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Everything has happened before. Everything is repeated. But the mistake that had the biggest effect on me was in 1982. I had calculated that American banks had lent a lot of money to a bunch of countries that would not be able to pay it back. Mexico defaulted in... show more
127,158 просмотров • 2 дней назад •via X (Twitter)
Комментарии: 33

WHEN DID AMERICA FUCK ITSELF? Reviewing Steve Keen’s Debt Report. —NAFTA 1992 —Uruguay Agreement 1994 —WTO 1995 Solution: Exit and Reverse all three… *The housing pic is a bonus*

the fed eased and wrecked his short, oldest trap in the book and he still fell for it

August 1982. Mexico tells Washington it can't pay its $80 billion. Same week, the Dow prints 776.92, the bottom of a 16-year bear, and the greatest bull run in Dow history begins: 1,400% into 2000. Right on the default, wrong on the tape.

The expensive part isnt being wrong. Its having a way of thinking that can stay convinced after reality disagrees. A prediction you can revisit is useful. Certainty that rewrites itself after the outcome isnt.

Losing everything and still ending up better off because of the lesson it taught is rare kind of failure most people never recover from mentally

Understood Brother Let it stand. Requires no further explanation than a soul already gone through it. Let it stand Let us move on respectfully and responsibly. If not ( I got a shovel that I don’t dare dig you an *agreedjustgrave*)

Good insight; terrible interviewer.

Never fight the Fed. Same thing balene may & June after covid

Are we going to have the oil shock interest rates like the 70s

So, tell more, pls, ... if 1 USD is now the value of 1 cent (1 1950 USD) say, ... everything is scaled, as such, so relatively speaking, thing to thing (less the shift of 70% or whatever of the workers pay, being diverted from their pocket to the top 7%) defaults are discounted?

Wow.

Totally agree. I am in the Gulf, and I was counting on buying big when GCC stocks started crashing when hostilities commenced. They didn't. (In fact the Saudi market (TASI) actually rallied.) Never put all your eggs in one basket, and never assume the market HAS to do something.

Life's experiences have an affect of changing us more than we realise at the time.

Don't fight the Fed

and should ask what if I am wrong

bro left us on a cliffhanger in 1982

Wise words as always.

This time let's change the equation. Remove the power of the Feds to print money.

This was a first:

Oh my gosh Tony SHUT UP and let the man talk

losing the bet taught him something winning never could🤑

History has never repeated. It might rhyme, but we still can’t step into the same river twice.

That’s rough, but gotta respect the honesty here.

The S&P 500 bottomed that same month, at 102.42 on August 12, 1982. By March 1987 it was above 300.

mark

I try to learn a lot from you. You have always been a great source of knowledge.

Ray Dalio being publicly wrong and losing everything before rebuilding is one of the more humbling stories in finance honestly. His story alongside @JasonColelfod's take on risk management both remind me why humility beats conviction every single time. Moving from being right to asking how do I know I'm right changes everything.

Wow, that's a powerful reminder of how history repeats itself in finance. It's crazy how far-reaching those decisions can be!

Principle of the Day. “If a relationship requires you to validate someone else’s delusion(s), it is a bad investment of your finite time.”

After this, your resurrection is highly admirable! I also learned the most valuable lessons when it really hurt.

Nothing is repeated.

Right about the crisis, wrong about the market. That switch from 'I'm right' to 'how do I know I'm right' says it all.

You bet against America. Never bet against America, Mr Dalio.
