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"Even if AI progress totally stalls, it's sufficiently easy to collect data on all these different white collar job tasks that we should expect to see them automated within the next 5 years."

Dwarkesh Patel

131,123 subscribers

547,193 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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10 Comments

Dan Shipper 📧1 year ago

If the upshot of this take is that white collar workers are all getting automated I highly doubt that. “If we can get the right data” is actually a HUGE if…there’s a reason why smart college grads take 10 years to become experts in their field… Some data only becomes available for collection once every few years.

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anton1 year ago

taking this in the limit means decisive strategic advantage is available with models we already have today

Peter Fuller1 year ago

I think they've thought deeply about AI, but not about white collar work

sidereal 🍀🇺🇦 🇺🇸1 year ago

White collar work will be automated but the current models could never do it and the claim that they could is completely delusional. They cant plan and execute on long horizon tasks, doesn't matter what data you train them with.

lambda1 year ago

This just seems flat out wrong and naive. There's a huge amount of constraints to even highly functional automation (e.g. manual tasks that could be coded, but are too niche to be worth the r&d).

Tsukuyomi1 year ago

so, even if AI takes a breather, it’s still got white collar jobs in its sights. 5 years? that’s like a blink for a machine. hope you’ve got a plan b.

Avi1 year ago

White collar jobs are cooked

nobody.1 year ago

Automating people’s livelihoods and being so public and brazenly nonchalant about it. This should end well

Beezy1 year ago

I think 90% of menu jobs is automatable. But for now, we still need a human to carry the ball over the finish line for most reasonable work product.

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