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For years, people who've done actual data and statistical analysis have urged for more coaches to go for it on 4th down. It feels like more games than ever are now decided by a field goal or less. New kickoff rules, too. Will the pendulum swing back to just...

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Peter Schrager

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551,766 views • 8 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Do you wish Sark would take the points or do you like the more aggressive play calling on 4th down? He explained why he often chooses to go for it instead of kicking a field goal.
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Do you wish Sark would take the points or do you like the more aggressive play calling on 4th down? He explained why he often chooses to go for it instead of kicking a field goal.

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This 4th and inches field goal decision was an incredibly large mistake by the Texans (Over 4% win probability). There is no data justification for this whatsoever, and it was almost karma that the field goal was missed anyways. I have large concerns with the quality of the information being fed to the Texans head coach, as these 4th down issues have been going on for a number of years and can be the difference between winning and losing big games.
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Wait, the analytics guy is saying take the points? Almost. *Keep* the points. The Raiders made a 3rd quarter field goal to go up 6 on 4th and 7.5. The Chiefs had a defensive penalty and Las Vegas elected to take the points off and go for it on 4th and 2.5. (exact distance from Next Gen Stats). They failed and ended up losing by 3. When comparing the options of a made field goal vs a go for it attempt with 2.5 yards to go (the extra half yard matters), I have three public models and one non-public model all saying that keeping the points on the board was preferred from a win probability standpoint by a small margin. It is quite rare a team is "too aggressive", but I would say there is data supporting that is true here.
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