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Dual chokepoint risks deepen Shipping continues through both the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el Mandeb, but operational confidence remains under pressure. Traffic declined sharply across both chokepoints on 21 July, with Strait of Hormuz crossings down 31% day-on-day to nine vessels and Bab el Mandeb down 34% to... 29 amid a worsening security backdrop. Four confirmed vessel U turns near the Gulf of Aden suggest operators are becoming more cautious following Houthi threats against Saudi linked shipping. At the same time, confirmed maritime attacks continue around the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing concerns that uncertainty across both regional chokepoints could reshape routing decisions, increase freight costs and sustain higher geopolitical risk premiums for energy markets. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:show more

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43,862 次观看 • 22 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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Traffic diverges at key chokepoints Maritime traffic continues to navigate two strategically vital chokepoints, but the risk profile is evolving differently across each. The Strait of Hormuz recorded just 29 verified crossings between 24 and 26 July, with routing uncertainty persisting. Bab el-Mandeb, meanwhile, saw 100 verified crossings and largely stable daily activity, despite ongoing regional security concerns. Several vessels that had previously reversed course later completed their transits, indicating that operators are increasingly making route decisions based on real time risk assessments rather than broad avoidance. With no sign of a lasting regional stabilisation, vessel behaviour may prove a more important indicator than headline transit volumes. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

124,663 次观看 • 17 天前

Hormuz traffic cautiously improves Confirmed Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed active on 23 June, with 31 verified crossings across commercial and energy-linked vessels. West-to-east movements dominated, while Iranian, Omani and IMO routes all remained in use. The Strait appears operational under the US-Iran MoU, but dark-route activity and uncertainty beyond the 60-day window keep the recovery cautious. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Hormuz traffic cautiously improves Confirmed Strait of Hormuz traffic stayed active on 23 June, with 31 verified crossings across commercial and energy-linked vessels. West-to-east movements dominated, while Iranian, Omani and IMO routes all remained in use. The Strait appears operational under the US-Iran MoU, but dark-route activity and uncertainty beyond the 60-day window keep the recovery cautious. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

36,935 次观看 • 1 个月前

Hormuz traffic shows recovery Verified Strait of Hormuz crossings reached 25 on 18 June, marking a notable increase in daily maritime activity. Traffic was evenly distributed across both directions, with most vessels following established Iranian route patterns. Five sanctioned vessels were recorded among the crossings, while no additional physical attacks have been confirmed since 10 May. The latest figures coincide with discussions surrounding the implementation phase of the US-Iran 60 day memorandum framework, which aims to preserve the ceasefire, support navigation through the Strait and facilitate broader negotiations. While this d/d uptick points to improving operating conditions, unresolved implementation details and continued dark crossings indicate a continued elevated degree of caution with ship operators. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Hormuz traffic shows recovery Verified Strait of Hormuz crossings reached 25 on 18 June, marking a notable increase in daily maritime activity. Traffic was evenly distributed across both directions, with most vessels following established Iranian route patterns. Five sanctioned vessels were recorded among the crossings, while no additional physical attacks have been confirmed since 10 May. The latest figures coincide with discussions surrounding the implementation phase of the US-Iran 60 day memorandum framework, which aims to preserve the ceasefire, support navigation through the Strait and facilitate broader negotiations. While this d/d uptick points to improving operating conditions, unresolved implementation details and continued dark crossings indicate a continued elevated degree of caution with ship operators. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

197,294 次观看 • 1 个月前

“Iran's nuclear weapon: the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's nuclear weapon: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.” Christopher Helali says both chokepoints are now Iran's leverage if the US and Israel continue to escalate. “If they were both shut down, it would be world-shattering.” Full breakdown on Sanchez Effect.

“Iran's nuclear weapon: the Strait of Hormuz. Yemen's nuclear weapon: the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.” Christopher Helali says both chokepoints are now Iran's leverage if the US and Israel continue to escalate. “If they were both shut down, it would be world-shattering.” Full breakdown on Sanchez Effect.

Rick Sanchez

40,531 次观看 • 1 个月前

Hormuz recovery faces fresh pressure Traffic through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone strengthened on 7 July, with 41 verified crossings compared with 36 the previous day. Commercial west to east movements continued to dominate, while sanctioned vessel activity eased and laden crude, dry bulk and #LPG voyages remained significant. However, the operating picture became more complex. Use of the Iranian route declined as IMO routing recovered, but elevated Dark or Unknown movements highlighted uneven confidence across the market. The backdrop also deteriorated after two newly confirmed tanker incidents near Oman and OFAC’s replacement of General License X with GLX1, tightening the sanctions framework for Iranian related trade. The focus is now shifting from traffic recovery towards security, compliance and route risk management. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Hormuz recovery faces fresh pressure Traffic through the monitored Strait of Hormuz zone strengthened on 7 July, with 41 verified crossings compared with 36 the previous day. Commercial west to east movements continued to dominate, while sanctioned vessel activity eased and laden crude, dry bulk and #LPG voyages remained significant. However, the operating picture became more complex. Use of the Iranian route declined as IMO routing recovered, but elevated Dark or Unknown movements highlighted uneven confidence across the market. The backdrop also deteriorated after two newly confirmed tanker incidents near Oman and OFAC’s replacement of General License X with GLX1, tightening the sanctions framework for Iranian related trade. The focus is now shifting from traffic recovery towards security, compliance and route risk management. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

106,744 次观看 • 1 个月前

Markets rattled by mixed signals An evening of reversals unsettled markets, as uncertainty persists over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing restrictions continue to cloud sentiment and raise concerns over supply stability. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Markets rattled by mixed signals An evening of reversals unsettled markets, as uncertainty persists over the Strait of Hormuz. Ongoing restrictions continue to cloud sentiment and raise concerns over supply stability. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

12,917 次观看 • 3 个月前

Saudi Arabia has launched retaliatory strikes against Houthi targets after attacks on Saudi-linked shipping in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Among the reported targets were Houthi telecommunications facilities in Hodeidah. The Houthis have threatened further attacks on Saudi Arabia, but Saudi aircraft reportedly completed their mission and returned safely despite attempted Houthi surface-to-air missile launches.

Saudi Arabia has launched retaliatory strikes against Houthi targets after attacks on Saudi-linked shipping in both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Among the reported targets were Houthi telecommunications facilities in Hodeidah. The Houthis have threatened further attacks on Saudi Arabia, but Saudi aircraft reportedly completed their mission and returned safely despite attempted Houthi surface-to-air missile launches.

Tousi TV

20,569 次观看 • 19 天前

Hormuz traffic sees a sharp d/d uptick Confirmed Strait of Hormuz crossings rose to 70 on 24 June, up 105% day on day, as demining efforts advanced and operators increasingly used the Omani route. Commercial traffic accounted for most activity, with 53 transits, while low-risk vessels dominated the day’s profile. The US-Iran MoU framework and apparent lifting of the US blockade appear to have supported a short-term confidence boost, although IRGC warnings against use of the Omani route could create a new source of contention. IMO-route use picked up slightly, but continued Dark routing, incomplete demining and unresolved issues over inspections, sanctions and future Strait governance mean the rebound is not yet a confirmed return to pre-crisis conditions. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

193,508 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸🇸🇦 Reopening the Strait of Hormuz alone won't solve the region's shipping crisis. Brandon Weichert says Saudi Arabia should prioritize a deal with the Houthis to restore traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. The global shipping industry now needs both chokepoints reopened. According to Brandon, disruptions are becoming a far bigger problem for maritime trade than for energy markets alone. "The energy markets have somehow managed to stay relatively okay, even though all the disruptions, it's the shipping industry that's really getting eviscerated by this." Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇸🇦 Reopening the Strait of Hormuz alone won't solve the region's shipping crisis. Brandon Weichert says Saudi Arabia should prioritize a deal with the Houthis to restore traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb. The global shipping industry now needs both chokepoints reopened. According to Brandon, disruptions are becoming a far bigger problem for maritime trade than for energy markets alone. "The energy markets have somehow managed to stay relatively okay, even though all the disruptions, it's the shipping industry that's really getting eviscerated by this." Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

31,417 次观看 • 9 天前

Strait Traffic remains resilient #MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown. The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.

Strait Traffic remains resilient #MarineTraffic data recorded 108 verified vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz between 3 and 5 July, with 43 crossings on 3 July, 34 on 4 July and 31 on 5 July. Traffic was broadly balanced by direction, with 60 East-to-West crossings and 48 West-to-East crossings. Route selection remained fragmented, with 44 vessels using the Iranian Route, 30 using the Omani Route, 10 following the IMO Route and 24 classified as Dark or Unknown. The transits covered a wide range of vessel types, including tankers, container ships, bulk carriers and gas carriers, underscoring that commercial shipping continues to move through the Strait while operators maintain diversified routing strategies amid ongoing geopolitical and maritime security risks.

MarineTraffic

56,408 次观看 • 1 个月前

As anticipated, the Houthis have now entered the #IranWar‌ formally declaring their presence. This move likely serves two purposes: 1. to deter Saudi Arabia, and especially the UAE, from joining any potential U.S. ground operation against Iran. 2. to widen the battlespace and raise the regional costs of escalation. By doing so, they place the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint through which roughly 10-12 percent of global trade flows, under direct pressure. At its core, the Iran War is a chokepoint war defined by control over critical maritime arteries of Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

As anticipated, the Houthis have now entered the #IranWar‌ formally declaring their presence. This move likely serves two purposes: 1. to deter Saudi Arabia, and especially the UAE, from joining any potential U.S. ground operation against Iran. 2. to widen the battlespace and raise the regional costs of escalation. By doing so, they place the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb, a chokepoint through which roughly 10-12 percent of global trade flows, under direct pressure. At its core, the Iran War is a chokepoint war defined by control over critical maritime arteries of Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb Strait.

Arash Reisinezhad

17,783 次观看 • 4 个月前

Hormuz uptick remains fragile Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons, but volumes remain below pre-crisis norms and caution is still clear: many vessels continue using Iranian and Dark routes while demining remains incomplete. With no new physical attacks since 10 June but diplomacy still fragile, the reopening is delivering a recovery, though likely an uneven one. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Hormuz uptick remains fragile Strait of Hormuz crossings rebounded sharply over 19–21 June, with 71 confirmed transits and a weekend peak of 35 on 20 June, supported by the blockade lift and renewed free-passage signals. Commercial crossings recovered with AIS transponder ons, but volumes remain below pre-crisis norms and caution is still clear: many vessels continue using Iranian and Dark routes while demining remains incomplete. With no new physical attacks since 10 June but diplomacy still fragile, the reopening is delivering a recovery, though likely an uneven one. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

92,985 次观看 • 1 个月前

Transit patterns diverge #MarineTraffic data highlights diverging patterns across two of the world's most strategically important maritime chokepoints. Between 24 and 26 July, the Strait of Hormuz recorded 29 verified crossings, including 21 vessels exiting the Middle East Gulf and 8 entering. Routing remained evenly split, with 14 transits using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, 14 classified as Route Undetermined, and one using the Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme. By comparison, Bab el-Mandeb recorded 100 verified crossings, with 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting. Ninety vessels followed the Traffic Separation Scheme, while 10 completed dark transits. Several vessels that had previously delayed or reversed course later completed their crossings, suggesting operators are continuing to assess risk dynamically rather than avoiding the route altogether.

Transit patterns diverge #MarineTraffic data highlights diverging patterns across two of the world's most strategically important maritime chokepoints. Between 24 and 26 July, the Strait of Hormuz recorded 29 verified crossings, including 21 vessels exiting the Middle East Gulf and 8 entering. Routing remained evenly split, with 14 transits using the Iranian Unilateral Scheme, 14 classified as Route Undetermined, and one using the Hormuz Traffic Separation Scheme. By comparison, Bab el-Mandeb recorded 100 verified crossings, with 51 vessels entering the Red Sea and 49 exiting. Ninety vessels followed the Traffic Separation Scheme, while 10 completed dark transits. Several vessels that had previously delayed or reversed course later completed their crossings, suggesting operators are continuing to assess risk dynamically rather than avoiding the route altogether.

MarineTraffic

72,379 次观看 • 17 天前

🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz isn't the only choke point Iran can threaten. Maritime analyst Sal Mercogliano notes that Tehran can also pressure traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb, the gateway between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. If both routes are disrupted, millions of barrels of oil a day would be forced onto far longer routes around Africa, adding thousands of kilometers to global shipping journeys. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️

🇮🇷 The Strait of Hormuz isn't the only choke point Iran can threaten. Maritime analyst Sal Mercogliano notes that Tehran can also pressure traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb, the gateway between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean. If both routes are disrupted, millions of barrels of oil a day would be forced onto far longer routes around Africa, adding thousands of kilometers to global shipping journeys. Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴‍☠️

Mario Nawfal

50,621 次观看 • 2 个月前

If the Strait of Hormuz is the nuclear bomb, then Bab el-Mandab could be the hydrogen bomb. If the US keeps escalating against Iran, Yemen has threatened to back Tehran by shutting down the Bab el-Mandab Strait. Millions of barrels of oil pass through it every day, along with container ships carrying everything from consumer goods to pharmaceuticals. Close both chokepoints, and you're looking at a crisis that could devastate the global economy. Tune in to the Sanchez Effect.

If the Strait of Hormuz is the nuclear bomb, then Bab el-Mandab could be the hydrogen bomb. If the US keeps escalating against Iran, Yemen has threatened to back Tehran by shutting down the Bab el-Mandab Strait. Millions of barrels of oil pass through it every day, along with container ships carrying everything from consumer goods to pharmaceuticals. Close both chokepoints, and you're looking at a crisis that could devastate the global economy. Tune in to the Sanchez Effect.

Rick Sanchez

84,142 次观看 • 1 个月前

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 DANGER: ARE THE HOUTHIS A SERIOUS RISK TO OIL TRAFFIC IN THE RED SEA?! They've already proven they are. Yemen's Iranian - backed Houthis declared a maritime embargo on Saudi Arabia. In two weeks, Saudi crude loadings through the Bab el - Mandeb collapsed 36% - from 9.5 million to 6.1 million barrels daily. They're already attacking tankers. Saudi Arabia was using the Red Sea as an escape route because Iran blocked Hormuz. Seventy percent of their crude exports now move through this strait. Two tanker attacks forced them to halt all shipments temporarily. The Bab el - Mandeb carries 12% of global maritime trade. A full Houthi closure cuts global oil supply by 7%. Combined with the Hormuz blockade, that's a quarter of global oil and gas at risk. This is Iran squeezing two chokepoints at once. Can we protect the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea?

Bill Mitchell

14,056 次观看 • 22 天前

🇾🇪🇮🇱 Yemen just escalated the war They’ve launched missiles at Israel and are now threatening to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key global trade route. This is critical because that strait handles a major share of oil shipments to Europe. Last time it was disrupted, around 10% of flows were affected. Now combine that with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and you have 2 of the world’s main energy chokepoints at risk. If Bab el-Mandeb closes, ships reroute around Africa, driving up time, costs, and global prices. Yemen is also warning that any country supporting the U.S. or Israel could become a target. This is how a regional war could collapse the global economy. Source: worldhistorynetwork

🇾🇪🇮🇱 Yemen just escalated the war They’ve launched missiles at Israel and are now threatening to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key global trade route. This is critical because that strait handles a major share of oil shipments to Europe. Last time it was disrupted, around 10% of flows were affected. Now combine that with tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, and you have 2 of the world’s main energy chokepoints at risk. If Bab el-Mandeb closes, ships reroute around Africa, driving up time, costs, and global prices. Yemen is also warning that any country supporting the U.S. or Israel could become a target. This is how a regional war could collapse the global economy. Source: worldhistorynetwork

Mario Nawfal

346,131 次观看 • 4 个月前

Verified crossings still at historic lows As of 17 June, Kpler observed six verified crossings across the monitored zone. Traffic was weighted east to west, and most vessels followed established Iranian coastal passage routes. One sanctioned vessel, Ostria, was identified transiting east to west in ballast. No additional physical attacks have been confirmed since 10 May, leaving the maritime risk picture broadly unchanged. The latest movements come as US-Iran discussions continue around a proposed 60 day memorandum intended to support maritime security and preserve the current ceasefire framework. While transit activity continues, relatively low crossing volumes indicate that shipping patterns remain cautious rather than fully restored. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Verified crossings still at historic lows As of 17 June, Kpler observed six verified crossings across the monitored zone. Traffic was weighted east to west, and most vessels followed established Iranian coastal passage routes. One sanctioned vessel, Ostria, was identified transiting east to west in ballast. No additional physical attacks have been confirmed since 10 May, leaving the maritime risk picture broadly unchanged. The latest movements come as US-Iran discussions continue around a proposed 60 day memorandum intended to support maritime security and preserve the current ceasefire framework. While transit activity continues, relatively low crossing volumes indicate that shipping patterns remain cautious rather than fully restored. Stay ahead of the market with #Kpler Insight:

Kpler

114,066 次观看 • 1 个月前

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz an inviolable "red line" on Thursday, warning that any U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including the power plants and bridges President Donald J. Trump has threatened to target, would trigger retaliatory strikes against critical infrastructure across the Gulf region. The warning comes after four consecutive days of strikes against Iranian military targets and has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, with Washington stating the objective is to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following repeated Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. Iranian officials maintained that control of the Strait is not dependent on coastal bases or islands, insisting Tehran retains the ability to control the waterway from across its territory. They also reiterated that reopening the Strait requires U.S. compliance with the previously signed memorandum of understanding and acceptance of Iranian regulations governing vessel transits. The rhetoric comes amid a rapidly widening regional conflict, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks against U.S. forces and partners in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, while analysts continue to warn that Tehran could also seek to pressure global trade by expanding the confrontation to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait through its Houthi allies in Yemen. Source:

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz an inviolable "red line" on Thursday, warning that any U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure, including the power plants and bridges President Donald J. Trump has threatened to target, would trigger retaliatory strikes against critical infrastructure across the Gulf region. The warning comes after four consecutive days of strikes against Iranian military targets and has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports, with Washington stating the objective is to restore freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz following repeated Iranian attacks on commercial shipping. Iranian officials maintained that control of the Strait is not dependent on coastal bases or islands, insisting Tehran retains the ability to control the waterway from across its territory. They also reiterated that reopening the Strait requires U.S. compliance with the previously signed memorandum of understanding and acceptance of Iranian regulations governing vessel transits. The rhetoric comes amid a rapidly widening regional conflict, with Iran launching missile and drone attacks against U.S. forces and partners in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, while analysts continue to warn that Tehran could also seek to pressure global trade by expanding the confrontation to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait through its Houthi allies in Yemen. Source:

OSINTdefender

358,540 次观看 • 28 天前

Strait of Hormuz transit and risk monitor Transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz strengthened over the weekend, with crossings reaching 10 on Saturday and 11 on Sunday, according to #MarineTraffic data. Sanctioned vessels accounted for almost half of Sunday’s movements, highlighting a shift in traffic composition alongside rising volumes. No verified physical attacks or incidents during this period, despite elevated geopolitical rhetoric. While this suggests near term operational stability, evolving political developments may still shape vessel behaviour and risk exposure in the days ahead. Read the latest analysis by Dimitris Ampatzidis, Kpler Senior Risk & Compliance Analyst: Here’s a playback of vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days.

Strait of Hormuz transit and risk monitor Transit activity in the Strait of Hormuz strengthened over the weekend, with crossings reaching 10 on Saturday and 11 on Sunday, according to #MarineTraffic data. Sanctioned vessels accounted for almost half of Sunday’s movements, highlighting a shift in traffic composition alongside rising volumes. No verified physical attacks or incidents during this period, despite elevated geopolitical rhetoric. While this suggests near term operational stability, evolving political developments may still shape vessel behaviour and risk exposure in the days ahead. Read the latest analysis by Dimitris Ampatzidis, Kpler Senior Risk & Compliance Analyst: Here’s a playback of vessel activity in the Strait of Hormuz over the past two days.

MarineTraffic

152,411 次观看 • 4 个月前