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Ex-Quant Trader (Finn Hulse) introduces Gambling 2.0: A new ecosystem primitive where your bets are against every other player In this episode, Finn introduces the Gambling 2.0 Initiative (Gambling 2.0 Initiative) and breaks down how replacing the house’s bankroll with a huge player pool inverts predatory incentives and democratizes...

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NGMI

1,023 subscribers

14,878 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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6 Kommentare

Profilbild von John Tadeusiak
John Tadeusiakvor 1 Monat

@finn_hulse @g2initiative holy finn invented gambling the sequel

Profilbild von Finn Hulse
Finn Hulsevor 1 Monat

@g2initiative one other correction: ~50 external games have been built, not >100, it’s only 100+ when u count mine (i had to check the breakdown, forgot how many i threw away while iterating) super fun podcast, stay tuned for mainnet

Profilbild von NGMI
NGMIvor 1 Monat

@g2initiative This episode is now live on YouTube

Profilbild von NGMI
NGMIvor 1 Monat

@g2initiative And on Spotify & Apple Podcasts

Profilbild von Aced
Acedvor 1 Monat

@finn_hulse @g2initiative You didn't remove the house. You swapped the bankroll and kept the pen. Whoever sets the pool still sells the one-shot.

Profilbild von NGMI
NGMIvor 1 Monat

@finn_hulse @g2initiative blocked for slop

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Matt Fitzpatrick thinks gambling is “definitely an issue” that’s affecting how fans behave at golf tournaments: “Yeah, it's a great question because you just look at all the messages people get -- footballers, tennis players, you name it, everyone's getting messages of, oh, you missed that penalty; you cost me this. Oh, you didn't make a birdie; cost me this. “I've had my fair share. I would say every golfer that's played a professional tournament has had a message of abuse from someone that is related to gambling. I mean, you could see it this week. You go and type in a player's name who maybe isn't playing well, maybe someone who's favored to play well, you type the name into Twitter and you'll just see their name followed by abuse after abuse after abuse. “It's difficult because I've had 20 quid on England to win the World Cup, but at the same time, if it doesn't come in, I'm not going to send a message to Harry Kane and be like, why did you play rubbish? There's obviously individuals that have that problem. “I don't know, obviously I don't condone gambling in the slightest. It doesn't -- it's not really for me. It's a thing that me and my mate do every World Cup and Euros, that's it. “For me, it's definitely becoming a problem and the issue is, particularly in golf, it would be very easy to influence a bet, whether it's you're shouting on someone's backswing, shouting on a putting stroke. It's really easy. Obviously that is really hard to monitor, but it is definitely an issue.” Matt Fitzpatrick The Open
1:54

Matt Fitzpatrick thinks gambling is “definitely an issue” that’s affecting how fans behave at golf tournaments: “Yeah, it's a great question because you just look at all the messages people get -- footballers, tennis players, you name it, everyone's getting messages of, oh, you missed that penalty; you cost me this. Oh, you didn't make a birdie; cost me this. “I've had my fair share. I would say every golfer that's played a professional tournament has had a message of abuse from someone that is related to gambling. I mean, you could see it this week. You go and type in a player's name who maybe isn't playing well, maybe someone who's favored to play well, you type the name into Twitter and you'll just see their name followed by abuse after abuse after abuse. “It's difficult because I've had 20 quid on England to win the World Cup, but at the same time, if it doesn't come in, I'm not going to send a message to Harry Kane and be like, why did you play rubbish? There's obviously individuals that have that problem. “I don't know, obviously I don't condone gambling in the slightest. It doesn't -- it's not really for me. It's a thing that me and my mate do every World Cup and Euros, that's it. “For me, it's definitely becoming a problem and the issue is, particularly in golf, it would be very easy to influence a bet, whether it's you're shouting on someone's backswing, shouting on a putting stroke. It's really easy. Obviously that is really hard to monitor, but it is definitely an issue.” Matt Fitzpatrick The Open

Flushing It

572,689 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

I sat down with the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi (Tarek Mansour), a prediction market reportedly worth over $20 billion. After years of struggle, Kalshi won a regulatory battle, culminating with their successful suit to overturn a CFTC decision, giving them the ability to allow consumers to bet on politics, sports, weather, and more. Tarek shared the history of how he got here and what kind of company he had to build to weather all the uncertainty. I also got a chance to push him on Kalshi’s place in the world and its potential for positive or negative impacts. I was persuaded by his arguments that it can be a big force for good. We closed out by talking about his ideas around company building, hiring, and the future of Kalshi. Hope you enjoy. Timestamps: (0:00) Intro (0:23) Kalshi’s genesis (5:05) Regulation-focused from inception (11:06) Suing the government (18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets (20:58) Defining insider trading (25:38) Incentive structure of the system (32:40) Investing vs. trading (35:31) Using Kalshi for hedging (41:38) On keeping a lean team (44:02) Kalshi’s culture
47:48

