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Elon says Grok Code is on track to outperform Claude at coding - by June this year Progress is expected to bring it close to Claude by April, roughly equal by May, and potentially ahead once Colossus 2 is fully running "By then, like a self-driving car that drives...

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.Elon Musk says that "the right metric for intelligence is the ability to predict the future." Elon says that if your predictions are not very good, you're not that smart. During his interview with CNBC, Elon confirmed that there would be fully autonomous Teslas on the streets of Austin by the end of June. I predicted that Tesla would not have non-geofenced, unsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas in Austin by July 1. Today is July 1, and Elon's predictions were completely wrong. By his own definition of intelligence, he is not that smart. I have always been better at predicting things about Tesla Full Self-Driving than Elon Musk is. That's why No Safe Words crowned me the "world's leading autonomous vehicle safety expert". As I predicted, Tesla's "Robotaxi" is geofenced to a small area in Austin. It is not autonomous, and is supervised both remotely and from the passenger seat. The only passengers it has carried so far are Tesla Cultists and shareholders. Tesla has not launched a real robotaxi service like the one Waymo operates. The 11 supervised robotaxis it has deployed made at least 17 safety critical and driving errors in just the first week of operation. Elon predicted in October 2024 that Tesla would have a 30% growth in sales in 2025. Tesla's sales fell 13% in Q1 2025 and tomorrow's delivery numbers are expected to be similarly terrible. I predict that Tesla's sales growth in 2025 will be less than 30%. Elon also predicted every year for the past 11 years that Tesla would solve autonomous driving by the end of the year. His predictions have been wrong every single year for over a decade. I predict that Tesla will not solve autonomous driving this year. Elon says "you're as intelligent as you can predict the future well". He is terrible at predicting the future, so according to "the right metric for intelligence", he is not that smart. Elon also predicted that Tesla would have a "thousand" robotaxis "within a few months" during his CNBC interview. I predict that by October 1, Tesla will not have 1,000 robotaxis offering unsupervised rides to ordinary customers.

Dan O'Dowd

128,935 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce