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It's a massive week with Kevin Warsh speaking for first time, as well as peace deal on the 19th. All while crypto forms a record setting bottom. 196 days post-QT, altcoins down -46% with no bull market yet. Last cycle at this point we were down -75%... The only... show more

Dan Gambardello

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13,686 views • 2 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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PMI just printed 52.6! Last time we were here was June 2022. But that was the beginning of QT and beginning of the bear. This time, we're at the END of QT and beginning of new business cycle. With a new Fed chair incoming. With inflation cratering below 1%. Crypto has never traded from this macro setup. Ever. While there is still reason to be cautious during post-QT normalization, the next 2 PMI prints will tell us a lot. Intro 00:00 PMI print and meaning 1:15 What is PMI? 3:00 FED and QE 8:45 Gold and crypto bull market 12:15 Altcoins oversold and PMI 13:30 Bitcoin indicator to watch 16:00

PMI just printed 52.6! Last time we were here was June 2022. But that was the beginning of QT and beginning of the bear. This time, we're at the END of QT and beginning of new business cycle. With a new Fed chair incoming. With inflation cratering below 1%. Crypto has never traded from this macro setup. Ever. While there is still reason to be cautious during post-QT normalization, the next 2 PMI prints will tell us a lot. Intro 00:00 PMI print and meaning 1:15 What is PMI? 3:00 FED and QE 8:45 Gold and crypto bull market 12:15 Altcoins oversold and PMI 13:30 Bitcoin indicator to watch 16:00

Dan Gambardello

56,982 views • 6 months ago

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30

The 4-year cycle says Bitcoin will bottom in October. Bitcoin priced in gold says it may have already bottomed...back above the 20-week MA, the same move that confirmed the 2018 and 2022 lows. Copper vs gold also bottomed. Russell 2000 at all-time highs. PMI expanding. QT over, and altcoin dominance trending up with the business cycle, the same sequence as last cycle. What if Bitcoin is mid-cycle, not late-cycle, and altcoins are getting ready to exit a 5-year bear market? Prepare for both scenarios. But the business cycle is the engine. Intro 00:00 The beginning 2:10 Bitcoin Gold bottom 3:00 Copper, Russell Business cycle 7:00 Altcoins and PMI 9:30

Dan Gambardello

26,873 views • 1 month ago

the bottom line is that crypto is lagging and once the macroeconomic conditions that have driven every other bull cycle line up, there is an extremely strong possibility crypto will catch up, very fast. the frustration of it this cycle is how long it's all been contracted, but... it's not because crypto has failed. it's not because altcoins are useless it's not because crypto has lost narrative to ai... it's the business cycle and liquidity making its way down risk curve. we might come to find that ultra contraction equals ultra repricing. Intro 00:00 Altcoins lagging 1:00 4 year cycle breaking 1:40 S&P 2:10 Altcoins vs. S&P 4:00 Ethereum 6:40 Dogecoin 7:30 Cardano 10:10 Chanlink point 11:40 Something to consider 13:45

the bottom line is that crypto is lagging and once the macroeconomic conditions that have driven every other bull cycle line up, there is an extremely strong possibility crypto will catch up, very fast. the frustration of it this cycle is how long it's all been contracted, but... it's not because crypto has failed. it's not because altcoins are useless it's not because crypto has lost narrative to ai... it's the business cycle and liquidity making its way down risk curve. we might come to find that ultra contraction equals ultra repricing. Intro 00:00 Altcoins lagging 1:00 4 year cycle breaking 1:40 S&P 2:10 Altcoins vs. S&P 4:00 Ethereum 6:40 Dogecoin 7:30 Cardano 10:10 Chanlink point 11:40 Something to consider 13:45

Dan Gambardello

14,847 views • 3 months ago

Crypto is red today, but the chart that actually matters for altcoins is up & sitting at a multi‑year pivot. Others/BTC is pressing into the same setup we had post‑QT in 2019, right as PMI finally flips into expansion. This chart is getting squeezed right into a cycle shift. Intro 00:00 Macro theory summation 1:00 QT 1:30 PMI 2:40 Here’s where the cycle is 4:00 Copper/Gold breaking out 6:10 Altcoins vs. Bitcoin 7:45 Altcoins did this last time 9:30 Other macro indicators 12:30

Crypto is red today, but the chart that actually matters for altcoins is up & sitting at a multi‑year pivot. Others/BTC is pressing into the same setup we had post‑QT in 2019, right as PMI finally flips into expansion. This chart is getting squeezed right into a cycle shift. Intro 00:00 Macro theory summation 1:00 QT 1:30 PMI 2:40 Here’s where the cycle is 4:00 Copper/Gold breaking out 6:10 Altcoins vs. Bitcoin 7:45 Altcoins did this last time 9:30 Other macro indicators 12:30

Dan Gambardello

17,964 views • 2 months ago

Ethereum is quietly setting up a possible move to $3,700–$4,200. This is the same post-QT pattern that played out last cycle. Meanwhile, so many are calling the Bitcoin 200-day rejection a bear market signal. Last time it happened in 2022, QT was just getting announced. 200 day resistance in 2018 we were in the middle of first ever QT. This time, QT just ENDED in December. It's an opposite macro environment, so we should consider other explanations at the very least. It's unpopular to consider that crypto doesn't look as bad as it seems, but here you go anyway! Upside and downside discussed here. Intro 00:00 BTC 200 day resistance 1:10 This is not 2022 2:00 4 year cycles 3:55 What's going on with altcoins? 5:00 Eth altcoin analysis 6:30 Ethereum price target 10:00

Ethereum is quietly setting up a possible move to $3,700–$4,200. This is the same post-QT pattern that played out last cycle. Meanwhile, so many are calling the Bitcoin 200-day rejection a bear market signal. Last time it happened in 2022, QT was just getting announced. 200 day resistance in 2018 we were in the middle of first ever QT. This time, QT just ENDED in December. It's an opposite macro environment, so we should consider other explanations at the very least. It's unpopular to consider that crypto doesn't look as bad as it seems, but here you go anyway! Upside and downside discussed here. Intro 00:00 BTC 200 day resistance 1:10 This is not 2022 2:00 4 year cycles 3:55 What's going on with altcoins? 5:00 Eth altcoin analysis 6:30 Ethereum price target 10:00

Dan Gambardello

19,567 views • 3 months ago

Altcoins have gone five years without a bull market and this is their last chance. If the economy expands from here and altcoins still don't move, then the people saying altcoins are finished are probably right. But if business cycle expansion does drive crypto bull markets, it's a very good idea to be ready. Intro 00:00 The 3rd altcoin cycle 00:30 Major Ethereum reversal 1:15 SUI setup 7:55 Cardano 10:50 Last chance for altcoins 14:15

Altcoins have gone five years without a bull market and this is their last chance. If the economy expands from here and altcoins still don't move, then the people saying altcoins are finished are probably right. But if business cycle expansion does drive crypto bull markets, it's a very good idea to be ready. Intro 00:00 The 3rd altcoin cycle 00:30 Major Ethereum reversal 1:15 SUI setup 7:55 Cardano 10:50 Last chance for altcoins 14:15

Dan Gambardello

67,210 views • 27 days ago

If You Hold ALTCOINS, You NEED to See This PMI just came out TODAY and it printed lower at 47.9...after quantitative tightening officially ended. That’s the same post-QT lag we saw in 2019, right before liquidity turned. Altcoins move at the confluence of liquidity and business activity. This is the data point every crypto holder should pay attention to. In this video I explain exactly what this PMI print means for a crypto bull market. Intro 00:00 Exactly what the PMI data means 1:25 Could we expand sooner this cycle? 10:20 Altcoins vs. BTC 12:30 Dip or bear market? 14:20 Big CCV Intelligence update 17:40

If You Hold ALTCOINS, You NEED to See This PMI just came out TODAY and it printed lower at 47.9...after quantitative tightening officially ended. That’s the same post-QT lag we saw in 2019, right before liquidity turned. Altcoins move at the confluence of liquidity and business activity. This is the data point every crypto holder should pay attention to. In this video I explain exactly what this PMI print means for a crypto bull market. Intro 00:00 Exactly what the PMI data means 1:25 Could we expand sooner this cycle? 10:20 Altcoins vs. BTC 12:30 Dip or bear market? 14:20 Big CCV Intelligence update 17:40

Dan Gambardello

149,595 views • 7 months ago

Benjamin Cowen CRASHED My Live Stream...Then Dropped A CRYPTO BOMBSHELL Dramatic titles aside, with all the tension in crypto, price crashing, and people pointing fingers, it was a blessing to sit down with and talk about crypto. Here is the full chat. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin record oversold 3:45 Sentiment & Divergence 5:30 PMI and Business Cycle 8:45 Halfway through bear or at end? 19:45 Post QT dip 24:30 When bottom? 27:00 Price targets 30:05 The crypto space 39:20

Benjamin Cowen CRASHED My Live Stream...Then Dropped A CRYPTO BOMBSHELL Dramatic titles aside, with all the tension in crypto, price crashing, and people pointing fingers, it was a blessing to sit down with and talk about crypto. Here is the full chat. Intro 00:00 Bitcoin record oversold 3:45 Sentiment & Divergence 5:30 PMI and Business Cycle 8:45 Halfway through bear or at end? 19:45 Post QT dip 24:30 When bottom? 27:00 Price targets 30:05 The crypto space 39:20

Dan Gambardello

77,274 views • 6 months ago

5 red monthly candles on ETH and altcoins falling nonstop. But after years, PMI regional data is pointing toward expansion. The business cycle that has correlated with every crypto bull and bear is shifting. The last two times crypto looked like this on the macro, it was the bottom. I could be wrong and if I am I'll say it. But the data right now doesn't say bear market starting. It says bear market ending. ISM prints tomorrow morning... Intro 00:00 ISM PMI about to turn 00:50 Bitcoin bear vs. bull 2:50 Ethereum 7:30 Altcoins 13:25

5 red monthly candles on ETH and altcoins falling nonstop. But after years, PMI regional data is pointing toward expansion. The business cycle that has correlated with every crypto bull and bear is shifting. The last two times crypto looked like this on the macro, it was the bottom. I could be wrong and if I am I'll say it. But the data right now doesn't say bear market starting. It says bear market ending. ISM prints tomorrow morning... Intro 00:00 ISM PMI about to turn 00:50 Bitcoin bear vs. bull 2:50 Ethereum 7:30 Altcoins 13:25

Dan Gambardello

65,274 views • 6 months ago

ETH/BTC is doing something it's only done once before....in 2019, right after the QT dip was over and normalization phase ended. Same spot in the liquidity cycle and same setup. Last time it kicked off the crypto bull market and altcoin repricing. Here I discuss confirmation and invalidation areas to watch for this week. Intro 00:00 Big monthly eth indicators 00:50 Eth/Btc confirmation or invalidation 2:40 ETH usd 8:40 Altcoins 10:55

ETH/BTC is doing something it's only done once before....in 2019, right after the QT dip was over and normalization phase ended. Same spot in the liquidity cycle and same setup. Last time it kicked off the crypto bull market and altcoin repricing. Here I discuss confirmation and invalidation areas to watch for this week. Intro 00:00 Big monthly eth indicators 00:50 Eth/Btc confirmation or invalidation 2:40 ETH usd 8:40 Altcoins 10:55

Dan Gambardello

32,476 views • 1 month ago

Many people are stuck looking at this terrible short term price action. Meanwhile, ETF demand is quietly outpacing new crypto supply. QT just ended. The business cycle looks like it's poised to start expanding. Institutions are positioning while a lot of people are convinced a new bear market just started. All while charts are oversold, not overbought. It's worth paying attention. Intro 00:00 Supply accelerates 00:55 Bull divergence 4:15 The cycle is about to turn 5:25 Here’s where we are 8:50

Many people are stuck looking at this terrible short term price action. Meanwhile, ETF demand is quietly outpacing new crypto supply. QT just ended. The business cycle looks like it's poised to start expanding. Institutions are positioning while a lot of people are convinced a new bear market just started. All while charts are oversold, not overbought. It's worth paying attention. Intro 00:00 Supply accelerates 00:55 Bull divergence 4:15 The cycle is about to turn 5:25 Here’s where we are 8:50

Dan Gambardello

39,441 views • 8 months ago

Crypto is finally moving! But it's too early to be celebrating green candles. Bitcoin, Ethereum, SUI, and Cardano are all approaching levels that could define the rest of this cycle as the business cycle officially begins expanding. The opportunity is becoming clearer... But don't confuse one green weekend with confirmation. The bull reversal takes time and often patience. Intro 00:00 The bottom vs. the opportunity 00:25 Eth enters new cycle 1:15 Sui is opportunity 4:35 Ada confirmation 6:50

Crypto is finally moving! But it's too early to be celebrating green candles. Bitcoin, Ethereum, SUI, and Cardano are all approaching levels that could define the rest of this cycle as the business cycle officially begins expanding. The opportunity is becoming clearer... But don't confuse one green weekend with confirmation. The bull reversal takes time and often patience. Intro 00:00 The bottom vs. the opportunity 00:25 Eth enters new cycle 1:15 Sui is opportunity 4:35 Ada confirmation 6:50

Dan Gambardello

38,993 views • 1 month ago

Altcoins have been through one of the longest periods of economic suppression in decades. Crypto survived all of this. QT, macro tightening, economic slowdown, and altcoins are still here. So the question is simple: What happens if the economy actually starts expanding again? The PMI / business cycle indicator has been compressed for years…literally record levels of consolidation going back to the 1940s. And historically, when this moves back into expansion, altcoins have very strong bull markets. No guarantees of course. *Thanks to Sui Foundation for sponsoring this video! Intro 00:00 Crypto survived this 00:30 Grateful for your support 1:30 Economic boom 3:15 $ADA 4:40 $SUI 8:30

Altcoins have been through one of the longest periods of economic suppression in decades. Crypto survived all of this. QT, macro tightening, economic slowdown, and altcoins are still here. So the question is simple: What happens if the economy actually starts expanding again? The PMI / business cycle indicator has been compressed for years…literally record levels of consolidation going back to the 1940s. And historically, when this moves back into expansion, altcoins have very strong bull markets. No guarantees of course. *Thanks to Sui Foundation for sponsoring this video! Intro 00:00 Crypto survived this 00:30 Grateful for your support 1:30 Economic boom 3:15 $ADA 4:40 $SUI 8:30

Dan Gambardello

23,452 views • 5 months ago

As we sit here at record high fear, I just want to say... Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com is one of my favorite people in crypto In every bear crypto cycle, it was always easy to spot contrarian, high conviction bulls. This cycle is different. There really seem to be only a handful. As every cycle goes, it's unpopular to remain bullish in high fear, but it only takes one move for the entire plan to pay off. One move.... Intro 00:00 Compelling bottom 2:00 Crypto risk is low 3:00 Maybe the bottom is not in…5:30 Tom Lee buying Ethereum 7:00

As we sit here at record high fear, I just want to say... Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com is one of my favorite people in crypto In every bear crypto cycle, it was always easy to spot contrarian, high conviction bulls. This cycle is different. There really seem to be only a handful. As every cycle goes, it's unpopular to remain bullish in high fear, but it only takes one move for the entire plan to pay off. One move.... Intro 00:00 Compelling bottom 2:00 Crypto risk is low 3:00 Maybe the bottom is not in…5:30 Tom Lee buying Ethereum 7:00

Dan Gambardello

16,538 views • 2 months ago

EDIT: MASSIVE BREAKOUT! Bitcoin has been sideways for two months now and seller exhaustion on-chain is at record lows. Then you look at altcoins. The 20 week just fell below the 200 week. Last two times that happened were 2019 and 2023 bottoms. Post QT normalization, PMI turning, bottom indicators. Combos that haven't happened since 2019. Nothing's confirmed and I'm watching to see if Bitcoin can take $67K. (IT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST DID) Intro BTC sellers exhausted Bitcoin structure Why a breakout would be massive Ethereum has no choice Altcoin bottom indicator

EDIT: MASSIVE BREAKOUT! Bitcoin has been sideways for two months now and seller exhaustion on-chain is at record lows. Then you look at altcoins. The 20 week just fell below the 200 week. Last two times that happened were 2019 and 2023 bottoms. Post QT normalization, PMI turning, bottom indicators. Combos that haven't happened since 2019. Nothing's confirmed and I'm watching to see if Bitcoin can take $67K. (IT LOOKS LIKE IT JUST DID) Intro BTC sellers exhausted Bitcoin structure Why a breakout would be massive Ethereum has no choice Altcoin bottom indicator

Dan Gambardello

27,017 views • 10 days ago

7 years in the making: Ethereum is about to decide what happens next to altcoins. ETH/BTC is sitting at a trendline that's rejected Ethereum and altcoins for nearly a year. If it breaks, it could be the confirmation altcoin holders have been waiting for. If it fails, expect more downside volatility. I walk through why this may be the most important chart in crypto right now and how it ties into the business cycle, post-QT normalization, and even the Clarity Act. Intro 00:00 ETH/BTC and Clarity Act 2:30 Altcoin dips 5:10 Macro reversal 7:50 Watch ETH/BTC if Clarity passes 10:15 ETH risk 11:20 Eth price action short term 13:00

7 years in the making: Ethereum is about to decide what happens next to altcoins. ETH/BTC is sitting at a trendline that's rejected Ethereum and altcoins for nearly a year. If it breaks, it could be the confirmation altcoin holders have been waiting for. If it fails, expect more downside volatility. I walk through why this may be the most important chart in crypto right now and how it ties into the business cycle, post-QT normalization, and even the Clarity Act. Intro 00:00 ETH/BTC and Clarity Act 2:30 Altcoin dips 5:10 Macro reversal 7:50 Watch ETH/BTC if Clarity passes 10:15 ETH risk 11:20 Eth price action short term 13:00

Dan Gambardello

29,442 views • 1 month ago

Crypto is looking so good right now. A new Fed-Treasury accord, $3T in sideline capital waiting on the Clarity Act, and altcoins sitting at bear market lows right before an economic expansion. Projects like Cardano and Sui have never looked so good. Thankful to be here with you! Intro 00:00 Watch the FED now! 2:10 Bottom of bear 4:40 How not bullish? 6:15 Clarity Act 8:00 Crypto cycle changing 11:30 Cardano 12:50 Sui 17:25 Risk models 20:45

Crypto is looking so good right now. A new Fed-Treasury accord, $3T in sideline capital waiting on the Clarity Act, and altcoins sitting at bear market lows right before an economic expansion. Projects like Cardano and Sui have never looked so good. Thankful to be here with you! Intro 00:00 Watch the FED now! 2:10 Bottom of bear 4:40 How not bullish? 6:15 Clarity Act 8:00 Crypto cycle changing 11:30 Cardano 12:50 Sui 17:25 Risk models 20:45

Dan Gambardello

24,381 views • 6 months ago

Bitcoin just flashed a signal it’s only shown once before, in the 2022 bottom At the same time, Saylor sold $2.5M BTC last week… then turned around and now bought $100M BTC And altcoin dominance has been quietly climbing for months. Everyone’s certain about the “October bottom”. I get it, it's fine. But it's a good idea to consider all possibilities... We’ve got: 1. Weekly RSI printing the same bullish divergence as the last major bottom 2. Copper/gold reversing with PMI expansion 3. Altcoin dominance following the same post‑QT pattern as 2019 4. Bitcoin sitting at the same oversold levels we only see at real cycle lows Could we still drop into Q4? Sure. But ignoring this data because it doesn’t fit the four‑year calendar is a mistake, and makes no sense from an analytical perspective. Consider all possibilities I’m not calling a bottom. I’m simply saying the setup is way more interesting than people think, and it deserves a real look! Intro 00:00 Saylor buys BTC 00:40 Bitcoin and the bottom 2:30 BTC bottom signal 3:00 Copper/gold 7:40 Altcoin dominance 9:55

Bitcoin just flashed a signal it’s only shown once before, in the 2022 bottom At the same time, Saylor sold $2.5M BTC last week… then turned around and now bought $100M BTC And altcoin dominance has been quietly climbing for months. Everyone’s certain about the “October bottom”. I get it, it's fine. But it's a good idea to consider all possibilities... We’ve got: 1. Weekly RSI printing the same bullish divergence as the last major bottom 2. Copper/gold reversing with PMI expansion 3. Altcoin dominance following the same post‑QT pattern as 2019 4. Bitcoin sitting at the same oversold levels we only see at real cycle lows Could we still drop into Q4? Sure. But ignoring this data because it doesn’t fit the four‑year calendar is a mistake, and makes no sense from an analytical perspective. Consider all possibilities I’m not calling a bottom. I’m simply saying the setup is way more interesting than people think, and it deserves a real look! Intro 00:00 Saylor buys BTC 00:40 Bitcoin and the bottom 2:30 BTC bottom signal 3:00 Copper/gold 7:40 Altcoin dominance 9:55

Dan Gambardello

30,451 views • 2 months ago

Crypto is at lowest valuation since the last bitcoin bear market. The crypto market looks absolutely terrible right now. But I remain focused on the unemotional aspect of the cycle: 1. Bitcoin fair value: $158K (trading at $76K)...Lowest valuation since early 2023 2. PMI preparing for cycle expansion 3. Weekly RSI approaching levels only seen at MAJOR cycle bottoms 4. BTC dominance consolidating for 8 months What's the difference between now and previous oversold moments? This isn't the beginning of a bear market, it's the end of one. In my opinion. Intro 00:00 Crypto is undervalued 00:30 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 2:10 Crytpo in bear market oversold territory 5:30

Crypto is at lowest valuation since the last bitcoin bear market. The crypto market looks absolutely terrible right now. But I remain focused on the unemotional aspect of the cycle: 1. Bitcoin fair value: $158K (trading at $76K)...Lowest valuation since early 2023 2. PMI preparing for cycle expansion 3. Weekly RSI approaching levels only seen at MAJOR cycle bottoms 4. BTC dominance consolidating for 8 months What's the difference between now and previous oversold moments? This isn't the beginning of a bear market, it's the end of one. In my opinion. Intro 00:00 Crypto is undervalued 00:30 Bitcoin vs. altcoins 2:10 Crytpo in bear market oversold territory 5:30

Dan Gambardello

81,399 views • 6 months ago

The rate cut isn’t the real story today. Everyone is staring at the Fed short term headlines which ultimately do not matter…meanwhile the actual macro signals are flashing. The Russell 2000 is breaking into all-time-high territory. That’s the chart that maps directly to business activity, PMI expansion, and liquidity rotations. And every time this happens near the end of a tightening cycle, it leads into a full-on altcoin expansion cycle. Add in a transitioning Fed, a pro-growth policy shift coming in 2026, QT ending, and Ethereum pressing a multi-year breakout…and the setup is epic. If you’re an altcoin holder, this is the moment to pay attention. Intro 00:00 The real FED news to watch 1:40 Russell 2000 4:55 Altcoins 7:20 Ethereum 9:05

The rate cut isn’t the real story today. Everyone is staring at the Fed short term headlines which ultimately do not matter…meanwhile the actual macro signals are flashing. The Russell 2000 is breaking into all-time-high territory. That’s the chart that maps directly to business activity, PMI expansion, and liquidity rotations. And every time this happens near the end of a tightening cycle, it leads into a full-on altcoin expansion cycle. Add in a transitioning Fed, a pro-growth policy shift coming in 2026, QT ending, and Ethereum pressing a multi-year breakout…and the setup is epic. If you’re an altcoin holder, this is the moment to pay attention. Intro 00:00 The real FED news to watch 1:40 Russell 2000 4:55 Altcoins 7:20 Ethereum 9:05

Dan Gambardello

65,156 views • 8 months ago