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Elon Musk: I started reading about rockets to understand why they're so freaking expensive. “I started reading quite a bit about rockets to try to understand why they're so freaking expensive. Where does the $60 million go for the Delta II? Now Delta II, I think, is $100 million... or something, some crazy number. And Delta II is a relatively small rocket. If you go to one of the bigger rockets, it's anywhere from $200 to $400 million. Anyway, so I came to the conclusion that there wasn't really a good reason for rockets to be so expensive, and that they could be a lot less. Even in an expendable format, they could be less. And that if one could make them reusable, like airplanes, then the cost of rocketry would drop dramatically, the cost of space travel would drop dramatically. Because the cost of the fuel was maybe anywhere from 0.2% to 0.5% of the cost of the rocket. It's like a plane. How much is the cost of the fuel in the plane versus the plane itself? It's at least a two-order-of-magnitude difference. But nobody had really been able to make a reusable rocket work. So I thought, if we can do that, then that would really be the key breakthrough for space travel.” Interview at the Computer History Museum, 2013show more

ELON CLIPS

189,660 subscribers

1,208,721 просмотров • 1 год назад •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

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Комментарии: 10

Фото профиля Felicia Lee

Felicia Lee1 год назад

He reads complicated materials in depth, he masters the details, and he thinks deeply about how to use the information. I wish we could teach every child in the US to do that.

Фото профиля ELON CLIPS

ELON CLIPS1 год назад

Yes

Фото профиля The Dutch Doge Guy 🐕

The Dutch Doge Guy 🐕1 год назад

@elon_alerts Elon makes space exploration affordable

Фото профиля ELON CLIPS

ELON CLIPS1 год назад

@elon_alerts Exactly

Фото профиля Kevin Widner

Kevin Widner1 год назад

Amazing how far he has taken it in the last decade isn’t it?

Фото профиля ELON CLIPS

ELON CLIPS1 год назад

Yes!

Фото профиля Azgrakth⚡

Azgrakth⚡1 год назад

This man is something else, I wanna kiss his brain.

Фото профиля ELON CLIPS

ELON CLIPS1 год назад

😂🧠

Фото профиля OneFlewOver_USA

OneFlewOver_USA1 год назад

Alternate strategy to ID opportunities: Look at anything government does, assume you can cut costs 90%

Фото профиля Zenvr Yellow

Zenvr Yellow1 год назад

Elon is one of a kind. To live alongside a genius like him in our lifetime is truly rare. Appreciate it!

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How a single, obvious question led Elon Musk to create SpaceX and changed space travel forever: “I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t really a good reason for rockets to be so expensive, and that they could be a lot less Even in an expendable format they could be less" From day one, Elon's mission has been crystal clear: make rockets fully reusable, just like commercial airplanes "The cost of space travel would drop dramatically, because the cost of the fuel was maybe anywhere from 0.2 to 0.5 percent of the cost of the rocket But nobody had really been able to make a reusable rocket work. So I thought, ‘Okay, if we can do that, then that would really be the key breakthrough for space travel’”

How a single, obvious question led Elon Musk to create SpaceX and changed space travel forever: “I came to the conclusion that there wasn’t really a good reason for rockets to be so expensive, and that they could be a lot less Even in an expendable format they could be less" From day one, Elon's mission has been crystal clear: make rockets fully reusable, just like commercial airplanes "The cost of space travel would drop dramatically, because the cost of the fuel was maybe anywhere from 0.2 to 0.5 percent of the cost of the rocket But nobody had really been able to make a reusable rocket work. So I thought, ‘Okay, if we can do that, then that would really be the key breakthrough for space travel’”

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Elon Musk on Starship today: "The fundamental breakthrough of Starship is that it will be the first orbital rocket that is fully reusable, so this might sound like an obvious thing, but because in every other mode of transport, whether that's aircraft, cars, bicycles, horses, ships, these are all we take it for granted that they are reusable, an aircraft journey would be very expensive if you had to throw the plane away every time, and that's how rockets have been in the past, but it's very difficult from a technology standpoint to achieve full reusability for a rocket. We've got part of the way there with Falcon 9, but we'll get all the way there with Starship, and once you achieve full reusability, then it's simply a cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant, because now you can reuse all aspects of the vehicle, and the propellant we used for Starship is liquid oxygen and liquid methane, which is the cheapest propellant you could possibly get. The cost of propellant for Starship will be less than the cost of jet aviation fuel, which means that you should be able to actually send cargo to space for less than the cost of cargo on an airplane going on a transoceanic trip."

Elon Musk on Starship today: "The fundamental breakthrough of Starship is that it will be the first orbital rocket that is fully reusable, so this might sound like an obvious thing, but because in every other mode of transport, whether that's aircraft, cars, bicycles, horses, ships, these are all we take it for granted that they are reusable, an aircraft journey would be very expensive if you had to throw the plane away every time, and that's how rockets have been in the past, but it's very difficult from a technology standpoint to achieve full reusability for a rocket. We've got part of the way there with Falcon 9, but we'll get all the way there with Starship, and once you achieve full reusability, then it's simply a cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant, because now you can reuse all aspects of the vehicle, and the propellant we used for Starship is liquid oxygen and liquid methane, which is the cheapest propellant you could possibly get. The cost of propellant for Starship will be less than the cost of jet aviation fuel, which means that you should be able to actually send cargo to space for less than the cost of cargo on an airplane going on a transoceanic trip."

DogeDesigner

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Elon Musk: Starship is next-level. It's the first rocket that can take us to Mars. “Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that's ever been made by, I don't know, an order of magnitude or something like that. It's a lot. It's really next-level. The fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing cost per ton to orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars. This may seem like a mercantile objective, but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized. There is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city, and then above that we cannot afford to do it. Right now, you couldn't fly to Mars for a trillion dollars. No amount of money could get you a ticket to Mars. So, we need to get that to something that is actually possible at all.” From: Interview with Lex Fridman, December 28, 2021

Elon Musk: Starship is next-level. It's the first rocket that can take us to Mars. “Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that's ever been made by, I don't know, an order of magnitude or something like that. It's a lot. It's really next-level. The fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing cost per ton to orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars. This may seem like a mercantile objective, but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized. There is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city, and then above that we cannot afford to do it. Right now, you couldn't fly to Mars for a trillion dollars. No amount of money could get you a ticket to Mars. So, we need to get that to something that is actually possible at all.” From: Interview with Lex Fridman, December 28, 2021

ELON CLIPS

1,190,697 просмотров • 1 год назад

Elon Musk breaks down the first-principles math that told him rockets were massively overpriced "How much should a rocket cost? The typical approach people take is they look historically at what rockets cost and assume any new rocket must be similar to the prior cost" "A first-principles approach: you look at the materials the rocket is made of. Aluminum, copper, carbon fiber, steel. What are the constituent elements, how much do they weigh, and what's the material price per kilogram? That sets the actual floor on what a rocket can cost" "Then you realize the raw materials of a rocket are only maybe 1 or 2% of the historical cost of a rocket. So the manufacturing must necessarily be very inefficient"

Elon Musk breaks down the first-principles math that told him rockets were massively overpriced "How much should a rocket cost? The typical approach people take is they look historically at what rockets cost and assume any new rocket must be similar to the prior cost" "A first-principles approach: you look at the materials the rocket is made of. Aluminum, copper, carbon fiber, steel. What are the constituent elements, how much do they weigh, and what's the material price per kilogram? That sets the actual floor on what a rocket can cost" "Then you realize the raw materials of a rocket are only maybe 1 or 2% of the historical cost of a rocket. So the manufacturing must necessarily be very inefficient"

Jaynit

28,509 просмотров • 10 дней назад

ELON: SOMEONE HAS TO SOLVE ROCKET REUSABILITY — WHETHER IT’S SPACEX OR SOMEONE ELSE “The cost of the fuel and oxygen on a Falcon 9 is 0.3% of the cost of the rocket. So, it's a very tiny number. It's very similar to an airplane. How much does it cost to fuel up an airplane, and how much does it cost to buy an airplane? They're very different things. If humanity is ever to expand beyond Earth and establish a self-sustaining base on another planet, it's critical that we solve this problem. Whether it's SpaceX or someone else, someone has to solve the problem, and we can have a hundred-fold reduction in the cost of spaceflight. That's what SpaceX has been trying to do, and really that's been the goal since the beginning of the company. So far, I've not been very successful in that regard, but I think we have a handle on it. We've got a design that closes in the simulations. If we can build that thing, it should work.” Source: SXSW, March 2013

ELON: SOMEONE HAS TO SOLVE ROCKET REUSABILITY — WHETHER IT’S SPACEX OR SOMEONE ELSE “The cost of the fuel and oxygen on a Falcon 9 is 0.3% of the cost of the rocket. So, it's a very tiny number. It's very similar to an airplane. How much does it cost to fuel up an airplane, and how much does it cost to buy an airplane? They're very different things. If humanity is ever to expand beyond Earth and establish a self-sustaining base on another planet, it's critical that we solve this problem. Whether it's SpaceX or someone else, someone has to solve the problem, and we can have a hundred-fold reduction in the cost of spaceflight. That's what SpaceX has been trying to do, and really that's been the goal since the beginning of the company. So far, I've not been very successful in that regard, but I think we have a handle on it. We've got a design that closes in the simulations. If we can build that thing, it should work.” Source: SXSW, March 2013

Mario Nawfal

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Elon Musk: Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1 but has 400 times the payload. “One of the most profound things is that Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1. That's the difference between a fully reusable rocket or an expendable rocket. The fully reusable rocket with low-cost propellant and autogenous pressurization actually costs less than a tiny expendable rocket. Falcon 1 is about half a ton to orbit. The Starship 3 will be 400 times more payload for less than the cost of a Falcon 1. Ultimately, I think we might be able to get the cost per flight to Earth orbit down to around $2 or $3 million. These are unthinkable numbers. Nobody ever thought this was possible but we're not breaking any physics to achieve this.” SpaceX Update, April 4, 2024

Elon Musk: Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1 but has 400 times the payload. “One of the most profound things is that Starship 3 will cost less per flight than Falcon 1. That's the difference between a fully reusable rocket or an expendable rocket. The fully reusable rocket with low-cost propellant and autogenous pressurization actually costs less than a tiny expendable rocket. Falcon 1 is about half a ton to orbit. The Starship 3 will be 400 times more payload for less than the cost of a Falcon 1. Ultimately, I think we might be able to get the cost per flight to Earth orbit down to around $2 or $3 million. These are unthinkable numbers. Nobody ever thought this was possible but we're not breaking any physics to achieve this.” SpaceX Update, April 4, 2024

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DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis: Elon is doing amazing things with SpaceX “I think there will be a solution to the energy problem. So free, pretty much free, renewable, clean energy one way or another, fusion or better solar. And then that will unlock us to really travel the stars. Because the main cost, Elon does amazing work with SpaceX and those things, but the main cost is still the rocket fuel, right? The energy cost. So if that's sort of zero somehow, because we can just make infinite rocket fuel out of seawater once we’ve cracked fusion.” Source: Muskonomy

DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis: Elon is doing amazing things with SpaceX “I think there will be a solution to the energy problem. So free, pretty much free, renewable, clean energy one way or another, fusion or better solar. And then that will unlock us to really travel the stars. Because the main cost, Elon does amazing work with SpaceX and those things, but the main cost is still the rocket fuel, right? The energy cost. So if that's sort of zero somehow, because we can just make infinite rocket fuel out of seawater once we’ve cracked fusion.” Source: Muskonomy

Mario Nawfal

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Elon Musk explains how to get startup ideas When asked how he comes up with startup ideas, Elon responds: “I tend to think of things from a sort of physics standpoint… what’s the best way to accomplish something? And then pursue that. That’s also a good way to determine if something’s far from its optimum.” He gives rockets as an example: “You could reason by analogy and say the rocket is going to cost a certain amount because that’s what prior rockets have cost. Or you can say, well, what is a rocket made of? What are the material constituents? What do they weigh? What’s the cost per unit mass? And that sets the limit asymptotically for what a rocket can be. So if you can figure out some creative way to rearrange those elements into a rocket shape, then you can achieve a much better outcome.” He also thinks combining ideas from different industries is really helpful for innovation: “What have people discovered in one industry and can that be applied to other industries? That’s I think also a great source of ideas. But usually you just struggle on a solution and try a bunch of things. Most of them don’t work and occasionally one does.” Source: VANITY FAIR (Oct 2014)

Elon Musk explains how to get startup ideas When asked how he comes up with startup ideas, Elon responds: “I tend to think of things from a sort of physics standpoint… what’s the best way to accomplish something? And then pursue that. That’s also a good way to determine if something’s far from its optimum.” He gives rockets as an example: “You could reason by analogy and say the rocket is going to cost a certain amount because that’s what prior rockets have cost. Or you can say, well, what is a rocket made of? What are the material constituents? What do they weigh? What’s the cost per unit mass? And that sets the limit asymptotically for what a rocket can be. So if you can figure out some creative way to rearrange those elements into a rocket shape, then you can achieve a much better outcome.” He also thinks combining ideas from different industries is really helpful for innovation: “What have people discovered in one industry and can that be applied to other industries? That’s I think also a great source of ideas. But usually you just struggle on a solution and try a bunch of things. Most of them don’t work and occasionally one does.” Source: VANITY FAIR (Oct 2014)

Startup Archive

33,984 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

ELON: REUSABILITY TO REDUCE SPACEFLIGHT COSTS 100-FOLD “The goal is to radically improve the cost of transport to space. If aircraft were not reusable, if aircraft were single use, then you would have to buy a new aircraft with every flight and air travel would be prohibitively expensive. If you can do that, then it's potentially a hundredfold reduction in cost of spaceflight.” Source: Danish TV DR, February 2018

ELON: REUSABILITY TO REDUCE SPACEFLIGHT COSTS 100-FOLD “The goal is to radically improve the cost of transport to space. If aircraft were not reusable, if aircraft were single use, then you would have to buy a new aircraft with every flight and air travel would be prohibitively expensive. If you can do that, then it's potentially a hundredfold reduction in cost of spaceflight.” Source: Danish TV DR, February 2018

Mario Nawfal

81,615 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Elon Musk: To go and help build a new civilization on a new planet is the best possible adventure. “It's important to emphasize even with the rocket that we'll be launching just at the end of this year, it will be capable of making life multiplanetary and thereafter it's just about continuing to hone the efficiency and capability of the rocket and reduce the cost per ton and reduce the cost per person to Mars. And like I said, ultimately make it so that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help build a new civilization can do so. Anyone out there. How cool would that be? And even if you don't want to do it, maybe you have a son or daughter who wants to do that or a friend who wants to do it. I think it would be the best adventure that one could possibly do is to go and help build a new civilization on a new planet.” SpaceX Update: The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary, May 29, 2025

Elon Musk: To go and help build a new civilization on a new planet is the best possible adventure. “It's important to emphasize even with the rocket that we'll be launching just at the end of this year, it will be capable of making life multiplanetary and thereafter it's just about continuing to hone the efficiency and capability of the rocket and reduce the cost per ton and reduce the cost per person to Mars. And like I said, ultimately make it so that anyone who wants to move to Mars and help build a new civilization can do so. Anyone out there. How cool would that be? And even if you don't want to do it, maybe you have a son or daughter who wants to do that or a friend who wants to do it. I think it would be the best adventure that one could possibly do is to go and help build a new civilization on a new planet.” SpaceX Update: The Road to Making Life Multiplanetary, May 29, 2025

ELON CLIPS

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🚀 Starship will be the 1st fully reusable orbital rocket in history. Liquid oxygen, liquid methane, and a cost-per-launch that could drop below trans-oceanic air freight. Elon put it simply: "The cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant." If that holds, the economics of space will get rewritten entirely. Source: SpaceX, Elon Musk

🚀 Starship will be the 1st fully reusable orbital rocket in history. Liquid oxygen, liquid methane, and a cost-per-launch that could drop below trans-oceanic air freight. Elon put it simply: "The cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant." If that holds, the economics of space will get rewritten entirely. Source: SpaceX, Elon Musk

Mario Nawfal

51,520 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

ELON: STARSHIP IS THE WORLD’S MOST ADVANCED ROCKET BY FAR “Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that's ever been made by an order of magnitude or something like that. It's really next-level. The fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing cost per ton to orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars. This may seem like a mercantile objective, but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized. There is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city, and then above that we cannot afford to do it. Right now you couldn't fly to Mars for a trillion dollars. No amount of money could get you a ticket to Mars. So, we need to get that to something that is actually possible at all.” Source: Interview with Lex Fridman, December 2021

ELON: STARSHIP IS THE WORLD’S MOST ADVANCED ROCKET BY FAR “Starship is the most complex and advanced rocket that's ever been made by an order of magnitude or something like that. It's really next-level. The fundamental optimization of Starship is minimizing cost per ton to orbit and ultimately cost per ton to the surface of Mars. This may seem like a mercantile objective, but it is actually the thing that needs to be optimized. There is a certain cost per ton to the surface of Mars where we can afford to establish a self-sustaining city, and then above that we cannot afford to do it. Right now you couldn't fly to Mars for a trillion dollars. No amount of money could get you a ticket to Mars. So, we need to get that to something that is actually possible at all.” Source: Interview with Lex Fridman, December 2021

Mario Nawfal

42,569 просмотров • 1 год назад

“The goal is to radically improve the cost of transport to space. If aircraft were not reusable, if aircraft were single use, then you would have to buy a new aircraft with every flight and air travel would be prohibitively expensive.” — Elon Musk

“The goal is to radically improve the cost of transport to space. If aircraft were not reusable, if aircraft were single use, then you would have to buy a new aircraft with every flight and air travel would be prohibitively expensive.” — Elon Musk

Dima Zeniuk

16,094 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

ELON: THE ESSENCE OF REVOLUTIONIZING SPACE TRAVEL IS REUSABILITY “It’s mostly not disruption, it’s creation. With SpaceX and reusable rockets, there really weren’t any reusable rockets, but the essence of revolutionizing space travel is reusability. If you throw the rocket away every time, the cost of access to space is extremely high. With respect to electric cars, there weren’t any electric cars when we started making them. You couldn’t buy any, to the best of my knowledge. So with Tesla we wanted to make electric cars compelling and affordable. That was the goal. And with respect to humanoid robotics, there are no useful humanoid robots at this point.” Source: ELON CLIPS

ELON: THE ESSENCE OF REVOLUTIONIZING SPACE TRAVEL IS REUSABILITY “It’s mostly not disruption, it’s creation. With SpaceX and reusable rockets, there really weren’t any reusable rockets, but the essence of revolutionizing space travel is reusability. If you throw the rocket away every time, the cost of access to space is extremely high. With respect to electric cars, there weren’t any electric cars when we started making them. You couldn’t buy any, to the best of my knowledge. So with Tesla we wanted to make electric cars compelling and affordable. That was the goal. And with respect to humanoid robotics, there are no useful humanoid robots at this point.” Source: ELON CLIPS

Mario Nawfal

46,979 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

ELON: REUSABLE ROCKETS JUST MAKE SENSE “You can imagine if aircraft were not reusable. Like you flew somewhere and had to throw the plane away. The way conventional rockets work, it’s like having an airplane where instead of landing, you parachute out and let the plane crash somewhere, then you parachute to your destination. That would be a very strange trip, and you’d need another plane to get back. But that’s how other rockets in the world work.” Source: Joe Rogan

ELON: REUSABLE ROCKETS JUST MAKE SENSE “You can imagine if aircraft were not reusable. Like you flew somewhere and had to throw the plane away. The way conventional rockets work, it’s like having an airplane where instead of landing, you parachute out and let the plane crash somewhere, then you parachute to your destination. That would be a very strange trip, and you’d need another plane to get back. But that’s how other rockets in the world work.” Source: Joe Rogan

Mario Nawfal

127,326 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Here's Elon Musk in 2011 announcing he believes full and rapidly reusable rockets are achievable. “The pivotal breakthrough that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. It's just a very tough engineering problem. I wasn't sure it could be solved for a while. But then, relatively recently, in the last twelve months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that, on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, does work. We need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree, because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, 2011

Here's Elon Musk in 2011 announcing he believes full and rapidly reusable rockets are achievable. “The pivotal breakthrough that some company has to come up with to make life multiplanetary is a fully and rapidly reusable orbit-class rocket. This is a very difficult thing to do because we live on a planet where that is just barely possible. If gravity were a little lower, it would be easy. If it was a little higher, it would be impossible. It's just a very tough engineering problem. I wasn't sure it could be solved for a while. But then, relatively recently, in the last twelve months or so, I've come to the conclusion that it can be solved. SpaceX is going to try to do it. We could fail. I'm not saying we're certain of success, but we're going to try to do it. We have a design that, on paper, doing the calculations, doing the simulations, does work. We need to make sure that those simulations and reality agree, because generally when they don't, reality wins.” National Press Club, 2011

ELON CLIPS

19,955,019 просмотров • 1 год назад

ELON TALKING ABOUT COST EFFICIENCY AT SPACEX 20 YEARS AGO “Anyone outside the space business assumes rockets are made of magic. So if you tell [suppliers] it's for a rocket, they go like, well, I don't think I'm quite good enough to do something for a rocket. We tell them, no, it'll be fine. Generally, we find as a principle that if you want something cheap, fast, and it's probably going to work, then you should use a regular commercial supplier. If you want something that's expensive, takes a long time, might work, use an aerospace supplier.” Source: National Space Society, May 2005

ELON TALKING ABOUT COST EFFICIENCY AT SPACEX 20 YEARS AGO “Anyone outside the space business assumes rockets are made of magic. So if you tell [suppliers] it's for a rocket, they go like, well, I don't think I'm quite good enough to do something for a rocket. We tell them, no, it'll be fine. Generally, we find as a principle that if you want something cheap, fast, and it's probably going to work, then you should use a regular commercial supplier. If you want something that's expensive, takes a long time, might work, use an aerospace supplier.” Source: National Space Society, May 2005

Mario Nawfal

2,702,722 просмотров • 1 год назад

I bet long term, SpaceX is going to be the default choice for overseas cargo deliveries, especially when Starship is proven to work. “Once you achieve full reusability, then it’s simply the cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant, because now you can reuse all aspects of the vehicle. The propellant we use for the Starship is liquid oxygen and liquid methane, which is the cheapest propellant you could possibly get. …So the cost of propellant for Starship will be less than the cost of jet aviation fuel, which means that you should be able to actually send cargo to space for less than the cost of cargo of an airplane going on a transoceanic trip.”

I bet long term, SpaceX is going to be the default choice for overseas cargo deliveries, especially when Starship is proven to work. “Once you achieve full reusability, then it’s simply the cost of access to orbit is just the cost of propellant, because now you can reuse all aspects of the vehicle. The propellant we use for the Starship is liquid oxygen and liquid methane, which is the cheapest propellant you could possibly get. …So the cost of propellant for Starship will be less than the cost of jet aviation fuel, which means that you should be able to actually send cargo to space for less than the cost of cargo of an airplane going on a transoceanic trip.”

Teslaconomics

140,124 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF ELON'S CYBERCAB AND ROBOVAN PRESENTATION 00:00 Welcome 01:16 Cybercab & Future of transportation 04:33 Cost 05:53 Timeline 07:13 Self-driving technology 10:05 Inductive charging 10:24 The cities of the future 11:04 Robovan 12:13 Optimus Welcome Welcome to the We, Robot party. We have quite a show for you tonight. I think you're going to like it. As you can see, I just arrived in the Robotaxi, the Cybercab. And there's 20 more where that came from. So they've been traveling, there's no people in them. As you can see, the car is just going by with no people. We have 50 fully autonomous cars here tonight. So you'll see model Y's and the Cybercabs, all driverless. You'll be able to take a ride in the Cybercab. There's no steering wheel or pedals. So I hope this goes well, we'll find out. You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark and dismal, where it's not a future you want to be in. So, you know, I love Blade Runner, but I don't know if we want that future. We want that duster he's wearing, but not the bleak apocalypse. We want to have a fun, exciting future that, if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you'd be like, yes, I wish I could be there now. That's what we want. Cybercab & Future of transportation So, when we think about transport today, there's a lot of pain that we take for granted, that we think is normal. Like having to drive around LA in 3 hours of traffic. Yeah, people that live in LA, I mean, you know, try to get from Pasadena to El Segundo during rush hour. You can fly to another city faster than you can get to LA. And you have to drive the whole way, unless you're in a Tesla. Of course, our Tesla already does quite well at this supervised self-driving. So, supervised full self-driving is actually working quite well. I'm sure there's people in the crowd who are using that. So, we'll move from supervised full self-driving to unsupervised full self-driving where the car, you could fall asleep and wake up at your destination. But there's also a challenge for a lot of people that cars cost too much. I mean, when you factor in everything that goes into a car and the car insurance and the car payments, storage of the car, it's very expensive. You say, like, how many hours a week are cars used? Your average passenger car is only used about 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. So, the vast majority of the time cars are just doing nothing. But if they're autonomous, they could be used, I don't know, five times more, maybe ten times more. So you could actually, for the same car, would have five times as much value, maybe ten times as much value. There's 168 hours in the week, and like I said, only ten of them are used for driving. And then, a bunch of those hours are looking for a parking spot, which can be pretty annoying at times. So, with autonomy, you get your time back. This is a very big deal. So it's not just, it'll save lives, like a lot of lives and prevent injuries. I think we'll see autonomous cars become ten times safer than a human. I mean, if you think of times past where there used to be an elevator operator in every elevator but once in a while, they get tired and accidentally shear somebody in half. Now, we have automated elevators. You just get an elevator and you press a button and you don't even think about it and it just takes you to the floor. And if you did see an elevator operator with a big relay switch, you'd be like, that's weird. That's how cars will be. And it's not just the lives saved in injuries, but if you think about the cumulative time that people spend in a car and the time that they will get back that they can now spend, well, I guess, on their phones or watching a movie or doing work or whatever you want to do you can think of the car in autonomous world as being like just little lounge. You're just sitting in a comfortable little lounge and you can do whatever you want while you're in this comfortable little lounge. And when you get out, you will be at your destination. So, yeah, it's gonna be awesome. Cost So, in fact, I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. The average cost of a bus per mile for a city, not the ticket price, because that is subsidized, but the average price is about a dollar a mile, whereas the cost of Cybercab we think probably over time, the operating cost is probably going to be around twenty cents a mile. Including taxes and everything else, it probably ends up being 30 or 40 cents a mile. And you will be able to buy one. And we expect the cost to be below $30,000. And I think there'll be an interesting business model where, let's say somebody is an Uber or Lyft driver today where they can actually sort of manage a fleet of cars and like, sort of manage, I don't know, 10, 20 cars and just take care of them. Like a shepherd tends their flock. You have a little flock of cars and you're the shepherd and you take care of your flock of cars. I think that would be pretty cool. I think it's going to be a glorious future. It's going to be really something special. Timeline We do expect actually to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And that's obviously, that's with the Model 3 and Model Y. And then we expect to be in production with the Cybercab, which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames, but in 2026. So, yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way. And we'll make this vehicle in very high volume. But well, before that, you will experience a robotic taxi via the Model 3 and Model Y program and model S and X, too. But the Model 3 and Y will achieve unsupervised full self-driving with permission, in wherever regulators essentially approve it. In the US, and then to follow outside the US. And Cybertruck, too. All our cars are basically, all cars that we make. Let's not get nuanced here. Self-driving technology One of the reasons why the computer can be so much better than a person is that we have millions of cars that are training on driving. It's like living millions of lives simultaneously and seeing very unusual situations that a person in their entire lifetime would not see. With that amount of training data, it's obviously going to be much better than what a human could be because you can't live a million lives. And it's also, it can see in all directions simultaneously and it doesn't get tired or text or any of those things. So, it will naturally be, like I said 10, 20, 30 times safer than a human, just for all those reasons. And I want to emphasize that the solution that we have is, AI and vision. So, there's no expensive equipment needed. The Model 3 and Model Y and S and X that we make today will be capable of full autonomy, unsupervised. And that means that our cost of producing the vehicle is low. Now, we are going to actually over-spec the computer for the Cybercab. So, our AI 5 computer will be somewhat over-spec'd because I think there's actually also an opportunity, sort of like an Amazon Web Services, where if the car is driving for 50 hours a week, there's still over 100 hours left and there's a potential there to have a massive amount of distributed inference compute, where if you've got like a fleet of 100 million vehicles and a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you have 100 gigawatts of compute, which is really quite substantial. And if it's there, you might as well use it so that I think will make sense. So, our autonomous future is here. As I said, we've got 50 Teslas driving autonomously. We're trying to give you a sense of what cities will be like in the future. And when you get in, you'll see like, it's really quite a wild experience to just be in a car with no steering wheel, no pedals, no controls, and it feels great. So we have enough vehicles here, so everyone should be able to try it out and experience the set that we've built here. It's a very big set. So it's like really we've used I don't know, 20, 30 acres or something like that. It's really big. So, it goes on, the ride's long. And we set it up to feel like a ride, like a park ride. So, it'll be cool and you'll get to experience it tonight. Inductive charging Something we're also doing is and it's really high time we did this is inductive charging. So, the robotaxi has no plug. It just goes over the inductive charger and charges. So, yeah, it's kind of how it should be. The cities of the future One of the things that is really interesting is how will this affect the cities that we live in. And when you drive around a city, or when the car drives you around the city, you'll see there's a lot of parking lots. There's parking lots everywhere, parking garages. What would happen if you have an autonomous world is that you can now turn parking lots into parks. And so, from we're taking the inglot out of parking lot. You're welcome. So, there's a lot of opportunity to create green space in the cities that we live in. So, like, that would be quite fantastic. Robovan Oh, and also, what happens if you need a vehicle that is bigger than a Model Y? The Robovan. We're going to make this and it's going to look like that. Now, can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That'd be sick. So this can carry up to 20 people, and it can also transport goods. You can configure it for goods transport within a city. Or transport of up to 20 people at a time. The Robovan is what's gonna solve for high density. If you want to take a sports team somewhere or you're looking to really get the cost of travel down to, I don't know, 5, 10 cents a mile, then you can use the Robovan. One of the things we want to do, and we've seen this with the Cybertruck, is we want to change the look of the roads. The future should look like the future. Optimus Speaking of robots. Everything we've developed for our cars, the batteries, power electronics, the advanced motors, gearboxes, the software, the AI inference computer, it all actually applies to a humanoid robot. The same techniques. It's just a robot with arms and legs instead of a robot with wheels. We've made a lot of progress with Optimus. And as you can see, we started up with someone in a robot suit. And then, we've progressed dramatically, year after year. So, if you extrapolate this, you're really going to have something spectacular, something that anyone could own. So, you can have your own personal R2-D2-C3PO. And I think at scale, this would cost something like, I don't know, $20,000, $30,000, probably less than a car is my prediction, long-term. It'll take us a minute to get to the long term. But fundamentally, at scale, the Optimus robot, you should be able to buy an Optimus robot for, I think, probably $20,000 to $30,000, long-term. And what can it do? It'll basically do anything you want. It can be a teacher or babysit your kids, it can walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks whatever you can think of, it will do. And, yeah, it's going to be awesome. I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind, because I think everyone of the 8 billion people of Earth, I think everyone's going to want their Optimus buddy. And there's going to be maybe two. And then, they'll be producing products and services. I predict, actually, provided we address risks of digital superintelligence, 80% probability of good outcome, look on the bright side, the cup is 80% full, the cost of products and services will decline dramatically. And basically, anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance the likes of which people have not, almost no one has envisioned. It will be something special. So now, one of the things we wanted to show tonight was that Optimus is not a canned video. It's not walled off. The Optimus robots will walk among you. Please, please be nice to the Optimus robots. You'll be able to walk right up to them and they'll serve drinks at the bar. I mean, it's a wild experience just to have humanoid robots and they're there, you're just in front of you. So yeah, with that, let's party!

FULL TRANSCRIPT OF ELON'S CYBERCAB AND ROBOVAN PRESENTATION 00:00 Welcome 01:16 Cybercab & Future of transportation 04:33 Cost 05:53 Timeline 07:13 Self-driving technology 10:05 Inductive charging 10:24 The cities of the future 11:04 Robovan 12:13 Optimus Welcome Welcome to the We, Robot party. We have quite a show for you tonight. I think you're going to like it. As you can see, I just arrived in the Robotaxi, the Cybercab. And there's 20 more where that came from. So they've been traveling, there's no people in them. As you can see, the car is just going by with no people. We have 50 fully autonomous cars here tonight. So you'll see model Y's and the Cybercabs, all driverless. You'll be able to take a ride in the Cybercab. There's no steering wheel or pedals. So I hope this goes well, we'll find out. You see a lot of sci-fi movies where the future is dark and dismal, where it's not a future you want to be in. So, you know, I love Blade Runner, but I don't know if we want that future. We want that duster he's wearing, but not the bleak apocalypse. We want to have a fun, exciting future that, if you could look in a crystal ball and see the future, you'd be like, yes, I wish I could be there now. That's what we want. Cybercab & Future of transportation So, when we think about transport today, there's a lot of pain that we take for granted, that we think is normal. Like having to drive around LA in 3 hours of traffic. Yeah, people that live in LA, I mean, you know, try to get from Pasadena to El Segundo during rush hour. You can fly to another city faster than you can get to LA. And you have to drive the whole way, unless you're in a Tesla. Of course, our Tesla already does quite well at this supervised self-driving. So, supervised full self-driving is actually working quite well. I'm sure there's people in the crowd who are using that. So, we'll move from supervised full self-driving to unsupervised full self-driving where the car, you could fall asleep and wake up at your destination. But there's also a challenge for a lot of people that cars cost too much. I mean, when you factor in everything that goes into a car and the car insurance and the car payments, storage of the car, it's very expensive. You say, like, how many hours a week are cars used? Your average passenger car is only used about 10 hours a week out of 168 hours. So, the vast majority of the time cars are just doing nothing. But if they're autonomous, they could be used, I don't know, five times more, maybe ten times more. So you could actually, for the same car, would have five times as much value, maybe ten times as much value. There's 168 hours in the week, and like I said, only ten of them are used for driving. And then, a bunch of those hours are looking for a parking spot, which can be pretty annoying at times. So, with autonomy, you get your time back. This is a very big deal. So it's not just, it'll save lives, like a lot of lives and prevent injuries. I think we'll see autonomous cars become ten times safer than a human. I mean, if you think of times past where there used to be an elevator operator in every elevator but once in a while, they get tired and accidentally shear somebody in half. Now, we have automated elevators. You just get an elevator and you press a button and you don't even think about it and it just takes you to the floor. And if you did see an elevator operator with a big relay switch, you'd be like, that's weird. That's how cars will be. And it's not just the lives saved in injuries, but if you think about the cumulative time that people spend in a car and the time that they will get back that they can now spend, well, I guess, on their phones or watching a movie or doing work or whatever you want to do you can think of the car in autonomous world as being like just little lounge. You're just sitting in a comfortable little lounge and you can do whatever you want while you're in this comfortable little lounge. And when you get out, you will be at your destination. So, yeah, it's gonna be awesome. Cost So, in fact, I think the cost of autonomous transport will be so low that you can think of it like individualized mass transit. The average cost of a bus per mile for a city, not the ticket price, because that is subsidized, but the average price is about a dollar a mile, whereas the cost of Cybercab we think probably over time, the operating cost is probably going to be around twenty cents a mile. Including taxes and everything else, it probably ends up being 30 or 40 cents a mile. And you will be able to buy one. And we expect the cost to be below $30,000. And I think there'll be an interesting business model where, let's say somebody is an Uber or Lyft driver today where they can actually sort of manage a fleet of cars and like, sort of manage, I don't know, 10, 20 cars and just take care of them. Like a shepherd tends their flock. You have a little flock of cars and you're the shepherd and you take care of your flock of cars. I think that would be pretty cool. I think it's going to be a glorious future. It's going to be really something special. Timeline We do expect actually to start fully autonomous unsupervised FSD in Texas and California next year. And that's obviously, that's with the Model 3 and Model Y. And then we expect to be in production with the Cybercab, which is really highly optimized for autonomous transport in probably, I tend to be a little optimistic with time frames, but in 2026. So, yeah, before 2027, let me put it that way. And we'll make this vehicle in very high volume. But well, before that, you will experience a robotic taxi via the Model 3 and Model Y program and model S and X, too. But the Model 3 and Y will achieve unsupervised full self-driving with permission, in wherever regulators essentially approve it. In the US, and then to follow outside the US. And Cybertruck, too. All our cars are basically, all cars that we make. Let's not get nuanced here. Self-driving technology One of the reasons why the computer can be so much better than a person is that we have millions of cars that are training on driving. It's like living millions of lives simultaneously and seeing very unusual situations that a person in their entire lifetime would not see. With that amount of training data, it's obviously going to be much better than what a human could be because you can't live a million lives. And it's also, it can see in all directions simultaneously and it doesn't get tired or text or any of those things. So, it will naturally be, like I said 10, 20, 30 times safer than a human, just for all those reasons. And I want to emphasize that the solution that we have is, AI and vision. So, there's no expensive equipment needed. The Model 3 and Model Y and S and X that we make today will be capable of full autonomy, unsupervised. And that means that our cost of producing the vehicle is low. Now, we are going to actually over-spec the computer for the Cybercab. So, our AI 5 computer will be somewhat over-spec'd because I think there's actually also an opportunity, sort of like an Amazon Web Services, where if the car is driving for 50 hours a week, there's still over 100 hours left and there's a potential there to have a massive amount of distributed inference compute, where if you've got like a fleet of 100 million vehicles and a kilowatt of efficient inference compute, you have 100 gigawatts of compute, which is really quite substantial. And if it's there, you might as well use it so that I think will make sense. So, our autonomous future is here. As I said, we've got 50 Teslas driving autonomously. We're trying to give you a sense of what cities will be like in the future. And when you get in, you'll see like, it's really quite a wild experience to just be in a car with no steering wheel, no pedals, no controls, and it feels great. So we have enough vehicles here, so everyone should be able to try it out and experience the set that we've built here. It's a very big set. So it's like really we've used I don't know, 20, 30 acres or something like that. It's really big. So, it goes on, the ride's long. And we set it up to feel like a ride, like a park ride. So, it'll be cool and you'll get to experience it tonight. Inductive charging Something we're also doing is and it's really high time we did this is inductive charging. So, the robotaxi has no plug. It just goes over the inductive charger and charges. So, yeah, it's kind of how it should be. The cities of the future One of the things that is really interesting is how will this affect the cities that we live in. And when you drive around a city, or when the car drives you around the city, you'll see there's a lot of parking lots. There's parking lots everywhere, parking garages. What would happen if you have an autonomous world is that you can now turn parking lots into parks. And so, from we're taking the inglot out of parking lot. You're welcome. So, there's a lot of opportunity to create green space in the cities that we live in. So, like, that would be quite fantastic. Robovan Oh, and also, what happens if you need a vehicle that is bigger than a Model Y? The Robovan. We're going to make this and it's going to look like that. Now, can you imagine going down the streets and you see this coming towards you? That'd be sick. So this can carry up to 20 people, and it can also transport goods. You can configure it for goods transport within a city. Or transport of up to 20 people at a time. The Robovan is what's gonna solve for high density. If you want to take a sports team somewhere or you're looking to really get the cost of travel down to, I don't know, 5, 10 cents a mile, then you can use the Robovan. One of the things we want to do, and we've seen this with the Cybertruck, is we want to change the look of the roads. The future should look like the future. Optimus Speaking of robots. Everything we've developed for our cars, the batteries, power electronics, the advanced motors, gearboxes, the software, the AI inference computer, it all actually applies to a humanoid robot. The same techniques. It's just a robot with arms and legs instead of a robot with wheels. We've made a lot of progress with Optimus. And as you can see, we started up with someone in a robot suit. And then, we've progressed dramatically, year after year. So, if you extrapolate this, you're really going to have something spectacular, something that anyone could own. So, you can have your own personal R2-D2-C3PO. And I think at scale, this would cost something like, I don't know, $20,000, $30,000, probably less than a car is my prediction, long-term. It'll take us a minute to get to the long term. But fundamentally, at scale, the Optimus robot, you should be able to buy an Optimus robot for, I think, probably $20,000 to $30,000, long-term. And what can it do? It'll basically do anything you want. It can be a teacher or babysit your kids, it can walk your dog, mow your lawn, get the groceries, just be your friend, serve drinks whatever you can think of, it will do. And, yeah, it's going to be awesome. I think this will be the biggest product ever of any kind, because I think everyone of the 8 billion people of Earth, I think everyone's going to want their Optimus buddy. And there's going to be maybe two. And then, they'll be producing products and services. I predict, actually, provided we address risks of digital superintelligence, 80% probability of good outcome, look on the bright side, the cup is 80% full, the cost of products and services will decline dramatically. And basically, anyone will be able to have any products and services they want. It will be an age of abundance the likes of which people have not, almost no one has envisioned. It will be something special. So now, one of the things we wanted to show tonight was that Optimus is not a canned video. It's not walled off. The Optimus robots will walk among you. Please, please be nice to the Optimus robots. You'll be able to walk right up to them and they'll serve drinks at the bar. I mean, it's a wild experience just to have humanoid robots and they're there, you're just in front of you. So yeah, with that, let's party!

Mario Nawfal

241,051 просмотров • 1 год назад