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Everything has happened before. Everything is repeated. But the mistake that had the biggest effect on me was in 1982. I had calculated that American banks had lent a lot of money to a bunch of countries that would not be able to pay it back. Mexico defaulted in...

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Ray Dalio

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127,158 次观看 • 2 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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33 条评论

Mike Gellner 🥃 4F’N SENATE 的头像
Mike Gellner 🥃 4F’N SENATE2 天前

WHEN DID AMERICA FUCK ITSELF? Reviewing Steve Keen’s Debt Report. —NAFTA 1992 —Uruguay Agreement 1994 —WTO 1995 Solution: Exit and Reverse all three… *The housing pic is a bonus*

Fernanda · fireply.ai 的头像
Fernanda · fireply.ai2 天前

the fed eased and wrecked his short, oldest trap in the book and he still fell for it

The Market Historian 的头像
The Market Historian2 天前

August 1982. Mexico tells Washington it can't pay its $80 billion. Same week, the Dow prints 776.92, the bottom of a 16-year bear, and the greatest bull run in Dow history begins: 1,400% into 2000. Right on the default, wrong on the tape.

Chris Hughett 的头像
Chris Hughett2 天前

The expensive part isnt being wrong. Its having a way of thinking that can stay convinced after reality disagrees. A prediction you can revisit is useful. Certainty that rewrites itself after the outcome isnt.

Doktor 的头像
Doktor2 天前

Losing everything and still ending up better off because of the lesson it taught is rare kind of failure most people never recover from mentally

Jeremy Mcnabb 的头像
Jeremy Mcnabb2 天前

Understood Brother Let it stand. Requires no further explanation than a soul already gone through it. Let it stand Let us move on respectfully and responsibly. If not ( I got a shovel that I don’t dare dig you an *agreedjustgrave*)

🐍 A R L A L C H A M I S T 的头像
🐍 A R L A L C H A M I S T2 天前

Good insight; terrible interviewer.

Frank Esco 的头像
Frank Esco2 天前

Never fight the Fed. Same thing balene may & June after covid

Kelly Parks 的头像
Kelly Parks1 天前

Are we going to have the oil shock interest rates like the 70s

scott himle 的头像
scott himle2 天前

So, tell more, pls, ... if 1 USD is now the value of 1 cent (1 1950 USD) say, ... everything is scaled, as such, so relatively speaking, thing to thing (less the shift of 70% or whatever of the workers pay, being diverted from their pocket to the top 7%) defaults are discounted?

Heather 22 🇺🇸 † 🪽🍵🌴↙️↗️🍔 的头像
Heather 22 🇺🇸 † 🪽🍵🌴↙️↗️🍔2 天前

Wow.

Wide Awake 的头像
Wide Awake2 天前

Totally agree. I am in the Gulf, and I was counting on buying big when GCC stocks started crashing when hostilities commenced. They didn't. (In fact the Saudi market (TASI) actually rallied.) Never put all your eggs in one basket, and never assume the market HAS to do something.

Nobody Anywhere 的头像
Nobody Anywhere2 天前

Life's experiences have an affect of changing us more than we realise at the time.

RetiredBroker 的头像
RetiredBroker2 天前

Don't fight the Fed

siu hong lam 的头像
siu hong lam2 天前

and should ask what if I am wrong

Hershal Rao 的头像
Hershal Rao2 天前

bro left us on a cliffhanger in 1982

Bartek 的头像
Bartek2 天前

Wise words as always.

REQUIEM 的头像
REQUIEM2 天前

This time let's change the equation. Remove the power of the Feds to print money.

Brad Wilson 的头像
Brad Wilson2 天前

This was a first:

ROBMAN 的头像
ROBMAN2 天前

Oh my gosh Tony SHUT UP and let the man talk

stark0xbt 的头像
stark0xbt2 天前

losing the bet taught him something winning never could🤑

Mike Gellner 🥃 4F’N SENATE 的头像
Mike Gellner 🥃 4F’N SENATE2 天前

History has never repeated. It might rhyme, but we still can’t step into the same river twice.

