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Financial markets experts are raising concerns about possible insider trading after an unusual spike in oil futures trading only minutes before President Trump announced talks with Iran on Truth Social on Monday. "It seems highly suspicious when you see a surge in volume on no news,” CBS News business...

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NAILED IT: President Trump on Truth Social: “With only bad Press and Fake News, I won the Presidential Election IN A LANDSLIDE. Therefore, the Media has NO CREDIBILITY! If it did, that Historic Win would not have been possible. I want them to gain the Respect which they have so sadly lost, and help, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP”
1:08

NAILED IT: President Trump on Truth Social: “With only bad Press and Fake News, I won the Presidential Election IN A LANDSLIDE. Therefore, the Media has NO CREDIBILITY! If it did, that Historic Win would not have been possible. I want them to gain the Respect which they have so sadly lost, and help, MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN! President DONALD J. TRUMP”

RedWave Press

34,614 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The last time we were in this room it was BOMBS AWAY on Iran, today Trump seems CONFUSED and STUCK When asked about the back and forth he says, "You know, you always have to keep your guard up." All we know now is Rubio is involved in the talks that Iran denies are happening and we have no proof are even happening. Markets don't believe a deal is possible anymore.
1:06

The last time we were in this room it was BOMBS AWAY on Iran, today Trump seems CONFUSED and STUCK When asked about the back and forth he says, "You know, you always have to keep your guard up." All we know now is Rubio is involved in the talks that Iran denies are happening and we have no proof are even happening. Markets don't believe a deal is possible anymore.

Ryan Rozbiani

21,105 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!
0:24

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Trump on Iran: They talk about the son of the shah. They talk about other people. But, you know, hasn't been there in many, many years. We have a formula that's been very good so far, and I think it will continue to be good. The relationship is extraordinary with Venezuela.
0:28

Trump on Iran: They talk about the son of the shah. They talk about other people. But, you know, hasn't been there in many, many years. We have a formula that's been very good so far, and I think it will continue to be good. The relationship is extraordinary with Venezuela.

Open Source Intel

317,404 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷: President Trump Comments on Today’s U.S. and Iran Nuclear Talks Trump: “We likewise had very good talks on Iran. Iran looks like it wants to make a deal very badly. We have to see what that deal is. But I think Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly, as they should. Last time they decided maybe not to do it, but I think they probably feel differently. We'll see what the deal is. Could it be different than last time? And we have a big armada, we have a big fleet heading in that direction, gonna be there pretty soon. So, we'll see how that works out.”
0:32

JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷: President Trump Comments on Today’s U.S. and Iran Nuclear Talks Trump: “We likewise had very good talks on Iran. Iran looks like it wants to make a deal very badly. We have to see what that deal is. But I think Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly, as they should. Last time they decided maybe not to do it, but I think they probably feel differently. We'll see what the deal is. Could it be different than last time? And we have a big armada, we have a big fleet heading in that direction, gonna be there pretty soon. So, we'll see how that works out.”

Ryan Rozbiani

16,076 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

A reporter asked the President of the United States if he was concerned about insider trading on the war in Iran. His answer: “The whole world has become somewhat of a casino.” And then: “It is what it is.” This is not what the Commander-in-Chief should say when traders are making millions on bets placed minutes before American servicemembers go into combat. $580 million in oil futures moved 16 minutes before Trump paused strikes on Iranian power plants. More than 150 Polymarket accounts bet on a US strike the Friday before the war started. Somebody knew. And the President of the United States says it is what it is. Disgraceful.
0:20

A reporter asked the President of the United States if he was concerned about insider trading on the war in Iran. His answer: “The whole world has become somewhat of a casino.” And then: “It is what it is.” This is not what the Commander-in-Chief should say when traders are making millions on bets placed minutes before American servicemembers go into combat. $580 million in oil futures moved 16 minutes before Trump paused strikes on Iranian power plants. More than 150 Polymarket accounts bet on a US strike the Friday before the war started. Somebody knew. And the President of the United States says it is what it is. Disgraceful.

Mike Levin

13,205 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

JUST IN: President Trump responds after CBS News reported that Iran is "taking steps" to deploy mines through the shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz. CBS reported that Iran has an estimated 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines. "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!" Trump said on Truth Social. "If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before." "If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!"
0:29

JUST IN: President Trump responds after CBS News reported that Iran is "taking steps" to deploy mines through the shipping lane of the Strait of Hormuz. CBS reported that Iran has an estimated 2,000 to 6,000 naval mines. "If Iran has put out any mines in the Hormuz Strait, and we have no reports of them doing so, we want them removed, IMMEDIATELY!" Trump said on Truth Social. "If for any reason mines were placed, and they are not removed forthwith, the Military consequences to Iran will be at a level never seen before." "If, on the other hand, they remove what may have been placed, it will be a giant step in the right direction!"

Collin Rugg

2,817,821 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

.President Donald J. Trump on temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea: "I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible... you have ships that are out there that are loaded up with oil. Rather than keep it there, I would rather see it go to the system. Any small amount of money that Iran gets is not going to have any difference in this war."
0:39

.President Donald J. Trump on temporarily lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea: "I just want to have as much oil in the system as possible... you have ships that are out there that are loaded up with oil. Rather than keep it there, I would rather see it go to the system. Any small amount of money that Iran gets is not going to have any difference in this war."

Rapid Response 47

132,725 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

GB News, which is not a news channel according to Ofcom, repeatedly egging on President Trump to sue the BBC - and the culture secretary Lisa Nandy does nothing because she's too busy telling lies in parliament about police advice over Maccabi - GB News, "The BBC and the defamation case. How did you feel when you first heard about it?" President Trump, "They wrote me a letter of apology" "If it's unintentional, you don't apologise, right?" "Just before this interview I hear they did it again on another program" GB News, "On Newsnight" President Trump, "I just settled with 60 minutes CBS.. But that's not as bad as what the BBC did" "One of the BBC"s competitors reported it, how they found out about it, you've got to give them credit" GB News, "And if it wasn't for The Daily Telegraph shining a light on the story" President Trump, "I assume they are enemies, they are now" GB News, "Well, they are part of the establishment media in the UK.. They were angry on your behalf" "How easy was it to pursue legal again?" President Trump, "I don't even know what percent is owned by your government" GB News, "It's funded by the British taxpayer" President Trump, "British tax payer has been a big problem with it" GB News, "The director general resigned, the head of news resigned. How far are you prepared to push it?" President Trump, "This is beyond fake, this is corrupt what they did" GB News, "As someone who understands TV, if you worked on a show where they edited something together like that" President Trump, "Who would do this?" "You worry about AI because things like this happen, but you can't imagine the BBC did this, somewhat crudely" "I couldn't believe it actually" GB News, "How far will you push it because they haven't offered you a penny in compensation" President Trump, "I think I have an obligation to do it. If you don't do it you don't stop it" "I wonder if they've done it to other people"
8:36

GB News, which is not a news channel according to Ofcom, repeatedly egging on President Trump to sue the BBC - and the culture secretary Lisa Nandy does nothing because she's too busy telling lies in parliament about police advice over Maccabi - GB News, "The BBC and the defamation case. How did you feel when you first heard about it?" President Trump, "They wrote me a letter of apology" "If it's unintentional, you don't apologise, right?" "Just before this interview I hear they did it again on another program" GB News, "On Newsnight" President Trump, "I just settled with 60 minutes CBS.. But that's not as bad as what the BBC did" "One of the BBC"s competitors reported it, how they found out about it, you've got to give them credit" GB News, "And if it wasn't for The Daily Telegraph shining a light on the story" President Trump, "I assume they are enemies, they are now" GB News, "Well, they are part of the establishment media in the UK.. They were angry on your behalf" "How easy was it to pursue legal again?" President Trump, "I don't even know what percent is owned by your government" GB News, "It's funded by the British taxpayer" President Trump, "British tax payer has been a big problem with it" GB News, "The director general resigned, the head of news resigned. How far are you prepared to push it?" President Trump, "This is beyond fake, this is corrupt what they did" GB News, "As someone who understands TV, if you worked on a show where they edited something together like that" President Trump, "Who would do this?" "You worry about AI because things like this happen, but you can't imagine the BBC did this, somewhat crudely" "I couldn't believe it actually" GB News, "How far will you push it because they haven't offered you a penny in compensation" President Trump, "I think I have an obligation to do it. If you don't do it you don't stop it" "I wonder if they've done it to other people"

