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Finally Bloomberg is interviewing people like George Noble to explain how the SpaceX insider unlock structure is going to crush the $SPCX stock starting in 20 days. "When you go from a 5% float to a 100% float (in 5 months).... 😬🤪"

113,651 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚨EVERYTHING IS GOING EXACTLY AS I SAID!!! It IPO'd, ripped, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now we're at $110 and the chart has already broken. And this was the easy part. Here's the full map, day by day: IPO → the top 10 days → $160 20 days → $140 NOW → $110 60 days → $90 80 days → $70 ← the bottom 100 days → $110 120 days → $200 140 days → $300 Down to $70 first. Then the reversal that makes people rich. Why the drop has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, so every passive fund was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits August 6 at Q2 earnings ~20% of insider shares go free and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to full unlock. Sit with that. This entire collapse happened on a tiny float with almost no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. That's what takes us to $70. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem - that's a SpaceX problem. Hype dead, capex enormous, valuation near 100x sales, unlock cliff dead ahead. But here's the part nobody's ready for: once that last unlock clears and the forced sellers are gone, the supply overhang disappears. That's when it reverses: $70 → $110 → $200 → $300. The bottom isn't where you panic. It's where you position. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in a few months wishing you had.

Shelpid.WI3M

238,264 次观看 • 16 天前

🚨 SPACEX IS DONE? It opened at $150, ripped to $225 in three days, and everyone called it the buy of the decade. Now it's at $145 - an all-time low, below the open, sitting a few dollars above the IPO price. Down 35% from the top. The chart isn't breaking. It already broke. And this was the easy part. Here's where it goes from here: $145 → $135 → $120 → $100 Why this has to happen the math is brutal and public: → Only ~4% of shares actually trade. Nasdaq bent the float rule just to let this listing through. → It got jammed into the indexes, and every passive fund on the planet was forced to buy near the top. → Insiders still hold 96% of the supply. → The first unlock hits on August 6 - right at Q2 earnings. About 20% of insider shares go free, and the float doubles overnight. → Then it doubles again through the fall, all the way to a full unlock. Sit with that. This entire 35% collapse happened on a tiny float, with no supply. The actual wall of stock hasn't even arrived yet. And look at the backdrop: Apple's printing new all-time highs while SPCX bleeds to fresh lows. That's not a market problem that's a SpaceX problem. The hype died, the capex is enormous, the valuation is priced at ~100x sales, and the unlock cliff is dead ahead. Everything I said would happen is happening. No surprises. The next leg is where the real money gets made but not on the long side yet. Save this. Turn on notifications. Or come back in 30 days wishing you had.

Shelpid.WI3M

355,923 次观看 • 27 天前

🚨 HERE'S WHY SPACEX IS A LIQUIDITY SCAM. Everyone sees the $SPCX pump. Almost nobody sees what is happening behind it. Only around 4% of SpaceX shares are trading. A normal public company can have over 80% available. When only 4% of supply is available, price becomes easy to push. This is the same setup we see in crypto. Tokens like LAB and RAVE use tiny float and huge locked supply. The team controls almost everything. Only a small amount reaches the market. Then scarcity pumps the chart. SpaceX is doing the same thing on a much bigger scale. And now look at who is forced to buy. $SPCX was added to MSCI indexes very quickly. That means passive funds now have to buy it. Not because they believe in Elon Musk. Because their mandate follows the index. Now connect the dots. → Massive forced demand → Only 4% of shares available → Almost no real liquidity → Price can pump HARD But the real supply is still locked. And the unlock schedule starts much earlier than people think. → First 20% after Q2 earnings → Another 7% after 70 days → Another 7% after 90 days → Another 7% after 105 days → Another 7% after 120 days → Another 7% after 135 days → Another 28% after Q3 earnings → The rest after 180 days That means early investors can start exiting in 1 to 2 months. And who will they sell to? Retail chasing the hype. Passive funds forced into the stock. Keep the float tiny. Force funds to buy. Pump the valuation toward $2 TRILLION. Then open the insider exit door. Crypto does this with low float tokens. Wall Street does it with IPOs. Different market. Same trap. Most people are watching the SpaceX dream. I’m watching who buys now and who sells later. The last buyer always pays for the dream. I’ve studied macro for 10 years and called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning BEFORE it hits the headlines.

Wimar.X

111,577 次观看 • 1 个月前

This is the most SHAMELESS structural manipulation of a major index I've ever seen. SpaceX is preparing what could be the largest IPO in history. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make it the sixth-largest company in America on day one. And Nasdaq wants the listing so badly they're literally CHANGING how the Nasdaq-100 works. In February, Nasdaq published a "consultation" proposing sweeping changes to how companies enter the index. The timing is pure coincidence, of course. Just like it's pure coincidence that SpaceX has reportedly made fast index inclusion a CONDITION of listing on Nasdaq. Here's what they're proposing: A new "Fast Entry" rule would let any newly listed company whose market cap ranks in the top 40 of current Nasdaq-100 members get added to the index after just 15 trading days. No seasoning period. No liquidity requirements. Completely exempt from the standards every other company had to meet. Currently, new public companies typically wait up to a year before they're eligible for major index inclusion. That waiting period exists for a reason. It lets the market establish real price discovery. It protects passive investors from being forced into untested, illiquid stocks. And Nasdaq wants to throw all of that out. For ONE listing. But the Fast Entry rule isn't even the worst part... The real scandal is the 5x float multiplier. Right now, the S&P 500 uses a free-float adjusted methodology. If only 5% of a company's shares are available for public trading, the index weights you at 5% of total market cap. That's common sense. You weight a company based on what investors can actually buy. Nasdaq's current methodology already uses total market cap rather than free-float for weighting. But for very low-float stocks, they at least had a 10% minimum float threshold. Under the new proposal, that threshold DISAPPEARS entirely. Instead, any stock with less than 20% free float gets weighted at FIVE TIMES its actual float percentage, capped at 100%. Do the math on SpaceX: If SpaceX IPOs at $1.75 trillion and floats 5% of its shares, there would be roughly $87.5 billion worth of stock available for public trading. Under Nasdaq's proposed 5x multiplier, the index would weight SpaceX at 25% of its total market cap. That means passive funds would be forced to buy as if SpaceX were a $437.5 billion company. But only $87.5 billion of stock actually exists in the market. You are forcing hundreds of billions in passive buying into a $87.5 billion float. QQQ alone manages nearly $400 billion. The total Nasdaq-100 ecosystem represents over $1.4 trillion in exposure across ETFs, mutual funds, structured notes, and derivatives. Every single passive vehicle tracking this index would be REQUIRED to buy SpaceX at whatever price the market dictates. On Day 15. With zero price discovery. Zero track record as a public company. And a float so thin you could read through it. So what this actually does is it creates a structural wealth transfer mechanism. The passive bid from index funds pushes the stock price higher. That higher price benefits exactly one group of people: the insiders and early investors who own the other 95% of the shares. And when lock-up periods expire 90 to 180 days later? Those insiders sell into the artificially inflated passive bid. Your 401(k) is the exit liquidity. This is the fundamental corruption of indexing. Indexing used to be brilliant. Low cost. Efficient. You were free-riding on the price discovery done by active managers. The index reflected the market. Now the index IS the market. Trillions of dollars flow blindly into whatever the index tells them to buy. And the people who control the index methodology are changing the rules to serve the interests of a single IPO candidate. The S&P 500 requires companies to have at least 50% of shares available for public trading. It requires 6 to 12 months of seasoning. It uses free-float adjusted weighting so passive investors aren't buying phantom liquidity. Nasdaq is doing the exact opposite. 15 days. No float requirement. 5x multiplier on insider-held shares. Every passive investor in QQQ, QQQM, and every fund benchmarked to the Nasdaq-100 should understand what's about to happen: The rules are being rewritten to benefit IPO issuers and early-stage insiders, and your capital is the tool being USED to enrich them. 45 years in this business and I've watched Wall Street find creative new ways to separate retail investors from their money in every cycle. But usually they at least try to be subtle about it. This one they put in a PDF and called it a "consultation." What's your take?

George Noble

869,405 次观看 • 5 个月前