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Difficulty ~ Value

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Neo

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32,992 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

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Profilbild von Aman Kharbanda
Aman Kharbandavor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate Higher the difficulty - Bigger the wins!

Profilbild von Neo
Neovor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate 👆💯

Profilbild von Raymond L-B
Raymond L-Bvor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate Discipline isn’t a choice, it’s a requirement. The moment you stop controlling yourself, someone else will.

Profilbild von Supango
Supangovor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate by disciplining your dopamine

Profilbild von Armand B
Armand Bvor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate Praise be to God 🙏❤️

Profilbild von Pressian Nedev
Pressian Nedevvor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate Everything hard is so desired by people Becoming a UFC champion, becoming the best businessman in the world Etc, etc. All the people in the world fight for something For their dreams and goals Will you fight for you dream today or not?

Profilbild von BHBw
BHBwvor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate 💯🔥

Profilbild von Mouse
Mousevor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate He always has beautiful watches

Profilbild von OnlineG
OnlineGvor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate The more difficult the path is, the more people fall off, the less the competition. Those that keep going will win.

Profilbild von Blake Doherty
Blake Dohertyvor 1 Jahr

@Cobratate 🙏 Amen

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Difficulty and value are inexorably linked. The only thing that gives said objective value at all is its difficulty. If money was everywhere, along with huge piles of gold, on every street corner - it would have no value at all. Understand that it is the difficulty that delivers the DESIRE at all. YOU WOULDN’T WANT IT IF IT WASN’T HARD. Therefore... Complaining that it’s hard is a LOGIC FAIL. People complaining about things being hard is as stupid as complaining things are valuable. "Getting a 6 pack is hard" = "Getting a 6 pack is valuable" Be glad it’s hard. If it wasn’t you wouldn’t want it. Or you’d already have it along with everyone else and nobody would care. Hard to make a million bucks, that’s why it’s worth..... a million bucks. If it wasn’t, it wouldn’t be. I always say to replace the word HAVE with GET for an instant mindset shift. "I GET to go to work today" Here’s another: Replace the word HARD with IMPORTANT and you will instantly see how motivation appears from thin air. "Making money is important" "Being in good shape is important" Yes. It is. This allows you to eliminate the need for willpower, experience the world in a new light, and find a mental fortitude you never knew existed. Now... What will you do with it? Learn more:
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Difficulty and value are inexorably linked. The only thing that gives said objective value at all is its difficulty. If money was everywhere, along with huge piles of gold, on every street corner - it would have no value at all. Understand that it is the difficulty that delivers the DESIRE at all. YOU WOULDN’T WANT IT IF IT WASN’T HARD. Therefore... Complaining that it’s hard is a LOGIC FAIL. People complaining about things being hard is as stupid as complaining things are valuable. "Getting a 6 pack is hard" = "Getting a 6 pack is valuable" Be glad it’s hard. If it wasn’t you wouldn’t want it. Or you’d already have it along with everyone else and nobody would care. Hard to make a million bucks, that’s why it’s worth..... a million bucks. If it wasn’t, it wouldn’t be. I always say to replace the word HAVE with GET for an instant mindset shift. "I GET to go to work today" Here’s another: Replace the word HARD with IMPORTANT and you will instantly see how motivation appears from thin air. "Making money is important" "Being in good shape is important" Yes. It is. This allows you to eliminate the need for willpower, experience the world in a new light, and find a mental fortitude you never knew existed. Now... What will you do with it? Learn more:

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The Bayesian perspective 14:07 - "All knowledge is conditional"; Are foundational theories (e.g., FEP) true or just perspectives? 14:51 - FEP as a mathematical framework, not a theory; models are just models 15:54 - Legibility vs. Utility: Useful but illegible AI models 16:01 - Prediction vs. Explanation: Trusting black boxes can be unsatisfying 16:30 - Why understanding AI matters: Ensuring alignment with human decisions/values 17:08 - Line-of-sight legibility as an alignment approach 17:14 - Benefits of explainable AI: Human understanding and value alignment verification 18:21 - RL components: Prediction engine, reward function, policy; the alignment challenge 19:25 - Trusting AI = Trusting its policy aligns with our reward + its superior beliefs 19:57 - Language: Intrinsic representation vs. pointers between shared minds 20:21 - Why language works: Shared internal models and common grounding 21:00 - Basis of shared understanding: Not linguistic, but shared experience/intuitive physics 22:44 - Consciousness and language as lossy, simplified summaries of complex brain processes 23:22 - Evidence for simplification: Brain regions, perception vs. representation; limits of language models 24:32 - Counterpoint: Language captures complex/ambiguous human concepts 24:54 - Language as massive compression: The information bottleneck (Meister's paper) 26:22 - Implication: Language/actions are poor representations of internal understanding 27:03 - Can language models understand? 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Neuroscientist Dr. Jeff Beck from Noumenal Labs discusses the fundamental nature of representation, understanding, and modelling, comparing biological intelligence with current artificial intelligence. Jeff argues that *how* information is represented dictates predictive ability and that LLMs, while impressive at symbol manipulation and pattern matching (like next-word prediction), lack the *grounded*, causal understanding of the world inherent in biological systems. 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0:43

Have We Changed our Approach to Hamstring Injuries? 🎯 Five key points for clinical practice: 1⃣ - Strength and Flexibility are weak risk factors for hamstring injuries and continue to form a small but important part of the causal pathway. Although the evidence for stretching is lacking, multi-faceted prevention programmes might consider including these components to be successful in the prevention of hamstring injuries. 2⃣ - Intrinsic neuromuscular function may be altered post-injury. Clinicians should focus on returning the player to full function during the rehabilitation of hamstring injuries, which may include specific targeted intervention even after return to play. 3⃣ - Our common strength and flexibility tests have poor predictive value, and do not possess the characteristics needed to successfully identify individual players at greater risk of hamstring injury. This is evident in the large amount of variability between seasons, and poor sensitivity and specificity demonstrated for these measurements. The wide overlap in distribution of pre-season strength between injured and uninjured players demonstrates the difficulty in identifying a subgroup of at-risk players that might benefit from targeted intervention. It is therefore recommended that prevention programs be implemented for all players. 4⃣ - Workload monitoring provide another potential way in which we may reduce the risk of injury. The aggregation of chronic workload, as well as careful planning of acute workload increases, may reduce the risk of hamstring injury. However, high-level evidence to support this is lacking. 5⃣ - Understanding the context in which injuries occur and appreciating the complex nature of these injuries are important considerations to better manage players with hamstring injuries 🔗Read the full article 👉 ✍️ Roald Bahr & Nicol van Dyk

Aspetar سبيتار

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PROPHETIC DECLARATIONS Father, in the name of Jesus, You placed this in my heart to teach Your people to help them to know that lack and want are a curse and that they can leave a Believer's life, when they serve The Lord diligently and passionately. I stretch my hands over everyone onsite and online and pray for you from the depths of my heart, see the marvelous hand of God in your finances. May God put it in the heart of people, even strangers to locate and bless you so mightily. For anyone in business, experiencing difficulty in locating those who need the value you carry, I connect you For those without employment, in the name of Jesus, may this year not end without you getting a job and receiving your letter of employment. I pray for anyone in debt, who borrowed money and is now in trouble, in the name of Jesus, between now and 31st of December, come out of that financial problem I pray for someone who has made careless financial decisions, thereby causing loss, in the name of Jesus, may God The Restorer restore you. For those who are not tithing, nor giving, thereby lacking spiritual roots, in the name of Jesus, the giving grace rests upon you now! I call forth your destiny helpers, you will not have to look for them yourselves, my God will bring them to you. May this be true for ministries, churches, families and individuals. Some wealthy persons looking for someone to bless, may God put your name in their hearts. For those already established, you will not fail in business, you will not lose your job. God will take you higher and higher, in the name of Jesus. #PropheticDeclarations #ApostleJoshuaSelman #KoinoniaAbuja #KoinoniaZaria #KoinoniaGlobal
5:14

PROPHETIC DECLARATIONS Father, in the name of Jesus, You placed this in my heart to teach Your people to help them to know that lack and want are a curse and that they can leave a Believer's life, when they serve The Lord diligently and passionately. I stretch my hands over everyone onsite and online and pray for you from the depths of my heart, see the marvelous hand of God in your finances. May God put it in the heart of people, even strangers to locate and bless you so mightily. For anyone in business, experiencing difficulty in locating those who need the value you carry, I connect you For those without employment, in the name of Jesus, may this year not end without you getting a job and receiving your letter of employment. I pray for anyone in debt, who borrowed money and is now in trouble, in the name of Jesus, between now and 31st of December, come out of that financial problem I pray for someone who has made careless financial decisions, thereby causing loss, in the name of Jesus, may God The Restorer restore you. For those who are not tithing, nor giving, thereby lacking spiritual roots, in the name of Jesus, the giving grace rests upon you now! I call forth your destiny helpers, you will not have to look for them yourselves, my God will bring them to you. May this be true for ministries, churches, families and individuals. Some wealthy persons looking for someone to bless, may God put your name in their hearts. For those already established, you will not fail in business, you will not lose your job. God will take you higher and higher, in the name of Jesus. #PropheticDeclarations #ApostleJoshuaSelman #KoinoniaAbuja #KoinoniaZaria #KoinoniaGlobal

Koinonia Global

50,667 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

"Projects like the New Deal, the Apollo program pale in comparison to what we're doing right now." 🆕 Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) joins us to talk GPT-5, GPT-OSS, and what's next on OpenAI's road to crystallizing all of human intelligence! “Energy turns into compute, turns into intelligence… crystallizing compute into potential energy you can release again and again.” 0:00:04 - Introductions 0:01:04 - The Evolution of Reasoning at OpenAI 0:04:01 - Online vs Offline Learning in Language Models 0:06:44 - Sample Efficiency and Human Curation in Reinforcement Learning 0:08:16 - Scaling Compute and Supercritical Learning 0:13:21 - Wall clock time limitations in RL and real-world interactions 0:16:34 - Experience with ARC Institute and DNA neural networks 0:19:33 - Defining the GPT-5 Era 0:22:46 - Evaluating Model Intelligence and Task Difficulty 0:25:06 - Practical Advice for Developers Using GPT-5 0:31:48 - Model Specs 0:37:21 - Challenges in RL Preferences (e.g., try/catch) 0:39:13 - Model Routing and Hybrid Architectures in GPT-5 0:43:58 - GPT-5 pricing and compute efficiency improvements 0:46:04 - Self-Improving Coding Agents and Tool Usage 0:49:11 - On-Device Models and Local vs Remote Agent Systems 0:51:34 - Engineering at OpenAI and Leveraging LLMs 0:54:16 - Structuring Codebases and Teams for AI Optimization 0:55:27 - The Value of Engineers in the Age of AGI 0:58:42 - Current state of AI research and lab diversity 1:01:11 - OpenAI’s Prioritization and Focus Areas 1:03:05 - Advice for Founders - It's Not Too Late 1:04:20 - Future outlook and closing thoughts 1:04:33 - Time Capsule to 2045 - Future of Compute and Abundance 1:07:07 - Time Capsule to 2005 - More Problems Will Emerge
1:08:36

"Projects like the New Deal, the Apollo program pale in comparison to what we're doing right now." 🆕 Greg Brockman (Greg Brockman) joins us to talk GPT-5, GPT-OSS, and what's next on OpenAI's road to crystallizing all of human intelligence! “Energy turns into compute, turns into intelligence… crystallizing compute into potential energy you can release again and again.” 0:00:04 - Introductions 0:01:04 - The Evolution of Reasoning at OpenAI 0:04:01 - Online vs Offline Learning in Language Models 0:06:44 - Sample Efficiency and Human Curation in Reinforcement Learning 0:08:16 - Scaling Compute and Supercritical Learning 0:13:21 - Wall clock time limitations in RL and real-world interactions 0:16:34 - Experience with ARC Institute and DNA neural networks 0:19:33 - Defining the GPT-5 Era 0:22:46 - Evaluating Model Intelligence and Task Difficulty 0:25:06 - Practical Advice for Developers Using GPT-5 0:31:48 - Model Specs 0:37:21 - Challenges in RL Preferences (e.g., try/catch) 0:39:13 - Model Routing and Hybrid Architectures in GPT-5 0:43:58 - GPT-5 pricing and compute efficiency improvements 0:46:04 - Self-Improving Coding Agents and Tool Usage 0:49:11 - On-Device Models and Local vs Remote Agent Systems 0:51:34 - Engineering at OpenAI and Leveraging LLMs 0:54:16 - Structuring Codebases and Teams for AI Optimization 0:55:27 - The Value of Engineers in the Age of AGI 0:58:42 - Current state of AI research and lab diversity 1:01:11 - OpenAI’s Prioritization and Focus Areas 1:03:05 - Advice for Founders - It's Not Too Late 1:04:20 - Future outlook and closing thoughts 1:04:33 - Time Capsule to 2045 - Future of Compute and Abundance 1:07:07 - Time Capsule to 2005 - More Problems Will Emerge

Latent.Space

305,090 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

64 Arguments Against Democratic Socialism Timestamps: 0:00 Definitions 2:28 Hyper-individualism 5:44 Universality 9:30 He Who Pays the Piper, Calls the Tune 12:37 Welfare State Turns Humans From Assets to Liabilities 15:18 Against Me 16:25 Trump Test 18:29 Zero Sum Thinking 21:05 Forcible Depravation 22:46 Monopoly Contradiction 25:27 Vilifying Producers 28:03 Competition Protects People 32:03 The Secret to Mass Consumption = Mass Production 34:30 Decreasing Prices in the Private Sector & Potential Competition 39:35 The Myth of the Rational Voter: Fake Power vs. Real Power 50:02 Social Contract Myth 53:29 "Which Happens First?" 58:45 Static Thinking Fallacy 1:03:20 Metrics for Standard of Living & Time Prices 1:07:58 Humans Are Inherently Self Interested 1:12:53 Recognizing Rights as Reciprocal 1:14:49 We Are Not the Government 1:17:29 More Power = Better Outcome Assumption 1:21:19 The Myth of "Free" 1:23:50 Iron Law of Oligarchy 1:26:50 Praxeology 1:37:55 Inequality & Trickle Down Economics 1:44:41 Domestic Imperialism 1:48:56 Regulatory Capture 1:50:48 Abolish the Police 1:53:02 The Empirical Case 1:54:08 "Me Being X Doesn't Affect You" 1:56:01 Material Mindset 1:59:16 Capital Financing Shift 2:00:30 The Value of the Capitalist 2:03:47 Opposition to Voluntary Solutions 2:07:45 Apartheid Entitlement 2:14:36 Democracy and Delegating Rights 2:17:02 The Expert Problem 2:23:45 Capitalist Time Preference 2:31:41 Capitalist Productivity 2:34:15 Self-Ownership 2:38:15 Who Defines What "Service X" is? 2:41:57 Inevitability of Scarcity 2:46:35 The Angel Argument 2:49:04 The Crimes of the 99% 2:51:09 "Poverty Causes Crime" 2:53:04 Intentions Over Results 2:57:41 Free Association = The Ultimate "Check and Balance" 3:00:31 Surplus Value 3:04:39 Firms Reduce Transaction Costs 3:08:21 Collective Action Problem 3:10:09 Empiricism, the High Cost of Experimentation, and the Difficulty in Isolating Variables 3:12:46 Each According to Their Ability? Need? 3:15:51 Disparities Prove Discrimination 3:23:58 Comparing Theory to Reality 3:31:42 Nirvana Fallacy 3:34:41 Which Collective? 3:39:20 Argument From Tolerance 3:39:50 Prices: Signal & Incentive 3:42:58 Catastrophizing 3:46:43 Stock Diversification 3:48:17 Press Conference Bias 3:50:20 Divorce and Discrimination 3:53:38 Discouraging Savings
3:58:46

64 Arguments Against Democratic Socialism Timestamps: 0:00 Definitions 2:28 Hyper-individualism 5:44 Universality 9:30 He Who Pays the Piper, Calls the Tune 12:37 Welfare State Turns Humans From Assets to Liabilities 15:18 Against Me 16:25 Trump Test 18:29 Zero Sum Thinking 21:05 Forcible Depravation 22:46 Monopoly Contradiction 25:27 Vilifying Producers 28:03 Competition Protects People 32:03 The Secret to Mass Consumption = Mass Production 34:30 Decreasing Prices in the Private Sector & Potential Competition 39:35 The Myth of the Rational Voter: Fake Power vs. Real Power 50:02 Social Contract Myth 53:29 "Which Happens First?" 58:45 Static Thinking Fallacy 1:03:20 Metrics for Standard of Living & Time Prices 1:07:58 Humans Are Inherently Self Interested 1:12:53 Recognizing Rights as Reciprocal 1:14:49 We Are Not the Government 1:17:29 More Power = Better Outcome Assumption 1:21:19 The Myth of "Free" 1:23:50 Iron Law of Oligarchy 1:26:50 Praxeology 1:37:55 Inequality & Trickle Down Economics 1:44:41 Domestic Imperialism 1:48:56 Regulatory Capture 1:50:48 Abolish the Police 1:53:02 The Empirical Case 1:54:08 "Me Being X Doesn't Affect You" 1:56:01 Material Mindset 1:59:16 Capital Financing Shift 2:00:30 The Value of the Capitalist 2:03:47 Opposition to Voluntary Solutions 2:07:45 Apartheid Entitlement 2:14:36 Democracy and Delegating Rights 2:17:02 The Expert Problem 2:23:45 Capitalist Time Preference 2:31:41 Capitalist Productivity 2:34:15 Self-Ownership 2:38:15 Who Defines What "Service X" is? 2:41:57 Inevitability of Scarcity 2:46:35 The Angel Argument 2:49:04 The Crimes of the 99% 2:51:09 "Poverty Causes Crime" 2:53:04 Intentions Over Results 2:57:41 Free Association = The Ultimate "Check and Balance" 3:00:31 Surplus Value 3:04:39 Firms Reduce Transaction Costs 3:08:21 Collective Action Problem 3:10:09 Empiricism, the High Cost of Experimentation, and the Difficulty in Isolating Variables 3:12:46 Each According to Their Ability? Need? 3:15:51 Disparities Prove Discrimination 3:23:58 Comparing Theory to Reality 3:31:42 Nirvana Fallacy 3:34:41 Which Collective? 3:39:20 Argument From Tolerance 3:39:50 Prices: Signal & Incentive 3:42:58 Catastrophizing 3:46:43 Stock Diversification 3:48:17 Press Conference Bias 3:50:20 Divorce and Discrimination 3:53:38 Discouraging Savings

Voluntaryist Keith

317,397 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

A 4-Sharpe crypto fund. 27 of 28 months positive. Leigh Drogen (Leigh Drogen) is CIO of Starkiller Capital, a crypto quant fund running momentum and market-neutral crypto strategies. His edge is diligence — and a "never lose more than 1%" position rule. We cover: - Why block space is worthless — and the fiber-optics-in-1999 analogy that explains every L1 collapse since blobs launched on Ethereum - Starkiller's "never lose more than 1%" position sizing rule (how it compounds into 27 of 28 positive months) - The Ripple / RLUSD / USCC trade — borrowing at 2.5% against a 5-8% yielding tokenized basis fund, hidden in plain sight on Aave Horizon - How Starkiller dodged the Kelp DAO hack, lending USDC at 17-18% APR while the rest of DeFi was on fire - Why momentum is the only actual persistent alpha (it's the only persistent behavioral characteristic of humans) - "F*ckery risk" on the short book — why Drogen runs a more diversified short book than long book, even when his thesis screams short - Why "sales is way overcompensated" relative to the difficulty of the job — and what that means for ambitious young quants - The 2019 DM from a 21-year-old that became Drogen's biggest career miss — and how Polymarket's Shane Coplin (Shayne Coplan 🦅) actually solved the SEC problem ("USDC and VPNs") Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:09 Mechanics of a 4 Sharpe market neutral DeFi strategy 03:24 Quantifying protocol risk and code provenance 06:40 Case study: Exploiting incentivized spreads in carry trades 10:53 Three primary sources of alpha in liquid crypto markets 14:28 Capacity constraints and institutional yield compression 18:54 Position sizing via the 1% max loss rule 21:38 Pro-cyclical returns and the risk modulation framework 26:44 Compounding capital through trend following and cross-sectional momentum 33:35 Why momentum is the only persistent behavioral alpha 48:39 Extracting alpha from token unlock schedules and market structure 51:20 Lessons from building Estimize and the SEC/ForceRank fight 55:00 The Polymarket origin story: Arbitraging regulatory hurdles 01:01:45 Career risk premia and the value of "eating sh*t" 01:05:34 Table selection: Positioning your career on the right macro curve
1:09:20

A 4-Sharpe crypto fund. 27 of 28 months positive. Leigh Drogen (Leigh Drogen) is CIO of Starkiller Capital, a crypto quant fund running momentum and market-neutral crypto strategies. His edge is diligence — and a "never lose more than 1%" position rule. We cover: - Why block space is worthless — and the fiber-optics-in-1999 analogy that explains every L1 collapse since blobs launched on Ethereum - Starkiller's "never lose more than 1%" position sizing rule (how it compounds into 27 of 28 positive months) - The Ripple / RLUSD / USCC trade — borrowing at 2.5% against a 5-8% yielding tokenized basis fund, hidden in plain sight on Aave Horizon - How Starkiller dodged the Kelp DAO hack, lending USDC at 17-18% APR while the rest of DeFi was on fire - Why momentum is the only actual persistent alpha (it's the only persistent behavioral characteristic of humans) - "F*ckery risk" on the short book — why Drogen runs a more diversified short book than long book, even when his thesis screams short - Why "sales is way overcompensated" relative to the difficulty of the job — and what that means for ambitious young quants - The 2019 DM from a 21-year-old that became Drogen's biggest career miss — and how Polymarket's Shane Coplin (Shayne Coplan 🦅) actually solved the SEC problem ("USDC and VPNs") Highlights: 00:00 Intro 01:09 Mechanics of a 4 Sharpe market neutral DeFi strategy 03:24 Quantifying protocol risk and code provenance 06:40 Case study: Exploiting incentivized spreads in carry trades 10:53 Three primary sources of alpha in liquid crypto markets 14:28 Capacity constraints and institutional yield compression 18:54 Position sizing via the 1% max loss rule 21:38 Pro-cyclical returns and the risk modulation framework 26:44 Compounding capital through trend following and cross-sectional momentum 33:35 Why momentum is the only persistent behavioral alpha 48:39 Extracting alpha from token unlock schedules and market structure 51:20 Lessons from building Estimize and the SEC/ForceRank fight 55:00 The Polymarket origin story: Arbitraging regulatory hurdles 01:01:45 Career risk premia and the value of "eating sh*t" 01:05:34 Table selection: Positioning your career on the right macro curve

Ethan Kho

259,839 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Warren Buffett on why he chose bonds over stocks during the financial crisis: A shareholder asked Buffett why, during the 2009 crisis, he leaned toward debt instruments rather than equity. Specifically, why he invested $300 million in Harley-Davidson at 15% interest instead of buying the stock at $12 (which later traded at $33). Buffett's answer reveals his core investment philosophy: "I don't know whether Harley-Davidson equity is worth 33 or 20 or 45. I just have no view on that. I kind of like a business where your customers tattoo your name on their chest or something, but figuring out the economic value of that, you know, I'm not sure even going on questioning those guys I'd learn much from them." But what he did know was enough: "I do know, or I thought I knew, and I think I'm right, that A: Harley-Davidson was not going out of business, and B: 15% was going to look pretty damned attractive." The lesson is about decision difficulty. Buffett deliberately chose the simpler question: "I knew enough to lend them money. I didn't know enough to buy the equity. And that's frequently the case... I'll go with a simple decision." In other words, he didn't need to predict whether the motorcycle market would shrink or margins would get squeezed. He only needed to answer one question: are they going to go broke or not? Charlie Munger added another dimension to the answer, pointing to their responsibility as fiduciaries: "After all, we are a fiduciary for a lot of people, including people with permanent injuries, etc. And to some extent we are constrained by how aggressively we buy stocks versus something else." Munger also offered a broader insight for investors: "Very often when you're looking at a distressed situation and buy the bonds, you should have bought the stock. So I think you're looking in a promising area." Buffett tied it back to a principle Ben Graham wrote about in 1934: "In the analysis of senior securities, the junior securities usually do better, but you may sleep better with the senior securities." And this is where his philosophy crystallises. Berkshire has $60 billion of insurance liabilities extending out 50 years or more: "We would never have all of our money in stocks. We might have very significant amounts, but we are running this place so that it can stand anything." The payoff for that conservatism came during the crisis itself: "A couple years ago we felt very good about where that philosophy left us. We actually could do things at a time when most people were paralyzed, and we'll keep running it that way."
4:20

Warren Buffett on why he chose bonds over stocks during the financial crisis: A shareholder asked Buffett why, during the 2009 crisis, he leaned toward debt instruments rather than equity. Specifically, why he invested $300 million in Harley-Davidson at 15% interest instead of buying the stock at $12 (which later traded at $33). Buffett's answer reveals his core investment philosophy: "I don't know whether Harley-Davidson equity is worth 33 or 20 or 45. I just have no view on that. I kind of like a business where your customers tattoo your name on their chest or something, but figuring out the economic value of that, you know, I'm not sure even going on questioning those guys I'd learn much from them." But what he did know was enough: "I do know, or I thought I knew, and I think I'm right, that A: Harley-Davidson was not going out of business, and B: 15% was going to look pretty damned attractive." The lesson is about decision difficulty. Buffett deliberately chose the simpler question: "I knew enough to lend them money. I didn't know enough to buy the equity. And that's frequently the case... I'll go with a simple decision." In other words, he didn't need to predict whether the motorcycle market would shrink or margins would get squeezed. He only needed to answer one question: are they going to go broke or not? Charlie Munger added another dimension to the answer, pointing to their responsibility as fiduciaries: "After all, we are a fiduciary for a lot of people, including people with permanent injuries, etc. And to some extent we are constrained by how aggressively we buy stocks versus something else." Munger also offered a broader insight for investors: "Very often when you're looking at a distressed situation and buy the bonds, you should have bought the stock. So I think you're looking in a promising area." Buffett tied it back to a principle Ben Graham wrote about in 1934: "In the analysis of senior securities, the junior securities usually do better, but you may sleep better with the senior securities." And this is where his philosophy crystallises. Berkshire has $60 billion of insurance liabilities extending out 50 years or more: "We would never have all of our money in stocks. We might have very significant amounts, but we are running this place so that it can stand anything." The payoff for that conservatism came during the crisis itself: "A couple years ago we felt very good about where that philosophy left us. We actually could do things at a time when most people were paralyzed, and we'll keep running it that way."

Black Edge

76,530 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat