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Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly...

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Patrick OShaughnessy

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295,307 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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SF Compute CEO evan conrad on his contrarian thesis that OpenAI and Anthropic won't eat the world, everyone will become OpenAI and Anthropic instead: "Our impression is not that OpenAI and Anthropic will eat the world, it's that everyone will look like OpenAI and Anthropic. That's simply the way that companies work now." "Every single company in the world that is of meaningful scale will look like a frontier lab. There is this belief that the large labs have won it all, and they've got this compounding advantage. The default assumption of that is assuming nobody else will do anything." "The bottleneck was there's 100 people, and they know how to train the models. Or you thought, the problem is compute. The problem of compute is credit. And OpenAI and Anthropic are not unique to having credit. In fact, they don't have as good credit as other people." "If you assume the problem is not the researchers, that that problem's basically gone away the moment you got to auto research, then what you should assume is that pretty much every other company is going to swap the way they work to look like a frontier lab. It won't be OpenAI and Anthropic take the whole world. It's that everyone's OpenAI and Anthropic now." San Francisco Compute
1:32

SF Compute CEO evan conrad on his contrarian thesis that OpenAI and Anthropic won't eat the world, everyone will become OpenAI and Anthropic instead: "Our impression is not that OpenAI and Anthropic will eat the world, it's that everyone will look like OpenAI and Anthropic. That's simply the way that companies work now." "Every single company in the world that is of meaningful scale will look like a frontier lab. There is this belief that the large labs have won it all, and they've got this compounding advantage. The default assumption of that is assuming nobody else will do anything." "The bottleneck was there's 100 people, and they know how to train the models. Or you thought, the problem is compute. The problem of compute is credit. And OpenAI and Anthropic are not unique to having credit. In fact, they don't have as good credit as other people." "If you assume the problem is not the researchers, that that problem's basically gone away the moment you got to auto research, then what you should assume is that pretty much every other company is going to swap the way they work to look like a frontier lab. It won't be OpenAI and Anthropic take the whole world. It's that everyone's OpenAI and Anthropic now." San Francisco Compute

MTS

133,799 views • 17 days ago

Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -
1:16

Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -

Podcast Alpha

26,746 views • 7 days ago

Compute Wars: OpenAI vs Anthopic. Why was Opus 4.5 such a breakthrough? Anthropic got lots more compute from AWS Madison and New Carlisle sites likely more than doubling their capacity. This got Anthropic got close to OpenAI's total capacity, and probably much higher effective capacity available for new model runs. Remember that it takes 6+ months between getting capacity and releasing the model, so the extra OpenAI capacity might be aligning well with the 'spud' model rather than GPT-5.4. Unless something dramatic happens, OpenAI will pull away in terms of compute available in H2 2026, but 2027 will be close. Future years are less certain but so far OpenAI has much higher planned capacity, though can't imagine Anthropic isn't pushing as hard as they can to get lots more compute. Always watch the compute, other things matter, but any new capability breakthrough probably came from throwing more compute at it.
0:22

Compute Wars: OpenAI vs Anthopic. Why was Opus 4.5 such a breakthrough? Anthropic got lots more compute from AWS Madison and New Carlisle sites likely more than doubling their capacity. This got Anthropic got close to OpenAI's total capacity, and probably much higher effective capacity available for new model runs. Remember that it takes 6+ months between getting capacity and releasing the model, so the extra OpenAI capacity might be aligning well with the 'spud' model rather than GPT-5.4. Unless something dramatic happens, OpenAI will pull away in terms of compute available in H2 2026, but 2027 will be close. Future years are less certain but so far OpenAI has much higher planned capacity, though can't imagine Anthropic isn't pushing as hard as they can to get lots more compute. Always watch the compute, other things matter, but any new capability breakthrough probably came from throwing more compute at it.

