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First Release from Topstep Labs! 🧪 $25K Buying Power: Smaller account. Lower price. Same opportunity at funding $1,000 Static Max Loss Limit (MLL): Stay above $24,000. Reach $2,000 in profits. Your MLL never moves. $4K Payout Cap. Same $4,000 payout cap in Express Funded Accounts as the $50K Trading... show more

Jay C

3,526 subscribers

22,783 次观看 • 18 天前 •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 NEW LAB DROP 🚨 The biggest Trading Combine we've ever released. 🧪 Limited quantity ✅ $250K Buying Power ✅ $25K Payout Caps ✅ $10K Max Loss Limit Topstep Labs is where we test the future. Catch this one before it disappears. 🔗

🚨 NEW LAB DROP 🚨 The biggest Trading Combine we've ever released. 🧪 Limited quantity ✅ $250K Buying Power ✅ $25K Payout Caps ✅ $10K Max Loss Limit Topstep Labs is where we test the future. Catch this one before it disappears. 🔗

Topstep

114,767 次观看 • 2 天前

My Polymarket bot is finished! It’s fully automated, I just run it and let the magic happen. At the start of each "Bitcoin Up or Down" round, the bot only watches the market during the first 2 minutes (configurable). If, during that time, either UP or DOWN drops fast enough, a price drop of at least 15% over 3 seconds (configurable), the bot triggers Leg 1 and immediately buys the side that dumped. After this first buy, the bot will never buy the same side again. Instead, it waits for a hedge opportunity on the opposite side. The hedge (Leg 2) is triggered only when: Leg1 entry price + current opposite ask price auto on [sum=0.95] [move=0.15] [windowMin=2] > shares: number of shares bought each time (for both Leg 1 and Leg 2) > sum: total price threshold that allows the hedge > move: dump threshold (e.g. 0.15 = 15%) > windowMin: number of minutes from the start of the round during which Leg 1 is allowed In this example, I ran: auto on 10 0.95 0.15 4 The bot watched the market for the first 4 minutes and bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.35 after a 17% drop in 3 seconds. A few seconds later, it bought 10 UP shares at $0.56, because: 0.56 + 0.35 = 0.91 < 0.95 That locked in a clean 9% profit. Why limit the strategy to the first 4 minutes of the round? Because early in the cycle, the market still has time to dump further and then stabilize. The closer you get to the end of the round, the lower the probability of seeing large corrective moves. Early on, there’s still time for volatility to play out. You can watch the video, the first order triggers at 2:50, and the second order at 3:02. If you’re interested in the bot, DM me.

My Polymarket bot is finished! It’s fully automated, I just run it and let the magic happen. At the start of each "Bitcoin Up or Down" round, the bot only watches the market during the first 2 minutes (configurable). If, during that time, either UP or DOWN drops fast enough, a price drop of at least 15% over 3 seconds (configurable), the bot triggers Leg 1 and immediately buys the side that dumped. After this first buy, the bot will never buy the same side again. Instead, it waits for a hedge opportunity on the opposite side. The hedge (Leg 2) is triggered only when: Leg1 entry price + current opposite ask price auto on [sum=0.95] [move=0.15] [windowMin=2] > shares: number of shares bought each time (for both Leg 1 and Leg 2) > sum: total price threshold that allows the hedge > move: dump threshold (e.g. 0.15 = 15%) > windowMin: number of minutes from the start of the round during which Leg 1 is allowed In this example, I ran: auto on 10 0.95 0.15 4 The bot watched the market for the first 4 minutes and bought 10 DOWN shares at $0.35 after a 17% drop in 3 seconds. A few seconds later, it bought 10 UP shares at $0.56, because: 0.56 + 0.35 = 0.91 < 0.95 That locked in a clean 9% profit. Why limit the strategy to the first 4 minutes of the round? Because early in the cycle, the market still has time to dump further and then stabilize. The closer you get to the end of the round, the lower the probability of seeing large corrective moves. Early on, there’s still time for volatility to play out. You can watch the video, the first order triggers at 2:50, and the second order at 3:02. If you’re interested in the bot, DM me.

The Smart Ape 🔥

202,615 次观看 • 7 个月前

I keep buying $MURAD right now Dev is doing their best to put 1,400 holders back in profit after the recent ATH You may ask me why we returned to $1M mcap? But look at what is happening to the market right now: People are panicking after Iran’s overnight attacks. Oil is rising again. But we all know this instability will end soon. Even now, after the overnight correction, $MURAD is still trading above $1 MILLION. Just imagine the pump that could be waiting for us when markets stabilize again. Dev continues doing buybacks every $1 million in market cap. Yesterday we hit $2M market cap. So today I expect team to make second $15,000 buyback. And all tokens from those buys are sent to Murad. YOU CAN PUT A GUN TO MY HEAD And I will still tell you the same thing: Even at a $100K mcap $MURAD looks better than $ANSEM Why? Because the upside on a lowcap is multiple times higher ANSEM already reached nearly $400M mcap Where could it go now? $500M. $600M. $1B. In the best case scenario it will make only 2-3x If $MURAD hits at least $10M market cap, We will make over 10x from this price Buybacks. Airdrop for #SPX6900 holders This is how new 100x runners are born Only true believers will be left for the run to millions Mark my words...

I keep buying $MURAD right now Dev is doing their best to put 1,400 holders back in profit after the recent ATH You may ask me why we returned to $1M mcap? But look at what is happening to the market right now: People are panicking after Iran’s overnight attacks. Oil is rising again. But we all know this instability will end soon. Even now, after the overnight correction, $MURAD is still trading above $1 MILLION. Just imagine the pump that could be waiting for us when markets stabilize again. Dev continues doing buybacks every $1 million in market cap. Yesterday we hit $2M market cap. So today I expect team to make second $15,000 buyback. And all tokens from those buys are sent to Murad. YOU CAN PUT A GUN TO MY HEAD And I will still tell you the same thing: Even at a $100K mcap $MURAD looks better than $ANSEM Why? Because the upside on a lowcap is multiple times higher ANSEM already reached nearly $400M mcap Where could it go now? $500M. $600M. $1B. In the best case scenario it will make only 2-3x If $MURAD hits at least $10M market cap, We will make over 10x from this price Buybacks. Airdrop for #SPX6900 holders This is how new 100x runners are born Only true believers will be left for the run to millions Mark my words...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

46,073 次观看 • 11 天前

Want to tell you something interesting about $BTC... Most of you are aware of BTC market cycles, and that historically bear markets last ~365 days, and we're 2.5/3 in What's the small difference is speed, we're dropping faster, sharper chops and should bottom earlier That means we bottom in ~August, probably September max and even that many know about But even with this info, I see how 99% of you are losing money in the fourth cycle in a row So how does that happen? Based on all the math, we're likely ~15-20% from the bottom and next thing, what you don't know is that historically... Smart money builds spot positions all the way down in the -40% to -60% range from ATH Using that model means you must buy at: 65K 60K 55K 50K That's currently what I am doing, even with calling for lower and telling you about my shorts, I am buying spot actively Most of you are trying to buy at perfect price, then we drop to 55K and now you're scared to buy cause what if we are going to 40K? And there is more, we really can dump to 40K, so fear is real and that's where the worst happens, you are not buying at all Then buying back the pump at 80K Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened Understand that this might be one's last chance to buy BTC at ~50K-60K and that might be your generational trade I don't like pushing it so much, calling you what to do, so I'm basically like giving my thoughts And in ~1-2 years, I will be posting that I called the actual bottom and made another 7 figs on this BTC trade So you can follow me now and be on that way with me, or skip it and read the same thoughts next cycle after you skipped profits

Want to tell you something interesting about $BTC... Most of you are aware of BTC market cycles, and that historically bear markets last ~365 days, and we're 2.5/3 in What's the small difference is speed, we're dropping faster, sharper chops and should bottom earlier That means we bottom in ~August, probably September max and even that many know about But even with this info, I see how 99% of you are losing money in the fourth cycle in a row So how does that happen? Based on all the math, we're likely ~15-20% from the bottom and next thing, what you don't know is that historically... Smart money builds spot positions all the way down in the -40% to -60% range from ATH Using that model means you must buy at: 65K 60K 55K 50K That's currently what I am doing, even with calling for lower and telling you about my shorts, I am buying spot actively Most of you are trying to buy at perfect price, then we drop to 55K and now you're scared to buy cause what if we are going to 40K? And there is more, we really can dump to 40K, so fear is real and that's where the worst happens, you are not buying at all Then buying back the pump at 80K Don't cry because it's over, smile because it happened Understand that this might be one's last chance to buy BTC at ~50K-60K and that might be your generational trade I don't like pushing it so much, calling you what to do, so I'm basically like giving my thoughts And in ~1-2 years, I will be posting that I called the actual bottom and made another 7 figs on this BTC trade So you can follow me now and be on that way with me, or skip it and read the same thoughts next cycle after you skipped profits

symbiote

17,430 次观看 • 1 个月前

You’re following terrible advice: Incrementality tests Reach campaigns Upper-funnel events Useless for subscription rate - So you don’t lose money - Yeah, that one’s important - Bundle to fix low AOV - BOGO, GWP preserve margin - Frame free shipping as value - Sample if trial-dependent - Go hard on affiliates for retail - Anchored in organic “halo” - Awareness drives in-store - Align your creative to channel - Especially signal strategy - When you go up-funnel - Agency vs in-house debates - $50k/mo

You’re following terrible advice: Incrementality tests Reach campaigns Upper-funnel events Useless for subscription rate - So you don’t lose money - Yeah, that one’s important - Bundle to fix low AOV - BOGO, GWP preserve margin - Frame free shipping as value - Sample if trial-dependent - Go hard on affiliates for retail - Anchored in organic “halo” - Awareness drives in-store - Align your creative to channel - Especially signal strategy - When you go up-funnel - Agency vs in-house debates - $50k/mo

MarketingOperators

20,003 次观看 • 2 个月前

since 1993, hedge funds over $100M have been legally required to publish every position they hold 4 times a year, exact stocks and exact share counts, all of it free on the SEC website i spent 6 months asking one question with python: what happens when 4 or more separate funds all show up with new positions in the same small-cap stock in the same quarter - before the price has moved? backtested 2,400 signals from 2019 to 2025 67% win rate, 18.4% average gain per trade, 31 day average hold the reason the edge exists is the same reason the funds themselves can't collect it an $8B fund building a position in a $400M company moves the price against itself the second it starts buying so they file 45 days after the fact, the window opens, and nobody's standing in it running it live since february - 11 closed trades, 9 winners, +31% while the s&p returned 8% in the same period setup cost: a free API key from SEC EDGAR and one saturday morning this isn't an edge i found by being smart. it's an edge that only exists because the people publishing it are too large to use it themselves Bookmark before it get losted the filing requirement has been law since the clinton administration, sitting in a public federal database for 30 years most retail traders pay monthly subscriptions to signal services built by people who just learned to read a government XML file the data was never hidden. it just required knowing where to look

since 1993, hedge funds over $100M have been legally required to publish every position they hold 4 times a year, exact stocks and exact share counts, all of it free on the SEC website i spent 6 months asking one question with python: what happens when 4 or more separate funds all show up with new positions in the same small-cap stock in the same quarter - before the price has moved? backtested 2,400 signals from 2019 to 2025 67% win rate, 18.4% average gain per trade, 31 day average hold the reason the edge exists is the same reason the funds themselves can't collect it an $8B fund building a position in a $400M company moves the price against itself the second it starts buying so they file 45 days after the fact, the window opens, and nobody's standing in it running it live since february - 11 closed trades, 9 winners, +31% while the s&p returned 8% in the same period setup cost: a free API key from SEC EDGAR and one saturday morning this isn't an edge i found by being smart. it's an edge that only exists because the people publishing it are too large to use it themselves Bookmark before it get losted the filing requirement has been law since the clinton administration, sitting in a public federal database for 30 years most retail traders pay monthly subscriptions to signal services built by people who just learned to read a government XML file the data was never hidden. it just required knowing where to look

Livsun

32,072 次观看 • 29 天前

Is it true that food prices are going up? That is PERCEPTION talking, not REALITY. Many Nigerians still frame the question that way, when the real question should be: why are food prices crashing this fast? Let us check the markets together Major Food Comodity Prices (50kg equivalents) •Local Rice: ₦40k (2023) → ₦100k (2024) → now as low as 50k depending on the market. •Beans: ₦50k (2023) → ₦100k (2024) → now as low as ₦50k •Garri: ₦20k (2023) → ₦75k (2024) → now ₦30k to ₦40k depending on location and market. •Pepper (bag): ₦35k (2023) → ₦135k (2024) → now ₦30k to ₦35k •Tomatoes (basket): ₦30k (2023) → ₦75k (2024) → now ₦25k to ₦30k PMS (Pump Price per Litre) •Before Tinubu: ₦196 •After Subsidy Removal: ₦670 •Peak: ₦1,350 •Now: ₦820 to ₦870 (depending on distance to depot) The facts are clear: •The 2024 shocks are easing off. •Food staples are stabilizing, many back near 2023 prices. •Petrol is correcting downward with competition driving the cuts. And let us be fair to Mr. President. From day one, he never pretended Nigerians were not in pain. He has been consistent: acknowledge the hardship, stay frank about the sacrifices, and push reforms that bring relief. Even during his vacation, meant to refresh body, soul, and mind for greater service, he gave a clear directive: bring food prices down. That same week, Dangote announced another cut in PMS price. Coincidence? I do not think so. As we approach Nigeria’s 65th Independence Anniversary, let us have honest conversations, not propaganda. The numbers are there in the open markets, in filling stations, and in our daily lives. Yes, more work remains, cement, sugar, beverages, and others must follow the same downward curve. But I believe strongly we will soon see food prices even lower than where this administration met them. Renewed Hope is working.

Is it true that food prices are going up? That is PERCEPTION talking, not REALITY. Many Nigerians still frame the question that way, when the real question should be: why are food prices crashing this fast? Let us check the markets together Major Food Comodity Prices (50kg equivalents) •Local Rice: ₦40k (2023) → ₦100k (2024) → now as low as 50k depending on the market. •Beans: ₦50k (2023) → ₦100k (2024) → now as low as ₦50k •Garri: ₦20k (2023) → ₦75k (2024) → now ₦30k to ₦40k depending on location and market. •Pepper (bag): ₦35k (2023) → ₦135k (2024) → now ₦30k to ₦35k •Tomatoes (basket): ₦30k (2023) → ₦75k (2024) → now ₦25k to ₦30k PMS (Pump Price per Litre) •Before Tinubu: ₦196 •After Subsidy Removal: ₦670 •Peak: ₦1,350 •Now: ₦820 to ₦870 (depending on distance to depot) The facts are clear: •The 2024 shocks are easing off. •Food staples are stabilizing, many back near 2023 prices. •Petrol is correcting downward with competition driving the cuts. And let us be fair to Mr. President. From day one, he never pretended Nigerians were not in pain. He has been consistent: acknowledge the hardship, stay frank about the sacrifices, and push reforms that bring relief. Even during his vacation, meant to refresh body, soul, and mind for greater service, he gave a clear directive: bring food prices down. That same week, Dangote announced another cut in PMS price. Coincidence? I do not think so. As we approach Nigeria’s 65th Independence Anniversary, let us have honest conversations, not propaganda. The numbers are there in the open markets, in filling stations, and in our daily lives. Yes, more work remains, cement, sugar, beverages, and others must follow the same downward curve. But I believe strongly we will soon see food prices even lower than where this administration met them. Renewed Hope is working.

Chief Edward David Onoja

34,118 次观看 • 10 个月前

#VRA has been bombarded with FUD posters for the past few days and we have seen the price of $VRA drop considerably. However you need to understand that Verasity | PLRL is going to continue to work on its business regardless of FUD, regardless of short term price action. VRA price action follows Bitcoin price action as does the whole crypto market. FUDDERs have a very small impact on a short term basis ! They go away when the market is up and price is going higher. They come back when the price drops and their unrealised profits go down. Verasity | PLRL has a relatively low cap and is subject to extreme volatility in either direction. It’s a player in a massive market of tens of thousands of different crypto token projects. It has to compete within the market and attract investors who see the potential for long term growth. This happens over time and we are not a project that has paid influencers shilling the token every few weeks so despite the recent FUD and despite the volatility in the market VRA staking is still remarkably full with only 0.5% available capacity at this moment. This shows that “Long Term” holders are still sticking with #VRA and are not going anywhere . They are patient and will allow the team to continue developing the project and growing their client base and delivering on the road map. The Tokenomics which is still the main source of FEAR UNCERTAINTY and DOUBT will eventually be resolved in a matter of weeks as we have been told thar testing continues with the new POV token chain and we will soon go into BETA Testing the new chain for POV. What we can guarantee is that over the coming months there will be more token burns further reducing the tradable supply and there will be more development of the business and as the market rebounds once again so will $VRA price. If you are watching price every day then all you are doing is creating short term stress for yourself. Simply stake your tokens and collect your rewards and wait for the team to do their job. I am chilled 😎 watching and waiting and buying the dips at every opportunity I can. I do expect a significant bounce back upwards over the next few months as we approach the halving event and I am DCAing these dips in price. Remember the main bull run is many months away and really doesn’t normally kick off until several months after the BTC halving if you check back over the history of the previous halvings. Usually you see a short spike upwards then a correction and then the start of the FOMO ! It’s highly likely this process will repeat so stay focused.

#VRA has been bombarded with FUD posters for the past few days and we have seen the price of $VRA drop considerably. However you need to understand that Verasity | PLRL is going to continue to work on its business regardless of FUD, regardless of short term price action. VRA price action follows Bitcoin price action as does the whole crypto market. FUDDERs have a very small impact on a short term basis ! They go away when the market is up and price is going higher. They come back when the price drops and their unrealised profits go down. Verasity | PLRL has a relatively low cap and is subject to extreme volatility in either direction. It’s a player in a massive market of tens of thousands of different crypto token projects. It has to compete within the market and attract investors who see the potential for long term growth. This happens over time and we are not a project that has paid influencers shilling the token every few weeks so despite the recent FUD and despite the volatility in the market VRA staking is still remarkably full with only 0.5% available capacity at this moment. This shows that “Long Term” holders are still sticking with #VRA and are not going anywhere . They are patient and will allow the team to continue developing the project and growing their client base and delivering on the road map. The Tokenomics which is still the main source of FEAR UNCERTAINTY and DOUBT will eventually be resolved in a matter of weeks as we have been told thar testing continues with the new POV token chain and we will soon go into BETA Testing the new chain for POV. What we can guarantee is that over the coming months there will be more token burns further reducing the tradable supply and there will be more development of the business and as the market rebounds once again so will $VRA price. If you are watching price every day then all you are doing is creating short term stress for yourself. Simply stake your tokens and collect your rewards and wait for the team to do their job. I am chilled 😎 watching and waiting and buying the dips at every opportunity I can. I do expect a significant bounce back upwards over the next few months as we approach the halving event and I am DCAing these dips in price. Remember the main bull run is many months away and really doesn’t normally kick off until several months after the BTC halving if you check back over the history of the previous halvings. Usually you see a short spike upwards then a correction and then the start of the FOMO ! It’s highly likely this process will repeat so stay focused.

Never Give Up

16,166 次观看 • 2 年前

Physical Gold → Equities Rebalancing Executed! Credit Cards → Gold → Cash → Mutual Funds Sold all my Vedhani Collection from P.N.Gadgil of 231.5 gms 995 gold to Kalyan Jewellers, who bought it at a 3% deduction from the day's rate. I accumulated this gold over several years, and my average purchase price was around ₹10,000/gm, while I sold it at approximately ₹15,000/gm. All gold was bought at discount from various platforms. (Capital gains tax applies based on the respective purchase dates.) On top of the appreciation, the credit card points valued about 15% conservatively on the buying price earned while buying the gold have funded my travels over the last many years and should comfortably fund another year(s) or so of travel. Post melting, the purity came to around 99.4%. (Kalyan may not buy back at just a 3% deduction if this happens, so it's advisable to carry some 999-purity gold along for melting when selling, helping keep the overall purity above 99.5%.) Interestingly, the final weight was marginally higher. The sale proceeds were credited to my bank account the next day after the 3% deduction. I then invested the proceeds into the UTI Nifty 50 Index Fund. I have already held this fund for more than five years, so this was simply a top-up. (It does have a slightly higher expense ratio than some other index funds but the tracking error is lower) Why a domestic index fund? For the last two-plus years, I've been allocating most of my investments to gold. While gold has delivered spectacular returns during this period, the Nifty 50 has generated almost no returns over the same timeframe. I felt this was a good opportunity to buy into equities at roughly two year old price levels and rebalance my portfolio. (PS: I already hold ~20% of my portfolio in an US index since several years) PS: Bought some of the gold back today already at a lower rate than I sold it at as there were some great deals. Follow me Akash for credit card strategies / optimization & Gold Deals 🪙 for amazing gold deals. ❤️|♻️ for good karma. 😊

Physical Gold → Equities Rebalancing Executed! Credit Cards → Gold → Cash → Mutual Funds Sold all my Vedhani Collection from P.N.Gadgil of 231.5 gms 995 gold to Kalyan Jewellers, who bought it at a 3% deduction from the day's rate. I accumulated this gold over several years, and my average purchase price was around ₹10,000/gm, while I sold it at approximately ₹15,000/gm. All gold was bought at discount from various platforms. (Capital gains tax applies based on the respective purchase dates.) On top of the appreciation, the credit card points valued about 15% conservatively on the buying price earned while buying the gold have funded my travels over the last many years and should comfortably fund another year(s) or so of travel. Post melting, the purity came to around 99.4%. (Kalyan may not buy back at just a 3% deduction if this happens, so it's advisable to carry some 999-purity gold along for melting when selling, helping keep the overall purity above 99.5%.) Interestingly, the final weight was marginally higher. The sale proceeds were credited to my bank account the next day after the 3% deduction. I then invested the proceeds into the UTI Nifty 50 Index Fund. I have already held this fund for more than five years, so this was simply a top-up. (It does have a slightly higher expense ratio than some other index funds but the tracking error is lower) Why a domestic index fund? For the last two-plus years, I've been allocating most of my investments to gold. While gold has delivered spectacular returns during this period, the Nifty 50 has generated almost no returns over the same timeframe. I felt this was a good opportunity to buy into equities at roughly two year old price levels and rebalance my portfolio. (PS: I already hold ~20% of my portfolio in an US index since several years) PS: Bought some of the gold back today already at a lower rate than I sold it at as there were some great deals. Follow me Akash for credit card strategies / optimization & Gold Deals 🪙 for amazing gold deals. ❤️|♻️ for good karma. 😊

Akash

223,200 次观看 • 1 个月前

The Path to Trading Mastery: Research and Pattern Recognition By Qullamaggie 1. Step-by-Step Market Research The easiest way to start is to research the markets thoroughly. First, get a platform like TC2000 and set your charts to the monthly timeframe. Create a watchlist of all US stocks and filter them by dollar volume instead of just share volume. Aim for liquid names—those with at least $1 billion to $10 billion in monthly dollar volume—to avoid "super thin" or illiquid stocks. 2. Identifying the Big Movers Go through the entire database (roughly 5,000 stocks) and identify the outliers. Look for stocks that: At least doubled in price within six months. Increased 200–300% within a single year. Gained 400–500% over three to four years. Create a separate watchlist for every single stock that has made these massive moves. You will likely end up with a few hundred highly liquid, historical winners. 3. Studying Chart Patterns Go back as far as the 80s or 90s and study their chart patterns. Stocks move in very specific ways. These same patterns occur over and over again—there is nothing truly new in the markets. While there are variations, the patterns that worked in the 90s are the same ones you see today. Focus primarily on price action. You can add a few indicators if you wish—I recommend moving averages—but don't use too many. "Too many indicators is for suckers." Study how these big winners acted during pullbacks: Which moving averages did the best stocks respect or "obey"? How did they behave before the breakout? How did they act once the move was underway? 4. Building Your Mental Database (The 2,000-Hour Rule) Your goal is to build a database in your head. Spend 1,000 hours doing exactly this: printing out charts, studying them, and saving them. (I personally use Evernote to store tens of thousands of these charts). Once you understand the price action, spend another 1,000 hours researching the fundamentals and the news behind those moves. What was driving them? What made a stock go up 500% in a year? If you put in those 2,000 hours of deep research, I promise you: before you know it, you’re going to have ten million dollars in your account.

The Path to Trading Mastery: Research and Pattern Recognition By Qullamaggie 1. Step-by-Step Market Research The easiest way to start is to research the markets thoroughly. First, get a platform like TC2000 and set your charts to the monthly timeframe. Create a watchlist of all US stocks and filter them by dollar volume instead of just share volume. Aim for liquid names—those with at least $1 billion to $10 billion in monthly dollar volume—to avoid "super thin" or illiquid stocks. 2. Identifying the Big Movers Go through the entire database (roughly 5,000 stocks) and identify the outliers. Look for stocks that: At least doubled in price within six months. Increased 200–300% within a single year. Gained 400–500% over three to four years. Create a separate watchlist for every single stock that has made these massive moves. You will likely end up with a few hundred highly liquid, historical winners. 3. Studying Chart Patterns Go back as far as the 80s or 90s and study their chart patterns. Stocks move in very specific ways. These same patterns occur over and over again—there is nothing truly new in the markets. While there are variations, the patterns that worked in the 90s are the same ones you see today. Focus primarily on price action. You can add a few indicators if you wish—I recommend moving averages—but don't use too many. "Too many indicators is for suckers." Study how these big winners acted during pullbacks: Which moving averages did the best stocks respect or "obey"? How did they behave before the breakout? How did they act once the move was underway? 4. Building Your Mental Database (The 2,000-Hour Rule) Your goal is to build a database in your head. Spend 1,000 hours doing exactly this: printing out charts, studying them, and saving them. (I personally use Evernote to store tens of thousands of these charts). Once you understand the price action, spend another 1,000 hours researching the fundamentals and the news behind those moves. What was driving them? What made a stock go up 500% in a year? If you put in those 2,000 hours of deep research, I promise you: before you know it, you’re going to have ten million dollars in your account.

Will Hu

54,905 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚨 US-IRAN PEACE DEAL IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE... And the markets don't fully understand what that means yet. Iran just closed the Strait of Hormuz again. Not a warning, Not a threat, Closed. In direct response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The same strikes that happened while peace negotiations were still technically on the table. The same table that just got flipped. Insiders are already saying it out loud: the peace deal is collapsing. Everything the market priced in over the last two weeks the ceasefire premium. The Hormuz reopening rally, the oil selloff, the risk-on rotation gets unwound. All these events happened at the same time. Here's what closes through the Strait of Hormuz: 20% of global oil supply every day gone. JUST IMAGINE. 20 PERCENT. The oil drop that happened on peace deal optimism was one of the fastest moves in months. The reversal of that move will be just as fast. Except in the other direction. But oil is just the beginning. Risk assets were already fragile before this. The S&P 500 concentrated in eight names. Bitcoin sitting at a level where bull traps end. Leverage everywhere, retail fully positioned for the soft landing scenario. There is no soft landing scenario anymore. Geopolitical risk just came back harder than it left. And markets that priced out that risk over the last two weeks now have to price it back in overnight. With no orderly exit. Energy spikes, safe havens get bought, High-beta tech gets sold first. Crypto follows within hours. The crowd that celebrated the peace deal last week is the same crowd that's now holding the bag. This is not a dip, this is a regime change. Everything changes from here. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon Many will regret not following me earlier...

🚨 US-IRAN PEACE DEAL IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE... And the markets don't fully understand what that means yet. Iran just closed the Strait of Hormuz again. Not a warning, Not a threat, Closed. In direct response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. The same strikes that happened while peace negotiations were still technically on the table. The same table that just got flipped. Insiders are already saying it out loud: the peace deal is collapsing. Everything the market priced in over the last two weeks the ceasefire premium. The Hormuz reopening rally, the oil selloff, the risk-on rotation gets unwound. All these events happened at the same time. Here's what closes through the Strait of Hormuz: 20% of global oil supply every day gone. JUST IMAGINE. 20 PERCENT. The oil drop that happened on peace deal optimism was one of the fastest moves in months. The reversal of that move will be just as fast. Except in the other direction. But oil is just the beginning. Risk assets were already fragile before this. The S&P 500 concentrated in eight names. Bitcoin sitting at a level where bull traps end. Leverage everywhere, retail fully positioned for the soft landing scenario. There is no soft landing scenario anymore. Geopolitical risk just came back harder than it left. And markets that priced out that risk over the last two weeks now have to price it back in overnight. With no orderly exit. Energy spikes, safe havens get bought, High-beta tech gets sold first. Crypto follows within hours. The crowd that celebrated the peace deal last week is the same crowd that's now holding the bag. This is not a dip, this is a regime change. Everything changes from here. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

153,736 次观看 • 29 天前

I think May and June could be brutal for crypto, and in this video I walk through exactly why I still believe BTC could push all the way down to $38,555 before this bear market leg is done. The core of the argument comes from the crypto calendar and how the last real bottom years behaved, especially when you compare monthly closes with the full wick-to-wick volatility inside those candles. I break down what those historical averages imply for BTC first, then apply the same lens to ETH and the broader market. The important point is not just that monthly closes could be red. It is that the intramonth volatility can get much uglier than the close alone suggests, which is why a move that looks manageable on paper can still feel like a bloodbath in real time. I also zoom out to TOTALES and the smaller-cap market to show how deep the damage could go if the same kind of bear-market behavior repeats. That is where the opportunity comes in too. If this forecast is even directionally right, the next two months could create some of the best accumulation windows of the cycle, but only for people who stay patient, think probabilistically, and avoid pretending projections are guarantees. The biggest takeaway is that this is a forecast, not a certainty. July has historically looked stronger, but I do not treat that as proof the full bottom is in. Right now I am using the best historical data we have to map the downside, prepare for volatility, and think ahead instead of reacting after the damage is already done. Crypto Calendar: Chapters: 00:00 Bitcoin to $38,555 by June? 01:48 BTC May and June historical forecast 03:19 Bitcoin volatility and lower wick projections 06:40 June could be even worse for BTC 10:47 Why this data comes from The Better Traders Club 12:34 Ethereum May and June forecast 15:30 ETH volatility and the $1,000 target 20:02 What TOTALES shows about the whole crypto market 23:29 TOTALES May and June downside projections 27:04 TOTALES vs TOTALLY50 vs TOTALLY100 explained 31:39 TOTALLY50 forecast and mid-cap risk 34:51 TOTALLY100 forecast and smaller-cap risk 36:21 Why July could bring a bounce 37:40 These are projections, not guarantees 40:02 How traders should prepare 41:48 Trading volatility and final thoughts 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken 👉 🥇 Toobit: $15k Bonus 👉 🥈 TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend 👉 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

I think May and June could be brutal for crypto, and in this video I walk through exactly why I still believe BTC could push all the way down to $38,555 before this bear market leg is done. The core of the argument comes from the crypto calendar and how the last real bottom years behaved, especially when you compare monthly closes with the full wick-to-wick volatility inside those candles. I break down what those historical averages imply for BTC first, then apply the same lens to ETH and the broader market. The important point is not just that monthly closes could be red. It is that the intramonth volatility can get much uglier than the close alone suggests, which is why a move that looks manageable on paper can still feel like a bloodbath in real time. I also zoom out to TOTALES and the smaller-cap market to show how deep the damage could go if the same kind of bear-market behavior repeats. That is where the opportunity comes in too. If this forecast is even directionally right, the next two months could create some of the best accumulation windows of the cycle, but only for people who stay patient, think probabilistically, and avoid pretending projections are guarantees. The biggest takeaway is that this is a forecast, not a certainty. July has historically looked stronger, but I do not treat that as proof the full bottom is in. Right now I am using the best historical data we have to map the downside, prepare for volatility, and think ahead instead of reacting after the damage is already done. Crypto Calendar: Chapters: 00:00 Bitcoin to $38,555 by June? 01:48 BTC May and June historical forecast 03:19 Bitcoin volatility and lower wick projections 06:40 June could be even worse for BTC 10:47 Why this data comes from The Better Traders Club 12:34 Ethereum May and June forecast 15:30 ETH volatility and the $1,000 target 20:02 What TOTALES shows about the whole crypto market 23:29 TOTALES May and June downside projections 27:04 TOTALES vs TOTALLY50 vs TOTALLY100 explained 31:39 TOTALLY50 forecast and mid-cap risk 34:51 TOTALLY100 forecast and smaller-cap risk 36:21 Why July could bring a bounce 37:40 These are projections, not guarantees 40:02 How traders should prepare 41:48 Trading volatility and final thoughts 🎲 Play Moonin Papa BINGO with today's video: 💹 Take Your Trading to the Next Level! 💰 Sign up & Trade on Kraken 👉 🥇 Toobit: $15k Bonus 👉 🥈 TBO indicator: identify trends early, confirm breakouts, and maximize profits by staying in the trend 👉 📚 Learn Proven Crypto Strategies: Master bot trading, scalping, day trading, and swing trading with our courses: 🌐 Stay Connected: Follow me for market updates and insights across platforms:

Aaron Dishner

17,799 次观看 • 2 个月前

The prop firm industry was born to solve a real problem: give skilled traders capital to trade with when they don't have it. (read this to the end, we have something big for you 👇) But somewhere down the road it turned into building a system with rules so tight and absurd that 98% of traders fail, so firms could keep profiting from the challenge fees paid upfront. If you're reading this, don't pretend it never happened to you, or someone you know. Working for days, weeks, sometimes months, just to get a payout denied for the most absurd excuse. The reason that happens is simple: most prop firms simulate your trades, they don't execute them. Your profits are a cost to them. So the whole model is engineered to make you fail. We asked ourselves: if that many payouts are being denied, it means there are more profitable traders out there than the industry wants you to believe. So we took everything wrong with this industry and fixed it. Here's what we built: 1/ Real Market Execution. Instant Payouts. Your trades hit the real market. Not a simulation. You make $100 profit and want to withdraw it immediately? You can. Instantly, with no waiting period, or absurd excuses. Ah, if you were about to ask, there's no daily cap either. 2/ Zero Restrictive Rules at Funded Stage. No daily drawdown, consistency rules, or other absurd ones. Those rules only exist at evaluation stage, to assess whether you can manage risk properly or not. Once funded, they're gone. Trade freely. 3/ A Monthly Salary. Just for Being Funded. ATS Funded is still the only prop firm paying a monthly retainer to its traders. 1% of your account balance, every month, regardless of whether you're up, down, or flat. A bad month means stress, and stress means bad decisions. The salary is there so a bad month doesn't interfere with your strategy. So, what now? If you made it this far, we built this for you, and a gift is waiting in the pinned comment below. Stop trading with your own capital when you can trade with ours. Get Funded 👉 Video Breakdown 👉

The prop firm industry was born to solve a real problem: give skilled traders capital to trade with when they don't have it. (read this to the end, we have something big for you 👇) But somewhere down the road it turned into building a system with rules so tight and absurd that 98% of traders fail, so firms could keep profiting from the challenge fees paid upfront. If you're reading this, don't pretend it never happened to you, or someone you know. Working for days, weeks, sometimes months, just to get a payout denied for the most absurd excuse. The reason that happens is simple: most prop firms simulate your trades, they don't execute them. Your profits are a cost to them. So the whole model is engineered to make you fail. We asked ourselves: if that many payouts are being denied, it means there are more profitable traders out there than the industry wants you to believe. So we took everything wrong with this industry and fixed it. Here's what we built: 1/ Real Market Execution. Instant Payouts. Your trades hit the real market. Not a simulation. You make $100 profit and want to withdraw it immediately? You can. Instantly, with no waiting period, or absurd excuses. Ah, if you were about to ask, there's no daily cap either. 2/ Zero Restrictive Rules at Funded Stage. No daily drawdown, consistency rules, or other absurd ones. Those rules only exist at evaluation stage, to assess whether you can manage risk properly or not. Once funded, they're gone. Trade freely. 3/ A Monthly Salary. Just for Being Funded. ATS Funded is still the only prop firm paying a monthly retainer to its traders. 1% of your account balance, every month, regardless of whether you're up, down, or flat. A bad month means stress, and stress means bad decisions. The salary is there so a bad month doesn't interfere with your strategy. So, what now? If you made it this far, we built this for you, and a gift is waiting in the pinned comment below. Stop trading with your own capital when you can trade with ours. Get Funded 👉 Video Breakdown 👉

FUNDEX

157,652 次观看 • 4 个月前

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j*,j*) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

THIS WALLET STACKED $230K ON BTC UP/DOWN BETS. THE BLUEPRINT TO AUTOMATE THE SAME EDGE WITH CLAUDE The wallet is $230K all-time, every position a Bitcoin or Ethereum Up or Down market It never guesses direction. It enters only when the math and the market disagree THE STRATEGY: BTC moves are not fully random. When the market enters a committed directional state, continuation is measurable. That is Markov persistence Entry signal: > Δ = p̂ − q ≥ ε Model probability minus market price. Enter only on a 5% gap or more Persistence filter: > p(j,j) ≥ 0.87 Only trade states with 0.87 persistence or higher. Below that, skip. This is what holds the win rate above 65% with zero directional guessing Payout: > r = (1 − q) / q At q = 0.647 that is +54.5% a win. At q = 0.441, +126.7%. Lower entry price, bigger asymmetry Sizing: > f* = p − (1−p)/b Kelly. At p = 0.87, b = 0.647, f* ≈ 0.71. Size to the edge, never to gut HOW TO BUILD IT WITH CLAUDE: What separates this from a static bot: Claude reads its own trade journal every night and rewrites its own thresholds 1. Take an open-source Polymarket bot repo as your base logic. Feed it to Claude and have it migrate to CLOB v2: py_clob_client_v2, Safe wallet support, fee-aware evaluation 2. Hard-code the filters. Enter only when Δ ≥ 0.05 and p(j,j) ≥ 0.87. Apply Kelly on every fill. 3. Run DRY_RUN first. Log every signal, entry price, Markov state, and simulated P/L. No real money until the numbers hold for days 4. The nightly loop. Claude reads the journal, finds which persistence states actually won, adjusts MIN_PROB and MIN_EDGE, ships tomorrow's rules. The agent is sharper after 50 to 100 trades THE SETUP: Claude Opus as the brain. An open-source repo as the starting logic. A Polygon wallet with $50 to $100. Telegram for the morning report Start at $1 to $2 per trade while it learns. Scale only when the dry runs and the live fills line up 17,000 trades compound a thin edge into six figures. The model finds the edge. The nightly loop keeps it sharp Bookmark before you point a bot at your first window

Yarchi

22,966 次观看 • 1 个月前

Everyone feels safe again. That’s usually when the market does the most damage. Bulls are comfortable up here. Too comfortable. New highs, shallow pullbacks, constant dip buying and endless optimism. The same mindset shows up every cycle right before things change. Hope creeps back in. Risk gets ignored. Complacency takes over. This is how they lure people in. The market rarely tops in fear. It tops in confidence. It tops when people are convinced nothing bad can happen anymore. When every dip is “free money.” When bad news is shrugged off and good news is celebrated twice as hard. And while that’s happening, the weekly signals are doing something very different. My weekly signal line has been warning that this move gets sold. Not chopped. Not paused. Sold. The kind of selling that doesn’t give you time to react. The kind that doesn’t let you “reposition.” The kind that turns staircases up into elevators down. That’s how this works. Markets grind higher slowly, painfully, lulling everyone into patience. Then when the turn finally comes, it’s fast. Violent. Emotional. Weeks of gains erased in days. Everyone remembers the staircase. Very few are prepared for the elevator. This isn’t about predicting the exact candle. It never is. It’s about recognizing the phase of the cycle we’re in. And this phase is marked by complacency, stretched positioning and signals that are rolling over while price still looks “fine.” That disconnect is where damage is done. I’ve been saying it consistently. Short term bounces don’t change larger signals. They create opportunity. Opportunity to manage risk. Opportunity to build positioning. Opportunity to stay patient while others get pulled back into hope. The video attached breaks this down in detail. The signals, the psychology and how I’m navigating it without getting emotional on every green or red candle. You don’t have to agree with me. Most people won’t until price forces them to. But when the staircase finally gives way to the elevator, this phase will make a lot more sense in hindsight. Thank you for your attention to this matter. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600

Everyone feels safe again. That’s usually when the market does the most damage. Bulls are comfortable up here. Too comfortable. New highs, shallow pullbacks, constant dip buying and endless optimism. The same mindset shows up every cycle right before things change. Hope creeps back in. Risk gets ignored. Complacency takes over. This is how they lure people in. The market rarely tops in fear. It tops in confidence. It tops when people are convinced nothing bad can happen anymore. When every dip is “free money.” When bad news is shrugged off and good news is celebrated twice as hard. And while that’s happening, the weekly signals are doing something very different. My weekly signal line has been warning that this move gets sold. Not chopped. Not paused. Sold. The kind of selling that doesn’t give you time to react. The kind that doesn’t let you “reposition.” The kind that turns staircases up into elevators down. That’s how this works. Markets grind higher slowly, painfully, lulling everyone into patience. Then when the turn finally comes, it’s fast. Violent. Emotional. Weeks of gains erased in days. Everyone remembers the staircase. Very few are prepared for the elevator. This isn’t about predicting the exact candle. It never is. It’s about recognizing the phase of the cycle we’re in. And this phase is marked by complacency, stretched positioning and signals that are rolling over while price still looks “fine.” That disconnect is where damage is done. I’ve been saying it consistently. Short term bounces don’t change larger signals. They create opportunity. Opportunity to manage risk. Opportunity to build positioning. Opportunity to stay patient while others get pulled back into hope. The video attached breaks this down in detail. The signals, the psychology and how I’m navigating it without getting emotional on every green or red candle. You don’t have to agree with me. Most people won’t until price forces them to. But when the staircase finally gives way to the elevator, this phase will make a lot more sense in hindsight. Thank you for your attention to this matter. — TJ #SP500 #SPY #QQQ #TSLA #PLTR #NVDA #AAPL #Bitcoin #Crypto #StockMarket #MoveTo600

TraderJonesy

42,146 次观看 • 5 个月前

COCOA FARMERS HAIRCUT - THE NDC HAVE ALWAYS HAD THE TASTE FOR SPOT PRICES AND THIS IS THE EFFECT ************************************************** Watch this video, as far back as 2023, the NDC disagreed with NPP on forward sales of our cocoa. The only reason why our cocoa farmers have received this haircut is simply as a result of sheer incompetence on the part of the NDC Government. Nothing else!! The NPP Government would usually sell about 70% of Ghana’s cocoa wit forward sales strategy. What that does is that, it insulates Ghana against any future price drops. Of course it has its own inherent difficulties but that’s why the traders are there to do the projections and so far, it has always worked perfectly. The NPP Government started selling Ghana’s 2025 cocoa in October 2024 at price ranging between $7,000 - $8,000 dollars. It’s the reason the NDC government quickly announced a farmer price increase when they took office. Unfortunately, this clueless NDC government instead of taking advantage of the peak price and sell our cocoa with futures decided to stop the forward sales and wait for spot sales and spot prices. Ladies and gentlemen, as they await the spot sales, the price dropped all the way from the $7,200 to $4,200 and still moving downwards. Now this is what is happening, you have set a farmer price of GHc3,600 based on a certain market price. Which you could still have if you were competent enough to know when to sell your cocoa. Because of that poor trading decision, the cocoa you have , which you cld have sold at about $7,200 but didn’t, would now have to be sold at below $4,000. If you do sell at the current price, how do you give the farmer the same price of GHc3,600? That’s the dilemma. But that’s no fault of the farmer, and no fault of any CocoBod legacy debt. That’s poor management and incompetent trading. You do not give the farmer a haircut for your incompetence. Especially when you, the government and Cocobod management have taken no haircut in your salaries and benefits. This Cocoa farmer’s haircut is a crime against humanity and would not be allowed to stand!!!! #CocoaFarmersHairCut

COCOA FARMERS HAIRCUT - THE NDC HAVE ALWAYS HAD THE TASTE FOR SPOT PRICES AND THIS IS THE EFFECT ************************************************** Watch this video, as far back as 2023, the NDC disagreed with NPP on forward sales of our cocoa. The only reason why our cocoa farmers have received this haircut is simply as a result of sheer incompetence on the part of the NDC Government. Nothing else!! The NPP Government would usually sell about 70% of Ghana’s cocoa wit forward sales strategy. What that does is that, it insulates Ghana against any future price drops. Of course it has its own inherent difficulties but that’s why the traders are there to do the projections and so far, it has always worked perfectly. The NPP Government started selling Ghana’s 2025 cocoa in October 2024 at price ranging between $7,000 - $8,000 dollars. It’s the reason the NDC government quickly announced a farmer price increase when they took office. Unfortunately, this clueless NDC government instead of taking advantage of the peak price and sell our cocoa with futures decided to stop the forward sales and wait for spot sales and spot prices. Ladies and gentlemen, as they await the spot sales, the price dropped all the way from the $7,200 to $4,200 and still moving downwards. Now this is what is happening, you have set a farmer price of GHc3,600 based on a certain market price. Which you could still have if you were competent enough to know when to sell your cocoa. Because of that poor trading decision, the cocoa you have , which you cld have sold at about $7,200 but didn’t, would now have to be sold at below $4,000. If you do sell at the current price, how do you give the farmer the same price of GHc3,600? That’s the dilemma. But that’s no fault of the farmer, and no fault of any CocoBod legacy debt. That’s poor management and incompetent trading. You do not give the farmer a haircut for your incompetence. Especially when you, the government and Cocobod management have taken no haircut in your salaries and benefits. This Cocoa farmer’s haircut is a crime against humanity and would not be allowed to stand!!!! #CocoaFarmersHairCut

Dennis Edward Aboagye

25,439 次观看 • 5 个月前

He paid $37,000 for the house. Signed it away for $5,147. And he said thank you. The script does all the work. It opens low. $1,137, all cash, as-is, no closing fees. Mr. John pushes back. Needs $10,000. Says the floor is $8,000. That's the exact moment the call is built around. "Give me two minutes, Mr. John, stay on the line. I'll go back to them and push your number as high as I can." There is no them. The pause is theater. Hold music for a man sitting in a house he's about to lose for nothing. A few moments later. Very good news. They came up. All the way from $1,000 to $5,147. Same terms. Cash. Pushed about five times higher, just for you. Five times higher than a number that was never real. $5,147 for a property he bought at $37,000. And it isn't framed as a loss. It's a win. "Are you excited? Are you happy to have it sold?" He was. At close of escrow, cashier's check or wire transfer? Wire transfer. The email loads. He signs. The operator watches the signature land in real time, then notes it in the file. The trick was never the price. It was getting the man to thank him on the way out.

He paid $37,000 for the house. Signed it away for $5,147. And he said thank you. The script does all the work. It opens low. $1,137, all cash, as-is, no closing fees. Mr. John pushes back. Needs $10,000. Says the floor is $8,000. That's the exact moment the call is built around. "Give me two minutes, Mr. John, stay on the line. I'll go back to them and push your number as high as I can." There is no them. The pause is theater. Hold music for a man sitting in a house he's about to lose for nothing. A few moments later. Very good news. They came up. All the way from $1,000 to $5,147. Same terms. Cash. Pushed about five times higher, just for you. Five times higher than a number that was never real. $5,147 for a property he bought at $37,000. And it isn't framed as a loss. It's a win. "Are you excited? Are you happy to have it sold?" He was. At close of escrow, cashier's check or wire transfer? Wire transfer. The email loads. He signs. The operator watches the signature land in real time, then notes it in the file. The trick was never the price. It was getting the man to thank him on the way out.

Melfoy

261,597 次观看 • 1 个月前

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

A couple of Citi analysts framed the whole issue perfectly. What if the retail investors fleeing these funds are selling at the very top, and the BDC holder everyone called dumb money is actually the smartest in the room? Their warning was blunt. The calm is deceptive. The next wave of stress will not be gradual. It will be sudden. Non-linear. That is the point. The surface looks fine. Decent NAVs. Confident managers. Underneath, it is a mess. And the mess is spreading. Now the big one. Switzerland's Partners Group. And this is private equity, not private credit. That is the escalation. The contagion is jumping lanes. And it is not just a US problem. It is global. Partners Group just capped withdrawals at its 8.6 billion dollar private equity fund. Redemption requests hit nearly 10% in a single quarter. The cap is 5%. Same move the credit funds are already making. These evergreen funds were sold as flexible private equity. Own private companies, skip the ten-year lockup, redeem when you want. Except you cannot. The assets are not liquid. So when requests are 10% and the limit is 5%, the message is simple. Everyone wants out at once, and the door is too small. This is not Partners Group collapsing. It is the liquidity illusion jumping from credit to equity. And that changes everything. This was never a few investors misreading Blue Owl. It is a full reassessment of private markets. Illiquid assets. Delayed marks. High rates. Dead deals. Locked gates. Investors are looking at all of it and saying the same thing. I want out.

Jeffrey P. Snider

22,209 次观看 • 23 天前

In trading, the common advice is to control two emotions - fear and greed. However, for nearly every trader I've encountered, including myself, anger and depression remain as constant undertones. They are the primary drivers of superperformance. Here's how: ✉️ I am usually a calm and happy person, and very rarely lose my temper. Despite the many years spent honing the craft of trading, I've never truly felt the overt confidence or exuberance that many fintwits often exhibit. Even though the primal errors have been eliminated and my game has transitioned to mental and emotional acuity, there are often times when I feel angry and frustrated with my performance, despite reaching new highs in my equity curve. It was during a Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 stream, where he discussed his mental state during his trading journey, that I recognized blind spots in my own trading. In poker terms, I'm an internal 'tilter' - I conceal my anger and frustration. Rather than showing external reactions, I become quieter and tenser. This change shows up in my risk-taking behaviour, as I start to take lower open risk or prematurely sell off profitable positions. However, this is a common phenomenon amongst traders, regardless of their experience and skill level. It was brilliantly conceptualized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the Prospect Theory. Pain of losing > Joy of winning Consider an investor presented with two pitches for the same mutual fund: 1) Mutual Fund XYZ has averaged a return of 10% per annum over the last 3 years. 2) Mutual Fund XYZ has returned 25%, 15%, and -10% over the last 3 years. Both options essentially mean the same (ignoring compounding). However, most people choose option 1 over option 2. This is due to the Prospect theory, which states that people tend to pick options that show perceived gains rather than losses. Even when probabilities and outcomes are identical, individuals tend to prefer options that steer clear of potential losses. The theory suggests that losses have a more significant emotional impact on an individual than an equivalent amount of gains. The emotional toll of getting stopped out at (-) 1R is much higher than the satisfaction of a trade where you gain (+) 1R. Therefore, like most traders, if your win rate fluctuates between 35-65%, it still has a net negative impact on your emotional state. The influence of Prospect Theory is particularly significant in trading, where we risk not just our capital, but also our emotional well-being, effort, and time. Even in a job you dislike, you still receive a paycheck at the end of the month. However, in trading, losses and the uncertainty of profits affect us more deeply because a good effort doesn't always yield a positive outcome. The joy of winning doesn't fully compensate for the pain, especially when both outcomes stem from the same process. Winning becomes more about escaping the distress of losing than generating happiness in itself. However, Prospect Theory simply describes a pattern of human behavior. It's not an immutable law like gravity - behaviors can be identified and changed. Mapping Tilt In a bull market such as the current one, the tilt often isn't about stop losses, but rather about missed opportunities and profits. It's exciting to see the price rapidly increase when you enter a clean breakout, reaching multiples of your R within minutes. Unrealized profit often feels like it's already yours. However, as soon as the positions start turning against you, tilt seeps in because it feels like your money is being taken away. These are precisely the moments of weakness when you lose sight of your trade objective and settle for smaller profits. At the end of the day, or when you step back from the overflow of tilt, you estimate how much your portfolio could have grown if you had just held on to that position. This is a fool's errand. Knowing the right course of action in retrospect is fundamentally different from knowing what to do beforehand. Even though you understand this, a part of you can't resist indulging in the fantasy, which in turn increases your frustration. This is an excerpt from my earlier notes on how I mapped out my problem. The mental framework is based on what I learned from Jared Tendler 's excellent book, "The Mental Game of Trading." 1) What’s the problem: When I'm up in a trade, I believe I've earned the profits because of the hard work I put into identifying opportunities and adhering to my process. I don't want the price to drop back to my cost. If it does, all my efforts would be wasted and I wouldn't even secure the minimal profit I'm entitled to. 2) Why does the problem exist: I start to contemplate the utility value of the money - the unrealized profit equates to 3 months of my home loan EMI, 8 months of rent, or a family vacation. I believe I am deserving of a reward for my diligent effort and execution, and I am unwilling to let it slip away. 3) What is flawed: The aim of my trading isn't to support my everyday expenses or lifestyle, but instead to build generational wealth. By taking smaller profits prematurely, I'm limiting the leverage that could magnify the returns on my effort and time - same input with disproportionately larger output. The unrealised profit is not my money yet. 4) What’s the correction: Realised profit is the only profit that truly matters. A trade isn't successful when it becomes risk-free, but when you can leverage unrealised profits to achieve larger realised profits. 5) What logic confirms this correction: It is easy to start trading but easier to settle for mediocrity once you have started. Scaling up your portfolio will require you to overcome mental barriers more than technical ones. You also didn't learn to drive just to stay in second gear. Closing Note Anger arises when underlying flaws, biases, or illusions conflict with reality. At a fundamental level, anger represents this conflict which every elite performer has used as a core trigger to channel their performance. Don't be swayed by the false bravado and portrayed perfection on social media. Superperformance as a trader involves enduring trials by fire, which regularly include prolonged bouts of anger and frustration. In the longer term, your skills and willingness to take risks are what will generate wealth. As Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 puts it, everyone is in the same miserable boat -

In trading, the common advice is to control two emotions - fear and greed. However, for nearly every trader I've encountered, including myself, anger and depression remain as constant undertones. They are the primary drivers of superperformance. Here's how: ✉️ I am usually a calm and happy person, and very rarely lose my temper. Despite the many years spent honing the craft of trading, I've never truly felt the overt confidence or exuberance that many fintwits often exhibit. Even though the primal errors have been eliminated and my game has transitioned to mental and emotional acuity, there are often times when I feel angry and frustrated with my performance, despite reaching new highs in my equity curve. It was during a Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 stream, where he discussed his mental state during his trading journey, that I recognized blind spots in my own trading. In poker terms, I'm an internal 'tilter' - I conceal my anger and frustration. Rather than showing external reactions, I become quieter and tenser. This change shows up in my risk-taking behaviour, as I start to take lower open risk or prematurely sell off profitable positions. However, this is a common phenomenon amongst traders, regardless of their experience and skill level. It was brilliantly conceptualized by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky in the Prospect Theory. Pain of losing > Joy of winning Consider an investor presented with two pitches for the same mutual fund: 1) Mutual Fund XYZ has averaged a return of 10% per annum over the last 3 years. 2) Mutual Fund XYZ has returned 25%, 15%, and -10% over the last 3 years. Both options essentially mean the same (ignoring compounding). However, most people choose option 1 over option 2. This is due to the Prospect theory, which states that people tend to pick options that show perceived gains rather than losses. Even when probabilities and outcomes are identical, individuals tend to prefer options that steer clear of potential losses. The theory suggests that losses have a more significant emotional impact on an individual than an equivalent amount of gains. The emotional toll of getting stopped out at (-) 1R is much higher than the satisfaction of a trade where you gain (+) 1R. Therefore, like most traders, if your win rate fluctuates between 35-65%, it still has a net negative impact on your emotional state. The influence of Prospect Theory is particularly significant in trading, where we risk not just our capital, but also our emotional well-being, effort, and time. Even in a job you dislike, you still receive a paycheck at the end of the month. However, in trading, losses and the uncertainty of profits affect us more deeply because a good effort doesn't always yield a positive outcome. The joy of winning doesn't fully compensate for the pain, especially when both outcomes stem from the same process. Winning becomes more about escaping the distress of losing than generating happiness in itself. However, Prospect Theory simply describes a pattern of human behavior. It's not an immutable law like gravity - behaviors can be identified and changed. Mapping Tilt In a bull market such as the current one, the tilt often isn't about stop losses, but rather about missed opportunities and profits. It's exciting to see the price rapidly increase when you enter a clean breakout, reaching multiples of your R within minutes. Unrealized profit often feels like it's already yours. However, as soon as the positions start turning against you, tilt seeps in because it feels like your money is being taken away. These are precisely the moments of weakness when you lose sight of your trade objective and settle for smaller profits. At the end of the day, or when you step back from the overflow of tilt, you estimate how much your portfolio could have grown if you had just held on to that position. This is a fool's errand. Knowing the right course of action in retrospect is fundamentally different from knowing what to do beforehand. Even though you understand this, a part of you can't resist indulging in the fantasy, which in turn increases your frustration. This is an excerpt from my earlier notes on how I mapped out my problem. The mental framework is based on what I learned from Jared Tendler 's excellent book, "The Mental Game of Trading." 1) What’s the problem: When I'm up in a trade, I believe I've earned the profits because of the hard work I put into identifying opportunities and adhering to my process. I don't want the price to drop back to my cost. If it does, all my efforts would be wasted and I wouldn't even secure the minimal profit I'm entitled to. 2) Why does the problem exist: I start to contemplate the utility value of the money - the unrealized profit equates to 3 months of my home loan EMI, 8 months of rent, or a family vacation. I believe I am deserving of a reward for my diligent effort and execution, and I am unwilling to let it slip away. 3) What is flawed: The aim of my trading isn't to support my everyday expenses or lifestyle, but instead to build generational wealth. By taking smaller profits prematurely, I'm limiting the leverage that could magnify the returns on my effort and time - same input with disproportionately larger output. The unrealised profit is not my money yet. 4) What’s the correction: Realised profit is the only profit that truly matters. A trade isn't successful when it becomes risk-free, but when you can leverage unrealised profits to achieve larger realised profits. 5) What logic confirms this correction: It is easy to start trading but easier to settle for mediocrity once you have started. Scaling up your portfolio will require you to overcome mental barriers more than technical ones. You also didn't learn to drive just to stay in second gear. Closing Note Anger arises when underlying flaws, biases, or illusions conflict with reality. At a fundamental level, anger represents this conflict which every elite performer has used as a core trigger to channel their performance. Don't be swayed by the false bravado and portrayed perfection on social media. Superperformance as a trader involves enduring trials by fire, which regularly include prolonged bouts of anger and frustration. In the longer term, your skills and willingness to take risks are what will generate wealth. As Kristjan Kullamägi 🇺🇦 puts it, everyone is in the same miserable boat -

Anuragg Venkatakrishnan

21,379 次观看 • 2 年前

.Dylan Patel forecasts that iPhones could get $250 more expensive for consumers. Smartphone sales could drop from 1.1 billion a year to 500-600 million over the next couple of years, with the low end getting crushed hardest. Around a third of big tech's $600 billion in CapEx this year is going to memory alone. And as AI labs lock up more and more of the world's memory production on long-term contracts at higher margins, there's simply less left for everyone else. The effects are even more extreme than you might think. AI accelerators use HBM, which is made from stacking the DRAM that goes into phones and laptops, but which takes about four times more wafer area per byte. So you have to destroy four bytes of consumer demand for every one byte given to AI. For the first time in decades, consumer computing is going to get incrementally worse year on year, not better. But the price will go up dramatically at the same time.

.Dylan Patel forecasts that iPhones could get $250 more expensive for consumers. Smartphone sales could drop from 1.1 billion a year to 500-600 million over the next couple of years, with the low end getting crushed hardest. Around a third of big tech's $600 billion in CapEx this year is going to memory alone. And as AI labs lock up more and more of the world's memory production on long-term contracts at higher margins, there's simply less left for everyone else. The effects are even more extreme than you might think. AI accelerators use HBM, which is made from stacking the DRAM that goes into phones and laptops, but which takes about four times more wafer area per byte. So you have to destroy four bytes of consumer demand for every one byte given to AI. For the first time in decades, consumer computing is going to get incrementally worse year on year, not better. But the price will go up dramatically at the same time.

Dwarkesh Patel

186,126 次观看 • 4 个月前