Farrukh

33,210 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Parag Parikh on Trading in stock markets: “I have seen so many bankruptcies because people went on doing short term trading.” “I know people who would have symptoms like an alcoholic and they become uneasy if they didn’t sit in front of trading screen the whole day.” “The environment is so vicious that it tempts you to do something all the time. This is bad for the younger generation.” This is a 15 Year old video, recorded in 2011, but the message still remains the same. 🔥
1:30

Parag Parikh on Trading in stock markets: “I have seen so many bankruptcies because people went on doing short term trading.” “I know people who would have symptoms like an alcoholic and they become uneasy if they didn’t sit in front of trading screen the whole day.” “The environment is so vicious that it tempts you to do something all the time. This is bad for the younger generation.” This is a 15 Year old video, recorded in 2011, but the message still remains the same. 🔥

Sunil Gurjar, CFTe

21,430 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Parag Parikh on Trading in stock markets: “I have seen so many bankruptcies because people went on doing short term trading.” “I know people who would have symptoms like an alcoholic and they become uneasy if they didn’t sit in front of trading screen the whole day.” “The environment is so vicious that it tempts you to do something all the time. This is bad for the younger generation.” This is a 15 Year old video, recorded in 2011, but the message still remains the same. 🔥
1:30

Parag Parikh on Trading in stock markets: “I have seen so many bankruptcies because people went on doing short term trading.” “I know people who would have symptoms like an alcoholic and they become uneasy if they didn’t sit in front of trading screen the whole day.” “The environment is so vicious that it tempts you to do something all the time. This is bad for the younger generation.” This is a 15 Year old video, recorded in 2011, but the message still remains the same. 🔥

Ronit Pereira

55,262 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 "This War Has Been Won" - President Donald J. Trump Tells LindellTV Iran Is "Totally Defeated" As Peace Deal Talks Underway At the White House swearing-in ceremony for new Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, LindellTV's Cara Castronuova asked: "President Trump, on a human level - not as the President of the United States - how hopeful are you that this peace deal with Iran will work out?" President Trump: "I think we're going to end it. I can't tell you for sure. This war has been won. The only one that likes to keep it going is the fake news. They have no Navy, they have no air force, they have no nothing. We literally have planes flying over Tehran - they can't do a thing about it. They're totally defeated. But if you read the The New York Times or watch ABC News fake news or NBC Entertainment fake news, you'd say it's a close battle. It's not a close battle."
1:40

🚨 "This War Has Been Won" - President Donald J. Trump Tells LindellTV Iran Is "Totally Defeated" As Peace Deal Talks Underway At the White House swearing-in ceremony for new Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin, LindellTV's Cara Castronuova asked: "President Trump, on a human level - not as the President of the United States - how hopeful are you that this peace deal with Iran will work out?" President Trump: "I think we're going to end it. I can't tell you for sure. This war has been won. The only one that likes to keep it going is the fake news. They have no Navy, they have no air force, they have no nothing. We literally have planes flying over Tehran - they can't do a thing about it. They're totally defeated. But if you read the The New York Times or watch ABC News fake news or NBC Entertainment fake news, you'd say it's a close battle. It's not a close battle."

LindellTV

18,947 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

“Right now, CBS News is on fire” Scott Pelley: “We need adult supervision and at the moment we don’t have it. We have people who’ve been installed in these jobs who through no fault of their own have no experience in television. It’s not their fault, but they don’t know what they’re doing. There’s a subtle political bias that I’ve never seen at 60 Minutes or CBS News before. That is my hope, a return to sanity. A return to honor, a return to courage. We used to have all of those things in abundance and now we don’t. We can save this. It’s possible to land this plane. But right now, CBS News, in my view, is on fire”
1:45

“Right now, CBS News is on fire” Scott Pelley: “We need adult supervision and at the moment we don’t have it. We have people who’ve been installed in these jobs who through no fault of their own have no experience in television. It’s not their fault, but they don’t know what they’re doing. There’s a subtle political bias that I’ve never seen at 60 Minutes or CBS News before. That is my hope, a return to sanity. A return to honor, a return to courage. We used to have all of those things in abundance and now we don’t. We can save this. It’s possible to land this plane. But right now, CBS News, in my view, is on fire”

Marco Foster

440,254 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

CBS's Jericka Duncan took a deep breath before reading copy on the Alfonsi kerfuffle for the Evening News, that closed with: "We determined it needed additional reporting." JERICKA DUNCAN: Well, now to a story about CBS News. A few hours before last night's edition of 60 Minutes, viewers learned that a segment that had been promoted would not air. It's about a notorious prison in El Salvador. And the Trump administration's decision to send Venezuelans and others there who it says entered the U.S. illegally. The correspondent, 60 Minutes veteran Sharyn Alfonsi, sent an email to CBS News colleagues saying the story is factually correct, and accusing CBS News Editor-in-Chief Bari Weiss of pulling it for political reasons. Alfonsi says that despite requests for interviews, no one in the Trump administration would participate in the story. In an email, she wrote that, quote: "If the administration's refusal to participate becomes a valid reason to spike a story, we have effectively handed them a kill switch." In a statement, Weiss says in part, quote: "Holding stories that aren't ready for whatever reason, that they lacked sufficient context, say, or that they are missing critical voices, happens every day in every newsroom. I look forward to airing this important piece when it's ready." And CBS News released a statement saying the 60 Minutes report on “Inside CECOT” will air in a future broadcast. We determined it needed additional reporting.
1:28

CBS's Jericka Duncan took a deep breath before reading copy on the Alfonsi kerfuffle for the Evening News, that closed with: "We determined it needed additional reporting." JERICKA DUNCAN: Well, now to a story about CBS News. A few hours before last night's edition of 60 Minutes, viewers learned that a segment that had been promoted would not air. It's about a notorious prison in El Salvador. And the Trump administration's decision to send Venezuelans and others there who it says entered the U.S. illegally. The correspondent, 60 Minutes veteran Sharyn Alfonsi, sent an email to CBS News colleagues saying the story is factually correct, and accusing CBS News Editor-in-Chief Bari Weiss of pulling it for political reasons. Alfonsi says that despite requests for interviews, no one in the Trump administration would participate in the story. In an email, she wrote that, quote: "If the administration's refusal to participate becomes a valid reason to spike a story, we have effectively handed them a kill switch." In a statement, Weiss says in part, quote: "Holding stories that aren't ready for whatever reason, that they lacked sufficient context, say, or that they are missing critical voices, happens every day in every newsroom. I look forward to airing this important piece when it's ready." And CBS News released a statement saying the 60 Minutes report on “Inside CECOT” will air in a future broadcast. We determined it needed additional reporting.

Jorge Bonilla

408,678 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Jay Clayton will be the new Director of National Intelligence starting tomorrow, replacing acting DNI Bill Pulte. During a CNBC interview in 2024, Clayton mentioned he was bothered by the GameStop $GME situation and described it as closer to gambling than investing. "It is not insider trading - that's clear. And he (DFV) is trading on his own information, that is why it's not insider trading. But is this something that we should be tolerating in our markets? Whether it is legal or illegal? I don’t think so." We'll see what happens.
3:35

Jay Clayton will be the new Director of National Intelligence starting tomorrow, replacing acting DNI Bill Pulte. During a CNBC interview in 2024, Clayton mentioned he was bothered by the GameStop $GME situation and described it as closer to gambling than investing. "It is not insider trading - that's clear. And he (DFV) is trading on his own information, that is why it's not insider trading. But is this something that we should be tolerating in our markets? Whether it is legal or illegal? I don’t think so." We'll see what happens.

domoshi

41,448 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat