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Demis on the breakthroughs needed for AGI. It is not many. Predict Google DeepMind has Continual Learning before 2026 is finished, and likely other labs too.

37,271 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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The most skilled guy in the AI industry just said we're 1-2 breakthroughs away from AGI. And he explained exactly what's missing. Demis Hassabis runs Google DeepMind. He won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry last year. He's literally the reason why Google is considered the leader of the AI race. And he just dropped the most specific AGI timeline ever: "One or two AlphaGo-level technological breakthroughs." That's it. That's all standing between us and artificial general intelligence. But here's the thing... LLMs are NOT going to get us there. ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude - they're all hitting the same wall. They can't plan long-term. Can't create NEW ideas. Can't understand physics. Demis called them "jagged intelligences. Very good at certain things. Completely incapable of others." You've felt this yourself. You've felt this yourself. You ask ChatGPT a complex question and it sounds smart. But ask it to solve something that requires REASONING across multiple steps? It falls apart. So what ARE the 2 breakthroughs we need? Breakthrough #1: World Models AI that understands how physics actually works. How water flows. How cause and effect works. DeepMind already has early versions (Genie, Veo). The insight: If AI can GENERATE something realistic, it UNDERSTANDS it. This is the foundation for robotics and AI that interacts with reality. Breakthrough #2: Agentic Systems AI that can DO things. Not just answer questions. Plan multiple steps. Execute autonomously. Adjust when wrong. DeepMind proved this with AlphaGo in 2016 - planning 20+ moves ahead to beat the world champion. Now they're generalizing it to the real world. And here's the most interesting part: Demis says these two things are starting to CONVERGE. LLMs + World Models + Agentic Behavior = AGI And when I say converge, I mean Google is already building it. They're setting up the first fully automated scientific laboratory in the UK. No humans running experiments. AI designs the test. Robots execute it. AI analyzes results. AI adjusts and iterates. The lab will work on: → Room-temperature superconductors → Nuclear fusion materials → New battery chemistries → Climate tech breakthroughs Demis's logic is simple: "If AI can screen materials 100X faster, the energy revolution takes 10 years instead of 100." But here's the scary part: China is MONTHS behind. Not years. "They're very close to the frontier. Maybe only months behind." DeepSeek. Alibaba's Qwen models. They're catching up fast. And unlike what people thought, they're doing it WITHOUT access to the most advanced Nvidia chips. The window for the West to lead in AGI is shrinking. The economic impact? Demis: "10 times bigger than the Industrial Revolution. And maybe 10 times faster." Industrial Revolution took 100+ years and reshaped civilization. This will be 10X bigger in 1/10th the time. Mass job displacement. Economic restructuring. New industries overnight. But also: → Curing all disease → Solving climate change → Unlimited clean energy → "Radical abundance" Demis is betting DeepMind can get there first. Google spent $400 million on DeepMind in 2014. That stake is now worth 100s of billions. Because DeepMind is now the "engine room" of ALL of Google's AI. Every Gemini model. Every AI feature in Search, Gmail, Workspace. All built by DeepMind. Shipped across Google's dozens of billion-user products instantly. That distribution is their superpower. The final thing Demis said that stuck with me: "AGI is probably the most transformative moment in human history. And it's on the horizon." One or two breakthroughs and 5 years away. According to the most skilled guy in the industry.

Ricardo

216,992 views • 5 months ago