I sat down with the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi (Tarek Mansour), a prediction market reportedly worth over $20 billion. After years of struggle, Kalshi won a regulatory battle, culminating with their successful suit to overturn a CFTC decision, giving them the ability to allow consumers to bet on politics, sports, weather, and more. Tarek shared the history of how he got here and what kind of company he had to build to weather all the uncertainty. I also got a chance to push him on Kalshi’s place in the world and its potential for positive or negative impacts. I was persuaded by his arguments that it can be a big force for good. We closed out by talking about his ideas around company building, hiring, and the future of Kalshi. Hope you enjoy. Timestamps: (0:00) Intro (0:23) Kalshi’s genesis (5:05) Regulation-focused from inception (11:06) Suing the government (18:02) Gambling vs. financial markets (20:58) Defining insider trading (25:38) Incentive structure of the system (32:40) Investing vs. trading (35:31) Using Kalshi for hedging (41:38) On keeping a lean team (44:02) Kalshi’s culture

Jack Altman

41,488 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

WARREN BUFFETT JUST GAVE HIS SHARPEST MARKET WARNING IN YEARS AT THE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY SHAREHOLDER MEETING His exact words on today's market: "The market always feels like a church with a casino attached. People can move between the church and the casino. There are more people in the church and more people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive to people." "If you're buying one-day options or selling them, that is not speculating. That is gambling. Totally. There's nobody that can explain why they're buying an option for one day." "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." "That doesn't mean the thing is terrible, but it does mean that the prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly." The 95-year-old "Oracle of Omaha" is speaking today as Berkshire sits on roughly $380 billion in cash, the largest cash position in the company's history. Greg Abel is running the meeting as CEO for the first time. When asked what would create a juicy investment opportunity for him, Buffett's answer: "It's a phone call in some cases."
5:06

WARREN BUFFETT JUST GAVE HIS SHARPEST MARKET WARNING IN YEARS AT THE BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY SHAREHOLDER MEETING His exact words on today's market: "The market always feels like a church with a casino attached. People can move between the church and the casino. There are more people in the church and more people in the casino, but the casino has gotten very attractive to people." "If you're buying one-day options or selling them, that is not speculating. That is gambling. Totally. There's nobody that can explain why they're buying an option for one day." "We've never had people in a more gambling mood than now." "That doesn't mean the thing is terrible, but it does mean that the prices for an awful lot of things will look very silly." The 95-year-old "Oracle of Omaha" is speaking today as Berkshire sits on roughly $380 billion in cash, the largest cash position in the company's history. Greg Abel is running the meeting as CEO for the first time. When asked what would create a juicy investment opportunity for him, Buffett's answer: "It's a phone call in some cases."

FSMN

889,955 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Trainwrecks gambles with what is effectively fake money, and his entire streaming operation is a scam. If you are watching it, you're not watching real risk being taken. It's fake, and he's not risking anything meaningful. He sort of admits it in this clip from today, but I will elaborate a bit more, including responding to some of the points he made in the past. 1. Receipts aren't our business? You made it our business Of course, if this were personal financial records or your secret data, it would be no one's business. But you've made it our business by claiming you're transparent, claiming you show receipts, publicly claiming all the funds are legit. You can't have it both ways; you can't both claim transparency and back away from showing any real proof when closely interrogated. We dug into the receipts, and there are none You claim you show every withdrawal, but that's not true. There are transactions here and there for pennies, a few thousand being sent to giveaway winners, but there's not a single high value 10m+ transaction on the blockchain. No high value transaction being withdrawn or deposited in real time from or to Stake. There should be plenty if your deal is 20m a month, right? Where's the money? Where are the actual receipts? You offered, so please send them. 2. Manipulator and virtue signaler On many points you are a manipulator. (1) You claim there is a big security risk and that your life is at risk if you show withdrawals, when you've already stated your deal amount publicly and you gamble those very same amounts publicly. It's no secret that you have crypto. The only legitimate reason to not show proof is fear of getting caught or not having the proof in the first place. (2) You virtue signal about "never gamble" while being the biggest gambling promoter, causing tens of thousands of new people to gamble on destructive high house-edge slots. (3) You claim benevolence due to not shilling a referral code, but it's well known within the industry that shilling without a referral code actually boosts profits, due to the non-commercial and authentic feel of the promotion, leading to more overall revenue, and your upside is baked into your existing fee or a backend deal. Even in a hypothetical world where we concede the fake-balance point and assume it's raw, the balance is still fake We have clear contentions around whether the money is real or not, and no real proof has been shown. But even IF the money shown is real, the deal is still fake, for a more nuanced reason. The deal structure inherently forces you to gamble. That is not raw money in the sense that you can withdraw it or spend it on goods or services (what money is supposed to be); it's money that can only be spent gambling on Stake, which by definition makes it fake balance. You are big in the gambling world, but in the grand scheme of things you are small-time. We have looked at term sheets for Clavicular, Kanye, Andrew Tate, and even some bigger names that would surprise you. We know how the pricing works. Yet you publicly claim your payment is over 25 million a month, which is more than the price of any streamer, any politician, any celebrity we have ever encountered. We don't think this is real, but even if it is, the only way it can be is if the deal forces you to return most of the money to Stake, allowing them to recover most of the EV of what they pay you while getting tons and tons of gambling content out of it. 3. Fake gambling through forced rotation/wagering of money This essentially turns you into a giga gooner RTP simulator + content machine: you get paid 25m or more every month in money that you can't spend on a house or a car; it has to go towards gambling, so you wager it, lose in the long run, wager billions, Stake gets their content hours, and the viewers get the illusion of you constantly hitting big wins. The big-win clips are amplified massively, leading people to the biased illusion that they too can win big, while the constant drawn-out losses that happen the rest of the time are never tallied up or shown to most. This is evidenced by your wager count, which is between 10b and 20b, much higher than any real-money gambling streamer, with an expected loss in the hundreds of millions. Put more simply, the money is fake because if you didn't gamble it, Stake wouldn't give it to you; the deal would evaporate and the money would never be in your pocket, hence nonexistent.
0:24

Trainwrecks gambles with what is effectively fake money, and his entire streaming operation is a scam. If you are watching it, you're not watching real risk being taken. It's fake, and he's not risking anything meaningful. He sort of admits it in this clip from today, but I will elaborate a bit more, including responding to some of the points he made in the past. 1. Receipts aren't our business? You made it our business Of course, if this were personal financial records or your secret data, it would be no one's business. But you've made it our business by claiming you're transparent, claiming you show receipts, publicly claiming all the funds are legit. You can't have it both ways; you can't both claim transparency and back away from showing any real proof when closely interrogated. We dug into the receipts, and there are none You claim you show every withdrawal, but that's not true. There are transactions here and there for pennies, a few thousand being sent to giveaway winners, but there's not a single high value 10m+ transaction on the blockchain. No high value transaction being withdrawn or deposited in real time from or to Stake. There should be plenty if your deal is 20m a month, right? Where's the money? Where are the actual receipts? You offered, so please send them. 2. Manipulator and virtue signaler On many points you are a manipulator. (1) You claim there is a big security risk and that your life is at risk if you show withdrawals, when you've already stated your deal amount publicly and you gamble those very same amounts publicly. It's no secret that you have crypto. The only legitimate reason to not show proof is fear of getting caught or not having the proof in the first place. (2) You virtue signal about "never gamble" while being the biggest gambling promoter, causing tens of thousands of new people to gamble on destructive high house-edge slots. (3) You claim benevolence due to not shilling a referral code, but it's well known within the industry that shilling without a referral code actually boosts profits, due to the non-commercial and authentic feel of the promotion, leading to more overall revenue, and your upside is baked into your existing fee or a backend deal. Even in a hypothetical world where we concede the fake-balance point and assume it's raw, the balance is still fake We have clear contentions around whether the money is real or not, and no real proof has been shown. But even IF the money shown is real, the deal is still fake, for a more nuanced reason. The deal structure inherently forces you to gamble. That is not raw money in the sense that you can withdraw it or spend it on goods or services (what money is supposed to be); it's money that can only be spent gambling on Stake, which by definition makes it fake balance. You are big in the gambling world, but in the grand scheme of things you are small-time. We have looked at term sheets for Clavicular, Kanye, Andrew Tate, and even some bigger names that would surprise you. We know how the pricing works. Yet you publicly claim your payment is over 25 million a month, which is more than the price of any streamer, any politician, any celebrity we have ever encountered. We don't think this is real, but even if it is, the only way it can be is if the deal forces you to return most of the money to Stake, allowing them to recover most of the EV of what they pay you while getting tons and tons of gambling content out of it. 3. Fake gambling through forced rotation/wagering of money This essentially turns you into a giga gooner RTP simulator + content machine: you get paid 25m or more every month in money that you can't spend on a house or a car; it has to go towards gambling, so you wager it, lose in the long run, wager billions, Stake gets their content hours, and the viewers get the illusion of you constantly hitting big wins. The big-win clips are amplified massively, leading people to the biased illusion that they too can win big, while the constant drawn-out losses that happen the rest of the time are never tallied up or shown to most. This is evidenced by your wager count, which is between 10b and 20b, much higher than any real-money gambling streamer, with an expected loss in the hundreds of millions. Put more simply, the money is fake because if you didn't gamble it, Stake wouldn't give it to you; the deal would evaporate and the money would never be in your pocket, hence nonexistent.

Korra

38,323 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Q&A Questions 👇👇 Question #1 1:10 “Do you spend more time on Edge than what you used to with Oddsjam? And is there something you miss or something you had with Oddsjam?” Question #2 3:06 “What makes EdgeZone different than Oddsjam? Are you showing how to develop models on our own or just showing us yours? What's the latest ROI and W-L using EdgeZone? Any discounts or free trials for Black Friday?” Question #3 11:03 “How do you determine / plan your diversity of bets between arbs, EV, middles, sharp money, etc” Question #4 14:10 “Which books to hammer pregame vs which to stay away? When to bet player props vs main lines, etc. how to keep accounts from being limited, they all will at some point but how to make them last” Question #5 17:07 “When did you decide to move on from strictly arbitrage to move EV and model based bets, and how has the move been?” Question #6 21:12 “What’s the best advice you have for people who play DFS and struggle with the ups and downs of variance? My followers would appreciate this.🤝” Question #7 23:56 “Detecting first mover books vs insanely good EV spot? Even if you don’t get to it man, I know I’m still going to learn a ton from the video you drop. Thanks x as always!” Question #8 27:21 “Definitive answer (or reason for each) on which bet to place first. Have heard very reputable people say both sides.” Question #9 30:23 “Is onyx odds still good for a fresh account?” Question #10 30:55 “P2s and beyond ins and out.what will get u busted and what won't. How much can u milk out of each account and what landmines to avoid.” Question #11 32:33 “With the gambling deduction changes in the Big Beautiful Bill coming in 2026, are Edge Zone, Odds Jam, etc. still worthwhile?” Question #12 33:56 “(1) Thoughts on prediction market arbitrage/positive EV? 2nd question if you have time ⬇️ (2) Less EV/Arb opportunities next year with less sharps betting with the new gambling tax law? Thanks brotha!” Question #13 36:46 “Assuming you have P2's, how do you decide on the arrangement with the P2's? Do you do a % of profits, flat fee? And what's a normal amount of compensation? I'm at the crossroads of needing a new P2 as my current P2 is pretty limited and trying to figure out what to offer”
39:43

Q&A Questions 👇👇 Question #1 1:10 “Do you spend more time on Edge than what you used to with Oddsjam? And is there something you miss or something you had with Oddsjam?” Question #2 3:06 “What makes EdgeZone different than Oddsjam? Are you showing how to develop models on our own or just showing us yours? What's the latest ROI and W-L using EdgeZone? Any discounts or free trials for Black Friday?” Question #3 11:03 “How do you determine / plan your diversity of bets between arbs, EV, middles, sharp money, etc” Question #4 14:10 “Which books to hammer pregame vs which to stay away? When to bet player props vs main lines, etc. how to keep accounts from being limited, they all will at some point but how to make them last” Question #5 17:07 “When did you decide to move on from strictly arbitrage to move EV and model based bets, and how has the move been?” Question #6 21:12 “What’s the best advice you have for people who play DFS and struggle with the ups and downs of variance? My followers would appreciate this.🤝” Question #7 23:56 “Detecting first mover books vs insanely good EV spot? Even if you don’t get to it man, I know I’m still going to learn a ton from the video you drop. Thanks x as always!” Question #8 27:21 “Definitive answer (or reason for each) on which bet to place first. Have heard very reputable people say both sides.” Question #9 30:23 “Is onyx odds still good for a fresh account?” Question #10 30:55 “P2s and beyond ins and out.what will get u busted and what won't. How much can u milk out of each account and what landmines to avoid.” Question #11 32:33 “With the gambling deduction changes in the Big Beautiful Bill coming in 2026, are Edge Zone, Odds Jam, etc. still worthwhile?” Question #12 33:56 “(1) Thoughts on prediction market arbitrage/positive EV? 2nd question if you have time ⬇️ (2) Less EV/Arb opportunities next year with less sharps betting with the new gambling tax law? Thanks brotha!” Question #13 36:46 “Assuming you have P2's, how do you decide on the arrangement with the P2's? Do you do a % of profits, flat fee? And what's a normal amount of compensation? I'm at the crossroads of needing a new P2 as my current P2 is pretty limited and trying to figure out what to offer”

THEARBFATHER

47,710 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten