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Ethereum is quietly setting up a possible move to $3,700–$4,200. This is the same post-QT pattern that played out last cycle. Meanwhile, so many are calling the Bitcoin 200-day rejection a bear market signal. Last time it happened in 2022, QT was just getting announced. 200 day resistance in...

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Dan Gambardello

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19,567 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Crypto is red today, but the chart that actually matters for altcoins is up & sitting at a multi‑year pivot. Others/BTC is pressing into the same setup we had post‑QT in 2019, right as PMI finally flips into expansion. This chart is getting squeezed right into a cycle shift. Intro 00:00 Macro theory summation 1:00 QT 1:30 PMI 2:40 Here’s where the cycle is 4:00 Copper/Gold breaking out 6:10 Altcoins vs. Bitcoin 7:45 Altcoins did this last time 9:30 Other macro indicators 12:30
16:04

Crypto is red today, but the chart that actually matters for altcoins is up & sitting at a multi‑year pivot. Others/BTC is pressing into the same setup we had post‑QT in 2019, right as PMI finally flips into expansion. This chart is getting squeezed right into a cycle shift. Intro 00:00 Macro theory summation 1:00 QT 1:30 PMI 2:40 Here’s where the cycle is 4:00 Copper/Gold breaking out 6:10 Altcoins vs. Bitcoin 7:45 Altcoins did this last time 9:30 Other macro indicators 12:30

Dan Gambardello

17,964 次观看 • 2 个月前

Here is why the bear market narrative is wrong, explained in 3 minutes. Intro 00:00 DXY 00:25 QT cycles 1:00 Business Cycle 1:30 Post QT dip 2:45 Just my opinion. Please try not to get worked up about it. And have a good day.
2:59

Here is why the bear market narrative is wrong, explained in 3 minutes. Intro 00:00 DXY 00:25 QT cycles 1:00 Business Cycle 1:30 Post QT dip 2:45 Just my opinion. Please try not to get worked up about it. And have a good day.

Dan Gambardello

30,757 次观看 • 7 个月前

The oversold conditions we're seeing right now on Bitcoin and Ethereum on the weekly and on the monthly are the same conditions that have marked every major bottom across every cycle. Every single one. After years of altcoins getting absolutely demolished, ETH/BTC is showing the exact same structure it showed in 2019 right after QT ended. And QT just ended in December. Is it different this time? Maybe... But I'm paying attention. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin bottom 1:30 BTC confirmation 3:20 ETH vs. BTC 6:10 ETH breakout and altcoins 9:50
13:46

The oversold conditions we're seeing right now on Bitcoin and Ethereum on the weekly and on the monthly are the same conditions that have marked every major bottom across every cycle. Every single one. After years of altcoins getting absolutely demolished, ETH/BTC is showing the exact same structure it showed in 2019 right after QT ended. And QT just ended in December. Is it different this time? Maybe... But I'm paying attention. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin bottom 1:30 BTC confirmation 3:20 ETH vs. BTC 6:10 ETH breakout and altcoins 9:50

Dan Gambardello

31,597 次观看 • 5 个月前

PMI just printed 52.6! Last time we were here was June 2022. But that was the beginning of QT and beginning of the bear. This time, we're at the END of QT and beginning of new business cycle. With a new Fed chair incoming. With inflation cratering below 1%. Crypto has never traded from this macro setup. Ever. While there is still reason to be cautious during post-QT normalization, the next 2 PMI prints will tell us a lot. Intro 00:00 PMI print and meaning 1:15 What is PMI? 3:00 FED and QE 8:45 Gold and crypto bull market 12:15 Altcoins oversold and PMI 13:30 Bitcoin indicator to watch 16:00
22:46

PMI just printed 52.6! Last time we were here was June 2022. But that was the beginning of QT and beginning of the bear. This time, we're at the END of QT and beginning of new business cycle. With a new Fed chair incoming. With inflation cratering below 1%. Crypto has never traded from this macro setup. Ever. While there is still reason to be cautious during post-QT normalization, the next 2 PMI prints will tell us a lot. Intro 00:00 PMI print and meaning 1:15 What is PMI? 3:00 FED and QE 8:45 Gold and crypto bull market 12:15 Altcoins oversold and PMI 13:30 Bitcoin indicator to watch 16:00

Dan Gambardello

56,982 次观看 • 6 个月前

ETH/BTC is doing something it's only done once before....in 2019, right after the QT dip was over and normalization phase ended. Same spot in the liquidity cycle and same setup. Last time it kicked off the crypto bull market and altcoin repricing. Here I discuss confirmation and invalidation areas to watch for this week. Intro 00:00 Big monthly eth indicators 00:50 Eth/Btc confirmation or invalidation 2:40 ETH usd 8:40 Altcoins 10:55
15:10

ETH/BTC is doing something it's only done once before....in 2019, right after the QT dip was over and normalization phase ended. Same spot in the liquidity cycle and same setup. Last time it kicked off the crypto bull market and altcoin repricing. Here I discuss confirmation and invalidation areas to watch for this week. Intro 00:00 Big monthly eth indicators 00:50 Eth/Btc confirmation or invalidation 2:40 ETH usd 8:40 Altcoins 10:55

Dan Gambardello

32,476 次观看 • 1 个月前

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30
15:55

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30

Dan Gambardello

26,873 次观看 • 1 个月前

It's a massive week with Kevin Warsh speaking for first time, as well as peace deal on the 19th. All while crypto forms a record setting bottom. 196 days post-QT, altcoins down -46% with no bull market yet. Last cycle at this point we were down -75%... The only difference is the length of QT we had to sit through. Business cycle turning, new Fed chair, CLARITY and GENIUS Acts, institutions onboarding. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin caution 1:20 S&P 500 and altcoins 5:40 Ethereum bottom 7:40
11:06

It's a massive week with Kevin Warsh speaking for first time, as well as peace deal on the 19th. All while crypto forms a record setting bottom. 196 days post-QT, altcoins down -46% with no bull market yet. Last cycle at this point we were down -75%... The only difference is the length of QT we had to sit through. Business cycle turning, new Fed chair, CLARITY and GENIUS Acts, institutions onboarding. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin caution 1:20 S&P 500 and altcoins 5:40 Ethereum bottom 7:40

Dan Gambardello

13,686 次观看 • 2 个月前

Altcoin RSI is entering the same oversold zone as 2018 and 2022 bottoms. QT just ended for only the second time ever. PMI is expanding for the first time in a year. This is not the time for blind crypto DCA. My team just launched our risk-based accumulation planner and it does awesome against regular DCA in backtesting. Intro 00:00 The current dip 00:40 Always know the macro backdrop 2:40 Risk based accumulator 4:10 How backtesting works #1 9:20 Bitcoin backtest #1 12:05 Bitcoin backtest #2 16:15 Ethereum backtest 18:40 Cardano backtest 21:40 Bringing data together 23:30
28:02

Altcoin RSI is entering the same oversold zone as 2018 and 2022 bottoms. QT just ended for only the second time ever. PMI is expanding for the first time in a year. This is not the time for blind crypto DCA. My team just launched our risk-based accumulation planner and it does awesome against regular DCA in backtesting. Intro 00:00 The current dip 00:40 Always know the macro backdrop 2:40 Risk based accumulator 4:10 How backtesting works #1 9:20 Bitcoin backtest #1 12:05 Bitcoin backtest #2 16:15 Ethereum backtest 18:40 Cardano backtest 21:40 Bringing data together 23:30

Dan Gambardello

26,005 次观看 • 6 个月前

7 years in the making: Ethereum is about to decide what happens next to altcoins. ETH/BTC is sitting at a trendline that's rejected Ethereum and altcoins for nearly a year. If it breaks, it could be the confirmation altcoin holders have been waiting for. If it fails, expect more downside volatility. I walk through why this may be the most important chart in crypto right now and how it ties into the business cycle, post-QT normalization, and even the Clarity Act. Intro 00:00 ETH/BTC and Clarity Act 2:30 Altcoin dips 5:10 Macro reversal 7:50 Watch ETH/BTC if Clarity passes 10:15 ETH risk 11:20 Eth price action short term 13:00
19:00

7 years in the making: Ethereum is about to decide what happens next to altcoins. ETH/BTC is sitting at a trendline that's rejected Ethereum and altcoins for nearly a year. If it breaks, it could be the confirmation altcoin holders have been waiting for. If it fails, expect more downside volatility. I walk through why this may be the most important chart in crypto right now and how it ties into the business cycle, post-QT normalization, and even the Clarity Act. Intro 00:00 ETH/BTC and Clarity Act 2:30 Altcoin dips 5:10 Macro reversal 7:50 Watch ETH/BTC if Clarity passes 10:15 ETH risk 11:20 Eth price action short term 13:00

Dan Gambardello

29,442 次观看 • 1 个月前

Bitcoin just flashed a signal it’s only shown once before, in the 2022 bottom At the same time, Saylor sold $2.5M BTC last week… then turned around and now bought $100M BTC And altcoin dominance has been quietly climbing for months. Everyone’s certain about the “October bottom”. I get it, it's fine. But it's a good idea to consider all possibilities... We’ve got: 1. Weekly RSI printing the same bullish divergence as the last major bottom 2. Copper/gold reversing with PMI expansion 3. Altcoin dominance following the same post‑QT pattern as 2019 4. Bitcoin sitting at the same oversold levels we only see at real cycle lows Could we still drop into Q4? Sure. But ignoring this data because it doesn’t fit the four‑year calendar is a mistake, and makes no sense from an analytical perspective. Consider all possibilities I’m not calling a bottom. I’m simply saying the setup is way more interesting than people think, and it deserves a real look! Intro 00:00 Saylor buys BTC 00:40 Bitcoin and the bottom 2:30 BTC bottom signal 3:00 Copper/gold 7:40 Altcoin dominance 9:55
13:43

Bitcoin just flashed a signal it’s only shown once before, in the 2022 bottom At the same time, Saylor sold $2.5M BTC last week… then turned around and now bought $100M BTC And altcoin dominance has been quietly climbing for months. Everyone’s certain about the “October bottom”. I get it, it's fine. But it's a good idea to consider all possibilities... We’ve got: 1. Weekly RSI printing the same bullish divergence as the last major bottom 2. Copper/gold reversing with PMI expansion 3. Altcoin dominance following the same post‑QT pattern as 2019 4. Bitcoin sitting at the same oversold levels we only see at real cycle lows Could we still drop into Q4? Sure. But ignoring this data because it doesn’t fit the four‑year calendar is a mistake, and makes no sense from an analytical perspective. Consider all possibilities I’m not calling a bottom. I’m simply saying the setup is way more interesting than people think, and it deserves a real look! Intro 00:00 Saylor buys BTC 00:40 Bitcoin and the bottom 2:30 BTC bottom signal 3:00 Copper/gold 7:40 Altcoin dominance 9:55

Dan Gambardello

30,451 次观看 • 2 个月前

ETH/BTC just made a trendline breakout that hasn't happened in over 6 years. It's the first real crack we've seen in a 5 year long altcoin bear market. Meanwhile USD pairs across the board are just about ready to breakout or lose all support for more downside. Intro 00:00 BTC bull 1price targets 1:45 BTC bear targets 3:45 Ethereum and altcoin caution 5:05 ETH/BTC cycle breakout 7:45
13:13

ETH/BTC just made a trendline breakout that hasn't happened in over 6 years. It's the first real crack we've seen in a 5 year long altcoin bear market. Meanwhile USD pairs across the board are just about ready to breakout or lose all support for more downside. Intro 00:00 BTC bull 1price targets 1:45 BTC bear targets 3:45 Ethereum and altcoin caution 5:05 ETH/BTC cycle breakout 7:45

Dan Gambardello

23,624 次观看 • 1 个月前

Many people are stuck looking at this terrible short term price action. Meanwhile, ETF demand is quietly outpacing new crypto supply. QT just ended. The business cycle looks like it's poised to start expanding. Institutions are positioning while a lot of people are convinced a new bear market just started. All while charts are oversold, not overbought. It's worth paying attention. Intro 00:00 Supply accelerates 00:55 Bull divergence 4:15 The cycle is about to turn 5:25 Here’s where we are 8:50
14:02

Many people are stuck looking at this terrible short term price action. Meanwhile, ETF demand is quietly outpacing new crypto supply. QT just ended. The business cycle looks like it's poised to start expanding. Institutions are positioning while a lot of people are convinced a new bear market just started. All while charts are oversold, not overbought. It's worth paying attention. Intro 00:00 Supply accelerates 00:55 Bull divergence 4:15 The cycle is about to turn 5:25 Here’s where we are 8:50

Dan Gambardello

39,441 次观看 • 8 个月前

The Russell 2000 is breaking out of a multi-year range right as QT ends and the PMI approaches expansion territory. This is the same setup that preceded every major risk-on rotation going back decades. Small caps lead. Then crypto follows. But there's one thing I can't stop thinking about. Last cycle, we had this exact setup in late 2019. QT ended. PMI was turning. Russell starting to move. The ingredients were there. Then March 2020 happened... I'm not saying a black swan is going to happen. But I can't stop thinking about how it happened last cycle right at this moment. Either way...whether we get a clean business cycle expansion or something forces even more aggressive policy response, the macro is pointing the same direction. Intro 00:00 Russell 2000 meaning 00:30 Here’s the move we wait for 2:15 itrustcapital 5:00 The crypto concern 5:35
11:01

The Russell 2000 is breaking out of a multi-year range right as QT ends and the PMI approaches expansion territory. This is the same setup that preceded every major risk-on rotation going back decades. Small caps lead. Then crypto follows. But there's one thing I can't stop thinking about. Last cycle, we had this exact setup in late 2019. QT ended. PMI was turning. Russell starting to move. The ingredients were there. Then March 2020 happened... I'm not saying a black swan is going to happen. But I can't stop thinking about how it happened last cycle right at this moment. Either way...whether we get a clean business cycle expansion or something forces even more aggressive policy response, the macro is pointing the same direction. Intro 00:00 Russell 2000 meaning 00:30 Here’s the move we wait for 2:15 itrustcapital 5:00 The crypto concern 5:35

Dan Gambardello

51,808 次观看 • 7 个月前

As we sit here at record high fear, I just want to say... Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com is one of my favorite people in crypto In every bear crypto cycle, it was always easy to spot contrarian, high conviction bulls. This cycle is different. There really seem to be only a handful. As every cycle goes, it's unpopular to remain bullish in high fear, but it only takes one move for the entire plan to pay off. One move.... Intro 00:00 Compelling bottom 2:00 Crypto risk is low 3:00 Maybe the bottom is not in…5:30 Tom Lee buying Ethereum 7:00
11:57

As we sit here at record high fear, I just want to say... Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com is one of my favorite people in crypto In every bear crypto cycle, it was always easy to spot contrarian, high conviction bulls. This cycle is different. There really seem to be only a handful. As every cycle goes, it's unpopular to remain bullish in high fear, but it only takes one move for the entire plan to pay off. One move.... Intro 00:00 Compelling bottom 2:00 Crypto risk is low 3:00 Maybe the bottom is not in…5:30 Tom Lee buying Ethereum 7:00

Dan Gambardello

16,538 次观看 • 2 个月前

Ethereum’s “mini crypto winter” might finally be ending as Bitmine continues to stack ETH like crazy. The structure looks almost identical to past reversals, though nothing is yet confirmed as ETH trades in the middle of pattern. I'm waiting to see confirmation areas discussed below. And Bitcoin is back at the same confluence that often shows up before big moves. BTC is also waiting for bull or bear confirmations. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin rejected 1:20 Bull conformation 4:15 Watch these areas 5:00 Ethereum mini crypto winter 6:30 ETH reversal structure 8:00 Ethereum downside target 9:10 ETH bull moves 10:25
14:01

Ethereum’s “mini crypto winter” might finally be ending as Bitmine continues to stack ETH like crazy. The structure looks almost identical to past reversals, though nothing is yet confirmed as ETH trades in the middle of pattern. I'm waiting to see confirmation areas discussed below. And Bitcoin is back at the same confluence that often shows up before big moves. BTC is also waiting for bull or bear confirmations. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin rejected 1:20 Bull conformation 4:15 Watch these areas 5:00 Ethereum mini crypto winter 6:30 ETH reversal structure 8:00 Ethereum downside target 9:10 ETH bull moves 10:25

Dan Gambardello

18,521 次观看 • 4 个月前

the bottom line is that crypto is lagging and once the macroeconomic conditions that have driven every other bull cycle line up, there is an extremely strong possibility crypto will catch up, very fast. the frustration of it this cycle is how long it's all been contracted, but... it's not because crypto has failed. it's not because altcoins are useless it's not because crypto has lost narrative to ai... it's the business cycle and liquidity making its way down risk curve. we might come to find that ultra contraction equals ultra repricing. Intro 00:00 Altcoins lagging 1:00 4 year cycle breaking 1:40 S&P 2:10 Altcoins vs. S&P 4:00 Ethereum 6:40 Dogecoin 7:30 Cardano 10:10 Chanlink point 11:40 Something to consider 13:45
16:57

the bottom line is that crypto is lagging and once the macroeconomic conditions that have driven every other bull cycle line up, there is an extremely strong possibility crypto will catch up, very fast. the frustration of it this cycle is how long it's all been contracted, but... it's not because crypto has failed. it's not because altcoins are useless it's not because crypto has lost narrative to ai... it's the business cycle and liquidity making its way down risk curve. we might come to find that ultra contraction equals ultra repricing. Intro 00:00 Altcoins lagging 1:00 4 year cycle breaking 1:40 S&P 2:10 Altcoins vs. S&P 4:00 Ethereum 6:40 Dogecoin 7:30 Cardano 10:10 Chanlink point 11:40 Something to consider 13:45

Dan Gambardello

14,847 次观看 • 3 个月前

Altcoins have gone five years without a bull market and this is their last chance. If the economy expands from here and altcoins still don't move, then the people saying altcoins are finished are probably right. But if business cycle expansion does drive crypto bull markets, it's a very good idea to be ready. Intro 00:00 The 3rd altcoin cycle 00:30 Major Ethereum reversal 1:15 SUI setup 7:55 Cardano 10:50 Last chance for altcoins 14:15
19:50

Altcoins have gone five years without a bull market and this is their last chance. If the economy expands from here and altcoins still don't move, then the people saying altcoins are finished are probably right. But if business cycle expansion does drive crypto bull markets, it's a very good idea to be ready. Intro 00:00 The 3rd altcoin cycle 00:30 Major Ethereum reversal 1:15 SUI setup 7:55 Cardano 10:50 Last chance for altcoins 14:15

