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FOMC ✅ 25 bps Rate Cut ✅ The Market Will Now Decide Direction… FULL BREAKDOWN 👇 Main Decision •⁠ ⁠Fed cut rates by 25 bps to 4.25%. •⁠ ⁠⁠Powell: It was a “risk management cut.” •⁠ ⁠⁠He noted “there was not widespread support for a 50 bps cut. •⁠...

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114,098 views • 10 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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NEW: Chicago residents melt down over the surge in migrants in their communities, say they "won't have it." They voted for this so continue to give it to them. They will vote for this again in 2024. No remorse. Chicago (Cook County), who overwhelmingly voted for Joe Biden at a rate of 74%, is learning in real time what it means to be a Sanctuary City. One resident complained about getting "the low scraps." "We come in a community of black people where we already get the low scraps... do you wanna take the little scraps, the resources that we have and put us at the bottom of the barrel? That's not fair and I won't have it."
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NEW: Chicago residents melt down over the surge in migrants in their communities, say they "won't have it." They voted for this so continue to give it to them. They will vote for this again in 2024. No remorse. Chicago (Cook County), who overwhelmingly voted for Joe Biden at a rate of 74%, is learning in real time what it means to be a Sanctuary City. One resident complained about getting "the low scraps." "We come in a community of black people where we already get the low scraps... do you wanna take the little scraps, the resources that we have and put us at the bottom of the barrel? That's not fair and I won't have it."

Collin Rugg

1,919,386 views • 2 years ago

Taiwan is facing a full-scale population collapse In 2025, Taiwan recorded only 107,812 births a new all-time low, down nearly 20% from the previous year The Total Fertility Rate has now fallen to ~0.72, making Taiwan the country with the lowest birth rate in the world even lower than South Korea This marks the 10th consecutive year of declining births. Marriages have also dropped to record lows Taiwan’s government recently admitted their models were "too optimistic." At this rate, the country’s population could shrink dramatically in the coming decades This is not just a Taiwan problem. It’s a warning for every developed nation
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Taiwan is facing a full-scale population collapse In 2025, Taiwan recorded only 107,812 births a new all-time low, down nearly 20% from the previous year The Total Fertility Rate has now fallen to ~0.72, making Taiwan the country with the lowest birth rate in the world even lower than South Korea This marks the 10th consecutive year of declining births. Marriages have also dropped to record lows Taiwan’s government recently admitted their models were "too optimistic." At this rate, the country’s population could shrink dramatically in the coming decades This is not just a Taiwan problem. It’s a warning for every developed nation

X Freeze

26,743 views • 2 months ago

Lot of people writing about MSTR and STRC. The best thing MSTR did last December was raise $2.2B in cash for a reserve fund. It put investors like myself at ease regarding future dividend obligations. It was armor in a potential bear market. The bear market arrived. But MSTR used their reserves to retire debt. They now have $871M in reserves. This is not what I wanted to see. No one at MSTR cares what I think. STRC is a great feat of engineering whose very success has put it under strain. Why? Because if you successfully launch a product with no volatility returning significantly above the real rate of return you will have tremendous demand. The low volatility means investors will leverage highly. Retail investors. And to have the CEO retweet DEFI shit products built to DO EXACTLY that is irresponsible. I'm not happy right now. No one cares. And everyone gets what they deserve. Some more than others.
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Lot of people writing about MSTR and STRC. The best thing MSTR did last December was raise $2.2B in cash for a reserve fund. It put investors like myself at ease regarding future dividend obligations. It was armor in a potential bear market. The bear market arrived. But MSTR used their reserves to retire debt. They now have $871M in reserves. This is not what I wanted to see. No one at MSTR cares what I think. STRC is a great feat of engineering whose very success has put it under strain. Why? Because if you successfully launch a product with no volatility returning significantly above the real rate of return you will have tremendous demand. The low volatility means investors will leverage highly. Retail investors. And to have the CEO retweet DEFI shit products built to DO EXACTLY that is irresponsible. I'm not happy right now. No one cares. And everyone gets what they deserve. Some more than others.

George Bodine

12,199 views • 1 month ago

Jerome Powell might go down as one of the most hated Fed Chairs ever And ironically, one of the most successful Trump’s spent years harassing him with names like “moron” & “TOTAL LOSER” At the same time, the left blamed him for “crushing workers” with rate hikes Both sides roasted him nonstop But let’s look at the actual scoreboard: > Inflation peaked at 9.1% > Fell back near the Fed’s 2% target > Unemployment stayed historically low > No major recession > No financial crisis > Economy kept growing Most economists in 2022–2023 thought a hard landing was inevitable Instead Powell pulled off one of the rarest outcomes in macro: A soft landing People also forget the context: > COVID shutdowns > supply chain chaos > massive fiscal stimulus > war-driven commodity shocks > banking stress > tariff pressure Then Powell delivered the fastest hiking cycle in 40 years without breaking the system Was he perfect? No The “transitory inflation” call aged badly and hikes probably came later than they should have But outcomes matter And the outcome was far better than almost anyone expected That’s probably why the internet turned him into a meme AI songs Techno edits K-pop fan cams “Jerome Powell saves America” videos One of the weirdest arcs in modern finance The guy both political sides hated may have quietly pulled off one of the best Fed performances in decades Wish you would have cut rates a bit earlier but can't knock his game And a fun fact is, he hasn't retired He's still on the Fed's board of governors Just no longer is the Fed chair
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Jerome Powell might go down as one of the most hated Fed Chairs ever And ironically, one of the most successful Trump’s spent years harassing him with names like “moron” & “TOTAL LOSER” At the same time, the left blamed him for “crushing workers” with rate hikes Both sides roasted him nonstop But let’s look at the actual scoreboard: > Inflation peaked at 9.1% > Fell back near the Fed’s 2% target > Unemployment stayed historically low > No major recession > No financial crisis > Economy kept growing Most economists in 2022–2023 thought a hard landing was inevitable Instead Powell pulled off one of the rarest outcomes in macro: A soft landing People also forget the context: > COVID shutdowns > supply chain chaos > massive fiscal stimulus > war-driven commodity shocks > banking stress > tariff pressure Then Powell delivered the fastest hiking cycle in 40 years without breaking the system Was he perfect? No The “transitory inflation” call aged badly and hikes probably came later than they should have But outcomes matter And the outcome was far better than almost anyone expected That’s probably why the internet turned him into a meme AI songs Techno edits K-pop fan cams “Jerome Powell saves America” videos One of the weirdest arcs in modern finance The guy both political sides hated may have quietly pulled off one of the best Fed performances in decades Wish you would have cut rates a bit earlier but can't knock his game And a fun fact is, he hasn't retired He's still on the Fed's board of governors Just no longer is the Fed chair

eye zen hour 🥶

18,609 views • 2 months ago

From a sheer stuff standpoint, RHP Cam Leiter (FSU Baseball) has one of the loudest arsenals in this year's Draft class. Was a member of the AAC All-Freshman team selection in 2023 after posting a 4.92 ERA with 80 Ks across 56.2 IP. Leiter's first season at FSU was cut short due to injury, though he showed big time flashes in his 7 starts (35 innings). Worked a 4.63 ERA with 56 Ks to 22 BB. Leiter has a high-waisted, prototypical pitcher's frame at 6'5" and 234-pounds. Has added physicality year-over-year. Compact and explosive delivery with big time arm speed. Attacks from a three-quarter slot with a low release height. Dynamic mover, blocks well with his lead leg and really drives his back hip through. Powerful! Fastball sits in the 94-96 range, but has been up to 99. Jumps out of the hand from his ~5'10" release height and flashes riding life through the zone. Plays up—and is at its best—when located in the top-half of the zone. Also where it gets the most whiffs, and last year it generated a 30% miss rate. Improved command of the offering will make it that much more effective. 55 right now. His most used breaking ball is a high-70s-to-low-80s CB. Plenty of depth with sharp, downward teeth. Almost a true 12-to-6 shape. Will use it against both right and lefthanded hitters, and last year it held opposing hitters to a minuscule .071 average. Generated an impressive 46% miss rate, it's a 60 right now. Leiter's upper-80s-to-low-90s power SL is another effective off-speed offering. Late lateral tilt with some depth, will throw it almost exclusively to RHH. Another pitch that flashes plus, and last year it garnered a 38% miss rate. He threw it just 11% of the time in '24, but Leiter also features an upper-80s-to-low-90s CH. Ample fade to the arm side, though at times it will have more tumbling life than fade. Not to sound like a broken record, but Leiter's CH also flashes plus. 44% miss rate last season. Throws it with conviction. If you catch Leiter on the right day, you could leave the yard with a 55 and three 60s on his pitch mix. The two biggest keys for Leiter will be taking a step forward in the pitchability department—which in turn will make his arsenal that much better—and staying healthy. He certainly has first round upside this July. (🎥: FSU Baseball)
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From a sheer stuff standpoint, RHP Cam Leiter (FSU Baseball) has one of the loudest arsenals in this year's Draft class. Was a member of the AAC All-Freshman team selection in 2023 after posting a 4.92 ERA with 80 Ks across 56.2 IP. Leiter's first season at FSU was cut short due to injury, though he showed big time flashes in his 7 starts (35 innings). Worked a 4.63 ERA with 56 Ks to 22 BB. Leiter has a high-waisted, prototypical pitcher's frame at 6'5" and 234-pounds. Has added physicality year-over-year. Compact and explosive delivery with big time arm speed. Attacks from a three-quarter slot with a low release height. Dynamic mover, blocks well with his lead leg and really drives his back hip through. Powerful! Fastball sits in the 94-96 range, but has been up to 99. Jumps out of the hand from his ~5'10" release height and flashes riding life through the zone. Plays up—and is at its best—when located in the top-half of the zone. Also where it gets the most whiffs, and last year it generated a 30% miss rate. Improved command of the offering will make it that much more effective. 55 right now. His most used breaking ball is a high-70s-to-low-80s CB. Plenty of depth with sharp, downward teeth. Almost a true 12-to-6 shape. Will use it against both right and lefthanded hitters, and last year it held opposing hitters to a minuscule .071 average. Generated an impressive 46% miss rate, it's a 60 right now. Leiter's upper-80s-to-low-90s power SL is another effective off-speed offering. Late lateral tilt with some depth, will throw it almost exclusively to RHH. Another pitch that flashes plus, and last year it garnered a 38% miss rate. He threw it just 11% of the time in '24, but Leiter also features an upper-80s-to-low-90s CH. Ample fade to the arm side, though at times it will have more tumbling life than fade. Not to sound like a broken record, but Leiter's CH also flashes plus. 44% miss rate last season. Throws it with conviction. If you catch Leiter on the right day, you could leave the yard with a 55 and three 60s on his pitch mix. The two biggest keys for Leiter will be taking a step forward in the pitchability department—which in turn will make his arsenal that much better—and staying healthy. He certainly has first round upside this July. (🎥: FSU Baseball)

Peter Flaherty III

25,238 views • 1 year ago

People do this kind of thing when they feel they are experiencing reality at a high frame rate. It does not feel risky to hold a laptop by a corner if you feel like you have an “agency frame” every half second. It feels risky if you have an “agency frame” every 60 seconds. You’d be betting that a hand you do not have control over for 60 seconds will keep gripping. Our conscious frame rate can vary dramatically throughout the day, and it’s hard to perceive the difference because we can only sample ourselves at our conscious frame rate, we can’t oversample ourselves. People drunk drive because they fail to perceive their slower frame rate. Their frame rate feels normal because it matches their sample rate. But we do get a subtle sense of when we’re “switched on”. Everything seems to go easier, everything feels less risky and more easy to correct. A lot of people toward the autistic side of the spectrum are experiencing reality very granularly with a “high agency frame rate”. This is why their social interactions can seem overly forced and awkward, they can be bad at dancing, etc—because they are exerting conscious control over their body and language at very tight intervals—you get a sense that they are extremely “self aware” and not “letting go”. “Letting go” in the social sense is actually about reducing your agency frame rate. That’s why alcohol is good for socializing and bad for driving. With a reduced agency frame rate our speech and body language feels more natural, less forced. More like we are flowing with the social group mind rather than being an island of constant awkward agency.
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People do this kind of thing when they feel they are experiencing reality at a high frame rate. It does not feel risky to hold a laptop by a corner if you feel like you have an “agency frame” every half second. It feels risky if you have an “agency frame” every 60 seconds. You’d be betting that a hand you do not have control over for 60 seconds will keep gripping. Our conscious frame rate can vary dramatically throughout the day, and it’s hard to perceive the difference because we can only sample ourselves at our conscious frame rate, we can’t oversample ourselves. People drunk drive because they fail to perceive their slower frame rate. Their frame rate feels normal because it matches their sample rate. But we do get a subtle sense of when we’re “switched on”. Everything seems to go easier, everything feels less risky and more easy to correct. A lot of people toward the autistic side of the spectrum are experiencing reality very granularly with a “high agency frame rate”. This is why their social interactions can seem overly forced and awkward, they can be bad at dancing, etc—because they are exerting conscious control over their body and language at very tight intervals—you get a sense that they are extremely “self aware” and not “letting go”. “Letting go” in the social sense is actually about reducing your agency frame rate. That’s why alcohol is good for socializing and bad for driving. With a reduced agency frame rate our speech and body language feels more natural, less forced. More like we are flowing with the social group mind rather than being an island of constant awkward agency.

Scott Stevenson

1,808,209 views • 7 months ago

Thoughts about $GYAT The rise at the beginning was due to the fact that the official post was published, followed by the expected decline. Then the growth spikes were due to the fact that many Influencers started to post about it. Now we have stability, which is achieved due to the community and its support. Should we expect anything? It is likely, memecoins are such a hype thing, it can come very quickly and go quickly as well. We are also seeing a sharp decline in Volume, perhaps this is end. MC: $11.5m, Volume: $46m More calls in my telegram:
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Sensitive content

Thoughts about $GYAT The rise at the beginning was due to the fact that the official post was published, followed by the expected decline. Then the growth spikes were due to the fact that many Influencers started to post about it. Now we have stability, which is achieved due to the community and its support. Should we expect anything? It is likely, memecoins are such a hype thing, it can come very quickly and go quickly as well. We are also seeing a sharp decline in Volume, perhaps this is end. MC: $11.5m, Volume: $46m More calls in my telegram:

kaize

62,465 views • 1 year ago

The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years. Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into. This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals. Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight. The narrative says slow, steady cuts. The reality is they may not have that luxury. If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates. The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.
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The Clock Is Ticking: Why the Fed Must Cut Faster Than Anyone Admits This is the invoice for keeping rates too high for too long. For more than a decade, the Fed made easy money on its bond book and sent steady remittances back to Treasury. That’s why the line sits flat. But when they slammed rates to 5% while still holding trillions of low yielding QE bonds, the whole machine flipped. Interest on reserves and RRPs surged, and the Fed started losing money in real time. Since the Fed can’t go bankrupt, it just stops paying Treasury and stacks the losses in a sort of accounting purgatory. That vertical drop roughly $240 billion is money the government will never see unless the Fed earns its way out over years. Why This Moment Is More Dangerous Than It Looks If everything else in the economy were humming, you might chalk this up to the cost of fighting inflation. But the backdrop is weakening in all the places that matter. Auto, card, and student loan delinquencies are climbing. Office real estate is deeply stressed. Credit scores are falling nationwide. Young workers can’t find stable footing. And the 2026 refinancing wall looms: trillions of government and commercial debt that must be rolled at rates far above the ones they were born into. This is the early outline of a demand slowdown and a potential debt deflation setup. High nominal rates in that environment don’t stabilize anything. They just make every dollar of debt heavier as incomes soften. That’s how economies quietly drift into deflationary spirals. Why the Fed Needs to Move Faster Than Anyone Thinks This is why they’ve already cut twice, why QT ends December 1st, and why they’re redirecting MBS runoff into T-bills. They’re trying to create just enough breathing room to prevent a funding accident while pretending everything is fine. But the truth is simple: the longer they leave rates here, the more the real economy including households, banks, and the Treasury itself buckles under the weight. The narrative says slow, steady cuts. The reality is they may not have that luxury. If deflation is the real risk, they can’t wait for the data to confirm it. By the time it shows up cleanly in CPI, the damage is already done. The Fed needs to cut faster than consensus expects not to juice markets, but to keep the system from tightening itself through rising delinquencies, collapsing credit quality, and a refinancing wall that gets more dangerous with every month of high rates. The recent flattening in the chart is the first sign the Fed knows the clock is ticking. Either they bring rates down on their own terms, or the economy will force a far uglier adjustment later.

EndGame Macro

49,704 views • 8 months ago

I believe NASA stopped going to the moon because there are ETs, crafts and structures everywhere, and the military has been recovering ET technology for a while. ------- #NEIOH (2020) - "This is actually a very ancient craft that crashed here and was abandoned. It remains intact but was not worth the recovery of this race from outside the solar system. The occupants were picked up by friends. They are called MOKAS, as their planet is MOKA. They stand 8 feet tall with grey skin. Very friendly. Very low in technology." Lunar Orbiter 3 Mission, 1967 -
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I believe NASA stopped going to the moon because there are ETs, crafts and structures everywhere, and the military has been recovering ET technology for a while. ------- #NEIOH (2020) - "This is actually a very ancient craft that crashed here and was abandoned. It remains intact but was not worth the recovery of this race from outside the solar system. The occupants were picked up by friends. They are called MOKAS, as their planet is MOKA. They stand 8 feet tall with grey skin. Very friendly. Very low in technology." Lunar Orbiter 3 Mission, 1967 -

Kab

38,682 views • 1 year ago

Disappointments surround us from all sides. We feel broken.. But we will definitely come back from under the rubble.. We in the north Gaza cling to the land like the roots of trees clinging to the soil. There is no wind that can uproot people who want to remain in their place. We are not just numbers.... We have a case. But there is no justice in this world.. My friends and loved ones.. Based on your advice, I decided to buy cat food and not wait. But I decided not to buy for a very long time for fear of wasting money. I also want to buy now so that I do not feel regret if a ceasefire occurs. Everyone knows that we have to buy from the black market, and unfortunately the prices are very ridiculous. So I will buy enough to last 3 months.. I will try to do my best to find food for cats, but if I cannot, the alternative option will be to use canned human food... I already have enough cat food to last until the end of December. But I want to buy it now because canned meat is available now.. I also mix bread with cat food to make it last longer...as shown in the video below I had a beautiful shelter before the war.. it was completely destroyed.. It had more than 60 cats. There are now about 25 cats left, and there are some cats nearby who find love and food, so they come to eat with the cats in the shelter. I would be very grateful for your support at the following link You can donate via PayPal There are days left until the end of 2024. It has been a year full of pain, patience, pain, fear, hunger, humiliation, oppression and suffering. I don't want this year to end with cats suffering as we do. Your support will help save cats from starvation I am very grateful to everyone who supports me morally and financially, and to everyone who retweets. Thank you all, friends
0:16

Disappointments surround us from all sides. We feel broken.. But we will definitely come back from under the rubble.. We in the north Gaza cling to the land like the roots of trees clinging to the soil. There is no wind that can uproot people who want to remain in their place. We are not just numbers.... We have a case. But there is no justice in this world.. My friends and loved ones.. Based on your advice, I decided to buy cat food and not wait. But I decided not to buy for a very long time for fear of wasting money. I also want to buy now so that I do not feel regret if a ceasefire occurs. Everyone knows that we have to buy from the black market, and unfortunately the prices are very ridiculous. So I will buy enough to last 3 months.. I will try to do my best to find food for cats, but if I cannot, the alternative option will be to use canned human food... I already have enough cat food to last until the end of December. But I want to buy it now because canned meat is available now.. I also mix bread with cat food to make it last longer...as shown in the video below I had a beautiful shelter before the war.. it was completely destroyed.. It had more than 60 cats. There are now about 25 cats left, and there are some cats nearby who find love and food, so they come to eat with the cats in the shelter. I would be very grateful for your support at the following link You can donate via PayPal There are days left until the end of 2024. It has been a year full of pain, patience, pain, fear, hunger, humiliation, oppression and suffering. I don't want this year to end with cats suffering as we do. Your support will help save cats from starvation I am very grateful to everyone who supports me morally and financially, and to everyone who retweets. Thank you all, friends

help cats

119,300 views • 1 year ago

Thousands of people have taken to the streets in Tehran for a second consecutive day of protests. In Iran’s capital, merchants and shop owners have blocked streets and staged demonstrations. On Monday, many also closed their shops and called on Iranians to join a strike, eyewitnesses told the Associated Press. The main trigger for the unrest has been the collapse of Iran’s currency. On December 28, the rial fell to a record low of 1.42 million per U.S. dollar. Soaring inflation has sharply driven up the cost of basic goods: food prices have risen by 72% over the past year, while medicine prices are up 50%. Protesters were heard chanting slogans calling for the return of the shah. According to reports from the scene, parts of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar have joined the strike. Security forces responded by using tear gas and water cannons against demonstrators. Deputy Interior Minister Ali Akbar Pourjamshidian downplayed the currency collapse, attributing it to psychological factors, and urged the public to remain vigilant, patient, and cooperative, warning against what he described as “enemy incitement.” Iranian authorities have also warned that anyone participating in street protests will be prosecuted. “Those who ignore these warnings should be consistently pursued and punished by the competent authorities,” said judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei.
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Thousands of people have taken to the streets in Tehran for a second consecutive day of protests. In Iran’s capital, merchants and shop owners have blocked streets and staged demonstrations. On Monday, many also closed their shops and called on Iranians to join a strike, eyewitnesses told the Associated Press. The main trigger for the unrest has been the collapse of Iran’s currency. On December 28, the rial fell to a record low of 1.42 million per U.S. dollar. Soaring inflation has sharply driven up the cost of basic goods: food prices have risen by 72% over the past year, while medicine prices are up 50%. Protesters were heard chanting slogans calling for the return of the shah. According to reports from the scene, parts of Tehran’s Grand Bazaar have joined the strike. Security forces responded by using tear gas and water cannons against demonstrators. Deputy Interior Minister Ali Akbar Pourjamshidian downplayed the currency collapse, attributing it to psychological factors, and urged the public to remain vigilant, patient, and cooperative, warning against what he described as “enemy incitement.” Iranian authorities have also warned that anyone participating in street protests will be prosecuted. “Those who ignore these warnings should be consistently pursued and punished by the competent authorities,” said judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei.

Visegrád 24

56,694 views • 7 months ago

I thought MAGA was so upset about Inflation… - Walmart CFO John Rainey has just said that new tariffs could force Walmart to raise prices on consumers. - Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison has just said Lowes is concerned about the risk of higher costs and is already having conversations with suppliers about tariffs. Question: What is Trump going to do to reduce prices? Don't say "Drill baby drill". That will have very little impact on US prices in the short term as energy is a global market. Inconvenient Truth: Tariffs, as well as deporting 5% of the work force is not going to reduce inflation, but raise it.
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I thought MAGA was so upset about Inflation… - Walmart CFO John Rainey has just said that new tariffs could force Walmart to raise prices on consumers. - Lowe’s CEO Marvin Ellison has just said Lowes is concerned about the risk of higher costs and is already having conversations with suppliers about tariffs. Question: What is Trump going to do to reduce prices? Don't say "Drill baby drill". That will have very little impact on US prices in the short term as energy is a global market. Inconvenient Truth: Tariffs, as well as deporting 5% of the work force is not going to reduce inflation, but raise it.

Brian Krassenstein

102,442 views • 1 year ago

🇺🇸 The painting above Trump was not random. It was Taft. The 27th president. The last guy in the White House before the Federal Reserve even existed. And that is a big deal. Taft left in early 1913. A few months later the next president, Woodrow Wilson, signed one law that basically handed America's entire money supply to a group of bankers nobody voted for. They decide your interest rates. Your mortgage. How expensive your loans get. And nobody can touch them. That stayed that way for over 100 years. Until Trump Jerome Powell runs the Federal Reserve today. Think of him as the most powerful unelected guy in America. Trump has been trying to get rid of him, threatened to sue the Fed, and his DOJ even opened a criminal investigation into Powell this year. Powell came out and said it himself: this is really just about Trump wanting lower interest rates and the Fed saying no. That painting was not just hanging there. It was the last president before the Fed existed. Right above the guy who might actually do something about it. 113 years later. Source: Federal reserve, CNBC, Al Jazeera
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🇺🇸 The painting above Trump was not random. It was Taft. The 27th president. The last guy in the White House before the Federal Reserve even existed. And that is a big deal. Taft left in early 1913. A few months later the next president, Woodrow Wilson, signed one law that basically handed America's entire money supply to a group of bankers nobody voted for. They decide your interest rates. Your mortgage. How expensive your loans get. And nobody can touch them. That stayed that way for over 100 years. Until Trump Jerome Powell runs the Federal Reserve today. Think of him as the most powerful unelected guy in America. Trump has been trying to get rid of him, threatened to sue the Fed, and his DOJ even opened a criminal investigation into Powell this year. Powell came out and said it himself: this is really just about Trump wanting lower interest rates and the Fed saying no. That painting was not just hanging there. It was the last president before the Fed existed. Right above the guy who might actually do something about it. 113 years later. Source: Federal reserve, CNBC, Al Jazeera

Mario Nawfal

1,380,393 views • 3 months ago

In 2024, Russia faced a 13-year record jump in gas prices after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries that caused fuel production to collapse by more than 10% in the first half of the year. According to Rosstat, from the beginning of the year to December 23, gasoline prices rose by 11% on average in Russia. At the same time, prices in remote regions of the Far East exceeded the Russian average by a quarter. By the end of the year, gasoline price growth will be the strongest since 2011. For the first time in 6 years, gasoline prices have risen significantly above the headline inflation rate, which the Russian ministry of economic development estimates at 9.7% a week before the end of the year. This year, the Russian government tried to curb gasoline prices by banning its exports: the restrictions were imposed shortly after two dozen major Russian refineries were attacked by Ukrainian UAVs and a number of them were forced to halt production. By the end of May, the decline in gasoline production in Russia reached 20% compared to December 2023, and diesel fuel - 11%. In response, the authorities classified fuel output statistics, citing geopolitics and the threat of market manipulation as reasons. In 2025, gasoline will continue to rise in price in Russia. In the best-case scenario, it will rise by 10-15%, and in the worst case - 20%, which, according to Rosstat, has not happened in Russia since 2004 (when the cost of fuel jumped by a record 31.3%). The reason will be an increase in Transneft's pipeline pumping tariffs, as well as a sharp increase in excise taxes: they will rise 14% for gasoline and 16% for diesel fuel, which is three times more than was provided for in the Tax Code (4.7%). According to government calculations, this will bring 170 billion rubles ($1,6 billion) to the treasury, of which 116 billion ($1,13 billion) will be due to the unscheduled increase. Rising gasoline prices will automatically lead to higher prices for everything else in Russia, as the cost of fuel is included in the delivery of all goods and automatically increases the cost of the end product for the buyer. Inflation in Russia will also increase.
0:10

In 2024, Russia faced a 13-year record jump in gas prices after a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries that caused fuel production to collapse by more than 10% in the first half of the year. According to Rosstat, from the beginning of the year to December 23, gasoline prices rose by 11% on average in Russia. At the same time, prices in remote regions of the Far East exceeded the Russian average by a quarter. By the end of the year, gasoline price growth will be the strongest since 2011. For the first time in 6 years, gasoline prices have risen significantly above the headline inflation rate, which the Russian ministry of economic development estimates at 9.7% a week before the end of the year. This year, the Russian government tried to curb gasoline prices by banning its exports: the restrictions were imposed shortly after two dozen major Russian refineries were attacked by Ukrainian UAVs and a number of them were forced to halt production. By the end of May, the decline in gasoline production in Russia reached 20% compared to December 2023, and diesel fuel - 11%. In response, the authorities classified fuel output statistics, citing geopolitics and the threat of market manipulation as reasons. In 2025, gasoline will continue to rise in price in Russia. In the best-case scenario, it will rise by 10-15%, and in the worst case - 20%, which, according to Rosstat, has not happened in Russia since 2004 (when the cost of fuel jumped by a record 31.3%). The reason will be an increase in Transneft's pipeline pumping tariffs, as well as a sharp increase in excise taxes: they will rise 14% for gasoline and 16% for diesel fuel, which is three times more than was provided for in the Tax Code (4.7%). According to government calculations, this will bring 170 billion rubles ($1,6 billion) to the treasury, of which 116 billion ($1,13 billion) will be due to the unscheduled increase. Rising gasoline prices will automatically lead to higher prices for everything else in Russia, as the cost of fuel is included in the delivery of all goods and automatically increases the cost of the end product for the buyer. Inflation in Russia will also increase.

Anton Gerashchenko

81,314 views • 1 year ago

We didn't upload Lee Knows cut today since there is none. The only parts we could gather were from far away as a group, he didn't have any time on the talker. We are disappointed to see that every time he is excluded from more content; first it was promotional content, now even unofficial group content that is aimed at showing how the members spend the time recording backstage, are excluding him. The point of talkers is to see more of the members, and now is rare to see Lee Know being recorded for even the talkers. As much as we accepted Lee Know missing in some content, or his parts to be barely visible sometimes, this has reached a point were we are almost certain that we won't see him when new content comes out. We hope this doesn't continue since the group consists of 8 members. We hope Stray Kids Supporters Stray Kids Stray Kids_JP remember this when we have more content. Especially on the recording of the end of the year performances, we listened to how Stays were impressed by Lee Know's direction as the dance leader, and how he took care of the stage, so we are sure there is plenty of Lee Know content that can be shown, we hope to see it.
0:10

We didn't upload Lee Knows cut today since there is none. The only parts we could gather were from far away as a group, he didn't have any time on the talker. We are disappointed to see that every time he is excluded from more content; first it was promotional content, now even unofficial group content that is aimed at showing how the members spend the time recording backstage, are excluding him. The point of talkers is to see more of the members, and now is rare to see Lee Know being recorded for even the talkers. As much as we accepted Lee Know missing in some content, or his parts to be barely visible sometimes, this has reached a point were we are almost certain that we won't see him when new content comes out. We hope this doesn't continue since the group consists of 8 members. We hope Stray Kids Supporters Stray Kids Stray Kids_JP remember this when we have more content. Especially on the recording of the end of the year performances, we listened to how Stays were impressed by Lee Know's direction as the dance leader, and how he took care of the stage, so we are sure there is plenty of Lee Know content that can be shown, we hope to see it.

LEE KNOW 리노 GLOBAL ★

91,946 views • 1 year ago

**Blood for food... Gaza groans, and the world is asleep** In Gaza, aid is not distributed... rather, death traps are set! In Gaza, bread arrives only mixed with gunpowder, and a bag of flour arrives only laden with the blood of a martyr. Those who go to the distribution point don't go to eat, they go to fight... to risk their lives for a morsel of food. Some return with booty, others return without limbs... or never return at all. Gentlemen, this isn't aid... it's disguised humiliation. It's not "humanitarian aid," but rather humanitarian ambushes, where the weak are liquidated and dignity is killed before the eyes of the world. Hundreds of martyrs, thousands of wounded, and an army of disabled and amputees, all paid for the flour, not with money, but with blood! Do you know where the aid is sold? On the black market, in the hands of those who betray, monopolize, and starve, while those who deserve it cannot reach it.. Whoever reaches it is a fedayeen, risking their lives as if they were in battle, for a bag of rice... for a can of sardines... for a handful of life! We thought the "oil for food" deal in Iraq was the cruelest thing the Arabs had ever seen... But in Gaza, we see "blood for food"! A deal devoid of morals, justice, and honor. And what about the regimes and governments? Silent regimes... mouthpieces that justify... and an international community of paper! Gaza doesn't need bags of rice sold in the market. Gaza needs dignity. It needs a decision. It needs someone to break the siege, not someone to justify it. Gaza doesn't beg, it fights. Gaza isn't just starving... it's dying every moment due to the silence of the nation and the betrayal of the world. O people, either support Gaza as befits free people, or remain silent and don't trade in its blood. Whoever cannot carry flour to the hungry, let him at least raise his voice... **And let him acknowledge that blood is being paid for food today.** And all those who remain silent are partners in crime.** The video below shows the risks involved when going to collect aid. We literally have two choices: either die of hunger, or go there to collect some aid and we will also die. What do you think is the best way to die? We have been given several options for death, and we must choose one.. If we don't want to die here or there, we have to endure the black market that is absolutely merciless. The prices are more than ridiculous. The prices have doubled to 20, 30, and sometimes to 50 times. Therefore, no matter how much support I get, I cannot keep up with the black market. Because what I used to buy for $100, I need at least $2,000 now.. I appreciate and am very grateful to everyone who supported me to get through this.. Your support helps a lot. Instead of going constantly.. I go once a month to that hell I hope I never have to go there again. Please keep me in your prayers and support. This is your friend Mo, and I want to remind you that I have a shelter from which 25 cats have survived, and I care for them with all my heart. I also have a family to care for. We are all very grateful for your presence in our lives.
0:26

**Blood for food... Gaza groans, and the world is asleep** In Gaza, aid is not distributed... rather, death traps are set! In Gaza, bread arrives only mixed with gunpowder, and a bag of flour arrives only laden with the blood of a martyr. Those who go to the distribution point don't go to eat, they go to fight... to risk their lives for a morsel of food. Some return with booty, others return without limbs... or never return at all. Gentlemen, this isn't aid... it's disguised humiliation. It's not "humanitarian aid," but rather humanitarian ambushes, where the weak are liquidated and dignity is killed before the eyes of the world. Hundreds of martyrs, thousands of wounded, and an army of disabled and amputees, all paid for the flour, not with money, but with blood! Do you know where the aid is sold? On the black market, in the hands of those who betray, monopolize, and starve, while those who deserve it cannot reach it.. Whoever reaches it is a fedayeen, risking their lives as if they were in battle, for a bag of rice... for a can of sardines... for a handful of life! We thought the "oil for food" deal in Iraq was the cruelest thing the Arabs had ever seen... But in Gaza, we see "blood for food"! A deal devoid of morals, justice, and honor. And what about the regimes and governments? Silent regimes... mouthpieces that justify... and an international community of paper! Gaza doesn't need bags of rice sold in the market. Gaza needs dignity. It needs a decision. It needs someone to break the siege, not someone to justify it. Gaza doesn't beg, it fights. Gaza isn't just starving... it's dying every moment due to the silence of the nation and the betrayal of the world. O people, either support Gaza as befits free people, or remain silent and don't trade in its blood. Whoever cannot carry flour to the hungry, let him at least raise his voice... **And let him acknowledge that blood is being paid for food today.** And all those who remain silent are partners in crime.** The video below shows the risks involved when going to collect aid. We literally have two choices: either die of hunger, or go there to collect some aid and we will also die. What do you think is the best way to die? We have been given several options for death, and we must choose one.. If we don't want to die here or there, we have to endure the black market that is absolutely merciless. The prices are more than ridiculous. The prices have doubled to 20, 30, and sometimes to 50 times. Therefore, no matter how much support I get, I cannot keep up with the black market. Because what I used to buy for $100, I need at least $2,000 now.. I appreciate and am very grateful to everyone who supported me to get through this.. Your support helps a lot. Instead of going constantly.. I go once a month to that hell I hope I never have to go there again. Please keep me in your prayers and support. This is your friend Mo, and I want to remind you that I have a shelter from which 25 cats have survived, and I care for them with all my heart. I also have a family to care for. We are all very grateful for your presence in our lives.

help cats

161,876 views • 1 year ago

🚨 I CAN’T BELIEVE THIS IS HAPPENING NOW!! IRAN HAS JUST FULLY OPENED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ In just 30 minutes after this post: - OIL dumped -10% - Stocks gained +$800 BILLION - The S&P 500 set new all-time highs The MASSIVE scale of what just happened for global markets is unreal. 20% of global oil supply passes through the STRAIT OF HORMUZ. The effect will be IMMEDIATE and POWERFUL. If you hold any assets: - Stocks - Crypto - Bonds - Gold - Or even the US dollar YOU MUST READ this post before markets explode. Here’s what just happened and what’s next for markets: OIL (Brent/WTI) Expect a sharp collapse in the “risk premium.” If prices were pricing in $25–30 of risk during the blockade, then with free passage, oil could drop 10–15% in a single trading session. And price has already started going down. Oil is now trading at $80. A few weeks ago, it hit an ATH at $120 per barrel. NATURAL GAS (LNG) Qatar is the largest LNG exporter and regains access to European and Asian markets. So that means gas prices in these regions will decrease. For tanker stocks and the insurance sector, this is a moment of truth. FREIGHT RATES The cost of renting tankers and container ships will start to decline. The reason is very simple: the risks of attacks and delays disappear. And now everything returns to the normal scenario. INSURANCE (War Risk Premium) Insurance premiums for ships passing through this region will reset to zero or drop sharply. This reduces the cost of nearly all goods transported by sea. STOCK MARKETS AND MACROECONOMICS This is where the most POWERFUL BULLISH effect lies: INFLATION: Cheap oil = slowing inflation worldwide. This gives central banks (Fed, ECB) a reason to cut interest rates faster. STOCKS (S&P 500, NASDAQ): Markets love stability. The removal of a major war threat in the Persian Gulf is a strong signal to buy risk assets. SHIFT TO “RISK ON” Crypto is the main indicator of investors’ willingness to take risk. When the threat of a global conflict in a key region (Strait of Hormuz) disappears, Capital instantly flows from “safe havens” (gold, US Treasuries) into risk assets. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates faster due to falling inflation (thanks to cheap oil) means there will be more “cheap” money in the system. Crypto loves cheap money. Bitcoin will start rising as a tech asset. Growth in the NASDAQ index (tech) almost always pulls BTC with 2x leverage. This is exactly the time when REAL MONEY is made. And you should track all the updates so you don’t miss the opportunity. But don’t worry, I will keep you updated on everything here. I will post everything before it becomes HEADLINES. When I make my next move, I’ll share it publicly here. Follow and turn on notifications so you don't miss it. Comment "Strategy" and I will send you my guide in DMs. Many people will regret not following me earlier...
0:14

🚨 I CAN’T BELIEVE THIS IS HAPPENING NOW!! IRAN HAS JUST FULLY OPENED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ In just 30 minutes after this post: - OIL dumped -10% - Stocks gained +$800 BILLION - The S&P 500 set new all-time highs The MASSIVE scale of what just happened for global markets is unreal. 20% of global oil supply passes through the STRAIT OF HORMUZ. The effect will be IMMEDIATE and POWERFUL. If you hold any assets: - Stocks - Crypto - Bonds - Gold - Or even the US dollar YOU MUST READ this post before markets explode. Here’s what just happened and what’s next for markets: OIL (Brent/WTI) Expect a sharp collapse in the “risk premium.” If prices were pricing in $25–30 of risk during the blockade, then with free passage, oil could drop 10–15% in a single trading session. And price has already started going down. Oil is now trading at $80. A few weeks ago, it hit an ATH at $120 per barrel. NATURAL GAS (LNG) Qatar is the largest LNG exporter and regains access to European and Asian markets. So that means gas prices in these regions will decrease. For tanker stocks and the insurance sector, this is a moment of truth. FREIGHT RATES The cost of renting tankers and container ships will start to decline. The reason is very simple: the risks of attacks and delays disappear. And now everything returns to the normal scenario. INSURANCE (War Risk Premium) Insurance premiums for ships passing through this region will reset to zero or drop sharply. This reduces the cost of nearly all goods transported by sea. STOCK MARKETS AND MACROECONOMICS This is where the most POWERFUL BULLISH effect lies: INFLATION: Cheap oil = slowing inflation worldwide. This gives central banks (Fed, ECB) a reason to cut interest rates faster. STOCKS (S&P 500, NASDAQ): Markets love stability. The removal of a major war threat in the Persian Gulf is a strong signal to buy risk assets. SHIFT TO “RISK ON” Crypto is the main indicator of investors’ willingness to take risk. When the threat of a global conflict in a key region (Strait of Hormuz) disappears, Capital instantly flows from “safe havens” (gold, US Treasuries) into risk assets. Expectations that the Fed will cut rates faster due to falling inflation (thanks to cheap oil) means there will be more “cheap” money in the system. Crypto loves cheap money. Bitcoin will start rising as a tech asset. Growth in the NASDAQ index (tech) almost always pulls BTC with 2x leverage. This is exactly the time when REAL MONEY is made. And you should track all the updates so you don’t miss the opportunity. But don’t worry, I will keep you updated on everything here. I will post everything before it becomes HEADLINES. When I make my next move, I’ll share it publicly here. Follow and turn on notifications so you don't miss it. Comment "Strategy" and I will send you my guide in DMs. Many people will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

916,966 views • 3 months ago

I remember about a year ago when I first started speaking out about what is happening to our country. I had a British born Muslim in my inbox threatening to “cut my head off like Lee Rigby”. Saying the usual things I often see them say: “We have infiltrated every level of your society from law, education to politics”. “I was born here and we’re going nowhere”. “This is our country now”. “Where are your big hard football hooligans now?” I can remember feeling truly defeated because I knew he was right. I knew how many were born here who hate us that were stuck with and many more are coming. He knew it and I knew it too. But it makes me proud to see that people are fighting back. I would love to see his thoughts on all of this now 😂 I know many more think like him too and they will be absolutely raging. They thought we were easy. They mistook our niceness for weakness and thought we would stay silent for ever. Our people conquered the world. Never underestimate the spirit of the British people. They could never conquer us. The only reason they have come close is because our government allowed them here and spoon fed them. So if we have to take on the government too then it must me done 🇬🇧
0:14

I remember about a year ago when I first started speaking out about what is happening to our country. I had a British born Muslim in my inbox threatening to “cut my head off like Lee Rigby”. Saying the usual things I often see them say: “We have infiltrated every level of your society from law, education to politics”. “I was born here and we’re going nowhere”. “This is our country now”. “Where are your big hard football hooligans now?” I can remember feeling truly defeated because I knew he was right. I knew how many were born here who hate us that were stuck with and many more are coming. He knew it and I knew it too. But it makes me proud to see that people are fighting back. I would love to see his thoughts on all of this now 😂 I know many more think like him too and they will be absolutely raging. They thought we were easy. They mistook our niceness for weakness and thought we would stay silent for ever. Our people conquered the world. Never underestimate the spirit of the British people. They could never conquer us. The only reason they have come close is because our government allowed them here and spoon fed them. So if we have to take on the government too then it must me done 🇬🇧

Around Liverpool

58,109 views • 1 month ago

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED!! Iran has just closed the Strait of Hormuz again. The reason is simple: Tehran accused the US of violating agreements and continuing the blockade. The Iranian armed forces command stated: CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT HAS "RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS STATUS." Until the US stops PIRACY. The IEA has already called the events of 2026 “the largest disruption in the history of the oil market.” If you hold any assets: - Stocks - Crypto - Bonds - Gold or Silver - US dollar YOU MUST READ this post before it’s too late. Here’s what’s happening right now: OIL AND FUEL Amid news of the renewed closure, Brent is pumping to $120 per barrel. Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait. The blockade cuts off supply from: - Saudi Arabia - UAE - Kuwait - Iraq If the closure lasts more than two weeks, a physical gasoline shortage in Europe and Asia will begin. Shares of oil giants (ExxonMobil, Chevron) and service companies are flying higher again. Since the start of the year, the energy sector is up 25% and remains the only island of stability. A closed strait again means rising jet fuel prices (30–35% of global exports pass through it). Airline stocks and retailers dependent on global supply chains will be under heavy pressure in Monday’s premarket. The market is squeezed between strong Q1 earnings and fear that expensive oil will reignite inflation. If inflation does not slow, THE FED will not cut rates, and that is poison for tech. Bitcoin is currently ranging around $75,000–$77,000. The strait closure is a trigger for volatility. If oil pushes toward $150, we could see a FLASH CRASH driven by market panic. Followed by a strong bid as a hedge against currency debasement. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...
0:11

🚨 SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD JUST HAPPENED!! Iran has just closed the Strait of Hormuz again. The reason is simple: Tehran accused the US of violating agreements and continuing the blockade. The Iranian armed forces command stated: CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT HAS "RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS STATUS." Until the US stops PIRACY. The IEA has already called the events of 2026 “the largest disruption in the history of the oil market.” If you hold any assets: - Stocks - Crypto - Bonds - Gold or Silver - US dollar YOU MUST READ this post before it’s too late. Here’s what’s happening right now: OIL AND FUEL Amid news of the renewed closure, Brent is pumping to $120 per barrel. Around 20% of the world’s oil passes through the strait. The blockade cuts off supply from: - Saudi Arabia - UAE - Kuwait - Iraq If the closure lasts more than two weeks, a physical gasoline shortage in Europe and Asia will begin. Shares of oil giants (ExxonMobil, Chevron) and service companies are flying higher again. Since the start of the year, the energy sector is up 25% and remains the only island of stability. A closed strait again means rising jet fuel prices (30–35% of global exports pass through it). Airline stocks and retailers dependent on global supply chains will be under heavy pressure in Monday’s premarket. The market is squeezed between strong Q1 earnings and fear that expensive oil will reignite inflation. If inflation does not slow, THE FED will not cut rates, and that is poison for tech. Bitcoin is currently ranging around $75,000–$77,000. The strait closure is a trigger for volatility. If oil pushes toward $150, we could see a FLASH CRASH driven by market panic. Followed by a strong bid as a hedge against currency debasement. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

958,591 views • 3 months ago

Ending 2025 Take On The U.S. Economy…And An Apology From The Bottom Of My Heart For My Realistic Yet Pessimistic Takes On The State Of The Economy…. As 2025 ends, the U.S. economy still looks solid at the surface. Stocks are higher. GDP prints are strong. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. But once you step back and connect households, labor, credit, and real world activity, the picture becomes more fragile. This isn’t an economy in freefall. But it is one being carried by a shrinking set of supports while pressure builds underneath. Growth and Markets: Real Numbers, Narrow Support Real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest in two years, driven mainly by consumer spending (+3.5%) and exports (+8.8%). On paper, that looks like acceleration. The issue is what kind of spending is doing the work. Roughly 70% of GDP is consumption, and an increasing share reflects non discretionary or imputed costs, not confidence. Healthcare alone accounts for 17% of PCE, running near $3.6T annualized. That lifts GDP, but it says more about rising mandatory expenses than broad consumer strength. Markets told a different story. The S&P 500 gained 17–19%, the Nasdaq 21%, and the Dow 11%, powered by AI optimism and expectations of easier Fed policy. Asset prices moved ahead. Household reality did not. Labor and Sentiment: Cooling Is Becoming Visible The labor market is no longer tightening. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% in January, with just 64,000 jobs added. Underemployment (U-6) climbed to 8.7%. Layoffs reached 1.17 million through November, up 54% year over year, concentrated in tech, healthcare, and industrials. Consumer sentiment reflects that shift. The University of Michigan index ended December at 52.9, nearly 30% lower YoY, while the Conference Board index fell to 89.1, its fifth straight monthly decline. Household Stress Is Broadening Debt pressure is spreading across categories… • Credit card delinquencies: 12.4%, exceeding 20% in lower income areas • Auto loans: 5.02%, a 15 year high • Student loans: 9.4%, rising sharply after repayment resumed • Mortgages: 3.76%, with FHA near 10.8% Bankruptcies are rising alongside it. Filings are up 8–10% YoY, with 717 large corporate cases, the highest since 2010. Individual filings rose 8%, with roughly 41,000 in November alone. CRE, Trade, and the Physical Economy Commercial real estate remains a pressure point. Office vacancy rates sit near 19%, well above long term norms. Industrial vacancies have edged higher, while retail remains comparatively tight. Trade policy added another layer of strain in 2025. Average tariffs moved above 15%, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 35% on Canadian goods complicating supply chains. Trucking: A Quiet Signal Freight continues to confirm the slowdown in goods demand. Truck tonnage rose just 0.2% in November, but remains down nearly 7% YoY. Spot rates are lower, and load postings are down 15–22%, pointing to soft volumes and ongoing capacity adjustment. Overall The U.S. economy is increasingly unbalanced. Growth is being padded by non discretionary spending, markets are running ahead of household fundamentals, labor is cooling, and credit stress is spreading. This is the late cycle phase where momentum fades quietly, long before the data forces a name onto it.
0:10

Ending 2025 Take On The U.S. Economy…And An Apology From The Bottom Of My Heart For My Realistic Yet Pessimistic Takes On The State Of The Economy…. As 2025 ends, the U.S. economy still looks solid at the surface. Stocks are higher. GDP prints are strong. Unemployment remains low by historical standards. But once you step back and connect households, labor, credit, and real world activity, the picture becomes more fragile. This isn’t an economy in freefall. But it is one being carried by a shrinking set of supports while pressure builds underneath. Growth and Markets: Real Numbers, Narrow Support Real GDP grew at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3, the strongest in two years, driven mainly by consumer spending (+3.5%) and exports (+8.8%). On paper, that looks like acceleration. The issue is what kind of spending is doing the work. Roughly 70% of GDP is consumption, and an increasing share reflects non discretionary or imputed costs, not confidence. Healthcare alone accounts for 17% of PCE, running near $3.6T annualized. That lifts GDP, but it says more about rising mandatory expenses than broad consumer strength. Markets told a different story. The S&P 500 gained 17–19%, the Nasdaq 21%, and the Dow 11%, powered by AI optimism and expectations of easier Fed policy. Asset prices moved ahead. Household reality did not. Labor and Sentiment: Cooling Is Becoming Visible The labor market is no longer tightening. Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, up from 4.1% in January, with just 64,000 jobs added. Underemployment (U-6) climbed to 8.7%. Layoffs reached 1.17 million through November, up 54% year over year, concentrated in tech, healthcare, and industrials. Consumer sentiment reflects that shift. The University of Michigan index ended December at 52.9, nearly 30% lower YoY, while the Conference Board index fell to 89.1, its fifth straight monthly decline. Household Stress Is Broadening Debt pressure is spreading across categories… • Credit card delinquencies: 12.4%, exceeding 20% in lower income areas • Auto loans: 5.02%, a 15 year high • Student loans: 9.4%, rising sharply after repayment resumed • Mortgages: 3.76%, with FHA near 10.8% Bankruptcies are rising alongside it. Filings are up 8–10% YoY, with 717 large corporate cases, the highest since 2010. Individual filings rose 8%, with roughly 41,000 in November alone. CRE, Trade, and the Physical Economy Commercial real estate remains a pressure point. Office vacancy rates sit near 19%, well above long term norms. Industrial vacancies have edged higher, while retail remains comparatively tight. Trade policy added another layer of strain in 2025. Average tariffs moved above 15%, including 50% on steel and aluminum and 35% on Canadian goods complicating supply chains. Trucking: A Quiet Signal Freight continues to confirm the slowdown in goods demand. Truck tonnage rose just 0.2% in November, but remains down nearly 7% YoY. Spot rates are lower, and load postings are down 15–22%, pointing to soft volumes and ongoing capacity adjustment. Overall The U.S. economy is increasingly unbalanced. Growth is being padded by non discretionary spending, markets are running ahead of household fundamentals, labor is cooling, and credit stress is spreading. This is the late cycle phase where momentum fades quietly, long before the data forces a name onto it.

EndGame Macro

33,011 views • 7 months ago