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Everyone is focused on U.S.-China tariff rollbacks. But the real shift is institutional - the creation of a "formal committee" to discuss currency misalignment, non-tariff barriers & market access. This is a systemic restructuring that was already foreshadowed by Miran. As I laid out in my episode on The... Bitcoin Layer, the U.S.–China economic imbalance—overconsumption vs overproduction—isn’t just a story about Americans being “addicted to debt and consumption.” Miran lays out that it is driven by the structure of the dollar system. Surplus nations like China suppress domestic consumption, overproduce, and accumulate dollar reserves—then recycle them into U.S. Treasuries. This dynamic props up the dollar, hollows out American industry, and sustains a trade imbalance that cannot self-correct. In November 2024, Stephen Miran—now Chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers—published a 41-page blueprint for addressing exactly this. He called it a “Triffin World”—where global reserve demand locks the U.S. into permanent deficits, and surplus economies into export dependence. The remedy, according to him? Re-anchor the trade-finance loop: → Align currency values with real economies. → Impose hard constraints on reserve accumulation. → Shift from ad hoc tariffs to systemic recalibration of flows. This new U.S.-China committee is early—but its scope tracks closely with Miran’s roadmap. It won’t make headlines. But it could be where Bretton Woods II begins to unwind—with both sides finally willing to speak in structural terms. He argued that if reserve dynamics don’t change, no amount of tariffs will rebalance global trade. Because what we’re living through isn’t merely a trade dispute. It’s a systemic misalignment—between how value is produced, stored, and consumed. These kinds of imbalances don’t stay economic. Left uncorrected, they become political. And eventually, they become war. What this new committee offers—for the first time—is a venue to rethink the system itself. Here's my clip from the podcast talking about why global imbalances start with the dollar system.show more

Tanvi Ratna

115,386 subscribers

54,091 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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11 Comments

Tanvi Ratna1 year ago

I’ve spent a decade decoding how global power, tech, and finance really move. If you’re tired of the noise and want straight talk on the forces shaping America’s future — follow me on Substack & here and hit the 🔔

Breakout1 year ago

Want to understand financial markets and learn how to manage capital effectively? Join our free course on Breakout Discord! Breakout is a professional platform offering access to 100+ market assets. We provide fair & transparent conditions to help you reach your financial goals

Pankaj1 year ago

On my watchlist.

abe1 year ago

not sure how china moved from 2% appreciation to 2% depreciation vs $ from 2012-13 onwards. had this change not happened we would be around 4Y to the $ or we get the same effect now with a 75% tariff by all countries

David Daglio1 year ago

Thank you, this appears to be exactly what the world needs....balance between over producers and over consumers. The key constituent that is not on board yet are large US global corporates. How do we get them on board?

Alexis de Tocqueville1 year ago

*exacerbates. Great vid though! 🙂

Vijay Iyer1 year ago

Agreed imbalanced start with dollar system. Who gets to decide the currency reset and more imp, what would the trigger/mechanics/sequence/signals be that we are getting closer to such a moment?

YH1 year ago

You are one of the few people on X who can clearly articulate the dynamics and future prospects of the Sino-US trade war

sg1 year ago

fake news

Kenneth 老百姓 Rapoza1 year ago

Yes. Michael Pettis says this too. I wonder how different this will be from the US China Strategic Dialogue of Bush/Obama. It also addressed currency though more along the lines of RMB being Allowed to free float, which never really happened. It's a loose free float, as you know. If it's new Bretton Woods, we shall see. Bessent said they didn't discuss currencies.

Chris Daubert1 year ago

Realigning the global currency/settlement system will be difficult to explain and sell. Creating a price-specie flow mechanism without a gold standard will be tricky.

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35,618 views • 1 year ago

The Structural Case For Continued Dollar Strength $DXYZ In this Short video, Brent Johnson Santiago Capital and I break down the structural forces supporting continued #USdollar dominance, from global trade and debt markets to reserve holdings and crisis-driven demand. Despite years of predictions about the dollar’s demise, the global financial system remains deeply dependent on it. The key reason is that the #dollar is far more than a currency—it is the backbone of global trade, credit, funding markets, and financial infrastructure. The dollar market outside the United States is actually much larger than the one inside it. Trillions of dollars of debt are owed by foreign governments, corporations, and banks. Much of that borrowing occurs between non-U.S. entities, yet it is still denominated in dollars. That means the rest of the world owes enormous amounts in a currency it cannot create or control. Roughly 58% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars, compared with about 20% in euros. Around half of global trade is invoiced in dollars, including transactions where the United States is not involved. The eurodollar system, the Treasury market, the SWIFT network, and the global banking infrastructure all reinforce the dollar’s dominant position. Many investors point to central banks increasing their #gold $GLD holdings as evidence that the dollar is losing relevance. Gold has indeed become a larger share of reserves, but part of that shift reflects higher gold prices and lower Treasury prices as #interestrates have risen. Foreign ownership of U.S. #Treasuries remains near all-time highs, suggesting the world has not abandoned dollar assets. The most overlooked point is what happens during a crisis. Countries may hold gold as a neutral reserve asset, but when they need liquidity, they often sell gold to obtain dollars. During periods of stress (like the Iran war), demand for dollars frequently rises because global trade, debt servicing, and commodity purchases still rely on them. So, de-dollarization may be happening at the margins, but replacing the dollar is far more difficult than many assume. The structural foundations supporting dollar demand remain firmly in place, and in moments of uncertainty, the world still turns to dollars first. Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️ This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:

The Structural Case For Continued Dollar Strength $DXYZ In this Short video, Brent Johnson Santiago Capital and I break down the structural forces supporting continued #USdollar dominance, from global trade and debt markets to reserve holdings and crisis-driven demand. Despite years of predictions about the dollar’s demise, the global financial system remains deeply dependent on it. The key reason is that the #dollar is far more than a currency—it is the backbone of global trade, credit, funding markets, and financial infrastructure. The dollar market outside the United States is actually much larger than the one inside it. Trillions of dollars of debt are owed by foreign governments, corporations, and banks. Much of that borrowing occurs between non-U.S. entities, yet it is still denominated in dollars. That means the rest of the world owes enormous amounts in a currency it cannot create or control. Roughly 58% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars, compared with about 20% in euros. Around half of global trade is invoiced in dollars, including transactions where the United States is not involved. The eurodollar system, the Treasury market, the SWIFT network, and the global banking infrastructure all reinforce the dollar’s dominant position. Many investors point to central banks increasing their #gold $GLD holdings as evidence that the dollar is losing relevance. Gold has indeed become a larger share of reserves, but part of that shift reflects higher gold prices and lower Treasury prices as #interestrates have risen. Foreign ownership of U.S. #Treasuries remains near all-time highs, suggesting the world has not abandoned dollar assets. The most overlooked point is what happens during a crisis. Countries may hold gold as a neutral reserve asset, but when they need liquidity, they often sell gold to obtain dollars. During periods of stress (like the Iran war), demand for dollars frequently rises because global trade, debt servicing, and commodity purchases still rely on them. So, de-dollarization may be happening at the margins, but replacing the dollar is far more difficult than many assume. The structural foundations supporting dollar demand remain firmly in place, and in moments of uncertainty, the world still turns to dollars first. Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️ This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:

Lance Roberts

13,688 views • 2 months ago

Bessent: Help Iran launder money and you'll be kicked out of the U.S. dollar system. “The clock just started ticking.” Wait a second… 🤣 At what point does threatening everyone with expulsion from the dollar system stop being a punishment… …and start becoming a free incentive to build a system that doesn't need the dollar? Careful, Scott. If you keep showing everyone where the exit is, eventually somebody might actually use it. 😏 And China is the part of this experiment I'm really interested in. 🍿

Bessent: Help Iran launder money and you'll be kicked out of the U.S. dollar system. “The clock just started ticking.” Wait a second… 🤣 At what point does threatening everyone with expulsion from the dollar system stop being a punishment… …and start becoming a free incentive to build a system that doesn't need the dollar? Careful, Scott. If you keep showing everyone where the exit is, eventually somebody might actually use it. 😏 And China is the part of this experiment I'm really interested in. 🍿

Honza Černý

21,367 views • 22 hours ago

🚨 PUTIN JUST SOUNDED THE ULTIMATE ALARM: THE DOLLAR’S DAYS AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY ARE NUMBERED In a bombshell statement, Vladimir Putin declared the Western financial system is now “out of date” and that the dollar will no longer remain the global reserve currency. This comes after JD Vance, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett sounded the same alarm. At the same time, BRICS has moved forward with a blockchain-based payments and settlement system fully backed by gold, a direct alternative to SWIFT designed for cross-border trade outside the traditional dollar rails. Russia has already signed its own version of a Clarity Act into law, creating full regulatory framework for digital assets and crypto settlements in foreign trade. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clarified: “We were never against the dollar. But SWIFT was weaponized against us.” He warned that even many U.S. allies who felt the pressure of the dollar system are now ready and actively preparing for alternatives. If the dollar loses its reserve status or even if the U.S. treasury demand weakens, the consequences would be catastrophic. The treasuries are already reaching the 5% yield mark. This was even warned by the famous City Of London banker Lord Belgrave at the start of the year. This proves that the institutions have been preparing for it, but not the retail. This isn’t theory anymore. The shift is accelerating in real time.

🚨 PUTIN JUST SOUNDED THE ULTIMATE ALARM: THE DOLLAR’S DAYS AS WORLD RESERVE CURRENCY ARE NUMBERED In a bombshell statement, Vladimir Putin declared the Western financial system is now “out of date” and that the dollar will no longer remain the global reserve currency. This comes after JD Vance, Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio and Warren Buffett sounded the same alarm. At the same time, BRICS has moved forward with a blockchain-based payments and settlement system fully backed by gold, a direct alternative to SWIFT designed for cross-border trade outside the traditional dollar rails. Russia has already signed its own version of a Clarity Act into law, creating full regulatory framework for digital assets and crypto settlements in foreign trade. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov clarified: “We were never against the dollar. But SWIFT was weaponized against us.” He warned that even many U.S. allies who felt the pressure of the dollar system are now ready and actively preparing for alternatives. If the dollar loses its reserve status or even if the U.S. treasury demand weakens, the consequences would be catastrophic. The treasuries are already reaching the 5% yield mark. This was even warned by the famous City Of London banker Lord Belgrave at the start of the year. This proves that the institutions have been preparing for it, but not the retail. This isn’t theory anymore. The shift is accelerating in real time.

Stern Drew

134,804 views • 6 days ago

🇺🇸Trump’s Tariff Plan Explained: Destroy or Help The US Economy? Trump describes tariffs as his "favorite word." To understand the concept, think of it like this: Imagine you’re an accountant seeking business referrals. You meet someone who sells auto insurance, and you agree to exchange referrals equally. A month later, you’ve given them five referrals, but they haven’t given you any. You now have a "referral deficit" while they have a "referral surplus." This is similar to a trade deficit versus a trade surplus. Now, on a larger scale, the U.S. has a global trade deficit of $1.1 trillion, meaning it has provided $1.1 trillion more business to other countries than it has received. China, on the other hand, has a trade surplus of $823 billion, receiving more business than it gives. Trump’s use of tariffs is an attempt to address these imbalances and renegotiate trade deals. Tariffs are tools that governments can use to create leverage in trade negotiations. Historically, tariffs have been used as a form of taxation on imports, dating back to the Roman Empire and becoming prominent in the mercantilist policies of the 16th and 18th centuries. Economist Adam Smith, known for his book Wealth of Nations, argued that tariffs can disrupt free trade, but he noted 2 exceptions: protecting industries critical to national security and counteracting tariffs imposed by other nations. These points remain relevant in modern trade discussions. When examining trade surpluses and deficits globally, China leads with a significant surplus, while countries like the U.S., UK, and India experience deficits. Tariffs can serve as leverage to balance these relationships and ensure fair trade practices. Understanding tariffs and trade negotiations is key to grasping how governments seek to protect their economies and industries in a globalized world. Source: Patrick Bet-David , @ValuetainmentTV

🇺🇸Trump’s Tariff Plan Explained: Destroy or Help The US Economy? Trump describes tariffs as his "favorite word." To understand the concept, think of it like this: Imagine you’re an accountant seeking business referrals. You meet someone who sells auto insurance, and you agree to exchange referrals equally. A month later, you’ve given them five referrals, but they haven’t given you any. You now have a "referral deficit" while they have a "referral surplus." This is similar to a trade deficit versus a trade surplus. Now, on a larger scale, the U.S. has a global trade deficit of $1.1 trillion, meaning it has provided $1.1 trillion more business to other countries than it has received. China, on the other hand, has a trade surplus of $823 billion, receiving more business than it gives. Trump’s use of tariffs is an attempt to address these imbalances and renegotiate trade deals. Tariffs are tools that governments can use to create leverage in trade negotiations. Historically, tariffs have been used as a form of taxation on imports, dating back to the Roman Empire and becoming prominent in the mercantilist policies of the 16th and 18th centuries. Economist Adam Smith, known for his book Wealth of Nations, argued that tariffs can disrupt free trade, but he noted 2 exceptions: protecting industries critical to national security and counteracting tariffs imposed by other nations. These points remain relevant in modern trade discussions. When examining trade surpluses and deficits globally, China leads with a significant surplus, while countries like the U.S., UK, and India experience deficits. Tariffs can serve as leverage to balance these relationships and ensure fair trade practices. Understanding tariffs and trade negotiations is key to grasping how governments seek to protect their economies and industries in a globalized world. Source: Patrick Bet-David , @ValuetainmentTV

Mario Nawfal

322,734 views • 1 year ago

🚨🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: THE NEXT WORLD WAR IS BEING FOUGHT WITH GOLD Central banks are buying gold at record speed. China is trading oil in yuan. And the U.S. dollar’s grip on the world is starting to slip. Luke Gromen breaks down how the balance of power is shifting from paper to metal. * How China and Russia are using gold to undermine the dollar * Why America’s debt addiction is forcing the world to look for a plan B * How the yuan-gold trade network could upend global finance * Why Europe’s energy policies are pushing it toward decline * And what happens when the U.S. and China lock into economic warfare that no one can win Gromen says this is not just about money or markets. It is about control, and the side that owns the gold writes the rules. 03:08 – Central Banks Are Buying Gold Fast, but why now? 06:09 – Why gold is the “anti-dollar” and how it protects wealth 09:15 – Lessons from the 1970s: What China learned from U.S. gold mistakes 13:19 – The dollar vs. the yuan: The real global currency war 16:00 – Gold rising as the new global reserve 20:36 – Is the U.S. secretly importing massive amounts of gold? 23:55 – What happens if the dollar loses its throne? 30:36 – Why this could trigger the biggest boom since WW2 36:04 – China’s economy: crisis or calm? 43:56 – Why decoupling means more inflation, not less 49:01 – The rare earths trap: how China cornered the U.S. 55:09 – How China quietly captured corporate America 59:05 – Can a multipolar world actually work? 01:00:15 – Is Europe committing economic suicide? 01:05:14 – Closing thoughts: Can rational leadership return?

🚨🇨🇳 INTERVIEW: THE NEXT WORLD WAR IS BEING FOUGHT WITH GOLD Central banks are buying gold at record speed. China is trading oil in yuan. And the U.S. dollar’s grip on the world is starting to slip. Luke Gromen breaks down how the balance of power is shifting from paper to metal. * How China and Russia are using gold to undermine the dollar * Why America’s debt addiction is forcing the world to look for a plan B * How the yuan-gold trade network could upend global finance * Why Europe’s energy policies are pushing it toward decline * And what happens when the U.S. and China lock into economic warfare that no one can win Gromen says this is not just about money or markets. It is about control, and the side that owns the gold writes the rules. 03:08 – Central Banks Are Buying Gold Fast, but why now? 06:09 – Why gold is the “anti-dollar” and how it protects wealth 09:15 – Lessons from the 1970s: What China learned from U.S. gold mistakes 13:19 – The dollar vs. the yuan: The real global currency war 16:00 – Gold rising as the new global reserve 20:36 – Is the U.S. secretly importing massive amounts of gold? 23:55 – What happens if the dollar loses its throne? 30:36 – Why this could trigger the biggest boom since WW2 36:04 – China’s economy: crisis or calm? 43:56 – Why decoupling means more inflation, not less 49:01 – The rare earths trap: how China cornered the U.S. 55:09 – How China quietly captured corporate America 59:05 – Can a multipolar world actually work? 01:00:15 – Is Europe committing economic suicide? 01:05:14 – Closing thoughts: Can rational leadership return?

Mario Nawfal

2,567,630 views • 9 months ago

🚨 Historic: China Internationalizes the Gold-Backed Yuan and Payment System for the First Time Ever For the first time, the People’s Bank of China has explicitly made expanding the RMB’s global role a core priority: More use in trade and investment, stronger offshore markets, better cross-border payment systems, and solidifying Hong Kong as a key hub with physical gold vaults, clearing, and trading infrastructure. State institutions are also heavily bullish on gold. At the same time, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just warned that if the U.S. is no longer the world’s strongest economy and military in 25 years, the dollar will lose its reserve-currency status. History shows reserve status follows the dominant power. Dimon’s point is straightforward: keep the edge or lose the privilege. China is moving on multiple fronts to challenge that dominance: • Building gold-linked infrastructure and credibility for the yuan (vaults, trading, physical delivery options) so the currency feels more “hard-asset backed” to the rest of the world. • Expanding CIPS and pushing the new BRICS payment system (BRICS Pay / Bridge) as a real alternative to SWIFT, allowing countries to settle trade in local currencies without going through the dollar system. And don’t forget the real-world leverage: China still dominates the rare-earth supply chain (roughly 70% of mining, over 90% of processing, and the vast majority of permanent magnets). These materials are essential for EVs, wind turbines, defense systems, electronics, and more. That gives Beijing serious bargaining power in any shift away from dollar-centric trade. None of this means the dollar collapses tomorrow. It still settles the bulk of global trade and holds the majority of reserves. But the direction of travel is clear: China is systematically building the plumbing (gold, payments, commodities control) for a multipolar currency world, while the U.S. is being told by one of its own top bankers that the clock is running if it loses its edge. Soon as China banned retail paper gold market, Chinese investors turned to tokenized gold on blockchains. The game is long. The pieces are moving.

🚨 Historic: China Internationalizes the Gold-Backed Yuan and Payment System for the First Time Ever For the first time, the People’s Bank of China has explicitly made expanding the RMB’s global role a core priority: More use in trade and investment, stronger offshore markets, better cross-border payment systems, and solidifying Hong Kong as a key hub with physical gold vaults, clearing, and trading infrastructure. State institutions are also heavily bullish on gold. At the same time, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon just warned that if the U.S. is no longer the world’s strongest economy and military in 25 years, the dollar will lose its reserve-currency status. History shows reserve status follows the dominant power. Dimon’s point is straightforward: keep the edge or lose the privilege. China is moving on multiple fronts to challenge that dominance: • Building gold-linked infrastructure and credibility for the yuan (vaults, trading, physical delivery options) so the currency feels more “hard-asset backed” to the rest of the world. • Expanding CIPS and pushing the new BRICS payment system (BRICS Pay / Bridge) as a real alternative to SWIFT, allowing countries to settle trade in local currencies without going through the dollar system. And don’t forget the real-world leverage: China still dominates the rare-earth supply chain (roughly 70% of mining, over 90% of processing, and the vast majority of permanent magnets). These materials are essential for EVs, wind turbines, defense systems, electronics, and more. That gives Beijing serious bargaining power in any shift away from dollar-centric trade. None of this means the dollar collapses tomorrow. It still settles the bulk of global trade and holds the majority of reserves. But the direction of travel is clear: China is systematically building the plumbing (gold, payments, commodities control) for a multipolar currency world, while the U.S. is being told by one of its own top bankers that the clock is running if it loses its edge. Soon as China banned retail paper gold market, Chinese investors turned to tokenized gold on blockchains. The game is long. The pieces are moving.

Stern Drew

249,591 views • 12 days ago

What impact does the attack on Iran have? Geopolitical Instability: The speaker asserts that the U.S. is facing a potential military defeat in the Middle East, exacerbated by a lack of support from traditional allies like Europe and Japan. Economic Vulnerability: The current economic growth is described as an "AI bubble" heavily dependent on foreign investment, specifically from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. Financial Chain Reaction: A withdrawal of Middle Eastern capital could lead to a Wall Street collapse, a run on the banks, and a significant devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. Impact on Citizens: A weaker dollar would lead to hyperinflation, significantly increasing the cost of living (gas, groceries) while wages remain stagnant. Global Power Shift: The speaker warns that China and Russia are poised to capitalize on U.S. instability to establish a new world order and control global trade.

What impact does the attack on Iran have? Geopolitical Instability: The speaker asserts that the U.S. is facing a potential military defeat in the Middle East, exacerbated by a lack of support from traditional allies like Europe and Japan. Economic Vulnerability: The current economic growth is described as an "AI bubble" heavily dependent on foreign investment, specifically from Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds. Financial Chain Reaction: A withdrawal of Middle Eastern capital could lead to a Wall Street collapse, a run on the banks, and a significant devaluation of the U.S. Dollar. Impact on Citizens: A weaker dollar would lead to hyperinflation, significantly increasing the cost of living (gas, groceries) while wages remain stagnant. Global Power Shift: The speaker warns that China and Russia are poised to capitalize on U.S. instability to establish a new world order and control global trade.

Johannes Maria

15,518 views • 5 months ago