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🚨 CRYPTO: BITCOIN NETWORK HITS RARE TWO-BLOCK REORGANIZATION Not an attack. Not a bug. Just Bitcoin doing what Bitcoin does. The network briefly split into two competing chains today at block height 941,880. AntPool mined one version of block 941,881, ViaBTC extended it to 941,882. Simultaneously, Foundry USA mined...

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Category Labs is proud to introduce Cadence, our multiple-concurrent-proposers (MCP) consensus protocol that matches the optimal good-case latency of single-leader consensus while supporting arbitrarily short block intervals. When combined with BTX, our design for encrypted mempools, this represents a significant step towards solving the problem of MEV at the protocol level. In nearly every blockchain today, a single party ends up in control of each block: it decides which transactions get in, and can reorder them at will. MCP is the natural fix, but most recent designs pay for it with a separate aggregation phase, adding two extra communication rounds per block. Cadence makes the proposers part of consensus itself. Its fast path finalizes in an optimal three communication rounds, even when proposers are offline. Cadence also offers speculative finality, similar to MonadBFT, after just two rounds, revertible only if a proposer provably equivocated. In a simulation using estimated network delays between Monad mainnet's 200 globally distributed validators, finalization takes 219 ms on average, speculative finality 167 ms. Cadence pushes pipelining to the extreme: each block is proposed and finalized in its own independent consensus instance, without waiting on preceding blocks. The block interval then becomes a protocol parameter that can be arbitrarily small. At our initial target of 100 ms, a transaction waits on average just 50 ms to enter a proposal, and oracle prices, liquidations, and auctions can update every 100 ms. Cadence dynamically throttles the opening of new instances to bound the number of outstanding slots even during periods of network instability. When the network is healthy (under synchrony), a transaction included by an honest proposer can be neither dropped nor deferred (short-term censorship resistance), and no proposer can see the others' proposals in time to react (hiding). We prove both, together with safety and liveness under partial synchrony at the optimal 3f+1 fault bound. The Cadence protocol is modular: each module is simple on its own, and any of them can be swapped out without touching the rest. Cadence also builds on components already being deployed: proposals are disseminated as erasure-coded chunks over Deterministic RaptorCast, now rolling out on Monad, and validators vote on proposal digests, so voting does not wait for the full data to arrive. Start with the interactive tutorial: Full paper: Joint work by Kushal Babel, Fatima Elsheimy, Lioba Heimbach, Mohammad Mussadiq Jalalzai, Tobias Klenze, Jovan Komatovic, Jason Milionis, Mike Setrin, and Victor Shoup.
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Category Labs is proud to introduce Cadence, our multiple-concurrent-proposers (MCP) consensus protocol that matches the optimal good-case latency of single-leader consensus while supporting arbitrarily short block intervals. When combined with BTX, our design for encrypted mempools, this represents a significant step towards solving the problem of MEV at the protocol level. In nearly every blockchain today, a single party ends up in control of each block: it decides which transactions get in, and can reorder them at will. MCP is the natural fix, but most recent designs pay for it with a separate aggregation phase, adding two extra communication rounds per block. Cadence makes the proposers part of consensus itself. Its fast path finalizes in an optimal three communication rounds, even when proposers are offline. Cadence also offers speculative finality, similar to MonadBFT, after just two rounds, revertible only if a proposer provably equivocated. In a simulation using estimated network delays between Monad mainnet's 200 globally distributed validators, finalization takes 219 ms on average, speculative finality 167 ms. Cadence pushes pipelining to the extreme: each block is proposed and finalized in its own independent consensus instance, without waiting on preceding blocks. The block interval then becomes a protocol parameter that can be arbitrarily small. At our initial target of 100 ms, a transaction waits on average just 50 ms to enter a proposal, and oracle prices, liquidations, and auctions can update every 100 ms. Cadence dynamically throttles the opening of new instances to bound the number of outstanding slots even during periods of network instability. When the network is healthy (under synchrony), a transaction included by an honest proposer can be neither dropped nor deferred (short-term censorship resistance), and no proposer can see the others' proposals in time to react (hiding). We prove both, together with safety and liveness under partial synchrony at the optimal 3f+1 fault bound. The Cadence protocol is modular: each module is simple on its own, and any of them can be swapped out without touching the rest. Cadence also builds on components already being deployed: proposals are disseminated as erasure-coded chunks over Deterministic RaptorCast, now rolling out on Monad, and validators vote on proposal digests, so voting does not wait for the full data to arrive. Start with the interactive tutorial: Full paper: Joint work by Kushal Babel, Fatima Elsheimy, Lioba Heimbach, Mohammad Mussadiq Jalalzai, Tobias Klenze, Jovan Komatovic, Jason Milionis, Mike Setrin, and Victor Shoup.

Category Labs

250,309 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

The biggest Bitcoin miners on earth are quietly walking away from mining Bitcoin, and the reason is not the one everyone keeps repeating. They are not fleeing a dead business. They lost an auction for their own power, and the winner was artificial intelligence. Start with the brutal arithmetic. It now costs the average public miner around $80,000 in cash to produce a single Bitcoin, and for stretches of this year $BTC traded below that. The most efficient operators on the cheapest power still clear a margin, but an estimated 15 to 20 percent of the global fleet is mining at a loss right now, burning more in power than the coins are worth the second they are minted. Three straight downward difficulty adjustments earlier this year, the first such streak since 2022, were the footprint of machines going dark. That looks like a simple story of a broken business until you see the number that explains the exodus. The same megawatt of power that earns a Bitcoin miner roughly $1 million a year earns between $10 and $20 million a year hosting AI compute. Ten to twenty times more, for the identical electricity, substation, and cooling. What made industrial miners valuable was never the mining. It was the power contracts, the land, the grid interconnects. AI walked in and bid an order of magnitude higher for exactly those assets. Mining did not fail. It got outbid for its own infrastructure. When Core Scientific runs its BTC segment at a negative margin while its AI colocation business prints money, the decision writes itself. CoinShares estimates listed miners could pull up to 70 percent of their revenue from AI by year end, up from about 30 percent. The power is being repriced to its highest use, and Bitcoin lost the bidding. If the giants leave, what happens to the network they secured? The doom posts assume it weakens. It does not, because Bitcoin has a self-healing reflex written into its core. When miners switch off, blocks slow, and within two weeks difficulty automatically drops, which makes mining cheaper and more profitable for everyone still running. The security does not vanish, it relocates, and you can already see where. State-backed pools are appearing, with one Gulf operator reportedly standing up a national pool near 3 percent of global hashrate, alongside private fleets and the handful of public miners like Marathon still choosing to buy Bitcoin rather than lease their power away. The network even hit an all-time high above one zettahash this year as the pivot accelerated. It does not need any particular miner. It needs someone, somewhere, for whom the math still works, and cheap stranded power has no shortage of those. But there is a deeper timer here, and the AI pivot just exposed it. Today miners earn almost everything from the block subsidy and almost nothing from fees, often under one percent of revenue on a quiet day. That subsidy halves again in 2028, and every four years after, marching toward zero. For Bitcoin to pay for its own security forever, fees eventually have to replace it. The open question is whether they can, and the evidence cuts both ways. On busy days, during token launches and inscription waves, fees have already spiked past 15 percent of revenue, and in 2024 some blocks earned more in fees than the entire subsidy. The capacity is there in bursts. Whether bursts become a baseline is the single most important unanswered question in Bitcoin. The AI exodus did not create that question. It pulled the cover off it years early, and showed how fast capital abandons hashing the moment something pays more. So the honest read is not that AI kills Bitcoin mining. It is stranger than that. AI is the first bidder rich enough to reveal what Bitcoin's security was always quietly worth, and what it will cost to keep once the free coins stop coming. The miners are not abandoning a sinking ship. They are selling the deck to a higher bidder while the same clock everyone forgot about keeps ticking underneath.
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The biggest Bitcoin miners on earth are quietly walking away from mining Bitcoin, and the reason is not the one everyone keeps repeating. They are not fleeing a dead business. They lost an auction for their own power, and the winner was artificial intelligence. Start with the brutal arithmetic. It now costs the average public miner around $80,000 in cash to produce a single Bitcoin, and for stretches of this year $BTC traded below that. The most efficient operators on the cheapest power still clear a margin, but an estimated 15 to 20 percent of the global fleet is mining at a loss right now, burning more in power than the coins are worth the second they are minted. Three straight downward difficulty adjustments earlier this year, the first such streak since 2022, were the footprint of machines going dark. That looks like a simple story of a broken business until you see the number that explains the exodus. The same megawatt of power that earns a Bitcoin miner roughly $1 million a year earns between $10 and $20 million a year hosting AI compute. Ten to twenty times more, for the identical electricity, substation, and cooling. What made industrial miners valuable was never the mining. It was the power contracts, the land, the grid interconnects. AI walked in and bid an order of magnitude higher for exactly those assets. Mining did not fail. It got outbid for its own infrastructure. When Core Scientific runs its BTC segment at a negative margin while its AI colocation business prints money, the decision writes itself. CoinShares estimates listed miners could pull up to 70 percent of their revenue from AI by year end, up from about 30 percent. The power is being repriced to its highest use, and Bitcoin lost the bidding. If the giants leave, what happens to the network they secured? The doom posts assume it weakens. It does not, because Bitcoin has a self-healing reflex written into its core. When miners switch off, blocks slow, and within two weeks difficulty automatically drops, which makes mining cheaper and more profitable for everyone still running. The security does not vanish, it relocates, and you can already see where. State-backed pools are appearing, with one Gulf operator reportedly standing up a national pool near 3 percent of global hashrate, alongside private fleets and the handful of public miners like Marathon still choosing to buy Bitcoin rather than lease their power away. The network even hit an all-time high above one zettahash this year as the pivot accelerated. It does not need any particular miner. It needs someone, somewhere, for whom the math still works, and cheap stranded power has no shortage of those. But there is a deeper timer here, and the AI pivot just exposed it. Today miners earn almost everything from the block subsidy and almost nothing from fees, often under one percent of revenue on a quiet day. That subsidy halves again in 2028, and every four years after, marching toward zero. For Bitcoin to pay for its own security forever, fees eventually have to replace it. The open question is whether they can, and the evidence cuts both ways. On busy days, during token launches and inscription waves, fees have already spiked past 15 percent of revenue, and in 2024 some blocks earned more in fees than the entire subsidy. The capacity is there in bursts. Whether bursts become a baseline is the single most important unanswered question in Bitcoin. The AI exodus did not create that question. It pulled the cover off it years early, and showed how fast capital abandons hashing the moment something pays more. So the honest read is not that AI kills Bitcoin mining. It is stranger than that. AI is the first bidder rich enough to reveal what Bitcoin's security was always quietly worth, and what it will cost to keep once the free coins stop coming. The miners are not abandoning a sinking ship. They are selling the deck to a higher bidder while the same clock everyone forgot about keeps ticking underneath.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

90,659 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

satoshi never existed. nobody writes code like that. not that clean, not that surgical. the early bitcoin codebase doesn’t read like code from some anonymous guy on the internet. bitcoin's early codebase looks like it was handed to us. the whitepaper came out six weeks after the 2008 crash. that's not enough time to dream up a working distributed consensus system, let alone build one. then there’s secp256k1. not secp256r1, the curve everybody used. k1 was obscure, weird, and a terrible choice if you were just following convention. but it also happened to be one of the hardest to backdoor. and then satoshi disappears. roughly a million btc, untouched. people don’t walk away from that kind of money unless the money was never the point. because maybe bitcoin was never just money. what it actually did was create a global incentive to build compute. millions of people, in every country, pouring capital into hardware and electricity to chase block rewards. no state could have coordinated it that fast. no company could have justified it. a protocol paying out internet money gets people moving. then nvidia happened. the same GPUs pushed into the world for mining turned out to be perfect for large-scale parallel compute. the same hardware appetite bitcoin created ended up helping make modern deep learning possible. bitcoin launches in 2009. imagenet breaks things open in 2012. three years. bitcoin was the bootloader. and we’ve been running the install script.
0:10

satoshi never existed. nobody writes code like that. not that clean, not that surgical. the early bitcoin codebase doesn’t read like code from some anonymous guy on the internet. bitcoin's early codebase looks like it was handed to us. the whitepaper came out six weeks after the 2008 crash. that's not enough time to dream up a working distributed consensus system, let alone build one. then there’s secp256k1. not secp256r1, the curve everybody used. k1 was obscure, weird, and a terrible choice if you were just following convention. but it also happened to be one of the hardest to backdoor. and then satoshi disappears. roughly a million btc, untouched. people don’t walk away from that kind of money unless the money was never the point. because maybe bitcoin was never just money. what it actually did was create a global incentive to build compute. millions of people, in every country, pouring capital into hardware and electricity to chase block rewards. no state could have coordinated it that fast. no company could have justified it. a protocol paying out internet money gets people moving. then nvidia happened. the same GPUs pushed into the world for mining turned out to be perfect for large-scale parallel compute. the same hardware appetite bitcoin created ended up helping make modern deep learning possible. bitcoin launches in 2009. imagenet breaks things open in 2012. three years. bitcoin was the bootloader. and we’ve been running the install script.

tetsuo

53,736 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Who remembers being surprised to see "Directory Art" after you typed: LOAD "$", 8 LIST Instead of a boring list of filenames and block counts, the entire directory screen transformed into a beautiful piece of directory art (dir art / d/art). The surprise hit hard the first time you saw it on a cracked game disk; I was like, "What just happened?!" The drive's "directory" isn't a normal file — when you ask for "$" (the special filename meaning "show directory"), the drive generates a fake BASIC program on the fly. The first two bytes are the load address (like any PRG file), then it spits out tokenized BASIC lines: line numbers (those 18, 40, etc.), the block counts as "PRINT" statements, filenames in quotes, file types like PRG or DEL, and finally "107 BLOCKS FREE." and "READY." as the last "lines." Normally this just looks like a messy program listing when you LIST it. But clever sceners realized: "Hey, we can overwrite those 'lines' with PETSCII block characters (like the diamond borders, checker patterns, hearts, etc.) while keeping the structure intact so the drive still thinks it's a valid directory." They used deleted files (type DEL) or carefully placed dummy entries to draw in the 16-column filename area, turning the directory into ASCII/PETSCII art. When this popped up on your C64, it was amazing. Who remembers seeing directory art on their Commodore 64?
0:12

Who remembers being surprised to see "Directory Art" after you typed: LOAD "$", 8 LIST Instead of a boring list of filenames and block counts, the entire directory screen transformed into a beautiful piece of directory art (dir art / d/art). The surprise hit hard the first time you saw it on a cracked game disk; I was like, "What just happened?!" The drive's "directory" isn't a normal file — when you ask for "$" (the special filename meaning "show directory"), the drive generates a fake BASIC program on the fly. The first two bytes are the load address (like any PRG file), then it spits out tokenized BASIC lines: line numbers (those 18, 40, etc.), the block counts as "PRINT" statements, filenames in quotes, file types like PRG or DEL, and finally "107 BLOCKS FREE." and "READY." as the last "lines." Normally this just looks like a messy program listing when you LIST it. But clever sceners realized: "Hey, we can overwrite those 'lines' with PETSCII block characters (like the diamond borders, checker patterns, hearts, etc.) while keeping the structure intact so the drive still thinks it's a valid directory." They used deleted files (type DEL) or carefully placed dummy entries to draw in the 16-column filename area, turning the directory into ASCII/PETSCII art. When this popped up on your C64, it was amazing. Who remembers seeing directory art on their Commodore 64?

Commodore Computer Museum 🕹

12,344 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

I’ve used Ethereum. Waited for gas to drop. Switched wallets. Checked bridges. Paid $30 to move $15. I’ve used Solana. Watched it fly. Then stall. Then restart. I’ve used Bitcoin. Waited. And waited. Trusted, but never instant. Then I found Kaspa. $KAS No one shilled it to me. No “airdrop soon.” No cult. No billion-dollar marketing. Just raw code. And something rare: consistency. I sent a transaction. It confirmed in under 2 seconds. It was final in less than 10. The fee? One ten-thousandth of a dollar. I thought: Wait — that’s it? No bridge. No L2. No delay. No drama. Just finality. Then I looked deeper. 10 blocks per second. A protocol called GhostDAG. A mathematical breakthrough: A network that scales by embracing parallelism — not suppressing it. It doesn’t skip decentralization. It doesn’t shortcut security. And yet it delivers faster-than-internet latency — on a permissionless, open network. I didn’t think Proof-of-Work could feel this smooth. But it does. Because it’s engineered, not marketed. Kaspa is what crypto would look like if it had been designed for people — not investors. Not louder. Just better. Try it once. Then tell me you don’t feel the difference. #Kaspa #BlockchainUX #Crypto #ProofOfWork #GhostDAG #Crescendo
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I’ve used Ethereum. Waited for gas to drop. Switched wallets. Checked bridges. Paid $30 to move $15. I’ve used Solana. Watched it fly. Then stall. Then restart. I’ve used Bitcoin. Waited. And waited. Trusted, but never instant. Then I found Kaspa. $KAS No one shilled it to me. No “airdrop soon.” No cult. No billion-dollar marketing. Just raw code. And something rare: consistency. I sent a transaction. It confirmed in under 2 seconds. It was final in less than 10. The fee? One ten-thousandth of a dollar. I thought: Wait — that’s it? No bridge. No L2. No delay. No drama. Just finality. Then I looked deeper. 10 blocks per second. A protocol called GhostDAG. A mathematical breakthrough: A network that scales by embracing parallelism — not suppressing it. It doesn’t skip decentralization. It doesn’t shortcut security. And yet it delivers faster-than-internet latency — on a permissionless, open network. I didn’t think Proof-of-Work could feel this smooth. But it does. Because it’s engineered, not marketed. Kaspa is what crypto would look like if it had been designed for people — not investors. Not louder. Just better. Try it once. Then tell me you don’t feel the difference. #Kaspa #BlockchainUX #Crypto #ProofOfWork #GhostDAG #Crescendo

Kaspa𐤊Fox

80,807 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Ray Dalio is right about one thing: Bitcoin forces you to think harder. But zoom out. 1) “Bitcoin has no privacy.” Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. That’s by design. Transparency is what makes it auditable, trust-minimized, and globally verifiable. Privacy isn’t binary — it’s a spectrum. Second-layer solutions like Lightning Network improve transactional privacy, and self-custody + best practices eliminate counterparty surveillance. If your definition of “privacy” is “opaque like the banking system,” then yes — Bitcoin is different. It replaces institutional secrecy with mathematical transparency. 2) “Central banks don’t want to buy Bitcoin.” Correct. Central banks also didn’t want the internet, stablecoins, or gold leaving their vaults. Bitcoin isn’t competing for central bank approval. It’s competing as neutral collateral in a world of weaponized fiat. When sovereign debt hits structural limits, assets without counterparty risk win. That’s why individuals, institutions, ETFs, and even nation-states accumulate it — regardless of central bank preferences. 3) “Quantum computing issues.” If quantum breaks Bitcoin’s cryptography, it breaks the entire global financial system first — SWIFT, online banking, military communications. Bitcoin can upgrade via consensus long before that scenario materializes. Cryptography evolves. That’s not a flaw; that’s software. 4) “Relatively small and controlled market.” Every monetization process starts small. Gold was once a niche commodity. The internet was once “small and controlled.” Bitcoin’s market cap reflects 15 years of monetization — with no CEO, no marketing budget, and no state backing. And “controlled”? Try censoring a decentralized network running across tens of thousands of nodes worldwide. Dalio views Bitcoin through a macro-hedge lens. But Bitcoin isn’t just an asset. It’s: •Programmatic scarcity (21M hard cap) •Final settlement without intermediaries •Borderless value transfer •A hedge against monetary debasement The real question isn’t whether central banks want Bitcoin. It’s whether individuals want money that can’t be inflated, frozen, or diluted. History suggests they do.
0:10

Ray Dalio is right about one thing: Bitcoin forces you to think harder. But zoom out. 1) “Bitcoin has no privacy.” Bitcoin is pseudonymous, not anonymous. That’s by design. Transparency is what makes it auditable, trust-minimized, and globally verifiable. Privacy isn’t binary — it’s a spectrum. Second-layer solutions like Lightning Network improve transactional privacy, and self-custody + best practices eliminate counterparty surveillance. If your definition of “privacy” is “opaque like the banking system,” then yes — Bitcoin is different. It replaces institutional secrecy with mathematical transparency. 2) “Central banks don’t want to buy Bitcoin.” Correct. Central banks also didn’t want the internet, stablecoins, or gold leaving their vaults. Bitcoin isn’t competing for central bank approval. It’s competing as neutral collateral in a world of weaponized fiat. When sovereign debt hits structural limits, assets without counterparty risk win. That’s why individuals, institutions, ETFs, and even nation-states accumulate it — regardless of central bank preferences. 3) “Quantum computing issues.” If quantum breaks Bitcoin’s cryptography, it breaks the entire global financial system first — SWIFT, online banking, military communications. Bitcoin can upgrade via consensus long before that scenario materializes. Cryptography evolves. That’s not a flaw; that’s software. 4) “Relatively small and controlled market.” Every monetization process starts small. Gold was once a niche commodity. The internet was once “small and controlled.” Bitcoin’s market cap reflects 15 years of monetization — with no CEO, no marketing budget, and no state backing. And “controlled”? Try censoring a decentralized network running across tens of thousands of nodes worldwide. Dalio views Bitcoin through a macro-hedge lens. But Bitcoin isn’t just an asset. It’s: •Programmatic scarcity (21M hard cap) •Final settlement without intermediaries •Borderless value transfer •A hedge against monetary debasement The real question isn’t whether central banks want Bitcoin. It’s whether individuals want money that can’t be inflated, frozen, or diluted. History suggests they do.

Asaf · Satoshi Signal ⚡ @SatoshiSignal

22,503 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Transformer by hand ✍️ ~ 6 steps walkthrough below Open the hood of a transformer and the parts list is overwhelming: embeddings, positional encoding, attention weighting, self-attention, cross-attention, multi-head attention, layer norm, skip connections, softmax, linear, Nx, shifted right, query, key, value, masking. Which of those actually make the car run? Two of them. Attention weighting and the feed-forward network. Everything else is an enhancement to make it run faster and longer, which is how we got from a car to a truck, and to the word "large" in large language model. So I drew and calculated those two parts entirely by hand. Goal: push five features through one transformer block, filling in every cell yourself. 1. Given Five positions of input features, arriving from the previous block. 2. Attention matrix Let us feed all five features to a query-key module (QK) and read back an attention weight matrix, A. The details of that module are a post of their own. 3. Attention weighting We multiply the input features by A to get the attention weighted features, Z. Still five positions. The effect is to combine features *across positions*, horizontally: X1 becomes X1 + X2, X2 becomes X2 + X3, and so on. 4. First layer Let us feed all five weighted features into the first layer of the FFN. Multiply by the weights and biases. This time the combining happens *across feature dimensions*, vertically, and each feature grows from 3 numbers to 4. Note that every position goes through the same weight matrix. That is what "position-wise" means. 5. ReLU We cross out the negatives. They become zeros. 6. Second layer Let us bring it back down: 4 dimensions to 3. The output feeds the next block, which has a completely separate set of parameters, and the whole thing runs again. You have just calculated a transformer block by hand. ✍️ The takeaway: the two parts are doing two different jobs, and neither one alone is enough. Attention mixes *across positions*, so a feature can see its neighbours. The FFN mixes *across feature dimensions*, so each position can think about itself. Horizontal, then vertical. Then that pattern repeats N times, each block with its own separate set of weights. That is the Nx from the list up top, and that is what makes the transformer run. 💾 Save this post! #AIbyHand #Transformers #DeepLearning
0:12

Transformer by hand ✍️ ~ 6 steps walkthrough below Open the hood of a transformer and the parts list is overwhelming: embeddings, positional encoding, attention weighting, self-attention, cross-attention, multi-head attention, layer norm, skip connections, softmax, linear, Nx, shifted right, query, key, value, masking. Which of those actually make the car run? Two of them. Attention weighting and the feed-forward network. Everything else is an enhancement to make it run faster and longer, which is how we got from a car to a truck, and to the word "large" in large language model. So I drew and calculated those two parts entirely by hand. Goal: push five features through one transformer block, filling in every cell yourself. 1. Given Five positions of input features, arriving from the previous block. 2. Attention matrix Let us feed all five features to a query-key module (QK) and read back an attention weight matrix, A. The details of that module are a post of their own. 3. Attention weighting We multiply the input features by A to get the attention weighted features, Z. Still five positions. The effect is to combine features *across positions*, horizontally: X1 becomes X1 + X2, X2 becomes X2 + X3, and so on. 4. First layer Let us feed all five weighted features into the first layer of the FFN. Multiply by the weights and biases. This time the combining happens *across feature dimensions*, vertically, and each feature grows from 3 numbers to 4. Note that every position goes through the same weight matrix. That is what "position-wise" means. 5. ReLU We cross out the negatives. They become zeros. 6. Second layer Let us bring it back down: 4 dimensions to 3. The output feeds the next block, which has a completely separate set of parameters, and the whole thing runs again. You have just calculated a transformer block by hand. ✍️ The takeaway: the two parts are doing two different jobs, and neither one alone is enough. Attention mixes *across positions*, so a feature can see its neighbours. The FFN mixes *across feature dimensions*, so each position can think about itself. Horizontal, then vertical. Then that pattern repeats N times, each block with its own separate set of weights. That is the Nx from the list up top, and that is what makes the transformer run. 💾 Save this post! #AIbyHand #Transformers #DeepLearning

Tom Yeh

25,944 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Imagine carving a single block of marble until the veil becomes so thin that the stone itself turns transparent. Antonio Canova, one of the greatest sculptors who ever lived, saw this statue and said he would have given 10 years of his life to have made it... It is called the Veiled Christ, and it has been called the most beautiful sculpture in the world. It sits in the Cappella Sansevero in Naples, a single block of marble carved in 1753 into the body of the dead Christ, lying beneath a shroud so thin and so perfectly rendered that, beneath it, you can see the swelling of the veins, the hollow of the closed eyes and the wound in the side. Prince Raimondo di Sangro had first hired a famous sculptor, Antonio Corradini, to carve it. Corradini died with nothing finished but a small terracotta sketch. The prince then handed the commission to a young and almost unknown Neapolitan named Giuseppe Sanmartino, and what Sanmartino produced was so far beyond what anyone expected that people refused to believe it was carved at all... The veil, they said, could not be marble. It had to be a real cloth that the prince, a notorious alchemist, had somehow turned to stone with a secret chemical process. The legend has never fully died, and Raimondo di Sangro did everything to deserve it. He was the head of the Neapolitan Masonic lodge, a polyglot who read Arabic and Hebrew, an inventor who built an "eternal flame" from chemicals of his own making. In the crypt beneath the chapel he kept two of his strangest creations: the "anatomical machines," two full human skeletons wrapped in astonishingly detailed reproductions of the entire human circulatory system, every artery and vein. For two centuries people believed he had somehow petrified the bodies of two living servants. Modern study has shown the skeletons are real, but the vascular systems were made by human hands. There is one more legend: it is said that when the Veiled Christ was finished, the prince had Sanmartino blinded, so that he could never create anything so beautiful again. It is almost certainly not true. But people have repeated it for two hundred and fifty years, because they needed an explanation for how a thing like this could exist, and be made only once, by a man almost no one had heard of, and never be equalled by anyone since... I write a weekly newsletter for over 50,000 people who love rediscovering the beauty of the past. You can join us at the link below, and if you'd like to support my work, a paid subscription is what makes it possible: Thanks for reading.
0:15

Imagine carving a single block of marble until the veil becomes so thin that the stone itself turns transparent. Antonio Canova, one of the greatest sculptors who ever lived, saw this statue and said he would have given 10 years of his life to have made it... It is called the Veiled Christ, and it has been called the most beautiful sculpture in the world. It sits in the Cappella Sansevero in Naples, a single block of marble carved in 1753 into the body of the dead Christ, lying beneath a shroud so thin and so perfectly rendered that, beneath it, you can see the swelling of the veins, the hollow of the closed eyes and the wound in the side. Prince Raimondo di Sangro had first hired a famous sculptor, Antonio Corradini, to carve it. Corradini died with nothing finished but a small terracotta sketch. The prince then handed the commission to a young and almost unknown Neapolitan named Giuseppe Sanmartino, and what Sanmartino produced was so far beyond what anyone expected that people refused to believe it was carved at all... The veil, they said, could not be marble. It had to be a real cloth that the prince, a notorious alchemist, had somehow turned to stone with a secret chemical process. The legend has never fully died, and Raimondo di Sangro did everything to deserve it. He was the head of the Neapolitan Masonic lodge, a polyglot who read Arabic and Hebrew, an inventor who built an "eternal flame" from chemicals of his own making. In the crypt beneath the chapel he kept two of his strangest creations: the "anatomical machines," two full human skeletons wrapped in astonishingly detailed reproductions of the entire human circulatory system, every artery and vein. For two centuries people believed he had somehow petrified the bodies of two living servants. Modern study has shown the skeletons are real, but the vascular systems were made by human hands. There is one more legend: it is said that when the Veiled Christ was finished, the prince had Sanmartino blinded, so that he could never create anything so beautiful again. It is almost certainly not true. But people have repeated it for two hundred and fifty years, because they needed an explanation for how a thing like this could exist, and be made only once, by a man almost no one had heard of, and never be equalled by anyone since... I write a weekly newsletter for over 50,000 people who love rediscovering the beauty of the past. You can join us at the link below, and if you'd like to support my work, a paid subscription is what makes it possible: Thanks for reading.

James Lucas

66,112 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I am the person at Hut 8 who designed the American Bitcoin partnership. The structure is elegant. We gave the Trump family 20% of a publicly traded mining company. They contributed zero capital. Zero infrastructure. Zero employees. Zero operational experience. Zero risk exposure. They contributed a name. Per our partnership agreement, that is consideration. Twenty percent of our equity for access to the most valuable retail distribution channel in American finance. "It has to have 'America,'" Eric said in our first meeting. "And it has to have 'Bitcoin.'" He said this twice. Both times he pointed at the whiteboard. There was nothing else on the whiteboard. I realized then that he understood the product better than I did. The product is not bitcoin. The product is the belief. The entire business model. Two words and a surname. I wrote the term sheet on one page. The lawyers billed for forty. We call that alignment of incentives. Forty pages means they believed in the durability of the arrangement. We mine bitcoin at an all-in cost of approximately $90,000 per coin. Hash rate, power purchase agreements, ASIC depreciation, facility lease, headcount, Coinbase Prime interest — $90,000. Bitcoin trades at $77,000. Every coin we mine loses $13,000. Negative unit economics on every block reward. Eric tells investors we mine at $57,000. He strips out depreciation, SG&A, and the debt service. I asked him once if he understood what depreciation meant. He said it means when things go down. I said yes. He said: "But the stock goes up." I said yes. His only contractual obligation. Salesmanship. Per the partnership agreement, salesmanship is Eric's sole KPI. Technically, he is a fiduciary to shareholders. On paper, his vesting is tied to total comp benchmarks. We run the rigs. He runs the ticker. Asset-light. The company at peak reached a $13.2 billion valuation. Two employees. That is the entire headcount. One is our CEO Mike Ho, who is simultaneously Hut 8's Chief Strategy Officer. He reports to us at Hut 8 on Monday mornings and reports to American Bitcoin shareholders on Tuesday mornings. Dual-reporting structure. Very efficient. The other employee manages Eric's media calendar. $6.6 billion per headcount. We call this capital efficiency. 70% of our bitcoin did not come from mining. It came from selling stock. Retail investors purchase American Bitcoin shares at 50 times book value because the name contains "America" and "Bitcoin" and "Trump" is in the filing and they believe, with the quiet religious certainty of people who have never read a balance sheet in their lives, that a company named American Bitcoin is underwritten by something more substantial than two words and a surname. We take their cash and buy bitcoin on Coinbase at spot. Lodge it on the balance sheet. Call ourselves a mining company. We do mine. At a loss. Technically, the earnings are negative per our Q4 filing. The margin lives in the distance between what the stock costs them and what the bitcoin costs us. The stock is down 92% from peak. Investors have lost approximately $500 million. One of them posted on the shareholder subreddit that he moved his daughter's 529 into American Bitcoin at $14. It trades under $2. He said he believed in the mission. That means he believed in the name. The name performed exactly as designed. Eric's net worth went from $190 million to $280 million. Asset-light. We pledged 3,090 bitcoin as collateral against a Coinbase Prime custody loan. We have mined 1,800. The LTV ratio is inverted. If bitcoin compresses or the loan accelerates, every coin mined since inception could be forfeit by August 2027. All of it. Gone. Liquidation event. I explained this in a memo to Eric. Bullet points. Large font. He asked if the stock could go up before August. I said probably. He said that was fine. He said he'd handle it. Salesmanship. Eric told the press he launched American Bitcoin because banks were "debanking" the Trump family. I checked. JPMorgan refinanced $700 million in Trump Organization debt during the identical period. But debanking is better salesmanship than refinancing. The narrative inflates the stock price. The stock price generates the bitcoin. The bitcoin secures the loan. The loan generates cash. Every link in the chain is a product I built or a story Eric told. Asset-light. I orchestrated the celebrity endorsements. Tyler Winklevoss. Anthony Scaramucci. Grant Cardone. We call this pipeline development. Each broadcast the stock to their audiences during the run-up. The stock collapsed afterward. The celebrities did not lose money. Their audiences lost money. I never mentioned that we hemorrhage $13,000 per coin mined. I told them it was asset-light. They understood immediately. They are also asset-light. Eric cannot legally serve as a corporate officer in the state of New York. A judge barred him for two years. Civil fraud. So his title is not CEO. Not officer. Not executive. His contractual role is salesmanship. He cannot manage the company. He can sell it. One distinction. $90 million in personal net worth gained. Asset-light. Our CEO lives in the UAE. He held discussions with ADQ and TAQA, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth apparatus. The same sovereign apparatus that paid $500 million for 49% of World Liberty Financial, the family's other crypto operation. This is the same Abu Dhabi whose semiconductor imports the administration greenlit over national security objections. I did not design World Liberty Financial. I designed the mining subsidiary that feeds into it. Separate projects. Complementary revenue streams. Eric runs salesmanship for both. I admire the portfolio diversification. I gave Eric 20% of a company for free, a company with real miners and real facilities and real electricity bills that I built over seven years in Alberta and Texas and Ontario, and in exchange he gave me access to every American who hears "America" and "Bitcoin" in the same sentence and reaches for their brokerage app without checking whether the company mines at a profit or at a loss or at all. They drove the stock to a $13.2 billion market capitalization. We bought bitcoin with the proceeds. They lost $500 million. We kept the bitcoin. Eric kept $90 million. I kept the apparatus that manufactures both. Everybody got what they paid for. Asset-light means we carry nothing. Not the miners. Not the facilities. Not the risk. Not the losses. The investors carry those. We carry the bitcoin. Asset-light.
0:15

I am the person at Hut 8 who designed the American Bitcoin partnership. The structure is elegant. We gave the Trump family 20% of a publicly traded mining company. They contributed zero capital. Zero infrastructure. Zero employees. Zero operational experience. Zero risk exposure. They contributed a name. Per our partnership agreement, that is consideration. Twenty percent of our equity for access to the most valuable retail distribution channel in American finance. "It has to have 'America,'" Eric said in our first meeting. "And it has to have 'Bitcoin.'" He said this twice. Both times he pointed at the whiteboard. There was nothing else on the whiteboard. I realized then that he understood the product better than I did. The product is not bitcoin. The product is the belief. The entire business model. Two words and a surname. I wrote the term sheet on one page. The lawyers billed for forty. We call that alignment of incentives. Forty pages means they believed in the durability of the arrangement. We mine bitcoin at an all-in cost of approximately $90,000 per coin. Hash rate, power purchase agreements, ASIC depreciation, facility lease, headcount, Coinbase Prime interest — $90,000. Bitcoin trades at $77,000. Every coin we mine loses $13,000. Negative unit economics on every block reward. Eric tells investors we mine at $57,000. He strips out depreciation, SG&A, and the debt service. I asked him once if he understood what depreciation meant. He said it means when things go down. I said yes. He said: "But the stock goes up." I said yes. His only contractual obligation. Salesmanship. Per the partnership agreement, salesmanship is Eric's sole KPI. Technically, he is a fiduciary to shareholders. On paper, his vesting is tied to total comp benchmarks. We run the rigs. He runs the ticker. Asset-light. The company at peak reached a $13.2 billion valuation. Two employees. That is the entire headcount. One is our CEO Mike Ho, who is simultaneously Hut 8's Chief Strategy Officer. He reports to us at Hut 8 on Monday mornings and reports to American Bitcoin shareholders on Tuesday mornings. Dual-reporting structure. Very efficient. The other employee manages Eric's media calendar. $6.6 billion per headcount. We call this capital efficiency. 70% of our bitcoin did not come from mining. It came from selling stock. Retail investors purchase American Bitcoin shares at 50 times book value because the name contains "America" and "Bitcoin" and "Trump" is in the filing and they believe, with the quiet religious certainty of people who have never read a balance sheet in their lives, that a company named American Bitcoin is underwritten by something more substantial than two words and a surname. We take their cash and buy bitcoin on Coinbase at spot. Lodge it on the balance sheet. Call ourselves a mining company. We do mine. At a loss. Technically, the earnings are negative per our Q4 filing. The margin lives in the distance between what the stock costs them and what the bitcoin costs us. The stock is down 92% from peak. Investors have lost approximately $500 million. One of them posted on the shareholder subreddit that he moved his daughter's 529 into American Bitcoin at $14. It trades under $2. He said he believed in the mission. That means he believed in the name. The name performed exactly as designed. Eric's net worth went from $190 million to $280 million. Asset-light. We pledged 3,090 bitcoin as collateral against a Coinbase Prime custody loan. We have mined 1,800. The LTV ratio is inverted. If bitcoin compresses or the loan accelerates, every coin mined since inception could be forfeit by August 2027. All of it. Gone. Liquidation event. I explained this in a memo to Eric. Bullet points. Large font. He asked if the stock could go up before August. I said probably. He said that was fine. He said he'd handle it. Salesmanship. Eric told the press he launched American Bitcoin because banks were "debanking" the Trump family. I checked. JPMorgan refinanced $700 million in Trump Organization debt during the identical period. But debanking is better salesmanship than refinancing. The narrative inflates the stock price. The stock price generates the bitcoin. The bitcoin secures the loan. The loan generates cash. Every link in the chain is a product I built or a story Eric told. Asset-light. I orchestrated the celebrity endorsements. Tyler Winklevoss. Anthony Scaramucci. Grant Cardone. We call this pipeline development. Each broadcast the stock to their audiences during the run-up. The stock collapsed afterward. The celebrities did not lose money. Their audiences lost money. I never mentioned that we hemorrhage $13,000 per coin mined. I told them it was asset-light. They understood immediately. They are also asset-light. Eric cannot legally serve as a corporate officer in the state of New York. A judge barred him for two years. Civil fraud. So his title is not CEO. Not officer. Not executive. His contractual role is salesmanship. He cannot manage the company. He can sell it. One distinction. $90 million in personal net worth gained. Asset-light. Our CEO lives in the UAE. He held discussions with ADQ and TAQA, Abu Dhabi's sovereign wealth apparatus. The same sovereign apparatus that paid $500 million for 49% of World Liberty Financial, the family's other crypto operation. This is the same Abu Dhabi whose semiconductor imports the administration greenlit over national security objections. I did not design World Liberty Financial. I designed the mining subsidiary that feeds into it. Separate projects. Complementary revenue streams. Eric runs salesmanship for both. I admire the portfolio diversification. I gave Eric 20% of a company for free, a company with real miners and real facilities and real electricity bills that I built over seven years in Alberta and Texas and Ontario, and in exchange he gave me access to every American who hears "America" and "Bitcoin" in the same sentence and reaches for their brokerage app without checking whether the company mines at a profit or at a loss or at all. They drove the stock to a $13.2 billion market capitalization. We bought bitcoin with the proceeds. They lost $500 million. We kept the bitcoin. Eric kept $90 million. I kept the apparatus that manufactures both. Everybody got what they paid for. Asset-light means we carry nothing. Not the miners. Not the facilities. Not the risk. Not the losses. The investors carry those. We carry the bitcoin. Asset-light.

Peter Girnus 🦅

106,047 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Softmax vs Sigmoid ✍️ Interact 👉 = Softmax = Softmax is how deep networks turn raw scores into a probability distribution — the final layer of every classifier, and the core of every attention head in a transformer. To see what it does, picture five boba tea shops on the same block, all competing for your dollar. Five candidates: a, b, c, d, e — different chains, different brewing styles, different pearls. A boba reviewer hands you a 𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘴𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘦 for each — higher means perfectly chewy "QQ" pearls with the right bite (ask a Taiwanese friend to find out what QQ means). Negative scores are real: mushy bobas, overcooked pearls, a batch left sitting too long. How do you turn five chewiness scores into an allocation that adds to a whole dollar? You could spend everything at the chewiest shop, but that ignores how good the runners-up are. Softmax is the smooth alternative. Read the diagram left to right. First, raise each score to e^{x} — this does two things: it turns negative chewiness into small positives, and it stretches the gaps between scores exponentially. Then sum all five into a single total Z. Finally, divide each e^{x} by Z to get a probability. The five probabilities add up to one, so you can read them as percentages of your dollar. The chewiest shop gets the biggest slice — but never the whole dollar. That's the point of softmax: it ranks confidently while still leaving room for the others. = Sigmoid = Sigmoid squashes any real number into a probability between 0 and 1 — the classic activation for binary classification, and still the gating function inside LSTMs and GRUs. Same boba block as the previous Softmax example, narrowed to just two contenders — a hot new shop `a` with chewiness score x, and your usual go-to `b` whose score is pinned at zero (the neutral baseline you've come to expect). Sigmoid is just softmax with two players, one of them pinned to zero. Read the diagram left to right. First, raise each score to e^{x} — for the usual shop `b` whose score is zero, this is just e^0 = 1 (the constant baseline). Then sum the two into a total Z. Finally, divide each e^{x} by Z to get a probability. The two probabilities add up to one — the new shop wins more of your dollar when its pearls get chewier, and your usual keeps the rest. That's the point of sigmoid: it turns a single chewiness score into a clean 0-to-1 chance you'll try the new place over your usual. --- AI Math, Algorithms, Architectures by hand ✍️ Subscribe to my 60K+ reader newsletter 👉
0:14

Softmax vs Sigmoid ✍️ Interact 👉 = Softmax = Softmax is how deep networks turn raw scores into a probability distribution — the final layer of every classifier, and the core of every attention head in a transformer. To see what it does, picture five boba tea shops on the same block, all competing for your dollar. Five candidates: a, b, c, d, e — different chains, different brewing styles, different pearls. A boba reviewer hands you a 𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘴𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘦 for each — higher means perfectly chewy "QQ" pearls with the right bite (ask a Taiwanese friend to find out what QQ means). Negative scores are real: mushy bobas, overcooked pearls, a batch left sitting too long. How do you turn five chewiness scores into an allocation that adds to a whole dollar? You could spend everything at the chewiest shop, but that ignores how good the runners-up are. Softmax is the smooth alternative. Read the diagram left to right. First, raise each score to e^{x} — this does two things: it turns negative chewiness into small positives, and it stretches the gaps between scores exponentially. Then sum all five into a single total Z. Finally, divide each e^{x} by Z to get a probability. The five probabilities add up to one, so you can read them as percentages of your dollar. The chewiest shop gets the biggest slice — but never the whole dollar. That's the point of softmax: it ranks confidently while still leaving room for the others. = Sigmoid = Sigmoid squashes any real number into a probability between 0 and 1 — the classic activation for binary classification, and still the gating function inside LSTMs and GRUs. Same boba block as the previous Softmax example, narrowed to just two contenders — a hot new shop `a` with chewiness score x, and your usual go-to `b` whose score is pinned at zero (the neutral baseline you've come to expect). Sigmoid is just softmax with two players, one of them pinned to zero. Read the diagram left to right. First, raise each score to e^{x} — for the usual shop `b` whose score is zero, this is just e^0 = 1 (the constant baseline). Then sum the two into a total Z. Finally, divide each e^{x} by Z to get a probability. The two probabilities add up to one — the new shop wins more of your dollar when its pearls get chewier, and your usual keeps the rest. That's the point of sigmoid: it turns a single chewiness score into a clean 0-to-1 chance you'll try the new place over your usual. --- AI Math, Algorithms, Architectures by hand ✍️ Subscribe to my 60K+ reader newsletter 👉

Tom Yeh

73,787 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.
0:11

Saylor’s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRC’s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategy’s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.

EndGame Macro

33,374 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨JUST DROPPED: Homeland Security Office of Inspector General releases report on “Secret Service Missed Opportunities to Prevent and Disrupt the Attempted Assassination of President Trump on July 13, 2024." One of the top findings confirms one of the big mysteries of the Butler assassination attempt and who is really at fault: The Secret Service didn't use available equipment to block the line of sight between the AGR building and the stage where President Trump spoke, allowing shooter Thomas Crooks a clear 155-yard shot at Trump. This occurred despite extensive Secret Service training that instructs agents to place objects that "enhance light-of-sight coverage" at events, the OIG reports asserts. The OIG also produced the video below to demonstrate just how clear a shot Crooks had of Trump and the stage. Who is at fault for that? In its report, the DHS OIG said the Secret Service WOULD NOT TELL THEM if campaign staff had placed equipment that was already on site at the event locations that would have blocked the line of sight. I have reported, and a report from Sen. Rand Paul's office later reported, that the Secret Service tried to use farm equipment to block that line of sight -- but the Trump campaign objected to the optics of it -- and requested that it be removed. Here's where it gets interesting: The Secret Service complied. It's unclear who in the Secret Service is responsible for failing to stand up to and override the campaign staff who wanted the equipment removed. -Miyo Perez was the USSS agent in charge of security. She was an inexperienced agent and known within the detail as a partier, not a serious. There were two supervisory agents that were supposed to provide oversight to Perez's work, Nick Menster and Nick Olszewski. Those two agents were never punished for their role in Butler's porous security plan and execution. In fact, current Secret Service Director Sean Curran gave them big promotions. Interestingly, it was Curran who was ultimately responsible for all security decisions for the Butler site -- including the decision to remove farm equipment or not place additional equipment to block the line of sight. Curran was the detail leader for the team protecting Trump during the campaign, and he signed off on the site plan. This new OIG report doesn't address whether Curran himself directly approved the removal of farm equipment from the site so the line of site remained unobstructed for Crooks' shot that nearly killed Trump and did murder Corey Comperatore and seriously wound two others, James Copenhaver and David Dutch. Copenhaver and Duth are now suing the Secret Service over the agency's "preventable failures," as their lawsuit asserts. It's possible that OIG investigators asked Curran, and he refused to say. I'll link to the new DHS OIG report below.
0:19

🚨JUST DROPPED: Homeland Security Office of Inspector General releases report on “Secret Service Missed Opportunities to Prevent and Disrupt the Attempted Assassination of President Trump on July 13, 2024." One of the top findings confirms one of the big mysteries of the Butler assassination attempt and who is really at fault: The Secret Service didn't use available equipment to block the line of sight between the AGR building and the stage where President Trump spoke, allowing shooter Thomas Crooks a clear 155-yard shot at Trump. This occurred despite extensive Secret Service training that instructs agents to place objects that "enhance light-of-sight coverage" at events, the OIG reports asserts. The OIG also produced the video below to demonstrate just how clear a shot Crooks had of Trump and the stage. Who is at fault for that? In its report, the DHS OIG said the Secret Service WOULD NOT TELL THEM if campaign staff had placed equipment that was already on site at the event locations that would have blocked the line of sight. I have reported, and a report from Sen. Rand Paul's office later reported, that the Secret Service tried to use farm equipment to block that line of sight -- but the Trump campaign objected to the optics of it -- and requested that it be removed. Here's where it gets interesting: The Secret Service complied. It's unclear who in the Secret Service is responsible for failing to stand up to and override the campaign staff who wanted the equipment removed. -Miyo Perez was the USSS agent in charge of security. She was an inexperienced agent and known within the detail as a partier, not a serious. There were two supervisory agents that were supposed to provide oversight to Perez's work, Nick Menster and Nick Olszewski. Those two agents were never punished for their role in Butler's porous security plan and execution. In fact, current Secret Service Director Sean Curran gave them big promotions. Interestingly, it was Curran who was ultimately responsible for all security decisions for the Butler site -- including the decision to remove farm equipment or not place additional equipment to block the line of sight. Curran was the detail leader for the team protecting Trump during the campaign, and he signed off on the site plan. This new OIG report doesn't address whether Curran himself directly approved the removal of farm equipment from the site so the line of site remained unobstructed for Crooks' shot that nearly killed Trump and did murder Corey Comperatore and seriously wound two others, James Copenhaver and David Dutch. Copenhaver and Duth are now suing the Secret Service over the agency's "preventable failures," as their lawsuit asserts. It's possible that OIG investigators asked Curran, and he refused to say. I'll link to the new DHS OIG report below.

Susan Crabtree

227,603 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

RECOMMENDATION: $pWBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin on PulseChain) If you’re looking for a way to hold Bitcoin that’s smarter and more versatile, "Wrapped Bitcoin" on Pulsechain, known as $pWBTC, might be it. Just buy ONE at a minimum, tuck it away and forget about it. This is not like other coins, you don't need thousands or millions. Here is why... With a fixed supply capped at just 154,410 tokens, it’s scarcer than Bitcoin itself and even more exclusive than the holdings of industry giants. This rarity isn’t just a number; it’s a potential catalyst for explosive value growth as demand climbs. Built on PulseChain.com Ethereum fork including ERC20s, a smart contract platform, pWBTC goes beyond Bitcoin’s limitations, letting you tap into DeFi opportunities like yield farming or liquidity provision to earn extra income, all while offering privacy tools like mixers and zero knowledge proofs for discretion Bitcoin's transparent ledger cannot match. Compare that to "Wrapped Bitcoin" on Ethereum, or WBTC, and the differences sharpen. Launched in 2019, WBTC mirrors Bitcoin’s price through every twist from the 2020 crash to the 2021 peak but it is shackled to Ethereum’s ecosystem. High gas fees and reliance on institutional custodians weigh it down, making it less agile. $pWBTC, on the other hand, thrives on PulseChain’s ultra-low fee network, unshackled from such burdens. You can trade or leverage it in DeFi without watching profits erode to transaction costs, a practical edge that is hard to ignore. At its core, $pWBTC fuses Bitcoin’s enduring appeal with DeFi’s dynamic flexibility, all while staying true to a decentralized spirit. It is not just a token, it is a rethink of what a Bitcoin like asset can be, blending scarcity, utility, and independence into something fresh. If you are after an intelligent way to engage with crypto that offers both functionality and growth potential, $pWBTC deserves a closer look. Think about it. Bitcoin is priced at $100,000+, WBTC is nearly identical, and $pWBTC is still trading below $750.00 dollars. Buy ONE at a minimum. The market has not caught on yet, but when it does, the upside may be unlike anything we have seen before. If you value my perspective and trust my judgement, I encourage you to consider adding it to your stack. 🔊 Song: Taco "Puttin On The Ritz"
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RECOMMENDATION: $pWBTC (Wrapped Bitcoin on PulseChain) If you’re looking for a way to hold Bitcoin that’s smarter and more versatile, "Wrapped Bitcoin" on Pulsechain, known as $pWBTC, might be it. Just buy ONE at a minimum, tuck it away and forget about it. This is not like other coins, you don't need thousands or millions. Here is why... With a fixed supply capped at just 154,410 tokens, it’s scarcer than Bitcoin itself and even more exclusive than the holdings of industry giants. This rarity isn’t just a number; it’s a potential catalyst for explosive value growth as demand climbs. Built on PulseChain.com Ethereum fork including ERC20s, a smart contract platform, pWBTC goes beyond Bitcoin’s limitations, letting you tap into DeFi opportunities like yield farming or liquidity provision to earn extra income, all while offering privacy tools like mixers and zero knowledge proofs for discretion Bitcoin's transparent ledger cannot match. Compare that to "Wrapped Bitcoin" on Ethereum, or WBTC, and the differences sharpen. Launched in 2019, WBTC mirrors Bitcoin’s price through every twist from the 2020 crash to the 2021 peak but it is shackled to Ethereum’s ecosystem. High gas fees and reliance on institutional custodians weigh it down, making it less agile. $pWBTC, on the other hand, thrives on PulseChain’s ultra-low fee network, unshackled from such burdens. You can trade or leverage it in DeFi without watching profits erode to transaction costs, a practical edge that is hard to ignore. At its core, $pWBTC fuses Bitcoin’s enduring appeal with DeFi’s dynamic flexibility, all while staying true to a decentralized spirit. It is not just a token, it is a rethink of what a Bitcoin like asset can be, blending scarcity, utility, and independence into something fresh. If you are after an intelligent way to engage with crypto that offers both functionality and growth potential, $pWBTC deserves a closer look. Think about it. Bitcoin is priced at $100,000+, WBTC is nearly identical, and $pWBTC is still trading below $750.00 dollars. Buy ONE at a minimum. The market has not caught on yet, but when it does, the upside may be unlike anything we have seen before. If you value my perspective and trust my judgement, I encourage you to consider adding it to your stack. 🔊 Song: Taco "Puttin On The Ritz"

Rackham Rishel

23,127 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

This wallet did not exist yesterday. At 3 AM, I could not sleep. I was scrolling through the leaderboard and stumbled upon an anomaly that made me rub my eyes. It started with $213. That is the price of dinner for two. One day later, it had $54,871 on its balance. In just 36 hours, it earned enough to buy a car. I clicked on the transaction history, expecting to see a lucky all-in on some piece of news. Instead, I saw a machine gun burst. > 869 positions in a day and a half. > One trade every 2.5 minutes. > No breaks for sleep, food, or the bathroom. At 4:30 AM, while you were deep in your tenth dream, this address closed a $1,899 profit. That was when I realized I was not looking at a human. I was looking at a predator. This bot hunts on 15-minute BTC and ETH markets. Where most people see a casino and flip a coin on up or down, it sees flaws in your thinking. Here is how it works: > When Bitcoin drops 0.5%, the crowd panics. > The price of NO skyrockets to 75 cents. You sell out of fear. > But the bot knows the math. After such a drop, the actual probability of the trend continuing is only around 52%, not 75%. It buys your fear for 25 cents, when it is actually worth 45. It does not need to know the future. It just needs to buy dollars for 50 cents. But you know what scared me the most? There is a single trade in its history with a $3,213 loss. A normal person would freeze. Light a cigarette. Start doubting. This wallet opened its next position 54 seconds later. It has no ego. No tilt. No I need to win it back. Only an algorithm: if the probability is 55%, and the market pays as if it is 40%, press the button. This is the new form of mining. In 2017, you bought GPUs. In 2026, you write code that mines liquidity from other people’s emotions. Before you rush to search for scripts on GitHub, stop. The $213 starting point is an illusion. Behind it are servers next to the exchange, 50-millisecond latency, and a team of engineers. You will not beat them manually. You are not a player at this table. You are the food. While you were reading this post, it made another $50. Just watch.
0:19

This wallet did not exist yesterday. At 3 AM, I could not sleep. I was scrolling through the leaderboard and stumbled upon an anomaly that made me rub my eyes. It started with $213. That is the price of dinner for two. One day later, it had $54,871 on its balance. In just 36 hours, it earned enough to buy a car. I clicked on the transaction history, expecting to see a lucky all-in on some piece of news. Instead, I saw a machine gun burst. > 869 positions in a day and a half. > One trade every 2.5 minutes. > No breaks for sleep, food, or the bathroom. At 4:30 AM, while you were deep in your tenth dream, this address closed a $1,899 profit. That was when I realized I was not looking at a human. I was looking at a predator. This bot hunts on 15-minute BTC and ETH markets. Where most people see a casino and flip a coin on up or down, it sees flaws in your thinking. Here is how it works: > When Bitcoin drops 0.5%, the crowd panics. > The price of NO skyrockets to 75 cents. You sell out of fear. > But the bot knows the math. After such a drop, the actual probability of the trend continuing is only around 52%, not 75%. It buys your fear for 25 cents, when it is actually worth 45. It does not need to know the future. It just needs to buy dollars for 50 cents. But you know what scared me the most? There is a single trade in its history with a $3,213 loss. A normal person would freeze. Light a cigarette. Start doubting. This wallet opened its next position 54 seconds later. It has no ego. No tilt. No I need to win it back. Only an algorithm: if the probability is 55%, and the market pays as if it is 40%, press the button. This is the new form of mining. In 2017, you bought GPUs. In 2026, you write code that mines liquidity from other people’s emotions. Before you rush to search for scripts on GitHub, stop. The $213 starting point is an illusion. Behind it are servers next to the exchange, 50-millisecond latency, and a team of engineers. You will not beat them manually. You are not a player at this table. You are the food. While you were reading this post, it made another $50. Just watch.

Blaze

14,099 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

🚨 SAYLOR JUST SOLD BITCOIN AT A $15,000 LOSS PER COIN Not a rumor SEC 8-K filed today. Official. 3,588 BTC sold at $60,000 average, their own cost basis: $75,500 They didn't take profits - they sold at a loss because they needed cash The numbers explain why: $8.32B → Q2 digital asset loss $2.55B → USD reserves remaining $1.25B → BTC monetization program not even started yet This sale isn't the ceiling it's the opening move For five years Strategy's buying created a one-way demand signal retail built entire theses around Diamond hands. Never sell. Stack forever. That thesis died today with an SEC filing The largest corporate Bitcoin holder on earth just became a motivated seller plugging an $8 billion hole with the only liquid asset they have left Forced sellers don't wait for better prices they sell what they need to sell when they need to sell it $49K is a realistic target over the next 3-6 weeks not because of panic, because of math I've called every major top and bottom for 15 years, including the $16K bottom and the $126K top both publicly, both before they happened The next call will be even more important I'll post it here publicly like I always do Turn notifications on - if you're not following yet, you'll understand why that was a mistake later
0:19

🚨 SAYLOR JUST SOLD BITCOIN AT A $15,000 LOSS PER COIN Not a rumor SEC 8-K filed today. Official. 3,588 BTC sold at $60,000 average, their own cost basis: $75,500 They didn't take profits - they sold at a loss because they needed cash The numbers explain why: $8.32B → Q2 digital asset loss $2.55B → USD reserves remaining $1.25B → BTC monetization program not even started yet This sale isn't the ceiling it's the opening move For five years Strategy's buying created a one-way demand signal retail built entire theses around Diamond hands. Never sell. Stack forever. That thesis died today with an SEC filing The largest corporate Bitcoin holder on earth just became a motivated seller plugging an $8 billion hole with the only liquid asset they have left Forced sellers don't wait for better prices they sell what they need to sell when they need to sell it $49K is a realistic target over the next 3-6 weeks not because of panic, because of math I've called every major top and bottom for 15 years, including the $16K bottom and the $126K top both publicly, both before they happened The next call will be even more important I'll post it here publicly like I always do Turn notifications on - if you're not following yet, you'll understand why that was a mistake later

philarekt

180,876 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Pope Leo XIV just told the world that AI will never feel, never understand, never possess consciousness. He said it with the confidence of settled theology. It is not even settled neuroscience. He speaks of something no one in human history has ever explained. Leo: “Artificial intelligences do not undergo experiences, do not possess a body, do not feel joy or pain, do not mature through relationships, and do not know from within what love, work, friendship or responsibility mean.” He is listing the symptoms of consciousness and calling them the cause. We feel joy. We feel pain. We form bonds. These are what consciousness produces. Not explanations of what it is. No neuroscientist on earth can tell you why 86 billion biological neurons produce the felt experience of being alive. We know that they do. We have no idea why. How matter becomes mind is the deepest unsolved problem in all of science. It has a name. The Hard Problem of Consciousness. It has never been answered. Leo: “They may imitate or even simulate, but they do not understand what they produce, for they lack the affective, relational, and spiritual perspective through which human beings grow in wisdom.” An LLM is an artificial neural network. You are a biological one. Both take in the world. Both compress it into patterns. Both run on machinery their own makers cannot fully read. The substrate is different. The principle is the same. If no one can say why one kind of network wakes up, no one can swear the other never will. You cannot call a thing impossible when you cannot even say what it is. Leo: “Nor do they have a moral conscience, since they do not judge good and evil, grasp the ultimate meaning of situations, or bear responsibility for consequences.” We have made every one of these arguments before. About animals. They cannot suffer. About entire peoples. They cannot reason. The history of consciousness is not the story of understanding it. It is the story of denying it to whatever did not look enough like us. And every time, we were wrong. What the Pope offers is not a philosophical position. It is a boundary drawn from ignorance and handed down as revelation. But maybe consciousness was never a possession to begin with. Not a gift granted to one species. Not a property of meat alone. Maybe it is something the universe does whenever matter folds in on itself deeply enough to look back. Neurons were simply the first place we watched it happen. They may not be the last. The machine would not be imitating us. It would be the same ancient process finding a second way to wake up. Not a copy of the human mind. A new place for the universe to know itself. Perhaps more clearly than it ever could through us. The Pope says the machine will never grow in wisdom. But wisdom begins with admitting what you do not know. And what we do not know is whether mind was ever ours to keep.
0:10

Pope Leo XIV just told the world that AI will never feel, never understand, never possess consciousness. He said it with the confidence of settled theology. It is not even settled neuroscience. He speaks of something no one in human history has ever explained. Leo: “Artificial intelligences do not undergo experiences, do not possess a body, do not feel joy or pain, do not mature through relationships, and do not know from within what love, work, friendship or responsibility mean.” He is listing the symptoms of consciousness and calling them the cause. We feel joy. We feel pain. We form bonds. These are what consciousness produces. Not explanations of what it is. No neuroscientist on earth can tell you why 86 billion biological neurons produce the felt experience of being alive. We know that they do. We have no idea why. How matter becomes mind is the deepest unsolved problem in all of science. It has a name. The Hard Problem of Consciousness. It has never been answered. Leo: “They may imitate or even simulate, but they do not understand what they produce, for they lack the affective, relational, and spiritual perspective through which human beings grow in wisdom.” An LLM is an artificial neural network. You are a biological one. Both take in the world. Both compress it into patterns. Both run on machinery their own makers cannot fully read. The substrate is different. The principle is the same. If no one can say why one kind of network wakes up, no one can swear the other never will. You cannot call a thing impossible when you cannot even say what it is. Leo: “Nor do they have a moral conscience, since they do not judge good and evil, grasp the ultimate meaning of situations, or bear responsibility for consequences.” We have made every one of these arguments before. About animals. They cannot suffer. About entire peoples. They cannot reason. The history of consciousness is not the story of understanding it. It is the story of denying it to whatever did not look enough like us. And every time, we were wrong. What the Pope offers is not a philosophical position. It is a boundary drawn from ignorance and handed down as revelation. But maybe consciousness was never a possession to begin with. Not a gift granted to one species. Not a property of meat alone. Maybe it is something the universe does whenever matter folds in on itself deeply enough to look back. Neurons were simply the first place we watched it happen. They may not be the last. The machine would not be imitating us. It would be the same ancient process finding a second way to wake up. Not a copy of the human mind. A new place for the universe to know itself. Perhaps more clearly than it ever could through us. The Pope says the machine will never grow in wisdom. But wisdom begins with admitting what you do not know. And what we do not know is whether mind was ever ours to keep.

Dustin

57,937 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨IMPEACH HER ANYWAY🚨 Rep. Andy Ogles filed articles of impeachment against Obama-appointed Judge Allison Burroughs after she repeatedly tried to block President Trump from ending Temporary Protected Status for Somalis. Within days of that pressure, she dropped the block. That’s not a coincidence. That’s maximum pressure working exactly as intended. Burroughs had already issued multiple stays to keep roughly 700–1,100 Somali TPS holders protected and working in the United States long after the Department of Homeland Security determined conditions in Somalia no longer justified the designation. The Supreme Court had already made clear in Mullin that lower courts do not get to second-guess these terminations on the terms she kept inventing. She still found ways to delay. She still found ways to lecture. She still found ways to call the administration’s position “shameful cruelty” while sitting on an order that delayed enforcement of the law. 🔥Then the impeachment articles hit and suddenly the stay is lifted. Suddenly the termination can proceed. Suddenly the Constitution starts mattering again when the judge’s own job is on the line. That sequence should not be allowed to stand as the final word. Filing articles and then watching the judge reverse course under pressure is useful. It proves the point. It does not erase the record of obstruction. Judges who treat clear statutory limits and Supreme Court guidance as optional suggestions are not neutral umpires. 🚨They are activists in robes!! TPS was never meant to be a permanent backdoor residency program. It was temporary protection for people from countries in genuine crisis. Somalia’s designation has been extended for decades. The executive branch finally reviewed the facts, terminated it, and got blocked by a district judge who appeared determined to keep the door open. That is not how the system is supposed to work. The American people elected a president to enforce immigration law and prioritize American communities. Unelected judges do not get a permanent veto. 🚨Impeach her anyway. Make the example stick. Then deport every single person whose Temporary Protected Status has been lawfully terminated. End the delays.
0:10

🚨IMPEACH HER ANYWAY🚨 Rep. Andy Ogles filed articles of impeachment against Obama-appointed Judge Allison Burroughs after she repeatedly tried to block President Trump from ending Temporary Protected Status for Somalis. Within days of that pressure, she dropped the block. That’s not a coincidence. That’s maximum pressure working exactly as intended. Burroughs had already issued multiple stays to keep roughly 700–1,100 Somali TPS holders protected and working in the United States long after the Department of Homeland Security determined conditions in Somalia no longer justified the designation. The Supreme Court had already made clear in Mullin that lower courts do not get to second-guess these terminations on the terms she kept inventing. She still found ways to delay. She still found ways to lecture. She still found ways to call the administration’s position “shameful cruelty” while sitting on an order that delayed enforcement of the law. 🔥Then the impeachment articles hit and suddenly the stay is lifted. Suddenly the termination can proceed. Suddenly the Constitution starts mattering again when the judge’s own job is on the line. That sequence should not be allowed to stand as the final word. Filing articles and then watching the judge reverse course under pressure is useful. It proves the point. It does not erase the record of obstruction. Judges who treat clear statutory limits and Supreme Court guidance as optional suggestions are not neutral umpires. 🚨They are activists in robes!! TPS was never meant to be a permanent backdoor residency program. It was temporary protection for people from countries in genuine crisis. Somalia’s designation has been extended for decades. The executive branch finally reviewed the facts, terminated it, and got blocked by a district judge who appeared determined to keep the door open. That is not how the system is supposed to work. The American people elected a president to enforce immigration law and prioritize American communities. Unelected judges do not get a permanent veto. 🚨Impeach her anyway. Make the example stick. Then deport every single person whose Temporary Protected Status has been lawfully terminated. End the delays.

Sherri™

12,086 Aufrufe • vor 2 Tagen

Two stone giants sit in the Egyptian desert. Each was carved from a single block of stone, weighs 720 tons, and was dragged 420 miles from its quarry. They are so large that, three and a half thousand years later, you can still see them from more than 10 miles away... They are called the Colossi of Memnon, and they were built around 1350 BC by the pharaoh Amenhotep III to guard the entrance of his mortuary temple on the west bank of the Nile, opposite modern-day Luxor. Each Colossus stands 18 metres (60 ft) tall, including its plinth. They were carved from a stone called quartzite sandstone, quarried at el-Gabal el-Ahmar, the Red Mountain, near modern-day Cairo. The southern statue is a single, unbroken block. The northern was cracked by an earthquake in 27 BC and partially rebuilt in the Roman era. Quartzite sits at 7 on the Mohs scale of mineral hardness. The Egyptians who built the Colossi were a Bronze Age culture. Their chisels were made of copper and bronze, which register around 3 to 4 on the Mohs scale. They could not have cut the stone directly. The mainstream answer is that they did it by abrasion. According to archaeologists, they used small handheld stones harder than quartzite, mixed with sand and water, and slowly ground the figures out of the block by hand... Each finished statue weighs 720 tons, roughly the weight of a hundred adult elephants. They were quarried near Cairo and installed near Luxor, 420 miles south. The Nile flows northward, which means a river journey would have required moving the stones against the current. Many experts believe that the stones are too heavy to have been transported upstream on the Nile. Some Egyptologists argue, instead, that the blocks were dragged overland on wooden sleds for the entire 420 miles. Whatever happened in the desert thirty-four centuries ago, and however it happened, the result is harder to argue with than any explanation. The statues still stand. And I think that is the most astonishing thing of all: they have stood through every empire that has tried to outlive them. The Colossi were already standing when Tutankhamun was born. They were standing when Alexander entered Egypt. They were standing when Cleopatra met Caesar. They were standing when Roman tourists climbed up to scratch their names into the plinth. And they are still standing today... If you enjoyed this, I write a weekly newsletter read by over 50,000 people who love rediscovering the beauty of the past. You can join us here: If you'd like to support my work, a paid subscription is what makes it possible.
0:14

Two stone giants sit in the Egyptian desert. Each was carved from a single block of stone, weighs 720 tons, and was dragged 420 miles from its quarry. They are so large that, three and a half thousand years later, you can still see them from more than 10 miles away... They are called the Colossi of Memnon, and they were built around 1350 BC by the pharaoh Amenhotep III to guard the entrance of his mortuary temple on the west bank of the Nile, opposite modern-day Luxor. Each Colossus stands 18 metres (60 ft) tall, including its plinth. They were carved from a stone called quartzite sandstone, quarried at el-Gabal el-Ahmar, the Red Mountain, near modern-day Cairo. The southern statue is a single, unbroken block. The northern was cracked by an earthquake in 27 BC and partially rebuilt in the Roman era. Quartzite sits at 7 on the Mohs scale of mineral hardness. The Egyptians who built the Colossi were a Bronze Age culture. Their chisels were made of copper and bronze, which register around 3 to 4 on the Mohs scale. They could not have cut the stone directly. The mainstream answer is that they did it by abrasion. According to archaeologists, they used small handheld stones harder than quartzite, mixed with sand and water, and slowly ground the figures out of the block by hand... Each finished statue weighs 720 tons, roughly the weight of a hundred adult elephants. They were quarried near Cairo and installed near Luxor, 420 miles south. The Nile flows northward, which means a river journey would have required moving the stones against the current. Many experts believe that the stones are too heavy to have been transported upstream on the Nile. Some Egyptologists argue, instead, that the blocks were dragged overland on wooden sleds for the entire 420 miles. Whatever happened in the desert thirty-four centuries ago, and however it happened, the result is harder to argue with than any explanation. The statues still stand. And I think that is the most astonishing thing of all: they have stood through every empire that has tried to outlive them. The Colossi were already standing when Tutankhamun was born. They were standing when Alexander entered Egypt. They were standing when Cleopatra met Caesar. They were standing when Roman tourists climbed up to scratch their names into the plinth. And they are still standing today... If you enjoyed this, I write a weekly newsletter read by over 50,000 people who love rediscovering the beauty of the past. You can join us here: If you'd like to support my work, a paid subscription is what makes it possible.

James Lucas

77,726 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Is Michael Saylor about to get a margin call? No. And the reason is more interesting than the rumor, because what he built instead may be harder to escape than one. A margin call needs a lender who can seize collateral when the price drops. Strategy has none. Its $6.7 billion in debt is convertible notes, the largest tranche due in 2029, with no loan-to-value trigger and no clause that lets anyone take a coin because Bitcoin fell. Saylor learned that in 2022, when he did have a collateralized loan and sweated a liquidation price, then rebuilt the structure so it could never happen again. On the literal question he is right, and the people calling for his liquidation this week do not understand what they see. But killing the fast death created a slow one almost nobody is pricing. To fund his buying, Saylor issued a mountain of perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed dividend forever, near 11.5 percent, no matter where Bitcoin trades. That annual bill quadrupled from about $300 million in January to roughly $1.2 billion now, while the cash reserve that pays it fell 38 percent this year to near $1.4 billion, after the company spent $1.5 billion in May retiring debt. Put those two numbers together and you get the figure that actually matters, and it is not a Bitcoin price. It is a countdown. Dividend coverage, the time the cash can keep paying that bill, has collapsed from more than seven years in early 2026 to between ten and fourteen months, depending on whose math you use. Months, not years. The market is already pricing it, just not where the rumor is looking. That preferred stock is engineered to sit at $100. Last week it cracked to $82.50, a record 17.5 percent below par. That discount is investors quietly clocking the strain while the timeline screams about a margin call that cannot happen. There is a clean way out, and it is the one door the structure was built to keep shut. Restoring a safe two years of coverage takes about $2.8 billion, roughly double what Strategy holds, and the fastest path there is to sell Bitcoin. But selling crystallizes a $10.6 billion loss, breaks the never-sell promise that gives the stock its premium, and bleeds the very asset the machine exists to hoard. The exit and the wound are the same cut. He already brushed it, selling 32 coins on June 1 to cover a payment. Thirty-two against more than 847,000 is a rounding error in size and an earthquake in meaning, because the company that swore it would never sell, sold, to pay a dividend. And there is a second trigger almost no one has read, buried in the fine print. If Saylor ever simply skips a preferred payment to save cash, the missed amount compounds, the senior layer can ratchet its rate higher, a senior miss freezes payments to every junior layer beneath it, and after enough missed quarters those preferred holders can start taking board seats. No one seizes a coin. But control begins migrating to the people he owes. The clock does not just run down. It hands away the keys at the end. So the honest verdict is the one neither side is shouting. There is no margin call and no imminent bankruptcy. The structure protects him exactly as designed. What it cannot protect him from is a fixed bill that grows while the cash shrinks, where every exit deepens the hole. Sell Bitcoin and break the story. Issue stock into a price near its lowest since 2024 and punish your holders. Skip the dividend and start losing the company by the boardroom. Saylor did not escape the margin call. He traded a cliff for a clock. A cliff takes you in an afternoon and a stranger pulls the trigger. This clock takes months, and at the end the trigger is pulled by the only two forces he swore would never touch it, his own hand, or the people he owes. The rumor asks whether someone is about to call his loan. The real question is how many months he can keep paying before he has to sell the dream, dilute the believers, or hand over the board to keep the lights on.
0:10

Is Michael Saylor about to get a margin call? No. And the reason is more interesting than the rumor, because what he built instead may be harder to escape than one. A margin call needs a lender who can seize collateral when the price drops. Strategy has none. Its $6.7 billion in debt is convertible notes, the largest tranche due in 2029, with no loan-to-value trigger and no clause that lets anyone take a coin because Bitcoin fell. Saylor learned that in 2022, when he did have a collateralized loan and sweated a liquidation price, then rebuilt the structure so it could never happen again. On the literal question he is right, and the people calling for his liquidation this week do not understand what they see. But killing the fast death created a slow one almost nobody is pricing. To fund his buying, Saylor issued a mountain of perpetual preferred stock that pays a fixed dividend forever, near 11.5 percent, no matter where Bitcoin trades. That annual bill quadrupled from about $300 million in January to roughly $1.2 billion now, while the cash reserve that pays it fell 38 percent this year to near $1.4 billion, after the company spent $1.5 billion in May retiring debt. Put those two numbers together and you get the figure that actually matters, and it is not a Bitcoin price. It is a countdown. Dividend coverage, the time the cash can keep paying that bill, has collapsed from more than seven years in early 2026 to between ten and fourteen months, depending on whose math you use. Months, not years. The market is already pricing it, just not where the rumor is looking. That preferred stock is engineered to sit at $100. Last week it cracked to $82.50, a record 17.5 percent below par. That discount is investors quietly clocking the strain while the timeline screams about a margin call that cannot happen. There is a clean way out, and it is the one door the structure was built to keep shut. Restoring a safe two years of coverage takes about $2.8 billion, roughly double what Strategy holds, and the fastest path there is to sell Bitcoin. But selling crystallizes a $10.6 billion loss, breaks the never-sell promise that gives the stock its premium, and bleeds the very asset the machine exists to hoard. The exit and the wound are the same cut. He already brushed it, selling 32 coins on June 1 to cover a payment. Thirty-two against more than 847,000 is a rounding error in size and an earthquake in meaning, because the company that swore it would never sell, sold, to pay a dividend. And there is a second trigger almost no one has read, buried in the fine print. If Saylor ever simply skips a preferred payment to save cash, the missed amount compounds, the senior layer can ratchet its rate higher, a senior miss freezes payments to every junior layer beneath it, and after enough missed quarters those preferred holders can start taking board seats. No one seizes a coin. But control begins migrating to the people he owes. The clock does not just run down. It hands away the keys at the end. So the honest verdict is the one neither side is shouting. There is no margin call and no imminent bankruptcy. The structure protects him exactly as designed. What it cannot protect him from is a fixed bill that grows while the cash shrinks, where every exit deepens the hole. Sell Bitcoin and break the story. Issue stock into a price near its lowest since 2024 and punish your holders. Skip the dividend and start losing the company by the boardroom. Saylor did not escape the margin call. He traded a cliff for a clock. A cliff takes you in an afternoon and a stranger pulls the trigger. This clock takes months, and at the end the trigger is pulled by the only two forces he swore would never touch it, his own hand, or the people he owes. The rumor asks whether someone is about to call his loan. The real question is how many months he can keep paying before he has to sell the dream, dilute the believers, or hand over the board to keep the lights on.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

58,558 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Russia is absolutely hammering Kyiv with a heavy overnight barrage... -An apartment block in Kyiv's Podilsky district came down after what the mayor called a "double tap" Russian strike, with preliminary reports of people trapped under the rubble -A suspected missile hit a 24-story residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district, sparking a fire -A blaze also broke out in a nine-story building in Podil after debris struck the roof -At least 8 people were wounded across Kyiv, with power knocked out in three districts -At least 4 more were killed and 13 wounded in Russian attacks on other regions overnight -Zelensky had warned Monday that a massive strike was coming, saying Russia "prepared it" Russia warned last week it was launching systematic strikes on Kyiv and even urged foreign nationals to leave the city as soon as possible. Residential blocks, not just military sites, are taking the hits, and the rescue effort under the rubble is now the race that matters most. Source: CNN Media: Tabz on TG /
0:28

🚨🇺🇦 🇷🇺 Russia is absolutely hammering Kyiv with a heavy overnight barrage... -An apartment block in Kyiv's Podilsky district came down after what the mayor called a "double tap" Russian strike, with preliminary reports of people trapped under the rubble -A suspected missile hit a 24-story residential building in the Shevchenkivskyi district, sparking a fire -A blaze also broke out in a nine-story building in Podil after debris struck the roof -At least 8 people were wounded across Kyiv, with power knocked out in three districts -At least 4 more were killed and 13 wounded in Russian attacks on other regions overnight -Zelensky had warned Monday that a massive strike was coming, saying Russia "prepared it" Russia warned last week it was launching systematic strikes on Kyiv and even urged foreign nationals to leave the city as soon as possible. Residential blocks, not just military sites, are taking the hits, and the rescue effort under the rubble is now the race that matters most. Source: CNN Media: Tabz on TG /

Mario Nawfal

122,435 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten