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Don’t be a dumbass like sladoc - wasting Tesla engineering time and blocking real customers who actually want/need to get on an Unsupervised FSD Robotaxi - by constantly changing your destination just to ride around in it for 2.5 hours straight. That’s exactly how you get kicked out, just...

78,209 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Whenever I tell people when you buy a Tesla, make sure you eat the cost and buy FSD outright, a majority of people always tell me “FSD is too expensive at $8,000,” without actually looking at the data and numbers behind the true value of FSD. Well, I did. Back in 2019, Elon explained the Robotaxi economics very clearly. “What would be the probable gross profit from a single Robotaxi? We think probably something on the order of $30,000 per year.” BTW, this number also came from conservative assumptions. • ~90,000 miles per year • ~50% utilization (half the miles are non-revenue) • Operating cost around $0.18 per mile (fyi, gas cars are closer to $0.60!) • Tesla takes 25-30% of the revenue • Robotaxi designed to last ~1 million miles So after costs, after Tesla’s cut, and after conservative usage, the estimate still came out to $30,000 per year from a single Robotaxi. So let me do the simple math for you. If a Robotaxi generates $30,000 per year, and you assume just 10 years of useful Robotaxi life, even though the car is going to be designed for more: 1/ $30,000 × 10 years = $300,000 Now, let’s cut that number by 50% for uncertainty, downtime, or slower rollout… I’m being conservative here. 2/ $300,000 ÷ 2 = $150,000 That means the FSD value is NOT $8,000. It’s six figures! This is why every Tesla owner should buy FSD outright right now! And is also the reason why Tesla is ending this option in February imo. You see, this is what happens when you see FSD as an income generating business, instead of just a feature. FSD is SIGNIFICANTLY undervalued. And whenever I tell people that I’m going to be the biggest Tesla Robotaxi fleet operator one day and show the world how much $ I’m making for each Robotaxi in operation, they all still laugh at me in disbelief. (I hope Elon and Tesla will let me be one of the first owners when the time comes… 🤞) But I also know that people always doubted me my whole life… until things actually became real. That’s why I’ve never seen my Tesla as just a car that depreciates like other non-Teslas. It’s the exact opposite. And one day, when these cars are driving themselves and generating $ income for me while I’m sleeping, all of the doubters will become silent. Mark my words.

Teslaconomics

112,667 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

If insurance companies don’t adapt to Tesla FSD, they’re going to have a real problem. In 2024 at the Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting, Warren Buffett got asked, “Assuming Elon delivers on his fully autonomous driving goal. Elon said, if you’ve got at scale, a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has half the accident rate of a human driven car, I think that’s difficult to ignore. Assuming Elon succeeds in reducing accidents by 50% vs human drivers, wouldn’t auto insurance rates fall to reflect the reduced underwriting risks, thereby adversely impacting Geico’s revenues and float and perhaps margins, too?” His main response was, “Well, let’s just take the extreme example. Let’s say there are only going to be 3 accidents in the U.S. next year for some crazy reason… anything that reduces accidents is going to reduce costs… If accidents get reduced 50%, it’s going to be good for society and it’s going to be bad for insurance companies’ volume… but good for society is what we’re looking for.” I’ve followed Tesla closely for years and now the proof is impossible to ignore. Profiting from insurance is built on risk and FSD is systematically removing it. FSD has now crossed the data threshold that insurers can’t ignore. By 2026, Tesla FSD has logged over 10B+ real world miles from real human behavior, real streets, real weather, real chaos, and it’s materially more data than ANY company in the world has today. Tesla’s own safety reports show it clearly: • Human driven U.S. average: ~1M miles per accident • Tesla Autopilot: ~4.5M miles per accident • Tesla FSD engaged: ~7.5M miles per accident That’s a 7.5x safety improvement over human driving! If the risk is 7.5x lower, and your premiums you’re charging customers don’t change, something is wrong. Insurance pricing is supposed to reflect this risk. This is why today’s Lemonade announcement is a wake up call to insurance providers. When Lemonade announced it’s offering a 50% insurance discount when FSD is steering, they’re reacting to Tesla FSD data. Fewer crashes results in fewer payouts, period. This is what adaptive insurance looks like and thus why Tesla & Lemonade insurance has an advantage. They are adapting to real FSD data and real time risk, and adjusting the prices. All while traditional insurance companies are still using broad historical averages, falling behind and losing customers. Companies like GEICO, State Farm, and Allstate were built for a world where humans are driving, risk is random, and prices update slowly. I believe this era of insurance is ending. Even Warren admitted it in this video, saying cutting accidents in half is great for society, but BAD for insurance volume. Bc less risk means lower premiums and lower premiums mean less float and less float is the core of traditional insurance profits! If FSD adoption hits even 50% of Tesla’s fleet, I bet accident rates could drop 30-50% industry wide. That alone puts massive pressure on a ~$300B U.S. auto insurance market today. This is also why I believe Tesla insurance has a MAJOR advantage. Your premium is solely based on data. It uses real time vehicle telemetry, scores you based on actual driving behavior, and rewards your FSD usage directly and right away. In places like California, Tesla Insurance premiums for FSD users are already 20-30% cheaper than competitors. In some cases, safe drivers see up to 60% discounts. And in Texas, claims for FSD users are 40% lower than non-FSD drivers. The long term outcome is becoming obvious to me. Insurance companies that DO NOT adapt prices dynamically, use real time data, and recognize FSD’s safety advantage will most likely lose their best customers to companies that do. For Tesla owners, this is great news bc safer driving, esp using FSD will result in cheaper insurance, but for legacy insurers, this is an existential moment. You either adapt or risk getting left behind.

Teslaconomics

140,958 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

When Elon Musk and Tesla let me, and millions of other owners, add our own cars to the Tesla Robotaxi network via a software update, it’s going to be the greatest wealth CREATION in human history. I get it. For the first time ever, a Tesla will become an $ income producing asset bc your Tesla will be able to drive itself while you’re sleeping, working, or even on vacation. This is NOT a sci-fi idea anymore. Elon has been clear for years. The hardware is already in the cars and the thing that will unlock this is going to be software. Here’s a simple version of how it’s going to work imo: 1/ A software update turns your Tesla into a robotaxi 2/ You opt in with one tap in the Tesla app 3/ Your car gives rides when you’re not using it 4/ Tesla takes a cut, you keep the rest 5/ You can pull your car out anytime, you have full control Think Airbnb, but for cars. Now on the $ generation side, this is where it can get a bit wild. Elon has said a high use robotaxi could generate ~$30,000 per year per car, and even more in busy cities. That means, 1/ A car payment pays for itself 2/ A car can become your own business 3/ And for some people, this can allow them to become financially free Elon even said robotaxi earnings should far exceed monthly car payments... this will completely flip how we think about owning a vehicle. A lot of long time Tesla investors call this the “greatest wealth transfer in history”… Elon corrected that and said something important: “Not transfer of wealth, CREATION of wealth. The pie gets much bigger.” And I believe he’s right. Autonomy makes transportation cheaper, safer, and available 24/7. This saves time, reduces accidents, lowers costs for everyone, and unlocks $ trillions of dollars in new economic value that NEVER existed before. Elon has also said: “The day FSD (w/ this Robotaxi feature) goes to wide release will be one of the biggest asset value increases in history.” That will be the day when cars are viewed as an appreciating asset instead of a depreciating asset! The scale is hard to wrap my head around tbh bc: • There are already millions of Teslas on the road • Even a small % opt-in rate creates massive fleets overnight, Waymo is screwed imo with their peanut sized 2,500 fleet • No new factories are needed • No new drivers needed Just pure AI software. Bro… this moment is going to be REALLY big. This could be the first time in human history where regular people like you and me get access to automation and making $ at scale, instead of only the big players and corporations. And when this switch flips, the way we view a car, specifically a Tesla will never look the same again. (FYI, once Elon and Tesla give me the green light, I plan on buying ~25 Teslas outright and put them into the Robotaxi network to show the world exactly what I mean)

Teslaconomics

58,369 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад