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Full Athena DEMO: - Proprietary 1P intent data-lake. - Single-unified ecosystem. - Agentic automation. That is $ZETA's MOAT.

27,696 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Thoughts on OpenAI growth... Comparing Anthropic and OpenAI is the natural thing to do, but we also have to remember - these are two businesses chasing two DIFFERENT monetization models. I've said this before, in fact I wrote about it 2 months ago when OpenAI announced the development of their DSP (ad platform). OpenAI is chasing Google's architecture. Anthropic is chasing Microsoft's architecture. OpenAI is intentionally pursuing a monetization strategy that focuses on the consumer first. Whereas Anthropic is intentionally pursuing a strategy to focus on the enterprise first. This is a very similar dichotomy to that of $GOOGL v. $MSFT. Let's start off the with a quick comparison. Q2 Revenue: - OpenAI: $6.7 billion (+18% QoQ) - Anthropic: $11.6 billion (+100% QoQ) Dramatic different, yes - but are we surprised? I'm personally not. It's been public information for quite some time that Anthropic has found tremendous enterprise success - with ClaudeCode used by 8 of the 10 largest corporations and 70% of the F100 companies... Yes, I expect the revenue ramp for this business to be dramatic! On the flip side, OpenAI has Codex. However, this is not their core strategy for monetization. They've chosen the path of programatic advertising - the same path $GOOGL walked in 2000. $GOOGL's growth did NOT explode the moment they launched their ad-platform - let's look at the numbers: - 2000: $70M (Launch) - 2001: $86M - 2002: $440M (PPC launch) - 2003: $1.5B - 2005: $6.1B (AdSense launch) - 2007: $16.4B Albeit, this was earlier days for online advertising. The point being, this is not a switch you turn on and expect revenue to flow through as if were a hydro-electric dam lifting it's gates for the first time. No, this is a new channel for CMOs, SMBs and agencies to activate on - they have to learn it - understand what content and strategies best work - heck, OpenAI has to validate there are no placement or programmatic issues while expanding services into more geographical regions. That being said, here's the current milestones of OpenAI's ad platform development... - Feb 9 '26 (Pilot launch US) - Mar 26 '26 (Success - $100M ARR hit) - Apr '26 (CPC launched) - Aug '26 (Confirmed Intl expansion) - Present (Ads hit ~$1B ARR) To put that into perspective, they're targeting $2.5B in ad revenue for the full year. Sure, a faction of the total projected $62B in 2026 revenue, but this is just the beginning. Looking at their long-term ad projections: - 2026: $2.5B - 2027: $11B - 2028: $25B - 2029: $53B - 2030: $100B This long term business model is advertising - through and through. In my opinion, the enterprise exposure and seat subscriptions will be supplemental to an advertising core - much like a $GOOGL. Remember, OpenAI still dominates among consumers, people who aren't using LLMs for coding or development - but rather a search supplement. This is a context rich ecosystem, perfect for advertising. Because more context equals more clarity of intent. Talking big picture... If we see a token crunch, and pricing per token plummets, in this hypothetical world OpenAI is likely to be more "protected" vs. the likes of an Anthropic. Enterprise billing and cost per token are virtually linked to the hip. If Anthropic is unable to charge a premium due to alternative open-source models and/or a change in the demand ecosystem - this could be problematic to their revenue model. On the flip side - OpenAI with an ads-first monetization strategy, may be spared in this hypothetical scenario. A growing user base with compounding consumer context/profiles becomes more and more valuable over time. The more features, tools and value they are able to provide to the consumer, the more integrated the consumer becomes. The result is more consumer data - and we all know, a real time consumer data-rich ecosystem can create MASSIVE adverting demand (look at $META / $GOOGL) That being said... I'm not making an argument for OpenAI's alleged valuation - it will be VERY difficult to justify - especially in it's current state. My point is simply... I think it is very possible for OpenAI to have a much less volatile long-term revenue strategy through ad monetization because of their position of consumer dominance. Therefore, the direct success of this ads platform is a CRITICAL gate for the company to IPO. As a $ZETA investor noting the relationship these two companies have - I think the prospect of a context rich environment, therefore high intent prospects, with the deterministic profiled IDs - is something advertisers would love to gain access to... heck I think it excites them. For $ZETA shareholders, this next note is important... OpenAI can provide deterministic verification of a person and the intent from that person when they're logged in. If a user is NOT logged in - this is where $ZETA is critical. OpenAI can use $ZETA's deterministic data graph to validate who this person is, and close the loop. For an enterprise - this is required when driving marketing budgets against a return target (ROAS).

Wealthmatica

14,671 просмотров • 16 дней назад