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Every shortage is followed by a glut. Eggs exploded and now they are down 99%. Oil hit $120 two months ago and is trading at $73 today. Jared Dillian Jared Dillian tells Christopher Vecchio, CFA the same thing is coming for chips. Nvidia has had pricing power because of... show more

tastylive

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Elon Musk: "We'll have the chip shortage now, voltage transformer shortage in a year, followed by electricity shortage." Elon said this two years ago, and we are now seeing it play out. Transformer lead times have stretched from weeks to 1-2 years, so grid connection wait times have also jumped to years. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are predicting a power shortage by 2028. Energy is the AI trade now. $TLN $CEG $ET $SEI $DY $BE $MTZ $PWR $MTZ

Elon Musk: "We'll have the chip shortage now, voltage transformer shortage in a year, followed by electricity shortage." Elon said this two years ago, and we are now seeing it play out. Transformer lead times have stretched from weeks to 1-2 years, so grid connection wait times have also jumped to years. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are predicting a power shortage by 2028. Energy is the AI trade now. $TLN $CEG $ET $SEI $DY $BE $MTZ $PWR $MTZ

Oguz Erkan

589,782 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Baier: But, you are importing a number of eggs to meet the shortage. There is 328% for the month. Almost 450% importing more than a year ago. Obviously some of that from Turkey and Mexico is hit by a tariff

Baier: But, you are importing a number of eggs to meet the shortage. There is 328% for the month. Almost 450% importing more than a year ago. Obviously some of that from Turkey and Mexico is hit by a tariff

Acyn

931,902 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,266 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

$Power is 5-7% of data center revenues. Some geothermal and nuclear stocks are trading at 50-70x earnings to supply it. Jim Chanos on iConnections: the AI halo has reached its furthest extension into alternative energy. The bull case is that data centers need power and there's a shortage. Chanos's counter: the US doesn't have a power shortage. It has a permitting bottleneck and turbine delivery delays. Both resolve in 2-3 years. When the permitting clears, the scarcity narrative collapses. And even if these companies win a power contract - power is 5-7% of a data center's revenues. Companies at 30-40x EBITDA for potentially supplying a fraction of a 5-7% cost line are priced for a constraint that is transient. Full breakdown of the alternative energy overhang: Source: iConnections -$

Power is 5-7% of data center revenues. Some geothermal and nuclear stocks are trading at 50-70x earnings to supply it. Jim Chanos on iConnections: the AI halo has reached its furthest extension into alternative energy. The bull case is that data centers need power and there's a shortage. Chanos's counter: the US doesn't have a power shortage. It has a permitting bottleneck and turbine delivery delays. Both resolve in 2-3 years. When the permitting clears, the scarcity narrative collapses. And even if these companies win a power contract - power is 5-7% of a data center's revenues. Companies at 30-40x EBITDA for potentially supplying a fraction of a 5-7% cost line are priced for a constraint that is transient. Full breakdown of the alternative energy overhang: Source: iConnections -

Podcast Alpha

75,076 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 SPACEX BUYERS ARE ABOUT TO GET WIPED OUT Right now, buyers are trading on only 4% of total supply. The other 96% is sitting behind a lockup agreement. That changes on August 6. Q2 earnings drop. 20% of insider shares unlock instantly. Then every 2 weeks after that, another chunk hits the market. By September, insiders can dump 44% of all shares. The float goes from 4% to nearly 10x almost overnight. Think about what that means: For every 1 share trading today, 10 more are about to show up. Facebook did this in 2012. IPO at $38. Lockups expired. Supply showed up. Buyers ran out. Six months later, it was trading at $18. Not because Facebook was dead. Because the market got flooded with shares. $SPCX is the same movie. Just on a much bigger screen. My target: $74-85 before year-end. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again. That’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

🚨 SPACEX BUYERS ARE ABOUT TO GET WIPED OUT Right now, buyers are trading on only 4% of total supply. The other 96% is sitting behind a lockup agreement. That changes on August 6. Q2 earnings drop. 20% of insider shares unlock instantly. Then every 2 weeks after that, another chunk hits the market. By September, insiders can dump 44% of all shares. The float goes from 4% to nearly 10x almost overnight. Think about what that means: For every 1 share trading today, 10 more are about to show up. Facebook did this in 2012. IPO at $38. Lockups expired. Supply showed up. Buyers ran out. Six months later, it was trading at $18. Not because Facebook was dead. Because the market got flooded with shares. $SPCX is the same movie. Just on a much bigger screen. My target: $74-85 before year-end. Keep in mind: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for over 10 YEARS. I was one of the only people who called the top in October, and I’ll do it again. That’s literally my job. If you still haven’t followed me, you’ll regret it.

DANNY

57,313 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The futures market is trading as if peace is days away, but even if a deal is signed tomorrow, we are six months from any normalization of the oil supply. Stephen Schork says the globe has lost a billion barrels of oil since the blockade began. The tanker market is screaming shortage while futures traders react to Trump tweets. Those are two completely different realities. Declogging the Persian Gulf takes until end of year at best. Stephen Schork Azi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The futures market is trading as if peace is days away, but even if a deal is signed tomorrow, we are six months from any normalization of the oil supply. Stephen Schork says the globe has lost a billion barrels of oil since the blockade began. The tanker market is screaming shortage while futures traders react to Trump tweets. Those are two completely different realities. Declogging the Persian Gulf takes until end of year at best. Stephen Schork Azi

Mario Nawfal

135,867 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Everyone thinks the oil story is simple: not enough supply, that's why prices are high. But look at the futures curve right now. It's flattening into contango, and not down the road, right at the front. August. September. That is the market pricing in too much oil, today, not in some far off normalization. Here is the part that should stop you. If supply hasn't fully come back, and the curve is still saying there's a glut, the math only works one way. Demand is falling faster than supply is recovering. This was never a supply story. It's a demand story wearing a supply costume.

Everyone thinks the oil story is simple: not enough supply, that's why prices are high. But look at the futures curve right now. It's flattening into contango, and not down the road, right at the front. August. September. That is the market pricing in too much oil, today, not in some far off normalization. Here is the part that should stop you. If supply hasn't fully come back, and the curve is still saying there's a glut, the math only works one way. Demand is falling faster than supply is recovering. This was never a supply story. It's a demand story wearing a supply costume.

Jeffrey P. Snider

24,348 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT AN OIL + DOLLAR SHORTAGE The nightmare scenario nobody is talking about right now is what happens if the Dollar skyrockets at the same time as oil. Since the world's oil supply is purchased in Dollars, they are typically inversely correlated. A lower Dollar = increased international demand for oil. The only time we've seen a brief period of oil 🔼 Dollar 🔼 was in 2022, during the economic slowdown. The nightmare scenario we're facing is a global oil supply shortage at the same time as an economic crisis. Both of these compound the demand for Dollars because not only are nations forced to liquidate greater assets to purchase oil, but servicing sovereign debt becomes much more expensive because it's denominated in Dollars. This energy crisis could very well be the beginning of Brent Johnson's Santiago Capital Dollar Milkshake Theory and the United States' plan to take a large portion of its debt out of circulation.

THE NIGHTMARE SCENARIO NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT AN OIL + DOLLAR SHORTAGE The nightmare scenario nobody is talking about right now is what happens if the Dollar skyrockets at the same time as oil. Since the world's oil supply is purchased in Dollars, they are typically inversely correlated. A lower Dollar = increased international demand for oil. The only time we've seen a brief period of oil 🔼 Dollar 🔼 was in 2022, during the economic slowdown. The nightmare scenario we're facing is a global oil supply shortage at the same time as an economic crisis. Both of these compound the demand for Dollars because not only are nations forced to liquidate greater assets to purchase oil, but servicing sovereign debt becomes much more expensive because it's denominated in Dollars. This energy crisis could very well be the beginning of Brent Johnson's Santiago Capital Dollar Milkshake Theory and the United States' plan to take a large portion of its debt out of circulation.

Financelot

2,310,574 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Everyone was calling for 200 dollar oil. Traders, money managers, all in on the same trade. Then the futures curve went flat in the space of two weeks. Not because supply got fixed. Supply is still nowhere near normalized. A flat curve after a supply shock is not supposed to happen unless something else is going on. That something else is demand disappearing faster than the shortage itself. Which means the oil market just quietly started pricing in the same weakness showing up in payrolls, labor force participation, and real incomes. The Fed does not set this signal. The curve does. And right now it is saying the slowdown is already here.

Jeffrey P. Snider

30,004 Aufrufe • vor 19 Tagen

THIS BUBBLE IS WORSE THAN 2000 If you have money in the stock market, read this carefully. The market is climbing while liquidity gets pulled out underneath it. Now look at valuations. Shiller CAPE: 42.05. The only time it was higher was 1999, right before the dot-com crash. Buffett Indicator: 229.9%. In 2000, it was 146%. That means today’s market is 1.6x higher than the dot-com peak by that metric. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is not guessing. He is reading the same math. Now concentration. Top 10 stocks control 41% of the S&P 500. They generate only 32% of profits. In 2000, top concentration was 23%. This is not a diversified index anymore. It is a crowded bet on a handful of companies, and most of them are tied to the same AI story. Now add leverage. Margin debt hit $1.28T. That is 4.1% of GDP. In 2000, it was 2.7%. Investors are borrowing more to buy stocks than they did at the dot-com peak. And the reversal may have already started. Margin debt peaked in January 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. The S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled before the market? 2000. 2007. Every time, the market followed. Now look at AI. In 2000, telecom companies spent billions building fiber for “the internet future.” Capex hit 4.5% of GDP. Today, hyperscalers are spending on data centers for “the AI future.” Tech capex is 4.4% of GDP. Almost the same number. Back then, Lucent and Nortel helped finance customers who bought their equipment. Today, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. In 2000, the bubble was internet infrastructure. In 2026, it is AI infrastructure. The companies are bigger now. The spending is bigger. The index concentration is worse. The leverage is higher. And the market is priced like the returns are already guaranteed. That is the danger. If one major earnings report shows AI spending is not paying off, the repricing starts. And with 41% of the index sitting in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. That’s why I’m watching this situation very closely right now. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

THIS BUBBLE IS WORSE THAN 2000 If you have money in the stock market, read this carefully. The market is climbing while liquidity gets pulled out underneath it. Now look at valuations. Shiller CAPE: 42.05. The only time it was higher was 1999, right before the dot-com crash. Buffett Indicator: 229.9%. In 2000, it was 146%. That means today’s market is 1.6x higher than the dot-com peak by that metric. Buffett is sitting on $325B in cash and selling stocks. He is not guessing. He is reading the same math. Now concentration. Top 10 stocks control 41% of the S&P 500. They generate only 32% of profits. In 2000, top concentration was 23%. This is not a diversified index anymore. It is a crowded bet on a handful of companies, and most of them are tied to the same AI story. Now add leverage. Margin debt hit $1.28T. That is 4.1% of GDP. In 2000, it was 2.7%. Investors are borrowing more to buy stocks than they did at the dot-com peak. And the reversal may have already started. Margin debt peaked in January 2026 and dropped 4.5% in two months. The S&P dropped 5.9% in the same window. Last time margin debt rolled before the market? 2000. 2007. Every time, the market followed. Now look at AI. In 2000, telecom companies spent billions building fiber for “the internet future.” Capex hit 4.5% of GDP. Today, hyperscalers are spending on data centers for “the AI future.” Tech capex is 4.4% of GDP. Almost the same number. Back then, Lucent and Nortel helped finance customers who bought their equipment. Today, Nvidia invests in companies that buy Nvidia chips. Same loop. Different label. In 2000, the bubble was internet infrastructure. In 2026, it is AI infrastructure. The companies are bigger now. The spending is bigger. The index concentration is worse. The leverage is higher. And the market is priced like the returns are already guaranteed. That is the danger. If one major earnings report shows AI spending is not paying off, the repricing starts. And with 41% of the index sitting in the same trade, there is nowhere clean to hide. That’s why I’m watching this situation very closely right now. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

Nonzee

83,631 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The most dangerous thing a company can do right now is rent intelligence from the same place as its competitors (Save this). You cannot rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor as Chamath Palihapitiya points out. If every company in an industry is feeding their workflows into the same frontier model, they are all converging on the same outputs, the same decisions, the same product improvements. The model becomes the equalizer and everyone pays a premium to become more mediocre. This is happening exactly as Chamath predicted, and the evidence is now concrete. Anthropic and OpenAI have established what analysts are now openly calling an emerging model layer duopoly. Anthropic crossed $45 billion ARR in may 2026, more than tripling from $9 billion at the end of 2025, OpenAI was at roughly $24 to $33 billion ARR at the same time. Together, the two companies combined could hit $160 to $240 billion ARR by end of 2026 and Anthropic and OpenAI now control 88% of enterprise LLM spend. That concentration is the structural problem Chamath is pointing at. And Anthropic isn't just winning on merit because it's actively lobbying for regulatory outcomes that would make that duopoly permanent. Dario Amodei has explicitly framed open source models as unsafe, pushing a safety agenda that, if enshrined in regulation, would effectively make it illegal for enterprises to use the cheaper, private, sovereign alternatives locking them into a closed model dependency by government decree rather than by choice. So you have market forces producing a duopoly, and potential regulatory capture moving to enforce it from the top down. This is exactly why the Nvidia Palantir partnership is not just a product announcement but rather a strategic counter to that duopoly. The logic is straightforward from both sides because If you're Palantir, sitting at the application layer, the last thing you want is to be permanently beholden to Anthropic or OpenAI for the intelligence that powers your product. You want competitive model options, sovereignty and be able to tell enterprise customers they can run AI on their own infrastructure with their own data without any of it touching a frontier lab's servers. If you're Nvidia, sitting at the chip layer, an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly is an existential concentration risk. Right now, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and dozens of other companies buy Nvidia's hardware. If the model layer consolidates into two players, both of which are building their own chips Nvidia faces a monopsony where its best customers are building the tools to displace it. A healthy open source ecosystem where thousands of enterprises train, fine tune, and deploy their own models is Nvidia's ideal market structure. More buyers, more diversity, more demand, less pricing leverage from any single customer.

The most dangerous thing a company can do right now is rent intelligence from the same place as its competitors (Save this). You cannot rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor as Chamath Palihapitiya points out. If every company in an industry is feeding their workflows into the same frontier model, they are all converging on the same outputs, the same decisions, the same product improvements. The model becomes the equalizer and everyone pays a premium to become more mediocre. This is happening exactly as Chamath predicted, and the evidence is now concrete. Anthropic and OpenAI have established what analysts are now openly calling an emerging model layer duopoly. Anthropic crossed $45 billion ARR in may 2026, more than tripling from $9 billion at the end of 2025, OpenAI was at roughly $24 to $33 billion ARR at the same time. Together, the two companies combined could hit $160 to $240 billion ARR by end of 2026 and Anthropic and OpenAI now control 88% of enterprise LLM spend. That concentration is the structural problem Chamath is pointing at. And Anthropic isn't just winning on merit because it's actively lobbying for regulatory outcomes that would make that duopoly permanent. Dario Amodei has explicitly framed open source models as unsafe, pushing a safety agenda that, if enshrined in regulation, would effectively make it illegal for enterprises to use the cheaper, private, sovereign alternatives locking them into a closed model dependency by government decree rather than by choice. So you have market forces producing a duopoly, and potential regulatory capture moving to enforce it from the top down. This is exactly why the Nvidia Palantir partnership is not just a product announcement but rather a strategic counter to that duopoly. The logic is straightforward from both sides because If you're Palantir, sitting at the application layer, the last thing you want is to be permanently beholden to Anthropic or OpenAI for the intelligence that powers your product. You want competitive model options, sovereignty and be able to tell enterprise customers they can run AI on their own infrastructure with their own data without any of it touching a frontier lab's servers. If you're Nvidia, sitting at the chip layer, an Anthropic-OpenAI duopoly is an existential concentration risk. Right now, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and dozens of other companies buy Nvidia's hardware. If the model layer consolidates into two players, both of which are building their own chips Nvidia faces a monopsony where its best customers are building the tools to displace it. A healthy open source ecosystem where thousands of enterprises train, fine tune, and deploy their own models is Nvidia's ideal market structure. More buyers, more diversity, more demand, less pricing leverage from any single customer.

