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Gavin Baker: "The Magnificent 7 ( Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla ) - today priced at $10-12 trillion, will for sure go to $50-100 trillion. But one or two of those companies will go extinct " this is him on which AI companies will survive, Elon Musk's...

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bodila

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376,049 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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TenFive profil fotoğrafı
TenFive4 gün önce

US is currently in a real standoff with China

bodila profil fotoğrafı
bodila4 gün önce

In some respects, the US cannot compete with China, just as China cannot compete with the US...

TenFive profil fotoğrafı
TenFive4 gün önce

in many ways, their struggle is equal to their cooperation

Phil Trubey profil fotoğrafı
Phil Trubey4 gün önce

Love listening to Gavin Baker, but this video is about a year old.

codila profil fotoğrafı
codila4 gün önce

what a great takes by Gavin ! he literally said what you should buy, booked bro

bodila profil fotoğrafı
bodila4 gün önce

Yes, Baker proves his points not with words, but with actions so it's worth listening to him, just as it is to Mask

Korens profil fotoğrafı
Korens4 gün önce

saved

bodila profil fotoğrafı
bodila4 gün önce

watch as soon as possible!

AI Mastery Guide profil fotoğrafı
AI Mastery Guide4 gün önce

which two go extinct though

Matica 🟦(❖,❖)🚢 profil fotoğrafı
Matica 🟦(❖,❖)🚢4 gün önce

Picking which two go under is the hard part, Tesla would be my guess

Jonathan Sandhu profil fotoğrafı
Jonathan Sandhu4 gün önce

Great job.

Tim profil fotoğrafı
Tim4 gün önce

I'm sure he's not talking his book, right ?

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OpenAI’s Bob McGrew on how AI startups should think about moats Startups building agents today tend to look at the cost of human labor when they think about pricing. For example, some startups building AI lawyers think they’ll be able to charge tens of thousands of dollars per month because human lawyers really expensive. Bob McGrew, former Head of Research at OpenAI, disagrees: “The reason lawyers are expensive is because their time is scarce — there’s only so many people who have undergone that training. But by the time you’ve made an AI model out of it, there will effectively be an infinite number of lawyers.” He continues: “Maybe you with your AI lawyer startup will be able to have a lead over other people, but it’s the same frontier model underneath. Some other startup can come in and compete that away. So we should expect to see it priced at some opportunity cost over the cost of compute.” Where will value accrue in AI? Bob believes it will be at the application layer — so much so that frontier model investment from companies like OpenAI should be viewed as “an option on the valuable places in the application layer.” ChatGPT is one valuable application. Coding is another. He offers startups the following advice: “I think you can compete with frontier labs, but you want to do something more than just a personal productivity task on your computer — something that involves other people or an enterprise. The moats that you have for your business are going to be the same moats they always were: network effects, brand, economies of scale.” Video source: Sequoia Capital (2025)

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ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

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Gavin Baker says the future for the world's biggest companies is open models and private context: "I think the future is an ensemble of models. There's a Pareto curve. No one model is going to be the best at everything." "For the global 1,000 biggest companies, you're going to take whatever the best open-source model is. I think probably in the very near future, that's going to be an Nvidia model." "Everybody says 'Well, in a world where open-source wins, who funds the training?' Chip companies can fund the training." "It's trivial to do a $50 to $100 billion training run for Jensen, but I do think you're going to see American open-source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier." "Sharing your own enterprise context, that's truly your IP, that's truly the value of your company, the context embedded in all of your data, sharing that with a frontier lab may be hazardous for your financial health." "I think what you'll see these companies do is they'll have their own model on their data, and it will work with one or two other frontier models, checking each other... I think that feels like a very likely future to me." Gavin Baker David George
1:37

Gavin Baker says the future for the world's biggest companies is open models and private context: "I think the future is an ensemble of models. There's a Pareto curve. No one model is going to be the best at everything." "For the global 1,000 biggest companies, you're going to take whatever the best open-source model is. I think probably in the very near future, that's going to be an Nvidia model." "Everybody says 'Well, in a world where open-source wins, who funds the training?' Chip companies can fund the training." "It's trivial to do a $50 to $100 billion training run for Jensen, but I do think you're going to see American open-source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier." "Sharing your own enterprise context, that's truly your IP, that's truly the value of your company, the context embedded in all of your data, sharing that with a frontier lab may be hazardous for your financial health." "I think what you'll see these companies do is they'll have their own model on their data, and it will work with one or two other frontier models, checking each other... I think that feels like a very likely future to me." Gavin Baker David George

a16z

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Thought this was incredibly insightful from Sundar. Too many people are trying to figure out what the world looks like 10 years from now, while AI is moving at a pace that makes the next year itself feel so exciting Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google): "I think you can paralyze yourself thinking 10 years ahead, but we are fortunate to be in a moment where you can think a year ahead and the curve is so steep It’s exciting to just do that year ahead. Whereas in the past, you may need to sit and envision five years out. The models are going to be dramatically different in a year’s time." A lot of the same applies to investing. In a world that is so uncertain, trying to predict what valuation will be in 10 years is not a helpful exercise Instead, you should try to think about what AI capabilities will exist next year and how that impacts the companies you allocate capital towards Exciting times to live in
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Thought this was incredibly insightful from Sundar. Too many people are trying to figure out what the world looks like 10 years from now, while AI is moving at a pace that makes the next year itself feel so exciting Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google): "I think you can paralyze yourself thinking 10 years ahead, but we are fortunate to be in a moment where you can think a year ahead and the curve is so steep It’s exciting to just do that year ahead. Whereas in the past, you may need to sit and envision five years out. The models are going to be dramatically different in a year’s time." A lot of the same applies to investing. In a world that is so uncertain, trying to predict what valuation will be in 10 years is not a helpful exercise Instead, you should try to think about what AI capabilities will exist next year and how that impacts the companies you allocate capital towards Exciting times to live in

Boring_Business

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Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.
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Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

Wall St Engine

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Harry Stebbings

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