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Failed breakouts

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Jordan F

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57,828 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Qullamaggie on Situational Awareness “I guess it was an okay setup, but it failed in a big way. That was near the peak of the SPAC market. You can see why it failed, because NASDAQ pulled back. Nasdaq had a big run, multi-month run. You wanna buy breakouts when the market comes out of a multi-month sideways consolidation or a multi-month sell-off. Here, good time to buy breakouts. Here, not so much. And that's why it's failed. The setup itself was okay, but once the market is straight up for multiple months, you gotta be careful buying breakouts. The setups themselves were okay. But the market started pulling back mid-February and everything failed. When is the best time to buy breakouts? Chat, come on. Come on, chat. When is the best time to buy breakouts? What do we want to see in the moving averages? After correction? Yeah, but the moving averages. When the 10-day is above the 20-day, yeah, more. Rising 10-day, 20-day. We want to see the 10-day above the 20-day, and both the 10-day and 20-day need to be rising. Or one of them can be sideways, but at least one of them needs to be rising. That's when you have good conditions, generally, for breakouts. In late February, the 10-day had started sloping down, the 20-day was sideways. So that was a warning sign. That you shouldn't buy breakouts. NIO, big move, pulled back to the 10-day, started building a flag and it went straight up. Why did it go straight up? Well, because the market had just come out of a multi-month correction. And that was the start of a multi-month move. And NIO had shown strength all the way. That's a good time to buy breakouts, when the market comes out of a multi-month sideways or multi-month correction. Not when the market has already run for two, three months straight up, and it's starting to lose momentum. Not a good time to buy breakouts.”
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