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Wait, the analytics guy is saying take the points? Almost. *Keep* the points. The Raiders made a 3rd quarter field goal to go up 6 on 4th and 7.5. The Chiefs had a defensive penalty and Las Vegas elected to take the points off and go for it on...

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Ryan Paganetti

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78,125 görüntüleme • 1 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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35 Yorum

Ilan profil fotoğrafı
Ilan1 gün önce

Ya a lot of 4th down decision making is centered around FGs not being an 100% success rate like many make it seem. However when it is 100% (keeping the points) make sense that it would give keeping the points an edge

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

Yes a different decision

Ilan profil fotoğrafı
Ilan1 gün önce

Very cool stuff. Is your model public?

Matt Holder profil fotoğrafı
Matt Holder1 gün önce

Curious, does the data factor in who the opponent is? Like, is there an adjustment for the "you have to get TDs and can't settle for FGs against Mahomes" thought process?

Bob Loukas 🗽 profil fotoğrafı
Bob Loukas 🗽1 gün önce

Does this take into account that specific team's ability to make short yardage? Feel like sometimes do it easily while others really suck at it

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

In this moment I am anchoring off of a league average for 2.5 yards to go. It is really hard to factor in how good a team is on offense with that exact distance, how good a defense is in that exact distance, those play callers, those QBs, etc.

Sports IRA profil fotoğrafı
Sports IRA1 gün önce

What about kicking the 48 yarder on 4th and 1 later in the game

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

Would have to look at the moment

₿en (aka ‘Bike Tyson Guy’) profil fotoğrafı
₿en (aka ‘Bike Tyson Guy’)1 gün önce

I felt sick when we missed it on 4th down after this Gut punch

Corey Grodner profil fotoğrafı
Corey Grodner1 gün önce

Possibility of missing the field goal is a not-inconsequential part of the go-for-it math

Mike Davis profil fotoğrafı
Mike Davis1 gün önce

Does your model factor in the live Vegas spread (or realistic chance to still win) at that moment? An important factor. If they were say still 10/1 underdogs (extreme example) they should be getting more aggressive even if it in a vacuum it says to keep the points.

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

Yes it does

Chris Johnson profil fotoğrafı
Chris Johnson1 gün önce

If they had attempted and made FG, end of game would’ve played out differently had it just been a one-score game or had Chiefs had ball with tied game.

dat_commish profil fotoğrafı
dat_commish1 gün önce

Is there a Mahomes factor in the models?

Raider profil fotoğrafı
Raider1 gün önce

Your not going to beat the chiefs with field goals!!

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

Says who

Syed profil fotoğrafı
Syed1 gün önce

@TheRaider509 Game would've been 30-30 raiders driving to get into field goal range. Changes picture dramatically.

Raider profil fotoğrafı
Raider1 gün önce

@RyanPaganetti Maybe for some

Chente 🇲🇽 profil fotoğrafı
Chente 🇲🇽1 gün önce

How are these models made? And is there somewhere can I find these online?

Dylan profil fotoğrafı
Dylan1 gün önce

Out of curiosity, what do the models say if its was 4th and 1 instead of 2.5?

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

Go for it

Randy Charboneau profil fotoğrafı
Randy Charboneau1 gün önce

Someone should look at Dan Campbell's decision to go for a TD in the 4th Qtr down 13 with 7min left on 4th and 10 from the 15 (which I think was the right call) but then after TWO CONSECUTIVE 5 yd penalties he GOES FOR IT ANYWAY on 4th and 20!! vs. a FG

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

I will

Eric Solbakken profil fotoğrafı
Eric Solbakken1 gün önce

Do you like epa or win probability to make these decisions?

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

The earlier in the game EPA is reasonable as it won’t be far from win probability but you ideally are making most of these off win probability, particularly second half

Kurt profil fotoğrafı
Kurt1 gün önce

Just having fun with hypotheticals: suppose he missed the field goal (or play was blown dead before he took the kick). So now it’s 4th and 2.5. Would you attempt the FG or go for it? Thanks. 🙏

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

It is basically 50/50 there

Loren Streit profil fotoğrafı
Loren Streit1 gün önce

When you're 3-0, haven't sniffed the playoffs in 10 years and you're playing your rival in the midst of a sb run all that goes out the window. Good call, coach.

Jansen profil fotoğrafı
Jansen1 gün önce

When does it flip to go for it? 2 yards? 1.5? 1?

Just_a_fan profil fotoğrafı
Just_a_fan1 gün önce

The losing by 3 isn’t an honest assessment. Chiefs went for 2 after the FG was taken off the board. If the FG stood they would have been up 4 not 3.

Andre 🇨🇦 profil fotoğrafı
Andre 🇨🇦1 gün önce

what if this was in the second quarter?

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

More inclined to go for it but still not clear to do it

Greg Saldutte profil fotoğrafı
Greg Saldutte1 gün önce

Analytics won’t tell you that the Raiders took their own momentum away by taking points off the board,,,,,,

Ryan Paganetti profil fotoğrafı
Ryan Paganetti1 gün önce

I’m less into the momentum aspect and more into the pure win probability

Greg Saldutte profil fotoğrafı
Greg Saldutte1 gün önce

Oh I was joking lol

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Steven Ventura

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Do you wish Sark would take the points or do you like the more aggressive play calling on 4th down? He explained why he often chooses to go for it instead of kicking a field goal.
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This 4th and inches field goal decision was an incredibly large mistake by the Texans (Over 4% win probability). There is no data justification for this whatsoever, and it was almost karma that the field goal was missed anyways. I have large concerns with the quality of the information being fed to the Texans head coach, as these 4th down issues have been going on for a number of years and can be the difference between winning and losing big games.
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This 4th and inches field goal decision was an incredibly large mistake by the Texans (Over 4% win probability). There is no data justification for this whatsoever, and it was almost karma that the field goal was missed anyways. I have large concerns with the quality of the information being fed to the Texans head coach, as these 4th down issues have been going on for a number of years and can be the difference between winning and losing big games.

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The Raiders are off to an incredible start and I have no doubt that Klint Kubiak will have the team continuing to play great. This sequence by their game management staff very easily could have lost them the game. On 3rd and 7, Justin Herbert gets hit while throwing, and they rule it a fumble that is recovered by the Chargers and brings up 4th and a half yard. Replays showed Herbert with the ball and his arm moving forward, and Gene Steratore noted that this should be an incompletion. The broadcast correctly was very surprised by the lack of challenge. The swing from 4th and 7 vs. 4th and a half yard is enormous here. For some reason, the coach appeared to not get the message to challenge the play. Not challenging likely cost them over 5% win probability. The Raiders then call a timeout, which is inexplicable in this moment, as you should throw the challenge flag if you plan on calling a timeout anyways. To top it off, they come out of the timeout on 4th and a half yard with 12 men on the field and give up a free 1st down. This simply cannot happen, someone should see it upstairs and communicate that immediately. The penalty mistake cost them another 20% in win probability! There will be very few game management sequences all year that decrease a team's chance of winning so much. Some things to iron out going forward.
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The Raiders are off to an incredible start and I have no doubt that Klint Kubiak will have the team continuing to play great. This sequence by their game management staff very easily could have lost them the game. On 3rd and 7, Justin Herbert gets hit while throwing, and they rule it a fumble that is recovered by the Chargers and brings up 4th and a half yard. Replays showed Herbert with the ball and his arm moving forward, and Gene Steratore noted that this should be an incompletion. The broadcast correctly was very surprised by the lack of challenge. The swing from 4th and 7 vs. 4th and a half yard is enormous here. For some reason, the coach appeared to not get the message to challenge the play. Not challenging likely cost them over 5% win probability. The Raiders then call a timeout, which is inexplicable in this moment, as you should throw the challenge flag if you plan on calling a timeout anyways. To top it off, they come out of the timeout on 4th and a half yard with 12 men on the field and give up a free 1st down. This simply cannot happen, someone should see it upstairs and communicate that immediately. The penalty mistake cost them another 20% in win probability! There will be very few game management sequences all year that decrease a team's chance of winning so much. Some things to iron out going forward.

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For years, people who've done actual data and statistical analysis have urged for more coaches to go for it on 4th down. It feels like more games than ever are now decided by a field goal or less. New kickoff rules, too. Will the pendulum swing back to just taking the points?
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For years, people who've done actual data and statistical analysis have urged for more coaches to go for it on 4th down. It feels like more games than ever are now decided by a field goal or less. New kickoff rules, too. Will the pendulum swing back to just taking the points?

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Fred Warner was asked if he thought the 49ers should have played defense first in OT against the Chiefs in the Super Bowl: “No. We just got done on defense stopping Patrick Mahomes and their offense from going down and scoring a touchdown to win the game. We were up by 3 points in the 4th quarter and they drove down on like a 15-play drive. I remember being man to man on Travis Kelce on that third down before they kicked the field goal. He ran a corner route, which I had seen him run against Kyle Hamilton in the AFCCG the week before and he scored a touchdown. So I knew the route he was running. Pat throws the ball and I barely tipped it away and I get up and I’m like 'Holy smokes I’m fried'. They kick the field goal to tie it up and I’m sitting there at the coin toss and you can see I’m trying to catch my breath still. So if our defense has to go right back out there to start overtime, we’re dead tired. Let our offense go out there and fight for a little bit and then give us a chance.”

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