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Ex Google CEO Eric Schmidt on AGI timeline. San Francisco Consensus thinks "within 2 to 3 more cranks, with each crank being around 18 months, you get to AGI. They define AGI as an intelligence greater than sum of all human intelligence" max 4.5 yrs

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Rohan Paul

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154,268 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Eric Schmidt believes we are entering a new epoch, comparable to the Enlightenment. Just as humans shifted from faith to reasoning, we are now facing non-human intelligence with superior reasoning skills. This rise of AGI and superintelligence will happen faster than most people expect.
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Eric Schmidt, ex CEO of Google, says: - infinite context window - Agents - text to action Are coming this year! Oh, and btw: he also says within his lifetime (he is 70) will replace all programmers in the world. So yeah, AGI 2025 feels pretty safe to assume.
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AGI risk seems lower than it is because the people who know that AGI risk exists are almost all incentivized against talking about it openly. I just made a YouTube video about this that (I think) explains why. Broadly, there are two groups of people not talking about AGI risk: -- People who know AGI risk is real (i.e. AGI lab leaders) -- People who know nothing about AGI risk (i.e. politicians, citizens) To catalyze wide scale discourse about AGI risk, I argue that the following two strategies are strong candidates: 1. [Bottom-Up] Get Citizens Concerned: Find ways to meld AGI risk narratives into legacy media and more understandable political talking points which are already in the Overton window. This work is bound to be messy, and to ultimately soil the core of the message with left-right political gunk, but (barring an AI disaster) its likely the only way that AGI risk catches on with enough of a core base of citizens. As I explain in the video essay, the citizens are the lynchpin to getting everyone (those who don’t know, and those who know) to discuss AGI risk more frankly. 2. [Top-Down] Get a Losing AGI Lab Leader to “Flip”: Those closest to achieving AGI are not going to flip and start talking about AGI risk, the rewards are too great. But those who are losing the race (and don’t want to live to see their rivals achieve the final flex before them) might be able to feign virtue by claiming “Now I see AGI is dangerous, I’m a concerned expert and this needs to be regulated!” They can cloak themselves in pretended virtue while also preventing a rival from crossing the finish line first. I argue that hoping for more Jeff Hintons and Daniel Kokotajlo-like people isn't a good strategy when the incentives are still structured to keep most of them from wanting to talk about it. Here’s the full video essay:
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AGI risk seems lower than it is because the people who know that AGI risk exists are almost all incentivized against talking about it openly. I just made a YouTube video about this that (I think) explains why. Broadly, there are two groups of people not talking about AGI risk: -- People who know AGI risk is real (i.e. AGI lab leaders) -- People who know nothing about AGI risk (i.e. politicians, citizens) To catalyze wide scale discourse about AGI risk, I argue that the following two strategies are strong candidates: 1. [Bottom-Up] Get Citizens Concerned: Find ways to meld AGI risk narratives into legacy media and more understandable political talking points which are already in the Overton window. This work is bound to be messy, and to ultimately soil the core of the message with left-right political gunk, but (barring an AI disaster) its likely the only way that AGI risk catches on with enough of a core base of citizens. As I explain in the video essay, the citizens are the lynchpin to getting everyone (those who don’t know, and those who know) to discuss AGI risk more frankly. 2. [Top-Down] Get a Losing AGI Lab Leader to “Flip”: Those closest to achieving AGI are not going to flip and start talking about AGI risk, the rewards are too great. But those who are losing the race (and don’t want to live to see their rivals achieve the final flex before them) might be able to feign virtue by claiming “Now I see AGI is dangerous, I’m a concerned expert and this needs to be regulated!” They can cloak themselves in pretended virtue while also preventing a rival from crossing the finish line first. I argue that hoping for more Jeff Hintons and Daniel Kokotajlo-like people isn't a good strategy when the incentives are still structured to keep most of them from wanting to talk about it. Here’s the full video essay:

Daniel Faggella

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this was the most important bit of the ilya interview imo. humans are not AGI, and LLMs won’t become like humans with more scaling. humans lack a huge amount of knowledge and have insanely good “continual learning” powered by extremely good reward functions (except for addiction) that guide them. and so it’s more about the learning rather than knowledge. the term AGI was coined as a response to the narrow AI which was only capable of intelligence in a specific domain (chess, game, code, etc) but General intelligence is able to learn different topics because that’s what “learning” is about. pre-training was thought to be the solution to reaching AGI because you train AI on so many different topics. but they have “overshot” that target. amazing perspective.
1:57

this was the most important bit of the ilya interview imo. humans are not AGI, and LLMs won’t become like humans with more scaling. humans lack a huge amount of knowledge and have insanely good “continual learning” powered by extremely good reward functions (except for addiction) that guide them. and so it’s more about the learning rather than knowledge. the term AGI was coined as a response to the narrow AI which was only capable of intelligence in a specific domain (chess, game, code, etc) but General intelligence is able to learn different topics because that’s what “learning” is about. pre-training was thought to be the solution to reaching AGI because you train AI on so many different topics. but they have “overshot” that target. amazing perspective.

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Elon Musk: "I think we'll hit AGI next year, in '26" "I'm confident by 2030, AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined" And that's way pessimistic. If you hit AGI next year and that date is in flux but from that date to self-improvements that are on the order of 1,000 to 10,000x just algorithmic improvements... is very short So why is nobody talking about this right now? on 𝕏 they are..... everyday basically I'll tell you something that most people in the AI community don't yet understand Almost no one understands this. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we're currently experiencing
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Elon Musk: "I think we'll hit AGI next year, in '26" "I'm confident by 2030, AI will exceed the intelligence of all humans combined" And that's way pessimistic. If you hit AGI next year and that date is in flux but from that date to self-improvements that are on the order of 1,000 to 10,000x just algorithmic improvements... is very short So why is nobody talking about this right now? on 𝕏 they are..... everyday basically I'll tell you something that most people in the AI community don't yet understand Almost no one understands this. The intelligence density potential is vastly greater than what we're currently experiencing

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SAM ALTMAN: "You will graduate to a world with AGI in it" Sam Altman just told a room of college sophomores that by the time they finish school, Artificial General Intelligence will be a reality. Specifically: • Science will become increasingly automated. • What it means to start a startup or work at a company will be totally different. • A lot of traditional career advice is no longer going to work. Which is all true. My AGI timeline is actually slightly later than Sam’s - Whereas I believe it will arrive in 2029 but at that point we are grasping at straws.

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108,244 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

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Rob Wiblin

34,618 просмотров • 1 год назад