Peter Gostev

158,528 views • 5 months ago

"You can break AI down into 5 tiers." - George Hotz "Data centers - tier 1, fabs - tier 2, Nvidia/AMD - tier 3, OpenAI/Anthropic - tier 4, and completely worthless things like Cursor and Windsurf, which are tier 5." "OpenAI and Anthropic will eat all the value from the Cursors and Windsurfs of the world. I argue that the tier 4s (OpenAI/Anthropic) aren't even going to have value." From his June 2025 appearance, George Hotz 🌑 really raised eyebrows with this clip when it hit the timeline.
2:25

"You can break AI down into 5 tiers." - George Hotz "Data centers - tier 1, fabs - tier 2, Nvidia/AMD - tier 3, OpenAI/Anthropic - tier 4, and completely worthless things like Cursor and Windsurf, which are tier 5." "OpenAI and Anthropic will eat all the value from the Cursors and Windsurfs of the world. I argue that the tier 4s (OpenAI/Anthropic) aren't even going to have value." From his June 2025 appearance, George Hotz 🌑 really raised eyebrows with this clip when it hit the timeline.

TBPN

1,052,145 views • 10 months ago

Why did Anthropic hold back Mythos? David Sacks: “ Marc Andreessen pointed out that one of the reasons why Anthropic might've wanted to hold back Mythos, is they simply didn't have the compute to serve it. The model was huge and very expensive to serve, something like 10 or 20x the token cost of, say, Opus. They knew Opus 4.7 was coming out, right? So they hold it back knowing that they don't have the compute to serve it anyway, and they save their compute for the next iteration of Opus. And then by holding it back, they create this impression of scarcity and altruism, and it turns into this gigantic marketing event for their product, because everyone in the government's like, 'Oh wow, they're holding it back because it's so amazing.' Now look, I think it may have been genuinely altruistic as well in the sense that Mythos does reveal coding vulnerabilities that people didn't know about before. And it does make sense to give time to companies with large code bases to patch these dormant bugs and vulnerabilities. But, it's looking more and more like Anthropic could not have offered that model commercially anyway, because it was just too big and expensive, and they needed to create space for Opus 4.7. So it's an interesting theory on what actually happened there.”
1:03

Why did Anthropic hold back Mythos? David Sacks: “ Marc Andreessen pointed out that one of the reasons why Anthropic might've wanted to hold back Mythos, is they simply didn't have the compute to serve it. The model was huge and very expensive to serve, something like 10 or 20x the token cost of, say, Opus. They knew Opus 4.7 was coming out, right? So they hold it back knowing that they don't have the compute to serve it anyway, and they save their compute for the next iteration of Opus. And then by holding it back, they create this impression of scarcity and altruism, and it turns into this gigantic marketing event for their product, because everyone in the government's like, 'Oh wow, they're holding it back because it's so amazing.' Now look, I think it may have been genuinely altruistic as well in the sense that Mythos does reveal coding vulnerabilities that people didn't know about before. And it does make sense to give time to companies with large code bases to patch these dormant bugs and vulnerabilities. But, it's looking more and more like Anthropic could not have offered that model commercially anyway, because it was just too big and expensive, and they needed to create space for Opus 4.7. So it's an interesting theory on what actually happened there.”

The All-In Podcast

170,853 views • 4 months ago

Anthropic is in trouble and nobody wants to say it out loud. Opus 4.7 is the first Claude model people think is worse, usage limits are hitting fast, compute is running thin, and Anthropic's best model still isn't out. GPT-5.5 just dropped today, OpenAI found their window. This 32 minute video is worth more than the next episode of whatever you're watching on Netflix tonight.
32:30

Anthropic is in trouble and nobody wants to say it out loud. Opus 4.7 is the first Claude model people think is worse, usage limits are hitting fast, compute is running thin, and Anthropic's best model still isn't out. GPT-5.5 just dropped today, OpenAI found their window. This 32 minute video is worth more than the next episode of whatever you're watching on Netflix tonight.

Defileo🔮

131,838 views • 4 months ago

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.
1:25

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Macro

55,169 views • 3 months ago

Chris Camillo made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.
1:25

Chris Camillo made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Stocks

41,351 views • 1 month ago

OpenAI and Anthropic can take compute which costs them $15b a GW, and turn it into $50b+ of revenue. In order to get the credit to build their datacenters, most neoclouds have already signed long term contracts to supply compute at these $15b/GW rates. However, Meta and SpaceX, who have a GW+ of discretionary compute supported by their own balance sheet, can take advantage of this surge in compute prices and sell short-term contracts at the much higher rate that the leading labs (who are best able to monetize this compute) are willing to bid for.
1:37

OpenAI and Anthropic can take compute which costs them $15b a GW, and turn it into $50b+ of revenue. In order to get the credit to build their datacenters, most neoclouds have already signed long term contracts to supply compute at these $15b/GW rates. However, Meta and SpaceX, who have a GW+ of discretionary compute supported by their own balance sheet, can take advantage of this surge in compute prices and sell short-term contracts at the much higher rate that the leading labs (who are best able to monetize this compute) are willing to bid for.

Dwarkesh Patel

53,789 views • 16 days ago

Baseten's Charlie O'Neill on why the gap to the frontier is just compute and data: "Despite OpenAI and Anthropic and the closed source labs having more compute and more data, the recipe is the same. We're all scaling the same recipe here, and we're at slightly different points of the scaling curve. It's not like OpenAI or Anthropic have any secret sauce that differentiates them scaling up their multi-trillion parameter models from the rest of the open source ecosystem." "It really is just a matter of taking the core underlying architecture and training recipe, and throwing more compute and data at it, which is really promising." "Of course, these closed source labs probably have a long tail of optimizations they've made, which we're gonna continue to try and figure out in the open source community. But the core mechanism is there." "K3 is a great example of, well, if you do scale this recipe up, we're gonna get a pretty good model that's very, very close to the frontier, if not frontier itself." Charlie O'Neill Baseten
1:51

Baseten's Charlie O'Neill on why the gap to the frontier is just compute and data: "Despite OpenAI and Anthropic and the closed source labs having more compute and more data, the recipe is the same. We're all scaling the same recipe here, and we're at slightly different points of the scaling curve. It's not like OpenAI or Anthropic have any secret sauce that differentiates them scaling up their multi-trillion parameter models from the rest of the open source ecosystem." "It really is just a matter of taking the core underlying architecture and training recipe, and throwing more compute and data at it, which is really promising." "Of course, these closed source labs probably have a long tail of optimizations they've made, which we're gonna continue to try and figure out in the open source community. But the core mechanism is there." "K3 is a great example of, well, if you do scale this recipe up, we're gonna get a pretty good model that's very, very close to the frontier, if not frontier itself." Charlie O'Neill Baseten

MTS

17,404 views • 1 month ago

Chamath Palihapitiya, one of the most connected investors in tech and his warning is the clearest framing of the AI compute crisis anyone has put into words. "It is a five alarm fire for them. They need to have land, power, shell." He's talking about Anthropic and OpenAI and the threat he's describing is called the Friendster effect. Friendster was the dominant social network before MySpace and Facebook and it didn't lose because it had a bad product but rather it lost because it couldn't keep the site up. Demand outpaced infrastructure, the experience degraded, and users left for one that actually worked. Chamath's argument is that OpenAI and Anthropic are approaching exactly that moment. The numbers are already showing it, Anthropic is growing so fast that it had to cut Claude's thinking depth during peak hours, cap agentic sessions, and test removing Claude Code from its $20 plan entirely. GitHub Copilot paused new signups, paying enterprise customers are hitting usage walls they've never seen before. Dario Amodei himself admitted there is "no hedge on earth" against the risk of over-purchasing compute meaning he's deliberately staying lean on capacity, even as the demand wall approaches. The core problem is structural, OpenAI and Anthropic grew up renting capacity from hyperscalers AWS, Azure, Google Cloud. That was fine when they were small but now they're so large that dependency is a strategic liability. Every token they sell runs on someone else's infrastructure and every capacity decision belongs to someone else. And when demand spikes faster than anyone planned, there's nothing they can do in real time except throttle. Building your own infrastructure takes 18 to 24 months minimum, you need to acquire land, secure power, construct shell and none of that happens fast. That's why Google's $40 billion commitment to Anthropic this week is about more than just money but rather about securing the land, power, and infrastructure that Anthropic needs to not become Friendster. Whoever controls the compute controls the frontier and right now, the AI labs with the best products are the most dependent on infrastructure they don't own.
0:31

Chamath Palihapitiya, one of the most connected investors in tech and his warning is the clearest framing of the AI compute crisis anyone has put into words. "It is a five alarm fire for them. They need to have land, power, shell." He's talking about Anthropic and OpenAI and the threat he's describing is called the Friendster effect. Friendster was the dominant social network before MySpace and Facebook and it didn't lose because it had a bad product but rather it lost because it couldn't keep the site up. Demand outpaced infrastructure, the experience degraded, and users left for one that actually worked. Chamath's argument is that OpenAI and Anthropic are approaching exactly that moment. The numbers are already showing it, Anthropic is growing so fast that it had to cut Claude's thinking depth during peak hours, cap agentic sessions, and test removing Claude Code from its $20 plan entirely. GitHub Copilot paused new signups, paying enterprise customers are hitting usage walls they've never seen before. Dario Amodei himself admitted there is "no hedge on earth" against the risk of over-purchasing compute meaning he's deliberately staying lean on capacity, even as the demand wall approaches. The core problem is structural, OpenAI and Anthropic grew up renting capacity from hyperscalers AWS, Azure, Google Cloud. That was fine when they were small but now they're so large that dependency is a strategic liability. Every token they sell runs on someone else's infrastructure and every capacity decision belongs to someone else. And when demand spikes faster than anyone planned, there's nothing they can do in real time except throttle. Building your own infrastructure takes 18 to 24 months minimum, you need to acquire land, secure power, construct shell and none of that happens fast. That's why Google's $40 billion commitment to Anthropic this week is about more than just money but rather about securing the land, power, and infrastructure that Anthropic needs to not become Friendster. Whoever controls the compute controls the frontier and right now, the AI labs with the best products are the most dependent on infrastructure they don't own.

Milk Road AI

260,300 views • 4 months ago

Dylan on why access to the most intelligent AI models will determine who wins in every industry: "What really matters is access to the most intelligent tokens and leveraging them at the highest-value tasks. A lot of folks will want tokens, but the shitty SaaS startup in SF who is using Claude is not necessarily creating a ton of value, and therefore they're going to get priced out of tokens. Anthropic only released Mythos to certain companies for cybersecurity. You also don't want people to distill your model so you release them to a fewer and fewer customers. Those customers are now wrestling over the tokens. Token usage and therefore the additional value generated on top of those tokens aggregates among fewer and fewer companies. I don't have Mythos but you know who has Mythos, top banks. There are people like Ken Griffin of Citadel who can just sign a deal with OpenAI or Antrhopic for access to your models. I'll buy the first $10 billion worth of tokens each year. So whenever you release the model, I'll spend the first 10 billion tokens and then everyone else can get the model after that. Now, he's going to crush everyone in the markets. I can envision because I have an enterprise Anthropic contract and Anthropic people like me, they're willing to give us slightly earlier access or higher rate limits, and then my competitor doesn't have that, and I'm able to f*cking crush them."
2:22

Dylan on why access to the most intelligent AI models will determine who wins in every industry: "What really matters is access to the most intelligent tokens and leveraging them at the highest-value tasks. A lot of folks will want tokens, but the shitty SaaS startup in SF who is using Claude is not necessarily creating a ton of value, and therefore they're going to get priced out of tokens. Anthropic only released Mythos to certain companies for cybersecurity. You also don't want people to distill your model so you release them to a fewer and fewer customers. Those customers are now wrestling over the tokens. Token usage and therefore the additional value generated on top of those tokens aggregates among fewer and fewer companies. I don't have Mythos but you know who has Mythos, top banks. There are people like Ken Griffin of Citadel who can just sign a deal with OpenAI or Antrhopic for access to your models. I'll buy the first $10 billion worth of tokens each year. So whenever you release the model, I'll spend the first 10 billion tokens and then everyone else can get the model after that. Now, he's going to crush everyone in the markets. I can envision because I have an enterprise Anthropic contract and Anthropic people like me, they're willing to give us slightly earlier access or higher rate limits, and then my competitor doesn't have that, and I'm able to f*cking crush them."

Patrick OShaughnessy

36,100 views • 4 months ago

Brad Gerstner, running the numbers on Elon's next 6 gigawatts of compute: "it's $50 billion per gigawatt to build minimum - so you're $300 billion" This is him explaining why the frontier labs will overpay 3-5X the market to get compute, why almost nobody but Elon can stand one of these up in a year, and why he thinks the whole thing turns violent the moment demand slips Tthey're willing to pay 3, 4, 5X market pricing in order to get at scale compute" "Probably only Elon can actually stand up that much in that time frame - like Jensen said to me on the pod, it's like nobody comes close - Microsoft doesn't come close - Google doesn't come close" "This year Anthropic and OpenAI combined, their starting total compute was like 5 gigawatts - so he's talking about incrementally adding more than they had as combined companies" "You're effectively backstopping people's ability to build ahead of their revenue - so it becomes much more violent if you ever see demand slippage" "Credit spreads are blowing - have continued to stay wide on these deals" Bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
5:32

Brad Gerstner, running the numbers on Elon's next 6 gigawatts of compute: "it's $50 billion per gigawatt to build minimum - so you're $300 billion" This is him explaining why the frontier labs will overpay 3-5X the market to get compute, why almost nobody but Elon can stand one of these up in a year, and why he thinks the whole thing turns violent the moment demand slips Tthey're willing to pay 3, 4, 5X market pricing in order to get at scale compute" "Probably only Elon can actually stand up that much in that time frame - like Jensen said to me on the pod, it's like nobody comes close - Microsoft doesn't come close - Google doesn't come close" "This year Anthropic and OpenAI combined, their starting total compute was like 5 gigawatts - so he's talking about incrementally adding more than they had as combined companies" "You're effectively backstopping people's ability to build ahead of their revenue - so it becomes much more violent if you ever see demand slippage" "Credit spreads are blowing - have continued to stay wide on these deals" Bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Fireside Alpha

106,439 views • 1 month ago

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?
2:25

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?

Ricardo

35,020 views • 5 months ago

Jason Calacanis @jason on Nvidia: "I believe right now, starting today, Nvidia is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens but for enterprise compute and I think now Jensen is the leading open source provider in America. I think he's going to take the world, he's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models I think by the end of 2027. And then that means you're going to have a player...I am more convinced than ever now that we can win the race, because Jensen represents open source globally. He's going to be able to take a rack of compute, bring it into a company that is currently using tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic and say here's your rack, soup to nuts, complete vertical solution and you have total sovereignty and i'm reducing your prices 80 or 90% cause I don't need to make money off the tokens I made money off the hardware." Via The All-In Podcast $NVDA
1:57

Jason Calacanis @jason on Nvidia: "I believe right now, starting today, Nvidia is the number one competitor for OpenAI and Anthropic, not just for tokens but for enterprise compute and I think now Jensen is the leading open source provider in America. I think he's going to take the world, he's going to catch up and blow past China and the Chinese models I think by the end of 2027. And then that means you're going to have a player...I am more convinced than ever now that we can win the race, because Jensen represents open source globally. He's going to be able to take a rack of compute, bring it into a company that is currently using tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic and say here's your rack, soup to nuts, complete vertical solution and you have total sovereignty and i'm reducing your prices 80 or 90% cause I don't need to make money off the tokens I made money off the hardware." Via The All-In Podcast $NVDA

P Equity Research 📰

58,653 views • 6 days ago

Hugging Face acquisition explained “A man making $120BN a year selling compute decides to buy a company that helps make compute more cost-effective so he can sell more compute. If end users have $1TN to spend on tokens, Nvidia would prefer that money flow through open-source people at 30% gross margins, rather than 70% gross margins at OpenAI or Anthropic. Open source is good for compute salespeople. If you are selling GPUs, you want everyone else’s margin to be lower so yours can be higher.” Rory O'Driscoll Love to hear your thoughts Vipul Ved Prakash Naveen Rao Bindu Reddy George Hotz 🌑
0:57

Hugging Face acquisition explained “A man making $120BN a year selling compute decides to buy a company that helps make compute more cost-effective so he can sell more compute. If end users have $1TN to spend on tokens, Nvidia would prefer that money flow through open-source people at 30% gross margins, rather than 70% gross margins at OpenAI or Anthropic. Open source is good for compute salespeople. If you are selling GPUs, you want everyone else’s margin to be lower so yours can be higher.” Rory O'Driscoll Love to hear your thoughts Vipul Ved Prakash Naveen Rao Bindu Reddy George Hotz 🌑

Harry Stebbings

71,375 views • 8 days ago

OpenAI and Anthropic haven't won the enterprise AI market yet. “When you get a CIO one-on-one, they’re not happy with what Anthropic is trying to do. They're not happy with what OpenAI is bringing to the enterprise.” "I think ultimately, OpenAI is a consumer AI company. Anthropic is a coding model company, and the enterprise is actually really, really wide open and incredibly diverse in terms of the winners" — May Habib, CEO of WRITER
0:59

OpenAI and Anthropic haven't won the enterprise AI market yet. “When you get a CIO one-on-one, they’re not happy with what Anthropic is trying to do. They're not happy with what OpenAI is bringing to the enterprise.” "I think ultimately, OpenAI is a consumer AI company. Anthropic is a coding model company, and the enterprise is actually really, really wide open and incredibly diverse in terms of the winners" — May Habib, CEO of WRITER

The Information

41,029 views • 29 days ago

.Dylan Patel thinks Anthropic will get to 5–6 GW by year end. But at a far higher cost than it would have had to pay if it had gone crazy on compute commitments early like OpenAI did. Ant will get the compute either through cloud partners like Bedrock and Vertex who take ~50% gross margin on revenue, or shorter-term deals where rates have climbed well above what long-term contracts locked in a year or two ago cost. They’ll probably also have to destroy demand by pushing up model prices.
2:16

.Dylan Patel thinks Anthropic will get to 5–6 GW by year end. But at a far higher cost than it would have had to pay if it had gone crazy on compute commitments early like OpenAI did. Ant will get the compute either through cloud partners like Bedrock and Vertex who take ~50% gross margin on revenue, or shorter-term deals where rates have climbed well above what long-term contracts locked in a year or two ago cost. They’ll probably also have to destroy demand by pushing up model prices.

Dwarkesh Patel

55,447 views • 5 months ago

This is the best take I have heard around the existing AI landscape today Fantastic explanation around the constraints at OpenAI and Anthropic, focus on enterprise business models, and the doomerism narrative in AI From former AI czar David Sacks "Even though Anthropic's revenue has followed this exponential graph very predictably, it cannot do that ever. The reason is that as you hit new levels of scale, you encounter new problems. You are simply going to run out of compute, electricity, data centers, and infrastructure. There are limits to the physical world you are going to hit. And there is already evidence that Anthropic is hitting some of those limits."
4:27

This is the best take I have heard around the existing AI landscape today Fantastic explanation around the constraints at OpenAI and Anthropic, focus on enterprise business models, and the doomerism narrative in AI From former AI czar David Sacks "Even though Anthropic's revenue has followed this exponential graph very predictably, it cannot do that ever. The reason is that as you hit new levels of scale, you encounter new problems. You are simply going to run out of compute, electricity, data centers, and infrastructure. There are limits to the physical world you are going to hit. And there is already evidence that Anthropic is hitting some of those limits."

Boring_Business

236,490 views • 4 months ago

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."
2:22

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

Jack Kuhr

44,998 views • 3 months ago