Milk Road AI

34,385 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 SPACEX BUYERS ARE ABOUT TO GET WIPED OUT Here's what nobody is telling you! Right now, only 4% of SpaceX shares are actually trading. The other 96% are locked up. That changes on August 6! Q2 earnings drop - and instantly 20% of insider shares unlock. Then every 2 weeks another chunk hits the market. By September, insiders can dump 44% of all shares. The float goes from 4% to nearly 10x overnight. Think about what that means: For every 1 share trading today = 10 more are about to show up. Facebook did this in 2012. IPO at $38. Lockups expired. Six months later: $18. Half the value gone. Not because Facebook was a bad company. Because supply showed up and buyers ran out. $SPCX is the same movie. Just a much bigger screen. My target: $80-90 before year-end. Follow now - you don't want to miss what's coming next!

🚨 SPACEX BUYERS ARE ABOUT TO GET WIPED OUT Here's what nobody is telling you! Right now, only 4% of SpaceX shares are actually trading. The other 96% are locked up. That changes on August 6! Q2 earnings drop - and instantly 20% of insider shares unlock. Then every 2 weeks another chunk hits the market. By September, insiders can dump 44% of all shares. The float goes from 4% to nearly 10x overnight. Think about what that means: For every 1 share trading today = 10 more are about to show up. Facebook did this in 2012. IPO at $38. Lockups expired. Six months later: $18. Half the value gone. Not because Facebook was a bad company. Because supply showed up and buyers ran out. $SPCX is the same movie. Just a much bigger screen. My target: $80-90 before year-end. Follow now - you don't want to miss what's coming next!

Qmo

496,162 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 S&P 500 IS WALKING STRAIGHT INTO A WYCKOFF TRAP This is one of the oldest market structure models in history. And right now the S&P 500 is playing it out perfectly Preliminary Supply. Buying Climax. Upthrust. Post-Distribution Every phase has printed exactly where the model predicted We are now entering the Weakness phase - and if the structure holds, the target sits at 4,180 The market just hit new all-time highs while oil is above $120 and geopolitical risk is at decade highs That's not strength. That's the last trap before the drop NOTIFS ON!

🚨 S&P 500 IS WALKING STRAIGHT INTO A WYCKOFF TRAP This is one of the oldest market structure models in history. And right now the S&P 500 is playing it out perfectly Preliminary Supply. Buying Climax. Upthrust. Post-Distribution Every phase has printed exactly where the model predicted We are now entering the Weakness phase - and if the structure holds, the target sits at 4,180 The market just hit new all-time highs while oil is above $120 and geopolitical risk is at decade highs That's not strength. That's the last trap before the drop NOTIFS ON!

NoName

135,802 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

this is why viral memecoins like FRANKLIN and 67 aren't at $100 million marketcap right now, when 6 months ago they probably would've been in this video I gave my unfiltered thoughts on the state of the trenches, memecoins, and shitcoins and why things are the way they are right now if you're trading this market, I highly recommend watching this video because I think it will help provide some perspective on the psychology behind the way people are trading in this market and of course, if you're looking for a community to join feel free to join Kanto Labs

this is why viral memecoins like FRANKLIN and 67 aren't at $100 million marketcap right now, when 6 months ago they probably would've been in this video I gave my unfiltered thoughts on the state of the trenches, memecoins, and shitcoins and why things are the way they are right now if you're trading this market, I highly recommend watching this video because I think it will help provide some perspective on the psychology behind the way people are trading in this market and of course, if you're looking for a community to join feel free to join Kanto Labs

Ash Robin

53,195 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Elon Musk: The fundamental limitation on AI is going to be electricity generation. “A few years ago I made a very obvious prediction which is that the limitation on AI will be chips, and it's still chips today. Then, it will be electrical equipment because you need to take power that might be at 300,000 volts, all the way down to 400 volts for the computer. So you need step-down transformers and a lot of them and a lot of cabling and wiring and fuses, it's a lot of transformers, essentially. And the electrical transformer industry is not used to big changes in demand. And then as we solve the transformer shortage, there will be the fundamental electricity generation shortage. We're getting there soon. My guess is people going to start hitting challenges with power generation maybe by middle of next year, end of next year. The question is how many power plants are getting built and how fast can you build a power plant?” CNBC Interview with David Faber, May 20, 2025

Elon Musk: The fundamental limitation on AI is going to be electricity generation. “A few years ago I made a very obvious prediction which is that the limitation on AI will be chips, and it's still chips today. Then, it will be electrical equipment because you need to take power that might be at 300,000 volts, all the way down to 400 volts for the computer. So you need step-down transformers and a lot of them and a lot of cabling and wiring and fuses, it's a lot of transformers, essentially. And the electrical transformer industry is not used to big changes in demand. And then as we solve the transformer shortage, there will be the fundamental electricity generation shortage. We're getting there soon. My guess is people going to start hitting challenges with power generation maybe by middle of next year, end of next year. The question is how many power plants are getting built and how fast can you build a power plant?” CNBC Interview with David Faber, May 20, 2025

ELON CLIPS

428,030 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

David Friedberg: OpenAI’s rise is the best thing that ever happened to Google “No greater blessing has ever happened to Alphabet than OpenAI's rise.” “Not only did it create the foil for Google in the monopoly sense, but it also took the attention away from Google, focused it on OpenAI, and that attention fundamentally damaged OpenAI's strategic product capabilities because they had to start to be so much more careful about what they said and how they said it.” “And the opposite was happening at Google at the same time, which is Larry, Sergey and Sundar being given permission by the board to take risks, to go hard, to figure this out. And boom! It's amazing how the horse race has changed.” “The reason Google didn't lean into AI for years, even though they had the technology, is because they were nervous about cannibalization to search, they were nervous about the quality of the product, they didn't want to release things too early, and then they changed their posture.” “Which, by the way, I would argue is the opposite at OpenAI in the last couple months.” “I used to use advanced voice on ChatGPT all the time. I cannot stand it anymore. I do not use it.” “It has basically hedged away all of the value because it tries to be polite, it tries to make sure that it's giving you warnings all the time.” “It doesn't want to give you data because it's scared that it might give you the wrong data.” “OpenAI has been acting like an incumbent fearful of losing market share and fearful of getting attacked in the media and attacked by consumers for saying the wrong thing.” “And so they've taken this kind of defensive posture that I think has fundamentally damaged the product and the brand.”

The All-In Podcast

108,007 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

The Australian economy is teetering on the brink of collapse amid a severe diesel and gasoline shortage. One of the nation’s two remaining refineries is now engulfed in flames, pushing the entire fuel supply network at risk. Australia imports most of it's diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from Singapore and South Korea. But those two sources are not receiving enough crude oil from the middle east, so they are not able to export anything to Australia. Why does Australia no longer have it's own refineries? Australia actually exports it's oil production to other countries because it cannot refine it in Australia.

The Australian economy is teetering on the brink of collapse amid a severe diesel and gasoline shortage. One of the nation’s two remaining refineries is now engulfed in flames, pushing the entire fuel supply network at risk. Australia imports most of it's diesel, gasoline and jet fuel from Singapore and South Korea. But those two sources are not receiving enough crude oil from the middle east, so they are not able to export anything to Australia. Why does Australia no longer have it's own refineries? Australia actually exports it's oil production to other countries because it cannot refine it in Australia.

Wall Street Mav

72,207 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs. But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening. A huge AI bubble is inflating at incredible speed and is about to pop. This has happened before. 2000: Cisco was the king of the internet. Routers. Switches. Infrastructure. Everyone thought it would own the future. Then Cisco crashed -90% and never fully recovered. Now look at today: Nvidia is the god of AI. Chips. Data centers. Infrastructure. The entire market is now tied to one company. The Magnificent 7 control roughly 30% of the S&P 500. If Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta don’t get real returns, they cut spending. If they cut spending, Nvidia orders collapse. If Nvidia collapses, the whole market follows. It’s a bubble built around one company. 2000 was Cisco. 2026 is Nvidia. Remember, I’ve predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the exact Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING The stock market keeps pushing to new all-time highs. But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening. A huge AI bubble is inflating at incredible speed and is about to pop. This has happened before. 2000: Cisco was the king of the internet. Routers. Switches. Infrastructure. Everyone thought it would own the future. Then Cisco crashed -90% and never fully recovered. Now look at today: Nvidia is the god of AI. Chips. Data centers. Infrastructure. The entire market is now tied to one company. The Magnificent 7 control roughly 30% of the S&P 500. If Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta don’t get real returns, they cut spending. If they cut spending, Nvidia orders collapse. If Nvidia collapses, the whole market follows. It’s a bubble built around one company. 2000 was Cisco. 2026 is Nvidia. Remember, I’ve predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the exact Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

438,854 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS THE END OF THE AI BUBBLE SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public at the same time. $5.4T in combined capitalization. That is 8.4% of the entire S&P 500. The market needs $250B in fresh capital to absorb them. That money has to come from somewhere. And it will come from the biggest winners in the market: Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. The same stocks holding the entire index together. We saw what happened after the post-COVID liquidity bubble. Snap. Uber. Coinbase. Every time the symbol of the cycle went public, the market dumped. Now it’s happening again. Only this time, the numbers are much bigger. They are not IPOing into strength. They are IPOing into exit liquidity: Altman is cashing out. Private investors are cashing out. And the timing could not be worse: Rate hikes are back on the table, war with Iran is escalating, and the mid-term year dump pattern is already active. Do not hand them your wealth. Remember, I’ve predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the exact Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

🚨 THIS IS THE END OF THE AI BUBBLE SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are all preparing to go public at the same time. $5.4T in combined capitalization. That is 8.4% of the entire S&P 500. The market needs $250B in fresh capital to absorb them. That money has to come from somewhere. And it will come from the biggest winners in the market: Nvidia. Microsoft. Google. The same stocks holding the entire index together. We saw what happened after the post-COVID liquidity bubble. Snap. Uber. Coinbase. Every time the symbol of the cycle went public, the market dumped. Now it’s happening again. Only this time, the numbers are much bigger. They are not IPOing into strength. They are IPOing into exit liquidity: Altman is cashing out. Private investors are cashing out. And the timing could not be worse: Rate hikes are back on the table, war with Iran is escalating, and the mid-term year dump pattern is already active. Do not hand them your wealth. Remember, I’ve predicted all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the exact Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 three years ago and the top at $126,000 in October. If you missed those calls, don’t worry. I’ll call the next one too. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

663,991 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten