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Equity Trading Through Counterparty Analysis and Edge This presents a framework for successful discretionary long/short equity trading that centers on counterparty analysis rather than abstract valuation alone. A trader must constantly ask who is on the other side of the transaction and why they are willing to trade at... show more

TheValueist

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184,992 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $127,000 on Polymarket His trading bot makes 196.8 trades per hour and buys markets for $15.6. It trades mispricing on short crypto Up/Down markets with an average entry price of 0.559 His strategy is simple: > Buys with limit orders > Compares current BTC/ETH prices with Polymarket prices and looks for undervalued outcomes > Buys the opposite side as a hedge or to flip the position This guy’s Polymarket account: He captures a consistent micro edge and repeats this hundreds of times, growing his capital

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VALIX

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The best signal is sometimes NO signal. That is why I do not trade when Intelligent Balance shows less than 60%. Below 60% means one thing to me: NO CLEAR EDGE. And that is exactly where most traders destroy their account. They see a sweep. They see an iFVG. They see CISD. They convince themselves there is a trade. But without a strong more probable side, the setup has no real filter. For me: 60%+ = I have a side to focus on. Below 60% = I protect capital. Simple. Intelligent Balance is not only there to tell me where to trade. It is there to tell me when NOT to trade. Because forcing trades in a low-edge environment is not trading. It is gambling with extra steps. Would you skip a session if the indicator told you there is no clear edge?

The best signal is sometimes NO signal. That is why I do not trade when Intelligent Balance shows less than 60%. Below 60% means one thing to me: NO CLEAR EDGE. And that is exactly where most traders destroy their account. They see a sweep. They see an iFVG. They see CISD. They convince themselves there is a trade. But without a strong more probable side, the setup has no real filter. For me: 60%+ = I have a side to focus on. Below 60% = I protect capital. Simple. Intelligent Balance is not only there to tell me where to trade. It is there to tell me when NOT to trade. Because forcing trades in a low-edge environment is not trading. It is gambling with extra steps. Would you skip a session if the indicator told you there is no clear edge?

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This trader made +$177,981 on Polymarket with his HFT algorithm, with an average trade of $28 His bot makes around 150 trades per hour, or 2.5 trades per minute. It trades BTC, ETH, and SOL Up/Down markets, constantly comparing its own fair probability with the price on Polymarket Its strategy: 1. Buys the side where its model sees an edge 2. Continues increasing the position as the price moves, until the mispricing fully disappears 3. When the signal reverses, it buys the opposite outcome and turns part of the inventory into a dynamic hedge His nickname: std0 Follow this account and trade on Polymarket through this bot: Stats: > Total Deposit: $3.7K > Win Rate: 52% > PnL: +$178k Using this strategy and high-quality execution, he captures a micro edge and repeats it thousands of times That’s how he reached a 4,810% ROI in 5 months of trading

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Today The Arena rolls out the next evolution of social trading! Introducing Copy Trading Here’s how it works 👇 Automatically copy any trader of Arena perps on Hyperliquid. Check the sentiment around the trader based on their recent trades and pledge a certain amount to copy trade them. Determine how much you want to pledge to copy a specific trader. When the trader puts in the trade, we calculate what percentage of their total portfolio is on the line and we mirror that percentage based on the funds you’ve pledged. Each time the trader initiates a trade, funds will automatically be deployed to copy the trade. Even if it’s the middle of the night and you’re fast asleep, never miss another profitable trade! For example, if you pledge $1,000 to copy a trader and they put 5% of their portfolio on a trade, $50 will be automatically deployed on the same trade. Traders earn fees from their copy traders after each profitable trade. The only action that will not be copied is adding additional margin, but we will still give the copy traders the option to manually add more margin very soon. If you’re a profitable trader, gain a following and get rewarded for making others money. If you are not a profitable trader, level up today by copying some of the best traders on a transparent leaderboard. Earn more, trade less. Only on The Arena ⚔️

Today The Arena rolls out the next evolution of social trading! Introducing Copy Trading Here’s how it works 👇 Automatically copy any trader of Arena perps on Hyperliquid. Check the sentiment around the trader based on their recent trades and pledge a certain amount to copy trade them. Determine how much you want to pledge to copy a specific trader. When the trader puts in the trade, we calculate what percentage of their total portfolio is on the line and we mirror that percentage based on the funds you’ve pledged. Each time the trader initiates a trade, funds will automatically be deployed to copy the trade. Even if it’s the middle of the night and you’re fast asleep, never miss another profitable trade! For example, if you pledge $1,000 to copy a trader and they put 5% of their portfolio on a trade, $50 will be automatically deployed on the same trade. Traders earn fees from their copy traders after each profitable trade. The only action that will not be copied is adding additional margin, but we will still give the copy traders the option to manually add more margin very soon. If you’re a profitable trader, gain a following and get rewarded for making others money. If you are not a profitable trader, level up today by copying some of the best traders on a transparent leaderboard. Earn more, trade less. Only on The Arena ⚔️

The Arena ⚔️

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EDGE REVEALED: How an Ex-Jane Street Trader Finds Edge in Markets & Life Agustin Lebron Agustin Lebron (former Jane Street trader, author of The Laws of Trading, now working at an AI startup applying reinforcement learning to market execution) breaks down what edge really means — and how to find yours in trading, careers & life. “Edge is something that either you know or you can do that the marginal participant in that market either doesn’t or can’t.” We cover: - What edge actually means & how Jane Street builds organizational edge (their worst skill is still "pretty decent") - Why you can never truly know if you have edge — the statistical vs intuitive approaches - The consolidation of quant trading: from dozens of options firms to a handful of giants - The gamblification of everything — retail trading, sports betting & prediction markets fueling quant profits - What it was like having Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) as a Jane Street intern: "Day one, I'm going to ask all the questions" - How to apply edge thinking to your own career: find what you're differentially good at - Raising teenagers in the AI age: why the traditional path still works, but other paths are opening up 00:00 Introduction 00:44 What is edge in financial markets 01:43 Jane Street and organizational structures for quant trading 03:46 Identifying and validating edge in trading 06:22 Navigating extreme market events and volatility 09:37 Future of quant trading and consolidation 12:15 Why quant firm profits have increased 14:42 The gamblization of everything 15:55 Who should pursue a career in quant trading 18:19 Applying the concept of edge to career and life decisions 20:56 Advice for interns to excel in quant trading 23:44 Predicting long-term success in trading interns 25:08 Sam Bankman-Fried as an intern and FTX reflections 28:15 Reasons people leave Jane Street and what they do next 31:19 Advice for young people in a changing world 36:09 Navigating job insecurity in tech-driven roles 38:55 Where to live if you want to be successful 40:28 Raising kids for a rapidly changing future 42:55 Questions young people should ask themselves 44:45 Outro and book recommendation

EDGE REVEALED: How an Ex-Jane Street Trader Finds Edge in Markets & Life Agustin Lebron Agustin Lebron (former Jane Street trader, author of The Laws of Trading, now working at an AI startup applying reinforcement learning to market execution) breaks down what edge really means — and how to find yours in trading, careers & life. “Edge is something that either you know or you can do that the marginal participant in that market either doesn’t or can’t.” We cover: - What edge actually means & how Jane Street builds organizational edge (their worst skill is still "pretty decent") - Why you can never truly know if you have edge — the statistical vs intuitive approaches - The consolidation of quant trading: from dozens of options firms to a handful of giants - The gamblification of everything — retail trading, sports betting & prediction markets fueling quant profits - What it was like having Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) as a Jane Street intern: "Day one, I'm going to ask all the questions" - How to apply edge thinking to your own career: find what you're differentially good at - Raising teenagers in the AI age: why the traditional path still works, but other paths are opening up 00:00 Introduction 00:44 What is edge in financial markets 01:43 Jane Street and organizational structures for quant trading 03:46 Identifying and validating edge in trading 06:22 Navigating extreme market events and volatility 09:37 Future of quant trading and consolidation 12:15 Why quant firm profits have increased 14:42 The gamblization of everything 15:55 Who should pursue a career in quant trading 18:19 Applying the concept of edge to career and life decisions 20:56 Advice for interns to excel in quant trading 23:44 Predicting long-term success in trading interns 25:08 Sam Bankman-Fried as an intern and FTX reflections 28:15 Reasons people leave Jane Street and what they do next 31:19 Advice for young people in a changing world 36:09 Navigating job insecurity in tech-driven roles 38:55 Where to live if you want to be successful 40:28 Raising kids for a rapidly changing future 42:55 Questions young people should ask themselves 44:45 Outro and book recommendation

Ethan Kho

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btw, the Helius MCP isn’t just for docs, it’s a whole blockchain explorer in your terminal Some things you can ask: - What is this KoL holding and trading? - What is happening in this transaction? - What are the top holders of this token also trading? Test the MCP with complex multi-part questions that build on each other.

btw, the Helius MCP isn’t just for docs, it’s a whole blockchain explorer in your terminal Some things you can ask: - What is this KoL holding and trading? - What is happening in this transaction? - What are the top holders of this token also trading? Test the MCP with complex multi-part questions that build on each other.

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Qullamaggie on SMB Capital and Daytrading “Yeah, and I can tell you that the day trading is just most of the time a waste of time, like this SMB that prop firm. I mean, this was like a couple of years ago when I saw a video of their best trader who makes like 300k per year. And that’s a guy who’s been trading for like 20 years. If you’ve been trading for 20 years, you should make 300k a week, not per year. So, that’s another confirmation that day trading is just not gonna cut it if you want to make big money. You gotta swing and position trade.”

Qullamaggie on SMB Capital and Daytrading “Yeah, and I can tell you that the day trading is just most of the time a waste of time, like this SMB that prop firm. I mean, this was like a couple of years ago when I saw a video of their best trader who makes like 300k per year. And that’s a guy who’s been trading for like 20 years. If you’ve been trading for 20 years, you should make 300k a week, not per year. So, that’s another confirmation that day trading is just not gonna cut it if you want to make big money. You gotta swing and position trade.”

Lone

138,715 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

This guy built a trading bot with Claude and made $193,000 on Polymarket His bot trades the microstructure of short BTC Up / Down markets through limit orders and combines a hybrid of arbitrage, market making, and hedging His strategy is simple: > Enters a position when it sees mispricing > Then buys the opposite outcome, turning part of the trade into a paired arb > The base position is hedged with the pair, while the rest remains as a directional trade This guy’s Polymarket account: Using this strategy, he captures an average edge of 2-3% and repeats it hundreds of times Consistent micro edge + clean execution = lifechange

VALIX

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