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From DC: david friedberg on what causes gov't inefficiency "Every org has a fundamental incentive to grow." "The answer is always more people and budget." "Then you end up seeing all of these things that don't map to the mission."

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50,775 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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bread 🥪1 year ago

@friedberg anything not tethered to performance metrics or outcomes will get bogged down by glut and degradation overtime

California Insider Show1 year ago

California has the nation’s highest housing costs. Some blame a housing shortage; others, government policies. We sit down with experts to explore what’s driving costs and discuss the state-mandated Housing Development initiative and why some cities push back.

Yossi Farro1 year ago

@friedberg I'm going to wrap Tefflin with @friedberg!

ADAM1 year ago

@friedberg definitely the next tech titans won't employe 50k+ people. something else is slowly forming

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The Wolf Of All Streets

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15,950 views • 4 months ago

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"I think the whole looksmaxxing phenomenon is really, really dangerous and foolish, especially for people younger than 40." - Andrew D. Huberman, Ph.D. "If you're a guy taking pictures of your abs and posting them online, you need to invest money in a psychologist, not in peptides." "We're hearing more and more about young guys who think they've got to take TRT. Never in a million years would I suggest anyone do that in their 20s or 30s unless they have a serious issue." "There's the risk that if you're augmenting growth hormone in your teens or your 20s, you can really mess up your hypothalamic-pituitary axis, all the organs of your body, in major ways. You can shut down fertility. If you come off these things, you may revert to a state of depression." "Then you're the person in your 40s and 50s who looks much older. This is the thing people don't realize: there's always a dynamic tension between the things that give you vitality and the things that extend your life. If you take growth hormone, you'll feel more vital, you'll gain muscle more easily, and recover from injury more easily. Guess what? You'll also age more quickly."

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Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

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Friedberg: DC Elites Must Take DOGE More Seriously david friedberg on E217: "You hear Elon Musk talking to all the members of the cabinet and he's pretty clear cut, like, 'Hey, we've got to save this government, it's in a debt spiral, we have to fix this problem.'" "And then it's sort of like business as usual." "When we were in DC, that was exactly my observation for every senator, representative, member of Congress that we met with or that I talked to at a cocktail party, it was the same bulls**t." "It was like, 'I got to get this for my people.'" "And we've turned this Federated Republic into a whole bunch of elected representatives showing up in DC, scrambling and grabbing money for their constituents." "And it's a really unfortunate circumstance that no one looks out for the better interest of the US dollar over time and says, 'You know what, we've actually got a limitation on us, and that limitation should be less than 3% deficit to GDP. That's our budget. That's our max budget.' And start from there, and then do a buildup."

Friedberg: DC Elites Must Take DOGE More Seriously david friedberg on E217: "You hear Elon Musk talking to all the members of the cabinet and he's pretty clear cut, like, 'Hey, we've got to save this government, it's in a debt spiral, we have to fix this problem.'" "And then it's sort of like business as usual." "When we were in DC, that was exactly my observation for every senator, representative, member of Congress that we met with or that I talked to at a cocktail party, it was the same bulls**t." "It was like, 'I got to get this for my people.'" "And we've turned this Federated Republic into a whole bunch of elected representatives showing up in DC, scrambling and grabbing money for their constituents." "And it's a really unfortunate circumstance that no one looks out for the better interest of the US dollar over time and says, 'You know what, we've actually got a limitation on us, and that limitation should be less than 3% deficit to GDP. That's our budget. That's our max budget.' And start from there, and then do a buildup."

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96,728 views • 1 year ago

"We have to be in the arena. We have to preserve, replicate, and scale this very precious trade skill (that is manufacturing, working with machines, etc.)." From Aaron Slodov on reindustrialization: "There's AI and automation. We don't necessarily need to go back to these dirty, dark, dangerous jobs." "People have a challenging time asking if we should make T-shirts and toasters in America, but these are the feeder industries that grant you the ability to do all these other things."

"We have to be in the arena. We have to preserve, replicate, and scale this very precious trade skill (that is manufacturing, working with machines, etc.)." From Aaron Slodov on reindustrialization: "There's AI and automation. We don't necessarily need to go back to these dirty, dark, dangerous jobs." "People have a challenging time asking if we should make T-shirts and toasters in America, but these are the feeder industries that grant you the ability to do all these other things."

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.Keith Rabois: Most companies hire ammunition when they really need barrels. "Most companies raise money, and then they hire a lot of people. And then the CEO, almost without exception, gets frustrated because they've hired a lot of people, their burn rate has increased, and they don't feel like more is getting accomplished per unit of time. The fundamental driver of this is the number of people that can independently drive an initiative from inception to success is very limited within most companies. If you hire more people without expanding the number of what I call 'barrels,' that can drive ideas from inception to success, all you're doing is stacking people behind the same initiatives." The ratio of barrels to ammunition is what determines the number of important things a company can pursue simultaneously.

.Keith Rabois: Most companies hire ammunition when they really need barrels. "Most companies raise money, and then they hire a lot of people. And then the CEO, almost without exception, gets frustrated because they've hired a lot of people, their burn rate has increased, and they don't feel like more is getting accomplished per unit of time. The fundamental driver of this is the number of people that can independently drive an initiative from inception to success is very limited within most companies. If you hire more people without expanding the number of what I call 'barrels,' that can drive ideas from inception to success, all you're doing is stacking people behind the same initiatives." The ratio of barrels to ammunition is what determines the number of important things a company can pursue simultaneously.

Lenny Rachitsky

70,576 views • 3 months ago

"People think that [pharma using AI] is going to a prompt and saying, 'Cure cancer.' It's not." — John Coogan "It's like: you have a 10,000-page document that you need to send to the FDA, and if there's a misplaced comma, they can just send it back to you. Now you're at the back of the queue." "I was working on FDA filings 4-5 years ago, and there were so many Word documents. It was the same application for multiple variations of the product that the FDA was going to review. So we actually wrote Python scripts to programmatically interact with the Word documents to basically do a very advanced version of find and replace." "That's perfect for AI. It just speeds things up a little bit. You submit a week earlier, you can submit more things, more variations. You can give more information, compile more information, investigate other literature, do deep research reports — 'What else is out there? Let's review all the IP faster' — summarize things, find different threads to pull on." "Little things like that just squeak out an extra 5 minutes here, an extra day there, and it all adds up to 'acceleration and progress.' It's not like, overnight, all of a sudden everything's changed."

"People think that [pharma using AI] is going to a prompt and saying, 'Cure cancer.' It's not." — John Coogan "It's like: you have a 10,000-page document that you need to send to the FDA, and if there's a misplaced comma, they can just send it back to you. Now you're at the back of the queue." "I was working on FDA filings 4-5 years ago, and there were so many Word documents. It was the same application for multiple variations of the product that the FDA was going to review. So we actually wrote Python scripts to programmatically interact with the Word documents to basically do a very advanced version of find and replace." "That's perfect for AI. It just speeds things up a little bit. You submit a week earlier, you can submit more things, more variations. You can give more information, compile more information, investigate other literature, do deep research reports — 'What else is out there? Let's review all the IP faster' — summarize things, find different threads to pull on." "Little things like that just squeak out an extra 5 minutes here, an extra day there, and it all adds up to 'acceleration and progress.' It's not like, overnight, all of a sudden everything's changed."

TBPN

52,922 views • 4 months ago

Amplitude CEO Spenser Skates says the SaaSpocalypse is real, and your old moat is dead. The only moat now is speed of innovation: "You have to be pushing the bleeding edge of what capabilities are. If you create a company that can do that, that's what customers will buy." "What the SaaSpocalypse has gotten right is - if you look at the median SaaS company, their innovation has actually slowed to a standstill." "It's crazy how little they ship in terms of net new products." "Speed of using the bleeding edge of these model capabilities is all that matters. You're even seeing it in the foundational model companies. Opus was the hottest thing a week ago, then it Codex literally launched the same day, saying, 'We're even better, and we're faster and we're on Cerebras chips.' I think all that matters is the rate of improvement." "It's like sushi. Buyers are always going to want the best thing. So if you're keeping up with innovating the best thing, you will be able to charge a premium. It's fine that the 7/11 gas station now sells sushi. It's not going to put Jiro in Japan out of business." "The lesson is - there is no moat anymore from what we've built. There's only a moat if we're able to deliver the most bleeding edge capability."

Amplitude CEO Spenser Skates says the SaaSpocalypse is real, and your old moat is dead. The only moat now is speed of innovation: "You have to be pushing the bleeding edge of what capabilities are. If you create a company that can do that, that's what customers will buy." "What the SaaSpocalypse has gotten right is - if you look at the median SaaS company, their innovation has actually slowed to a standstill." "It's crazy how little they ship in terms of net new products." "Speed of using the bleeding edge of these model capabilities is all that matters. You're even seeing it in the foundational model companies. Opus was the hottest thing a week ago, then it Codex literally launched the same day, saying, 'We're even better, and we're faster and we're on Cerebras chips.' I think all that matters is the rate of improvement." "It's like sushi. Buyers are always going to want the best thing. So if you're keeping up with innovating the best thing, you will be able to charge a premium. It's fine that the 7/11 gas station now sells sushi. It's not going to put Jiro in Japan out of business." "The lesson is - there is no moat anymore from what we've built. There's only a moat if we're able to deliver the most bleeding edge capability."

TBPN

95,450 views • 5 months ago

Lightspeed partner Bucky Moore says early stage investing has gone from getting 15-20% in seed rounds to investing in a basket of companies from seed to Series A, and ending up with ownership in the low teens: "Right now I think early stage is in this tricky place, where for a seed round, you're generally getting around 10% ownership for the most competitive rounds." "As a result, if you go back to what kind of made the early stage model work, it was owning somewhere between 15-20% of companies that become really valuable." "So the way you have to play this now, as a multi-stage firm, is you get the 10% in the seed, then you effectively have to be in a position to buy up in the Series A. But at the same time, the Series As are also ballooning in price, and there's really not a lot of de-risking because the velocity is so fast compared to even a couple years ago." "So right now what you see a lot is: you get 10% in the seed, the Series A happens somewhere between like 150 and in some cases 300 post, and then you end up trying to lead or co-lead that, and then you end up in the low- to mid-teens." "It's just a different time, but that's what it takes nowadays...I think what that means is you're building a basket of companies that tend to be in that low- to mid-teens ownership more often than not."

Lightspeed partner Bucky Moore says early stage investing has gone from getting 15-20% in seed rounds to investing in a basket of companies from seed to Series A, and ending up with ownership in the low teens: "Right now I think early stage is in this tricky place, where for a seed round, you're generally getting around 10% ownership for the most competitive rounds." "As a result, if you go back to what kind of made the early stage model work, it was owning somewhere between 15-20% of companies that become really valuable." "So the way you have to play this now, as a multi-stage firm, is you get the 10% in the seed, then you effectively have to be in a position to buy up in the Series A. But at the same time, the Series As are also ballooning in price, and there's really not a lot of de-risking because the velocity is so fast compared to even a couple years ago." "So right now what you see a lot is: you get 10% in the seed, the Series A happens somewhere between like 150 and in some cases 300 post, and then you end up trying to lead or co-lead that, and then you end up in the low- to mid-teens." "It's just a different time, but that's what it takes nowadays...I think what that means is you're building a basket of companies that tend to be in that low- to mid-teens ownership more often than not."

TBPN

28,686 views • 4 months ago

.carried_no_interest says the rumors that enterprise customers are no longer signing up for 3-year contracts — combined with "adjacency in the market map" — is way more of a threat to software private equity than vibe coding: "The entire basis of software PE being one of the best private market categories was that you had enterprise customers with 3-year contracts." "If every other enterprise customer says, 'AI is just so amazing now, and we don't know where we're going to be, and what it's going to look like, so we're only doing 1-year deals,' that has much bigger implications than someone vibecoding a Notion clone on a Sunday. That's a big deal." "And I think the reason they're doing that — and this is the bigger threat to a lot of these companies — is the adjacency in the market map." "If you look like Rippling, and you have a very talented group of people like their employees, they can attack so many parts of the HR platform space now that they simply couldn't 3 years ago." "That's a lot scarier than vibe coding, than somebody just whipping up [a clone] and going out with a bunch of cold emails. It's the adjacency threats in the market map. Because now, who's Rippling going to go after?"

.carried_no_interest says the rumors that enterprise customers are no longer signing up for 3-year contracts — combined with "adjacency in the market map" — is way more of a threat to software private equity than vibe coding: "The entire basis of software PE being one of the best private market categories was that you had enterprise customers with 3-year contracts." "If every other enterprise customer says, 'AI is just so amazing now, and we don't know where we're going to be, and what it's going to look like, so we're only doing 1-year deals,' that has much bigger implications than someone vibecoding a Notion clone on a Sunday. That's a big deal." "And I think the reason they're doing that — and this is the bigger threat to a lot of these companies — is the adjacency in the market map." "If you look like Rippling, and you have a very talented group of people like their employees, they can attack so many parts of the HR platform space now that they simply couldn't 3 years ago." "That's a lot scarier than vibe coding, than somebody just whipping up [a clone] and going out with a bunch of cold emails. It's the adjacency threats in the market map. Because now, who's Rippling going to go after?"

TBPN

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SaltyGoat

309,157 views • 9 months ago