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#DezervWealthSummit | 🚨 "Not having debt is like buying a car with two accelerators and no brakes and no seatbelts… Fixed income is very important if you want to earn the returns of equity over a long period of time, the asset class, which allows you to earn that...

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Chamath's CDS Bet: Outlining Major Corporate Debt Default Risks "With all of the tariffs, the one thing that we haven't sufficiently talked about is there is a tremendous amount of corporate debt that supports these businesses today." "And you would say, 'Well, if long-term rates go down, there's no real risk.'" "But the tariff picture actually impacts revenues." "And the problem with that is that there's a lot of companies that have debt covenants tied to revenue and EBITDA." "And so this is what I spoke about at the beginning of January, which is, the one risk that is uncontrollable, is what happens to corporate debt and could we see a wave of defaults and a wave of action?" On our 2025 predictions show in January, Chamath Palihapitiya picked credit default swaps as his best-performing asset this year, calling it a long-shot with major upside: " I would be long CDS. I'm buying insurance using credit default swaps. I think that there is a small chance of some volatility next year. I hope it doesn't happen. I hope that this trade loses money. But if it hits, it will be the best-performing asset of 2025." Fast-forward to April: " It has hit. For every billion dollars of risk you would've put on, would have cost you ~$1M, and that million dollars would've made you ~$7M in about three months." "Why is this important? The CDS actually represents the structural risk in the United States corporate economy." "So when you see these spreads blowing out, this is actually a very important warning sign." "This is what was the canary in the coal mine for the Great Financial Crisis." "The tariff picture and the recession picture will get played out in this chart." "And I think it's something that folks can and should probably pay tremendous attention to."

The All-In Podcast

1,102,601 views • 1 year ago

Warren Buffett says he could collect 20 to 40 billion dollars a year from government bonds without taking any risk, and that is the number he holds AI spending against: "AI companies, you're putting out huge amounts of money. And I can put huge amounts of money into government bonds and get, you know, 20 or 30 or 40 billion dollars a year in terms of payments from them." "So a good business is one that earns a lot more than, and has prospects of continuing to earn a lot more than the returns on essentially riskless investments, which you could define as Treasuries." "But if you take something like American Express, you know, most of the banks earn 13, 14% on capital." "But it's so different that it earns 30% plus on capital, and it does not incur more risk in doing so than the banks that earn 13 or 14%." "And the trick in life is to find, I mean in investing, is to find businesses that are going to earn high returns on capital for an extended period of time." "A long period of time gets to be very important because those doubles later on are very big numbers." That is a hurdle rate, and you can hold the next AI capex announcement against it the same day you read it. His second condition is the harder one. Earning high returns for an extended period means somebody has to show the returns will hold, and almost every number that would show it for AI is published by the company doing the spending. When the entity being measured also runs the measurement, what you are reading is marketing. Buffett has been able to check American Express against decades of audited filings. There is no equivalent for an AI model yet, and building it is the whole job. - Warren Buffett, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, on CNBC (CNBC).

Karl Mehta

317,150 views • 1 month ago

Dave Ramsey says all debt is stupid. Credit cards, student loans, car payments, borrowing against your house. All of it. He says your income is your number one wealth-building tool, and the second you hand it to someone else, you give up your economic future. He is half right. On credit cards, I agree completely. You are paying 28 to 30% on that. But notice what he never mentions. Cost of capital. That is the whole game, and he skips it. High-priced student debt, fine. But my own loans were at 3%, and they were the only way I got into college. I paid them back over time. That was a good investment, not a stupid one. Where he is dead wrong is real estate. Debt on real estate lets you use other people's money to buy an asset that pays for itself. That is what he misses. His whole philosophy depends on you earning more income. But with wages growing 3% while inflation runs 3%, you never get ahead. You run in place like a rat in a wheel, the exact thing he is warning you about. The only way out is to own hard assets that produce cash flow, and you buy those with debt. Here is the difference between us. He thinks all debt is bad. I think debt is a tool. Good debt and bad debt, high cost and low cost, and that difference is everything. He once said he would not take a billion dollars at zero interest. A billion dollars, costing him nothing. Put it in Treasuries and that is 30 to 40 million a year for doing nothing. He said he would pass. That is lunacy. When I borrow on real estate, someone else covers it. Always. The office building you work in and the Starbucks you walk into all carry debt, and the tenants pay it back. I own a single-family house, my tenant pays off the loan. I do not pay it. I do not need more income. I just need to keep a good tenant in that house. And yes, you get vacancies and turnover and the occasional problem tenant, but that is what management is for. He never had to learn that, because he does not use debt. And here is the part almost nobody gets. It is your money anyway. The cash sitting in your retirement account or your bank is yours. You are just borrowing it back at a lower rate and finding a tenant to cover it. That is why I disagree with him on debt. Used right, it is not the enemy. It is the entire engine.

Ken McElroy

38,406 views • 2 months ago