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Emergency volatility reminder from Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️: Selling vol at 40 is not necessarily better than selling vol at 10! "Markets aren't that dumb." Full interview: Apple Spotify

Jack Farley

89,386 subscribers

42,086 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce •via X (Twitter)

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11 Yorum

Andy Constan profil fotoğrafı

Andy Constan1 yıl önce

I agree with @bennpeifert (Tho I also sold vix futures at 32 to hedge up some long SPX Puts both delta as a "rich" spec trade). As someone who has traded Vol for 39 Years, perhaps longer than many vol guys have been alive, selling vol at high levels is not a "better" trade than selling it at low levels. Any level has a high win ratio because selling vol recieves expected risk premium. AND selling vol at high levels means realized is likely to be high. so you dont make extra return.

WAGMI | Crypto, DeFi & Web3 News profil fotoğrafı

WAGMI | Crypto, DeFi & Web3 News1 yıl önce

"My friends think I'm a crypto genius, (I'm not) it's because I listen to WAGMI’s daily podcast (and they have no idea it exists)" - Every Crypto Degen

Danny Dayan profil fotoğrafı

Danny Dayan1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Deleted my prior comment after watching the whole thing, it was a great interview and much of what Benn said has come true.

Marci Phebe profil fotoğrafı

Marci Phebe1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Recommend a great stock blogger. @AmbriaLatay🌈 Observe this blogger and his team for a while and find that they have intraday trading and stock sharing every day Try to follow them for a while and make $86,500 Thanks to @AmbriaLatay and his team, you deserve him too🚩

Matthew Schrager profil fotoğrafı

Matthew Schrager1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Agree. Markets may not be perfectly efficient, but they may as well be for purposes of casual traders. If there were money lying on the floor, professionals would have already taken it. Ergo, what you’re seeing is probably not money on the floor, despite what it may seem.

KeyPaganRush profil fotoğrafı

KeyPaganRush1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert First they started doubting the health experts and now they start to doubt the vol experts the US is really doomed innit

686 Ebullient Prism profil fotoğrafı

686 Ebullient Prism1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Sith Lord home-wear, Enchanted neck, elven engineering specs nice cosmetic combo, carry on

Medic Trader profil fotoğrafı

Medic Trader1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Obviously nothing is a dead certainty, however Vol as spent almost infinite more time sub 40 than it has sub 10. I know where I’d rather be positioning myself now

SpeckYouLater profil fotoğrafı

SpeckYouLater1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert @bennpeifert has never even traded an option before. He only deals in Pokémon cards and video game outfits. I can show you how to sell puts for free money but he doesn’t like that either.

SpeckYouLater profil fotoğrafı

SpeckYouLater1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Then also who wants to sell vol at 10-12. I like the risk of selling a 40 vol more.

bergkampbrain profil fotoğrafı

bergkampbrain1 yıl önce

@bennpeifert Fundamentalist are smarter than Quants or people with derivative backgrounds. People with derivatives/quant backgrounds aren’t very well versed on economic outcomes. I respect them understanding pricing, but not much else more.

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Warren Buffett in 1996: "We would not sell part of your interest in Berkshire at a price which we did not feel was adequate for present shareholders. It's that simple." "If we sell 1% of the company [by issuing Class B shares], we're selling 1% of your ownership in See's Candy. We're selling 1% of your ownership in GEICO. We're selling 1% of your ownership in The Buffalo News." "We have no intention of selling 1% or 10% or 100% of any of those entities at a price that is not fair to present shareholders."

Warren Buffett in 1996: "We would not sell part of your interest in Berkshire at a price which we did not feel was adequate for present shareholders. It's that simple." "If we sell 1% of the company [by issuing Class B shares], we're selling 1% of your ownership in See's Candy. We're selling 1% of your ownership in GEICO. We're selling 1% of your ownership in The Buffalo News." "We have no intention of selling 1% or 10% or 100% of any of those entities at a price that is not fair to present shareholders."

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Tommy Borum † ⚡︎

41,961 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

For a precious metals buyer, gold vol popping and the put skew going vertical isn't a warning sign. If anything it's the best setup you'll get. Gold vol is up around the 80th percentile, and the put skew is about as steep as I can remember. The market is paying a fat premium for downside protection in gold. If you're nervous, that looks like a reason to stay away. If you actually want to own gold lower down, it's the opposite. Steep put skew plus high vol means the puts you'd be selling are richly priced. So selling cash-covered puts at a level you'd happily buy gold anyway has rarely looked this attractive.

For a precious metals buyer, gold vol popping and the put skew going vertical isn't a warning sign. If anything it's the best setup you'll get. Gold vol is up around the 80th percentile, and the put skew is about as steep as I can remember. The market is paying a fat premium for downside protection in gold. If you're nervous, that looks like a reason to stay away. If you actually want to own gold lower down, it's the opposite. Steep put skew plus high vol means the puts you'd be selling are richly priced. So selling cash-covered puts at a level you'd happily buy gold anyway has rarely looked this attractive.

Imran Lakha | Options Insight

41,204 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

implied vol was 11.42% on Feb 19, 2020 realized vol over the next 30 days: 95.33% the market was pricing a normal week. what actually happened was one of the most violent moves in financial history that gap between implied and realized volatility is the single most important number quant desks watch implied vol is what options are pricing in for the future realized vol is what actually happened when implied is far below realized, options are cheap relative to what the market will actually do when implied is far above realized, options are expensive relative to what the market will actually do that spread has a name: the volatility risk premium Citadel, Susquehanna, Optiver built entire options desks around one question: what's the expected value of shorting overpriced vol vs buying underpriced vol? the scatter plot in the video shows every data point over years of history regression line: y = -0.73x + 18.5% translation: when implied vol is low, realized vol tends to explode. when implied vol is high, realized vol tends to collapse that's mean reversion in volatility itself. not price. vol retail buys calls hoping the stock goes up quant desks measure whether the option itself is mispriced relative to statistical expectation, and trade the premium one is a directional bet the other is arbitraging the gap between what people expect and what actually happens > volatility risk premium: documented in academic literature since the 1980s > average VRP on S&P 500: implied vol overprices realized vol by 3-5% historically > data: free from CBOE, Yahoo Finance, options chains > implementation: 20 lines of Python Feb 19, 2020 was a warning the math had been printing for weeks nobody in retail was reading it full breakdown in the video below

implied vol was 11.42% on Feb 19, 2020 realized vol over the next 30 days: 95.33% the market was pricing a normal week. what actually happened was one of the most violent moves in financial history that gap between implied and realized volatility is the single most important number quant desks watch implied vol is what options are pricing in for the future realized vol is what actually happened when implied is far below realized, options are cheap relative to what the market will actually do when implied is far above realized, options are expensive relative to what the market will actually do that spread has a name: the volatility risk premium Citadel, Susquehanna, Optiver built entire options desks around one question: what's the expected value of shorting overpriced vol vs buying underpriced vol? the scatter plot in the video shows every data point over years of history regression line: y = -0.73x + 18.5% translation: when implied vol is low, realized vol tends to explode. when implied vol is high, realized vol tends to collapse that's mean reversion in volatility itself. not price. vol retail buys calls hoping the stock goes up quant desks measure whether the option itself is mispriced relative to statistical expectation, and trade the premium one is a directional bet the other is arbitraging the gap between what people expect and what actually happens > volatility risk premium: documented in academic literature since the 1980s > average VRP on S&P 500: implied vol overprices realized vol by 3-5% historically > data: free from CBOE, Yahoo Finance, options chains > implementation: 20 lines of Python Feb 19, 2020 was a warning the math had been printing for weeks nobody in retail was reading it full breakdown in the video below

delost

28,202 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

"This Kenny Omega is obviously different from the Kenny Omega of 5 years ago. He does little things like selling the arm. It's a different kind of selling that everyone else does. He's on a different level at certain things than anyone in this business now. It's very Terry Funk." - Dave Meltzer

"This Kenny Omega is obviously different from the Kenny Omega of 5 years ago. He does little things like selling the arm. It's a different kind of selling that everyone else does. He's on a different level at certain things than anyone in this business now. It's very Terry Funk." - Dave Meltzer

Wrestling Observer

42,645 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

On February 5, 2018, a fund called XIV lost $2 billion in fifteen minutes. Retail owned it. A Yale Nobel laureate had explained the exact trade that killed it on YouTube seven years earlier. Nobody watched. Nobody warned them. Every option seller alive is still running a version of the same trade. The Nobel laureate is Robert Shiller. He won in 2013. His Yale course is ECON 252, Financial Markets. Lecture 17 is on options and runs 71 minutes. Shiller walks through the Black-Scholes derivation, then does something no other professor does. He puts implied volatility next to realized volatility on the same chart. The gap is obvious. The gap is the trade. Implied vol is what people pay for options. Realized vol is what actually happens. For 30 years the VIX has averaged 4 points higher than realized S&P vol. That gap is called the variance risk premium. It means the average put buyer pays a 4 vol overcharge above what the market actually does. Selling that overcharge is one of the most persistent edges in finance. It works for years. Until it does not. XIV was that trade in a ticker. It compounded 40 percent a year from 2011 to early 2018. Retail piled in. Assets crossed $2 billion. On February 5, 2018, spot VIX doubled in a single session. XIV lost 96 percent between 4pm and after-hours. Credit Suisse pulled the plug two weeks later. Holders got pennies. Shiller had drawn the tail seven years earlier. He named it. He told a room of Yale undergrads that anyone selling this without a hedge would eventually give it all back. The section is six minutes long. It is on YouTube. Shiller is 80. He still teaches at Yale. ECON 252 has been free since 2008. The lecture is free. The trade is real. The tail is what killed them.

On February 5, 2018, a fund called XIV lost $2 billion in fifteen minutes. Retail owned it. A Yale Nobel laureate had explained the exact trade that killed it on YouTube seven years earlier. Nobody watched. Nobody warned them. Every option seller alive is still running a version of the same trade. The Nobel laureate is Robert Shiller. He won in 2013. His Yale course is ECON 252, Financial Markets. Lecture 17 is on options and runs 71 minutes. Shiller walks through the Black-Scholes derivation, then does something no other professor does. He puts implied volatility next to realized volatility on the same chart. The gap is obvious. The gap is the trade. Implied vol is what people pay for options. Realized vol is what actually happens. For 30 years the VIX has averaged 4 points higher than realized S&P vol. That gap is called the variance risk premium. It means the average put buyer pays a 4 vol overcharge above what the market actually does. Selling that overcharge is one of the most persistent edges in finance. It works for years. Until it does not. XIV was that trade in a ticker. It compounded 40 percent a year from 2011 to early 2018. Retail piled in. Assets crossed $2 billion. On February 5, 2018, spot VIX doubled in a single session. XIV lost 96 percent between 4pm and after-hours. Credit Suisse pulled the plug two weeks later. Holders got pennies. Shiller had drawn the tail seven years earlier. He named it. He told a room of Yale undergrads that anyone selling this without a hedge would eventually give it all back. The section is six minutes long. It is on YouTube. Shiller is 80. He still teaches at Yale. ECON 252 has been free since 2008. The lecture is free. The trade is real. The tail is what killed them.

Veles

80,338 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

robert engle won the nobel prize in economics for proving something hedge funds already knew they never bothered to mention it to retail price direction is mostly noise. but volatility? predictable. mathematically, provably, across every liquid market ever studied it clusters - that's not a pattern someone found, it's a structural law. high vol today predicts high vol tomorrow with 70%+ historical accuracy the model is called GARCH. published in every econometrics textbook on earth, chapter 4, about 60 lines of python to run quant desks at citadel and D.E. Shaw don't ask "will it go up?" - they ask "will the next move be large or small?" because sizing correctly inside a vol regime is worth more than being right on direction a trader right 48% of the time who sizes with vol awareness beats someone right 62% of the time sizing blindly - every time, over any long enough sample run it on 10 years of SPY data: > low vol state -> 74% chance next session stays low vol > vol spike -> 81% chance next session is also elevated now you're not predicting markets. you're reading a state machine the market keeps filling in for you every single session with real data the predictable part of markets was never price direction it was the distribution of price. the size of the moves. which regime you're currently inside math is free, data is free, implementation is free you were just told to stare at candlesticks instead Bookmark this before the feed buries it

robert engle won the nobel prize in economics for proving something hedge funds already knew they never bothered to mention it to retail price direction is mostly noise. but volatility? predictable. mathematically, provably, across every liquid market ever studied it clusters - that's not a pattern someone found, it's a structural law. high vol today predicts high vol tomorrow with 70%+ historical accuracy the model is called GARCH. published in every econometrics textbook on earth, chapter 4, about 60 lines of python to run quant desks at citadel and D.E. Shaw don't ask "will it go up?" - they ask "will the next move be large or small?" because sizing correctly inside a vol regime is worth more than being right on direction a trader right 48% of the time who sizes with vol awareness beats someone right 62% of the time sizing blindly - every time, over any long enough sample run it on 10 years of SPY data: > low vol state -> 74% chance next session stays low vol > vol spike -> 81% chance next session is also elevated now you're not predicting markets. you're reading a state machine the market keeps filling in for you every single session with real data the predictable part of markets was never price direction it was the distribution of price. the size of the moves. which regime you're currently inside math is free, data is free, implementation is free you were just told to stare at candlesticks instead Bookmark this before the feed buries it

Hrundel75 🐷

806,519 görüntüleme • 11 gün önce

Russia's fuel shortage is becoming so severe that Russians are reviving Soviet-era survival tactics. People are paying for places in fuel queues, buying gasoline through Telegram black markets, selling, arranging fuel deliveries from tanker trucks, and even searching online for how to make gasoline at home.

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Vatnik Soup

80,236 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

"He has better instincts about human beings than anybody that I've ever met." VP Vance reveals what he's learned from President Trump. Watch the full exclusive interview on Sean Hannity 🇺🇸 tonight at 9PM ET.

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Fox News

84,025 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

He’s been slightly better than his numbers suggest, but the reality is Devin Williams is simply “just another guy” when it comes to bullpen arms He’s no longer a true closer, I have no problem selling him at the deadline and getting off the majority of that contract moving ⏩

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Unbiased Mets Fan

32,688 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🚨🚨360 PAPER CONTRACTS TO EVERY 1OZ OF PHYSICAL SILVER💣 Selling Precious Metals that don't exist. 📣📣LONDON IS OUT OF SILVER🚨 LBMA needs at least 150 MILLION OZ OF SILVER just to stabilize the situation. This unravels the illusion of free and fair markets based on supply and demand. Selling Precious Metals that they don't own is not just isolated to the Metals but it is a systemic risk in the entire financial system. They are selling securities by the Billions that don't exist each and everyday. SILVER FAILURE TO DELIVER WILL EXPOSE THE ENTIRE PONZI SCHEME‼️

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Stephanie

225,270 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Frank At UVU getting heated. He only likes certain questions.. She didn’t say that ! Most of the people from Sept 10 were here. Witnesses? And why is he selling books, giving a lecture on the Bible and talking about the trial?

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Alley Files

50,880 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce