Emergency volatility reminder from Benn Eifert 🥷🏴‍☠️: Selling vol at 40 is not necessarily better than selling vol at 10! "Markets aren't that dumb." Full interview: Apple Spotify

I agree with @bennpeifert (Tho I also sold vix futures at 32 to hedge up some long SPX Puts both delta as a "rich" spec trade). As someone who has traded Vol for 39 Years, perhaps longer than many vol guys have been alive, selling vol at high levels is not a "better" trade than selling it at low levels. Any level has a high win ratio because selling vol recieves expected risk premium. AND selling vol at high levels means realized is likely to be high. so you dont make extra return.

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@bennpeifert Deleted my prior comment after watching the whole thing, it was a great interview and much of what Benn said has come true.

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@bennpeifert Agree. Markets may not be perfectly efficient, but they may as well be for purposes of casual traders. If there were money lying on the floor, professionals would have already taken it. Ergo, what you’re seeing is probably not money on the floor, despite what it may seem.

@bennpeifert First they started doubting the health experts and now they start to doubt the vol experts the US is really doomed innit

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@bennpeifert Obviously nothing is a dead certainty, however Vol as spent almost infinite more time sub 40 than it has sub 10. I know where I’d rather be positioning myself now

@bennpeifert @bennpeifert has never even traded an option before. He only deals in Pokémon cards and video game outfits. I can show you how to sell puts for free money but he doesn’t like that either.

@bennpeifert Then also who wants to sell vol at 10-12. I like the risk of selling a 40 vol more.

@bennpeifert Fundamentalist are smarter than Quants or people with derivative backgrounds. People with derivatives/quant backgrounds aren’t very well versed on economic outcomes. I respect them understanding pricing, but not much else more.