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$MU $00060 $00530 $TSM Evolution of the AI Memory Hierarchy: HBM, DRAM, & SRAM Overview and Market Analysis The video outlines the strategic shift of modern computing toward a memory-centric architecture driven by the demands of generative AI. It explains that the industry is moving away from a traditional...

23,901 次观看 • 8 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Gavin Baker, CIO of Atreides Management made one of the most important and nuanced calls on memory stocks in recent months (Save this). His argument is that based on every memory cycle of the last 25 years, the setup today, prices elevated, sentiment high, supply ramping is textbook time to sell but he adds a critical exception. The one cycle in modern memory history where selling was catastrophically wrong was the mid-1990s, which Baker calls the last true capacity cycle in memory. In that cycle, demand was structurally exploding as the internet era required entirely new computing infrastructure to be built from scratch, and memory had to scale with it in a way that had never happened before. His point is that AI may be that same kind of cycle and not a normal boom bust but a once in a generation capacity buildout where the underlying demand is structural, not cyclical. The reason this argument holds weight is the fundamental shift in what memory is in the AI era. Traditional DRAM was a pure commodity, identical specs, interchangeable suppliers, price determined entirely by supply and demand swings. HBM is the opposite because it is custom engineered to fit a specific customer's chip, co-designed between the memory maker and the GPU designer, with SK Hynix's Vice President literally describing it as shifting from a commodity to a customer-tailored custom business. A single Blackwell Ultra GPU now requires up to 288GB of HBM3E, a 3.6x increase over the H100 and major suppliers like SK Hynix and Micron have already sold out their entire HBM production capacity through the end of the year. Because HBM requires advanced packaging processes like CoWoS that can't be spun up overnight, the bottleneck isn't just wafer capacity but rather runs across the entire manufacturing stack. Bank of America projects the global HBM market grows 58% this year alone to $54.6 billion, and Nomura expects the broader memory sector to nearly double to $445 billion. Long Micron!

Milk Road AI

260,701 次观看 • 2 个月前

The AI boom just hit a wall nobody saw coming. And it's not software. It's not regulation. It's not even energy... It's memory chips. Right now, Dell is raising PC prices by 30%. Intel can't ship chips. Nvidia is slashing GPU production by 40%. And almost nobody understands why. Here's the "hidden" crisis the AI industry is trying to hide: AI data centers are hoarding memory. Not GPUs. Not processors. MEMORY. Every AI server needs massive amounts of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) to run those models everyone's hyping. One problem: There are only 3 companies in the world that can make it. Samsung. SK Hynix. Micron. That's it. And all 3 just diverted their entire production capacity away from normal RAM to feed AI data centers. The math that breaks everything: 1 gigabyte of HBM takes 4X the manufacturing capacity of regular DRAM. AI will consume 20% of global DRAM production in 2026. But the thing is, consumer demand for RAM didn't disappear. PCs still need memory. Phones still need memory. Cars still need memory. But there's no capacity left to make it. The price explosion: RAM prices are up 246% in the last 6 months. DDR5 contract prices jumped 100% month-over-month in some cases. Dell's CFO said he's "never witnessed costs escalating at this pace." SK Hynix and Micron? Sold out through all of 2026. Micron straight up EXITED the consumer memory market entirely to focus on AI customers. If you're not building an AI data center, you're not getting memory chips. AI data centers pay 3-5X margins compared to consumer products. So memory manufacturers are rationally choosing: Serve Microsoft and Google's AI buildout, or serve Dell's laptop business? Easy choice. Every wafer allocated to an Nvidia H100 GPU is a wafer DENIED to your next laptop. It's a zero-sum game. And consumers are losing. The dangerous cascade effect: Nvidia is cutting RTX 50-series GPU production by 30-40% because they can't get GDDR7 memory. Dell, Lenovo, HP are all raising PC prices 15-30% in early 2026. Xiaomi and other smartphone makers are cutting shipment targets. Even Intel's crash last week? Partially driven by memory shortages limiting chip production. This is a PERMANENT reallocation of the world's silicon capacity. Not a temporary supply hiccup. For decades, consumer electronics (phones, PCs, laptops) drove memory production. Now? AI data centers are the priority customer. And that priority shift is reshaping the entire tech economy. The timeline Is worse than you think: Industry analysts project shortages lasting through 2027, maybe 2028. Why? Because building new memory fabs takes 3-5 YEARS. Micron's new Idaho fab won't meaningfully impact supply until 2028. Samsung and SK Hynix are too busy ramping up HBM4 production to expand consumer DRAM. So we're stuck. AI companies need memory to scale. But producing that memory DESTROYS the supply chain for everything else. My question here: Everyone's betting on AI scaling infinitely. But what if the AI boom STALLS because there's not enough memory to support it? What if we're not in an "AI supercycle" but a "memory shortage that kills the AI buildout"? Intel crashed 17% because they can't manufacture enough chips. The root cause though? Memory shortages limiting what they can even produce. Nvidia is cutting GPU production by 40%. AMD is struggling to get GDDR6 for Radeon cards. This isn't just a consumer problem. It's an AI infrastructure problem. And if memory doesn't scale, AI doesn't scale. The AI industry sold you on infinite scaling. But they forgot to mention the part where there's only 3 companies making the memory chips that power everything. And all 3 just chose AI data centers over you. Even Nvidia can't make enough GPUs to meet demand. Not because of energy. Not because of regulation... But because the memory supply chain is BROKEN. And it won't be fixed until 2028.

Ricardo

594,643 次观看 • 7 个月前

Jensen Huang just said the semiconductor industry needs to grow 5-10x over the next decade and he named the exact bottlenecks investors should be watching (Save this). His argument is that this isn't a normal cyclical boom that will bust like past chip cycles because it's driven by a structural shift, the world needs a whole new intelligence layer of infrastructure on top of energy, internet, and roads and that layer runs entirely on chips. Using WSTS's 2026 industry estimate of $1.5 trillion, a 5-10x expansion would put the semiconductor industry at roughly $7.5 trillion to $15 trillion within ten years. He specifically called out five areas that are already in shortage, memory, storage, optical interconnects, packaging, and TSMC foundry capacity, and said the whole industry is short because this is infrastructure demand, not seasonal demand. Here's who stands to benefit in each of those five bottlenecks he named. Memory and storage is the most direct beneficiary, since Micron is the only major US based DRAM and NAND producer and has been reporting surging prices tied to AI server demand while SK Hynix and Samsung, both foreign, dominate the high bandwidth memory that feeds directly into GPUs like Nvidia's. Optical interconnects benefits companies like Coherent and Lumentum which make the optical transceivers moving data between GPU clusters, alongside Credo Technology, which makes high speed interconnect chips for the same data movement problem inside AI clusters. Packaging is where Nvidia's own chips get bottlenecked, since advanced packaging capacity mostly sits with TSMC, but Amkor Technology and ASE Technology are the independent outsourced packaging players that pick up overflow demand when TSMC can't keep up. Chip equipment makers that supply the tools needed to actually build more capacity across all these bottlenecks also benefit, including ASML for lithography, and Lam Research, KLA Corporation and Applied Materials for etching, deposition, and inspection equipment, since a 5-10x industry expansion requires massive new fab buildout that all runs through these companies first. Milk Road Pro is tracking the entire supply chain bottlenecks, if you want our entire AI trades around this, you can come join us just for a dollar.

Milk Road AI

29,530 次观看 • 1 个月前

Elon Musk just described a project so large that most people will assume he is exaggerating (Save this). He is not. In the video, Musk lays out the central problem facing every AI company on earth, the entire global chip industry is on a path to produce roughly 100 gigawatts of AI compute per year. That sounds like a lot until you understand that his companies alone Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI will need orders of magnitude more than that. His answer is the TerraFab. It is a joint chip factory spanning 100 million square feet, ten times the size of Tesla's Gigafactory Texas announced in March 2026, with Grimes County, Texas commissioners approving the full scale facility site just last week. The goal is one full terawatt of AI compute output per year. For context, 1 terawatt is 1,000 gigawatts twice the current total electricity consumption of the United States. SpaceX has already committed an initial $55 billion to the prototype phase, with total investment estimates ranging into the trillions. Here is why this matters for Micron specifically. In the video, Musk named Nvidia's Rubin chips as the reference design for TerraFab's first orbital deployments, and said "You're going to need a lot of memory to go with that." A billion full radical equivalent chips per year, each requiring stacks of high bandwidth memory, that is the demand signal Micron just received from one of the most capital-intensive projects in human history. And Micron already cannot keep up with what exists today. Micron's entire 2026 HBM output is fully sold out contracted before the year began. HBM4 entered volume production ahead of schedule and sold out immediately. The structural reason Micron wins here is simple. Every AI chip ever built Nvidia H100s, Rubin chips, custom ASICs, TPUs is useless without high-bandwidth memory stacked directly on top of it. There are only three companies in the world that supply HBM at scale, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. Samsung has had quality issues, SK Hynix is supply constrained. Micron is the only US headquartered HBM manufacturer which matters enormously given CHIPS Act subsidies, domestic procurement requirements, and the political push to keep critical AI memory production on American soil. TerraFab just made the memory deficit permanently larger. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown of Micron and our entire AI thesis just for $1. Link below!

Milk Road AI

248,089 次观看 • 2 个月前

The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.

Fireside Alpha

38,370 次观看 • 2 个月前