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Gavin Baker: "The Magnificent 7 ( Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, NVIDIA, Meta, Tesla ) - today priced at $10-12 trillion, will for sure go to $50-100 trillion. But one or two of those companies will go extinct " this is him on which AI companies will survive, Elon Musk's... predictions - and where the safest money will be made "Google, Meta, and xAI - the only foundation-model companies at the application layer that will have enterprise value in five years" when AI could surpass all of humanity: "Elon predicted three years - I think five years is a reasonably safe prediction." "There’s for sure FOMO. Our job as investors is not to give in to FOMO. If you gave in to FOMO in 2021, you went all in on crypto and application SaaS... Application SaaS, I think, is done." "The leading labs in America have very effectively weaponized fear of China moving ahead of America. So there’s going to be no regulation - for better or worse." bookmark & watch - read article below ↓show more

bodila

14,001 subscribers

376,049 次观看 • 4 天前 •via X (Twitter)

新闻政治财经科学技术

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

12 条评论

TenFive 的头像

TenFive4 天前

US is currently in a real standoff with China

bodila 的头像

bodila4 天前

In some respects, the US cannot compete with China, just as China cannot compete with the US...

TenFive 的头像

TenFive4 天前

in many ways, their struggle is equal to their cooperation

Phil Trubey 的头像

Phil Trubey4 天前

Love listening to Gavin Baker, but this video is about a year old.

codila 的头像

codila4 天前

what a great takes by Gavin ! he literally said what you should buy, booked bro

bodila 的头像

bodila4 天前

Yes, Baker proves his points not with words, but with actions so it's worth listening to him, just as it is to Mask

Korens 的头像

Korens4 天前

saved

bodila 的头像

bodila4 天前

watch as soon as possible!

AI Mastery Guide 的头像

AI Mastery Guide4 天前

which two go extinct though

Matica 🟦(❖,❖)🚢 的头像

Matica 🟦(❖,❖)🚢4 天前

Picking which two go under is the hard part, Tesla would be my guess

Jonathan Sandhu 的头像

Jonathan Sandhu4 天前

Great job.

Tim 的头像

Tim4 天前

I'm sure he's not talking his book, right ?

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FOMO

129,867 次观看 • 1 年前

Mark Cuban says there will only be two types of companies in 3 years "If the CEO doesn't understand that, he's not going to be CEO very long, you tell me so I can start a company to kick their ass" "When it's all said and done over the next three years, there's going to be two types of companies: those who are great at AI and those who went out of business"

Mark Cuban says there will only be two types of companies in 3 years "If the CEO doesn't understand that, he's not going to be CEO very long, you tell me so I can start a company to kick their ass" "When it's all said and done over the next three years, there's going to be two types of companies: those who are great at AI and those who went out of business"

katsu

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Nic Cruz Patane

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bodila

311,979 次观看 • 1 个月前

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Сarm1ne

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The Wolf Of All Streets

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Chamath says OpenAI and Anthropic could be $5 to $10 trillion companies each if they remain a duopoly "I suspect revenues are going to crank at OpenAI and Anthropic and the open labs for a while. But again, that's not the important thing." "If you're thinking about valuation, the markets will look five to 10 years out to answer that question, they're not going to give you a premium valuation on something that they feel could be fragile in the first two to three years." "Somebody has to answer that question precisely. Because if the answer is that it is a duopoly, then there is no risk to the revenue five to 10 years from now, these things are $5 to $10 trillion companies each." "But if there are harnesses that cut the token consumption, because you stop wasting tokens to get to the same output, then it's a little bit more of a question mark. And I think that'll need to get sorted out."

dnap

275,325 次观看 • 1 个月前

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Startup Archive

76,476 次观看 • 1 年前

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

Mario Nawfal

20,354,729 次观看 • 1 年前

Gavin Baker says the future for the world's biggest companies is open models and private context: "I think the future is an ensemble of models. There's a Pareto curve. No one model is going to be the best at everything." "For the global 1,000 biggest companies, you're going to take whatever the best open-source model is. I think probably in the very near future, that's going to be an Nvidia model." "Everybody says 'Well, in a world where open-source wins, who funds the training?' Chip companies can fund the training." "It's trivial to do a $50 to $100 billion training run for Jensen, but I do think you're going to see American open-source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier." "Sharing your own enterprise context, that's truly your IP, that's truly the value of your company, the context embedded in all of your data, sharing that with a frontier lab may be hazardous for your financial health." "I think what you'll see these companies do is they'll have their own model on their data, and it will work with one or two other frontier models, checking each other... I think that feels like a very likely future to me." Gavin Baker David George

Gavin Baker says the future for the world's biggest companies is open models and private context: "I think the future is an ensemble of models. There's a Pareto curve. No one model is going to be the best at everything." "For the global 1,000 biggest companies, you're going to take whatever the best open-source model is. I think probably in the very near future, that's going to be an Nvidia model." "Everybody says 'Well, in a world where open-source wins, who funds the training?' Chip companies can fund the training." "It's trivial to do a $50 to $100 billion training run for Jensen, but I do think you're going to see American open-source led by Nvidia get really close to the frontier." "Sharing your own enterprise context, that's truly your IP, that's truly the value of your company, the context embedded in all of your data, sharing that with a frontier lab may be hazardous for your financial health." "I think what you'll see these companies do is they'll have their own model on their data, and it will work with one or two other frontier models, checking each other... I think that feels like a very likely future to me." Gavin Baker David George

a16z

39,947 次观看 • 15 天前

Thought this was incredibly insightful from Sundar. Too many people are trying to figure out what the world looks like 10 years from now, while AI is moving at a pace that makes the next year itself feel so exciting Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google): "I think you can paralyze yourself thinking 10 years ahead, but we are fortunate to be in a moment where you can think a year ahead and the curve is so steep It’s exciting to just do that year ahead. Whereas in the past, you may need to sit and envision five years out. The models are going to be dramatically different in a year’s time." A lot of the same applies to investing. In a world that is so uncertain, trying to predict what valuation will be in 10 years is not a helpful exercise Instead, you should try to think about what AI capabilities will exist next year and how that impacts the companies you allocate capital towards Exciting times to live in

Thought this was incredibly insightful from Sundar. Too many people are trying to figure out what the world looks like 10 years from now, while AI is moving at a pace that makes the next year itself feel so exciting Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google): "I think you can paralyze yourself thinking 10 years ahead, but we are fortunate to be in a moment where you can think a year ahead and the curve is so steep It’s exciting to just do that year ahead. Whereas in the past, you may need to sit and envision five years out. The models are going to be dramatically different in a year’s time." A lot of the same applies to investing. In a world that is so uncertain, trying to predict what valuation will be in 10 years is not a helpful exercise Instead, you should try to think about what AI capabilities will exist next year and how that impacts the companies you allocate capital towards Exciting times to live in

Boring_Business

45,140 次观看 • 5 个月前

Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

Peter Thiel on $NVDA (about a year ago): It is probably quite tricky. If you had to concretize it, one thing that is very strange is if you just follow the money, at this point 80 to 85% of the money in AI is being made by one company, it is NVIDIA. It is all on this very weird hardware layer, which Silicon Valley does not even know very much about anymore. We do not really do hardware, we do not do silicon chips in Silicon Valley anymore. I get pitched on these companies once every three or four years, and it is always, I have no clue how to do this, it sounds like a pretty good idea, but man, I have no clue, and we never invest. There is this theory that the hardware piece makes the money initially, then gets more commodified over time, and it will shift to software. And the, I do not know, multi trillion dollar question is whether that is going to be true again this time, or whether NVIDIA will have this incredible monopoly. I suspect NVIDIA will. I think it will maintain its position for a while. I think the game theory on it is something like this. All the big tech companies are going to start trying to design their own AI chips so they do not have to pay the 10x markup to NVIDIA. How hard is it for them to do it? How long will it take? If they all do it, then the chips become a commodity and nobody makes money in chips. So do you go into hardware? You should do it if nobody else is doing it. If everybody does it, you should not do it. I am not sure how that nets out, but probably people stay stuck for a while and NVIDIA goes from strength to strength for a while.

Wall St Engine

824,912 次观看 • 10 个月前

Why the Majority of Neo Labs Will Not Be Good Investments “The two foundation models were Neo Labs themselves five years ago, and they’ve turned out to be the best venture bets of all time. Just because that’s true doesn’t mean the other 100 Neo Lab bets you can make today will also be amazing. Now you have other companies with the capital already and other companies with the distribution. The question is which of those bets will be orthogonal enough to the foundation model companies to be an interesting investment.” Rory O'Driscoll Love to hear your thoughts on this Deedy Eno Reyes swyx Lila Tretikov Paul Bonnet

Why the Majority of Neo Labs Will Not Be Good Investments “The two foundation models were Neo Labs themselves five years ago, and they’ve turned out to be the best venture bets of all time. Just because that’s true doesn’t mean the other 100 Neo Lab bets you can make today will also be amazing. Now you have other companies with the capital already and other companies with the distribution. The question is which of those bets will be orthogonal enough to the foundation model companies to be an interesting investment.” Rory O'Driscoll Love to hear your thoughts on this Deedy Eno Reyes swyx Lila Tretikov Paul Bonnet

Harry Stebbings

23,707 次观看 • 4 天前