Dan Gambardello

67,210 次观看 • 28 天前

Gold is up around 70% in last year and crypto has done nothing. And somehow this is the most bullish chart we've seen since last cycle. Not because anyone is being blindly bullish. But because we've seen this exact thing play out before, and we just have to look back at what it leads to. Last cycle...QT drains $673B. Fed pivots. Gold runs to ATHs while Bitcoin does nothing. Everyone thought it's gameover for crypto. Then crypto explodes out of no where. Well now, we just finished a $2.43 TRILLION drain. The largest ever. Gold isn't leaving Bitcoin behind, but it is creating the setup for a bitcoin and crypto bull move. One that we've seen before. Intro 00:00 This happened before 1:20 The tariff playbook 2:10 Liquidity injections 4:25 Gold vs. crypto 6:15
10:30

Gold is up around 70% in last year and crypto has done nothing. And somehow this is the most bullish chart we've seen since last cycle. Not because anyone is being blindly bullish. But because we've seen this exact thing play out before, and we just have to look back at what it leads to. Last cycle...QT drains $673B. Fed pivots. Gold runs to ATHs while Bitcoin does nothing. Everyone thought it's gameover for crypto. Then crypto explodes out of no where. Well now, we just finished a $2.43 TRILLION drain. The largest ever. Gold isn't leaving Bitcoin behind, but it is creating the setup for a bitcoin and crypto bull move. One that we've seen before. Intro 00:00 This happened before 1:20 The tariff playbook 2:10 Liquidity injections 4:25 Gold vs. crypto 6:15

Dan Gambardello

62,328 次观看 • 7 个月前

Everybody is sharing the same Bitcoin chart right now... "200-week moving average broke. Here comes another June 2022." But I think that comparison is missing something important. Why are we not also talking about the bullish divergence on the weekly RSI that happened in December 2022 (not June)? Or the fact that altcoins actually bottomed before Bitcoin in 2022? Every cycle looks different. Cherry-picking one fractal from one cycle doesn't tell the whole story. I continue to think no one knows for sure, but one thing seems clear; we are in opportunity zone. And I think most agree with that. Intro 00:00 Is every cycle the same? 2:00 Bullish divergence 3:00 Monthly chart clues 4:50 Total market cap 6:45 Altcoin bottom 11:20
12:42

Everybody is sharing the same Bitcoin chart right now... "200-week moving average broke. Here comes another June 2022." But I think that comparison is missing something important. Why are we not also talking about the bullish divergence on the weekly RSI that happened in December 2022 (not June)? Or the fact that altcoins actually bottomed before Bitcoin in 2022? Every cycle looks different. Cherry-picking one fractal from one cycle doesn't tell the whole story. I continue to think no one knows for sure, but one thing seems clear; we are in opportunity zone. And I think most agree with that. Intro 00:00 Is every cycle the same? 2:00 Bullish divergence 3:00 Monthly chart clues 4:50 Total market cap 6:45 Altcoin bottom 11:20

Dan Gambardello

32,752 次观看 • 2 个月前

If You Hold ALTCOINS, You NEED to See This PMI just came out TODAY and it printed lower at 47.9...after quantitative tightening officially ended. That’s the same post-QT lag we saw in 2019, right before liquidity turned. Altcoins move at the confluence of liquidity and business activity. This is the data point every crypto holder should pay attention to. In this video I explain exactly what this PMI print means for a crypto bull market. Intro 00:00 Exactly what the PMI data means 1:25 Could we expand sooner this cycle? 10:20 Altcoins vs. BTC 12:30 Dip or bear market? 14:20 Big CCV Intelligence update 17:40
18:43

If You Hold ALTCOINS, You NEED to See This PMI just came out TODAY and it printed lower at 47.9...after quantitative tightening officially ended. That’s the same post-QT lag we saw in 2019, right before liquidity turned. Altcoins move at the confluence of liquidity and business activity. This is the data point every crypto holder should pay attention to. In this video I explain exactly what this PMI print means for a crypto bull market. Intro 00:00 Exactly what the PMI data means 1:25 Could we expand sooner this cycle? 10:20 Altcoins vs. BTC 12:30 Dip or bear market? 14:20 Big CCV Intelligence update 17:40

Dan Gambardello

149,595 次观看 • 7 个月前