysis from the AI Futures Project puts commercial-scale Chinese immersion DUV in the mid-2030s, with ASML still holding 98.7% of the immersion lithography market • Chinese chipmakers are currently only allowed to buy ASML's older DUV tools, not its cutting-edge EUV machines • The MATCH Act, moving through Congress, would widen restrictions specifically on immersion DUV equipment • China is separately developing its own domestic EUV machine, but that project remains at the prototype stage and is likely years away from producing working chips • Nikon and Canon are the only other established DUV/lithography vendors outside ASML, alongside SMEE as another Chinese domestic challenger Theo Jaffee: "Someone has to own the bottom of the market. Chinese DUV would be the same thing for ASML. The frontier leading-edge chip fabs will still be using ASML EUV machines, but less leading-edge fabs would use DUV machines, like, for example, it would be really helpful for Huawei."

MTS

16,220 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

.Dylan Patel lays out how we know the hard upper bound on how much compute can be produced annually by 2030: around 200 GW/year. That’s a crazy number (there’s about 20 GW of AI deployed in the world right now), but it’s nowhere near enough to satisfy Sam/Elon/Dario/Demis’s ambitions. Lots of things in the supply chain can be scaled up over 4 years, including things that other people think are bottlenecks, like datacenter power or fab clean room space. But the thing that’s inflexible over that timeline is the number of EUV tools. Dylan forecasts that production of ASML’s EUV tools will scale from 60 per year now to about 100 per year by the end of the decade - which means something like 700 total machines running in 2030. For a fab to make a GW worth of the Rubin chips that NVIDIA is deploying later this year, it needs to make 55,000 3nm wafers, 6,000 5nm wafers, and 170,000 memory wafers. Each 3nm wafers needs about 20 EUV passes, so about 1.1 million passes per GW. Adding on 5nm and memory, you need two million passes. Each tool can do 75 passes per hour, so with 90% uptime that’s around 600k passes per year - so a single machine can make less than a third of a GW in a year. So in 2030, we have 700 total machines, each making 0.3ish GW a year, which means we can produce 200 GW of compute a year. That’s a lot. But Sam Altman wants a gigawatt a week by the end of the decade. Anthropic and Google will be wanting about the same. And Elon wants to be putting 100 GW in space every year. Any one of these players could maybe get what they need, but not all of them.

Dwarkesh Patel

114,538 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Sam Riggall, CEO of Sunrise Energy Metals appeared on Bloomberg TV Monday, June 15, to discuss our Syerston Scandium Project and G7 countries’ plans to reduce their dependence on China for critical metals…One could benefit by listening carefully to his conversation… Sunrise’s Syerston Scandium Project is the largest and highest-grade deposit of scandium in the world. As G7 countries seek to reduce Chinese supply for rare earths like scandium to a maximum of 60%, Sunrise will serve as an alternative, given that China currently produces approximately 85% of global supply. Sunrise’s deposit holds over 32,000 tonnes of contained scandium in mineral resources: enough to meet global scandium demand for many decades to come. Scandium’s absolutely critical applications are numerous and significant: both in defense (where it is primarily used as a lightweight yet incredibly strong alloy in military and space applications) and for thousands of civilian applications (such as Radio Frequency filtering chips to enable 5G and 6G wireless, and Solid Oxide Fuel Cells to produce energy efficiently). Scandium is also integral to the future of AI…Sunrise is a cornerstone investor in Agni Semi, the company developing the next-generation of non-volatile memory chips using ferro-diodes manufactured with aluminum scandium nitride (AlScN). Agni will produce the most energy-efficient non-volatile memory chips on the market, facilitating the massive rollout of AI that is only set to consume more energy and memory as models continue to snowball…Agni’s chips can operate up to 600ºC, which have the potential to benefit the geothermal drilling technology we are developing at I-Pulse Group. In scandium’s critical applications, there is no known substitute metal that can deliver the same level of efficiency. Founding and serving as Chairman of our companies is a passion. Like I-Pulse, Sunrise Energy Metals is not only a mining company; Sunrise will also become a leading technology powerhouse in all things scandium as we make strategic investments in the downstream scandium value chain. The importance of this rare earth metal that you may have just heard of cannot be overstated. Now is the right time to learn more about Sunrise Energy Metals…

Robert Friedland

66,858 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад