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Food for thought #GamblingX

251,292 views • 9 months ago •via X (Twitter)

49 Comments

SpotSelector's profile picture
SpotSelector9 months ago

Yeah but those are the sports books implied probabilities,not the actual ones.

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

Ok

Cardio Kuhn's profile picture
Cardio Kuhn9 months ago

@BornAgain____ Is he wrong ? What about the vig ? Do you run with the implied probability or find the true odds ?

SpotSelector's profile picture
SpotSelector9 months ago

@PhillySharp1 I try to narrow it down to the true odds

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

@CKuhn53777 regardless it gives you a great understanding of how it works and what the numbers mean. MOST people have zero understanding of this and especially people new to this

SpotSelector's profile picture
SpotSelector9 months ago

@CKuhn53777 Agreed,it’s just important to formulate your own data rather than relying on the sports books.

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

@CKuhn53777 I get it im just giving people a foundation or starting point to understand the numbers theyre betting.

SpotSelector's profile picture
SpotSelector9 months ago

@CKuhn53777 💯

Blank Check Wagers's profile picture
Blank Check Wagers9 months ago

I am well prepared 🔥🏌‍♂️

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

Good shit!

Blank Check Wagers's profile picture
Blank Check Wagers9 months ago

Its important gamblers know their break even % at the odds they play. Im convinced this is why recreational gamblers lose money. They're win percentage is below the break even % for the odds they play. If you can hit 42%+ and profit at 2.5 decimal odds, why play 1.6 decimal?

MrOnePickLive's profile picture
MrOnePickLive9 months ago

If it was this easy and simple you would be rich any team can fcking win any given day

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

That isnt even remotely the point. You completely missed what this is even about brother

MrOnePickLive's profile picture
MrOnePickLive9 months ago

??????

Brian Campbell's profile picture
Brian Campbell9 months ago

Great info! And plus lines too +8000 has about 1.1% of hitting. But the people pushing the big parlays won’t tell you that 😆. I have had some success at least in NFL when I like a couple favorites with teasers over laying the juice. But each week at least one favorites is an L

Andrew Grizwold's profile picture
Andrew Grizwold9 months ago

I agree with everything you said, me personally I like to stack big juiced bets into a parley, particularly in a samegame nba parley, where I’ll stack 3 or 4 heavy juiced prop bets into a parley to get it to +money and done well with that strategy.

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

look i know you hit some but thats exactly what the book wants you to do and you know that

Chazinmadhouse's profile picture
Chazinmadhouse9 months ago

But betting lines fluctuate with money on the line itself. The heavy the bet, the shorter the price. That doesn’t mean anything is less or more likely to happen surely? This would only be for opening lines :)

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

when the line is set. it still tells ya what it correlates to regardless

Stephen Hairston's profile picture
Stephen Hairston9 months ago

Check my guy out 💪🏼💪🏼 This is some real shit thou.

South Carolina’s Governor 🦉💸's profile picture
South Carolina’s Governor 🦉💸9 months ago

@ClutchTipss This is the simplest I’ve seen anyone break it down like this

WAGER DETECTIVE 🕵‍♂️📚🖋's profile picture
WAGER DETECTIVE 🕵‍♂️📚🖋5 months ago

👩🏼‍💼💭Wager Detective Im your biggest fan!!!

Zach's profile picture
Zach9 months ago

Or you can use the odds / (abs(odds) + 100) formula for juiced odds

Tj's profile picture
Tj9 months ago

This is helpful I like this

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

Im glad. Thanks

TravmanianDD's profile picture
TravmanianDD9 months ago

I never knew this. Thank you for sharing this info.

outsider's profile picture
outsider9 months ago

@upyourlocks If you haven’t given thought to that, you probably shouldn’t be gambling (also, it’s probably the majority of people gambling)

Steven Golden (Manhands)'s profile picture
Steven Golden (Manhands)9 months ago

@StackinPlenty Facts

FAMEU$'s profile picture
FAMEU$9 months ago

This is tuff af

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

appreciate that

Breakers Bet's profile picture
Breakers Bet9 months ago

We want to book your action.

dakory's profile picture
dakory9 months ago

I like to get down on that -130. Probably shouldn’t say that but I think there’s value in that range give or take. Makes you realize like -170 should be a once in a blue moon bet.

Benjamin Rash's profile picture
Benjamin Rash9 months ago

Yep. Some of the sharpest guys in the industry, one you and I both know, stated on his show his largest and best wager ever was a -600 that he felt was above 99% to cash. The EV on it was utter worldly

Jerry Jone's Burner's profile picture
Jerry Jone's Burner5 months ago

their is no mathematical probablities when their is humans involved in the equation. I could just mentally check out and say it

Carltoned's profile picture
Carltoned9 months ago

Saved this before and saving again, thanks GreyBeard

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

I know you aint talking lol

Carltoned's profile picture
Carltoned9 months ago

lol sign of maturity fucko

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

what happened w you then?

Carltoned's profile picture
Carltoned9 months ago

Embracing eternal youth Go Knicks!

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

Fuck the Knicks

Carltoned's profile picture
Carltoned9 months ago

lol playoffs yes, tonight no

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

Both fuck that and them

MrOnePickLive's profile picture
MrOnePickLive9 months ago

None of this sht matters man

Ken Kaib's profile picture
Ken Kaib9 months ago

You gotta take the vig out of that number to tho. -110 is 50% and the -10 is the house edge

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

i get it but it still gives people an understanding of what they mean and in my experience a shit ton of folks have zero clue

McGavin Cash's profile picture
McGavin Cash9 months ago

Interestingly enough I always thought those percentages were what you had to win in order to break even. They might mean something else but they also mean what your winning percentage must be in order to not lose.

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

break even if you bet -110 lines is like 52.4 ish

McGavin Cash's profile picture
McGavin Cash9 months ago

If there's chart out there that posts the (+) side of things I would like to see that as well. Example +105, +110, +115 etc.

Philly Sharp's profile picture
Philly Sharp9 months ago

Ill see if i can find anything