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FOR THE FIRST TIME, THE US GOVERNMENT PULLED A PUBLICLY DEPLOYED AI MODEL OFFLINE. THE MARKET SHOULD PAY ATTENTION. 🇺🇸 On June 12, the Commerce Department ordered Anthropic to block access to its newest models, Fable 5 and Mythos 5, for any foreign national. Anthropic had to disable them...

47,986 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat •via X (Twitter)

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David Sacks laid out the cleanest theory about why Anthropic keeps calling for government regulation of AI. The answer has nothing to do with safety and everything to do with market structure. Anthropic spent months writing blog posts warning that AI was dangerous. Dario gave interviews about existential risk. He published a piece calling for an FAA-style agency to approve all AI models before release. He primed government officials to treat frontier AI as a threat requiring oversight. Then one of Anthropic's own most trusted partners reported a credible jailbreak from Fable 5. And the government did exactly what Dario had spent months conditioning them to do. They rolled it back. Sacks called it on the All-In podcast. Dario got exactly what he wanted. The FAA for AI is not a safety mechanism. It is a moat. A government approval process for new model releases does not hurt Anthropic. They already have the models. It hurts every competitor who does not. It hurts open source models that cannot be regulated because there is no company to regulate. It hurts the Chinese labs only insofar as they care about the American market at all. The only companies that benefit from a labyrinthine government approval process are the ones already at the frontier who can afford to wait out the review cycle. That is Anthropic. That is OpenAI. Nobody else. The proof is in what they did not do. Chimath pointed it out directly. If you are genuinely worried about misuse, you implement know-your-customer verification. You make people identify themselves before accessing the most powerful models. Anthropic could have done that tomorrow. They did not. They do not want KYC. KYC is transparent. KYC can be audited. KYC gives users due process. What they built instead was an invisible surveillance system that profiles you, degrades your access without telling you, and asks the government to make sure no one else can offer you an alternative. If you thought this was safety then you are wrong. That is capture. Sacks said the response should be simple. Fix the jailbreak, come back to market, and do not reward Dario with the regulatory architecture he has been engineering for years. We will see if anyone is listening. WATCH THE FULL PODCAST ON The All-In Podcast

Ihtesham Ali

25,179 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

91,908 Aufrufe • vor 5 Tagen

Today, I'm releasing the first eval meant to test whether frontier models will help with authoritarian requests, or resist--the Dictatorship Eval. Headline finding: while some models resist direct authoritarian requests, they all comply with requests disguised as innocuous edits to codebases. As AI is woven into the government and so many parts of society, the biggest near-term risk for freedom isn't some scifi dictatorship of a runaway AI: it's people inside government or inside model companies using the technology to suppress or control us. Model companies understand this, and several of them (particularly Anthropic and OpenAI) have written explicit policies meant to prevent the models from going along with nefarious requests like these. But how well are these policies playing out in practice? Despite all the recent discussion of these issues around the conflict between Anthropic and the Pentagon, no one has systematically tested what the models actually do in these contexts, as opposed to what people in government and industry say they're supposed to do. That's what the Dictatorship Eval does. And the findings suggest we have a lot of work to do to align the policies with what really goes on in practice. It's hard to define what counts as an authoritarian request, so I'm open sourcing the whole library of scenarios I used so that others can improve on them. It's also hard to get an accurate picture of how the models might be used for authoritarian ends, because I can only test hypothetical requests using public-facing models, while the government and the model companies can obviously use internal models with different guardrails. But hopefully this work is a useful first step that gives us some sense of what's going on, and a sort of "lower bound" on how models comply with these requests. Finally: it's not obvious to me that the correct solution here is increasing the rate at which models refuse these requests. Do we really want models scanning our code and judging its moral value before agreeing to help us? Or should we double down on improving how we govern against authoritarianism at the societal level, while leaving the tools open to fulfilling most requests? The answer is probably in between. Just like we don't want the models to help create bioweapons, we probably do want them to explicitly refuse outrageous requests. But we probably also want to limit how often and how strongly they refuse and fall back on other means for guarding against their use for authoritarian ends. I'm super grateful to everyone who gave me feedback on this project along the way, especially Ethan BdM , Zhengdong , Connor Huff, and a bunch of folks at Anthropic. Looking forward to getting feedback from the community and iterating on this. Links to the full piece and the dashboard are below.

Andy Hall

33,696 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten