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Elon Musk breaks down the first-principles math that told him rockets were massively overpriced "How much should a rocket cost? The typical approach people take is they look historically at what rockets cost and assume any new rocket must be similar to the prior cost" "A first-principles approach: you...

28,509 просмотров • 4 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Elon Musk explains his idea generation process in 2 minutes: "I tend to think of things from a physics standpoint, from a first principles standpoint. What would be the best way to accomplish something? And then pursue that." Elon explains how this reveals hidden opportunities: "That's also a good way to determine if something is far from its optimum. On rockets, for example, you could reason by analogy and say the rocket's gonna cost a certain amount because that's what prior rockets have cost. Or you can say: What is a rocket made of? What are the material constituents? What do they weigh? What's the cost per unit mass? That sets the limit asymptotically for what a rocket can be. So if you can figure out some creative way to rearrange those elements into a rocket shape, you can achieve a much better outcome." He shares a second source of ideas: "Combining ideas from different industries is really helpful for innovation. What have people discovered in one industry that can be applied to other industries? That's a great source of ideas." Elon also explains why he started with software: "The great thing about software or anything which just involves intellectual capital is that you and a few friends can just do it. That's why doing some sort of internet thing is great as an initial company. That's why Zip2 and PayPal gave me the capital to attempt more capital-intensive activities." He concludes: "Usually you just struggle on a solution. You try a bunch of things. Most of them don't work. Occasionally one does."

Jaynit

31,845 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

In 2002, Elon Musk tried to buy a rocket. The Russians quoted him $8 million per unit. American aerospace companies wanted over $65 million. He walked away from both. On the flight home, he opened a spreadsheet and broke down the raw materials. Aerospace-grade aluminum. Titanium. Copper. Carbon fiber. He priced each on the commodity market. The total came to roughly 2% of what the industry was charging. That gap is what first principles thinking actually looks like. Not "how do we negotiate a better deal." Not "who else sells rockets." Just: what is this thing actually made of, and why does it cost what it costs? The answer was overhead. Legacy processes. Layers of contractors and subcontractors. Margins stacked on margins. Nobody had questioned the price because nobody had questioned the structure. Musk decided to build it himself. The first Falcon 1 exploded 33 seconds after launch. The second made it further but failed to reach orbit. The third exploded too. Three rockets. Three failures. SpaceX was almost out of money. Musk put his last $35 million into the company. If the fourth launch failed, that was it. September 28, 2008. Falcon 1 Flight 4 reached orbit. First privately developed liquid fuel rocket to ever do it. Seven years later, they landed a booster back on Earth for the first time. Now they do it routinely. The cost per launch dropped from $65 million to under $3 million for a reused Falcon 9 booster. Everyone else was reasoning by analogy: rockets are expensive because rockets have always been expensive. Musk reasoned from atoms: rockets are expensive because nobody rebuilt the system from the ground up.

Peak Thinkers

160,557 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад