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Everyone is focused on U.S.-China tariff rollbacks. But the real shift is institutional - the creation of a "formal committee" to discuss currency misalignment, non-tariff barriers & market access. This is a systemic restructuring that was already foreshadowed by Miran. As I laid out in my episode on The...

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Tanvi Ratna

115,386 subscribers

54,091 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

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11 Kommentare

Profilbild von Tanvi Ratna
Tanvi Ratnavor 1 Jahr

I’ve spent a decade decoding how global power, tech, and finance really move. If you’re tired of the noise and want straight talk on the forces shaping America’s future — follow me on Substack & here and hit the 🔔

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Breakoutvor 1 Jahr

Want to understand financial markets and learn how to manage capital effectively? Join our free course on Breakout Discord! Breakout is a professional platform offering access to 100+ market assets. We provide fair & transparent conditions to help you reach your financial goals

Profilbild von Pankaj
Pankajvor 1 Jahr

On my watchlist.

Profilbild von abe
abevor 1 Jahr

not sure how china moved from 2% appreciation to 2% depreciation vs $ from 2012-13 onwards. had this change not happened we would be around 4Y to the $ or we get the same effect now with a 75% tariff by all countries

Profilbild von David Daglio
David Dagliovor 1 Jahr

Thank you, this appears to be exactly what the world needs....balance between over producers and over consumers. The key constituent that is not on board yet are large US global corporates. How do we get them on board?

Profilbild von Alexis de Tocqueville
Alexis de Tocquevillevor 1 Jahr

*exacerbates. Great vid though! 🙂

Profilbild von Vijay Iyer
Vijay Iyervor 1 Jahr

Agreed imbalanced start with dollar system. Who gets to decide the currency reset and more imp, what would the trigger/mechanics/sequence/signals be that we are getting closer to such a moment?

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YHvor 1 Jahr

You are one of the few people on X who can clearly articulate the dynamics and future prospects of the Sino-US trade war

Profilbild von sg
sgvor 1 Jahr

fake news

Profilbild von Kenneth 老百姓 Rapoza
Kenneth 老百姓 Rapozavor 1 Jahr

Yes. Michael Pettis says this too. I wonder how different this will be from the US China Strategic Dialogue of Bush/Obama. It also addressed currency though more along the lines of RMB being Allowed to free float, which never really happened. It's a loose free float, as you know. If it's new Bretton Woods, we shall see. Bessent said they didn't discuss currencies.

Profilbild von Chris Daubert
Chris Daubertvor 1 Jahr

Realigning the global currency/settlement system will be difficult to explain and sell. Creating a price-specie flow mechanism without a gold standard will be tricky.

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The Structural Case For Continued Dollar Strength $DXYZ In this Short video, Brent Johnson Santiago Capital and I break down the structural forces supporting continued #USdollar dominance, from global trade and debt markets to reserve holdings and crisis-driven demand. Despite years of predictions about the dollar’s demise, the global financial system remains deeply dependent on it. The key reason is that the #dollar is far more than a currency—it is the backbone of global trade, credit, funding markets, and financial infrastructure. The dollar market outside the United States is actually much larger than the one inside it. Trillions of dollars of debt are owed by foreign governments, corporations, and banks. Much of that borrowing occurs between non-U.S. entities, yet it is still denominated in dollars. That means the rest of the world owes enormous amounts in a currency it cannot create or control. Roughly 58% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars, compared with about 20% in euros. Around half of global trade is invoiced in dollars, including transactions where the United States is not involved. The eurodollar system, the Treasury market, the SWIFT network, and the global banking infrastructure all reinforce the dollar’s dominant position. Many investors point to central banks increasing their #gold $GLD holdings as evidence that the dollar is losing relevance. Gold has indeed become a larger share of reserves, but part of that shift reflects higher gold prices and lower Treasury prices as #interestrates have risen. Foreign ownership of U.S. #Treasuries remains near all-time highs, suggesting the world has not abandoned dollar assets. The most overlooked point is what happens during a crisis. Countries may hold gold as a neutral reserve asset, but when they need liquidity, they often sell gold to obtain dollars. During periods of stress (like the Iran war), demand for dollars frequently rises because global trade, debt servicing, and commodity purchases still rely on them. So, de-dollarization may be happening at the margins, but replacing the dollar is far more difficult than many assume. The structural foundations supporting dollar demand remain firmly in place, and in moments of uncertainty, the world still turns to dollars first. Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️ This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:
2:59

The Structural Case For Continued Dollar Strength $DXYZ In this Short video, Brent Johnson Santiago Capital and I break down the structural forces supporting continued #USdollar dominance, from global trade and debt markets to reserve holdings and crisis-driven demand. Despite years of predictions about the dollar’s demise, the global financial system remains deeply dependent on it. The key reason is that the #dollar is far more than a currency—it is the backbone of global trade, credit, funding markets, and financial infrastructure. The dollar market outside the United States is actually much larger than the one inside it. Trillions of dollars of debt are owed by foreign governments, corporations, and banks. Much of that borrowing occurs between non-U.S. entities, yet it is still denominated in dollars. That means the rest of the world owes enormous amounts in a currency it cannot create or control. Roughly 58% of allocated global foreign exchange reserves are held in dollars, compared with about 20% in euros. Around half of global trade is invoiced in dollars, including transactions where the United States is not involved. The eurodollar system, the Treasury market, the SWIFT network, and the global banking infrastructure all reinforce the dollar’s dominant position. Many investors point to central banks increasing their #gold $GLD holdings as evidence that the dollar is losing relevance. Gold has indeed become a larger share of reserves, but part of that shift reflects higher gold prices and lower Treasury prices as #interestrates have risen. Foreign ownership of U.S. #Treasuries remains near all-time highs, suggesting the world has not abandoned dollar assets. The most overlooked point is what happens during a crisis. Countries may hold gold as a neutral reserve asset, but when they need liquidity, they often sell gold to obtain dollars. During periods of stress (like the Iran war), demand for dollars frequently rises because global trade, debt servicing, and commodity purchases still rely on them. So, de-dollarization may be happening at the margins, but replacing the dollar is far more difficult than many assume. The structural foundations supporting dollar demand remain firmly in place, and in moments of uncertainty, the world still turns to dollars first. Check out our comprehensive "15 Trading Rules" guide ▶️ This guide includes practical rules for managing positions, taking profits, controlling risk, and avoiding the emotional mistakes that often hurt returns during major market corrections. If you like this video, please ❤️like and 🔁retweet 📺Full episode: Catch me daily on The Real Investment Show:

Lance Roberts

13,688 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal. The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The Art of the Deal. Where is Rand Paul?
0:29

The U.S. and China have reached a trade deal. The U.S. will cut tariffs on Chinese imports from 145% to 30%, and China will lower tariffs on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The Art of the Deal. Where is Rand Paul?

CeCe ˗ˏˋ ✞ ˎˊ˗ 🌴 🇺🇸

43,486 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

🇺🇸Trump’s Tariff Plan Explained: Destroy or Help The US Economy? Trump describes tariffs as his "favorite word." To understand the concept, think of it like this: Imagine you’re an accountant seeking business referrals. You meet someone who sells auto insurance, and you agree to exchange referrals equally. A month later, you’ve given them five referrals, but they haven’t given you any. You now have a "referral deficit" while they have a "referral surplus." This is similar to a trade deficit versus a trade surplus. Now, on a larger scale, the U.S. has a global trade deficit of $1.1 trillion, meaning it has provided $1.1 trillion more business to other countries than it has received. China, on the other hand, has a trade surplus of $823 billion, receiving more business than it gives. Trump’s use of tariffs is an attempt to address these imbalances and renegotiate trade deals. Tariffs are tools that governments can use to create leverage in trade negotiations. Historically, tariffs have been used as a form of taxation on imports, dating back to the Roman Empire and becoming prominent in the mercantilist policies of the 16th and 18th centuries. Economist Adam Smith, known for his book Wealth of Nations, argued that tariffs can disrupt free trade, but he noted 2 exceptions: protecting industries critical to national security and counteracting tariffs imposed by other nations. These points remain relevant in modern trade discussions. When examining trade surpluses and deficits globally, China leads with a significant surplus, while countries like the U.S., UK, and India experience deficits. Tariffs can serve as leverage to balance these relationships and ensure fair trade practices. Understanding tariffs and trade negotiations is key to grasping how governments seek to protect their economies and industries in a globalized world. Source: Patrick Bet-David , @ValuetainmentTV
14:05

🇺🇸Trump’s Tariff Plan Explained: Destroy or Help The US Economy? Trump describes tariffs as his "favorite word." To understand the concept, think of it like this: Imagine you’re an accountant seeking business referrals. You meet someone who sells auto insurance, and you agree to exchange referrals equally. A month later, you’ve given them five referrals, but they haven’t given you any. You now have a "referral deficit" while they have a "referral surplus." This is similar to a trade deficit versus a trade surplus. Now, on a larger scale, the U.S. has a global trade deficit of $1.1 trillion, meaning it has provided $1.1 trillion more business to other countries than it has received. China, on the other hand, has a trade surplus of $823 billion, receiving more business than it gives. Trump’s use of tariffs is an attempt to address these imbalances and renegotiate trade deals. Tariffs are tools that governments can use to create leverage in trade negotiations. Historically, tariffs have been used as a form of taxation on imports, dating back to the Roman Empire and becoming prominent in the mercantilist policies of the 16th and 18th centuries. Economist Adam Smith, known for his book Wealth of Nations, argued that tariffs can disrupt free trade, but he noted 2 exceptions: protecting industries critical to national security and counteracting tariffs imposed by other nations. These points remain relevant in modern trade discussions. When examining trade surpluses and deficits globally, China leads with a significant surplus, while countries like the U.S., UK, and India experience deficits. Tariffs can serve as leverage to balance these relationships and ensure fair trade practices. Understanding tariffs and trade negotiations is key to grasping how governments seek to protect their economies and industries in a globalized world. Source: Patrick Bet-David , @ValuetainmentTV

Mario Nawfal

322,734 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr