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Gavin Baker: "which AI company actually survives? Google - already multi-trillion Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta chose open source - the only ones left is xAI and Anthropic - xAI + X will be worth over a trillion" this is him explaining what he actually invests in - and why Taiwan...

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bodila

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311,979 次观看 • 1 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -
1:16

Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -

Podcast Alpha

26,746 次观看 • 10 天前

Gavin Baker: "I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today - that's roughly where it would trade as a public company - but they're mistaken that open source is bad for AI - it just kills the labs' margin and hands it to the infrastructure" this is him explaining what he actually invests in - and why his last call on this show is up 14x His words: "OpenAI launched their own chip and basically said 'f you' to Jensen - don't be surprised if Nvidia starts an OpenAI competitor - you heard it here first" "Nvidia is the American open source champion - they can release GLM 5.2 or better whenever they want" "DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year. hundreds of billions of dollars going straight to DRAM - it's wild" "there's a whole segment on X focused on bottlenecks - I call them the bottleneck bros. they do some work with Claude, find some esoteric Japanese company" bookmark & watch today ↓
22:35

Gavin Baker: "I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today - that's roughly where it would trade as a public company - but they're mistaken that open source is bad for AI - it just kills the labs' margin and hands it to the infrastructure" this is him explaining what he actually invests in - and why his last call on this show is up 14x His words: "OpenAI launched their own chip and basically said 'f you' to Jensen - don't be surprised if Nvidia starts an OpenAI competitor - you heard it here first" "Nvidia is the American open source champion - they can release GLM 5.2 or better whenever they want" "DRAM is probably going to be 30 to 40% of all hyperscaler capex next year. hundreds of billions of dollars going straight to DRAM - it's wild" "there's a whole segment on X focused on bottlenecks - I call them the bottleneck bros. they do some work with Claude, find some esoteric Japanese company" bookmark & watch today ↓

bodila

105,712 次观看 • 1 个月前

Gavin Baker: "Anthropic is roughly four times more capital efficient than OpenAI - they're growing really fast and they're not burning that much cash" this is him explaining why he thinks token efficiency decides who wins, why xAI has the lowest cost per token of anyone, and what a Tesla board member says is actually the most advanced AI in the world right now "an Anthropic model can give you a comparable quality answer to a Google model using half as many tokens - and each token is literally cost" "xAI has the lowest cost per token because they build data centers faster and at a lower cost than everyone, and they run GPUs at a higher utilization" Tesla board member Antonio Gracias: "Tesla actually is today the most advanced AI in the world - it does the most complex thing a human does, drive a car" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
15:52

Gavin Baker: "Anthropic is roughly four times more capital efficient than OpenAI - they're growing really fast and they're not burning that much cash" this is him explaining why he thinks token efficiency decides who wins, why xAI has the lowest cost per token of anyone, and what a Tesla board member says is actually the most advanced AI in the world right now "an Anthropic model can give you a comparable quality answer to a Google model using half as many tokens - and each token is literally cost" "xAI has the lowest cost per token because they build data centers faster and at a lower cost than everyone, and they run GPUs at a higher utilization" Tesla board member Antonio Gracias: "Tesla actually is today the most advanced AI in the world - it does the most complex thing a human does, drive a car" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

128,347 次观看 • 1 个月前

the CEO of NVIDIA just said the PC you use today will be gone, replaced by an AI supercomputer that lives in your house Jensen Huang stood on stage holding the machine and said it becomes less like a computer and more like R2-D2, a thing in your home that just does work for you all day he put it bluntly, this is as big as the day the phone became the smartphone and the wild part is the hardware to do it already exists and ships this year here is what he actually unveiled: > a desktop that runs a one trillion parameter AI model locally, 768GB of memory, sitting by your desk > agents that run 24/7 with no meter, no cloud bill, no rental, doing work while you sleep > NVIDIA and Microsoft rebuilding the PC from the ground up for the first time in 40 years > a full lineup, from a $249 chip to enterprise monsters, and almost nobody knows which one they actually need the hype is going to push everyone toward the biggest most expensive machine i wrote the honest breakdown, every NVIDIA AI box, what each really does, the real math, and which one is actually yours the full guide is in the article below
2:00

the CEO of NVIDIA just said the PC you use today will be gone, replaced by an AI supercomputer that lives in your house Jensen Huang stood on stage holding the machine and said it becomes less like a computer and more like R2-D2, a thing in your home that just does work for you all day he put it bluntly, this is as big as the day the phone became the smartphone and the wild part is the hardware to do it already exists and ships this year here is what he actually unveiled: > a desktop that runs a one trillion parameter AI model locally, 768GB of memory, sitting by your desk > agents that run 24/7 with no meter, no cloud bill, no rental, doing work while you sleep > NVIDIA and Microsoft rebuilding the PC from the ground up for the first time in 40 years > a full lineup, from a $249 chip to enterprise monsters, and almost nobody knows which one they actually need the hype is going to push everyone toward the biggest most expensive machine i wrote the honest breakdown, every NVIDIA AI box, what each really does, the real math, and which one is actually yours the full guide is in the article below

John Doe

194,375 次观看 • 3 个月前

The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.
0:50

The creator of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) put a number on the AI build that should stop every infra investor cold. A cluster of a million GPUs runs at roughly 10-20% utilization (Save this). Kim Jung-ho spent thirty years building what feeds the GPU, and his claim is that the GPU is barely working. Here is what is actually happening. Every time a model generates output, the data has to be read out of memory, computed, and written back. The read and the write swallow almost the entire cycle. While that data moves, the GPU does nothing. It sits there, fully powered, fully paid for, waiting. By Kim's estimate the memory is doing only about 30 percent of the work it needs to do. The processor idles the rest. So a million installed GPUs run at 10 to 20 percent. You are not compute constrained. You are memory constrained, and the expensive part is standing around. Adding more GPUs does not fix this. It gives you more processors starving for the same data. Here is the part that decides the next decade. Memory can grow. When a cell cannot shrink any further, you stack it into a high-rise, layer on layer. A GPU cannot be stacked. It runs too hot and needs a cooler bolted to its back, so the one move that rescues memory is closed to the processor. The thing that can keep stacking compounds. The thing that cannot plateaus. The marginal dollar in an AI build now buys more by fixing the memory path than by bolting on another idle GPU. Which is why the companies that control memory bandwidth and supply are not suppliers to the AI trade. They are the AI trade.

Fireside Alpha

38,370 次观看 • 2 个月前

THIS $1,300 CARD HAS THE SAME 32GB OF VRAM AS A $2,000+ RTX 5090 - FOR LOCAL AI, THAT'S THE SPEC THAT DECIDES EVERYTHING. that clip is the gigabyte radeon ai pro r9700 ai top, 32gb of vram, built for local ai. the pitch is simple: the same memory capacity as an rtx 5090, for roughly a third of what a 5090 actually sells for. here's why that matters, and where it doesn't. for ai, vram is the gate. a model either fits in memory or it doesn't. 32gb loads models a 16gb card can't touch, full stop. so for running local llms and image models, this card does the one thing that counts, cheap. honest line: this is not a 5090 for gaming. the 5090 is far faster at raster and ray tracing. they only match on how much vram they carry. if you want frames, buy the 5090. if you want to fit big models locally, you just found the same 32gb for a third of the money. no $2,000+ price tag, no cloud gpu rental, no model too big for 16gb. the uncomfortable part isn't that amd is cheaper. it's that for local ai you were about to overpay for gaming power you'd never use. follow RetroChainer for more on paying for the spec that matters, and bookmark this before your next gpu.
1:52

THIS $1,300 CARD HAS THE SAME 32GB OF VRAM AS A $2,000+ RTX 5090 - FOR LOCAL AI, THAT'S THE SPEC THAT DECIDES EVERYTHING. that clip is the gigabyte radeon ai pro r9700 ai top, 32gb of vram, built for local ai. the pitch is simple: the same memory capacity as an rtx 5090, for roughly a third of what a 5090 actually sells for. here's why that matters, and where it doesn't. for ai, vram is the gate. a model either fits in memory or it doesn't. 32gb loads models a 16gb card can't touch, full stop. so for running local llms and image models, this card does the one thing that counts, cheap. honest line: this is not a 5090 for gaming. the 5090 is far faster at raster and ray tracing. they only match on how much vram they carry. if you want frames, buy the 5090. if you want to fit big models locally, you just found the same 32gb for a third of the money. no $2,000+ price tag, no cloud gpu rental, no model too big for 16gb. the uncomfortable part isn't that amd is cheaper. it's that for local ai you were about to overpay for gaming power you'd never use. follow RetroChainer for more on paying for the spec that matters, and bookmark this before your next gpu.

RetroChainer

38,844 次观看 • 1 个月前

Ken Griffin was asked if AI could tell you which stocks to buy, before he bought the entire book of Leopold Aschenbrenner: "there are people that have a fantasy that LLMs are going to tell you which stocks to buy - and it's just a fantasy, just a fantasy" "but wouldn't they be smart enough to tell you which stocks to buy?" - "no, because they're not smart, they're just programmed - they are very good at thoughtfully regurgitating" this is him explaining why he thinks the productivity gains everyone is pricing in are still years away, why Nvidia reminds him of the California gold rush, and what he says is the one risk the market is completely missing "it's not clear to me that we're going to get the productivity gains out of AI that the market's broadly hoping for - they're not about to happen in the next 12 or 24 or 36 months" "this is like the gold mining in California - those that sold the picks made a lot of money - and Nvidia right now sells one of the most important ingredients in the AI story" "the question with every investment is whether or not it's the right price - that's the fundamental of investing" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓
14:09

Ken Griffin was asked if AI could tell you which stocks to buy, before he bought the entire book of Leopold Aschenbrenner: "there are people that have a fantasy that LLMs are going to tell you which stocks to buy - and it's just a fantasy, just a fantasy" "but wouldn't they be smart enough to tell you which stocks to buy?" - "no, because they're not smart, they're just programmed - they are very good at thoughtfully regurgitating" this is him explaining why he thinks the productivity gains everyone is pricing in are still years away, why Nvidia reminds him of the California gold rush, and what he says is the one risk the market is completely missing "it's not clear to me that we're going to get the productivity gains out of AI that the market's broadly hoping for - they're not about to happen in the next 12 or 24 or 36 months" "this is like the gold mining in California - those that sold the picks made a lot of money - and Nvidia right now sells one of the most important ingredients in the AI story" "the question with every investment is whether or not it's the right price - that's the fundamental of investing" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

215,706 次观看 • 1 个月前

Amplitude CEO Spenser Skates says the SaaSpocalypse is real, and your old moat is dead. The only moat now is speed of innovation: "You have to be pushing the bleeding edge of what capabilities are. If you create a company that can do that, that's what customers will buy." "What the SaaSpocalypse has gotten right is - if you look at the median SaaS company, their innovation has actually slowed to a standstill." "It's crazy how little they ship in terms of net new products." "Speed of using the bleeding edge of these model capabilities is all that matters. You're even seeing it in the foundational model companies. Opus was the hottest thing a week ago, then it Codex literally launched the same day, saying, 'We're even better, and we're faster and we're on Cerebras chips.' I think all that matters is the rate of improvement." "It's like sushi. Buyers are always going to want the best thing. So if you're keeping up with innovating the best thing, you will be able to charge a premium. It's fine that the 7/11 gas station now sells sushi. It's not going to put Jiro in Japan out of business." "The lesson is - there is no moat anymore from what we've built. There's only a moat if we're able to deliver the most bleeding edge capability."
2:07

Amplitude CEO Spenser Skates says the SaaSpocalypse is real, and your old moat is dead. The only moat now is speed of innovation: "You have to be pushing the bleeding edge of what capabilities are. If you create a company that can do that, that's what customers will buy." "What the SaaSpocalypse has gotten right is - if you look at the median SaaS company, their innovation has actually slowed to a standstill." "It's crazy how little they ship in terms of net new products." "Speed of using the bleeding edge of these model capabilities is all that matters. You're even seeing it in the foundational model companies. Opus was the hottest thing a week ago, then it Codex literally launched the same day, saying, 'We're even better, and we're faster and we're on Cerebras chips.' I think all that matters is the rate of improvement." "It's like sushi. Buyers are always going to want the best thing. So if you're keeping up with innovating the best thing, you will be able to charge a premium. It's fine that the 7/11 gas station now sells sushi. It's not going to put Jiro in Japan out of business." "The lesson is - there is no moat anymore from what we've built. There's only a moat if we're able to deliver the most bleeding edge capability."

TBPN

95,450 次观看 • 6 个月前

Elon Musk on which company he would invest in if he was a stock investor: “If I had to pick, it would be AI and robotics — even unrelated to me. I think Google is going to be extremely valuable in the future. They’ve laid the groundwork for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. NVIDIA is obvious at this point. There’s an argument that companies doing AI, robotics, and maybe space flight are going to capture almost all the value. The output of goods and services from AI and robotics will be so high that it will dwarf everything else.” — Via new Interview with Nikhil Kamath
1:53

Elon Musk on which company he would invest in if he was a stock investor: “If I had to pick, it would be AI and robotics — even unrelated to me. I think Google is going to be extremely valuable in the future. They’ve laid the groundwork for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. NVIDIA is obvious at this point. There’s an argument that companies doing AI, robotics, and maybe space flight are going to capture almost all the value. The output of goods and services from AI and robotics will be so high that it will dwarf everything else.” — Via new Interview with Nikhil Kamath

Nic Cruz Patane

702,003 次观看 • 9 个月前

Ed Zitron says there is no post-dotcom-style recovery here, because outside OpenAI and Anthropic all of AI barely sells $22 billion against a trillion spent "The post-dotcom bubble thing people say is, well, after that there was demand from the internet." "That's very different to demand for generative AI." "Right now the demand we have for generative AI is predominantly subsidized, and most people who experience it are not paying the real cost." "On top of that, we already have all of the possible marketing in the world." "We have the largest, most disingenuous marketing campaign in the history of man, pushing this up the hill." "We have the apex predator of cloud software, Microsoft. They can only get single-digit billions from selling AI software." "And Christ almighty, outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, we barely get $22 billion." "And the thing is, $22 billion is a large amount to you and me. It's not a large amount of money when you spent a trillion-plus dollars." "When you have Anthropic and OpenAI with $1.1 trillion worth of cloud commitments, and on top of that, how does this turn into a post-dotcom bubble thing?" "A data center built today is going to be as expensive to run in 2050 as it is today unless there's some breakthrough in electricity."
1:08

Ed Zitron says there is no post-dotcom-style recovery here, because outside OpenAI and Anthropic all of AI barely sells $22 billion against a trillion spent "The post-dotcom bubble thing people say is, well, after that there was demand from the internet." "That's very different to demand for generative AI." "Right now the demand we have for generative AI is predominantly subsidized, and most people who experience it are not paying the real cost." "On top of that, we already have all of the possible marketing in the world." "We have the largest, most disingenuous marketing campaign in the history of man, pushing this up the hill." "We have the apex predator of cloud software, Microsoft. They can only get single-digit billions from selling AI software." "And Christ almighty, outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, we barely get $22 billion." "And the thing is, $22 billion is a large amount to you and me. It's not a large amount of money when you spent a trillion-plus dollars." "When you have Anthropic and OpenAI with $1.1 trillion worth of cloud commitments, and on top of that, how does this turn into a post-dotcom bubble thing?" "A data center built today is going to be as expensive to run in 2050 as it is today unless there's some breakthrough in electricity."

Fireside Alpha

127,114 次观看 • 18 天前

Gavin Baker: "The Magnificent 7 ( Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla ) - today priced at $10-12 trillion, will for sure go to $50-100 trillion. But one or two of those companies will go extinct " this is him on which AI companies will survive, Elon Musk's predictions - and where the safest money will be made "Google, Meta, and xAI - the only foundation-model companies at the application layer that will have enterprise value in five years" when AI could surpass all of humanity: "Elon predicted three years - I think five years is a reasonably safe prediction." "There’s for sure FOMO. Our job as investors is not to give in to FOMO. If you gave in to FOMO in 2021, you went all in on crypto and application SaaS... Application SaaS, I think, is done." "The leading labs in America have very effectively weaponized fear of China moving ahead of America. So there’s going to be no regulation - for better or worse." bookmark & watch - read article below ↓
9:38

Gavin Baker: "The Magnificent 7 ( Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla ) - today priced at $10-12 trillion, will for sure go to $50-100 trillion. But one or two of those companies will go extinct " this is him on which AI companies will survive, Elon Musk's predictions - and where the safest money will be made "Google, Meta, and xAI - the only foundation-model companies at the application layer that will have enterprise value in five years" when AI could surpass all of humanity: "Elon predicted three years - I think five years is a reasonably safe prediction." "There’s for sure FOMO. Our job as investors is not to give in to FOMO. If you gave in to FOMO in 2021, you went all in on crypto and application SaaS... Application SaaS, I think, is done." "The leading labs in America have very effectively weaponized fear of China moving ahead of America. So there’s going to be no regulation - for better or worse." bookmark & watch - read article below ↓

bodila

376,049 次观看 • 4 天前

Jensen Huang just said this is the greatest era in history to build software. AI agents will not kill software. They will do the exact opposite: create a massive new wave of software demand. at NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 "Click and type. We now replace that with explaining to the AI what we want, our intent, and the AI generates the code or uses tools to produce the necessary output. This is how computers are going to work in the future. This is Agentic AI. For two years, we've been building toward this, and now it has arrived. One of the big breakthroughs, of course, is tool use. A lot of people have said, “Jensen, AI is coming. Agentic AI is coming. Therefore, all the software companies are going to go out of business.” This is exactly the opposite. Because there are going to be so many agents, the world is no longer limited by the number of people. Therefore, those agents are going to use more tools than ever. This is actually an incredible time to be a software company. But the software has to be presented to the agent in a way that the agent can use it. This is a big breakthrough. And in fact, what we have done, as you know, what Nvidia’s treasure..." ---- From 'NVIDIA' YT channel (link in comment)
0:59

Jensen Huang just said this is the greatest era in history to build software. AI agents will not kill software. They will do the exact opposite: create a massive new wave of software demand. at NVIDIA GTC Taipei 2026 "Click and type. We now replace that with explaining to the AI what we want, our intent, and the AI generates the code or uses tools to produce the necessary output. This is how computers are going to work in the future. This is Agentic AI. For two years, we've been building toward this, and now it has arrived. One of the big breakthroughs, of course, is tool use. A lot of people have said, “Jensen, AI is coming. Agentic AI is coming. Therefore, all the software companies are going to go out of business.” This is exactly the opposite. Because there are going to be so many agents, the world is no longer limited by the number of people. Therefore, those agents are going to use more tools than ever. This is actually an incredible time to be a software company. But the software has to be presented to the agent in a way that the agent can use it. This is a big breakthrough. And in fact, what we have done, as you know, what Nvidia’s treasure..." ---- From 'NVIDIA' YT channel (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

16,584 次观看 • 3 个月前

The market is watching xAI charge $50 billion per gigawatt and the rest of the neocloud sector run up is just getting started (Save this). According to Gavin Baker of Atreides Management, this is the most important number in AI infrastructure right now, xAI is monetizing compute at $50 billion per gigawatt on the Google deal, 2 to 3 times what any neocloud competitor charges. Google is paying $920 million per month for access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs through June 2029, and Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month for Colossus 1's 300 megawatts. Baker's point is simple that stop tracking rocket launches, stop tracking GPU orders, model gigawatt additions. At $50 billion per gigawatt, every new gigawatt that xAI energizes over the next 12 months is a revenue event that the market has not yet priced in. But this is not just an xAI story but rather why neocloud stocks are one of the most mispriced assets in the entire AI stack. Neoclouds charge $17 to $25 billion per gigawatt in contract value, a dramatic discount to xAI's pricing, but still an extraordinary business model when the underlying infrastructure costs $9 to $12 million per megawatt to operate and customers are signing 5-year locked contracts. H100 GPU-hours from neoclouds like Nebius at $2.95 per GPU-hour are 66% cheaper than hyperscaler rates, which is the structural reason enterprise AI teams are shifting spend to neoclouds at an accelerating pace. The neocloud market is projected to grow 69% annually through 2030 to reach nearly $180 billion and right now only a handful of public companies offer direct exposure to it. Nebius is the standout among the publicly traded neoclouds. It reported Q1 2026 AI cloud revenue of $399 million, an 841% increase year over year beating estimates, with its CEO stating that demand continues to exceed available capacity and customers are actively being turned away. Nebius commands a 20 to 25% revenue premium over peers thanks to its full-stack software offering, European sovereign positioning, and data residency advantages that physically prevent hyperscalers from competing for a large portion of its customer base. It has $49 billion in contracted backlog with Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia meaning its revenue trajectory for the next three to five years is not a forecast, it is a schedule. The competitive moat is in power, permits, and speed exactly what xAI has proven is the true bottleneck. Jensen Huang said publicly that xAI deploys data centers faster than anyone else in the ecosystem, and Baker called out that this deployment speed advantage directly translates to monetization speed, every week of earlier energization at these pricing levels is worth hundreds of millions in revenue. Neoclouds with secured power, permits, and long-term customer contracts are not in a fair race against companies still waiting on grid connections and zoning approvals. The companies with the most locked in gigawatts coming online in 2026 and 2027 are about to have very good years.
1:14

The market is watching xAI charge $50 billion per gigawatt and the rest of the neocloud sector run up is just getting started (Save this). According to Gavin Baker of Atreides Management, this is the most important number in AI infrastructure right now, xAI is monetizing compute at $50 billion per gigawatt on the Google deal, 2 to 3 times what any neocloud competitor charges. Google is paying $920 million per month for access to roughly 110,000 Nvidia GPUs through June 2029, and Anthropic is paying $1.25 billion per month for Colossus 1's 300 megawatts. Baker's point is simple that stop tracking rocket launches, stop tracking GPU orders, model gigawatt additions. At $50 billion per gigawatt, every new gigawatt that xAI energizes over the next 12 months is a revenue event that the market has not yet priced in. But this is not just an xAI story but rather why neocloud stocks are one of the most mispriced assets in the entire AI stack. Neoclouds charge $17 to $25 billion per gigawatt in contract value, a dramatic discount to xAI's pricing, but still an extraordinary business model when the underlying infrastructure costs $9 to $12 million per megawatt to operate and customers are signing 5-year locked contracts. H100 GPU-hours from neoclouds like Nebius at $2.95 per GPU-hour are 66% cheaper than hyperscaler rates, which is the structural reason enterprise AI teams are shifting spend to neoclouds at an accelerating pace. The neocloud market is projected to grow 69% annually through 2030 to reach nearly $180 billion and right now only a handful of public companies offer direct exposure to it. Nebius is the standout among the publicly traded neoclouds. It reported Q1 2026 AI cloud revenue of $399 million, an 841% increase year over year beating estimates, with its CEO stating that demand continues to exceed available capacity and customers are actively being turned away. Nebius commands a 20 to 25% revenue premium over peers thanks to its full-stack software offering, European sovereign positioning, and data residency advantages that physically prevent hyperscalers from competing for a large portion of its customer base. It has $49 billion in contracted backlog with Meta, Microsoft, and Nvidia meaning its revenue trajectory for the next three to five years is not a forecast, it is a schedule. The competitive moat is in power, permits, and speed exactly what xAI has proven is the true bottleneck. Jensen Huang said publicly that xAI deploys data centers faster than anyone else in the ecosystem, and Baker called out that this deployment speed advantage directly translates to monetization speed, every week of earlier energization at these pricing levels is worth hundreds of millions in revenue. Neoclouds with secured power, permits, and long-term customer contracts are not in a fair race against companies still waiting on grid connections and zoning approvals. The companies with the most locked in gigawatts coming online in 2026 and 2027 are about to have very good years.

Milk Road AI

74,945 次观看 • 3 个月前

If you are a $TSLA investor and still on the fence about a potential merger with $SPCX, you owe it to yourself to listen to the latest All-In podcast. It will help you understand SpaceX and the insane number of revenue levers that they have to create a multi-trillion dollar company. This is NOT something that will begin to take shape in 5-10 years. It will be something that is already material and will continue to increase dramatically in the coming years. Below is a quick clip of what Friedberg said and the full video is below as well. If you are only interested in the SpaceX piece of the video then fast-forward to 20:39 on the timestamp.
2:07

If you are a $TSLA investor and still on the fence about a potential merger with $SPCX, you owe it to yourself to listen to the latest All-In podcast. It will help you understand SpaceX and the insane number of revenue levers that they have to create a multi-trillion dollar company. This is NOT something that will begin to take shape in 5-10 years. It will be something that is already material and will continue to increase dramatically in the coming years. Below is a quick clip of what Friedberg said and the full video is below as well. If you are only interested in the SpaceX piece of the video then fast-forward to 20:39 on the timestamp.

Doctor Jack

149,788 次观看 • 1 个月前

Travis Kalanick: Tesla is the Google of the Physical AI Era “I like to break down the physical AI stack: (it) includes computation, a physical AI model, all the things you think of.” “What about land? Development? That should be in that stack. What about chemistry? That needs to be in the stack. Manufacturing needs to be a stack.” “When you look at the stack, you're like, ‘Damn, Tesla's got this sh*t.’ They are the Google of this era.” “What I mean by that is, if you were doing a startup in the 2000s, the first question you would get is, ‘Why isn't Google gonna kill you?’ Or, ‘Why isn't Google just gonna do it?’ They’re not even gonna know that they killed you.” “And before that, it was Microsoft in the late 90s. Uber had a time, 2010s.” “But in the physical AI space, that's sort of a Tesla thing.” -------------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this happen!: EY (EY) Austin vibes meet AI innovation. Thanks to EY for co‑hosting with us at #SXSW. Discover what executives are saying about AI transformation in the latest AI Pulse Survey.
0:54

Travis Kalanick: Tesla is the Google of the Physical AI Era “I like to break down the physical AI stack: (it) includes computation, a physical AI model, all the things you think of.” “What about land? Development? That should be in that stack. What about chemistry? That needs to be in the stack. Manufacturing needs to be a stack.” “When you look at the stack, you're like, ‘Damn, Tesla's got this sh*t.’ They are the Google of this era.” “What I mean by that is, if you were doing a startup in the 2000s, the first question you would get is, ‘Why isn't Google gonna kill you?’ Or, ‘Why isn't Google just gonna do it?’ They’re not even gonna know that they killed you.” “And before that, it was Microsoft in the late 90s. Uber had a time, 2010s.” “But in the physical AI space, that's sort of a Tesla thing.” -------------------------------------------- Thanks to our partner for making this happen!: EY (EY) Austin vibes meet AI innovation. Thanks to EY for co‑hosting with us at #SXSW. Discover what executives are saying about AI transformation in the latest AI Pulse Survey.

The All-In Podcast

95,287 次观看 • 6 个月前

🚨THEY CALLED HIM CRAZY FOR 20 YEARS.. HE'S ABOUT TO FILE THE BIGGEST IPO IN HISTORY.. SpaceX is quietly preparing to go public.. targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation.. bigger than Saudi Aramco.. the biggest IPO in human history.. but that's not even the real story.. in february elon merged xAI into SpaceX.. so now one single company owns the rockets.. owns about 65% of every satellite in orbit.. owns Starlink with over 10 million users.. and owns the AI.. think about that for a second.. OpenAI rents its servers from Microsoft.. Anthropic rents from Amazon.. they don't own anything.. they're tenants.. elon owns the infrastructure.. they're putting AI data centers in space.. solar powered.. no electric grid.. no cooling problems.. just satellites running AI in orbit while everyone else is fighting over GPU shipments on the ground.. the pentagon just handed them $2 billion for a defense satellite network.. starlink aviation customers are paying $300K a year.. NASA used to be their biggest customer.. now NASA is only 5% of their revenue.. they outgrew the entire US government.. this man built a company that launches the rockets.. owns the satellites.. provides the internet.. runs the AI.. and is about to go public at the highest valuation in history.. nobody is connecting the dots.. i got into xAI before the merger.. that converts to SpaceX equity before it even hits public markets.. sometimes the play is obvious.. you just have to be paying attention.
0:28

🚨THEY CALLED HIM CRAZY FOR 20 YEARS.. HE'S ABOUT TO FILE THE BIGGEST IPO IN HISTORY.. SpaceX is quietly preparing to go public.. targeting a $1.75 trillion valuation.. bigger than Saudi Aramco.. the biggest IPO in human history.. but that's not even the real story.. in february elon merged xAI into SpaceX.. so now one single company owns the rockets.. owns about 65% of every satellite in orbit.. owns Starlink with over 10 million users.. and owns the AI.. think about that for a second.. OpenAI rents its servers from Microsoft.. Anthropic rents from Amazon.. they don't own anything.. they're tenants.. elon owns the infrastructure.. they're putting AI data centers in space.. solar powered.. no electric grid.. no cooling problems.. just satellites running AI in orbit while everyone else is fighting over GPU shipments on the ground.. the pentagon just handed them $2 billion for a defense satellite network.. starlink aviation customers are paying $300K a year.. NASA used to be their biggest customer.. now NASA is only 5% of their revenue.. they outgrew the entire US government.. this man built a company that launches the rockets.. owns the satellites.. provides the internet.. runs the AI.. and is about to go public at the highest valuation in history.. nobody is connecting the dots.. i got into xAI before the merger.. that converts to SpaceX equity before it even hits public markets.. sometimes the play is obvious.. you just have to be paying attention.

Evan Luthra

101,861 次观看 • 5 个月前

Everyone’s talking about what Jensen said at GTC about AI capex. But the most important thing he said got almost no attention — that software companies are about to become the biggest resellers of AI tokens in the world. Think about what that means. Workday buys raw intelligence from OpenAI. Wraps it in HR domain expertise. Sells it back as an AI product at a massive markup. That’s not a software company anymore. That’s a refinery. And right now nobody is tracking the economics of that refining layer — what the crude costs, what the refined product sells for, and who’s capturing the spread. This is the most important data gap in AI right now. More on this soon. $NVDA
1:06

Everyone’s talking about what Jensen said at GTC about AI capex. But the most important thing he said got almost no attention — that software companies are about to become the biggest resellers of AI tokens in the world. Think about what that means. Workday buys raw intelligence from OpenAI. Wraps it in HR domain expertise. Sells it back as an AI product at a massive markup. That’s not a software company anymore. That’s a refinery. And right now nobody is tracking the economics of that refining layer — what the crude costs, what the refined product sells for, and who’s capturing the spread. This is the most important data gap in AI right now. More on this soon. $NVDA

Nick Dorsey

40,200 次观看 • 5 个月前