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💰 Forest Finances Special 2026 📊 PSR explained 💷 Revenue & spending 🏟️ Forest's debt position ⚖️ Squad Cost Ratio (SCR) 🎙️Greg Oram Richard Spray are joined by finance specialist The Random Pundit for a deep dive into the numbers behind #NFFC ▶️

TALKING ReDS

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13,917 次观看 • 2 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🎙️Forest's Finances Explained 👨‍💼With over 22 years finance industry experience & now a pioneering football finance software developer, expert panelist The Random Pundit led us through a deep dive into the #nffc finances. (It's more fun than you think!) 📺 🍎 🟢

🎙️Forest's Finances Explained 👨‍💼With over 22 years finance industry experience & now a pioneering football finance software developer, expert panelist The Random Pundit led us through a deep dive into the #nffc finances. (It's more fun than you think!) 📺 🍎 🟢

TALKING ReDS

27,131 次观看 • 1 年前

Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI, said there is not enough compute in the world to satisfy AI demand, and OpenAI itself cannot launch products it has already built because it cannot find the infrastructure to run them (Save this). OpenAI is spending $50 billion on compute in 2026 alone and it still is not enough. That is the setup but here is the trade. Nebius is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in public markets right now, and most people have never heard of it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with AI cloud revenue specifically growing 841% in a single quarter. The company entered 2026 with an exit ARR of $1.25 billion and is targeting $7 to $9 billion by year end, a number that would make it one of the fastest revenue ramps in the history of public infrastructure companies. The contracted backlog sits at $50 billion anchored by a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft through 2031 and a $27 billion five-year deal with Meta. They are decade-scale infrastructure commitments from the two largest enterprise AI spenders on earth, signed before the demand curve has even reached its steepest point. Nvidia took a direct equity stake in Nebius, one of only two neoclouds it has invested in alongside CoreWeave. That relationship is not just financial but rather means Nebius gets preferential access to GPU allocation at a moment when every lab and every hyperscaler is competing for the same constrained supply. Contracted power capacity now exceeds 3.5 gigawatts, with expansion plans targeting 5 to 6 GW by mid-2029. And power is the other binding constraint in AI infrastructure, you cannot build a data center without it and Nebius has already secured the capacity that competitors are still fighting to acquire. At full ramp, analysts project revenue in the $15 to $25 billion range by 2029, against a current market cap the contracted backlog alone already dwarfs. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius deep-dive, the exact price levels we are watching, how we are sizing the position against the backlog and power capacity timeline, and our full AI thesis. link below!

Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI, said there is not enough compute in the world to satisfy AI demand, and OpenAI itself cannot launch products it has already built because it cannot find the infrastructure to run them (Save this). OpenAI is spending $50 billion on compute in 2026 alone and it still is not enough. That is the setup but here is the trade. Nebius is one of the most asymmetric infrastructure plays in public markets right now, and most people have never heard of it. Q1 2026 revenue came in at $399 million, up 684% year over year, with AI cloud revenue specifically growing 841% in a single quarter. The company entered 2026 with an exit ARR of $1.25 billion and is targeting $7 to $9 billion by year end, a number that would make it one of the fastest revenue ramps in the history of public infrastructure companies. The contracted backlog sits at $50 billion anchored by a $17.4 billion agreement with Microsoft through 2031 and a $27 billion five-year deal with Meta. They are decade-scale infrastructure commitments from the two largest enterprise AI spenders on earth, signed before the demand curve has even reached its steepest point. Nvidia took a direct equity stake in Nebius, one of only two neoclouds it has invested in alongside CoreWeave. That relationship is not just financial but rather means Nebius gets preferential access to GPU allocation at a moment when every lab and every hyperscaler is competing for the same constrained supply. Contracted power capacity now exceeds 3.5 gigawatts, with expansion plans targeting 5 to 6 GW by mid-2029. And power is the other binding constraint in AI infrastructure, you cannot build a data center without it and Nebius has already secured the capacity that competitors are still fighting to acquire. At full ramp, analysts project revenue in the $15 to $25 billion range by 2029, against a current market cap the contracted backlog alone already dwarfs. Come join Milk Road Pro and get our full Nebius deep-dive, the exact price levels we are watching, how we are sizing the position against the backlog and power capacity timeline, and our full AI thesis. link below!

Milk Road AI

14,578 次观看 • 2 个月前

David Eby David Eby Permanently Diverted Hundreds of Millions in Casino Profits Away from British Columbians Until 2045 In 2019, while David Eby served as Attorney General and held responsibility for gaming, the provincial government under the NDP created a permanent statutory diversion of seven percent of the BC Lottery Corporation’s net income away from the consolidated revenue fund that finances health care, education, infrastructure and other services available to the general population of British Columbia. This diversion was first announced in the February 2019 provincial budget, formalized through an interim agreement signed on August 2, 2019 that transferred an immediate lump-sum payment of 194.84 million dollars covering the 2019/20 and 2020/21 fiscal years, locked into law by Bill 36, the Gaming Control Amendment Act introduced by Eby and given Royal Assent on October 31, 2019, and then extended through a long-term agreement signed on September 16, 2020 by the Province of British Columbia, the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership, the First Nations Summit, the British Columbia Assembly of First Nations and the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs. The long-term agreement runs until March 31, 2045, creating an obligation that continues for roughly twenty-five years from the start of the arrangement and cannot be altered without legislative change and mutual agreement among the parties. Under the legislation and the agreement, the BC Lottery Corporation is required each year to pay, through the government, seven percent of its actual net income to the First Nations-controlled limited partnership. Recent figures show that in the 2024/25 fiscal year this amounted to 97.6 million dollars. Cumulative transfers under the long-term arrangement have already reached 628 million dollars as of mid-2026 reporting. Projected totals over the full term stand at approximately three billion dollars. These sums are removed annually from the provincial revenues that would otherwise support services for all residents and are instead directed into a separate vehicle controlled by participating First Nations, distributed according to a formula of fifty percent equal base shares, forty percent by population and ten percent for remote communities. The funds are restricted to categories such as health, housing, economic development, education, culture and governance, with no mechanism for individual per-capita payments, yet the ultimate allocation decisions rest with the partnership and the recipient communities rather than the provincial government. The effect is a fixed, multi-decade claim on gaming profits that operates independently of the province’s overall fiscal position, budget deficits or competing demands for public spending. Because the entitlement is embedded in statute, reversing or reducing it would require new legislation and the consent of the signatory First Nations organizations, creating a structural barrier to any future adjustment. The scale of the diversion, roughly one hundred million dollars in a typical year, represents a permanent reduction in the resources available for general provincial programs at a time when the government has faced rising deficits and increasing debt.

David Eby David Eby Permanently Diverted Hundreds of Millions in Casino Profits Away from British Columbians Until 2045 In 2019, while David Eby served as Attorney General and held responsibility for gaming, the provincial government under the NDP created a permanent statutory diversion of seven percent of the BC Lottery Corporation’s net income away from the consolidated revenue fund that finances health care, education, infrastructure and other services available to the general population of British Columbia. This diversion was first announced in the February 2019 provincial budget, formalized through an interim agreement signed on August 2, 2019 that transferred an immediate lump-sum payment of 194.84 million dollars covering the 2019/20 and 2020/21 fiscal years, locked into law by Bill 36, the Gaming Control Amendment Act introduced by Eby and given Royal Assent on October 31, 2019, and then extended through a long-term agreement signed on September 16, 2020 by the Province of British Columbia, the BC First Nations Gaming Revenue Sharing Limited Partnership, the First Nations Summit, the British Columbia Assembly of First Nations and the Union of British Columbia Indian Chiefs. The long-term agreement runs until March 31, 2045, creating an obligation that continues for roughly twenty-five years from the start of the arrangement and cannot be altered without legislative change and mutual agreement among the parties. Under the legislation and the agreement, the BC Lottery Corporation is required each year to pay, through the government, seven percent of its actual net income to the First Nations-controlled limited partnership. Recent figures show that in the 2024/25 fiscal year this amounted to 97.6 million dollars. Cumulative transfers under the long-term arrangement have already reached 628 million dollars as of mid-2026 reporting. Projected totals over the full term stand at approximately three billion dollars. These sums are removed annually from the provincial revenues that would otherwise support services for all residents and are instead directed into a separate vehicle controlled by participating First Nations, distributed according to a formula of fifty percent equal base shares, forty percent by population and ten percent for remote communities. The funds are restricted to categories such as health, housing, economic development, education, culture and governance, with no mechanism for individual per-capita payments, yet the ultimate allocation decisions rest with the partnership and the recipient communities rather than the provincial government. The effect is a fixed, multi-decade claim on gaming profits that operates independently of the province’s overall fiscal position, budget deficits or competing demands for public spending. Because the entitlement is embedded in statute, reversing or reducing it would require new legislation and the consent of the signatory First Nations organizations, creating a structural barrier to any future adjustment. The scale of the diversion, roughly one hundred million dollars in a typical year, represents a permanent reduction in the resources available for general provincial programs at a time when the government has faced rising deficits and increasing debt.

Vote Canada

44,833 次观看 • 11 天前

🚨 China's unemployment crisis in 2026 — by the numbers, and by the faces behind them. The CCP calls it "seasonal fluctuation." The people living it call it despair. 📊 THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS — AND WHY THEY'RE WORSE THAN THEY LOOK In March 2026, China's official youth unemployment rate (ages 16–24, excluding students) rose to 16.9% — a 4-month high, reversing six consecutive months of decline. That's nearly 1 in 6 young people with no job. But here's the catch: China counts anyone who works even ONE hour per week as "employed." The US threshold is 15 hours. France is 20 hours. By any international standard, the real number is far higher. In fact, Peking University economist Zhang Dandan calculated that China's true youth unemployment rate in early 2023 was up to 46.5% — more than double the official figure. There is no reason to believe conditions have improved since. And it's not just the young: — Ages 25–29: 7.7% unemployed (highest since March 2025) — Ages 30–59: 4.3% unemployed (rising) — Overall urban unemployment: 5.4% — a 13-month high as of March 2026 This year, 12.7 million university graduates will enter the job market — 480,000 more than last year. A record high. Into an economy that is shrinking, not growing. 👤 THE FACES BEHIND THE NUMBERS These are not statistics. These are people. A young man sits on a curb in Sichuan, crying. "I genuinely have no money left. Not a single yuan." He has been looking for work for months. He is not in any government database as "unemployed" — because he gave up registering. A migrant worker in his 40s, who spent 20 years building China's cities, returns to his village. The construction site closed. The factory moved. The restaurant shut down. He has no pension. No safety net. Nothing. A fresh graduate, armed with a degree that cost her family years of savings, applies to hundreds of positions. She receives form rejections — or silence. She moves back home. Her parents tell her to "keep trying." She stops telling them how many rejections she has collected. A street vendor in Guangzhou sets up his stall at 6am. By noon, he has sold almost nothing. Foot traffic has collapsed. Everyone around him is cutting spending. He is, technically, "self-employed" — and therefore invisible in the unemployment statistics. 🏭 WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? The CCP's answer: seasonal factors. Global headwinds. Trade friction. The reality: 1. Fixed asset investment — the engine of China's growth for decades — grew only 1.7% in Q1 2026, down from 4.2% in Q1 2025. Investment is collapsing. 2. The property sector, which once drove nearly 30% of economic activity, remains in freefall. Construction has stopped on millions of homes. The workers who built them have nowhere to go. 3. China's major tech companies — Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD·com — have been cutting headcount for years, under government pressure that made private enterprise feel like a liability, not an asset. 4. Foreign companies are leaving or reducing exposure. The market that once promised unlimited growth now promises unpredictability. 5. Deflation has taken hold. When prices fall, businesses earn less. When businesses earn less, they hire less — or fire more. When people fear job loss, they spend less. The cycle feeds itself. The result: a generation of educated, capable, ambitious young Chinese people — doing nothing. Not because they won't work. Because there is no work. 🔇 WHAT THE CCP DOES INSTEAD OF SOLVING IT When youth unemployment hit a record 21.3% in June 2023, the government didn't fix it. They stopped publishing the data. For months, the numbers disappeared from official releases entirely. When they returned, the methodology had been changed — students were excluded, age brackets were redefined — making direct comparisons harder and the figures look cleaner. In May 2026, authorities began officially renaming homeless people "dispersed persons" (流散人员). Not to help them. To make them statistically disappear. This is the CCP's answer to suffering: rename it. Redefine it. Delete it from the dataset. 📉 THE COST OF "LYING FLAT" A generation of Chinese youth have embraced 躺平 (tǎng píng) — "lying flat." Not as laziness. As rational surrender. Why work 996 hours (9am to 9pm, 6 days a week) for a company that will downsize you anyway? Why compete for jobs that don't exist? Why take on a mortgage for an apartment in a building that may never be completed? The state tells them to be patriotic, to sacrifice, to trust the Party's vision. They've watched that vision fail them. So they lie flat. And the CCP — which created the conditions for this — blames them for lacking ambition. ——— The people in these videos are not failures. They are not lazy. They are not "seasonal fluctuations." They are the cost of a political system that prioritizes control over people, data management over truth, and the Party's image over the lives of 1.4 billion human beings. Share this. The numbers will be deleted again. The faces should not be forgotten. Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics (April 2026) · CNA (April 21, 2026) · World Journal (April 2026) · Peking University / Zhang Dandan (2023 analysis) · Epoch Times (April 21, 2026)· Original post by Aric Chen, views are my own. #ChinaUnemployment #YouthUnemployment #ChinaEconomy #躺平 #LyingFlat #CCP #HumanRightsChina #China2026 #China #RealChina

🚨 China's unemployment crisis in 2026 — by the numbers, and by the faces behind them. The CCP calls it "seasonal fluctuation." The people living it call it despair. 📊 THE OFFICIAL NUMBERS — AND WHY THEY'RE WORSE THAN THEY LOOK In March 2026, China's official youth unemployment rate (ages 16–24, excluding students) rose to 16.9% — a 4-month high, reversing six consecutive months of decline. That's nearly 1 in 6 young people with no job. But here's the catch: China counts anyone who works even ONE hour per week as "employed." The US threshold is 15 hours. France is 20 hours. By any international standard, the real number is far higher. In fact, Peking University economist Zhang Dandan calculated that China's true youth unemployment rate in early 2023 was up to 46.5% — more than double the official figure. There is no reason to believe conditions have improved since. And it's not just the young: — Ages 25–29: 7.7% unemployed (highest since March 2025) — Ages 30–59: 4.3% unemployed (rising) — Overall urban unemployment: 5.4% — a 13-month high as of March 2026 This year, 12.7 million university graduates will enter the job market — 480,000 more than last year. A record high. Into an economy that is shrinking, not growing. 👤 THE FACES BEHIND THE NUMBERS These are not statistics. These are people. A young man sits on a curb in Sichuan, crying. "I genuinely have no money left. Not a single yuan." He has been looking for work for months. He is not in any government database as "unemployed" — because he gave up registering. A migrant worker in his 40s, who spent 20 years building China's cities, returns to his village. The construction site closed. The factory moved. The restaurant shut down. He has no pension. No safety net. Nothing. A fresh graduate, armed with a degree that cost her family years of savings, applies to hundreds of positions. She receives form rejections — or silence. She moves back home. Her parents tell her to "keep trying." She stops telling them how many rejections she has collected. A street vendor in Guangzhou sets up his stall at 6am. By noon, he has sold almost nothing. Foot traffic has collapsed. Everyone around him is cutting spending. He is, technically, "self-employed" — and therefore invisible in the unemployment statistics. 🏭 WHY IS THIS HAPPENING? The CCP's answer: seasonal factors. Global headwinds. Trade friction. The reality: 1. Fixed asset investment — the engine of China's growth for decades — grew only 1.7% in Q1 2026, down from 4.2% in Q1 2025. Investment is collapsing. 2. The property sector, which once drove nearly 30% of economic activity, remains in freefall. Construction has stopped on millions of homes. The workers who built them have nowhere to go. 3. China's major tech companies — Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD·com — have been cutting headcount for years, under government pressure that made private enterprise feel like a liability, not an asset. 4. Foreign companies are leaving or reducing exposure. The market that once promised unlimited growth now promises unpredictability. 5. Deflation has taken hold. When prices fall, businesses earn less. When businesses earn less, they hire less — or fire more. When people fear job loss, they spend less. The cycle feeds itself. The result: a generation of educated, capable, ambitious young Chinese people — doing nothing. Not because they won't work. Because there is no work. 🔇 WHAT THE CCP DOES INSTEAD OF SOLVING IT When youth unemployment hit a record 21.3% in June 2023, the government didn't fix it. They stopped publishing the data. For months, the numbers disappeared from official releases entirely. When they returned, the methodology had been changed — students were excluded, age brackets were redefined — making direct comparisons harder and the figures look cleaner. In May 2026, authorities began officially renaming homeless people "dispersed persons" (流散人员). Not to help them. To make them statistically disappear. This is the CCP's answer to suffering: rename it. Redefine it. Delete it from the dataset. 📉 THE COST OF "LYING FLAT" A generation of Chinese youth have embraced 躺平 (tǎng píng) — "lying flat." Not as laziness. As rational surrender. Why work 996 hours (9am to 9pm, 6 days a week) for a company that will downsize you anyway? Why compete for jobs that don't exist? Why take on a mortgage for an apartment in a building that may never be completed? The state tells them to be patriotic, to sacrifice, to trust the Party's vision. They've watched that vision fail them. So they lie flat. And the CCP — which created the conditions for this — blames them for lacking ambition. ——— The people in these videos are not failures. They are not lazy. They are not "seasonal fluctuations." They are the cost of a political system that prioritizes control over people, data management over truth, and the Party's image over the lives of 1.4 billion human beings. Share this. The numbers will be deleted again. The faces should not be forgotten. Sources: China National Bureau of Statistics (April 2026) · CNA (April 21, 2026) · World Journal (April 2026) · Peking University / Zhang Dandan (2023 analysis) · Epoch Times (April 21, 2026)· Original post by Aric Chen, views are my own. #ChinaUnemployment #YouthUnemployment #ChinaEconomy #躺平 #LyingFlat #CCP #HumanRightsChina #China2026 #China #RealChina

Aric Chen

63,068 次观看 • 3 个月前

$$AMD| $META is using $GOOGL to negotiate 🧵 The Ironwood pod is 5.1–10x more expensive annually ($148.3 million ÷ $14.87–$29.04 million) and 5.1–10x more expensive monthly ($12.36 million ÷ $1.24–$2.42 million) than renting 15 MI450 racks for equivalent compute. The rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence infrastructure presents a complex interplay of technological innovation, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering among major players. Recent leaked information suggesting that Meta Platforms ($META) might work with Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) in 2027 has sparked speculation about its true intent. This leak is likely a strategic move by Meta to negotiate more favorable terms with AMD , leveraging the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market to optimize its substantial investment in AI infrastructure. By examining the key elements of this scenario Meta's investment strategy, the comparative advantages of AMD's MI450 and Google's Ironwood TPU, and the broader market context; we can discern the potential beneficiaries and the strategic implications of this information. Meta's aggressive pursuit of AI capabilities is underscored by its planned expenditure of $66-72 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, with expectations to escalate significantly in 2026. This investment is part of a broader strategy to build "titan clusters" like Prometheus, which are projected to reach 1 gigawatt of compute power by 2026. Such a scale of investment reflects Meta's recognition of the critical role that AI will play in its future growth, particularly in enhancing its social media platforms and developing new AI-driven applications. However, the financial burden of this infrastructure buildout necessitates a careful consideration of cost-effectiveness and scalability, which brings us to the leaked information about potential collaboration with Google's Ironwood TPU. Google's Ironwood TPU, introduced as the seventh-generation ASIC optimized for TensorFlow-based inference, represents a high-cost, cloud-locked solution priced at $445 million per pod (9,216 chips) over three years. This model, while offering significant performance gains and power efficiency, is tailored for pod-scale deployment and integrated with Google's cloud services, limiting flexibility and increasing costs for customers. In contrast, AMD's MI450 GPU, priced at $30,000–$40,000 per unit, provides a modular, open ROCm ecosystem that delivers comparable compute capacity at a fraction of the cost. Renting 15 MI450 racks could achieve similar 42+ exaFLOPS inference compute at 5–10x lower cost than renting a single Ironwood pod, underscoring AMD's competitive edge in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). The leaked information about Meta's potential TPU deployment in 2027, therefore, can be interpreted as a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive shift in strategy. By signaling interest in Google's solution, Meta may be attempting to pressure AMD into offering more favorable terms/prices for 5-10GW. This tactic aligns with Meta's broader goal to finance most of its AI spend internally while exploring partnerships that can reduce costs and enhance flexibility. The post's emphasis on MI450's TCO advantage and its partnerships with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta itself suggests that AMD is a critical component of Meta's AI infrastructure strategy. The threat of working with Google's TPU could prompt AMD to reassess its pricing, provide additional support, or offer incentives to retain Meta as a customer, thereby securing or expanding its market share. From a logical standpoint, Meta stands to benefit the most from this strategy. As a major buyer in a high-stakes market projected to surpass $1 trillion in annual spending by 2030, Meta's negotiating power is significant. The leaked information could lead to substantial cost savings on its $66-72 billion investment, enhancing its financial flexibility and allowing for further investment in AI capabilities. Moreover, this tactic reinforces Meta's position as a leader in the AI infrastructure race, potentially attracting more external financing for its data center projects and strengthening its competitive stance against other hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft. AMD could also benefit from this scenario. The negotiation pressure might lead to small short-term concessions, but it could also solidify long-term partnerships with Meta, ensuring continued demand for MI450 and other AI hardware solutions. Initially Meta's 42% allocation to AMD MI300X and its partnerships with Oracle, Dell, and HP indicates a deep integration of AMD's technology into Meta's infrastructure, which could be leveraged to maintain this relationship. For AMD, retaining Meta as a large key customer is crucial to capturing a larger share of the rapidly growing data center infrastructure market, driven by the insatiable demand for AI compute power. Google, on the other hand, faces a more limited benefit from this leaked information. While securing Meta as a customer would reinforce its position in the AI hardware market, the high cost and ecosystem lock-in of the Ironwood TPU might deter Meta from fully committing to this solution. The leaked information could prompt Google to reconsider its pricing or ecosystem strategy to remain competitive, but the immediate impact is likely to be minimal compared to the potential gains for Meta and AMD. Investors and market analysts also stand to benefit from this information, as it provides insights into the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market. Adjustments in portfolios based on anticipated shifts in market share and profitability could lead to opportunities for those who correctly anticipate outcomes. The negotiation dynamic might introduce volatility, but it also highlights the strategic importance of cost-effective solutions in the AI infrastructure space. Lastly, the leaked information about Meta potentially working with Google's TPU in 2027 is likely a strategic move to negotiate with AMD, leveraging the competitive landscape to optimize its AI infrastructure investment. Meta, as the primary negotiator, stands to gain the most by securing better terms from AMD, reducing costs, and enhancing its financial flexibility. AMD, while initially at risk, could benefit from retaining a key customer and solidifying its market position. Google faces limited immediate benefits but may need to adapt its strategy to remain competitive. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of technology, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering in the AI hardware market, where cost-effectiveness and scalability are paramount. As the data center infrastructure market continues to grow, the outcomes of such negotiations will shape the future of AI development and deployment.$

$AMD| $META is using $GOOGL to negotiate 🧵 The Ironwood pod is 5.1–10x more expensive annually ($148.3 million ÷ $14.87–$29.04 million) and 5.1–10x more expensive monthly ($12.36 million ÷ $1.24–$2.42 million) than renting 15 MI450 racks for equivalent compute. The rapidly evolving landscape of artificial intelligence infrastructure presents a complex interplay of technological innovation, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering among major players. Recent leaked information suggesting that Meta Platforms ($META) might work with Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) in 2027 has sparked speculation about its true intent. This leak is likely a strategic move by Meta to negotiate more favorable terms with AMD , leveraging the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market to optimize its substantial investment in AI infrastructure. By examining the key elements of this scenario Meta's investment strategy, the comparative advantages of AMD's MI450 and Google's Ironwood TPU, and the broader market context; we can discern the potential beneficiaries and the strategic implications of this information. Meta's aggressive pursuit of AI capabilities is underscored by its planned expenditure of $66-72 billion on AI infrastructure in 2025, with expectations to escalate significantly in 2026. This investment is part of a broader strategy to build "titan clusters" like Prometheus, which are projected to reach 1 gigawatt of compute power by 2026. Such a scale of investment reflects Meta's recognition of the critical role that AI will play in its future growth, particularly in enhancing its social media platforms and developing new AI-driven applications. However, the financial burden of this infrastructure buildout necessitates a careful consideration of cost-effectiveness and scalability, which brings us to the leaked information about potential collaboration with Google's Ironwood TPU. Google's Ironwood TPU, introduced as the seventh-generation ASIC optimized for TensorFlow-based inference, represents a high-cost, cloud-locked solution priced at $445 million per pod (9,216 chips) over three years. This model, while offering significant performance gains and power efficiency, is tailored for pod-scale deployment and integrated with Google's cloud services, limiting flexibility and increasing costs for customers. In contrast, AMD's MI450 GPU, priced at $30,000–$40,000 per unit, provides a modular, open ROCm ecosystem that delivers comparable compute capacity at a fraction of the cost. Renting 15 MI450 racks could achieve similar 42+ exaFLOPS inference compute at 5–10x lower cost than renting a single Ironwood pod, underscoring AMD's competitive edge in terms of total cost of ownership (TCO). The leaked information about Meta's potential TPU deployment in 2027, therefore, can be interpreted as a negotiating tactic rather than a definitive shift in strategy. By signaling interest in Google's solution, Meta may be attempting to pressure AMD into offering more favorable terms/prices for 5-10GW. This tactic aligns with Meta's broader goal to finance most of its AI spend internally while exploring partnerships that can reduce costs and enhance flexibility. The post's emphasis on MI450's TCO advantage and its partnerships with major players like OpenAI, Microsoft, and Meta itself suggests that AMD is a critical component of Meta's AI infrastructure strategy. The threat of working with Google's TPU could prompt AMD to reassess its pricing, provide additional support, or offer incentives to retain Meta as a customer, thereby securing or expanding its market share. From a logical standpoint, Meta stands to benefit the most from this strategy. As a major buyer in a high-stakes market projected to surpass $1 trillion in annual spending by 2030, Meta's negotiating power is significant. The leaked information could lead to substantial cost savings on its $66-72 billion investment, enhancing its financial flexibility and allowing for further investment in AI capabilities. Moreover, this tactic reinforces Meta's position as a leader in the AI infrastructure race, potentially attracting more external financing for its data center projects and strengthening its competitive stance against other hyperscalers like Amazon and Microsoft. AMD could also benefit from this scenario. The negotiation pressure might lead to small short-term concessions, but it could also solidify long-term partnerships with Meta, ensuring continued demand for MI450 and other AI hardware solutions. Initially Meta's 42% allocation to AMD MI300X and its partnerships with Oracle, Dell, and HP indicates a deep integration of AMD's technology into Meta's infrastructure, which could be leveraged to maintain this relationship. For AMD, retaining Meta as a large key customer is crucial to capturing a larger share of the rapidly growing data center infrastructure market, driven by the insatiable demand for AI compute power. Google, on the other hand, faces a more limited benefit from this leaked information. While securing Meta as a customer would reinforce its position in the AI hardware market, the high cost and ecosystem lock-in of the Ironwood TPU might deter Meta from fully committing to this solution. The leaked information could prompt Google to reconsider its pricing or ecosystem strategy to remain competitive, but the immediate impact is likely to be minimal compared to the potential gains for Meta and AMD. Investors and market analysts also stand to benefit from this information, as it provides insights into the competitive dynamics of the AI hardware market. Adjustments in portfolios based on anticipated shifts in market share and profitability could lead to opportunities for those who correctly anticipate outcomes. The negotiation dynamic might introduce volatility, but it also highlights the strategic importance of cost-effective solutions in the AI infrastructure space. Lastly, the leaked information about Meta potentially working with Google's TPU in 2027 is likely a strategic move to negotiate with AMD, leveraging the competitive landscape to optimize its AI infrastructure investment. Meta, as the primary negotiator, stands to gain the most by securing better terms from AMD, reducing costs, and enhancing its financial flexibility. AMD, while initially at risk, could benefit from retaining a key customer and solidifying its market position. Google faces limited immediate benefits but may need to adapt its strategy to remain competitive. This scenario underscores the complex interplay of technology, market dynamics, and strategic maneuvering in the AI hardware market, where cost-effectiveness and scalability are paramount. As the data center infrastructure market continues to grow, the outcomes of such negotiations will shape the future of AI development and deployment.

Mike

182,273 次观看 • 8 个月前

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

$AMD $620/share is too conservative for 2026 🧵 Some quick facts before I dive into this super long thread: $META allocated 42% GPUs to $AMD and 58% to $NVDA OpenAI allocated 6GW(38%) to $AMD and 10GW to $NVDA My $620 PT below by end of 2026 was only for 10-15% market share. I believe $AMD is going to have much much higher market share than I projected. The AI accelerator market is exploding, projected to reach $500 billion by 2028(is now heading $1Tril), driven by insatiable demand for training and inference compute in large language models (LLMs), recommendation systems, and autonomous systems. Nvidia ($NVDA) has long held a stranglehold, commanding over 90% market share through its CUDA ecosystem and superior rack-scale solutions. However, AMD is mounting a formidable challenge, leveraging cost advantages, open-source software momentum, and hyperscaler partnerships to erode Nvidia's moat. Recent deals—such as Meta's ($META) allocation of 42% of its GPU capacity to AMD and OpenAI's commitment to 6GW of AMD compute (versus 10GW for Nvidia)—signal a tipping point. At the forefront is AMD's Instinct MI450 series, a next-generation AI GPU slated for H2 2026 launch, which promises "no-excuses" leadership in training, inference, and distributed workloads. This analysis dissects how AMD will capture more market share and why hyperscalers like $Meta , xAI , Oracle , and others are poised to become voracious buyers of the MI450. AMD's AI GPU revenue has surged from negligible levels in 2022 to an estimated $4-5 billion in 2025, capturing ~6% of the data center GPU market. This growth stems from the Instinct MI300X, which offers 141GB of HBM3 memory and competitive FP8/FP16 performance at 20-30% lower cost than Nvidia's H100. Hyperscalers, facing NVIDIA 's overcharging, have turned to AMD for diversification. Meta, for instance, plans 600,000 H100-equivalent GPUs by end-2024, with ~42% (or 250,000+ units) sourced from AMD's MI300 series for inference tasks like image editing and AI assistants. Similarly, OpenAI's recent multi-year deal commits to 6GW of AMD compute—equivalent to ~300,000-400,000 MI450 GPUs—starting with 1GW in 2026, explicitly to counterbalance its 10GW Nvidia allocation. These aren't one-offs. Microsoft Azure, Amazon AWS, and Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) have integrated MI300X for AI workloads, with Oracle deploying 30,000 MI355X units in zettascale clusters. xAI, Elon Musk Musk's AI venture, ran 30% of Grok-1's production traffic on MI300X GPUs and has confirmed ongoing purchases. Collectively, these partners represent over $400 billion in projected AI infrastructure spend through 2028, with AMD targeting up to 40% market share. For those that subscribed, I wrote a specific thread on how AMD "secret weapon" is going to change the game in 2026 with an improved designs on all its products, yes AMD has patent on it. Software is the linchpin. AMD's ROCm platform, once derided as "half-baked," now supports day-zero integration for Llama-4, DeepSeek V3, and GPT-OSS models—closing the CUDA gap. Benchmarks show MI355X (MI450 precursor) outperforming Nvidia's B200 in inference by 1.5-2x on memory-bound tasks, at 25-35% lower TCO. For training, MI450's rack-scale IF128 configuration (128 GPUs, 1.4 PB/s intra-rack bandwidth) rivals Nvidia's VR200 NVL144, enabling clusters like xAI's Colossus (scaling to 1M GPUs). My below thread projected Etimated conservative FY 25 revenue: $34-$36B Estimated conservative FY 26 revenue: $55B-$62B Below is why $AMD is revenue is going to be much higher after OpenAI deal. 1. OpenAI 1GW in 2026. With high demand for MI355X at $30,000k+ per unit, with MI450 is likely to be sold in the $45k-$55k. We can safely calcuate 1GW would require roughly 400,000 MI450 GPUs. or Roughly ~$20B revenue in 2026 alone from OpenAI. That would mean $AMD would hit $56B just from one partnership(OpenAI) in 2026 2. $META, the biggest spender on AI Infrastructure right now, Daddy Zuckerberg bought 250,000+ MI300, and is buying MI355X for recommendation engines and Llama training. It is very unlikely for Daddy Zuck to slow down AMD Chips, due to its Inference superiority to NVDA Chips. Most likely we will see at least 300,000-400,000 MI355X ordered from now toward end of H1 2025. And another 300,000-500,000 MI450 by H2 2025. Or ~$20B from just Meta in H2 alone, excluded H1. 3. xAI : Musk confirmed "AMD GPUs work very well" for Grok's small/medium models, with 30% of Grok-1 on MI300X. xAI's Colossus (200K+ GPUs, targeting 1M) and Oracle partnership (via OCI's MI355X cluster) position it for MI450 trials in H1 2026. With $6B funding and Grok integration into Oracle services, xAI could allocate 10-20% ($10B-$15B) to MI450 for distributed inference. We haven't heard the detail from Daddy Elon Musk yet, but most likely not going to be spending less than OpenAI or Sam Altman 4. Oracle ($ORCL): A multi-billion-dollar MI355X deal powers OCI's AI superclusters, with $500B+ remaining performance obligations. Larry Ellison's zettascale ambitions and xAI/OpenAI integrations make Oracle a MI450 anchor tenant—projected 50-100k units ($15B+ spend) for enterprise AI platforms. $ORCL is likely to spend more on the new "secret weapon" due to its capability in AI inference and cost advantage for $500B backlog. 5. Others ( Microsoft , Amazon , Saudi+other countries): Microsoft (Azure MI300X for training) and Amazon ($148B 15-year spend) test MI450 via Stargate ($500B with Oracle/SoftBank). Emerging buyers like G42 (5GW UAE campus), Crusoe, and Hot Aisle add 5-10GW demand. These potentially would add $15B-$30B in 2026 alone. We also need to factor in $TSM supply constraint( $NVDA is TSMC favorite), so $AMD market cap/growth is being tamed by TSMC. So what are you saying Mike, well $AMD 2026 revenue could hit $90-$100B by end of 2026 or nearly 185% growth YoYo. So what does that mean for valuation? I have no idea how Mr. Market gonna value AMD in 2026 with 3 digits growth. My Conservative $620 was my best projection until today with OpenAI partnership. I'm telling you as one of the biggest AMD bull, that I will leave it to "smart money" and other investors to do the price discovery while I'm chilling and writing DDs daily. Lastly, AMD's MI450 isn't hype—it's a calibrated strike at Nvidia's vulnerabilities, amplified by hyperscaler bets like Meta's 42% allocation and OpenAI's 6GW lifeline. By prioritizing inference efficiency, rack-scale innovation, and open ecosystems, AMD will siphon 10-15% share in 2026, scaling to 20%+ as TCO trumps CUDA loyalty. Meta, xAI, Oracle et al. aren't passive; they're active co-designers, betting billions on MI450 to fuel AGI pursuits without Nvidia's premium. For investors, this is AMD's inflection Per Dr. Lisa Su Not Financial Advice!

Mike

711,006 次观看 • 10 个月前

A few words about the MANTRA | The EVM L1 for RWAs situation — from our perspective. BlockHunters has been a validator and community builder for MANTRA since even BlockHunters was LIVE. We’ve supported the mission of bridging real-world finance with onchain infrastructure, and we’ve witnessed the team’s resilience and responsiveness firsthand. This recent period has tested the strength of the community, but we believe it also highlights MANTRA’s willingness to listen, evolve, and act with integrity. We stand behind the project, its leadership, and its future — and we’re proud to continue building alongside them. Two weeks ago, the price of $OM — the native token of MANTRA Chain — suddenly crashed. People were confused and upset. Many thought the MANTRA team might have sold tokens, causing the drop. But according to current statements from the team, that is not what happened. What actually occurred was a liquidation cascade on centralized exchanges. That means some people who had borrowed money to hold $OM were automatically forced to sell when the price dipped — and that selling triggered more selling, like a chain reaction. The end result? A fast and painful crash. Understandably, the community was shaken. In response, MANTRA’s founder JP Mullin has made a public and symbolic commitment: he’s burning all of his 150 million $OM team tokens — permanently removing them from circulation to restore trust. BREAKING DOWN THE SITUATION – COMMUNITY-SOURCED SUMMARY A respected community member, Crypto Fundamentalist, shared a helpful breakdown of the current state of the $OM situation, based on JP’s public updates and community communications. Main takeaways: - No sales by the Mantra team during the price crash. - Evidence of large liquidations on centralized exchanges triggering a cascade. - A token buyback and supply burn program is coming. - JP has committed to burning his own allocation. - A dashboard with live token bucket balances is in the works. - Further transparency reports (including fundraising history) are expected. - Legal investigations are ongoing. - More clarity to come, especially from exchange-side data. 150 MILLION OM BURN – SYMBOLIC AND STRATEGIC JP Mullin has committed to burning his full 150 million OM token allocation. These tokens were originally staked at MANTRA’s mainnet launch in October 2024 to help secure the network. Here’s how it’s going down: - The tokens are currently unstaking - They will be sent to the burn address on April 29, 2025 - This burn will reduce the total supply of OM by 8.24% ON-CHAIN EFFECTS: APR BOOST FOR STAKERS Once the burn is complete: - Total Supply: Decreases from 1.82B → 1.67B OM - Staked Tokens: Decrease from 571.8M → 421.8M OM - Bonded Ratio: Drops from 31.47% → 25.30% - APR Increases: Stakers benefit directly from higher yields This move improves tokenomics while rewarding long-term participants in the ecosystem. TOKEN BUYBACK PROGRAM – STILL TO BE ANNOUNCED MANTRA is also planning an official token buyback and burn program, potentially targeting an additional 150 million OM. This would bring the total burn to 300 million OM, further reducing supply. While details are still in development, this initiative is expected to strengthen OM’s position in the market. WHAT IS MANTRA? MANTRA is a regulatory-compliant, real-world asset (RWA) Layer 1 blockchain. Built for developers, institutions, and the next wave of tokenized finance, MANTRA offers: - RWA tokenization infrastructure - Compliance modules and permissionless access - Interoperability with major blockchains MANTRA holds a VARA license from Dubai to operate as a Virtual Asset Exchange, Broker-Dealer, and Investment Management entity. JP'S OFFICIAL STATEMENT (25th April 2025) “This has been humbling. And heartbreaking. We need to take a moment to regroup and make sound decisions. I promise that our team won't rest until we've made this right.Every day, we continue to investigate what happened and develop plans to prevent it from happening again. Next week at TOKEN2049 in Dubai, I’ll be speaking and releasing concrete next steps for MANTRA — including enhanced governance, transparency reports, and the full execution of my token burn.We’re listening. We’re working around the clock. And we’re not backing down from the responsibility we owe to this community.”— JP Mullin 🫡🕉️ WE BACK MANTRA At BlockHunters, we’ve had the privilege of working closely with - across multiple collaborations and community efforts. Through the ups and downs, one thing has remained clear: MANTRA is building for the long term. Their transparent handling of recent events, commitment to decentralization, and push for token-holder alignment earns our full support. We stand behind MANTRA and their mission to redefine the tokenized asset space. Last year, we had the pleasure of welcoming JP on our podcast — long before this incident — for a deep dive into MANTRA’s vision, regulatory alignment, and the future of tokenized finance. 🫡🕉️

A few words about the MANTRA | The EVM L1 for RWAs situation — from our perspective. BlockHunters has been a validator and community builder for MANTRA since even BlockHunters was LIVE. We’ve supported the mission of bridging real-world finance with onchain infrastructure, and we’ve witnessed the team’s resilience and responsiveness firsthand. This recent period has tested the strength of the community, but we believe it also highlights MANTRA’s willingness to listen, evolve, and act with integrity. We stand behind the project, its leadership, and its future — and we’re proud to continue building alongside them. Two weeks ago, the price of $OM — the native token of MANTRA Chain — suddenly crashed. People were confused and upset. Many thought the MANTRA team might have sold tokens, causing the drop. But according to current statements from the team, that is not what happened. What actually occurred was a liquidation cascade on centralized exchanges. That means some people who had borrowed money to hold $OM were automatically forced to sell when the price dipped — and that selling triggered more selling, like a chain reaction. The end result? A fast and painful crash. Understandably, the community was shaken. In response, MANTRA’s founder JP Mullin has made a public and symbolic commitment: he’s burning all of his 150 million $OM team tokens — permanently removing them from circulation to restore trust. BREAKING DOWN THE SITUATION – COMMUNITY-SOURCED SUMMARY A respected community member, Crypto Fundamentalist, shared a helpful breakdown of the current state of the $OM situation, based on JP’s public updates and community communications. Main takeaways: - No sales by the Mantra team during the price crash. - Evidence of large liquidations on centralized exchanges triggering a cascade. - A token buyback and supply burn program is coming. - JP has committed to burning his own allocation. - A dashboard with live token bucket balances is in the works. - Further transparency reports (including fundraising history) are expected. - Legal investigations are ongoing. - More clarity to come, especially from exchange-side data. 150 MILLION OM BURN – SYMBOLIC AND STRATEGIC JP Mullin has committed to burning his full 150 million OM token allocation. These tokens were originally staked at MANTRA’s mainnet launch in October 2024 to help secure the network. Here’s how it’s going down: - The tokens are currently unstaking - They will be sent to the burn address on April 29, 2025 - This burn will reduce the total supply of OM by 8.24% ON-CHAIN EFFECTS: APR BOOST FOR STAKERS Once the burn is complete: - Total Supply: Decreases from 1.82B → 1.67B OM - Staked Tokens: Decrease from 571.8M → 421.8M OM - Bonded Ratio: Drops from 31.47% → 25.30% - APR Increases: Stakers benefit directly from higher yields This move improves tokenomics while rewarding long-term participants in the ecosystem. TOKEN BUYBACK PROGRAM – STILL TO BE ANNOUNCED MANTRA is also planning an official token buyback and burn program, potentially targeting an additional 150 million OM. This would bring the total burn to 300 million OM, further reducing supply. While details are still in development, this initiative is expected to strengthen OM’s position in the market. WHAT IS MANTRA? MANTRA is a regulatory-compliant, real-world asset (RWA) Layer 1 blockchain. Built for developers, institutions, and the next wave of tokenized finance, MANTRA offers: - RWA tokenization infrastructure - Compliance modules and permissionless access - Interoperability with major blockchains MANTRA holds a VARA license from Dubai to operate as a Virtual Asset Exchange, Broker-Dealer, and Investment Management entity. JP'S OFFICIAL STATEMENT (25th April 2025) “This has been humbling. And heartbreaking. We need to take a moment to regroup and make sound decisions. I promise that our team won't rest until we've made this right.Every day, we continue to investigate what happened and develop plans to prevent it from happening again. Next week at TOKEN2049 in Dubai, I’ll be speaking and releasing concrete next steps for MANTRA — including enhanced governance, transparency reports, and the full execution of my token burn.We’re listening. We’re working around the clock. And we’re not backing down from the responsibility we owe to this community.”— JP Mullin 🫡🕉️ WE BACK MANTRA At BlockHunters, we’ve had the privilege of working closely with - across multiple collaborations and community efforts. Through the ups and downs, one thing has remained clear: MANTRA is building for the long term. Their transparent handling of recent events, commitment to decentralization, and push for token-holder alignment earns our full support. We stand behind MANTRA and their mission to redefine the tokenized asset space. Last year, we had the pleasure of welcoming JP on our podcast — long before this incident — for a deep dive into MANTRA’s vision, regulatory alignment, and the future of tokenized finance. 🫡🕉️

BlockHunters

61,227 次观看 • 1 年前

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

Last night was the biggest disaster in the history of Tesla. Let me walk you through what actually happened on that earnings call, because the headlines are doing you a disservice: Elon Musk got on the call and admitted (his words) that Hardware 3 "simply does not have the capability to achieve unsupervised FSD." He said he wished it were otherwise. He said the memory bandwidth is one-eighth of what Hardware 4 has. And that's the end of the conversation. Approximately 4 million Tesla vehicles on the road right now have Hardware 3. Many of those owners paid $8,000 to $15,000 for Full Self-Driving capability based on Musk's repeated promises (going back to 2016) that the hardware was sufficient for full autonomy. As recently as 2022, Musk was publicly assuring owners that HW3 had the processing power to get it done. BUT IT DIDN'T Those promises are now officially broken. The solution is a "discounted trade-in" toward a new car with Hardware 4. Not a refund or a free upgrade... A discount on buying ANOTHER Tesla. Investor Ross Gerber said it too - all HW3 owners got screwed, and with roughly 285,000 FSD purchasers affected, the potential liability runs into the BILLIONS. But that's not even the worst part. Musk was asked if the current FSD v14.3 was ready for unsupervised deployment. He said yes. Then immediately walked it back and admitted Tesla has "major architectural improvements" in the pipeline that would significantly improve safety. What he really means: the software isn't SAFE ENOUGH to deploy without a human watching. Full unsupervised FSD for consumer cars is pushed to Q4 2026. At the earliest... Maybe. How many times has this deadline been pushed? I've lost count. And trust me, I've seen a lot of broken promises. But this one takes the cake. Now let's talk about the numbers everyone is celebrating: Tesla reported $22.4 billion in revenue and $0.41 in non-GAAP earnings. A "double beat." The stock popped 4% after hours. Victory, right? WRONG Dig into the actual filing: The number one driver of operating income improvement wasn't cost reductions, wasn't volume growth, wasn't FSD revenue. It was - and Tesla listed this FIRST in their own shareholder letter - "one-time benefits related to warranty and tariffs." They released warranty reserves. They booked tariff refund windfalls. They stretched supplier payments by 10 days. They took on billions in new debt. Then they presented everything through non-GAAP metrics that strip out over $1 billion in stock-based compensation. GAAP net income was $477 million on $22.4 billion in revenue. That's a 2.1% net margin. On a $1.4 trillion market cap. Let me put that in perspective: 3.75 billion shares outstanding. Annualize the Q1 GAAP profit and you get roughly $1.9 billion. That's a trailing P/E ratio north of 700. Use the adjusted number - strip out stock comp, which is a REAL cost to shareholders through dilution - and you're still at around 250x earnings. All of this is extremely bad, but I didn't even talk about the CAPEX BOMB yet... 3 months ago, Tesla guided to "over $20 billion" in 2026 capital expenditure. Last night they raised it to over $25 billion. A $5 billion increase in a single quarter. That's 3x their historical annual capex run rate - $8.5 billion in 2025, $11.3 billion in 2024. The CFO confirmed on the call that Tesla expects NEGATIVE free cash flow for the rest of the year. So you have a company generating roughly $6 billion in annual free cash flow on a good year, and they're about to spend $25 billion. The math doesn't work. They will almost certainly need to issue equity. Which means dilution. Which means the $1.9 billion in annual earnings gets spread across even MORE shares. The core auto business is literally deteriorating in real time: Tesla delivered 358,000 vehicles in Q1 (missed estimates again). They produced 408,000. That's 50,000 cars sitting on lots that nobody bought. Inventory days jumped from 10 to 27 in just a few quarters. California (their most important US market) saw registrations crash 24% year over year. Their market share in the state fell from 9.2% to 7.7%. That's on top of a Q1 2025 that was ALREADY weak from Model Y retooling. They're declining off a decline. And here's what really kills the bull case... The entire valuation rests on robotaxis, Optimus robots, and autonomy. So let's put numbers on it: Waymo - the actual leader in autonomous driving with 15 million completed rides in 2025 alone, over 127 million autonomous miles driven, operating commercially across 6 US cities with plans to expand to 20 more - just raised $16 billion at a $126 billion valuation. That's the market's verdict on what the LEADING robotaxi company is worth. $126 billion. And Waymo is YEARS ahead of Tesla in actual deployment. Tesla has 3.75 billion shares outstanding. So even if you assign $126 billion in robotaxi value (giving Tesla full credit for matching Waymo despite being nowhere close) that's $33 a share. Add the auto business at generous auto-industry multiples, maybe $20 a share. Throw in energy storage and services, $10-15. Sum of the parts gets you to roughly $65-70 a share if you're feeling generous. Maybe $50 if you're not. The stock is $387. So what exactly are you paying for? You're paying for a STORY. You're paying for PROMISES that keep getting pushed back, technology that keeps falling short, and a business plan that requires spending $25 billion a year while the core product sells fewer units at declining margins in a market where California sales just fell 24% and the federal EV tax credit is gone. I managed the number one mutual fund in America. I founded two billion-dollar hedge funds. I've been doing this since 1981. And I am telling you: Tesla at $387 is one of the most egregious mispricings I have seen in my entire career. THE CRASH WILL BE EPIC

George Noble

1,225,439 次观看 • 4 个月前

Following our breakdown of Ultra Red, another finish that deserves an engineering deep dive is Pearl White Multi-Coat. While it is one of the most common Tesla colors on the road, the factory science behind its layered construction is exceptionally complex 🔥 🚗 Pearl White served as the primary no-cost paint option across much of Tesla's North American lineup starting in 2019, making it a familiar sight. Tesla later transitioned the included color to Midnight Silver Metallic and eventually Stealth Grey on newer configurations, returning Pearl White to a paid upgrade depending on the specific model and market. 🔬 The fundamental difference between Ultra Red and Pearl White comes down to how each paint stack manipulates light. Ultra Red relies on chromatic absorption, using a translucent red mid-coat to filter light and amplify color saturation. In contrast, Pearl White relies on optical interference, combining a high-opacity foundation with pearlescent effect platelets. 🎨 Known by the factory paint code PPSW, the process begins with an opaque white ground coat applied after the e-coat and primer stages. Like most high-opacity automotive whites, this ground coat likely relies heavily on titanium dioxide pigment, which provides the opacity and uniform hiding required for the effect layer above. ✨ The signature dimension happens in the translucent mid-coat layer. The layer contains pearlescent effect pigments, which in automotive coatings commonly consist of microscopic mica or synthetic platelets coated with metal oxides. When sunlight hits this layer, light reflects and transmits across multiple interfaces within the coated platelets. These light waves interfere with one another, creating a dynamic shimmer and soft color shift across the body contours. ☀️ This optical interference explains why Pearl White can look noticeably different depending on the ambient lighting. In diffuse overcast conditions, directional sparkle is subdued and the solid white ground coat dominates the appearance. Under direct sunlight, the microscopic platelets catch the light, creating a warm, multi-dimensional iridescence that contours around every curve. 🧩 That sensitive flake behavior also explains the occasional factory color mismatch seen between plastic bumpers and adjacent metal quarter panels. Bumpers are often painted separately using plastic-specific coating processes and lower curing temperatures, sometimes with flexibility additives. Differences in substrate behavior, evaporation rate, application method, curing conditions, and part geometry can cause the pearl particles to orient differently. Curved plastic and metal surfaces also reflect light at different angles, making even a small color variation more visible at the mating seam. 🛠️ Much like Ultra Red, this multi-stage system makes repainting a damaged panel notoriously demanding for collision centers. While an Ultra Red painter is managing color darkness and saturation, a Pearl White technician is managing mid-coat film thickness, coverage, particle orientation, and spray technique. 💸 The translucent mid-coat is the most sensitive variable in the paint booth. Applying too light a coat leaves the repair looking flat and chalky, while additional film build can alter the brightness, hue, and pearl effect enough to make the repaired area visibly different. 🏎️ To prevent mismatched panels, painters typically spray a let-down panel or a series of spray-out cards to determine the best-matching mid-coat pass count required for the finish. Technicians may also need to blend the base and mid-coat into adjacent undamaged panels to ensure a seamless visual transition before applying clearcoat edge-to-edge across each affected panel. 💰 Both Ultra Red and Pearl White show how Tesla uses multi-coat engineering to elevate automotive colors. Whether selectively filtering light through high-chroma translucent pigments or relying on microscopic pearl interference platelets, achieving that factory depth requires serious precision on the assembly line and in the paint booth.

Following our breakdown of Ultra Red, another finish that deserves an engineering deep dive is Pearl White Multi-Coat. While it is one of the most common Tesla colors on the road, the factory science behind its layered construction is exceptionally complex 🔥 🚗 Pearl White served as the primary no-cost paint option across much of Tesla's North American lineup starting in 2019, making it a familiar sight. Tesla later transitioned the included color to Midnight Silver Metallic and eventually Stealth Grey on newer configurations, returning Pearl White to a paid upgrade depending on the specific model and market. 🔬 The fundamental difference between Ultra Red and Pearl White comes down to how each paint stack manipulates light. Ultra Red relies on chromatic absorption, using a translucent red mid-coat to filter light and amplify color saturation. In contrast, Pearl White relies on optical interference, combining a high-opacity foundation with pearlescent effect platelets. 🎨 Known by the factory paint code PPSW, the process begins with an opaque white ground coat applied after the e-coat and primer stages. Like most high-opacity automotive whites, this ground coat likely relies heavily on titanium dioxide pigment, which provides the opacity and uniform hiding required for the effect layer above. ✨ The signature dimension happens in the translucent mid-coat layer. The layer contains pearlescent effect pigments, which in automotive coatings commonly consist of microscopic mica or synthetic platelets coated with metal oxides. When sunlight hits this layer, light reflects and transmits across multiple interfaces within the coated platelets. These light waves interfere with one another, creating a dynamic shimmer and soft color shift across the body contours. ☀️ This optical interference explains why Pearl White can look noticeably different depending on the ambient lighting. In diffuse overcast conditions, directional sparkle is subdued and the solid white ground coat dominates the appearance. Under direct sunlight, the microscopic platelets catch the light, creating a warm, multi-dimensional iridescence that contours around every curve. 🧩 That sensitive flake behavior also explains the occasional factory color mismatch seen between plastic bumpers and adjacent metal quarter panels. Bumpers are often painted separately using plastic-specific coating processes and lower curing temperatures, sometimes with flexibility additives. Differences in substrate behavior, evaporation rate, application method, curing conditions, and part geometry can cause the pearl particles to orient differently. Curved plastic and metal surfaces also reflect light at different angles, making even a small color variation more visible at the mating seam. 🛠️ Much like Ultra Red, this multi-stage system makes repainting a damaged panel notoriously demanding for collision centers. While an Ultra Red painter is managing color darkness and saturation, a Pearl White technician is managing mid-coat film thickness, coverage, particle orientation, and spray technique. 💸 The translucent mid-coat is the most sensitive variable in the paint booth. Applying too light a coat leaves the repair looking flat and chalky, while additional film build can alter the brightness, hue, and pearl effect enough to make the repaired area visibly different. 🏎️ To prevent mismatched panels, painters typically spray a let-down panel or a series of spray-out cards to determine the best-matching mid-coat pass count required for the finish. Technicians may also need to blend the base and mid-coat into adjacent undamaged panels to ensure a seamless visual transition before applying clearcoat edge-to-edge across each affected panel. 💰 Both Ultra Red and Pearl White show how Tesla uses multi-coat engineering to elevate automotive colors. Whether selectively filtering light through high-chroma translucent pigments or relying on microscopic pearl interference platelets, achieving that factory depth requires serious precision on the assembly line and in the paint booth.

Ming

35,590 次观看 • 1 天前

I am SAANYA High Priestess Bruja | Reiki Grand Master | 8-Clair Specialist in Energetic Surgery & Ancestral Excision I am not here to tell your future. I am here to excise the ancestral rot, sever the karmic loops, and dissolve the soul-level blockages keeping you from living it. Operating with fully active 8-Clair Mastery as a trained shaman, Reiki Grand Master, and bruja, I act as private counsel, stepping directly into the abysses others fear to tread to facilitate high-frequency transitions. My work is not vague, cookie-cutter, or designed to comfort your ego. I hold an unfiltered, grounded crucible for genuine, structural transformation by speaking directly with your Higher Self. I don't play with the light; I master the shadow. I do not sell quick fixes or foster codependency. My goal is to help you trust your own medicine so deeply that you become entirely unshakeable. If you are looking for generic answers or a spiritual bypass, you are in the wrong place. I help you dismantle systemic blockages, reclaim your personal sovereignty, and actively engineer your reality via Karmic Extractions, Ancestral Clearing, and Soul-Level De-fragmentation. Basic astrology and tarot are maps. Energy Surgery is the intervention. ⚡ ENTER THE TEMPLE The scope of our 1:1 private work spans across heavy energetic architecture: • Premium Energy Reading & Karma Diagnosis: Pinpoint the exact origin of current life crossroads. • Karmic Cord Surgery & Shadow Retrieval: Safely dissecting attachments from past baggage and bloodline stagnation. • Advanced Energetic Liberation: Deep-soul extraction, aura tear repair, and financial path unblocking. • Occult Candle Magick & Uncrossing: Aggressive hex removal, ancestral burn work, and pristine space cleansing. • Elite Signature Offerings: Full Energetic Detoxification and Transpersonal Soul Star Activations. One-of-a-kind work for one-of-a-kind destinies. 🛑 INBOX PROTOCOLS & SACRED BOUNDARIES Please be deeply respectful of my time, energy, and space. Do not spam my inbox with random messages, personal requests, or unprompted personal data. - The Danger of Oversharing: Sending raw, unsolicited logs of your personal trauma into an open inbox creates a severe energy leak for you, while acting as a total boundary violation and spiritual bypass toward me. - The Reality: It is mathematically and energetically impossible for me to personally answer every single message. - The Karmic Law: While I share an immense library of deep, free educational information on this page, constantly expecting freebies and personal diagnoses is unacceptable. It creates an immediate karmic and energy imbalance that halts your own evolution. If you have questions, compensate the energy correctly by booking a dedicated container. A Final Reminder: I take my work very seriously. I am not your regular tarot reader, astrologer or healer. I do not operate on the surface of your life. My work targets the absolute root of your struggles, and my job is to equip you to uproot those problems entirely; clearing out your karmic debt and ancestral rut for good. Come prepared to meet that level of intensity. ⏳ SESSION CONFIGURATIONS & DELIVERY All energy reading sessions are an advanced, synergistic mix of Tarot, Astrology, Numerology, Runes, Ayurveda, and my fully active 8 Clairs. ~ 30-Minute Reading: Tailored to get all your immediate, burning questions answered cleanly. ~ 45-Minute/1-Hour/90-Minute Master Sessions: Comprehensive containers divided into two explicit blocks. Part One: A heavy, unprompted deep dive into all core areas of your life (Education/Career, Finances, Relationships, Personal Well-being, Health, Healing, Spirituality ). It is exceptionally detailed and packed with practical remedies for daily friction. Part Two: We address any remaining questions if they haven't already been naturally cleared by Part One. (Note: The 1-Hour and 90-Minute tiers include a full, structural Chakra Cleanse). 📞 Logistics: All private live sessions are conducted exclusively via WhatsApp Audio or Video calls. All technical, astrology-related charts and planetary questions are handled entirely via Email. 🕊️ MY MISSION FOR THIS PUBLIC SPACE I understand that private, individual sessions for heavy energetic architecture and shadow integration are an elite investment and may not be accessible or aligned for everyone right now. Because I believe life-altering guidance should never be entirely out of reach, I dedicate this open page to sharing completely free, long-form insights. Here, you will always find a supportive, grounded mix of modern psychology, traditional Jyotish (Astrology), shadow integration work, practical energetic protection tips, and regular collective energy readings to help you navigate current cosmic shifts. Every long-form post is shared with the genuine hope that it acts as a gentle anchor, offering clarity and validation for whatever chapter of the journey you are currently walking. You do not have to navigate the darkness alone, and I am deeply honored to support your daily evolution in whatever small way I can. 🖤 HOW TO INITIALIZE PRIVATE ENGAGEMENTS 1. Watch the Shadow Priestess Premium Menu video attached below to find the exact frequency you require. Trust your gut and choose the exact service that is actively calling out to you. 2. Official Instagram Page 👉🏽 (Check Client Testimonials Insta Story) 3. Vetting & Referral Intake: DM to submit an inquiry. Serious requests only. State how you found me/who referred you/your current alignment, your exact required service, or request a raw Energy/Karma Diagnosis to evaluate your entry point. My Crystal Store: The loop ends here. Your expansion begins now. ✨

I am SAANYA High Priestess Bruja | Reiki Grand Master | 8-Clair Specialist in Energetic Surgery & Ancestral Excision I am not here to tell your future. I am here to excise the ancestral rot, sever the karmic loops, and dissolve the soul-level blockages keeping you from living it. Operating with fully active 8-Clair Mastery as a trained shaman, Reiki Grand Master, and bruja, I act as private counsel, stepping directly into the abysses others fear to tread to facilitate high-frequency transitions. My work is not vague, cookie-cutter, or designed to comfort your ego. I hold an unfiltered, grounded crucible for genuine, structural transformation by speaking directly with your Higher Self. I don't play with the light; I master the shadow. I do not sell quick fixes or foster codependency. My goal is to help you trust your own medicine so deeply that you become entirely unshakeable. If you are looking for generic answers or a spiritual bypass, you are in the wrong place. I help you dismantle systemic blockages, reclaim your personal sovereignty, and actively engineer your reality via Karmic Extractions, Ancestral Clearing, and Soul-Level De-fragmentation. Basic astrology and tarot are maps. Energy Surgery is the intervention. ⚡ ENTER THE TEMPLE The scope of our 1:1 private work spans across heavy energetic architecture: • Premium Energy Reading & Karma Diagnosis: Pinpoint the exact origin of current life crossroads. • Karmic Cord Surgery & Shadow Retrieval: Safely dissecting attachments from past baggage and bloodline stagnation. • Advanced Energetic Liberation: Deep-soul extraction, aura tear repair, and financial path unblocking. • Occult Candle Magick & Uncrossing: Aggressive hex removal, ancestral burn work, and pristine space cleansing. • Elite Signature Offerings: Full Energetic Detoxification and Transpersonal Soul Star Activations. One-of-a-kind work for one-of-a-kind destinies. 🛑 INBOX PROTOCOLS & SACRED BOUNDARIES Please be deeply respectful of my time, energy, and space. Do not spam my inbox with random messages, personal requests, or unprompted personal data. - The Danger of Oversharing: Sending raw, unsolicited logs of your personal trauma into an open inbox creates a severe energy leak for you, while acting as a total boundary violation and spiritual bypass toward me. - The Reality: It is mathematically and energetically impossible for me to personally answer every single message. - The Karmic Law: While I share an immense library of deep, free educational information on this page, constantly expecting freebies and personal diagnoses is unacceptable. It creates an immediate karmic and energy imbalance that halts your own evolution. If you have questions, compensate the energy correctly by booking a dedicated container. A Final Reminder: I take my work very seriously. I am not your regular tarot reader, astrologer or healer. I do not operate on the surface of your life. My work targets the absolute root of your struggles, and my job is to equip you to uproot those problems entirely; clearing out your karmic debt and ancestral rut for good. Come prepared to meet that level of intensity. ⏳ SESSION CONFIGURATIONS & DELIVERY All energy reading sessions are an advanced, synergistic mix of Tarot, Astrology, Numerology, Runes, Ayurveda, and my fully active 8 Clairs. ~ 30-Minute Reading: Tailored to get all your immediate, burning questions answered cleanly. ~ 45-Minute/1-Hour/90-Minute Master Sessions: Comprehensive containers divided into two explicit blocks. Part One: A heavy, unprompted deep dive into all core areas of your life (Education/Career, Finances, Relationships, Personal Well-being, Health, Healing, Spirituality ). It is exceptionally detailed and packed with practical remedies for daily friction. Part Two: We address any remaining questions if they haven't already been naturally cleared by Part One. (Note: The 1-Hour and 90-Minute tiers include a full, structural Chakra Cleanse). 📞 Logistics: All private live sessions are conducted exclusively via WhatsApp Audio or Video calls. All technical, astrology-related charts and planetary questions are handled entirely via Email. 🕊️ MY MISSION FOR THIS PUBLIC SPACE I understand that private, individual sessions for heavy energetic architecture and shadow integration are an elite investment and may not be accessible or aligned for everyone right now. Because I believe life-altering guidance should never be entirely out of reach, I dedicate this open page to sharing completely free, long-form insights. Here, you will always find a supportive, grounded mix of modern psychology, traditional Jyotish (Astrology), shadow integration work, practical energetic protection tips, and regular collective energy readings to help you navigate current cosmic shifts. Every long-form post is shared with the genuine hope that it acts as a gentle anchor, offering clarity and validation for whatever chapter of the journey you are currently walking. You do not have to navigate the darkness alone, and I am deeply honored to support your daily evolution in whatever small way I can. 🖤 HOW TO INITIALIZE PRIVATE ENGAGEMENTS 1. Watch the Shadow Priestess Premium Menu video attached below to find the exact frequency you require. Trust your gut and choose the exact service that is actively calling out to you. 2. Official Instagram Page 👉🏽 (Check Client Testimonials Insta Story) 3. Vetting & Referral Intake: DM to submit an inquiry. Serious requests only. State how you found me/who referred you/your current alignment, your exact required service, or request a raw Energy/Karma Diagnosis to evaluate your entry point. My Crystal Store: The loop ends here. Your expansion begins now. ✨

🔱 YogMaya: Energy Surgeon 🔱

10,940 次观看 • 1 个月前

BEARISH ON OPENAI The investment case for OpenAI has never been more precarious than it is right now in late 2025. What was once a company that seemed destined to dominate the artificial intelligence revolution has revealed itself to be a structurally disadvantaged challenger fighting a defensive war on multiple fronts. The company anticipates burning through roughly $9 billion this year on $13 billion in sales, a cash burn rate of approximately 70% of revenue. This is not the profile of a company poised to capture monopolistic profits from a transformative technology; it is the profile of a utility company spending astronomical sums to deliver a commodity product that competitors are increasingly giving away for free. The financial trajectory only becomes more alarming when examined over a longer time horizon. The documents show OpenAI projects that by 2028, its operating losses will balloon to roughly three-quarters of that year’s revenue, driven primarily by ballooning spending on computing costs. The company has painted a rosy picture of eventual profitability by 2029 or 2030, but this projection requires believing that OpenAI can grow revenue from roughly $13 billion today to $125 billion or more while simultaneously maintaining pricing power in a market where every major technology company and numerous startups are racing to commoditize the very product OpenAI sells. The cash burn is expected to reach $115 billion cumulatively through 2029, according to The Information. These numbers represent a staggering bet that requires near-perfect execution across multiple dimensions over half a decade. The most damning evidence against OpenAI’s long-term viability is the evaporation of its technological moat. In 2023, GPT-4 felt like genuine magic, a capability that no other company could replicate. Today, that lead has effectively vanished. The sudden availability of frontier-level open-source models is expected to dramatically accelerate AI development globally, potentially reshaping entire industries and altering the balance of power in the tech world. Meta’s Llama series, Mistral’s increasingly capable models, and even Chinese competitors like DeepSeek have demonstrated that the core technology powering ChatGPT is replicable and, in many cases, distributable for free. When your product becomes commoditized, the economics become brutal, and OpenAI finds itself in the position of trying to sell bottled water in a world where tap water has become indistinguishable in quality. The competitive pressure from open-source alternatives is compounding rapidly. The open source movement in AI has grown exponentially over the past few years. Instead of relying solely on expensive, closed models from major tech companies, developers and researchers worldwide can now access, modify, and improve upon state-of-the-art LLMs. This democratization is existential for OpenAI’s business model. Enterprises that once paid premium prices for API access now have the option to run comparable models on their own infrastructure at a fraction of the cost, with the added benefits of data privacy and customization. The value proposition that justified OpenAI’s premium pricing has eroded faster than anyone anticipated, and there is no indication that this trend will reverse. Perhaps nothing illustrates OpenAI’s structural weakness more clearly than the behavior of its most important partner. Microsoft is dancing to its own tune in the artificial intelligence revolution, and Wall Street cannot stop watching. Despite pouring approximately $13 billion into OpenAI over several years, DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria estimates that just 17 percent of Microsoft’s total Azure revenue comes from artificial intelligence workloads. More critically, only 6 percent of that total ties directly to reselling OpenAI’s models, while approximately 75 percent is generated from Azure AI. Microsoft is building its own models, hedging with Anthropic, and quietly reducing its dependency on the very company it funded. When your largest investor is simultaneously your biggest competitor and is actively developing alternatives to your core product, the strategic implications are dire. Leaders at Microsoft believe Anthropic’s latest models — Claude Sonnet 4, specifically — perform better than OpenAI’s in certain functions, like creating aesthetically pleasing PowerPoint presentations. This is not a minor technical preference; it represents a fundamental shift in how Microsoft views its partnership with OpenAI. Microsoft is dramatically escalating its AI independence strategy. At an internal town hall Thursday, Microsoft AI chief Mustafa Suleyman revealed the company is making “significant investments” in compute capacity to build frontier models that can compete directly with OpenAI, Google, and Meta. The company that was supposed to be OpenAI’s path to distribution and scale is instead preparing for a future where OpenAI is just one vendor among many, if not an outright competitor. The leadership exodus at OpenAI over the past year has been nothing short of catastrophic. In September 2024, Murati announced that she was stepping down as CTO. This move came amid a wider executive exodus as OpenAI chief research officer Bob McGrew and a vice president of research, Barret Zoph, also announced their departures soon after. Mira Murati was not a minor figure; she was instrumental in the development of ChatGPT, Dall-E, and Sora. Her departure, along with co-founder Ilya Sutskever, safety leader Jan Leike, and co-founder John Schulman who joined rival Anthropic, has left CEO Sam Altman without much of the leadership team that helped him build OpenAI into an AI juggernaut. Hannah Wong, the executive who steered OpenAI through its most chaotic period, has announced she’s leaving the company just this month, continuing the pattern of senior departures that suggests something fundamentally broken in the organization’s culture or direction. The distribution problem facing OpenAI may be its most insurmountable challenge. Apple and Google control the smartphones that billions of people use every day. Microsoft controls the productivity software that enterprises depend upon. OpenAI, by contrast, must convince users to deliberately open a separate application and type their queries into a text box. In a world of agentic AI where assistants need access to your email, calendar, and files to be useful, an AI embedded directly into your operating system has an overwhelming structural advantage over a standalone chatbot. OpenAI is trying to be a consumer product company without owning any of the surfaces where consumers actually spend their time, competing against incumbents who can simply bundle AI capabilities directly into products that already have hundreds of millions of daily active users. The nuclear-to-solar analogy captures the fundamental economic transformation that is devastating OpenAI’s business model. Just as nuclear power required enormous upfront capital expenditure for centralized power plants, AI in its current form requires massive data center investments to train and serve models. But the direction of travel is unmistakably toward distributed intelligence that runs locally on devices. A major part of the pitch is practicality. Lample emphasizes that Ministral 3 can run on a single GPU, making it deployable on affordable hardware — from on-premise servers to laptops, robots, and other edge devices that may have limited connectivity. When powerful AI models can run on a smartphone or a laptop without any cloud connection, the entire economic rationale for paying premium prices to access centralized AI infrastructure disappears. OpenAI is building nuclear reactors in a world that is rapidly installing solar panels on every rooftop. The proposed $1 trillion IPO valuation is perhaps the clearest signal that something is deeply wrong with the OpenAI story. In the first half of the year, OpenAI lost $13.5 billion, on revenue of $4.3 billion. It is on track to lose $27 billion for the year. One estimate shows OpenAI will burn $115 billion by 2029. Asking public market investors to pay $1 trillion for a company that loses more than twice as much as it earns is not a growth story; it is an exit strategy. The sophisticated investors who funded OpenAI’s private rounds are looking for a way to transfer their risk to retail investors and pension funds who may not fully understand the unit economics of the business. A recent report by HSBC estimated that the company will remain in the unprofitable category until 2029 and that the company will need an additional $207 billion to fund its ambitions. Sam Altman’s leadership represents another structural liability for the company. His background is as a startup investor and evangelist, not as an operational executive who has scaled a capital-intensive industrial operation. The pivot from nonprofit research lab to for-profit corporation to public benefit corporation to anticipated public company has been accompanied by legal and governance structures designed primarily to protect Altman’s control rather than to create shareholder value. Going public means answering a lot more of those kinds of questions, every single quarter, forever. When asked about financial concerns in a friendly podcast interview, Altman’s dismissive response revealed a leader uncomfortable with the scrutiny that public markets will inevitably bring. The adults in the room have largely departed, leaving a company that desperately needs disciplined execution led by someone whose strengths lie elsewhere. The comparison to Netscape is instructive. Netscape proved that the internet was real and created genuine value, but it had no sustainable moat against an incumbent who could bundle the browser directly into the operating system. OpenAI has proven that large language models are real and valuable, but it faces the same structural disadvantage against incumbents who can bundle AI directly into operating systems, productivity suites, and cloud platforms. The value will accrue to the companies that own the distribution channels and the hardware, not to the company that demonstrated the technology was possible. OpenAI is destined to become a historical footnote, remembered as the company that ignited the AI revolution but failed to capture the economic value it created. The only bull case for OpenAI is the AGI lottery ticket: the possibility that the company achieves artificial general intelligence before anyone else and thereby transcends all normal economic analysis. But there is no evidence that OpenAI is any closer to AGI than Google, Anthropic, or DeepMind. The company’s advantage was never secret research breakthroughs; it was first-mover advantage in commercialization. That advantage has now been erased by competitors who can match or exceed OpenAI’s capabilities while benefiting from existing ecosystems, distribution channels, and the willingness to operate AI as a loss leader to drive engagement with more profitable products. The secret sauce was never secret, and there was never any sauce. The endgame for OpenAI is unlikely to be the triumphant dominance that early investors imagined. The most probable outcomes range from gradual irrelevance as a backend provider, to financial restructuring under pressure from creditors, to absorption by Microsoft or another well-capitalized technology company looking to acquire the remaining talent and intellectual property at a discount. Despite its current losses, OpenAI’s long-term prospects are bolstered by the explosive growth of the AI market. But growth in the overall AI market does not guarantee success for any individual company, particularly one with no moat, no ecosystem, and a cost structure that requires selling a commodity at premium prices. The AI revolution is real, but OpenAI’s role in capturing its economic value is far from assured. For anyone considering an investment in OpenAI at anything close to current valuations, the prudent course is to stay far away and watch from the sidelines as economic reality catches up with hype.

David Shapiro (L/0)

69,180 次观看 • 8 个月前

🚨69 𝕏 MINUTES w/ TRUMP FAMILY, RAND PAUL & SEC HEGSETH: SHAKING UP THE SWAMP | EP. 12 Eric Trump and Don Jr join us to unveil Trump’s next venture, aiming to break Big Tech’s grip and bring liberty back to your pocket. Senator Rand Paul rips Washington’s “fiscally reckless” spending deal, while Sec. Pete Hegseth warns Chinese land grabs near U.S. bases aren’t random. Ex-General Robert Spalding takes us inside Trump’s Iran strike, PM Tony Abbott slams multicultural failures, and Pete Evans returns unfiltered to expose COVID lies. ICE’s new “Alligator Alcatraz,” Javier Milei’s bold Israel stance, and the billion-dollar blob funding regime change all get exposed. No spin. No filters. Just the headlines they want buried. Hosted by Erin Molan. Powered by the people. Watch it only on 𝕏. Watch. Share. Decide for yourself. 01:36 - 🇺🇸 LAND WARS: Farmland, Food & National Security Pete Hegseth tells 🇺🇸 ERIC BOLLING 🇺🇸 why Chinese land grabs near US bases aren’t a coincidence and how food security became a defense priority. 08:02 - 🇮🇷 THE IRAN STRIKE: Inside Trump’s Shadow War Ex-B-2 pilot General General Spalding tells Erin Molan how stealth tech, precision planning, and nerves of steel took out Tehran’s threat and why the real battle may just be beginning. 14:53 - 🇺🇸 69 SECONDS: ES Gold Turns Trash Into Treasure ESGold Corp. explains how they’re cleaning up toxic mining waste and turning it into sustainable profits – a model rewriting the future of gold. 16:11 - 🇺🇸 THE TRUMP PHONE: Liberty in Your Pocket Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump reveal Trump Mobile – a secure American-made phone designed to cut out Big Tech and take back your data. Telehealth, crypto, and American jobs? All baked in. 22:54 - DEEP DIVE: THE BLOB EXPOSED – Media, Money & Manipulation We uncover the billion-dollar ecosystem funding regime change and censorship worldwide. From USAID to Soros, the machine isn’t about democracy…it’s about control. 29:21 – 69 SECONDS: Liza Lockwood Debunks Plastic Panic Dr. Liza Lockwood exposes the flawed science behind the headlines, why parts per trillion aren’t a health risk, and how a journal was delisted over the scandal. 30:33 - 🇦🇺 TONY ABBOTT: Immigration, Borders & Beijing Former Aussie PM Tony Abbott tells Mario Nawfal why multiculturalism failed, how Australia stopped the boats, and what the West must learn fast about China. 36:54 - 🇦🇺 CENSORED NO MORE: Pete Evans Unfiltered chef pete evans went from TV star to outcast. Now he’s back, talking COVID lies, Bitcoin, and why trusting yourself is the ultimate rebellion. 43:42 - 🇦🇷 69 SECONDS: President Milei Breaks Silence on Israel Argentina's Milei News 🇦🇷🤝🌎 shows how Argentina’s president Javier Milei faces tough questions on the Middle East. His answer leaves no room for doubt. Bold alliances. Clear lines. A foreign policy shift that’s rattling old power brokers. 44:54 - 🇺🇸 ON THE GROUND: ALLIGATOR ALCATRAZ 🇺🇸 ERIC BOLLING 🇺🇸 tours Florida’s new detention center deep in the Everglades. Guard towers, swamps, and 3,000 beds ready for rapid deportations. ICE calls it a game changer. Critics call it a powder keg. 51:32 - 🇺🇸 HEIRS OF THE REVOLUTION: Trent Staggs on Trump 2025 David Pollack sits down with Trent Staggs to talk tariffs, family, and why Trump’s return may be the last shot at restoring constitutional America. 58:15 - 🇺🇸 69 SECONDS: Mining’s Dirty Past Meets a Clean Future Toxic tailings. Abandoned sites. ESGold Corp. is flipping the script – extracting gold from waste while restoring land and cutting costs. 59:33 - 🇺🇸 THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: Rand Paul vs. Washington’s Spending Spree Mario Nawfal talks debt, defense, and hard truths with Rand Paul as he calls Congress’ latest deal “fiscally reckless” and “anemic.” 01:06:34 - 🇮🇷 ERIN’S TAKE: Trump’s Iran Strike Was the Right Call Erin says critics crying “World War III” missed the point. “Strength prevents war. Weakness invites it. Trump acted and now the world is quieter for it.” No corporate filters. No political spin. No sacred cows. Just the stories they want buried. Special thanks to the fearless journalists on 𝕏 pulling back the curtain and to Elon Musk for keeping the lights on for free speech. This episode is sponsored by TMI Digital on behalf of ESGold. ESGold is dedicated to cleaning up the environment and rewarding shareholders with near-term gold production. Disclaimer: The ESGold segment was produced in collaboration with the client and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.

🚨69 𝕏 MINUTES w/ TRUMP FAMILY, RAND PAUL & SEC HEGSETH: SHAKING UP THE SWAMP | EP. 12 Eric Trump and Don Jr join us to unveil Trump’s next venture, aiming to break Big Tech’s grip and bring liberty back to your pocket. Senator Rand Paul rips Washington’s “fiscally reckless” spending deal, while Sec. Pete Hegseth warns Chinese land grabs near U.S. bases aren’t random. Ex-General Robert Spalding takes us inside Trump’s Iran strike, PM Tony Abbott slams multicultural failures, and Pete Evans returns unfiltered to expose COVID lies. ICE’s new “Alligator Alcatraz,” Javier Milei’s bold Israel stance, and the billion-dollar blob funding regime change all get exposed. No spin. No filters. Just the headlines they want buried. Hosted by Erin Molan. Powered by the people. Watch it only on 𝕏. Watch. Share. Decide for yourself. 01:36 - 🇺🇸 LAND WARS: Farmland, Food & National Security Pete Hegseth tells 🇺🇸 ERIC BOLLING 🇺🇸 why Chinese land grabs near US bases aren’t a coincidence and how food security became a defense priority. 08:02 - 🇮🇷 THE IRAN STRIKE: Inside Trump’s Shadow War Ex-B-2 pilot General General Spalding tells Erin Molan how stealth tech, precision planning, and nerves of steel took out Tehran’s threat and why the real battle may just be beginning. 14:53 - 🇺🇸 69 SECONDS: ES Gold Turns Trash Into Treasure ESGold Corp. explains how they’re cleaning up toxic mining waste and turning it into sustainable profits – a model rewriting the future of gold. 16:11 - 🇺🇸 THE TRUMP PHONE: Liberty in Your Pocket Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump reveal Trump Mobile – a secure American-made phone designed to cut out Big Tech and take back your data. Telehealth, crypto, and American jobs? All baked in. 22:54 - DEEP DIVE: THE BLOB EXPOSED – Media, Money & Manipulation We uncover the billion-dollar ecosystem funding regime change and censorship worldwide. From USAID to Soros, the machine isn’t about democracy…it’s about control. 29:21 – 69 SECONDS: Liza Lockwood Debunks Plastic Panic Dr. Liza Lockwood exposes the flawed science behind the headlines, why parts per trillion aren’t a health risk, and how a journal was delisted over the scandal. 30:33 - 🇦🇺 TONY ABBOTT: Immigration, Borders & Beijing Former Aussie PM Tony Abbott tells Mario Nawfal why multiculturalism failed, how Australia stopped the boats, and what the West must learn fast about China. 36:54 - 🇦🇺 CENSORED NO MORE: Pete Evans Unfiltered chef pete evans went from TV star to outcast. Now he’s back, talking COVID lies, Bitcoin, and why trusting yourself is the ultimate rebellion. 43:42 - 🇦🇷 69 SECONDS: President Milei Breaks Silence on Israel Argentina's Milei News 🇦🇷🤝🌎 shows how Argentina’s president Javier Milei faces tough questions on the Middle East. His answer leaves no room for doubt. Bold alliances. Clear lines. A foreign policy shift that’s rattling old power brokers. 44:54 - 🇺🇸 ON THE GROUND: ALLIGATOR ALCATRAZ 🇺🇸 ERIC BOLLING 🇺🇸 tours Florida’s new detention center deep in the Everglades. Guard towers, swamps, and 3,000 beds ready for rapid deportations. ICE calls it a game changer. Critics call it a powder keg. 51:32 - 🇺🇸 HEIRS OF THE REVOLUTION: Trent Staggs on Trump 2025 David Pollack sits down with Trent Staggs to talk tariffs, family, and why Trump’s return may be the last shot at restoring constitutional America. 58:15 - 🇺🇸 69 SECONDS: Mining’s Dirty Past Meets a Clean Future Toxic tailings. Abandoned sites. ESGold Corp. is flipping the script – extracting gold from waste while restoring land and cutting costs. 59:33 - 🇺🇸 THE BIG BEAUTIFUL BILL: Rand Paul vs. Washington’s Spending Spree Mario Nawfal talks debt, defense, and hard truths with Rand Paul as he calls Congress’ latest deal “fiscally reckless” and “anemic.” 01:06:34 - 🇮🇷 ERIN’S TAKE: Trump’s Iran Strike Was the Right Call Erin says critics crying “World War III” missed the point. “Strength prevents war. Weakness invites it. Trump acted and now the world is quieter for it.” No corporate filters. No political spin. No sacred cows. Just the stories they want buried. Special thanks to the fearless journalists on 𝕏 pulling back the curtain and to Elon Musk for keeping the lights on for free speech. This episode is sponsored by TMI Digital on behalf of ESGold. ESGold is dedicated to cleaning up the environment and rewarding shareholders with near-term gold production. Disclaimer: The ESGold segment was produced in collaboration with the client and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making any financial decisions.

Mario Nawfal

3,057,413 次观看 • 1 年前

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

YeahDave

208,349 次观看 • 8 个月前

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

107,583 次观看 • 2 年前

The Daily Mail’s Royal Vendetta: A Month of Smears on William and Catherine, Followed by Crocodile Tears In the sweltering heat of August and September 2025, the Daily Mail unleashed a torrent of vitriol against Prince William, Catherine, the Princess of Wales, and even King Charles III. What began as whispers about a family home move quickly snowballed into a full-scale assault: accusations of “control freak” tendencies, “underwhelming” duties, a “dark past” tied to slavery, and hints of irreparable rifts. Collages of headlines tell the story — dozens of pieces from the Mail’s royal “hit squad,” peddling speculation as fact, while royal watchers cried “propaganda!” after every drop. This wasn’t journalism. It was SEO warfare dressed up as reporting, cynically timed to ride search trends like “William lazy,” “Kate health,” and “Charles succession,” while dangling glowing comparisons to bait Sussex fans. The Mail’s royal desk has turned itself into a digital sweatshop where outrage is the currency. Every article is deliberately contradictory — William is “too private” one day, “too performative” the next; Catherine is “influential but holding him back”; Charles is “weak but meddling.” Why? Because conflict sells. Rage-clicks fill MailOnline’s coffers. It’s the business model of chaos — and chaos is the coin of their grubby little realm. Now, in a twist worthy of their own soap-opera scripts, two of the Mail’s most prolific royal scribblers— Rebecca English and Richard Eden —have pivoted to pearl-clutching exposés about a “sinister plot” and “calculated wedge” undermining William and Catherine. It’s laughable. These aren’t brave whistleblowers; they’re architects of the very narrative they’re now decrying. The Daily Mail didn’t just report the hate—they manufactured it, weaponised it, monetised it, and now want to wash their hands as if they were bystanders. It’s the Fleet Street equivalent of throwing petrol on a bonfire, then sobbing that one’s eyebrows got singed. The Mail’s hypocrisy is breathtaking. For weeks, they ran columns dripping with Sussex apologia — Griffiths acting as Harry’s stenographer and Platell recycling Meghan’s grievances as “concerns,” and A.N. Wilson psychoanalysing William from his study like some amateur Freud-for-hire. All this while YouTube commenters and even their own readers blasted their Royals channel as “toxic propaganda.” But rather than adjust course, they doubled down — until subscribers fled and advertisers grew squeamish. Only then did the pivot to victimhood begin. One could almost hear the gnashing of teeth in Kensington High Street. Let’s expose the rot at the heart of this tabloid machine — how they orchestrated the smears, gamed the algorithms, amplified Sussex narratives, twisted facts into weapons, and how their financial decline drives the cruelty. The curtain must be pulled back, and the stagehands caught red-handed, script in one hand, calculator in the other. The Hit Parade: A Catalogue of Calculated Cruelty From 1 August to 27 September 2025, the Daily Mail’s royal desk became a factory for anti-Wales ammunition, deploying a multi-pronged strategy: recycle old grudges into fresh headlines, cherry-pick data to misrepresent workloads, sensationalise historical trivia, and frame every decision as evidence of impending royal collapse. The trigger? William and Catherine’s pragmatic decision to relocate from Adelaide Cottage to Forest Lodge on the Sandringham estate — a “forever home” for family stability amid Catherine’s cancer recovery and global threats. What should have been a non-story morphed into “proof” of William’s fatal flaws: too private, too lazy, too “woke,” too everything. In short, too damned convenient for the Mail’s search engine tinkering. This was not random. The Mail runs on click-chains: one “exclusive” generates spinoffs, which are then linked in sidebars, ensuring readers never escape the outrage cycle. Eviction headlines lead into slavery history “revelations,” which link to workload hit pieces, which in turn promote YouTube debate clips. It is algorithmic entrapment sold as news — a kind of journalistic mousetrap baited with bile. Here’s the rogue’s gallery of the worst offenders, their pieces dripping with pro-Sussex favoritism and wild conjecture, broken down by tactic: • Amanda Platell (Columnist): On 20 August, Platell sneered at William’s “puny” 71 engagements, cherry-picking incomplete 2024 figures and ignoring health crises in the family. She compared him unfavourably to Princess Anne and accused him of making the Firm “pure vanilla.” Platell’s column was SEO-stuffed with phrases like “workshy heir” and “royal crisis” — all designed to trend on Google and bait shares. Her follow-ups even recycled Meghan’s old “baby brain” anecdote as if it were fresh ammunition. This isn’t journalism; it’s content farming — and farming in barren soil at that. • Christopher Wilson (Historian/Columnist): On 23 August, Wilson exhumed Forest Lodge’s “dark past,” weaponising obscure history to frame William and Catherine as morally negligent. The piece was algorithmically tied to MailOnline’s “slavery legacy” tag — the same tag used to cover Netflix’s colonial dramas. It wasn’t about informing readers; it was about capturing traffic off unrelated cultural debates. Like a ghoul rifling through parish records for sport. • A.N. Wilson (Royal Author): On 19 September, he declared William “angry and unhappy,” citing outdated stats and palace whispers. But more insidious was the Mail’s packaging: push alerts framed it as a “shock diagnosis,” with sidebars linking to Sussex puff pieces. William’s Earthshot success was buried, Harry’s “fun scamp” antics headlined. Manipulation by design, as brazen as a conjurer’s sleight of hand. • Charlotte Griffiths (Royal Correspondent): On 13 September, Griffiths painted William as the villain blocking Harry’s reconciliation. Her reliance on “anonymous sources” was classic Mail — unverifiable quotes crafted to fuel fan wars online. Each story was cross-promoted under MailOnline’s “Sussex comeback” hub, ensuring clicks from both sides of the aisle. Division is profitable, and she is its clerk of works. • Liz Jones (Columnist): On 5 September, Jones targeted Kate’s “bronde” hair during a visit to the Natural History Museum gardens, mixing sharp critique with grudging praise. Trolls called the lighter shade “washed out” or a “wig,” but Jones framed it as smart and empowering, signalling Kate’s post-cancer confidence. Her long history of nitpicking Kate’s hair — from 2012 bangs to post-2024 hospital styles — fits the pattern: personal opinion masquerading as insight, always driving clicks. She also recently editorialised against William as a future king, questioning his temperament and charisma, further stoking debate and subtly undermining the heir apparent. • Tina Brown (via Mail amplification): Brown’s Vanity Fair critiques were sliced into fragments and drip-fed as “Mail exclusives.” This is another trick: repackaging syndicated content as fresh scoops, maximising monetisation while disguising the recycling. In Fleet Street terms, it’s reheated cabbage passed off as coq au vin. • Rebecca English & Richard Eden: Even before their pivot, both poured fuel on the fire. English questioned the Forest Lodge move as a “taxpayer gamble” (24 September). Eden mocked it as indecisiveness (18 September). Both columns carried DailyMailPlus paywall teasers, designed to convert outrage into subscriptions. This wasn’t reporting. It was a coordinated content strategy: anonymous sourcing (cheap and unverifiable), data manipulation (engagement cherry-picking), and emotional framing (slavery, evictions, family rifts) — all calculated to maximise page dwell-time and comments. It’s the cynical mechanics of Fleet Street turned up to eleven, all brass band and no tune. The Asinine Pivot: From Smear-Mongers to Victimhood By late September, the Mail faced a problem: the narrative it had stoked was now boomeranging. Readers began calling out bias, subscribers fled, and Palace Confidential was haemorrhaging viewers. Cue the pivot. • On 25 September, Eden wailed about a “sinister plot.” • On 26 September, English warned of a “wedge between Charles and William.” Both pieces were smoke and mirrors. They rehashed earlier reporting — their own reporting — while pretending to be alarmed that anti-Wales narratives were spreading. Classic Mail: start the fire, then play the firefighter. They build the echo chamber, harvest the clicks, and when the backlash hits, shrug and blame “external forces.” It is not just hypocrisy — it is fraud. Fraud against readers, against journalism, against public trust. A betrayal wrapped in bunting. YouTube Implosion: Palace Confidential’s Monarchy Meltdown The nadir came mid-September when the Mail’s Palace Confidential channel speculated if William’s reign would “end the monarchy.” The video was a montage of the very print smears their own desk had churned out — workload cherry-picking, rift whispers, Forest Lodge doom-mongering. Within days, subscribers plummeted by the thousands. Comment sections filled with accusations of “hateful propaganda.” Forensic look at the analytics shows watch-time collapsing, click-through rates nosediving. Why? Because even Mail loyalists saw through the con. They were watching for the same reheated slop, dressed up as “exclusive debate.” According to VidIQ data, the Daily Mail Royals YouTube channel currently shows around 482,000 subscribers and has amassed over 313 million total video views. While those are nontrivial numbers, the channel’s estimated monthly earnings do not vindicate the hours of content churn — often in the modest range of £14,580–44,550 depending on viewership and ad engagement. In other words, the editorial excess is not being rewarded by proportionate audience loyalty or monetisation growth — the metrics are flat or weakening under scrutiny. Tubics data earlier in 2025 had placed the Daily Mail Royals subscriber count at ~464,000 with a view count ~292 million, indicating very slow growth — a channel in stagnation rather than ascendancy. This wasn’t content collapse; it was audience striking back. The vox populi spoke — and it said, enough. Follow the Money: The Mail’s Financial Desperation To understand why the Daily Mail behaves this way, you must follow the money. The pathology of smear campaigns is fed by urgent financial pressure. • Print decline: As of June 2025, the Daily Mail’s audited daily circulation stood at ~631,191 copies. That figure reflects a dramatic shrinkage over years — the paper, once selling well into multiple hundreds of thousands more, is now hollowed out. • Yearly comparisons: In 2024, ABC audit figures showed the Daily Mail had a daily circulation of 706,839 — meaning circulation has dropped by over 10% in roughly a year. • Advertiser exodus: In January 2025, the Mail announced it would merge its print and online teams and initiate cost-cutting, as major advertisers increasingly balk at brand adjacency with toxic, polarising content. The memo revealed that Mail+ (the paywall arm) had achieved 100,000 paying subscribers since its launch — a modest number given the scale of MailOnline’s reach. • Staff cuts as symptom: This internal restructuring is not optional — it is a forced retreat. Under the integration plan, job losses are anticipated. • Parent group pressure: DMG Media, the Mail’s owner, has made it clear that the print-online integration is about survival in a hostile advertising environment and declining print returns. In short, the Mail is bleeding. These royal smear campaigns aren’t just editorial cynicism — they’re a press outlet in full panic, scrabbling for clicks, subscriptions, and relevance by flogging scandal, outrage, and division. It’s the frantic thrashing of a swimmer who knows the tide has turned against them. Dirty Hands, No Excuses: Time to Hold the Mail Accountable The Daily Mail’s hands aren’t just dirty — they’re smeared, ink-stained with the fingerprints of manipulation. This wasn’t an accident, not a slip of the editorial pen. It was deliberate. They gamed algorithms like card sharks stacking a deck, pitted fandoms against one another like gladiators in the Coliseum, and weaponised history, health, and grief as if they were trinkets to be traded for clicks. CharlotteGriffiths , Amanda Platell, A.N. Wilson, Tina Brown, Liz Jones Goddess and the rest dutifully acted as stenographers for Sussex spin; Rebecca English and Richard Eden cried about “plots” they themselves had stoked; and editors signed off on every exaggeration, knowing that rage pays the bills. And now, when the wind shifts, they dare pivot to victimhood — as if they were the collateral and not the culprits. It’s theatre. Bad theatre. And the damage? It’s carved into public trust like graffiti on a listed building. The contrast couldn’t be clearer. William and Catherine ride out the storm with quiet resilience, their 74% approval proving that duty and dignity still matter. The monarchy carries on; the Mail only carries on as long as division sells. Readers aren’t fooled. Legacy media is collapsing under the weight of its own duplicity. Advertisers abandoned The Sun after Hillsborough. News of the World collapsed after phone hacking. And the Daily Mail — drunk on its own poison — is staggering toward the same graveyard. This was never “just gossip.” It was calculated sabotage dressed up in broadsheet clothing, a smear campaign masquerading as reportage, a racket that hollowed out the very idea of journalism. They didn’t just observe events; they made them happen. They didn’t reflect public opinion; they twisted it. They didn’t hold power to account; they abused it. The case is closed. The Waleses endure — proof that quiet service and real substance always outlast scandal. The Mail’s hit squad, by contrast, are done. History won’t remember them as kingmakers, only as mercenaries who confused clickbait for craft and outrage for insight, and in the process wrote their own obituaries. They won’t go down as journalists; they’ll go down as clickbait casualties — yesterday’s men and women, swept away by the very tide they tried to ride. #BoycottDailyMail #WeAreTheMediaNow #RoyalSmearCampaign #ExposeTheMail #MediaManipulation #StopTheSpin #TabloidTyranny #FakeNewsFactory #MonarchyVsMedia #FleetStreetFraud #TruthOverClickbait #InkStainedLies

༺𝐻𝑅𝐻 𝐿𝒶𝒹𝓎 𝒥༻ 👑

29,572 次观看 • 10 个月前

🦘🇦🇺My take on Ange Postecoglou. If you disagree, that's fine. Freedom of speech, your opinion might be listened to or not. Mine is, I know by who. That's what I care about. 🌏Postecoglou has coached every age group at national / international level on 3 continents. That's inspirational and commands respect, if he was to be found out, as he said, he'd have been a long time ago like these former pros who cry because they get a U19 team relegated (ask me the names). 🤓From a footballing standpoint, he's not making up theoretical shit like all these nerds jumping up on the Pro License barely coaching a team; and scrambling to figure out the reality of the sport/people in Phase 2, 3 doing the polar opposite to what they told everyone they'd do. 🧠The football Postecoglou sets up has room for decision making within a structure which is an extraordinary achievement from a coaching standpoint, and what every coach in the world should aspire to do. Ajax or Netherlands 1974, Nantes 1995, Rijkaard's Barcelona, Wenger's Arsenal. If you like "good football" , this is good football. If you want to win, pay more and get the best players. The correlation is right there. 🔁There's rotations everywhere (think triangles who tilt, carrier and two options short/long), and players have 2-3 options everytime. The right balance between combinations into feet and third man runs (third man runs are vital - and often forgotten when nerds coach teams and have a control kink) 🫡For that, you need a club culture of empowered players caring about the common good ; and also good enough to act selflessly to what the game demands (and actually execute it). ⚖️The challenge is that bang average off the mill pros do what they're told, can't do most things. And ones who can't do play the solo card - football is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport. 👀I can confidently second guess that the hesitation in collective movement suggest they're thinking in real time and not going "by the book" (which is microwave coaching). 👥How often Postecoglou talks about culture, turning up together for a meal before games. Old school, but actually grounded. This isn't a startup or UberEats. 🧘‍♂️There's a handful of adults coaching Premier League teams. Slot maybe, Howe, Emery, Frank, Glasner, Moyes, McKenna who value the holistic composition of performance: squad chemistry, work ethic, managing people and treating them as adults. Coincidence or not, I rate all of them. Coincidence, they all overperfom with the resources they have. 🚩Defensively, the idea to hold a high line can make sense on the occasion. Most of you don't work in football. People who do know the biggest paradox in the modern age is that lot of players are outstanding to think smart and execute fast in high pressure situations; yet are out of their depth when they have time and space to think. 🫣Chelsea 11v9 took half an hour to break down 9 fuckers on halfway line, and people know how badly it reflected on one of the worst assemblage of players ever seen pound for pound. And that's not Postecoglou's team. Then again, listen to who you want. I've done it too. 9v11 winning 5-2 from 2-1 down at National level whilst the other team was spamming diagonals out of play. 🚑The injury crisis is worrying, but it's also a vicious circle. Majority of clubs nowadays sign players to replace injured players. If you get one or two key players injured by the extreme random demands of the game (facing a Haaland, Jackson etc... stretches your CBs to the limit - Van de Ven got muscular in game injury like Rodri got injured like Fofana got injured). 🚁💰I don't think the training methods are in question; not should they be questioned more than Pep or Maresca's who can actually afford to get replacement brought in (and still get injuries) - and never get questioned. Spurs play Gray at CB. Chelsea can afford to call Chaloback, or City sign another 40 million a piece CB. 🕳️Spurs lost Kane and finished 5th, like nothing happened. That's outstanding. 📼⛳️Training clip: possession box to create the moment to change gear and find a striker dropping off the front. What happens then is a "wave" 3v2, with decision making. Drive diagonally, straight pass for diagonal runs. Affordances (what players perceive they can play) and match realism. See the cut off corners to guarantee runs going towards goal. Can't be more modern, evidence based, empowering, enjoyable and football realistic. 🏟️🎞️Game footage: look how they're using each pass as a timeline to allow a third man popping up in space. Good reaction on turnover. See another triangle being created, with players selflessly filling in the tips of the triangle even rotating. Matar Sarr gets sucked into the space, puts an outstanding goalmouth delivery with presence and bodies in the box - especially at the far post. Brennan who everyone called a flop. Tremendous, organic (= player led) output. What you can do = the team's outlook. ⚽️I'm talking football there, not theory, not pattern playbook, not fiscal optimisation. 📊Spurs are working on relative budget. Don't budget CL football. Spend 40% turnover on wages, when Chelsea's etc... are 70% or Leicester 120%. 🏇💉It's like the only clean horse in a race when others are stuffed with red bull, cocaine and creatine. And some of you Peaky Blinders are looking everywhere - even if you saw the episode where they stuff the horse to make it win.

🦘🇦🇺My take on Ange Postecoglou. If you disagree, that's fine. Freedom of speech, your opinion might be listened to or not. Mine is, I know by who. That's what I care about. 🌏Postecoglou has coached every age group at national / international level on 3 continents. That's inspirational and commands respect, if he was to be found out, as he said, he'd have been a long time ago like these former pros who cry because they get a U19 team relegated (ask me the names). 🤓From a footballing standpoint, he's not making up theoretical shit like all these nerds jumping up on the Pro License barely coaching a team; and scrambling to figure out the reality of the sport/people in Phase 2, 3 doing the polar opposite to what they told everyone they'd do. 🧠The football Postecoglou sets up has room for decision making within a structure which is an extraordinary achievement from a coaching standpoint, and what every coach in the world should aspire to do. Ajax or Netherlands 1974, Nantes 1995, Rijkaard's Barcelona, Wenger's Arsenal. If you like "good football" , this is good football. If you want to win, pay more and get the best players. The correlation is right there. 🔁There's rotations everywhere (think triangles who tilt, carrier and two options short/long), and players have 2-3 options everytime. The right balance between combinations into feet and third man runs (third man runs are vital - and often forgotten when nerds coach teams and have a control kink) 🫡For that, you need a club culture of empowered players caring about the common good ; and also good enough to act selflessly to what the game demands (and actually execute it). ⚖️The challenge is that bang average off the mill pros do what they're told, can't do most things. And ones who can't do play the solo card - football is an individual sport masquerading as a team sport. 👀I can confidently second guess that the hesitation in collective movement suggest they're thinking in real time and not going "by the book" (which is microwave coaching). 👥How often Postecoglou talks about culture, turning up together for a meal before games. Old school, but actually grounded. This isn't a startup or UberEats. 🧘‍♂️There's a handful of adults coaching Premier League teams. Slot maybe, Howe, Emery, Frank, Glasner, Moyes, McKenna who value the holistic composition of performance: squad chemistry, work ethic, managing people and treating them as adults. Coincidence or not, I rate all of them. Coincidence, they all overperfom with the resources they have. 🚩Defensively, the idea to hold a high line can make sense on the occasion. Most of you don't work in football. People who do know the biggest paradox in the modern age is that lot of players are outstanding to think smart and execute fast in high pressure situations; yet are out of their depth when they have time and space to think. 🫣Chelsea 11v9 took half an hour to break down 9 fuckers on halfway line, and people know how badly it reflected on one of the worst assemblage of players ever seen pound for pound. And that's not Postecoglou's team. Then again, listen to who you want. I've done it too. 9v11 winning 5-2 from 2-1 down at National level whilst the other team was spamming diagonals out of play. 🚑The injury crisis is worrying, but it's also a vicious circle. Majority of clubs nowadays sign players to replace injured players. If you get one or two key players injured by the extreme random demands of the game (facing a Haaland, Jackson etc... stretches your CBs to the limit - Van de Ven got muscular in game injury like Rodri got injured like Fofana got injured). 🚁💰I don't think the training methods are in question; not should they be questioned more than Pep or Maresca's who can actually afford to get replacement brought in (and still get injuries) - and never get questioned. Spurs play Gray at CB. Chelsea can afford to call Chaloback, or City sign another 40 million a piece CB. 🕳️Spurs lost Kane and finished 5th, like nothing happened. That's outstanding. 📼⛳️Training clip: possession box to create the moment to change gear and find a striker dropping off the front. What happens then is a "wave" 3v2, with decision making. Drive diagonally, straight pass for diagonal runs. Affordances (what players perceive they can play) and match realism. See the cut off corners to guarantee runs going towards goal. Can't be more modern, evidence based, empowering, enjoyable and football realistic. 🏟️🎞️Game footage: look how they're using each pass as a timeline to allow a third man popping up in space. Good reaction on turnover. See another triangle being created, with players selflessly filling in the tips of the triangle even rotating. Matar Sarr gets sucked into the space, puts an outstanding goalmouth delivery with presence and bodies in the box - especially at the far post. Brennan who everyone called a flop. Tremendous, organic (= player led) output. What you can do = the team's outlook. ⚽️I'm talking football there, not theory, not pattern playbook, not fiscal optimisation. 📊Spurs are working on relative budget. Don't budget CL football. Spend 40% turnover on wages, when Chelsea's etc... are 70% or Leicester 120%. 🏇💉It's like the only clean horse in a race when others are stuffed with red bull, cocaine and creatine. And some of you Peaky Blinders are looking everywhere - even if you saw the episode where they stuff the horse to make it win.

S.

229,641 次观看 • 1 年前

$The July 4th weekend All-In The All-In Podcast turned into a long argument about who owns the intelligence layer. The besties think enterprises just woke up to a trap they had been walking into, here's how the conversation went (save this): ◽️ The Palantir-Nvidia deal is a bet against the model-layer duopoly. Palantir will use Nvidia's Nemotron open models to build a custom frontier-quality model for US government agencies, and the agencies own the hardware, the data, and the weights. Sacks framed it as structural: an application company and a chip company both want a competitive model layer, so they are natural partners against a two-provider middle. ◽️ Alex Karp's CNBC "crashout" was actually the thesis. Karp argued enterprises have lost trust in the frontier labs and want to own their compute, models, data, and alpha. Sacks translated it as a new definition of enterprise AI safety: safety means the model provider cannot hoover up your proprietary knowledge and turn it into its next product. ◽️ Figma is the cautionary tale that made it real. Anthropic launched Claude Design into Figma's category, its chief product officer sat on Figma's board and resigned only 3 days before launch, and Figma's stock is down about 50% this year while Anthropic's valuation surged. Sacks listed Claude Science, Security, Legal, Financial, and Code as the same move: dominate the model layer, then take the lucrative verticals. ◽️ The playbook has a name, and it is Microsoft and Google. Sacks argued Anthropic is running the operating-system strategy: own the layer everyone builds on, then walk up the stack. His Google receipt is that fewer than half of searches now send you off-site, versus an early Google that prided itself on how fast it kicked you away. ◽️ The BCG number is what raises the stakes. Chamath cited a BCG return-on-capital-employed study: the cost of capital is back to its long-run 8 to 11%, and half of large US companies cannot earn returns above it. If you are already teetering on your cost of capital, handing your alpha to a provider that may compete with you is not a luxury risk, it is fatal. ◽️ The 16.4x number is the whole argument in one data point. Chamath ran a code-migration task through 8090's harness. Wrapping Claude was 1.4x cheaper and 1.5x faster than Claude Opus alone. Wrapping the best open-source model was 16.4x cheaper, at about 3x slower. For a background task, three extra hours to cut cost by 16x is not a close call. ◽️ Even at 100x cheaper, enterprises were saying no for the wrong reason. Chamath relayed an ex-Meta PM's point that companies reject open models over China and safety fears, when they could host those same open weights on their own GPUs in US data centers with nothing flowing back. The safety objection, she argued, is backwards: the leak is the data you hand the frontier labs. ◽️ Friedberg says the frontier labs are trying to commoditize their own customers. Anthropic has been signing up life-sciences companies to feed a new life-focused model in exchange for early access, and nearly everyone he has talked to now refuses, recognizing that data they spent billions generating becomes worthless once it is pooled with everyone else's. ◽️ The deployment topology is shifting from big hubs to distributed spokes. Friedberg's map: the old assumption was a few capital-advantaged mega-clusters plus inference clouds. The new one is large hubs, medium hubs (enterprise training clusters), and distributed spokes, including on-prem inference in your own building. Owning your weights is the point. ◽️ Chamath's endgame is running GLM himself. An industry contact told him that with harness post-training and telemetry, an open Chinese model like GLM could get as good as Anthropic's Mythos. His conclusion: take GLM, control it soup-to-nuts on US hardware with only US citizens touching it, and pay a fraction. ◽️ The Apple analogy sharpens why renting intelligence is different from renting distribution. Chamath argued Apple is the only platform that respected developers, deliberately keeping its stock apps basic to protect the ecosystem and collect its 30% tax. There is no 30% tax on open models, and worse, you cannot rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor without ending up identical to them. ◽️ Nvidia's open model is now good enough to matter. Calacanis claimed you cannot tell Jensen Huang's Nemotron from Claude on 95% of searches, and that Nvidia downplayed the model until now to avoid alarming its top customers. The gloves came off once OpenAI, Anthropic, and Elon all signaled their own silicon ambitions. ◽️ Sacks sized the duopoly: roughly $60B and $40B in ARR. Anthropic is around ~$60 billion of ARR, OpenAI at ~$40 billion, and no one else generates meaningful model-layer revenue. Sacks's policy line: the US does not ban monopolies, only anti-competitive tactics, but the government should do nothing to make the duopoly more likely. ◽️ The token deflation call: 90% a year for three years. Calacanis predicted token costs fall 90% annually for three years, putting the price of intelligence near free and making it rational to waste tokens on hardware you already own. Friedberg's version is a 70/20/10 split between big cloud, local, and other clouds. ◽️ A wave of platform lock-in spending is already landing. Calacanis flagged Microsoft standing up a roughly $2.5 billion forward-deployed-engineer effort and Amazon spending about $1 billion on the same, plus OpenAI's version. His read: enterprises will slam the door, because letting a provider's engineers study your business is how it ends up in their model. ◽️ The server-per-employee prediction. Calacanis expects every employee to get $10,000 to $20,000 of local compute, a Mac Studio or a high-RAM Dell, running a personal local model that syncs to a thin laptop. A server per person, so nothing leaks. ◽️ On jobs, the data does not show present-tense loss. Sacks cited a RAMP and Revelio Labs study of over 21,000 US firms: the heaviest AI spenders grew headcount about 10% over two years, and entry-level headcount grew even faster at 12%. Friedberg's harder claim: there is no AI job loss yet, only clunky, gradual value creation, and the media will not reverse its narrative because that destroys its credibility. ◽️ The displacement case is real but forward-dated. The counterpoint on the show was that customer support, entry-level data entry and BPO, and driving are the near-term displacements, with Waymo cited as present-tense evidence: in markets where it hits critical mass, Uber and Lyft stop recruiting drivers. Sacks noted most US entry-level support was already offshored, so the acute risk sits in those countries first. ◽️ The human-premium counternarrative. Friedberg argued that as automation spreads, human interaction gets a premium: the skilled bartender, the real driver, the human-in-the-loop tier. He cited the company (referenced as Klarna) that hyped replacing its whole support team with AI, then reversed a year later on brand grounds. ◽️ The export-control episode needed three conditions, and Sacks says do not over-read it. Commerce lifted controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 after two weeks, with Mythos 5 restored to US customers around June 26 once co-founder Tom Brown replaced Dario as lead negotiator. Sacks's three conditions: Dario boasting for months about a cyber weapon, Amazon reporting failed guardrails in testing, and Dario refusing to roll Fable back. His message to allies: this was a particular set of circumstances rather than the debut of a standing lever. ◽️ The import question nobody answered cleanly. Calacanis pressed on why the US blocks Chinese cars and drones but not Chinese open models like DeepSeek and Kimi. Sacks's answer: a forked open model run on US hardware stops being Chinese, and banning open source would isolate the US and impose a token tax on American enterprises, so let the market decide if American open models win. ◽️ The California fiscal story is a business-climate story. Friedberg walked through the numbers behind Newsom's "balanced" $351B budget: expenses exceed revenue and $20-40B is borrowed to close the gap, the budget grew 65% in six years ($215B to $355B), personal income tax is $142B of ~$211B revenue with the top 1% (150,000 people) paying $70B of it, and the corporate rate of 8.9% sits far above Texas at zero. ◽️ The tax base is leaving, and the state is now taxing everyone else. Friedberg cited 1 to 1.5% of adjusted gross income leaving each year (about 15% over a decade), at least 15 Fortune 500 HQs and ~2,100 firms gone since 2019, and a new 8% software sales tax hitting Word, Gmail, and ChatGPT subscriptions plus a health-insurance tax, on top of a now-permanent 14.4% top bracket. The liabilities behind it run $1.4T in debt, up to $1.5T in unfunded pensions senior to state bonds, and ~$40B/year in out-year deficits. Lastly, the line that framed the whole show: "You can't rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor." That is the sovereignty thesis in one sentence, and every number in this episode is an argument for it. ____ Follow Fireside Alpha for more summaries on key business and technology conversations.$

The July 4th weekend All-In The All-In Podcast turned into a long argument about who owns the intelligence layer. The besties think enterprises just woke up to a trap they had been walking into, here's how the conversation went (save this): ◽️ The Palantir-Nvidia deal is a bet against the model-layer duopoly. Palantir will use Nvidia's Nemotron open models to build a custom frontier-quality model for US government agencies, and the agencies own the hardware, the data, and the weights. Sacks framed it as structural: an application company and a chip company both want a competitive model layer, so they are natural partners against a two-provider middle. ◽️ Alex Karp's CNBC "crashout" was actually the thesis. Karp argued enterprises have lost trust in the frontier labs and want to own their compute, models, data, and alpha. Sacks translated it as a new definition of enterprise AI safety: safety means the model provider cannot hoover up your proprietary knowledge and turn it into its next product. ◽️ Figma is the cautionary tale that made it real. Anthropic launched Claude Design into Figma's category, its chief product officer sat on Figma's board and resigned only 3 days before launch, and Figma's stock is down about 50% this year while Anthropic's valuation surged. Sacks listed Claude Science, Security, Legal, Financial, and Code as the same move: dominate the model layer, then take the lucrative verticals. ◽️ The playbook has a name, and it is Microsoft and Google. Sacks argued Anthropic is running the operating-system strategy: own the layer everyone builds on, then walk up the stack. His Google receipt is that fewer than half of searches now send you off-site, versus an early Google that prided itself on how fast it kicked you away. ◽️ The BCG number is what raises the stakes. Chamath cited a BCG return-on-capital-employed study: the cost of capital is back to its long-run 8 to 11%, and half of large US companies cannot earn returns above it. If you are already teetering on your cost of capital, handing your alpha to a provider that may compete with you is not a luxury risk, it is fatal. ◽️ The 16.4x number is the whole argument in one data point. Chamath ran a code-migration task through 8090's harness. Wrapping Claude was 1.4x cheaper and 1.5x faster than Claude Opus alone. Wrapping the best open-source model was 16.4x cheaper, at about 3x slower. For a background task, three extra hours to cut cost by 16x is not a close call. ◽️ Even at 100x cheaper, enterprises were saying no for the wrong reason. Chamath relayed an ex-Meta PM's point that companies reject open models over China and safety fears, when they could host those same open weights on their own GPUs in US data centers with nothing flowing back. The safety objection, she argued, is backwards: the leak is the data you hand the frontier labs. ◽️ Friedberg says the frontier labs are trying to commoditize their own customers. Anthropic has been signing up life-sciences companies to feed a new life-focused model in exchange for early access, and nearly everyone he has talked to now refuses, recognizing that data they spent billions generating becomes worthless once it is pooled with everyone else's. ◽️ The deployment topology is shifting from big hubs to distributed spokes. Friedberg's map: the old assumption was a few capital-advantaged mega-clusters plus inference clouds. The new one is large hubs, medium hubs (enterprise training clusters), and distributed spokes, including on-prem inference in your own building. Owning your weights is the point. ◽️ Chamath's endgame is running GLM himself. An industry contact told him that with harness post-training and telemetry, an open Chinese model like GLM could get as good as Anthropic's Mythos. His conclusion: take GLM, control it soup-to-nuts on US hardware with only US citizens touching it, and pay a fraction. ◽️ The Apple analogy sharpens why renting intelligence is different from renting distribution. Chamath argued Apple is the only platform that respected developers, deliberately keeping its stock apps basic to protect the ecosystem and collect its 30% tax. There is no 30% tax on open models, and worse, you cannot rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor without ending up identical to them. ◽️ Nvidia's open model is now good enough to matter. Calacanis claimed you cannot tell Jensen Huang's Nemotron from Claude on 95% of searches, and that Nvidia downplayed the model until now to avoid alarming its top customers. The gloves came off once OpenAI, Anthropic, and Elon all signaled their own silicon ambitions. ◽️ Sacks sized the duopoly: roughly $60B and $40B in ARR. Anthropic is around ~$60 billion of ARR, OpenAI at ~$40 billion, and no one else generates meaningful model-layer revenue. Sacks's policy line: the US does not ban monopolies, only anti-competitive tactics, but the government should do nothing to make the duopoly more likely. ◽️ The token deflation call: 90% a year for three years. Calacanis predicted token costs fall 90% annually for three years, putting the price of intelligence near free and making it rational to waste tokens on hardware you already own. Friedberg's version is a 70/20/10 split between big cloud, local, and other clouds. ◽️ A wave of platform lock-in spending is already landing. Calacanis flagged Microsoft standing up a roughly $2.5 billion forward-deployed-engineer effort and Amazon spending about $1 billion on the same, plus OpenAI's version. His read: enterprises will slam the door, because letting a provider's engineers study your business is how it ends up in their model. ◽️ The server-per-employee prediction. Calacanis expects every employee to get $10,000 to $20,000 of local compute, a Mac Studio or a high-RAM Dell, running a personal local model that syncs to a thin laptop. A server per person, so nothing leaks. ◽️ On jobs, the data does not show present-tense loss. Sacks cited a RAMP and Revelio Labs study of over 21,000 US firms: the heaviest AI spenders grew headcount about 10% over two years, and entry-level headcount grew even faster at 12%. Friedberg's harder claim: there is no AI job loss yet, only clunky, gradual value creation, and the media will not reverse its narrative because that destroys its credibility. ◽️ The displacement case is real but forward-dated. The counterpoint on the show was that customer support, entry-level data entry and BPO, and driving are the near-term displacements, with Waymo cited as present-tense evidence: in markets where it hits critical mass, Uber and Lyft stop recruiting drivers. Sacks noted most US entry-level support was already offshored, so the acute risk sits in those countries first. ◽️ The human-premium counternarrative. Friedberg argued that as automation spreads, human interaction gets a premium: the skilled bartender, the real driver, the human-in-the-loop tier. He cited the company (referenced as Klarna) that hyped replacing its whole support team with AI, then reversed a year later on brand grounds. ◽️ The export-control episode needed three conditions, and Sacks says do not over-read it. Commerce lifted controls on Anthropic's Fable 5 after two weeks, with Mythos 5 restored to US customers around June 26 once co-founder Tom Brown replaced Dario as lead negotiator. Sacks's three conditions: Dario boasting for months about a cyber weapon, Amazon reporting failed guardrails in testing, and Dario refusing to roll Fable back. His message to allies: this was a particular set of circumstances rather than the debut of a standing lever. ◽️ The import question nobody answered cleanly. Calacanis pressed on why the US blocks Chinese cars and drones but not Chinese open models like DeepSeek and Kimi. Sacks's answer: a forked open model run on US hardware stops being Chinese, and banning open source would isolate the US and impose a token tax on American enterprises, so let the market decide if American open models win. ◽️ The California fiscal story is a business-climate story. Friedberg walked through the numbers behind Newsom's "balanced" $351B budget: expenses exceed revenue and $20-40B is borrowed to close the gap, the budget grew 65% in six years ($215B to $355B), personal income tax is $142B of ~$211B revenue with the top 1% (150,000 people) paying $70B of it, and the corporate rate of 8.9% sits far above Texas at zero. ◽️ The tax base is leaving, and the state is now taxing everyone else. Friedberg cited 1 to 1.5% of adjusted gross income leaving each year (about 15% over a decade), at least 15 Fortune 500 HQs and ~2,100 firms gone since 2019, and a new 8% software sales tax hitting Word, Gmail, and ChatGPT subscriptions plus a health-insurance tax, on top of a now-permanent 14.4% top bracket. The liabilities behind it run $1.4T in debt, up to $1.5T in unfunded pensions senior to state bonds, and ~$40B/year in out-year deficits. Lastly, the line that framed the whole show: "You can't rent intelligence from the same place that rents it to your competitor." That is the sovereignty thesis in one sentence, and every number in this episode is an argument for it. ____ Follow Fireside Alpha for more summaries on key business and technology conversations.

Fireside Alpha

55,816 次观看 • 1 个月前

Here are the facts about “The Missing Scientists” story: The Air Force general who ran Wright-Patterson's research lab, oversaw the Pentagon's most classified programs, and was named in WikiLeaks emails as a central figure in UFO disclosure vanished from his Albuquerque home without triggering a single surveillance camera. Eight days earlier, Trump ordered the Pentagon to begin releasing UFO files. In the same twelve-month window, the NASA scientist who co-invented a strategic rocket engine super alloy at the same Wright Patterson lab overseen by the General disappeared on a hike, an MIT fusion physicist (who was as deep as anybody on “fast magnetic reconnection problems” which are the fundamental bottleneck to widescale nuclear fusion) was assassinated on his doorstep, and a very-polymathic Caltech astronomer working on the state-of-the-art Vera Rubin Observatory was shot dead on his porch. There is a pattern: scientists at the frontier of fusion, exotic propulsion, advanced metallurgy, and space surveillance are being silenced and taken out. We trace this history back decades and place it in its proper context: scientific suppression in frontier areas isn’t new; it’s an almost-ubiquitous historical artifact. 1. The General Who Knew Everything Vanished Without a Trace On February 27, 2026, retired Major General Neil McCasland left his Albuquerque home on foot. He left behind his phone, prescription glasses, and smartwatch. He took a red backpack, his wallet, and a .38 caliber revolver. His wife reported him missing within three hours. Despite FBI involvement, the Air Force Office of Special Investigations, search dogs, drones, helicopters, horseback teams, FLIR sweeps, and 700 canvassed households, no confirmed sighting of McCasland has ever surfaced. Surveillance cameras covered both ends of his street. None captured his direction of travel. After weeks of searching, the only item recovered was a gray Air Force sweatshirt a mile east of his house. Testing could not confirm it was his. 2. McCasland Ran the Pentagon's Most Classified Science Programs McCasland graduated from the Air Force Academy, earned a PhD in astronautical engineering from MIT on a Hertz Fellowship, and studied at Harvard's Kennedy School. From 2009 to 2011, he served as Director of Special Programs in the office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions, Technology, and Logistics, the office that oversees acquisition special access programs accounting for roughly 75 to 80 percent of all SAPs in the Department of Defense. From 2011 to 2013, he commanded the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, overseeing a $2.2 billion portfolio spanning advanced materials, exotic propulsion, and future weapons. Wright-Patterson is the alleged home of the Roswell crash debris. McCasland ran the entire lab. 3. WikiLeaks Emails Placed McCasland at the Center of UFO Disclosure In 2016, hacked emails from Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta revealed correspondence from Tom DeLonge naming McCasland directly. DeLonge wrote that McCasland helped assemble his advisory team, was deeply aware of what DeLonge was trying to achieve, and had received a four-hour briefing on the project. DeLonge added that McCasland ran the laboratory at Wright-Patterson where the Roswell material was shipped. McCasland's wife Susan later acknowledged he was caught up in the Russian hack and had less contact with DeLonge after the emails were released. Less, not zero. A Google Calendar invite in the same email dump shows Susan herself accepted an invitation for a DeLonge-Podesta meeting. 4. Disappeared Eight Days After Trump's UFO Disclosure Order On February 19, 2026, Trump announced on Truth Social that he was directing the Pentagon to begin releasing government files related to aliens and UAP. Eight days later, McCasland was gone. If McCasland was involved in legacy UFO programs, the release order could have been a pressure point. His wife had reported that both of them were seeing a doctor for anxiety, poor sleep, and memory issues. She also said he had made a comment about not wanting to live if his body and mind kept deteriorating, but characterized it as an offhand remark, not a genuine threat. She later stated publicly that McCasland was not confused or disoriented. The week before he vanished, he cycled 60 miles. 5. The Super Alloy Scientist Vanished 30 Feet Behind Her Friends On June 22, 2025, NASA material scientist Monica Reza disappeared while hiking near Mount Waterman in the Angeles National Forest. She was 30 feet behind her group and then she was gone. Search and rescue scoured the area for eight days by land and air. They found her beanie roughly 400 yards off the trail. Nothing else. Civilian volunteer teams continued searching for six months. No remains, no dens, no evidence of animal attack. Multiple searchers who descended the nearest ravine described the terrain as steep but not steep enough to be fatal. 6. Super Alloy Invention Was Developed Under McCasland's Research Lab Monica Reza and Dallas Hardwick co-invented Mondeloy, a nickel-based super alloy engineered to survive the crushing pressure and oxygen-rich conditions that had defeated every previous rocket engine material. The alloy ended America's dependence on Russia's RD-180 engine for sensitive national security launches. Mondeloy was co-developed through a partnership between the Air Force Research Laboratory and Pratt and Whitney Rocketdyne. Neil McCasland arrived at Wright-Patterson as AFRL commander in May 2011 while the Mondeloy program was still active. Dallas Hardwick was embedded in the lab's materials directorate until 2012. The scientist who solved one of America's hardest propulsion problems and the general who oversaw the lab where it happened both vanished within eight months of each other. 7. MIT's Top Fusion Physicist Was Shot in His Doorway On December 15, 2025, Nuno Loureiro was shot in the foyer of his Brookline home at 8:30 p.m. His wife, mother, and daughters were inside playing cards. His 12-year-old daughter had opened the door moments earlier and saw a man she thought was a delivery driver holding a package with a barcode. Loureiro replaced her at the door and was hit in the upper chest, abdomen, and both thighs. He was conscious and alert when paramedics arrived. He went into surgery that night and was pronounced dead the following morning. Loureiro was deputy director of MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center and one of the world's leading experts on magnetic reconnection, the key obstacle to sustained nuclear fusion. 8. His Killer Planned for Three Years, Then Went Dark for 48 Hours The top suspect, Claudio Valente, a Portuguese national who had studied physics at the same Lisbon university as Loureiro in the 1990s, had already opened fire at Brown University two days earlier, killing two students. Valente spent three years conducting surveillance on the Brown campus before the attack. But between the Brown shooting on December 13 and Loureiro's murder on December 15, Valente's movements go largely unaccounted for. How he located Loureiro, confirmed he was home, and timed the approach remains unexplained. Loureiro had just returned from a trip to Washington. Valente's confession videos describe both attacks as intentional but leave the motive for targeting Loureiro maddeningly vague. 9. The Caltech Astronomer Was Killed by a Man a Judge Had Already Released On February 16, 2026, Caltech astronomer Carl Grillmair was shot dead on his porch in Llano, California. Two months earlier, 29-year-old Freddy Snyder had been arrested on Grillmair's property carrying a loaded unregistered rifle. Despite the trespassing charge and an attempted jail escape, a judge released Snyder on his own recognizance and told him to take a gun safety course. Snyder returned and killed him. Grillmair had recently begun work on the Vera Rubin Observatory, the most powerful sky survey ever built, one capable of detecting interstellar objects and potentially UFOs in Earth's orbit. He was also a renowned polymathic genius, like Loureiro. Every image Rubin captures is reviewed and filtered by the Pentagon before scientists are allowed to see it. Investigators have found no motive and no prior relationship between the two men. Why This Matters But the concentration of loss at the exact frontier of fusion, propulsion, advanced materials, and space surveillance is difficult to dismiss. Congressman Tim Burchett told the DailyMail the numbers seem very high in these certain areas of research. Constitutional lawyer Danny Sheehan described a covert circle of 24 retired officials from the DOD, CIA, and private aerospace quietly working to bring classified UAP programs back under government oversight. The real crown jewels are not weapons or hard drives. They are the minds that solved the problems no one else could. And those minds keep disappearing. Full episode documents this in detail 👇

Here are the facts about “The Missing Scientists” story: The Air Force general who ran Wright-Patterson's research lab, oversaw the Pentagon's most classified programs, and was named in WikiLeaks emails as a central figure in UFO disclosure vanished from his Albuquerque home without triggering a single surveillance camera. Eight days earlier, Trump ordered the Pentagon to begin releasing UFO files. In the same twelve-month window, the NASA scientist who co-invented a strategic rocket engine super alloy at the same Wright Patterson lab overseen by the General disappeared on a hike, an MIT fusion physicist (who was as deep as anybody on “fast magnetic reconnection problems” which are the fundamental bottleneck to widescale nuclear fusion) was assassinated on his doorstep, and a very-polymathic Caltech astronomer working on the state-of-the-art Vera Rubin Observatory was shot dead on his porch. There is a pattern: scientists at the frontier of fusion, exotic propulsion, advanced metallurgy, and space surveillance are being silenced and taken out. We trace this history back decades and place it in its proper context: scientific suppression in frontier areas isn’t new; it’s an almost-ubiquitous historical artifact. 1. The General Who Knew Everything Vanished Without a Trace On February 27, 2026, retired Major General Neil McCasland left his Albuquerque home on foot. He left behind his phone, prescription glasses, and smartwatch. He took a red backpack, his wallet, and a .38 caliber revolver. His wife reported him missing within three hours. Despite FBI involvement, the Air Force Office of Special Investigations, search dogs, drones, helicopters, horseback teams, FLIR sweeps, and 700 canvassed households, no confirmed sighting of McCasland has ever surfaced. Surveillance cameras covered both ends of his street. None captured his direction of travel. After weeks of searching, the only item recovered was a gray Air Force sweatshirt a mile east of his house. Testing could not confirm it was his. 2. McCasland Ran the Pentagon's Most Classified Science Programs McCasland graduated from the Air Force Academy, earned a PhD in astronautical engineering from MIT on a Hertz Fellowship, and studied at Harvard's Kennedy School. From 2009 to 2011, he served as Director of Special Programs in the office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Acquisitions, Technology, and Logistics, the office that oversees acquisition special access programs accounting for roughly 75 to 80 percent of all SAPs in the Department of Defense. From 2011 to 2013, he commanded the Air Force Research Laboratory at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, overseeing a $2.2 billion portfolio spanning advanced materials, exotic propulsion, and future weapons. Wright-Patterson is the alleged home of the Roswell crash debris. McCasland ran the entire lab. 3. WikiLeaks Emails Placed McCasland at the Center of UFO Disclosure In 2016, hacked emails from Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta revealed correspondence from Tom DeLonge naming McCasland directly. DeLonge wrote that McCasland helped assemble his advisory team, was deeply aware of what DeLonge was trying to achieve, and had received a four-hour briefing on the project. DeLonge added that McCasland ran the laboratory at Wright-Patterson where the Roswell material was shipped. McCasland's wife Susan later acknowledged he was caught up in the Russian hack and had less contact with DeLonge after the emails were released. Less, not zero. A Google Calendar invite in the same email dump shows Susan herself accepted an invitation for a DeLonge-Podesta meeting. 4. Disappeared Eight Days After Trump's UFO Disclosure Order On February 19, 2026, Trump announced on Truth Social that he was directing the Pentagon to begin releasing government files related to aliens and UAP. Eight days later, McCasland was gone. If McCasland was involved in legacy UFO programs, the release order could have been a pressure point. His wife had reported that both of them were seeing a doctor for anxiety, poor sleep, and memory issues. She also said he had made a comment about not wanting to live if his body and mind kept deteriorating, but characterized it as an offhand remark, not a genuine threat. She later stated publicly that McCasland was not confused or disoriented. The week before he vanished, he cycled 60 miles. 5. The Super Alloy Scientist Vanished 30 Feet Behind Her Friends On June 22, 2025, NASA material scientist Monica Reza disappeared while hiking near Mount Waterman in the Angeles National Forest. She was 30 feet behind her group and then she was gone. Search and rescue scoured the area for eight days by land and air. They found her beanie roughly 400 yards off the trail. Nothing else. Civilian volunteer teams continued searching for six months. No remains, no dens, no evidence of animal attack. Multiple searchers who descended the nearest ravine described the terrain as steep but not steep enough to be fatal. 6. Super Alloy Invention Was Developed Under McCasland's Research Lab Monica Reza and Dallas Hardwick co-invented Mondeloy, a nickel-based super alloy engineered to survive the crushing pressure and oxygen-rich conditions that had defeated every previous rocket engine material. The alloy ended America's dependence on Russia's RD-180 engine for sensitive national security launches. Mondeloy was co-developed through a partnership between the Air Force Research Laboratory and Pratt and Whitney Rocketdyne. Neil McCasland arrived at Wright-Patterson as AFRL commander in May 2011 while the Mondeloy program was still active. Dallas Hardwick was embedded in the lab's materials directorate until 2012. The scientist who solved one of America's hardest propulsion problems and the general who oversaw the lab where it happened both vanished within eight months of each other. 7. MIT's Top Fusion Physicist Was Shot in His Doorway On December 15, 2025, Nuno Loureiro was shot in the foyer of his Brookline home at 8:30 p.m. His wife, mother, and daughters were inside playing cards. His 12-year-old daughter had opened the door moments earlier and saw a man she thought was a delivery driver holding a package with a barcode. Loureiro replaced her at the door and was hit in the upper chest, abdomen, and both thighs. He was conscious and alert when paramedics arrived. He went into surgery that night and was pronounced dead the following morning. Loureiro was deputy director of MIT's Plasma Science and Fusion Center and one of the world's leading experts on magnetic reconnection, the key obstacle to sustained nuclear fusion. 8. His Killer Planned for Three Years, Then Went Dark for 48 Hours The top suspect, Claudio Valente, a Portuguese national who had studied physics at the same Lisbon university as Loureiro in the 1990s, had already opened fire at Brown University two days earlier, killing two students. Valente spent three years conducting surveillance on the Brown campus before the attack. But between the Brown shooting on December 13 and Loureiro's murder on December 15, Valente's movements go largely unaccounted for. How he located Loureiro, confirmed he was home, and timed the approach remains unexplained. Loureiro had just returned from a trip to Washington. Valente's confession videos describe both attacks as intentional but leave the motive for targeting Loureiro maddeningly vague. 9. The Caltech Astronomer Was Killed by a Man a Judge Had Already Released On February 16, 2026, Caltech astronomer Carl Grillmair was shot dead on his porch in Llano, California. Two months earlier, 29-year-old Freddy Snyder had been arrested on Grillmair's property carrying a loaded unregistered rifle. Despite the trespassing charge and an attempted jail escape, a judge released Snyder on his own recognizance and told him to take a gun safety course. Snyder returned and killed him. Grillmair had recently begun work on the Vera Rubin Observatory, the most powerful sky survey ever built, one capable of detecting interstellar objects and potentially UFOs in Earth's orbit. He was also a renowned polymathic genius, like Loureiro. Every image Rubin captures is reviewed and filtered by the Pentagon before scientists are allowed to see it. Investigators have found no motive and no prior relationship between the two men. Why This Matters But the concentration of loss at the exact frontier of fusion, propulsion, advanced materials, and space surveillance is difficult to dismiss. Congressman Tim Burchett told the DailyMail the numbers seem very high in these certain areas of research. Constitutional lawyer Danny Sheehan described a covert circle of 24 retired officials from the DOD, CIA, and private aerospace quietly working to bring classified UAP programs back under government oversight. The real crown jewels are not weapons or hard drives. They are the minds that solved the problems no one else could. And those minds keep disappearing. Full episode documents this in detail 👇

Jesse Michels

260,004 次观看 • 4 个月前

From Creator to Founder: The Rollercoaster Journey of Building Chatter Social Man, what a journey it’s been so far. Four years ago, I was just another creator, spending late nights on Clubhouse during the height of the pandemic. Like so many others, I was searching for connection, for community, for something meaningful. But what I found there wasn’t just connection—it was purpose. Alongside my brother, Jonathan Bing, we built a nightly show that reached over 5 million people. Imagine that: 5 million lives touched by conversations that felt real and unfiltered, all on a platform that at its peak had 10 million monthly active users. Clubhouse was magic. But then the decline began. Watching the platform struggle, I couldn’t help but reflect: what made it great? What went wrong? And what could the future look like if we did things differently? The Spark of Chatter As a content creator, I understood the needs of both creators and users. I knew what excited people, what kept them engaged, and what made them leave. Clubhouse had tapped into something special, but it had missed the mark on scalability and sustainability. By September 2023, I couldn’t stop thinking about the potential for something new—something that brought back the magic of real-time interaction but made it scalable, engaging, and sticky. And so, I set out to build Chatter Social. But I wasn’t a tech founder. I didn’t have a background in software development or a network of Silicon Valley insiders. What I did have was determination and the belief that if I could bring the right people together, we could build something extraordinary. Building the Team The journey to build Chatter started with assembling a team. Through my network from my days on Clubhouse, I found Samir, my first CTO. He believed in the vision and was instrumental in getting the project off the ground. Shortly after, I connected with Tyler, our Head of Design, whose creativity brought life to our ideas. A developer joined us soon after, and we were off to the races. By the end of 2023, Samir had to step away due to other commitments, and we promoted the developer to CTO. At the same time, I brought on Banko, a Sony music executive, as our CMO. Banko’s connections led to one of our biggest early wins: landing Davido, a global superstar, as an owner-ambassador. To this day, I still marvel at the fact that Davido believed in our vision when all we had were Tyler’s Figma designs. From Dream to Reality Early 2024 was a whirlwind. We hired Yurii and Vasyl, two developers from Ukraine who brought incredible skill and dedication to the team. Vasyl, in particular, stood out as a leader and has since earned an equity position in the company. But despite these wins, we were facing growing pains. Our new CTO struggled to meet deadlines, and as a result, I found myself constantly pushing back the launch date. What started as a January release turned into February, then March, then April, then May. By then, people on Twitter Spaces—where I had been hyping up the platform—started doubting if we even had a product. Launch and Lessons June 1, 2024, marked a turning point. It was the day my son Noah was born and the day we launched Chatter in private beta. We started with just 40 users, but by the end of the month, we had grown to 1,000. The engagement was unbelievable. Users loved it, even though we had launched with just one feature: live rooms. This represented less than 20% of what we had planned, but it was enough to show that we were onto something big. In July, we launched our public beta on the App Store as an invite-only platform. Within 48 hours, Chatter ranked as a top 30 social app in over 30 countries. But our invite system throttled access, and most users couldn’t get in. While engagement metrics soared for those inside, our AWS costs exploded. In August, our AWS bill hit $10,000. By September, it had climbed to $15,000, and we were drowning in bugs and glitches. The breaking point came when our CTO became unresponsive, often disappearing during critical moments. Users were dropping off, frustrated by the issues, developers were confused and the team was also growing increasingly frustrated, I made the tough decision to let him go. A New Beginning Enter Horane, a long-time user of Chatter who had been with us since private beta. He was the first to discover some of the most innovative use cases for the platform and had a deep passion for its potential. After meeting him in person at a Chatter event, I knew he was the right person to step into the CTO role. When Horane took over, we discovered just how bad the situation was. Key areas of the codebase were locked, and there were no separate environments for development and production. Every fix seemed to break something else. But through sheer determination and countless 18-hour days, Horane stabilized the platform. Today, Chatter is far from perfect, but it’s stable. The bugs that plagued us have been reduced to moderate issues, and our core users—those who stuck with us through the chaos—are still engaged on the platform. Looking Ahead: Chatter V2 While the platform is stable now, we’ve shifted our focus to Chatter V2. This is where the magic really begins. V2 isn’t just an improvement; it’s a complete reimagining of the platform. It includes all the features we couldn’t release in V1 because we were too busy putting out fires. Imagine this: Chatter V1, with only one live feature, was incredibly sticky. Now think about what happens when we release a fully loaded platform with all the innovative features we’ve been working on behind the scenes. The possibilities are endless. V2 is slated to hit TestFlight by the end of December, with a public release in January 2025. And this time, we’re ready—not just with the product but with the lessons we’ve learned. The Hard Lessons This journey has taught me more than I ever thought possible: 1) Your Team is Everything: The right people can make or break your vision. Finding people who believe in your mission is just as important as finding people with the right skills. 2) Adaptability is Key: As a non-technical founder, I had to learn about development, DevOps, and product management on the fly. Challenges will push you to grow, whether you’re ready or not. 3) Trust the Process: Every setback, every delay, every bug—it all taught us something. Without those lessons, we wouldn’t be building the incredible V2 product we are today. 4) Resilience is Non-Negotiable: From technical disasters to predatory investors who tried to exploit my desperation, I’ve had to fight for this vision every step of the way. What’s Next December is shaping up to be an exciting month. We have some amazing events planned on the platform to close out the year, bringing our core community together as we prepare for the V2 launch. When V2 drops, it will mark a new era for Chatter. This isn’t just a social audio platform or a social audiovisual platform. Chatter is all about interactive experiences—making social media social again in ways that are truly unique. The public launch is slated for February 2025, and for the first time, we’ll have the marketing dollars to tell the world about Chatter. Our core community has been our biggest cheerleaders, and I can’t wait to see how the world reacts when they experience what we’ve built. Final Thoughts This has been the hardest year of my life, but also the most rewarding. To other founders, or anyone thinking about starting a company: know this—it will test you in ways you can’t imagine. You’ll face betrayal, doubt, and moments where you feel like giving up. But if you believe in your vision and refuse to quit, you’ll find a way forward. Thank you to everyone who has supported me, my team, and Chatter. We’re just getting started. Let’s talk about it. 🚀 If this story inspired you, please like and share it so others can learn from my experiences. The journey is far from over, but I’m more excited than ever for what’s to come.

From Creator to Founder: The Rollercoaster Journey of Building Chatter Social Man, what a journey it’s been so far. Four years ago, I was just another creator, spending late nights on Clubhouse during the height of the pandemic. Like so many others, I was searching for connection, for community, for something meaningful. But what I found there wasn’t just connection—it was purpose. Alongside my brother, Jonathan Bing, we built a nightly show that reached over 5 million people. Imagine that: 5 million lives touched by conversations that felt real and unfiltered, all on a platform that at its peak had 10 million monthly active users. Clubhouse was magic. But then the decline began. Watching the platform struggle, I couldn’t help but reflect: what made it great? What went wrong? And what could the future look like if we did things differently? The Spark of Chatter As a content creator, I understood the needs of both creators and users. I knew what excited people, what kept them engaged, and what made them leave. Clubhouse had tapped into something special, but it had missed the mark on scalability and sustainability. By September 2023, I couldn’t stop thinking about the potential for something new—something that brought back the magic of real-time interaction but made it scalable, engaging, and sticky. And so, I set out to build Chatter Social. But I wasn’t a tech founder. I didn’t have a background in software development or a network of Silicon Valley insiders. What I did have was determination and the belief that if I could bring the right people together, we could build something extraordinary. Building the Team The journey to build Chatter started with assembling a team. Through my network from my days on Clubhouse, I found Samir, my first CTO. He believed in the vision and was instrumental in getting the project off the ground. Shortly after, I connected with Tyler, our Head of Design, whose creativity brought life to our ideas. A developer joined us soon after, and we were off to the races. By the end of 2023, Samir had to step away due to other commitments, and we promoted the developer to CTO. At the same time, I brought on Banko, a Sony music executive, as our CMO. Banko’s connections led to one of our biggest early wins: landing Davido, a global superstar, as an owner-ambassador. To this day, I still marvel at the fact that Davido believed in our vision when all we had were Tyler’s Figma designs. From Dream to Reality Early 2024 was a whirlwind. We hired Yurii and Vasyl, two developers from Ukraine who brought incredible skill and dedication to the team. Vasyl, in particular, stood out as a leader and has since earned an equity position in the company. But despite these wins, we were facing growing pains. Our new CTO struggled to meet deadlines, and as a result, I found myself constantly pushing back the launch date. What started as a January release turned into February, then March, then April, then May. By then, people on Twitter Spaces—where I had been hyping up the platform—started doubting if we even had a product. Launch and Lessons June 1, 2024, marked a turning point. It was the day my son Noah was born and the day we launched Chatter in private beta. We started with just 40 users, but by the end of the month, we had grown to 1,000. The engagement was unbelievable. Users loved it, even though we had launched with just one feature: live rooms. This represented less than 20% of what we had planned, but it was enough to show that we were onto something big. In July, we launched our public beta on the App Store as an invite-only platform. Within 48 hours, Chatter ranked as a top 30 social app in over 30 countries. But our invite system throttled access, and most users couldn’t get in. While engagement metrics soared for those inside, our AWS costs exploded. In August, our AWS bill hit $10,000. By September, it had climbed to $15,000, and we were drowning in bugs and glitches. The breaking point came when our CTO became unresponsive, often disappearing during critical moments. Users were dropping off, frustrated by the issues, developers were confused and the team was also growing increasingly frustrated, I made the tough decision to let him go. A New Beginning Enter Horane, a long-time user of Chatter who had been with us since private beta. He was the first to discover some of the most innovative use cases for the platform and had a deep passion for its potential. After meeting him in person at a Chatter event, I knew he was the right person to step into the CTO role. When Horane took over, we discovered just how bad the situation was. Key areas of the codebase were locked, and there were no separate environments for development and production. Every fix seemed to break something else. But through sheer determination and countless 18-hour days, Horane stabilized the platform. Today, Chatter is far from perfect, but it’s stable. The bugs that plagued us have been reduced to moderate issues, and our core users—those who stuck with us through the chaos—are still engaged on the platform. Looking Ahead: Chatter V2 While the platform is stable now, we’ve shifted our focus to Chatter V2. This is where the magic really begins. V2 isn’t just an improvement; it’s a complete reimagining of the platform. It includes all the features we couldn’t release in V1 because we were too busy putting out fires. Imagine this: Chatter V1, with only one live feature, was incredibly sticky. Now think about what happens when we release a fully loaded platform with all the innovative features we’ve been working on behind the scenes. The possibilities are endless. V2 is slated to hit TestFlight by the end of December, with a public release in January 2025. And this time, we’re ready—not just with the product but with the lessons we’ve learned. The Hard Lessons This journey has taught me more than I ever thought possible: 1) Your Team is Everything: The right people can make or break your vision. Finding people who believe in your mission is just as important as finding people with the right skills. 2) Adaptability is Key: As a non-technical founder, I had to learn about development, DevOps, and product management on the fly. Challenges will push you to grow, whether you’re ready or not. 3) Trust the Process: Every setback, every delay, every bug—it all taught us something. Without those lessons, we wouldn’t be building the incredible V2 product we are today. 4) Resilience is Non-Negotiable: From technical disasters to predatory investors who tried to exploit my desperation, I’ve had to fight for this vision every step of the way. What’s Next December is shaping up to be an exciting month. We have some amazing events planned on the platform to close out the year, bringing our core community together as we prepare for the V2 launch. When V2 drops, it will mark a new era for Chatter. This isn’t just a social audio platform or a social audiovisual platform. Chatter is all about interactive experiences—making social media social again in ways that are truly unique. The public launch is slated for February 2025, and for the first time, we’ll have the marketing dollars to tell the world about Chatter. Our core community has been our biggest cheerleaders, and I can’t wait to see how the world reacts when they experience what we’ve built. Final Thoughts This has been the hardest year of my life, but also the most rewarding. To other founders, or anyone thinking about starting a company: know this—it will test you in ways you can’t imagine. You’ll face betrayal, doubt, and moments where you feel like giving up. But if you believe in your vision and refuse to quit, you’ll find a way forward. Thank you to everyone who has supported me, my team, and Chatter. We’re just getting started. Let’s talk about it. 🚀 If this story inspired you, please like and share it so others can learn from my experiences. The journey is far from over, but I’m more excited than ever for what’s to come.

Nelson Epega

43,485 次观看 • 1 年前