Food for thought #GamblingX

Yeah but those are the sports books implied probabilities,not the actual ones.

Ok

@BornAgain____ Is he wrong ? What about the vig ? Do you run with the implied probability or find the true odds ?

@PhillySharp1 I try to narrow it down to the true odds

@CKuhn53777 regardless it gives you a great understanding of how it works and what the numbers mean. MOST people have zero understanding of this and especially people new to this

@CKuhn53777 Agreed,it’s just important to formulate your own data rather than relying on the sports books.

@CKuhn53777 I get it im just giving people a foundation or starting point to understand the numbers theyre betting.

@CKuhn53777 💯

I am well prepared 🔥🏌‍♂️

Good shit!

Its important gamblers know their break even % at the odds they play. Im convinced this is why recreational gamblers lose money. They're win percentage is below the break even % for the odds they play. If you can hit 42%+ and profit at 2.5 decimal odds, why play 1.6 decimal?

If it was this easy and simple you would be rich any team can fcking win any given day

That isnt even remotely the point. You completely missed what this is even about brother

??????

Great info! And plus lines too +8000 has about 1.1% of hitting. But the people pushing the big parlays won’t tell you that 😆. I have had some success at least in NFL when I like a couple favorites with teasers over laying the juice. But each week at least one favorites is an L

I agree with everything you said, me personally I like to stack big juiced bets into a parley, particularly in a samegame nba parley, where I’ll stack 3 or 4 heavy juiced prop bets into a parley to get it to +money and done well with that strategy.

look i know you hit some but thats exactly what the book wants you to do and you know that

But betting lines fluctuate with money on the line itself. The heavy the bet, the shorter the price. That doesn’t mean anything is less or more likely to happen surely? This would only be for opening lines :)

when the line is set. it still tells ya what it correlates to regardless

Check my guy out 💪🏼💪🏼 This is some real shit thou.

@ClutchTipss This is the simplest I’ve seen anyone break it down like this

👩🏼‍💼💭Wager Detective Im your biggest fan!!!

Or you can use the odds / (abs(odds) + 100) formula for juiced odds

This is helpful I like this

Im glad. Thanks

I never knew this. Thank you for sharing this info.

@upyourlocks If you haven’t given thought to that, you probably shouldn’t be gambling (also, it’s probably the majority of people gambling)

@StackinPlenty Facts

This is tuff af

appreciate that

We want to book your action.

I like to get down on that -130. Probably shouldn’t say that but I think there’s value in that range give or take. Makes you realize like -170 should be a once in a blue moon bet.

Yep. Some of the sharpest guys in the industry, one you and I both know, stated on his show his largest and best wager ever was a -600 that he felt was above 99% to cash. The EV on it was utter worldly

their is no mathematical probablities when their is humans involved in the equation. I could just mentally check out and say it

Saved this before and saving again, thanks GreyBeard

I know you aint talking lol

lol sign of maturity fucko

what happened w you then?

Embracing eternal youth Go Knicks!

Fuck the Knicks

lol playoffs yes, tonight no

Both fuck that and them

None of this sht matters man

You gotta take the vig out of that number to tho. -110 is 50% and the -10 is the house edge

i get it but it still gives people an understanding of what they mean and in my experience a shit ton of folks have zero clue

Interestingly enough I always thought those percentages were what you had to win in order to break even. They might mean something else but they also mean what your winning percentage must be in order to not lose.

break even if you bet -110 lines is like 52.4 ish

If there's chart out there that posts the (+) side of things I would like to see that as well. Example +105, +110, +115 etc.

Ill see if i can find anything