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Former BlackRock Manager: "The Recession Has Already Started" w/ Edward Dowd & Mark Moss 0:00 — Episode Trailer 00:49 — Has the recession already started? 03:59 — The 3 biggest risks: AI, housing & China 07:21 — Is AI really in a bubble? 12:02 — Secure Your Bitcoin with...

12,871 views • 19 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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New Journey Man episode with my dear friend Alex Gurevich—please enjoy! 00:00 – Welcome to The Journeyman 01:12 – Meet Alex Gurevich 02:08 – Alex’s Macro Framework 04:47 – Five Key Forces Driving Markets 07:00 – Rate Cuts & Central Bank Cycles 08:18 – Fiscal Dominance & Inflation Risks 09:37 – Demographics and Deflation 10:07 – Geopolitics and Trade Shifts 12:32 – The Rise of the Singularity 14:05 – Why Rates Remain Sticky 16:17 – Tariffs and the Bond Market 18:03 – Basel, Regulation & Forced Buying 20:26 – Stocks, Bonds & Mispriced Narratives 22:45 – Why Crises Always End in Liquidity 25:15 – 2022’s Puzzle: Real Rates & Liquidity 27:08 – Will the Fed Cut Soon? 28:37 – Favorite Macro Trades 30:25 – Currency Plays: Yen & Yuan 32:18 – Gold, Silver & Hard Assets 35:16 – Patience in Commodities 36:08 – Bitcoin, Crypto & Long-Term Views 37:00 – Copper & Industrial Demand 38:14 – Bearish on Equities… For Now 41:03 – Crises Create Opportunity 43:01 – The Buy-the-Dip Mindset 44:48 – The AI Singularity is Here 47:11 – Kurzweil Was Right 49:21 – End of the Exponential Age 51:14 – Energy as the True Constraint 55:15 – Can AI Solve Its Energy Crisis? 58:15 – Kardashev Scale & Solar Limits 01:02:37 – What Happens to the Economy? 01:04:34 – UBI and the End of Work 01:06:53 – Energy as the New Macro Constraint 01:07:29 – Why 2030 Could Be a Turning Point 01:10:12 – Can AI Run a Macro Fund? 01:14:29 – A Future Dominated by AGI 01:16:13 – This Changes Everything 01:18:44 – Final Thoughts & Takeaways

Raoul Pal

136,948 views • 1 year ago

tylercowen is bullish on AI education — here's why. 00:00 -- Preview 00:24 -- President Carlos Carvalho's AI-generated intro 03:21 -- Cowen reacts to UATX's campus 04:38 -- The AI revolution is here. Who will lose the most? 06:05 -- AI lawyers 07:17 -- Don't underestimate this 10:41 -- Changes to the "upper upper middle class" 12:38 -- How to be successful 13:43 -- The rise of managerial empires 14:02 -- When will we have the first billion dollar company with one employee? 16:05 -- 10-20 year forecast 16:19 -- Why education is so behind 17:01 -- Should you be bullish on UATX? 18:36 -- Should you still read Homer? 21:50 -- Write to think 25:01 -- Meet more people 25:42 -- How to get hired 26:54 -- Is AI your best mentor? 38:17 -- How to curb cheating 39:02 -- The new life of the mind 42:34 -- Q&A: Will there be more status associated with real education or AI education? 45:50 -- Q&A: Why do tech-savvy students need to practice using AI? 47:56 -- Q&A: Do LLMs atrophy your mind? 49:29 -- Q&A: How do you avoid AI-dependency? 51:05 -- Q&A: Isn't this vision lonely and isolating? 53:06 -- Q&A: Do students need teachers? 55:36 -- Q&A: What are the four most important courses for undergrads? 57:49 -- Q&A: Which AI company will win the AI race in the next five years and why? 59:22 -- Q&A: Can AI teach religion? 01:01:32 -- Q&A: Will AI narrow or widen our world? 01:04:37 -- Q&A: What makes us human? 01:05:42 -- Q&A: What is art? 01:08:33 -- Q&A: It's easy to catch cheaters

University of Austin (UATX)

27,770 views • 6 months ago

Another mindblowing conversation with my good friend .Emad... Enjoy!! 00:00 - Introduction 00:22 - AI: The Biggest Shift in Human History 00:42 - AI’s Impact on Society and the Economy 01:03 - Conversation with Emad Mostaque Begins 01:50 - The Acceleration of AI and Economic Takeoff 03:07 - AI Intelligence: Beyond Human IQ 04:08 - The Rise of AI Chefs and Super Cooks 05:07 - Breaking AI Constraints: Compute and Energy 07:03 - The Future of AI: Ubiquitous Intelligence 08:04 - The Shift to Local AI Models 10:07 - Why Has Apple Lagged in AI? 11:21 - The AI Race: OpenAI, Grok, Gemini, and More 13:11 - China’s Open-Source AI Strategy 14:57 - AI Bias and Ethical Challenges 16:57 - AI’s Cross-Pollination and Memory 18:02 - Are AI Models Becoming Self-Aware? 19:16 - AI, Bitcoin, and Self-Sustaining Algorithms 21:26 - AI-Driven Economies and Autonomous Companies 23:41 - The Future of Labor: A World Without Jobs? 25:26 - AI-Powered Robots: The Next Workforce Revolution 27:28 - The End of Traditional Economic Models 30:27 - The Political Shift: Humanist vs. Transhumanist 33:04 - AI in Financial Markets: The End of Human Traders? 36:03 - The Evolution of Investing in an AI World 38:33 - AI’s Impact on Capital Formation and Business Disruption 40:01 - The Rise of Digital Twins and Post-Capital Society 42:45 - Building AI for Education, Healthcare, and Governance 46:42 - The Future of Money in an AI-Driven World 50:11 - Universal Basic AI: A New Economic Model 54:29 - The Deflationary Impact of AI and Crypto’s Role 57:02 - The AI Singularity: Five Years Until Everything Changes 58:56 - The Road Ahead: AI, Crypto, and the Future of Civilization 01:02:24 - Final Thoughts: The Most Exciting and Terrifying Time in History

Raoul Pal

326,827 views • 1 year ago

Bitcoin Mining Death Spiral, AGI, and the End of Central Banking w/ Rich Rines Rich joins Robert ₿reedlove to explore whether mining concentration is a real concern, why Ethereum struggles with product market fit, and if Bitcoin is the separate of money from state. 0:00 - WiM Episode Trailer 1:13 - Bitcoin vs Sh*tcoin (Decentralization) 5:30 - Is Mining Concentration a Concern? 17:15 - iCoin Bitcoin Wallet 18:44 - Cowbolt: Settle in Bitcoin 19:59 - Bitcoin and Turing Completeness 25:40 - Ethereum’s Product Market Fit 34:14 - Heart and Soil Supplements 35:14 - Mine Bitcoin with Blockware Solutions 36:16 - Tether and the Lightning Network 49:54 - The Future of Central Banking on a Bitcoin Standard 55:17 - Helping Lightning Startups with In Wolf’s Clothing 56:09 - Onramp Bitcoin Custody 58:06 - The Future of Banking on a Bitcoin Standard 1:03:21 - Will Government Become Irrelevant? 1:07:22 - Working at Coinbase 1:21:42 - Mind Lab Pro Supplements 1:22:53 - Buy Bitcoin with Coinbits 1:24:21 - Money, Language, and Religion 1:33:24 - Coinbase and the Ethics of Sh*tcoins 1:39:15 - Are Cryptos Just Unregistered Securities? 1:43:50 - Is Bitcoin the Separation of Money and State? 1:47:55 - Will AI Shrink Government? 1:53:12 - Will AI and Bitcoin Bring UBI? 2:01:02 - The Farm at Okefenokee 2:02:12 - Orange Pill App 2:02:40 - How Far Off is AGI? 2:10:53 - Closed vs Open Source AI 2:12:08 - Will Everyone Become a Software Engineer? 2:19:53 - Closing Thoughts and Where to Find Rich Rines

The "What is Money?" Show

31,276 views • 11 months ago