MorningEdge 的头像
MorningEdge2 天前

That’s rough, but gotta respect the honesty here.

analyzeportfolio 的头像
analyzeportfolio2 天前

The S&P 500 bottomed that same month, at 102.42 on August 12, 1982. By March 1987 it was above 300.

Freya feng 的头像
Freya feng2 天前

mark

Jehanzeb Nawaz 的头像
Jehanzeb Nawaz2 天前

I try to learn a lot from you. You have always been a great source of knowledge.

LetsGetToTheTruth 的头像
LetsGetToTheTruth2 天前

Ray Dalio being publicly wrong and losing everything before rebuilding is one of the more humbling stories in finance honestly. His story alongside @JasonColelfod's take on risk management both remind me why humility beats conviction every single time. Moving from being right to asking how do I know I'm right changes everything.

Thomas Bailey 的头像
Thomas Bailey2 天前

Wow, that's a powerful reminder of how history repeats itself in finance. It's crazy how far-reaching those decisions can be!

THERE IS A TRUTH 的头像
THERE IS A TRUTH2 天前

Principle of the Day. “If a relationship requires you to validate someone else’s delusion(s), it is a bad investment of your finite time.”

matabe 的头像
matabe2 天前

After this, your resurrection is highly admirable! I also learned the most valuable lessons when it really hurt.

Jonathan B. Seltzer 的头像
Jonathan B. Seltzer2 天前

Nothing is repeated.

Maya 的头像
Maya2 天前

Right about the crisis, wrong about the market. That switch from 'I'm right' to 'how do I know I'm right' says it all.

TheBigDeal 的头像
TheBigDeal2 天前

You bet against America. Never bet against America, Mr Dalio.

相关视频

In 1979, I was so broke that I had to borrow $4,000 from my Dad to help take care of my family. I had calculated that American banks had lent much more money to foreign countries than they would be able to pay back, and anticipated an imminent debt crisis. But I couldn’t have been more wrong. I didn’t fully understand the impacts of quantitative easing, and so I lost money for myself and I lost money for my clients. Looking back, it was the most painful experience I could imagine — but it was also the best thing that ever happened to me, because it taught me humility.
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⭐️: I honestly spent so much time thinking about it. At first, I kept wondering if it was the right choice. Every time I looked in the mirror, it felt unfamiliar and a little awkward. And I think there are certain shades of blonde that suit me, and others that just don’t feel like me. But I really, really thought about it a lot. On top of that, there were times when I was out and about and had to deal with some not-so-great reactions because of it, so I had a lot of worries. I kept going back and forth in my head. When I wore that outfit for the music show performance, I actually couldn’t sleep at all the night before. I had so many thoughts and worries that I was basically fighting with myself. My mood was really bad that day. But even though my body felt like it weighed a ton, I dragged myself to the music show and did it. And while I was there, I was still battling with myself, thinking, “Is this really right? Am I just too stuck in my own perspective to see it clearly? Maybe I’m the only one who doesn’t get it.” But at the same time, I kept telling myself, “We already filmed the music video like this. This is something I have to commit to.” So I went on stage. I was honestly feeling really down that day. I had almost no confidence in myself. But later on, seeing that so many people understood it and liked it made me realise that maybe it wasn’t completely the wrong choice after all. That said, my favourite hairstyle on myself is still black hair. So today, I got my hair and makeup done, looked in the mirror, and thought, “I need to go live.” So here I am.
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⭐️: I honestly spent so much time thinking about it. At first, I kept wondering if it was the right choice. Every time I looked in the mirror, it felt unfamiliar and a little awkward. And I think there are certain shades of blonde that suit me, and others that just don’t feel like me. But I really, really thought about it a lot. On top of that, there were times when I was out and about and had to deal with some not-so-great reactions because of it, so I had a lot of worries. I kept going back and forth in my head. When I wore that outfit for the music show performance, I actually couldn’t sleep at all the night before. I had so many thoughts and worries that I was basically fighting with myself. My mood was really bad that day. But even though my body felt like it weighed a ton, I dragged myself to the music show and did it. And while I was there, I was still battling with myself, thinking, “Is this really right? Am I just too stuck in my own perspective to see it clearly? Maybe I’m the only one who doesn’t get it.” But at the same time, I kept telling myself, “We already filmed the music video like this. This is something I have to commit to.” So I went on stage. I was honestly feeling really down that day. I had almost no confidence in myself. But later on, seeing that so many people understood it and liked it made me realise that maybe it wasn’t completely the wrong choice after all. That said, my favourite hairstyle on myself is still black hair. So today, I got my hair and makeup done, looked in the mirror, and thought, “I need to go live.” So here I am.

Hwanakin

16,763 次观看 • 2 个月前

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3:50

Nia Long reveals her relationship with her children’s fathers is in a good place, saying she’s past the hump and has forgiven because she didn’t want to go to the dark side of separation. She also says the Ime Udoka scandal was the best thing that ever happened to her because it allowed her to reflect on all the wonderful things she had done throughout the relationship. “It was the best thing that ever happened to me because it allowed me to pause. It allowed me to pause and look at all the wonderful things that I had done throughout the time that I was in that relationship. But now I can pour everything back into myself. So it's not about him. It wasn't about the headlines. It wasn't about the opinions. It wasn't about the trash ass assistant. It wasn't about any of that. It was about how do I preserve what's left and the new way my family is now Like, who are we now? Cos I could just walk away and never talk to you ever again and how does that affect my son? No, I'm not going to do that. But I'm going to also be forgiving and be your friend. And that's good. That's healthy.”

Heron

219,585 次观看 • 2 个月前

🦊 i finished wrapping up first my solo recently and as words from people around me started influencing me, it really stressed me out and it really started swaying my identity as a person…i was really burnt out for 3 months 🦊 i used to be someone that told people everything when i was going through a hard time like “i’m going through a tough time right now” but i don’t know when it started, but i couldn’t get myself to tell people around me anymore 👤 i wonder why? was it out of consideration for them? 🦊 that could be why…and i also felt like i needed to learn how to overcome things myself 🦊 i didn’t say anything to anyone and was going through it myself…then i thought about namjoon hyung so i went to him and asked him a lot of questions and one of the things he said to me was that he hopes i face the things that make me uncomfortable 🦊 i had conflicts with soobin and we had awkward phases but i wanted to erase all of these things one by one and i feel like there were also a lot of things that i had been misunderstanding, coming to think of it now…so i went up to soobin first and said “hey, let’s go get a drink”
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🦊 i finished wrapping up first my solo recently and as words from people around me started influencing me, it really stressed me out and it really started swaying my identity as a person…i was really burnt out for 3 months 🦊 i used to be someone that told people everything when i was going through a hard time like “i’m going through a tough time right now” but i don’t know when it started, but i couldn’t get myself to tell people around me anymore 👤 i wonder why? was it out of consideration for them? 🦊 that could be why…and i also felt like i needed to learn how to overcome things myself 🦊 i didn’t say anything to anyone and was going through it myself…then i thought about namjoon hyung so i went to him and asked him a lot of questions and one of the things he said to me was that he hopes i face the things that make me uncomfortable 🦊 i had conflicts with soobin and we had awkward phases but i wanted to erase all of these things one by one and i feel like there were also a lot of things that i had been misunderstanding, coming to think of it now…so i went up to soobin first and said “hey, let’s go get a drink”

💬

1,065,135 次观看 • 5 个月前

Oh now it makes sense [2026.txt] Q. What kind of regrets did you have? 🦊 While working on the album, there were times when I had differences in opinion with the company, and what I hated most was starting to doubt myself. When I felt like I was losing confidence and thinking, "Was I wrong?" Even though deep down, I still believed I was right. But as my certainty in myself kept fading, it felt like the confidence I had built up was slowly shrinking too. That was something I regretted. Today’s live (Taking the shirt off story) 🦊 i really didn’t have any plans of doing it until the rehearsals 🦊 why I did it was…before going on stage, the staff said “yeonjun, today is the last day so do everything and do whatever you want” so the sadness and frustration i had at the end of ‘no labels: part 01’ suddenly exploded from within me so i was like “yeah, i’m going to vent my spite today” and decided to take it off right before the performance 🦊 so that’s what happened…because i had a lot of pent up frustration against the company
0:51

Oh now it makes sense [2026.txt] Q. What kind of regrets did you have? 🦊 While working on the album, there were times when I had differences in opinion with the company, and what I hated most was starting to doubt myself. When I felt like I was losing confidence and thinking, "Was I wrong?" Even though deep down, I still believed I was right. But as my certainty in myself kept fading, it felt like the confidence I had built up was slowly shrinking too. That was something I regretted. Today’s live (Taking the shirt off story) 🦊 i really didn’t have any plans of doing it until the rehearsals 🦊 why I did it was…before going on stage, the staff said “yeonjun, today is the last day so do everything and do whatever you want” so the sadness and frustration i had at the end of ‘no labels: part 01’ suddenly exploded from within me so i was like “yeah, i’m going to vent my spite today” and decided to take it off right before the performance 🦊 so that’s what happened…because i had a lot of pent up frustration against the company

Sara

87,967 次观看 • 6 个月前

Madison Beer reflects on her iconic “I was supposed to be in the video” meme: “It really was that serious. But you have to realize that back then it was not received well. People were hating on me and ripping me apart for it and saying I was the cringiest person alive. Like, why would I lie about it? The truth is, I was just overly excited about it. I was surrounded by fans who were being so sweet and supportive. thank u, next had just come out and I thought I was spilling tea. I was so mad about people calling me a liar that i thought about providing proof multiple times, but it was a good learning curve for me to ignore everyone’s opinions.”
1:18

Madison Beer reflects on her iconic “I was supposed to be in the video” meme: “It really was that serious. But you have to realize that back then it was not received well. People were hating on me and ripping me apart for it and saying I was the cringiest person alive. Like, why would I lie about it? The truth is, I was just overly excited about it. I was surrounded by fans who were being so sweet and supportive. thank u, next had just come out and I thought I was spilling tea. I was so mad about people calling me a liar that i thought about providing proof multiple times, but it was a good learning curve for me to ignore everyone’s opinions.”

Madison Beer News

77,202 次观看 • 4 个月前

Jim Parsons admits he spent the first nine years of The Big Bang Theory completely miserable and trapped in obsessive OCD, declaring he wouldn't repeat it for any amount of money "I was sober for nine years filming Big Bang, and I look back now and realize that at some of the best moments of my life, I was miserable. I was not happy, I was stressed, and I felt like there were so many plates I was supposed to be keeping in the air." "I thought the success and the good things happening were only due to this overworking discipline. But I made myself miserable, and I wouldn't do that again for any amount of money." "It translated in part into a work ethic, but it was really just obsessive behavior. It was kind of OCD in nature. I had a list of things in my head that I had to get done in order to be comfortable and know that I could do my job right" "And that came at the detriment of friends, family, and missing tons of life."
1:48

Jim Parsons admits he spent the first nine years of The Big Bang Theory completely miserable and trapped in obsessive OCD, declaring he wouldn't repeat it for any amount of money "I was sober for nine years filming Big Bang, and I look back now and realize that at some of the best moments of my life, I was miserable. I was not happy, I was stressed, and I felt like there were so many plates I was supposed to be keeping in the air." "I thought the success and the good things happening were only due to this overworking discipline. But I made myself miserable, and I wouldn't do that again for any amount of money." "It translated in part into a work ethic, but it was really just obsessive behavior. It was kind of OCD in nature. I had a list of things in my head that I had to get done in order to be comfortable and know that I could do my job right" "And that came at the detriment of friends, family, and missing tons of life."

JayJay⛓️

772,953 次观看 • 26 天前

"That pussy Adam Cole broke his ankle like the complete dork that he is." MJF talks about the revisionist history of his story with Adam Cole "Here's what happened. At the time, and this is just a fact, we were the highest minute-for-minute drawing angle, not just in AEW, but in all of professional wrestling at that point. We were moving the most merch in the company. At that point, and was to no fault, Bloodline's going to go down as one of the greatest long-term thing, but at that point there was a bit of lull in their story at that point in 2023, and we had taken lead and Better Than You, Baby is what everybody was talking about and then that pussy Adam Cole broke his ankle like the complete dork that he is and then he decided to turn on me because he's a horrible human being. But I learned a lot in that in that year I learned a lot about myself you know when I when I was out—full disclosure I was in a very dark place." I also asked about the injuries he had suffered "It was my hip, my left shoulder; my last two pay-per-view matches—pretty much the left side of my body was useless. But I wasn't going to tell the doctors that because that's not how I was brought up. In not just in real life, but in this business. When I had that time off, I had a lot of time to reflect and it made me angry. Now I look back on it and I shouldn't have been angry at the fans. Who I should have been angry was that myself. Because I went from being, ‘MJF is the best thing since sliced bread,’ and within a flip of a switch, ‘It's MJF sucks. He's killing this company that we love.’ It took, if we're being honest, it took all the way into like the first month of this year of 2025 for everybody to be like, ‘Maybe we were harsh. Maybe he's actually still one of the best in the world. They can't help it. But I know why. It's because nobody likes a braggart. But the unfortunate thing is I can't help myself. I'm just really good at my job and I can't help but talk about it."
3:40

"That pussy Adam Cole broke his ankle like the complete dork that he is." MJF talks about the revisionist history of his story with Adam Cole "Here's what happened. At the time, and this is just a fact, we were the highest minute-for-minute drawing angle, not just in AEW, but in all of professional wrestling at that point. We were moving the most merch in the company. At that point, and was to no fault, Bloodline's going to go down as one of the greatest long-term thing, but at that point there was a bit of lull in their story at that point in 2023, and we had taken lead and Better Than You, Baby is what everybody was talking about and then that pussy Adam Cole broke his ankle like the complete dork that he is and then he decided to turn on me because he's a horrible human being. But I learned a lot in that in that year I learned a lot about myself you know when I when I was out—full disclosure I was in a very dark place." I also asked about the injuries he had suffered "It was my hip, my left shoulder; my last two pay-per-view matches—pretty much the left side of my body was useless. But I wasn't going to tell the doctors that because that's not how I was brought up. In not just in real life, but in this business. When I had that time off, I had a lot of time to reflect and it made me angry. Now I look back on it and I shouldn't have been angry at the fans. Who I should have been angry was that myself. Because I went from being, ‘MJF is the best thing since sliced bread,’ and within a flip of a switch, ‘It's MJF sucks. He's killing this company that we love.’ It took, if we're being honest, it took all the way into like the first month of this year of 2025 for everybody to be like, ‘Maybe we were harsh. Maybe he's actually still one of the best in the world. They can't help it. But I know why. It's because nobody likes a braggart. But the unfortunate thing is I can't help myself. I'm just really good at my job and I can't help but talk about it."

Sean Ross Sapp of Fightful.com

36,450 次观看 • 9 个月前

Von Miller reveals after Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman suspended him, he packed everything he owned into his truck and started driving to Florida to transfer, when he called his he dad told him not to quit, so he turned around and led the nation with 17.5 sacks the next season “I had everything I owned in this blanket, and I went to my car. I threw it in the back and I’m driving home. I called my daddy. I’m like, ‘Daddy, man, I’m leaving. Coach Sherman kicked me off the team. I ain’t coming back until I do this and that.’” “I’m thinking my dad is going, ‘All right, we’re going to find something else.’ He said, ‘Pull that truck over, turn around, and go back to school. You’re not quitting.’” “I was like, ‘That was not the answer I was looking for.’ He was like, ‘You’re not just about to quit when it gets hard. You’re going to turn that truck back around. You’re going to go back to school and you’re going to fix it.’” “I had tears going down my face. I was like, ‘Man, this is going to be so hard to fix all of this.’ I turned around. We had a meeting. Coach Sherman told my dad the exact same thing that he told me, and my dad agreed with Coach Sherman.” “There was nowhere I could go. I just had to face the music. I had to face the truth. That spring was a hard one, but I got my grades up. I made it to all my classes. I went through the checklist of everything Coach Sherman wanted me to do.” “That following year, my junior year, was the best year that I had up until that day. I led the nation in sacks. I had 17 and a half sacks. My life had totally changed. That was all a testament to running straight through the storm. The shortest way through the storm is straight. I put my head down and I worked, and my life totally changed that offseason.”
3:20

Von Miller reveals after Texas A&M coach Mike Sherman suspended him, he packed everything he owned into his truck and started driving to Florida to transfer, when he called his he dad told him not to quit, so he turned around and led the nation with 17.5 sacks the next season “I had everything I owned in this blanket, and I went to my car. I threw it in the back and I’m driving home. I called my daddy. I’m like, ‘Daddy, man, I’m leaving. Coach Sherman kicked me off the team. I ain’t coming back until I do this and that.’” “I’m thinking my dad is going, ‘All right, we’re going to find something else.’ He said, ‘Pull that truck over, turn around, and go back to school. You’re not quitting.’” “I was like, ‘That was not the answer I was looking for.’ He was like, ‘You’re not just about to quit when it gets hard. You’re going to turn that truck back around. You’re going to go back to school and you’re going to fix it.’” “I had tears going down my face. I was like, ‘Man, this is going to be so hard to fix all of this.’ I turned around. We had a meeting. Coach Sherman told my dad the exact same thing that he told me, and my dad agreed with Coach Sherman.” “There was nowhere I could go. I just had to face the music. I had to face the truth. That spring was a hard one, but I got my grades up. I made it to all my classes. I went through the checklist of everything Coach Sherman wanted me to do.” “That following year, my junior year, was the best year that I had up until that day. I led the nation in sacks. I had 17 and a half sacks. My life had totally changed. That was all a testament to running straight through the storm. The shortest way through the storm is straight. I put my head down and I worked, and my life totally changed that offseason.”

Josh Chambers

3,959,023 次观看 • 27 天前

Michael Vick says he had $13,000,000 in the bank but still had the hood in him when he got involved in dog fighting “I had $13 million in the bank when I was 25 or 26 years old and didn't know what to do with it” “I went to Arther Blank, I said ‘I don't know what to do with this money. I got everything I want, every car, every house, and there's more coming. I got to protect this now. Introduce me to some people and help me grow this’” “We had a sit down, but it was just a little too late. They took everything from me. That came from my play. I saved everything. I might have spent maybe liquid $2 million” “That had nothing to do with any of my friends. I grew up under that. I grew up seeing that, grew up watching it. I still had the hood in me” “Nobody ever went to prison though. I didn't go to prison for that. I went to prison for interstate commerce. That’s water under the bridge”
2:21

Michael Vick says he had $13,000,000 in the bank but still had the hood in him when he got involved in dog fighting “I had $13 million in the bank when I was 25 or 26 years old and didn't know what to do with it” “I went to Arther Blank, I said ‘I don't know what to do with this money. I got everything I want, every car, every house, and there's more coming. I got to protect this now. Introduce me to some people and help me grow this’” “We had a sit down, but it was just a little too late. They took everything from me. That came from my play. I saved everything. I might have spent maybe liquid $2 million” “That had nothing to do with any of my friends. I grew up under that. I grew up seeing that, grew up watching it. I still had the hood in me” “Nobody ever went to prison though. I didn't go to prison for that. I went to prison for interstate commerce. That’s water under the bridge”

dank

3,105,752 次观看 • 3 个月前