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Friday August 7, 2026, 8:06 AM: An embedded easterly wave component has brought some short-lived, brief heavy rainfall near Encinitas between Solana Beach and proper this morning. This is the first measurable rain of the summer in a very isolated area along the coast, accompanied by a clap of...

33,832 görüntüleme • 8 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Wednesday, April 3, 2024, 5:42 PM PDT: All systems are a go for a cold and unseasonable Gulf of Alaskan April storm. Strong thunderstorms have already developed near Redding, California, and a series of embedded impulses are rotating around the main low axis off the coast of Humboldt County this afternoon. This storm system will undergo a brief 12 to 24-hour intensification process before hitting San Francisco, Santa Rosa, and Sacramento late Thursday afternoon. It will bring isolated strong to severe thunderstorm conditions. A large surface cold front will develop late Friday morning as the low axis trajectory slides down the coast towards Pismo Beach, California by Friday at dawn. Severe Weather Risk In Central And Southern California on Friday. The atmospheric conditions will become increasingly unstable, giving way to thunderstorms from central California to San Diego. The cold pool of air aloft, at minus 28 Celsius above 25,000FT, will create volatile weather conditions with the possibility of pea-sized hail and brief heavy rainfall in some areas. The air mass will be very cold, supporting a dusting of snow near the Grapevine and Cajon Pass. Temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s, and the 30s near the mountains by Friday midday. As snow levels have been trending downward and hit rock bottom, there may be some isolated areas at 2,000-foot elevation along the San Gabriel’s and parts of the San Bernardino mountains that could see a dusting of snow. Even some dusting of snow in the high desert cannot be ruled out. There is a high confidence of elevated water spouts developing from San Luis Obispo to San Diego coastal zones, especially since one of the embedded disturbances will arrive on Friday from 11 AM to 7 PM. This is also the best opportunity for ample early April sun angle, which will give way to stronger convection across our region. I'm closely monitoring this developing situation in the next 24 hours. #Californiastorms #ElNiño #April2024

Jason D Farhang

23,214 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

As anticipated, a mesoscale #vortex developed along the East–West monsoon #ShearZone near the #Palghar–#Manor region, significantly enhancing the local monsoon dynamics. 🌧️ The strengthening of this vortex resulted in a sharp pressure fall over the #Mumbai region, with mean sea-level pressure dropping to around 997 hPa. Simultaneously, strong convective winds accompanied the system, with wind gusts of up to 80 km/h reported at #CSMIA, according to #METAR observations around **10:30 AM. From a #rainfall perspective, precipitation associated with such vortices is always challenging to forecast because the heaviest rainfall often becomes highly localized and depends on the exact position and movement of the circulation. Nevertheless, as indicated in the earlier outlook, there was potential for 300 mm-plus rainfall where the vortex became anchored, and that scenario has now materialized. The most intense rainfall overnight was concentrated over the southern quadrant of Mumbai, parts of North #Raigad district, particularly #Panvel, #Khalapur, #Matheran, #Karjat, and the adjoining #Sahyadri Ghat sections, including #Khandala to #Tamhini, where extremely heavy rainfall was recorded. Following the passage of the most intense phase, rainfall has reduced to intermittent drizzle across many areas, accompanied by breezy conditions as the vortex gradually weakens. Looking ahead, #atmospheric conditions remain favourable for heavy rainfall until 7 July, with Raigad district and Mumbai currently appearing best placed for further significant rainfall. Thereafter, rainfall prospects over #Thane and Palghar districts will depend largely on the future movement and positioning of the monsoon shear zone. If the primary vortex-induced event has already peaked, these regions are likely to continue receiving generally heavy rainfall upto 250 mm may be if any, although the probability of another widespread 300 mm-plus event may reduce unless a fresh mesoscale circulation develops. #WeatherAnalysis #WeatherUpdate #KonkanWeather #Maharashtra #July #SWM2026 #Monsoon2026 #MumbaiRains

Abhijit Modak (कोकण हवामान)🌞🌦️⛈️

36,679 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day feature the most impressive severe thunderstorm setup I’ve seen along the California coastline in at least a decade. The first round of isolated severe thunderstorms will come ashore tonight, bringing the threat of a isolated tornado and severe wind gusts over 60 mph from the Central Coast up to Humboldt County. The severe weather threat then expands into the Central Valley during the afternoon, California’s tornado alley, with the potential for isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and even large hail. The threat then shifts south into Southern California tomorrow, where isolated severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible. However, Christmas Eve into Christmas morning features the most potent severe weather environment of the week and could lead to a severe thunderstorm outbreak along the coastline from the Central Coast up to the North Coast. The combination of strong low-level and deep-layer shear with sufficient instability is rarely seen in this part of the world. I seriously cannot recall seeing Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) values exceed 3 along the California coastline. The peak threat window appears to be from 10 PM Thursday to 8 AM Friday. It would not be out of the question to see a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued Christmas Eve night with the potential for a couple tornadoes and scattered severe wind gusts. I also believe this may be the first time on record that San Francisco has been placed under a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms in the Day 1–3 NWS Storm Prediction Center Convective Outlooks.

Colin McCarthy

68,544 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce