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Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly...

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Patrick OShaughnessy

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295,138 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Compute Wars: OpenAI vs Anthopic. Why was Opus 4.5 such a breakthrough? Anthropic got lots more compute from AWS Madison and New Carlisle sites likely more than doubling their capacity. This got Anthropic got close to OpenAI's total capacity, and probably much higher effective capacity available for new model runs. Remember that it takes 6+ months between getting capacity and releasing the model, so the extra OpenAI capacity might be aligning well with the 'spud' model rather than GPT-5.4. Unless something dramatic happens, OpenAI will pull away in terms of compute available in H2 2026, but 2027 will be close. Future years are less certain but so far OpenAI has much higher planned capacity, though can't imagine Anthropic isn't pushing as hard as they can to get lots more compute. Always watch the compute, other things matter, but any new capability breakthrough probably came from throwing more compute at it.
0:22

Compute Wars: OpenAI vs Anthopic. Why was Opus 4.5 such a breakthrough? Anthropic got lots more compute from AWS Madison and New Carlisle sites likely more than doubling their capacity. This got Anthropic got close to OpenAI's total capacity, and probably much higher effective capacity available for new model runs. Remember that it takes 6+ months between getting capacity and releasing the model, so the extra OpenAI capacity might be aligning well with the 'spud' model rather than GPT-5.4. Unless something dramatic happens, OpenAI will pull away in terms of compute available in H2 2026, but 2027 will be close. Future years are less certain but so far OpenAI has much higher planned capacity, though can't imagine Anthropic isn't pushing as hard as they can to get lots more compute. Always watch the compute, other things matter, but any new capability breakthrough probably came from throwing more compute at it.

Peter Gostev

157,413 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

"You can break AI down into 5 tiers." - George Hotz "Data centers - tier 1, fabs - tier 2, Nvidia/AMD - tier 3, OpenAI/Anthropic - tier 4, and completely worthless things like Cursor and Windsurf, which are tier 5." "OpenAI and Anthropic will eat all the value from the Cursors and Windsurfs of the world. I argue that the tier 4s (OpenAI/Anthropic) aren't even going to have value." From his June 2025 appearance, George Hotz 🌑 really raised eyebrows with this clip when it hit the timeline.
2:25

"You can break AI down into 5 tiers." - George Hotz "Data centers - tier 1, fabs - tier 2, Nvidia/AMD - tier 3, OpenAI/Anthropic - tier 4, and completely worthless things like Cursor and Windsurf, which are tier 5." "OpenAI and Anthropic will eat all the value from the Cursors and Windsurfs of the world. I argue that the tier 4s (OpenAI/Anthropic) aren't even going to have value." From his June 2025 appearance, George Hotz 🌑 really raised eyebrows with this clip when it hit the timeline.

TBPN

1,052,145 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Why did Anthropic hold back Mythos? David Sacks: “ Marc Andreessen pointed out that one of the reasons why Anthropic might've wanted to hold back Mythos, is they simply didn't have the compute to serve it. The model was huge and very expensive to serve, something like 10 or 20x the token cost of, say, Opus. They knew Opus 4.7 was coming out, right? So they hold it back knowing that they don't have the compute to serve it anyway, and they save their compute for the next iteration of Opus. And then by holding it back, they create this impression of scarcity and altruism, and it turns into this gigantic marketing event for their product, because everyone in the government's like, 'Oh wow, they're holding it back because it's so amazing.' Now look, I think it may have been genuinely altruistic as well in the sense that Mythos does reveal coding vulnerabilities that people didn't know about before. And it does make sense to give time to companies with large code bases to patch these dormant bugs and vulnerabilities. But, it's looking more and more like Anthropic could not have offered that model commercially anyway, because it was just too big and expensive, and they needed to create space for Opus 4.7. So it's an interesting theory on what actually happened there.”
1:03

Why did Anthropic hold back Mythos? David Sacks: “ Marc Andreessen pointed out that one of the reasons why Anthropic might've wanted to hold back Mythos, is they simply didn't have the compute to serve it. The model was huge and very expensive to serve, something like 10 or 20x the token cost of, say, Opus. They knew Opus 4.7 was coming out, right? So they hold it back knowing that they don't have the compute to serve it anyway, and they save their compute for the next iteration of Opus. And then by holding it back, they create this impression of scarcity and altruism, and it turns into this gigantic marketing event for their product, because everyone in the government's like, 'Oh wow, they're holding it back because it's so amazing.' Now look, I think it may have been genuinely altruistic as well in the sense that Mythos does reveal coding vulnerabilities that people didn't know about before. And it does make sense to give time to companies with large code bases to patch these dormant bugs and vulnerabilities. But, it's looking more and more like Anthropic could not have offered that model commercially anyway, because it was just too big and expensive, and they needed to create space for Opus 4.7. So it's an interesting theory on what actually happened there.”

The All-In Podcast

170,208 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Anthropic is in trouble and nobody wants to say it out loud. Opus 4.7 is the first Claude model people think is worse, usage limits are hitting fast, compute is running thin, and Anthropic's best model still isn't out. GPT-5.5 just dropped today, OpenAI found their window. This 32 minute video is worth more than the next episode of whatever you're watching on Netflix tonight.
32:30

Anthropic is in trouble and nobody wants to say it out loud. Opus 4.7 is the first Claude model people think is worse, usage limits are hitting fast, compute is running thin, and Anthropic's best model still isn't out. GPT-5.5 just dropped today, OpenAI found their window. This 32 minute video is worth more than the next episode of whatever you're watching on Netflix tonight.

Defileo🔮

131,838 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.
1:25

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Macro

55,169 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?
2:25

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?

Ricardo

35,020 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Chamath Palihapitiya, one of the most connected investors in tech and his warning is the clearest framing of the AI compute crisis anyone has put into words. "It is a five alarm fire for them. They need to have land, power, shell." He's talking about Anthropic and OpenAI and the threat he's describing is called the Friendster effect. Friendster was the dominant social network before MySpace and Facebook and it didn't lose because it had a bad product but rather it lost because it couldn't keep the site up. Demand outpaced infrastructure, the experience degraded, and users left for one that actually worked. Chamath's argument is that OpenAI and Anthropic are approaching exactly that moment. The numbers are already showing it, Anthropic is growing so fast that it had to cut Claude's thinking depth during peak hours, cap agentic sessions, and test removing Claude Code from its $20 plan entirely. GitHub Copilot paused new signups, paying enterprise customers are hitting usage walls they've never seen before. Dario Amodei himself admitted there is "no hedge on earth" against the risk of over-purchasing compute meaning he's deliberately staying lean on capacity, even as the demand wall approaches. The core problem is structural, OpenAI and Anthropic grew up renting capacity from hyperscalers AWS, Azure, Google Cloud. That was fine when they were small but now they're so large that dependency is a strategic liability. Every token they sell runs on someone else's infrastructure and every capacity decision belongs to someone else. And when demand spikes faster than anyone planned, there's nothing they can do in real time except throttle. Building your own infrastructure takes 18 to 24 months minimum, you need to acquire land, secure power, construct shell and none of that happens fast. That's why Google's $40 billion commitment to Anthropic this week is about more than just money but rather about securing the land, power, and infrastructure that Anthropic needs to not become Friendster. Whoever controls the compute controls the frontier and right now, the AI labs with the best products are the most dependent on infrastructure they don't own.
0:31

Chamath Palihapitiya, one of the most connected investors in tech and his warning is the clearest framing of the AI compute crisis anyone has put into words. "It is a five alarm fire for them. They need to have land, power, shell." He's talking about Anthropic and OpenAI and the threat he's describing is called the Friendster effect. Friendster was the dominant social network before MySpace and Facebook and it didn't lose because it had a bad product but rather it lost because it couldn't keep the site up. Demand outpaced infrastructure, the experience degraded, and users left for one that actually worked. Chamath's argument is that OpenAI and Anthropic are approaching exactly that moment. The numbers are already showing it, Anthropic is growing so fast that it had to cut Claude's thinking depth during peak hours, cap agentic sessions, and test removing Claude Code from its $20 plan entirely. GitHub Copilot paused new signups, paying enterprise customers are hitting usage walls they've never seen before. Dario Amodei himself admitted there is "no hedge on earth" against the risk of over-purchasing compute meaning he's deliberately staying lean on capacity, even as the demand wall approaches. The core problem is structural, OpenAI and Anthropic grew up renting capacity from hyperscalers AWS, Azure, Google Cloud. That was fine when they were small but now they're so large that dependency is a strategic liability. Every token they sell runs on someone else's infrastructure and every capacity decision belongs to someone else. And when demand spikes faster than anyone planned, there's nothing they can do in real time except throttle. Building your own infrastructure takes 18 to 24 months minimum, you need to acquire land, secure power, construct shell and none of that happens fast. That's why Google's $40 billion commitment to Anthropic this week is about more than just money but rather about securing the land, power, and infrastructure that Anthropic needs to not become Friendster. Whoever controls the compute controls the frontier and right now, the AI labs with the best products are the most dependent on infrastructure they don't own.

Milk Road AI

260,300 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Dylan on why access to the most intelligent AI models will determine who wins in every industry: "What really matters is access to the most intelligent tokens and leveraging them at the highest-value tasks. A lot of folks will want tokens, but the shitty SaaS startup in SF who is using Claude is not necessarily creating a ton of value, and therefore they're going to get priced out of tokens. Anthropic only released Mythos to certain companies for cybersecurity. You also don't want people to distill your model so you release them to a fewer and fewer customers. Those customers are now wrestling over the tokens. Token usage and therefore the additional value generated on top of those tokens aggregates among fewer and fewer companies. I don't have Mythos but you know who has Mythos, top banks. There are people like Ken Griffin of Citadel who can just sign a deal with OpenAI or Antrhopic for access to your models. I'll buy the first $10 billion worth of tokens each year. So whenever you release the model, I'll spend the first 10 billion tokens and then everyone else can get the model after that. Now, he's going to crush everyone in the markets. I can envision because I have an enterprise Anthropic contract and Anthropic people like me, they're willing to give us slightly earlier access or higher rate limits, and then my competitor doesn't have that, and I'm able to f*cking crush them."
2:22

Dylan on why access to the most intelligent AI models will determine who wins in every industry: "What really matters is access to the most intelligent tokens and leveraging them at the highest-value tasks. A lot of folks will want tokens, but the shitty SaaS startup in SF who is using Claude is not necessarily creating a ton of value, and therefore they're going to get priced out of tokens. Anthropic only released Mythos to certain companies for cybersecurity. You also don't want people to distill your model so you release them to a fewer and fewer customers. Those customers are now wrestling over the tokens. Token usage and therefore the additional value generated on top of those tokens aggregates among fewer and fewer companies. I don't have Mythos but you know who has Mythos, top banks. There are people like Ken Griffin of Citadel who can just sign a deal with OpenAI or Antrhopic for access to your models. I'll buy the first $10 billion worth of tokens each year. So whenever you release the model, I'll spend the first 10 billion tokens and then everyone else can get the model after that. Now, he's going to crush everyone in the markets. I can envision because I have an enterprise Anthropic contract and Anthropic people like me, they're willing to give us slightly earlier access or higher rate limits, and then my competitor doesn't have that, and I'm able to f*cking crush them."

Patrick OShaughnessy

36,100 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."
2:22

.Shaun Maguire says SpaceX's data center deal with Google may suggest there is something fundamentally different about the company's terrestrial compute. "I think a lot of people were surprised by the Anthropic and Google announcements. And I think a lot of people are getting the wrong takeaway there." "The way a lot of people are interpreting that is it's like, 'oh, we're just in this temporary compute shortage. And so anyone's willing to work with anyone, and they're willing to pay any price for compute.'" "I think that might be a reasonable way to look at the Anthropic announcement. I don't think that makes sense for looking at the Google announcement." "To me, I think an alternative hypothesis is that SpaceX's terrestrial compute is not actually a commodity. There's something that's better about it than other people's terrestrial compute."

Jack Kuhr

44,998 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

.Dylan Patel thinks Anthropic will get to 5–6 GW by year end. But at a far higher cost than it would have had to pay if it had gone crazy on compute commitments early like OpenAI did. Ant will get the compute either through cloud partners like Bedrock and Vertex who take ~50% gross margin on revenue, or shorter-term deals where rates have climbed well above what long-term contracts locked in a year or two ago cost. They’ll probably also have to destroy demand by pushing up model prices.
2:16

.Dylan Patel thinks Anthropic will get to 5–6 GW by year end. But at a far higher cost than it would have had to pay if it had gone crazy on compute commitments early like OpenAI did. Ant will get the compute either through cloud partners like Bedrock and Vertex who take ~50% gross margin on revenue, or shorter-term deals where rates have climbed well above what long-term contracts locked in a year or two ago cost. They’ll probably also have to destroy demand by pushing up model prices.

Dwarkesh Patel

55,447 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

This is the best take I have heard around the existing AI landscape today Fantastic explanation around the constraints at OpenAI and Anthropic, focus on enterprise business models, and the doomerism narrative in AI From former AI czar David Sacks "Even though Anthropic's revenue has followed this exponential graph very predictably, it cannot do that ever. The reason is that as you hit new levels of scale, you encounter new problems. You are simply going to run out of compute, electricity, data centers, and infrastructure. There are limits to the physical world you are going to hit. And there is already evidence that Anthropic is hitting some of those limits."
4:27

This is the best take I have heard around the existing AI landscape today Fantastic explanation around the constraints at OpenAI and Anthropic, focus on enterprise business models, and the doomerism narrative in AI From former AI czar David Sacks "Even though Anthropic's revenue has followed this exponential graph very predictably, it cannot do that ever. The reason is that as you hit new levels of scale, you encounter new problems. You are simply going to run out of compute, electricity, data centers, and infrastructure. There are limits to the physical world you are going to hit. And there is already evidence that Anthropic is hitting some of those limits."

Boring_Business

236,380 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”
0:55

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

The All-In Podcast

84,353 просмотров • 29 дней назад

Dylan Patel on Anthropic: "I think by Q3 they may even be profitable including SBC. Their margins on Opus 4.8 token is north of 80% for API price. They have a lot of deals where their total corporate gross margin gets clawed down a little bit because of how they do deals. They have the capability to pay, buying GPUs at above market rate. It is something other companies can't necessarily do. Every GPU I rent because I am out of compute capacity, I can immediately turn around and sell tokens on it or every TPU or Trainium at a positive margin. If I am running at 75% gross margins and I double the cost of compute, its fine I am still running at 50% gross margins. My NOI still goes up, so I will rent GPUs at almost whatever price I want to pay." Via Sequoia Capital
1:29

Dylan Patel on Anthropic: "I think by Q3 they may even be profitable including SBC. Their margins on Opus 4.8 token is north of 80% for API price. They have a lot of deals where their total corporate gross margin gets clawed down a little bit because of how they do deals. They have the capability to pay, buying GPUs at above market rate. It is something other companies can't necessarily do. Every GPU I rent because I am out of compute capacity, I can immediately turn around and sell tokens on it or every TPU or Trainium at a positive margin. If I am running at 75% gross margins and I double the cost of compute, its fine I am still running at 50% gross margins. My NOI still goes up, so I will rent GPUs at almost whatever price I want to pay." Via Sequoia Capital

P Equity Research 📰

73,740 просмотров • 27 дней назад

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is heating up. Jordi Visser says "Sam Altman in my guess is not going to be the leader of OpenAI at some point soon." "I would be shocked within a year if he is still running OpenAI." "I am not sure it is fun to be in that position right now...Sam Altman seems to have nobody who really likes him, but the product people do like." "In the end, OpenAI has an uphill battle because they made a bad decision. They tried to choose the consumer, Apple side as opposed to the enterprise side." "I just think in the end Anthropic is the winner of that battle."
1:17

The battle between Anthropic and OpenAI is heating up. Jordi Visser says "Sam Altman in my guess is not going to be the leader of OpenAI at some point soon." "I would be shocked within a year if he is still running OpenAI." "I am not sure it is fun to be in that position right now...Sam Altman seems to have nobody who really likes him, but the product people do like." "In the end, OpenAI has an uphill battle because they made a bad decision. They tried to choose the consumer, Apple side as opposed to the enterprise side." "I just think in the end Anthropic is the winner of that battle."

Anthony Pompliano 🌪

106,184 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Anthropic built a model so powerful they can’t afford to release it. their own leaked blog says Capybara scores “dramatically higher” than Opus 4.6 in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity. a tier above anything they’ve ever shipped. Dario predicted $10 billion training runs by 2026. Capybara is also rumored to be a 10 trillion parameter model. if this is true, it’s gonna be the most expensive AI ever built. the catch? it’s so compute intensive that Anthropic themselves say it’s “very expensive for us to serve, and will be very expensive for our customers to use.” they didn’t build Jarvis. they built Ultron and now they’re figuring out how to let us near it without going broke or breaking the internet.
0:24

Anthropic built a model so powerful they can’t afford to release it. their own leaked blog says Capybara scores “dramatically higher” than Opus 4.6 in coding, reasoning, and cybersecurity. a tier above anything they’ve ever shipped. Dario predicted $10 billion training runs by 2026. Capybara is also rumored to be a 10 trillion parameter model. if this is true, it’s gonna be the most expensive AI ever built. the catch? it’s so compute intensive that Anthropic themselves say it’s “very expensive for us to serve, and will be very expensive for our customers to use.” they didn’t build Jarvis. they built Ultron and now they’re figuring out how to let us near it without going broke or breaking the internet.

sui ☄️

1,177,549 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?
1:05

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

92,971 просмотров • 20 дней назад

Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei: "Half of entry-level white-collar jobs could be gone in one to five years." 3 things he said during the interview. The third, OpenAI completely ignores. One: inside Anthropic, engineers say "I don't write code anymore. The model does." Two: the real trigger isn't jobs. It's AI that builds AI, and the loop may close this year. Three: how soon superhuman AI actually lands. The massive buffers they are raising because the compute explosion is moving faster than anticipated. Save it. Reread in 2028 and see who was right.
11:59

Anthropic CEO, Dario Amodei: "Half of entry-level white-collar jobs could be gone in one to five years." 3 things he said during the interview. The third, OpenAI completely ignores. One: inside Anthropic, engineers say "I don't write code anymore. The model does." Two: the real trigger isn't jobs. It's AI that builds AI, and the loop may close this year. Three: how soon superhuman AI actually lands. The massive buffers they are raising because the compute explosion is moving faster than anticipated. Save it. Reread in 2028 and see who was right.

Ridark

14,555 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Elon Musk on how his actions unintentionally accelerated AI: “I guess the only thing we can try to do is minimize the probability of a bad outcome. For the longest time, I declined to participate in AI. I created OpenAI essentially as a counterweight to Google because, at the time, they were more or less a monopoly on AI. Then Anthropic spun out of OpenAI. If anything, it seems like my actions have really accelerated AI. I wasn’t aiming to accelerate AI, but creating OpenAI, and then having Anthropic spin out of it, resulted in knock-on effects that accelerated AI, which wasn’t really my intention. It just seems like all roads lead to the acceleration of AI. So then I’m like, okay, you can either be sad about it or join the club.”
1:25

Elon Musk on how his actions unintentionally accelerated AI: “I guess the only thing we can try to do is minimize the probability of a bad outcome. For the longest time, I declined to participate in AI. I created OpenAI essentially as a counterweight to Google because, at the time, they were more or less a monopoly on AI. Then Anthropic spun out of OpenAI. If anything, it seems like my actions have really accelerated AI. I wasn’t aiming to accelerate AI, but creating OpenAI, and then having Anthropic spin out of it, resulted in knock-on effects that accelerated AI, which wasn’t really my intention. It just seems like all roads lead to the acceleration of AI. So then I’m like, okay, you can either be sad about it or join the club.”

DogeDesigner

33,625 просмотров • 5 дней назад

Google just got executed by a Nobel Prize winner, the inventor of modern AI, and Donald Trump. They literally LOST the AI race in the most brutal way possible. Here is what happened: 5 days ago, Trump told Axios that Anthropic was a national security threat and warned that "people get put in prison immediately" for what the company had been doing with its frontier model exports. 4 days ago, Trump met Dario Amodei at the G7 AI Summit and walked out telling reporters Dario was a "nice guy, smart guy" who had "responded very responsibly." 3 days ago, Noam Shazeer, the co-author of "Attention Is All You Need" (the paper that invented the transformer architecture powering EVERY modern AI model on Earth), walked out of Google to join OpenAI. Yesterday, John Jumper, the 2024 Nobel Prize winner who co-created AlphaFold and ran Google DeepMind's protein structure team for nearly a decade, announced he was leaving to join Anthropic. And this is NOT a coincidence or a normal talent shuffle... Demis Hassabis, who shared the Nobel Prize with Jumper just 18 months ago, had to publicly THANK his own co-laureate for defecting to a rival lab. The man who shared the highest scientific honor in the world with you is now going to work for the people trying to put you out of business. This is what the end of a war looks like. The AI race was never going to be decided by chips, capital, or compute. There are only about 50 people on Earth who can actually build a frontier model from scratch. Google invented the field and trained most of them. They had the largest concentration of them anywhere on the planet. But in one week, two of the most important AI researchers alive betrayed them. And the actual reason is what's terrifying here: For nine months, the consensus take has been that Google's compute advantage would eventually win because talent is replaceable and compute is not. This week proved the opposite. Anthropic just secured a Nobel Prize winner whose work on AlphaFold opened the entire field of AI for biology. That is the same field every pharma company on Earth is desperately trying to enter. Anthropic now literally owns the most credentialed scientist in it. Meanwhile OpenAI just secured the actual inventor of the transformer. The man whose paper underpins every product Google has shipped in the last three years, including Gemini itself. Google has the compute but Google does not have the people who know what to do with it anymore. And the crazy part is that five days ago, Anthropic was effectively under siege. The administration was threatening PRISON, and the Mythos export crisis had triggered a federal block. Their largest investor was reportedly working against them while the company was hours from an existential national security designation that would have frozen them out of federal contracts. But four days later, Trump cleared them in public, they secured the most decorated AI researcher of the decade, and the entire frontier AI duopoly locked in with Anthropic in pole position. The fastest reversal of fortune in modern corporate history. "It's a two-horse race at the frontier. Google is effectively out." Wall Street wakes up to this in six months and starts downgrading Alphabet. But the smart money already knows. Anthropic is being whispered at a $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI is approaching $500 billion in the private market. Gemini 3.5 Pro has been delayed with no public timeline. The AI race literally ended this week. What do you think?
1:20

Google just got executed by a Nobel Prize winner, the inventor of modern AI, and Donald Trump. They literally LOST the AI race in the most brutal way possible. Here is what happened: 5 days ago, Trump told Axios that Anthropic was a national security threat and warned that "people get put in prison immediately" for what the company had been doing with its frontier model exports. 4 days ago, Trump met Dario Amodei at the G7 AI Summit and walked out telling reporters Dario was a "nice guy, smart guy" who had "responded very responsibly." 3 days ago, Noam Shazeer, the co-author of "Attention Is All You Need" (the paper that invented the transformer architecture powering EVERY modern AI model on Earth), walked out of Google to join OpenAI. Yesterday, John Jumper, the 2024 Nobel Prize winner who co-created AlphaFold and ran Google DeepMind's protein structure team for nearly a decade, announced he was leaving to join Anthropic. And this is NOT a coincidence or a normal talent shuffle... Demis Hassabis, who shared the Nobel Prize with Jumper just 18 months ago, had to publicly THANK his own co-laureate for defecting to a rival lab. The man who shared the highest scientific honor in the world with you is now going to work for the people trying to put you out of business. This is what the end of a war looks like. The AI race was never going to be decided by chips, capital, or compute. There are only about 50 people on Earth who can actually build a frontier model from scratch. Google invented the field and trained most of them. They had the largest concentration of them anywhere on the planet. But in one week, two of the most important AI researchers alive betrayed them. And the actual reason is what's terrifying here: For nine months, the consensus take has been that Google's compute advantage would eventually win because talent is replaceable and compute is not. This week proved the opposite. Anthropic just secured a Nobel Prize winner whose work on AlphaFold opened the entire field of AI for biology. That is the same field every pharma company on Earth is desperately trying to enter. Anthropic now literally owns the most credentialed scientist in it. Meanwhile OpenAI just secured the actual inventor of the transformer. The man whose paper underpins every product Google has shipped in the last three years, including Gemini itself. Google has the compute but Google does not have the people who know what to do with it anymore. And the crazy part is that five days ago, Anthropic was effectively under siege. The administration was threatening PRISON, and the Mythos export crisis had triggered a federal block. Their largest investor was reportedly working against them while the company was hours from an existential national security designation that would have frozen them out of federal contracts. But four days later, Trump cleared them in public, they secured the most decorated AI researcher of the decade, and the entire frontier AI duopoly locked in with Anthropic in pole position. The fastest reversal of fortune in modern corporate history. "It's a two-horse race at the frontier. Google is effectively out." Wall Street wakes up to this in six months and starts downgrading Alphabet. But the smart money already knows. Anthropic is being whispered at a $2 trillion valuation. OpenAI is approaching $500 billion in the private market. Gemini 3.5 Pro has been delayed with no public timeline. The AI race literally ended this week. What do you think?

Ricardo

90,843 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

🚨 do you understand what happened to the AI money loop.. Google just signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for AI compute. Yes, Google - the company that owns one of the biggest GPU stockpiles on Earth - is now renting servers from a rocket company. - Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for the same kind of compute - Google's old stake in SpaceX could be worth over $100 billion after the IPO - So Anthropic pays SpaceX, SpaceX answers to Google, Google funds Anthropic - The entire AI industry is quietly paying itself in a circle The money never leaves the room. It just changes whose name is on the check.
1:34

🚨 do you understand what happened to the AI money loop.. Google just signed a deal to pay SpaceX $920 million a month for AI compute. Yes, Google - the company that owns one of the biggest GPU stockpiles on Earth - is now renting servers from a rocket company. - Anthropic pays SpaceX $1.25 billion a month for the same kind of compute - Google's old stake in SpaceX could be worth over $100 billion after the IPO - So Anthropic pays SpaceX, SpaceX answers to Google, Google funds Anthropic - The entire AI industry is quietly paying itself in a circle The money never leaves the room. It just changes whose name is on the check.

BuBBliK

18,631 просмотров • 1 месяц назад