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Considering entering $ORCL again. Here's why: Brad Gerstner said last month that Anthropic and OpenAI combined were doing ~$80 billion in revenue. That puts OpenAI around $30 billion ARR, since Anthropic is reportedly near $50 billion. If so, OpenAI is ahead of its own numbers. Its winter 2025 projection...

206,551 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Three of the biggest companies in the world are going public at the same time. The market has never seen anything like this. And this is how major bubbles peak. SpaceX is targeting a June 2026 IPO raising up to $75 billion at a $1.5 trillion valuation, the largest IPO in human history, bigger than Saudi Aramco's $29 billion raise in 2019. OpenAI is filing with the SEC targeting September 2026, raising at least $60 billion at a $1 trillion valuation. The company is losing $14 billion this year alone and won't be profitable until 2029. Anthropic just raised $30 billion in February 2026 at a $380 billion valuation. Its valuation has increased 15x in just 14 months. It is now preparing what could be a $900 billion private round before going public. Combined, these three IPOs could pull $200 billion from global capital markets. That is real. That is unprecedented. And here's the real risk. OpenAI is projected to lose $44 billion cumulatively before reaching profitability. Anthropic's valuation has risen 15x in 14 months on the same underlying business. Both companies are being priced for perfection at a moment when the first companies to actually deploy their products at scale are blowing their AI budgets and cancelling licenses. The real liquidation pressure from these IPOs doesn't even arrive at listing day. It arrives 180 days later when lock-up periods expire and early investors and employees can finally sell. That is when the real rotation happens. The S&P 500 concentration risk is genuine. The Magnificent 7 now represent 36% of the entire index, higher than the dot-com peak in 2000. If any of these companies disappoint, the index follows. That is not a conspiracy. That is basic math. Three historically unprecedented IPOs. $44 billion in projected OpenAI losses. An AI capex cycle that must deliver ROI. Lock-up expirations six months after listing. That combination is what you must pay attention to, as it often break cycles.

Crypto Rover

69,902 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Meta just killed the product it renamed its entire company after. Horizon Worlds VR goes dark June 15. The “metaverse” that Zuckerberg said would reach a billion people and host hundreds of billions of dollars in digital commerce peaked at 200,000 monthly users. For context, a single popular Roblox game gets more traffic than Meta’s entire virtual universe ever did. Reality Labs has now burned through roughly $80 billion in operating losses since 2020. In Q4 2025 alone, the unit lost $6.02 billion while generating $955 million in revenue. That means for every dollar Reality Labs brought in, it spent more than six. Here’s what $80 billion actually bought: legless avatars that became a meme, a Wendy’s metaverse collaboration called the “Wendyverse,” Godzilla tie-ins nobody asked for, and a platform where 91% of user-created worlds were never visited by more than 50 people. The rebrand was October 2021. The layoffs started in 2022. By 2025, Zuckerberg was personally slashing the metaverse budget 30% and recruiting AI talent from OpenAI and Apple. In January 2026, 1,500 Reality Labs employees lost their jobs. In February, Meta announced Horizon Worlds would become mobile-only. Today, they set the execution date. The mobile app that survives is competing against Roblox, Fortnite, and every other social platform that built their user base without $80 billion in subsidies. Meta’s own ad business generates over $200 billion in annual revenue. Reality Labs generates lawsuits, memes, and quarterly losses. Zuckerberg changed his company’s name to Meta in 2021 because the metaverse was the future. In 2026, the future is a mobile app.

Aakash Gupta

100,081 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS HAPPENING!! Everyone thought the biggest risk was the $SPCX IPO. WRONG. SpaceX has already gone public. Look at the valuations for 30 seconds. → SpaceX: $1.5 TRILLION → Anthropic: $1.5 TRILLION → OpenAI: $850 BILLION That is almost $4 TRILLION of private market hype competing for the same pool of capital. And Anthropic and OpenAI are still ahead. This is where the real problem starts. Money does NOT appear from nowhere. If funds want more exposure to $SPCX and the next mega IPOs, they need cash. And to get cash, they sell what they already own. → Stocks → Crypto → AI names → High-beta tech Everything retail is already holding. This is NOT just an IPO cycle. This is a liquidity black hole. Every IPO needs buyers. Every buyer needs cash. And cash does NOT appear from nowhere. There are only a few ways this goes from here: → LIGHT SHOCK: $SPX keeps correcting, high-beta names get hit first, crypto follows, then markets stabilize. → HEAVIER SCENARIO: funds keep raising cash for $SPCX and future IPOs, tech dumps harder, Bitcoin loses support, and retail gets trapped. → WORST CASE: Anthropic and OpenAI come next, liquidity gets sucked out of crowded trades, stocks dump HARD, crypto gets hit, and forced liquidations begin. But the worst part is simple. SpaceX was only the first one. Anthropic and OpenAI are still ahead. Markets are NOT pricing this liquidity drain yet. But they will. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

54,227 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

The world just paid $2 trillion for a rocket company that lost $4.9 billion last year. And the rockets are not why it lost the money. They are the only part making any. SpaceX went public Friday, the largest IPO in history. Up 19%, a $2 trillion valuation, Elon Musk the first trillionaire. Then you open the filing. Three businesses sit inside it. Starlink, the satellites, brought in $11.4 billion, 61% of all revenue, and $4.4 billion in profit. It is the only piece that earns a dollar. The rockets that land themselves run a small loss reinvesting in Starship. And the AI arm, Grok plus the app once called Twitter, folded in this February, lost $6.4 billion in a single year on $12.7 billion of spending. Read that again. The satellites pay for everything. The AI loses more than the satellites make. And the AI is the part the market fell in love with. It gets bolder. The prospectus claims a total market of $28.5 trillion, the largest any company has ever put in a filing. Larger than the GDP of the United States. That is the number underwriting a $2 trillion price tag built on a division bleeding $6 billion a year. Now the structure. About 4% of the company trades. That sliver sets the price for all of it. Musk is locked up for 366 days and holds roughly 80% of the votes. The public bought a company they cannot steer, priced on the one segment losing the most. This is the whole year in one ticker. The profit is satellites. The story is AI. The market bought the story. The rockets were never the risk. The risk is a $2 trillion price resting on the one bet that has yet to make a cent.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

722,002 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 $1 TRILLION OPENAI IPO IS COMING BEFORE ANTHROPIC!! Two of the most hyped companies in history are racing to go public. - Both burning BILLIONS. - NOT profitable at all right now. - Valued at TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS. Let's talk about what you're actually buying: OpenAI current valuation: $852,000,000,000 Revenue: $24,000,000,000 per year Losses: growing faster than revenue Anthropic current valuation: $965,000,000,000 Revenue: $47,000,000,000 per year Losses: billions every single quarter Combined, they're valued at over $1,817,000,000,000. They haven't had a single profitable year between them. OpenAI needs to justify its valuation by growing revenue 75x from here. For Anthropic, the math is even worse. It would need a market cap larger than global GDP to match Google's returns. Now think about the timing. The SpaceX IPO just opened the floodgates, and institutional capital is stretched thin. Two more TRILLION DOLLAR offerings hitting the same market. Competing for the same capital at the same time. Google was profitable at IPO. Amazon was growing at insane rates at IPO. Neither asked you to fund a company losing money at this scale. The early investors got in at $5B, $10B, $20B. They need public markets at $300B-$965B to make their returns real. You're not buying the future of AI. You're buying the exit for the people who built it. This sounds SCARY, but I'll keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

56,267 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Donald Trump just claimed again that the US donated 350 Billion dollars to Ukraine. You are being lied to by your sitting President on the United States of America. Let’s break this down with the facts rather than these random numbers Donnie is trying to sell you after finishing his nap. Independent tracking by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimated that between January 24, 2022 and June 30, 2025, U.S committed aid to Ukraine amounted to about $134 billion, not $350 billion….it gets better. Already a $166 Billion dollar difference than what Trump claims. Please understand committed and allocated isn’t the same as what has actually been delivered. 56% ($74.9 billion USD) of all funds “allocated not supplied” were for weapons. HOWEVER the $74.9 of weapons (Allocated and not necessarily all provided) were independently evaluated and subsequently massively overvalued by the US Government. The True cost of lethal aid was predicted to cost around $18.3 billion even by United States weapons pricing. One reason: when equipment is drawn from existing U.S. inventories “drawdown”, the official accounting often uses replacement-cost valuations, rather than the original (or depreciated) cost. To put it plainly, if you give Ukraine one air defense system, you account for the cost of a brand new air defense system to take its place not for the cost of the 45 year old system that was handed over. Many of the weapons provided to Ukraine was soon to be destroyed by the US forces or decommissioned. ALSO it’s important to take note as we all know the American arms industry massively overvalues the cost of all system due to its industry. America prices its systems at anything from 30-100% higher than the cost of European equivalents with the same capabilities. The true value of these weapons could have been anything from $5.49 billion-$18.3 Billion. Even with a significantly lower number of this, Independent analysts suggested that a large share perhaps 60% or more of the nominal military-aid dollar amount may effectively stay within U.S. defense industry…..60%! Out of aid provided $54 Billions dollars was Financial aid consisting of grants, loans, budget support. Of the US $54.0 billion in U.S. financial-aid allocations for that period, about US $19.3 billion was provided as loans, while roughly US $29.7 billion was given as grants. 🚨🚨That means approximately 39–40% of the U.S. financial aid during that time was structured as loans or other repayable/concessional financing.🚨🚨 The US $3.4 Billion in Humanitarian aid. Here is another kicker. After everything I have just said. According to United states press briefings: the U.S. had only delivered around 83% of promised ammunition, about 67% of pledged air-defence systems, and roughly 60% of committed bombs, artillery rounds, other munitions. $5.49 billion-$18.3 Billion $29.7 billion $3.4 Billion That $350 Billion is looking more like it was 38.59- 51.4 billion to me Donnie. And it’s a funny number that. An estimated $30–60 billion dollars was spent by Americans allies fighting alongside the US after 9/11. This included Ukraine. We never once complained about this loss or the lives we lost. Absolutely shameful.

Bricktop_NAFO

106,500 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

The companies racing Elon Musk to build AI are paying him more than 2 billion dollars a month to do it. Anthropic pays SpaceX 1.25 billion dollars a month. Google pays 920 million. They are not buying rockets. They are renting compute, the scarce Nvidia chips that train frontier models, from a data center in Memphis called Colossus that Musk's rocket company now owns. SpaceX folded xAI into itself in February, and with it the 220,000 chips built to train Grok. Then it rented them to Grok's rivals. Anthropic took the entire first building. Google leased 110,000 more. The contracts signed so far run past 80 billion dollars. SpaceX is no longer a rocket company that dabbles in AI. It is one of the largest AI compute landlords on Earth, and its biggest tenants are the rivals it is trying to beat. Musk is not choosing between building AI on the ground and building it in space. He is using one to fund the other. The 80 billion in ground contracts is the cash engine. Starmind, the million-satellite constellation built to leave the ground behind, is what the cash builds. So the rivals are financing his exit from the planet. Every dollar Anthropic and Google pay for compute in Memphis helps fund the orbital network designed to strand them on the surface. They are paying the toll on the road they are trying to win, and the toll is building Musk a road no one else can reach. The piece works out who is really renting from whom.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

97,906 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Sam Altman and Dario Amodei just got caught running a $2 trillion scam on the entire world. The timing exposes EVERYTHING: Four days after OpenAI secretly filed for a $1 trillion IPO, Altman went on stage in Sydney and said he was "delighted to be wrong" about AI destroying jobs. Amodei reversed his forecast the same week. Anthropic is targeting its own IPO in October at a $900 billion valuation. Fortune called it coordinated and they're not wrong. But here's the thing... This was never a scientific forecast to begin with. In 2024 and 2025, both CEOs needed two things simultaneously - government attention and private investment. Apocalyptic predictions delivered both. When you tell senators that AI will eliminate half of all white-collar jobs, you get called to testify. You get taken seriously as a national security issue and get positioned as the responsible adult in the room who understands the danger better than anyone. And when you tell investors the same story, you create urgency. Urgency drives capital. Capital drives valuation. Amodei said 50% of white-collar jobs were at risk. Altman said entire job categories would vanish. Both said it repeatedly, in major venues, through all of 2025. Now they need something different. OpenAI is losing $1.22 for every $1 it earns. $14 billion in losses this year against $25 billion in revenue. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are preparing the roadshow with the S-1 going public in late August. You cannot walk into a public market telling investors the technology you built is an existential threat to the economy. That is NOT a story Wall Street buys at a $1 trillion valuation. That is a story that triggers Senate hearings, regulatory intervention, and class-action lawsuits from every displaced worker in America. So the story changed. Altman's exact words in Sydney: "I'm delighted to be wrong. I thought there would have been more impact on entry-level white-collar jobs by now than has actually happened." Then he added one sentence that every financial journalist should have flagged: "It still may." So the apocalypse is just "rescheduled" - specifically to after the IPO lockup period expires. He took the L on timing, kept the vision intact, and protected the roadshow. And 115,000 tech workers laid off so far in 2026 - with Meta, Amazon, and Snap all citing AI as the driver - are watching the men who predicted their displacement announce they were WRONG about it, four days after filing to go public at a combined $2 trillion valuation. They sold the world fear to raise money, then switched up at the right time to raise more.

Ricardo

84,941 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

a moonshot engineer leaked the benchmark anthropic, openai and xai all buried the same week: kimi k3 beat opus 5, gpt-5.6 and grok 4.6 at $0.94 a task. stop paying anthropic $200 a month for opus 5 and openai $200 for gpt-5.6 when kimi does the same work for $8 the leak showed kimi k3 winning 9 of 12 categories against opus 5, gpt-5.6 and grok 4.6. within 48 hours all three labs quietly pushed pricing pages and one very specific comparison chart off their sites. nobody announced anything. they just deleted, which tells you everything the four numbers they scrubbed: cost per task · $0.94 vs $1.80 -> opus 5 charges $1.80 to finish one task. gpt-5.6 $1.04. grok 4.6 $0.61. kimi k3 $0.94 and it landed 487 of 500 clean -> anthropic is billing you double for a model that lost the benchmark it paid to promote the weights · free, sitting on huggingface right now -> the entire model is a public download. pull it, keep it, run it forever, nobody can switch it off -> a model you can hold cannot be rented at $200 a month. that single fact is what three labs deleted a chart over the switch · one line of bash -> moonshot ships an anthropic-compatible endpoint. one env variable and claude code points at kimi -> same cli, same keybindings, same /model. you change a url, opus 5 never knows it lost the seat the bill · $400 down to $8 -> opus 5 max plus gpt-5.6 pro is $400 a month. kimi runs the same daily work for $8 metered -> that is a 98% cut for output that beat both of them 9 categories to 3 here is the part they will fight me on: the frontier tax died the week this leaked and all three labs know it. once the weights are public the price has a ceiling, because anyone can serve the same model. anthropic, openai and xai are charging 2025 prices on a lead that ended in a benchmark they deleted instead of answered drop your $400/mo ai stack to $8. the run above is kimi k3 finishing the task opus 5 bills $1.80 for. the full breakdown is in the article below

starmex

30,987 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce

Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huang’s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensen’s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

180,198 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce