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🚨 FSD Is Still a Long Way From Becoming a Commodity! Jo Bhakdi thinks people are getting way ahead of themselves when they say self-driving tech will eventually become interchangeable. If autonomy were that easy to copy, we’d probably have a lot more Teslas and Waymos by now. And... Tesla doesn’t necessarily need Uber to scale Robotaxi. Users can come from platforms like X, while fleet operations could be handled by other partners. Even if AGI makes autonomy easier to solve, putting that intelligence into millions of cars and getting regulatory approval is a whole different challenge. Tesla’s biggest autonomy risk might not be someone catching up. It might simply be how long scaling takes. $TSLAshow more

Herbert Ong

104,273 subscribers

10,837 просмотров • 2 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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Комментарии: 11

Фото профиля 1/100,000th

1/100,000th1 день назад

@JOBhakdi the irony the longer it takes Tesla to roll out, the larger the moat, and the more valuable Tesla is

Фото профиля hybridcarguy

hybridcarguy1 день назад

@JOBhakdi Funny how you guys go on and on about this whole thing while robotaxis are at the science experiment stage with 0 guidance, 0 timeline, 0 revenue… Get real!

Фото профиля 💧🌞John Troughton

💧🌞John Troughton1 день назад

@JOBhakdi FSD will be milked for all it’s worth. Huge money to be made

Фото профиля 축복ㆍ시방時方

축복ㆍ시방時方2 дней назад

@JOBhakdi 사이버캡

Фото профиля Rob Nichols

Rob Nichols2 дней назад

@JOBhakdi What happens if Tesla licenses the technology to other car companies?

Фото профиля William Johnson

William Johnson2 дней назад

@JOBhakdi Barry Glack and Co. are either too dense to see, or....they actually do see and us FSD users and Tesla's FSD creators are all insane. Nothing we experience is real. AND if it was real, there is a magic "Catch up to Tesla" button available.......NOT! Tesla has a 10 year lead here!

Фото профиля TheNextAlan

TheNextAlan1 день назад

@JOBhakdi AI cannot overcome the Tesla moat because they lack the training data. AI only knows what it has been trained on. Tesla's 14 billion miles of video is proprietary. Anthropic and OpenAI cannot invent it out of thin air.

Фото профиля Jason Scott

Jason Scott1 день назад

@JOBhakdi That fact that Tesla is in the market makes someone else developing autonomous driving much less likely. The reward to doing it has dropped significantly. Before you competed with Uber, now you have to compete with Tesla and an 18k + 6 miles / KWh Cybercab.

Фото профиля TT

TT2 дней назад

@JOBhakdi Exactly—autonomy is nowhere near interchangeable. You and @fotsguy are two stock accounts I always follow.

Фото профиля Jose Belarmino

Jose Belarmino1 день назад

@JOBhakdi The only way AGI goes from the digital to real world driving is if it takes a robot (ie like Optimus), uploads the AI driving software on to the robot’s neural nets, then the robot sits on a car and drives that car. There is no way an AI company can put up an AV car factory.

Фото профиля ElectricAdventures

ElectricAdventures2 дней назад

@JOBhakdi The longer it takes, the easier the AI path becomes. I’m impressed with what XPeng, WeRide and many other companies are achieving.

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Tesla taking its time with FSD might actually be the smarter move! FutureAzA thinks Tesla is under so much scrutiny that even one bad Robotaxi incident could become a huge story. So instead of rushing thousands of cars onto the road, get the safety right first, then scale! And once that happens, the real selling point might be pretty simple: price. If Robotaxi is safe, easy to get, and eventually cheaper than owning a car, people won’t need much convincing. You don’t have to love Tesla or Elon to use it. If it saves you money and gets you where you need to go, that might be enough. 💯 $TSLA

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🚨 Tesla’s Cybercab rollout might be turning into a regulatory fight just as much as a tech race. Jo Bhakdi thinks NHTSA’s proposed rule could move forward around year-end, potentially giving Tesla a clearer path to scale Cybercab. And he doesn’t think the timing of Tesla’s launch was random. His theory is Tesla waited until the public comment period closed before making its bigger move, knowing competitors would push back hard. Jo expects Waymo and Uber to fight this, especially if Tesla gets a path to scale beyond a 2,500-car limit. Building Cybercab is one thing. Getting the rules that let Tesla deploy it at massive scale could be the real battle now. $TSLA

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ELON CLIPS

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Elon Musk: Tesla has no need to buy Uber. “There's no need [to buy Uber] because we have millions of cars that will be able to operate autonomously. And I should say that it's a combination of a Tesla-owned fleet and also enabling Tesla owners to be able to add or subtract their car to the fleet so that existing Tesla owners will be able to earn money by adding their car to the fleet for autonomous use. I think it's maybe possible for Tesla owners to make more in allowing the car to be added to the self-driving fleet then they cost them in the lease. And that's why I'd consider it sort of a business model that's similar to some combination of Airbnb and Uber. Just like Airbnb, you can rent out your spare bedroom or your house if you're not using it and make money on it. And that's what we expect Tesla customers to be able to do.” Interview with David Faber, May 20, 2025 Made and published via

ELON CLIPS

440,639 просмотров • 1 год назад

Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Biggest warning I’ll give Tesla shorts right now. This time, you’re probably not going to get fucked by some classic short squeeze. You’re going to get fucked by being wrong about what Tesla becomes next. Look at the latest short-interest tape. As of the Aug 14 settlement: • 69,196,896 $TSLA shares short • ~2.2% of the float • 2.15 days to cover • ~$23.7 BILLION worth of stock short And the important part is that… Short interest peaked at 79.1M shares on June 30. So roughly 12.5% of those shorts had already been covered by August 14. So no… I’m NOT sitting here telling you that shorts are trapped. That’s not my thesis. My thesis is actually much more dangerous for a long-term Tesla short. What if they’re simply wrong? Wrong about autonomy. Wrong about Robotaxi. Wrong about Cybercab. And ultimately wrong about what Tesla’s earnings power could look like if this scales. Bc I’ve now watched this story go from something people laughed at… to something I personally rode in. My first Tesla Robotaxi ride in Austin was on launch day, June 22, 2025. Then I came back for the Cybercab launch on September 3, 2026. And it changed the way I look at Tesla. Cybercab isn’t something with Elon standing on a stage telling you what might happen five years from now. You can literally hail one. Pay for a ride. Get inside. There’s no steering wheel. No accelerator. No brake pedal. And it takes paying passengers through real Austin streets. Tesla itself now describes Cybercab as a fully autonomous, purpose-built two-seater in its Robotaxi fleet. That matters... Bc Tesla is no longer trying to prove that Robotaxi can exist bc it does exist. The next question is whether Tesla can scale it safely, economically and fast enough. And THAT is where I think shorts are massively underestimating the company. As of the latest Texas registry data, Tesla has 437 authorized vehicles in Texas - 388 Model Ys/49 Cybercabs It shows how quickly the fleet Tesla is preparing for commercial autonomy is growing. Now zoom out a bit. Tesla already lists more than 125,000 units of installed annual Cybercab manufacturing capacity in Texas. This is INSTALLED capacity. And Tesla calls Cybercab the “workhorse” of its Robotaxi fleet. Tesla spent most of its history making $ by building a vehicle and selling it once. Robotaxi opens a completely different model. Build the vehicle once. Then potentially monetize that same asset again. and again. and again. every time somebody takes a ride. Instead of only asking: “How many cars can Tesla sell this quarter?” You start asking: “How many autonomous miles can Tesla sell every day?” That is a MASSIVE change in the business model. And Cybercab is built specifically for that job. Not around a driver. Around the rider. If Tesla can bring those pieces together at scale, it has the potential to build a transportation network where the machine itself replaces THE largest costs in traditional ride-hailing: the human driver. Then there’s the flywheel. More Cybercabs. More geographic coverage. Shorter wait times. More rides. Higher fleet utilization. More recurring revenue. More capital to deploy even more vehicles. Tesla itself has told investors it expects hardware profits over time to be joined by accelerating AI, software and fleet-based profits. Does Tesla still have to execute? Absolutely. Regulation matters. Safety matters. Utilization matters. Manufacturing ramp matters. The economics have to work at scale. Those are legitimate risks, and anyone pretending otherwise isn’t being serious. But the serious Tesla short thesis can’t just be: “Elon promised autonomy before.” An actual bear now has to explain why a steering-wheel-free vehicle that is already carrying paying passengers won’t scale into a meaningful business. Tesla shorts are still betting against a car company, but I bet Cybercab is about to prove they’re shorting a transportation network.

Teslaconomics

34,104 просмотров • 2 дней назад

ELON: TESLA OWNERS WILL BE ABLE TO ADD THEIR CARS TO THE ROBOTAXI FLEET “Any customer will be able to add or remove their car to the Tesla network. We expect this to operate like a combination of maybe the Uber and Airbnb model. If you own the car, you can add or subtract it to the Tesla network and Tesla would take 25% or 30% of the revenue. In places where there aren't enough people sharing their cars, we would just have dedicated Tesla vehicles. It's really simple. We'll update the app and add summon Tesla or add or subtract your car to the fleet. You'll be able to do that from your phone.” Source: Elon Musk, Tesla Autonomy Day, April 2019

ELON: TESLA OWNERS WILL BE ABLE TO ADD THEIR CARS TO THE ROBOTAXI FLEET “Any customer will be able to add or remove their car to the Tesla network. We expect this to operate like a combination of maybe the Uber and Airbnb model. If you own the car, you can add or subtract it to the Tesla network and Tesla would take 25% or 30% of the revenue. In places where there aren't enough people sharing their cars, we would just have dedicated Tesla vehicles. It's really simple. We'll update the app and add summon Tesla or add or subtract your car to the fleet. You'll be able to do that from your phone.” Source: Elon Musk, Tesla Autonomy Day, April 2019

Mario Nawfal

189,862 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

I think everyone should listen to this. Tesla FSD has gotten so incredibly good that people are now getting so hung up on the lingering issues and completely dismissing the fact that we literally have self-driving cars. When I grew up the idea of a self-driving car was something out of science fiction. Ten year old Devin could have never guessed that later in life his car would be driven by electricity and drive itself. The future is cool, appreciate it for what it is and don't get too hungup on the imperfections along the way. Tesla is actively putting out new updates as fast as they possibly can to continue to make FSD better - let them cook, and enjoy the ride.

I think everyone should listen to this. Tesla FSD has gotten so incredibly good that people are now getting so hung up on the lingering issues and completely dismissing the fact that we literally have self-driving cars. When I grew up the idea of a self-driving car was something out of science fiction. Ten year old Devin could have never guessed that later in life his car would be driven by electricity and drive itself. The future is cool, appreciate it for what it is and don't get too hungup on the imperfections along the way. Tesla is actively putting out new updates as fast as they possibly can to continue to make FSD better - let them cook, and enjoy the ride.

Devin Olsen

50,892 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood in a new Bloomberg interview on Tesla Robotaxi vs Waymo: "Vertical integration with Tesla means it will have the lowest cost structure, by far. If our analysis is correct, those costs as Robotaxi scales are going to drop to $0.25 per mile. The cost of transportation is going to collapse. Waymo’s cost structure, according to our estimates in 2030, will be 50% higher than Tesla’s because they’re dependent on other auto manufacturers and others in the supply chain that Tesla is not." 🎯 It will become increasingly obvious as time goes on. I seriously don’t see how anyone is going to be able to compete with Tesla at scale. Cybercabs are designed and optimized from the ground up for full-scale autonomy, with a single car rolling off the assembly line every 10 seconds or less once scaled. Nobody else is making their own cars, computers, batteries, manufacturing methods, and so on. Tesla is in a unique position that took years to build. Everything is now coming to fruition.

ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood in a new Bloomberg interview on Tesla Robotaxi vs Waymo: "Vertical integration with Tesla means it will have the lowest cost structure, by far. If our analysis is correct, those costs as Robotaxi scales are going to drop to $0.25 per mile. The cost of transportation is going to collapse. Waymo’s cost structure, according to our estimates in 2030, will be 50% higher than Tesla’s because they’re dependent on other auto manufacturers and others in the supply chain that Tesla is not." 🎯 It will become increasingly obvious as time goes on. I seriously don’t see how anyone is going to be able to compete with Tesla at scale. Cybercabs are designed and optimized from the ground up for full-scale autonomy, with a single car rolling off the assembly line every 10 seconds or less once scaled. Nobody else is making their own cars, computers, batteries, manufacturing methods, and so on. Tesla is in a unique position that took years to build. Everything is now coming to fruition.

Nic Cruz Patane

42,298 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад