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🚨🇱🇧🇮🇱 Even if a sweeping regional ceasefire is secured, the absolute silence on whether Israel will actually pull its forces out of Lebanon remains a dangerous wildcard. Middle East expert Trita Parsi highlights that any temporary peace could fall apart instantly if localized border clashes are treated as immediate...

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Mario Nawfal

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76,989 просмотров • 1 месяц назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇱🇱🇧 Netanyahu's entire Washington play reportedly hinges on one swap, getting the Israel-Lebanon agreement prioritized ahead of the MoU. Quincy Institute EVP and Middle East Analyst Trita Parsi says it's a major blow that could allegedly collapse the MoU altogether. The kicker, per Parsi: a "disarm Hezbollah first" standoff, or outright civil war, is the exact pressure point that makes the whole thing unravel. Trita Parsi
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🇮🇱🇱🇧 Netanyahu's entire Washington play reportedly hinges on one swap, getting the Israel-Lebanon agreement prioritized ahead of the MoU. Quincy Institute EVP and Middle East Analyst Trita Parsi says it's a major blow that could allegedly collapse the MoU altogether. The kicker, per Parsi: a "disarm Hezbollah first" standoff, or outright civil war, is the exact pressure point that makes the whole thing unravel. Trita Parsi

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🚨 🇮🇷 WAR AS SANCTIONS RELIEF Expert writer Trita Parsi points out a paradox: the war has actually provided Iran with de facto sanctions relief. Iran is exporting more oil at nearly triple the pre-war price due to the conflict, according to Parsi. Trita argues that because of this, Iran will view significant, formal sanctions relief as a non-negotiable term for peace. Trita Parsi
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🚨 🇮🇷 WAR AS SANCTIONS RELIEF Expert writer Trita Parsi points out a paradox: the war has actually provided Iran with de facto sanctions relief. Iran is exporting more oil at nearly triple the pre-war price due to the conflict, according to Parsi. Trita argues that because of this, Iran will view significant, formal sanctions relief as a non-negotiable term for peace. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 The White House is quietly laying down a hard red line, warning Israel that their era of completely unrestricted military campaigns is officially over. Trita Parsi reveals that behind-the-scenes pressure from the Trump administration is forcing Netanyahu’s hand, despite public pushback from his domestic opposition. Trita suspects the US will continue turning the screws because saving this regional ceasefire deal has become more important than Israel for Washington. "At the end of this, they will be completely out of Lebanon or there won't be a deal between U.S. and Iran." Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 The White House is quietly laying down a hard red line, warning Israel that their era of completely unrestricted military campaigns is officially over. Trita Parsi reveals that behind-the-scenes pressure from the Trump administration is forcing Netanyahu’s hand, despite public pushback from his domestic opposition. Trita suspects the US will continue turning the screws because saving this regional ceasefire deal has become more important than Israel for Washington. "At the end of this, they will be completely out of Lebanon or there won't be a deal between U.S. and Iran." Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 THE U.S. AND IRAN DISAGREE ON WHAT THE CEASEFIRE COVERS Middle East geopolitical analyst, Trita Parsi, says that's Netanyahu building his own off-ramp. If the threat is gone, the war can stop without admitting defeat. But he's also excluding Lebanon from the ceasefire and escalating against Hezbollah. The White House agreed. Iran and Pakistan say Lebanon is included. Parsi says Iran will push this specifically to answer one question: can Trump actually control Israel? Friday in Islamabad may give us the answer. Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 THE U.S. AND IRAN DISAGREE ON WHAT THE CEASEFIRE COVERS Middle East geopolitical analyst, Trita Parsi, says that's Netanyahu building his own off-ramp. If the threat is gone, the war can stop without admitting defeat. But he's also excluding Lebanon from the ceasefire and escalating against Hezbollah. The White House agreed. Iran and Pakistan say Lebanon is included. Parsi says Iran will push this specifically to answer one question: can Trump actually control Israel? Friday in Islamabad may give us the answer. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 High-stakes chicken in the Persian Gulf is pushing the region closer to a dangerous red line. Political analyst Trita Parsi warns that the U.S. strategy of tightening blockades is continually backfiring, driving Iran to counter-escalate rather than back down. While Trump is privately demanding an immediate deal, Israel’s ongoing presence in Lebanon remains a massive sabotage risk that could dismantle months of delicate diplomacy. Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 High-stakes chicken in the Persian Gulf is pushing the region closer to a dangerous red line. Political analyst Trita Parsi warns that the U.S. strategy of tightening blockades is continually backfiring, driving Iran to counter-escalate rather than back down. While Trump is privately demanding an immediate deal, Israel’s ongoing presence in Lebanon remains a massive sabotage risk that could dismantle months of delicate diplomacy. Trita Parsi

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 “Their sense is that they are close.” Iran expert Trita Parsi says U.S. officials told him they believe Washington and Tehran are nearing a deal, despite recent tensions over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Parsi said Iran views continued Israeli strikes as a serious red line and is using the issue to test whether President Trump is willing, or able, to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu. “If Trump is unwilling or incapable of holding the Israelis back, then what is the value of a deal with the United States?” Trita Parsi | Ryan Grim | Maysa Mustafa
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🇮🇷🇺🇸 “Their sense is that they are close.” Iran expert Trita Parsi says U.S. officials told him they believe Washington and Tehran are nearing a deal, despite recent tensions over Israeli attacks on Lebanon. Parsi said Iran views continued Israeli strikes as a serious red line and is using the issue to test whether President Trump is willing, or able, to restrain Benjamin Netanyahu. “If Trump is unwilling or incapable of holding the Israelis back, then what is the value of a deal with the United States?” Trita Parsi | Ryan Grim | Maysa Mustafa

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🇮🇷 TRITA PARSI: “THE PALESTINIAN STATE NEEDS TO BE ESTABLISHED” Parsi says optimism over Trump’s Middle East deal reflects hopes that U.S. pressure on Israel will finally lead to ending the genocide. Trita Parsi: "My initial reaction is that it is extremely, extremely positive if this can hold. If it translates to not just an end to the genocide but actually a deal that settles the root cause of these conflicts. Which is the fact that the Israeli occupation has been continuing for decades. The Palestinian state needs to be established. Everyone in the region wants to continue to encourage Trump."
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🇮🇷 TRITA PARSI: “THE PALESTINIAN STATE NEEDS TO BE ESTABLISHED” Parsi says optimism over Trump’s Middle East deal reflects hopes that U.S. pressure on Israel will finally lead to ending the genocide. Trita Parsi: "My initial reaction is that it is extremely, extremely positive if this can hold. If it translates to not just an end to the genocide but actually a deal that settles the root cause of these conflicts. Which is the fact that the Israeli occupation has been continuing for decades. The Palestinian state needs to be established. Everyone in the region wants to continue to encourage Trump."

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🇮🇷🇱🇧 If Israel remains inside southern Lebanon, Trita Parsi argues a lasting regional ceasefire may be impossible. He says Iran's priority isn't simply strengthening Hezbollah, but also securing a ceasefire that holds across the region. As long as Israeli forces remain in Lebanon, armed resistance will continue, risking a collapse of any broader agreement. He also notes that some areas in southern Lebanon have significant military value for Hezbollah, making an Israeli withdrawal important not just politically, but strategically. "The priority is a ceasefire that is region-wide and stops the fighting everywhere." Trita Parsi
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🇮🇷🇱🇧 If Israel remains inside southern Lebanon, Trita Parsi argues a lasting regional ceasefire may be impossible. He says Iran's priority isn't simply strengthening Hezbollah, but also securing a ceasefire that holds across the region. As long as Israeli forces remain in Lebanon, armed resistance will continue, risking a collapse of any broader agreement. He also notes that some areas in southern Lebanon have significant military value for Hezbollah, making an Israeli withdrawal important not just politically, but strategically. "The priority is a ceasefire that is region-wide and stops the fighting everywhere." Trita Parsi

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🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel is in a full-on panic as new tactical directives force their military to stop shooting first in southern Lebanon. Trita Parsi notes that these self-defense limitations are a massive paradigm shift, signaling Washington’s formal acceptance of Iranian influence in the region. Trita argues the days of unlimited maneuverability are gone, which is exactly why Israeli leadership is having an absolute meltdown behind the scenes. Trita Parsi
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🚨🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel is in a full-on panic as new tactical directives force their military to stop shooting first in southern Lebanon. Trita Parsi notes that these self-defense limitations are a massive paradigm shift, signaling Washington’s formal acceptance of Iranian influence in the region. Trita argues the days of unlimited maneuverability are gone, which is exactly why Israeli leadership is having an absolute meltdown behind the scenes. Trita Parsi

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Dr. Trita Parsi (Trita Parsi) | Middle East Expert | Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: US & Israeli objectives are diverging. Trump wants out - he has other priorities. Israel would be happy with a forever war, with the US permanently bombarding Iran. The US has already kept Israel somewhat outside the negotiations - recognizing Israel will play spoiler & try to sabotage any diplomacy. But a full break between the US & Israel will not come until there is a deal. Trump will not pay the political cost of breaking with Israel unless he has a deal in hand.
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Dr. Trita Parsi (Trita Parsi) | Middle East Expert | Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: US & Israeli objectives are diverging. Trump wants out - he has other priorities. Israel would be happy with a forever war, with the US permanently bombarding Iran. The US has already kept Israel somewhat outside the negotiations - recognizing Israel will play spoiler & try to sabotage any diplomacy. But a full break between the US & Israel will not come until there is a deal. Trump will not pay the political cost of breaking with Israel unless he has a deal in hand.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran told Washington it would strike hard if Israel didn't hold back in Lebanon, and the U.S. watched Iran deliver on its promise. Trita Parsi explained why Trump called Netanyahu out and didn't even try to hide it. This was a historically rare moment of foreign policy pressure on Israel. "Trump forced Netanyahu to apologize to the emir of Qatar. The only other example I could find of that was when Obama forced him to apologize to Erdogan." Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Iran told Washington it would strike hard if Israel didn't hold back in Lebanon, and the U.S. watched Iran deliver on its promise. Trita Parsi explained why Trump called Netanyahu out and didn't even try to hide it. This was a historically rare moment of foreign policy pressure on Israel. "Trump forced Netanyahu to apologize to the emir of Qatar. The only other example I could find of that was when Obama forced him to apologize to Erdogan." Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has carried out thousands of strikes on the UAE since the war began, and it calls that letting it off the hook. Trita Parsi talked about how the war is aggravating tensions in the Middle East while Israel capitalizes on the chaos to bring max pain to Iran. "There could very well be scenarios where they will try to sabotage the talks." Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran has carried out thousands of strikes on the UAE since the war began, and it calls that letting it off the hook. Trita Parsi talked about how the war is aggravating tensions in the Middle East while Israel capitalizes on the chaos to bring max pain to Iran. "There could very well be scenarios where they will try to sabotage the talks." Trita Parsi

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🚨🇦🇪 The secret backchannel diplomacy shaping the Gulf's security architecture proves that financial pragmatism is quickly overriding ideological rivalries. International relations specialist Trita Parsi claims that the UAE has allegedly agreed to release billions in frozen assets to Tehran as part of a quiet deal to guarantee a complete halt to incoming drone and missile threats. Parsi notes that Abu Dhabi has a long history of playing both sides of the fence, effectively insulating itself from broader regional escalations while others bleed out. Trita Parsi
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🚨🇦🇪 The secret backchannel diplomacy shaping the Gulf's security architecture proves that financial pragmatism is quickly overriding ideological rivalries. International relations specialist Trita Parsi claims that the UAE has allegedly agreed to release billions in frozen assets to Tehran as part of a quiet deal to guarantee a complete halt to incoming drone and missile threats. Parsi notes that Abu Dhabi has a long history of playing both sides of the fence, effectively insulating itself from broader regional escalations while others bleed out. Trita Parsi

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Dr. Trita Parsi (Trita Parsi) | Middle East Expert | Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: A US-Iran deal can work despite Israeli sabotage - because it did before during Obama. Obama faced the same sabotage & still got a deal. Trump then walked out under Israeli pressure. A deal requires firm stance - isolating Israel from negotiation, shoring up support in Washington & derailing its sabotage. Trump's colorful phone calls & aggressive quotes to the media are not enough. Real measures are needed. That includes temporarily removing Israel's ability to restart the war, so it understands there will be consequences for undermining US negotiations. It will be a very costly & bitter fight. But it is absolutely possible.
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Dr. Trita Parsi (Trita Parsi) | Middle East Expert | Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft: A US-Iran deal can work despite Israeli sabotage - because it did before during Obama. Obama faced the same sabotage & still got a deal. Trump then walked out under Israeli pressure. A deal requires firm stance - isolating Israel from negotiation, shoring up support in Washington & derailing its sabotage. Trump's colorful phone calls & aggressive quotes to the media are not enough. Real measures are needed. That includes temporarily removing Israel's ability to restart the war, so it understands there will be consequences for undermining US negotiations. It will be a very costly & bitter fight. But it is absolutely possible.

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi
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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇸🇦 A completely new regional security architecture is emerging as Gulf states aggressively move to reduce their strategic dependency on the United States. Trita Parsi argues that breaking away from the American security umbrella will hand these nations unprecedented diplomatic maneuverability. Trita believes this shift could end up radically altering the balance of power, giving Arab governments the independent leverage needed to finally force real movement on the Palestinian issue. Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇸🇦 A completely new regional security architecture is emerging as Gulf states aggressively move to reduce their strategic dependency on the United States. Trita Parsi argues that breaking away from the American security umbrella will hand these nations unprecedented diplomatic maneuverability. Trita believes this shift could end up radically altering the balance of power, giving Arab governments the independent leverage needed to finally force real movement on the Palestinian issue. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 The U.S. is done taking orders from Israel, and Trump's next move could topple Netanyahu. International relations specialist Trita Parsi sees a major paradigm shift unfolding in US-Israel relations, with Washington starting to reassert itself as the superpower in the relationship. He thinks it's highly likely Trump endorses a political rival to Netanyahu if his ceasefire demands keep getting brushed off. And with Vance reminding Tel Aviv exactly who holds the real leverage, Parsi says the two sides' diametrically opposed interests are barreling toward a clash that looks more inevitable by the day. Trita Parsi
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🇺🇸 🇮🇱 The U.S. is done taking orders from Israel, and Trump's next move could topple Netanyahu. International relations specialist Trita Parsi sees a major paradigm shift unfolding in US-Israel relations, with Washington starting to reassert itself as the superpower in the relationship. He thinks it's highly likely Trump endorses a political rival to Netanyahu if his ceasefire demands keep getting brushed off. And with Vance reminding Tel Aviv exactly who holds the real leverage, Parsi says the two sides' diametrically opposed interests are barreling toward a clash that looks more inevitable by the day. Trita Parsi

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🇮🇷🇮🇱 TRITA PARSI: “ISRAEL CANNOT START A WAR WITH IRAN WITHOUT U.S. INVOLVEMENT” Parsi says Israel’s ability to escalate against Iran is limited without U.S. backing, and that Washington’s role should shift from enabling conflict to helping build an inclusive regional peace framework. Trita Parsi: "The Israelis cannot commit that type of a war against Iran without American involvement. The U.S. provides so much of the defense of Israel against Iranian missiles that it needs to be put in place before the war, not after. If this peace deal succeeds, the administration should move forward with a larger peace agreement that would include Iran and essentially everyone."
4:21

🇮🇷🇮🇱 TRITA PARSI: “ISRAEL CANNOT START A WAR WITH IRAN WITHOUT U.S. INVOLVEMENT” Parsi says Israel’s ability to escalate against Iran is limited without U.S. backing, and that Washington’s role should shift from enabling conflict to helping build an inclusive regional peace framework. Trita Parsi: "The Israelis cannot commit that type of a war against Iran without American involvement. The U.S. provides so much of the defense of Israel against Iranian missiles that it needs to be put in place before the war, not after. If this peace deal succeeds, the administration should move forward with a larger peace agreement that would include Iran and essentially everyone."

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 The sudden flurry of matching statements from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad reveals a massive coordinated pushback against rogue media narratives. Foreign policy analyst Trita Parsi notes that hardline factions on both sides are deliberately inflating terms in the press to sabotage the impending peace agreement before it can even be signed. While some leaked clauses look highly suspicious, Parsi points out that the sheer amount of diplomatic damage control confirms an official deal is closer than ever. Trita Parsi
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷🇵🇰 The sudden flurry of matching statements from Washington, Tehran, and Islamabad reveals a massive coordinated pushback against rogue media narratives. Foreign policy analyst Trita Parsi notes that hardline factions on both sides are deliberately inflating terms in the press to sabotage the impending peace agreement before it can even be signed. While some leaked clauses look highly suspicious, Parsi points out that the sheer amount of diplomatic damage control confirms an official deal is closer than ever. Trita Parsi

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🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Netanyahu may need the Lebanon war to survive, and Trump just found the move to end his career. Trita Parsi lays out why Lebanon won't settle down easily. Netanyahu's political survival, he says, may hinge on keeping that conflict burning, even as Washington insiders work behind the scenes to tank Trump's diplomatic memorandum and shield Israel. But Parsi says Trump holds a devastating counter. He could threaten to throw his weight behind Israeli opposition figures, some of whom are allegedly already in backdoor talks with Trump's inner circle, and end Netanyahu's political career outright. Trita Parsi
2:26

🇮🇱 🇱🇧 Netanyahu may need the Lebanon war to survive, and Trump just found the move to end his career. Trita Parsi lays out why Lebanon won't settle down easily. Netanyahu's political survival, he says, may hinge on keeping that conflict burning, even as Washington insiders work behind the scenes to tank Trump's diplomatic memorandum and shield Israel. But Parsi says Trump holds a devastating counter. He could threaten to throw his weight behind Israeli opposition figures, some of whom are allegedly already in backdoor talks with Trump's inner circle, and end Netanyahu's political career outright. Trita Parsi

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