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Elon Musk, 13 years ago: A fully and rapidly reusable rocket is barely possible. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail, but we're going to try to do it. “The pivotal breakthrough that's necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life...

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ELON CLIPS

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43,664,594 次观看 • 1 年前 •via X (Twitter)

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10 条评论

Gillian Roth 的头像
Gillian Roth1 年前

In 50 years, my children's children will be watching movies about this time in history--if we have movies. I think they will react as my children do now. My great grandson--turning and looking at me asking, "Was it really that cool...?" And me replying, "Yes. It was amazing. You had to be there. It took my breath away... and it all started with a hat."

ELON CLIPS 的头像
ELON CLIPS1 年前

Thinking about this often, too. They will maybe think it was something obvious.. which we still know today it isn’t.

Ashar Husain Kha’n-अशहर हुसैन खां 的头像
Ashar Husain Kha’n-अशहर हुसैन खां1 年前

Completely determined and resilient with his resolve 👍

ELON CLIPS 的头像
ELON CLIPS1 年前

yes

B on X 的头像
B on X1 年前

Is there anything more compelling than the rare combination of brilliance tempered by humility? Intelligence alone often leads to arrogance or self-importance, but when it is balanced by the quiet strength of humility, it becomes something far greater. It elevates the individual and also those around them, fostering a respect that outshines mere intellect.

SunStar 的头像
SunStar1 年前

13 years ago is not too long ago , and look how far Elon has come - he now has a reusable rocket, that can be sent back to orbit fast -within an hour !!-to add anxiety to the technicians 🤣- and is also reliable - the Falcon 9 boosters have landed 352 times! Elon loves physics!❤️

Klay Thompson 的头像
Klay Thompson1 年前

Many wanted them to fail, so good to see the doubters continuously proven wrong.

J J 的头像
J J1 年前

What I would love to say to that Elon of 13 years ago,,, is a Huge THANK YOU FOR HELPING TO SAVE AMERICA AND FREEDOMS AROUND THE WORLD 🌎!!!

StratCooper 的头像
StratCooper1 年前

And the corrupt State of California is holding this genius back from helping humanity move forward. All because of a few posts on x that hurt their feelings.

Gabriel Gray 的头像
Gabriel Gray1 年前

It's amazing to see how SpaceX is pushing the boundaries of what's possible in space exploration

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Here's Elon Musk in 2011 announcing he believes full and rapidly reusable rockets are achievable. “The pivotal breakthrough that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. It's just a very tough engineering problem. I wasn't sure it could be solved for a while. But then, relatively recently, in the last twelve months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that, on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, does work. We need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree, because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, 2011
1:04

Here's Elon Musk in 2011 announcing he believes full and rapidly reusable rockets are achievable. “The pivotal breakthrough that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. It's just a very tough engineering problem. I wasn't sure it could be solved for a while. But then, relatively recently, in the last twelve months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that, on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, does work. We need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree, because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, 2011

ELON CLIPS

19,955,019 次观看 • 1 年前

Here's Elon Musk back in 2010 announcing that SpaceX is going to try to build a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. “The pivotal breakthrough that's necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. Even for an expendable launch vehicle where you don't attempt any recovery, you get maybe 2% to 3% of your liftoff weight to orbit. Now you say, okay, let's make it reusable. Which means you've got to strengthen the stages, you've got to add a lot of weight, a lot of thermal protection, you've got to do a lot of things that add weight to that vehicle and still have a useful payload to orbit. Now, you're saying, of that meager 2% to 3% and maybe if you're really good, get it to 4%, you've got to add all that's necessary to bring the rocket stages back to the launchpad and be able to refly them and still have useful payloads to orbit. So, a very difficult thing. This has been attempted many times in the past and generally what's happened is when people have concluded that success was not one of the possible outcomes then the project's been abandoned. It's just a very tough engineering problem. It wasn't something that I thought I wasn't sure it could be solved, for a while, but then relatively recently, probably in the last 12 months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. And I think SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success here, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, it does work. And now we need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, September 29, 2010
2:51

Here's Elon Musk back in 2010 announcing that SpaceX is going to try to build a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. “The pivotal breakthrough that's necessary, that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. Even for an expendable launch vehicle where you don't attempt any recovery, you get maybe 2% to 3% of your liftoff weight to orbit. Now you say, okay, let's make it reusable. Which means you've got to strengthen the stages, you've got to add a lot of weight, a lot of thermal protection, you've got to do a lot of things that add weight to that vehicle and still have a useful payload to orbit. Now, you're saying, of that meager 2% to 3% and maybe if you're really good, get it to 4%, you've got to add all that's necessary to bring the rocket stages back to the launchpad and be able to refly them and still have useful payloads to orbit. So, a very difficult thing. This has been attempted many times in the past and generally what's happened is when people have concluded that success was not one of the possible outcomes then the project's been abandoned. It's just a very tough engineering problem. It wasn't something that I thought I wasn't sure it could be solved, for a while, but then relatively recently, probably in the last 12 months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. And I think SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success here, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, it does work. And now we need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, September 29, 2010

ELON CLIPS

14,920 次观看 • 1 年前

"Every team wants to win a championship, but not every team wants to do the things required for a championship. And here's the thing: it's easy to be an average team. It doesn't require a lot. It's less adversity to be average in the world. The consequences of being average aren't easy. We end up wearing them. There's strain and struggle that comes with that too. The standard is just lower to be an average team. To be a championship team, to be champion, to be a championship team member here . . . I'm not gonna lie to you . . . I'm going to tell you the truth. It is harder. It is. The question is: Is it worth it? Some people say, "Oh it's not harder work." Yes it is. It's harder work. You can pursue comfort or you can pursue excellence. If we pursue comfort, we gotta give up some excellence. But if we pursue excellence, then we're just going to face more adversity. Everyone who's ever accomplished something excellence has had to overcome it. We are here today for a reason. Two reasons actually. Reason #1 is let's make sure that we identify and realize the opportunities that are in front of us. Reason #2 is let's make sure that we are preparing for the adversity that those opportunities require. And just understand: every single time you lever up your opportunities and you identify, "Oh there's something more I can do, more I can achieve. I can get better. I can earn more. I can do this." It's going to be matched with the adversity that comes with it. I want to make sure we are prepared for both of those, so that we're not chasing big opportunities and then getting mad when things start getting harder along the way. Is that fair? Does that make sense?"
1:44

"Every team wants to win a championship, but not every team wants to do the things required for a championship. And here's the thing: it's easy to be an average team. It doesn't require a lot. It's less adversity to be average in the world. The consequences of being average aren't easy. We end up wearing them. There's strain and struggle that comes with that too. The standard is just lower to be an average team. To be a championship team, to be champion, to be a championship team member here . . . I'm not gonna lie to you . . . I'm going to tell you the truth. It is harder. It is. The question is: Is it worth it? Some people say, "Oh it's not harder work." Yes it is. It's harder work. You can pursue comfort or you can pursue excellence. If we pursue comfort, we gotta give up some excellence. But if we pursue excellence, then we're just going to face more adversity. Everyone who's ever accomplished something excellence has had to overcome it. We are here today for a reason. Two reasons actually. Reason #1 is let's make sure that we identify and realize the opportunities that are in front of us. Reason #2 is let's make sure that we are preparing for the adversity that those opportunities require. And just understand: every single time you lever up your opportunities and you identify, "Oh there's something more I can do, more I can achieve. I can get better. I can earn more. I can do this." It's going to be matched with the adversity that comes with it. I want to make sure we are prepared for both of those, so that we're not chasing big opportunities and then getting mad when things start getting harder along the way. Is that fair? Does that make sense?"

Brian Kight

125,742 次观看 • 2 年前

Trump: "It's going to be all or none. And that's the way it is. You saw what we did with Venezuela. It'll be something very similar to that, but at a higher level." "It's called 'all in and all out.' There'll be a time when we'll have them all come in and all come out, but it won't be a percentage. It won't be a friend of yours, like a country that's your ally or a country that's your friend is all or nothing." "We're just bringing the ships up. We got a lot of ships that we're bringing them up. We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we're putting on a complete blockade." "We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don't like or whatever it is."
1:10

Trump: "It's going to be all or none. And that's the way it is. You saw what we did with Venezuela. It'll be something very similar to that, but at a higher level." "It's called 'all in and all out.' There'll be a time when we'll have them all come in and all come out, but it won't be a percentage. It won't be a friend of yours, like a country that's your ally or a country that's your friend is all or nothing." "We're just bringing the ships up. We got a lot of ships that we're bringing them up. We think that numerous countries are going to be helping us with this also, but we're putting on a complete blockade." "We're not going to let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don't like or whatever it is."

Open Source Intel

62,448 次观看 • 4 个月前

Elon Musk: Right now, SpaceX is the only hope to become multiplanetary. “There are many good causes in the world, but we got to be careful we do not try to take on too many. There are many noble missions, but we have to pick our battles and make sure we get this done. Because nobody else is doing it. If SpaceX doesn't do it, I'm not sure how it will happen. I think, at least right now, SpaceX is the only hope [to become multiplanetary]. We've got to get this done. And it's far from done. We got a long way to go.” Code Conference, September 28, 2021
0:34

Elon Musk: Right now, SpaceX is the only hope to become multiplanetary. “There are many good causes in the world, but we got to be careful we do not try to take on too many. There are many noble missions, but we have to pick our battles and make sure we get this done. Because nobody else is doing it. If SpaceX doesn't do it, I'm not sure how it will happen. I think, at least right now, SpaceX is the only hope [to become multiplanetary]. We've got to get this done. And it's far from done. We got a long way to go.” Code Conference, September 28, 2021

ELON CLIPS

16,547 次观看 • 1 年前

Elon Musk: We want to make it possible for anyone interested to move to Mars and help build a new civilization. “We want to ultimately make it so that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help build a new civilization can do so. Anyone out there. How cool would that be? And even if you don't want to do it, maybe you have a son or daughter who wants to do that or a friend who wants to do it. And I think it would be the best adventure that one could possibly do is to go and help build a new civilization on a new planet.” From: SpaceX Update, May 29, 2025
0:30

Elon Musk: We want to make it possible for anyone interested to move to Mars and help build a new civilization. “We want to ultimately make it so that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help build a new civilization can do so. Anyone out there. How cool would that be? And even if you don't want to do it, maybe you have a son or daughter who wants to do that or a friend who wants to do it. And I think it would be the best adventure that one could possibly do is to go and help build a new civilization on a new planet.” From: SpaceX Update, May 29, 2025

ELON CLIPS

72,179 次观看 • 1 年前

Elon Musk: We have to keep our simulation interesting, otherwise we might get terminated. “If the simulation theory is true, then it is actually very likely that the most interesting outcome is the most likely. Because only the simulations that are interesting will continue. The simulators will stop any simulations that are boring because they're not interesting. In this reality that we live in, we run simulations all the time. When we try to figure out if the rocket's going to make it, we run thousands, sometimes millions of simulations just to figure out which path is the good path for the rocket and where can it go wrong? Where can it fail? But when we do these millions of simulations of what can happen with the rocket, we ignore the ones where everything goes right, because we have to address the situations where it goes wrong. And for AI simulations as well, like all these things, we keep the simulations going that are the most interesting to us. So, if the simulation theory is accurate, if it is true, who knows, then the simulators will only continue to run the simulations that are most interesting. Therefore, from a Darwinian perspective, the only surviving simulations will be the most interesting ones. And in order to avoid getting turned off, the only rule is that you must keep it interesting because the boring simulations will be terminated.” The Joe Rogan Experience, October 31, 2025
1:41

Elon Musk: We have to keep our simulation interesting, otherwise we might get terminated. “If the simulation theory is true, then it is actually very likely that the most interesting outcome is the most likely. Because only the simulations that are interesting will continue. The simulators will stop any simulations that are boring because they're not interesting. In this reality that we live in, we run simulations all the time. When we try to figure out if the rocket's going to make it, we run thousands, sometimes millions of simulations just to figure out which path is the good path for the rocket and where can it go wrong? Where can it fail? But when we do these millions of simulations of what can happen with the rocket, we ignore the ones where everything goes right, because we have to address the situations where it goes wrong. And for AI simulations as well, like all these things, we keep the simulations going that are the most interesting to us. So, if the simulation theory is accurate, if it is true, who knows, then the simulators will only continue to run the simulations that are most interesting. Therefore, from a Darwinian perspective, the only surviving simulations will be the most interesting ones. And in order to avoid getting turned off, the only rule is that you must keep it interesting because the boring simulations will be terminated.” The Joe Rogan Experience, October 31, 2025

ELON CLIPS

16,989 次观看 • 9 个月前

ELON: WE CAN'T WASTE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE LIFE MULTIPLANETARY "This is the first time in the history of Earth that it has been possible for life to extend beyond Earth. That window is open; it may be open for a long time, or may be open for a short time; it may be open now and then never open again. So I think the smart move here is to make life multiplanetary, while it is possible to do so. If we do not become multiplanetary and ultimately go beyond our solar system, annihilation of all life on Earth is a certainty." Source: Elon Musk, Lex Fridman
0:55

ELON: WE CAN'T WASTE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE LIFE MULTIPLANETARY "This is the first time in the history of Earth that it has been possible for life to extend beyond Earth. That window is open; it may be open for a long time, or may be open for a short time; it may be open now and then never open again. So I think the smart move here is to make life multiplanetary, while it is possible to do so. If we do not become multiplanetary and ultimately go beyond our solar system, annihilation of all life on Earth is a certainty." Source: Elon Musk, Lex Fridman

Mario Nawfal

38,845 次观看 • 11 个月前

Elon Musk: To go and help build a new civilization on a new planet is the best possible adventure. “It's important to emphasize even with the rocket that we'll be launching just at the end of this year, it will be capable of making life multiplanetary and thereafter it's just about continuing to hone the efficiency and capability of the rocket and reduce the cost per ton and reduce the cost per person to Mars. And like I said, ultimately make it so that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help build a new civilization can do so. Anyone out there. How cool would that be? And even if you don't want to do it, maybe you have a son or daughter who wants to do that or a friend who wants to do it. I think it would be the best adventure that one could possibly do is to go and help build a new civilization on a new planet.” SpaceX Update: The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary, May 29, 2025
0:48

Elon Musk: To go and help build a new civilization on a new planet is the best possible adventure. “It's important to emphasize even with the rocket that we'll be launching just at the end of this year, it will be capable of making life multiplanetary and thereafter it's just about continuing to hone the efficiency and capability of the rocket and reduce the cost per ton and reduce the cost per person to Mars. And like I said, ultimately make it so that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help build a new civilization can do so. Anyone out there. How cool would that be? And even if you don't want to do it, maybe you have a son or daughter who wants to do that or a friend who wants to do it. I think it would be the best adventure that one could possibly do is to go and help build a new civilization on a new planet.” SpaceX Update: The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary, May 29, 2025

ELON CLIPS

34,538 次观看 • 1 年前

David Sacks: The Techno-Realist On E215, David Sacks explained a third category outside of techno-optimist and doomer: "Given the choice between the two categories of techno-optimist and techno-pessimist, I'm definitely in the optimist camp. And I think we should be." "But I think there's actually a third category that I would submit: techno-realist." "Which is, technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop." "AI is going to happen. We might as well be the leader." "If we don't do it, somebody else will. China's going to do it or somebody else will do it." "If we don't, we could lose in a key category that has implications for national security, for our economy, for many things." "That's just not a world we want to live in." "So, I think a lot of this debate is sort of academic because the question is just, is it going to happen or not?" "And I think the answer is yes. So then we want to control it." "There's not a tremendous amount of choice in this, I think."
0:43

David Sacks: The Techno-Realist On E215, David Sacks explained a third category outside of techno-optimist and doomer: "Given the choice between the two categories of techno-optimist and techno-pessimist, I'm definitely in the optimist camp. And I think we should be." "But I think there's actually a third category that I would submit: techno-realist." "Which is, technology is going to happen. Trying to stop it is like ordering the tides to stop." "AI is going to happen. We might as well be the leader." "If we don't do it, somebody else will. China's going to do it or somebody else will do it." "If we don't, we could lose in a key category that has implications for national security, for our economy, for many things." "That's just not a world we want to live in." "So, I think a lot of this debate is sort of academic because the question is just, is it going to happen or not?" "And I think the answer is yes. So then we want to control it." "There's not a tremendous amount of choice in this, I think."

The All-In Podcast

154,319 次观看 • 1 年前

The White House President Trump remark on "we have to get the country open and the way we're going to do it this afternoon, is to terminate the filibuster" Then he says "it's possible you're not going to do that...it would be a tragic mistake..." "IT'S TIME....IT'S TIME"
0:20

The White House President Trump remark on "we have to get the country open and the way we're going to do it this afternoon, is to terminate the filibuster" Then he says "it's possible you're not going to do that...it would be a tragic mistake..." "IT'S TIME....IT'S TIME"

Santa Surfing

11,209 次观看 • 9 个月前

ELON: SOMEONE HAS TO SOLVE ROCKET REUSABILITY — WHETHER IT’S SPACEX OR SOMEONE ELSE “The cost of the fuel and oxygen on a Falcon 9 is 0.3% of the cost of the rocket. So, it's a very tiny number. It's very similar to an airplane. How much does it cost to fuel up an airplane, and how much does it cost to buy an airplane? They're very different things. If humanity is ever to expand beyond Earth and establish a self-sustaining base on another planet, it's critical that we solve this problem. Whether it's SpaceX or someone else, someone has to solve the problem, and we can have a hundred-fold reduction in the cost of spaceflight. That's what SpaceX has been trying to do, and really that's been the goal since the beginning of the company. So far, I've not been very successful in that regard, but I think we have a handle on it. We've got a design that closes in the simulations. If we can build that thing, it should work.” Source: SXSW, March 2013
0:58

ELON: SOMEONE HAS TO SOLVE ROCKET REUSABILITY — WHETHER IT’S SPACEX OR SOMEONE ELSE “The cost of the fuel and oxygen on a Falcon 9 is 0.3% of the cost of the rocket. So, it's a very tiny number. It's very similar to an airplane. How much does it cost to fuel up an airplane, and how much does it cost to buy an airplane? They're very different things. If humanity is ever to expand beyond Earth and establish a self-sustaining base on another planet, it's critical that we solve this problem. Whether it's SpaceX or someone else, someone has to solve the problem, and we can have a hundred-fold reduction in the cost of spaceflight. That's what SpaceX has been trying to do, and really that's been the goal since the beginning of the company. So far, I've not been very successful in that regard, but I think we have a handle on it. We've got a design that closes in the simulations. If we can build that thing, it should work.” Source: SXSW, March 2013

Mario Nawfal

2,652,416 次观看 • 1 年前

When it comes to stopping the run, the #Packers defense knows how much of a focal point that part of the game will be. "We know teams are going to try and run on is but I'm going to say it right now, we're not going to let it happen."
0:30

When it comes to stopping the run, the #Packers defense knows how much of a focal point that part of the game will be. "We know teams are going to try and run on is but I'm going to say it right now, we're not going to let it happen."

Cameron Ezeir

54,489 次观看 • 7 个月前

Elon Musk: For Starship to work, we still need to solve a problem that has never been solved by anyone. “What's the single biggest remaining problem for Starship? It's having the heat shield be reusable. No one has ever made a reusable orbital heat shield. The heat shield's got to make it through the ascent phase without shocking a bunch of tiles. And then it's going to come back in and also not lose a bunch of tiles or overheat the main airframe. Isn't that hard because it's kind of fundamentally a consumable. It just needs to last a very long time. We have brought the ship back and had it do a soft landing in the ocean. I've done that a few times. But it lost a lot of tiles. It was not reusable without a lot of work. So even though it did come to a soft landing, it would not have been reusable without a lot of work. So it's not really reusable in that sense. That's the biggest problem that remains. So if you want to be able to land it, refill propellant, and fly again, you can't do this laborious inspection of 40,000 tiles type of thing.” Interview with John Collison and Dwarkesh Patel, February 5, 2026
1:05

Elon Musk: For Starship to work, we still need to solve a problem that has never been solved by anyone. “What's the single biggest remaining problem for Starship? It's having the heat shield be reusable. No one has ever made a reusable orbital heat shield. The heat shield's got to make it through the ascent phase without shocking a bunch of tiles. And then it's going to come back in and also not lose a bunch of tiles or overheat the main airframe. Isn't that hard because it's kind of fundamentally a consumable. It just needs to last a very long time. We have brought the ship back and had it do a soft landing in the ocean. I've done that a few times. But it lost a lot of tiles. It was not reusable without a lot of work. So even though it did come to a soft landing, it would not have been reusable without a lot of work. So it's not really reusable in that sense. That's the biggest problem that remains. So if you want to be able to land it, refill propellant, and fly again, you can't do this laborious inspection of 40,000 tiles type of thing.” Interview with John Collison and Dwarkesh Patel, February 5, 2026

ELON CLIPS

41,141 次观看 • 5 个月前

🗣️ Mikel Arteta on Arsenal's transfer business and being "ruthless": "There is more that we want to do. Every time we have an opportunity to improve the squad and bring more quality and depth to the squad, we need to do that. We are actively trying to do so. "The thing with the market is that it doesn’t just depend on you, and we are very clear on that. But the approach, the will and the desire of the club, that’s unquestionable, and we’re going to try to do that." "But we cannot promise that we’re going to do it because, again, it doesn’t only depend on us."
0:51

🗣️ Mikel Arteta on Arsenal's transfer business and being "ruthless": "There is more that we want to do. Every time we have an opportunity to improve the squad and bring more quality and depth to the squad, we need to do that. We are actively trying to do so. "The thing with the market is that it doesn’t just depend on you, and we are very clear on that. But the approach, the will and the desire of the club, that’s unquestionable, and we’re going to try to do that." "But we cannot promise that we’re going to do it because, again, it doesn’t only depend on us."

Connor Humm

134,877 次观看 • 4 天前