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Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they... show more

Patrick OShaughnessy

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60,259 次观看 • 19 小时前 •via X (Twitter)

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Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

37,977 次观看 • 1 天前

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

DogeDesigner

28,209 次观看 • 17 小时前

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,791 次观看 • 1 个月前

Full interview with Shaun Maguire of Sequoia Capital on SpaceX IPO. "Orbital compute will be the lowest cost provider of inference compute by at least a factor of three over large scale terrestrial compute. As we've learned in any commodity industry, if you're the lowest cost provider, you are going to crush." We discuss: - the growth trajectory and why retail will likely understand this company better than Wall Street does. - Starship and why it's more technically derisked than the public realizes - orbital compute, an inevitability - thermal engineering advantages - his view on why meaningful launch competition is at least a decade away - why Starlink and direct-to-cell will make SpaceX the world's lowest-cost broadband and mobile provider 👇

Full interview with Shaun Maguire of Sequoia Capital on SpaceX IPO. "Orbital compute will be the lowest cost provider of inference compute by at least a factor of three over large scale terrestrial compute. As we've learned in any commodity industry, if you're the lowest cost provider, you are going to crush." We discuss: - the growth trajectory and why retail will likely understand this company better than Wall Street does. - Starship and why it's more technically derisked than the public realizes - orbital compute, an inevitability - thermal engineering advantages - his view on why meaningful launch competition is at least a decade away - why Starlink and direct-to-cell will make SpaceX the world's lowest-cost broadband and mobile provider 👇

Mo Islam

229,096 次观看 • 1 个月前

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

sourcery

600,189 次观看 • 27 天前

🇺🇸 SpaceX is making a massive AI bet Elon says SpaceX is scaling AI compute at a pace he believes no one else can match, with more than 2 GW expected online by the end of this year. The company could push its cumulative AI compute capacity to nearly 10 GW by the end of next year and has decided to build exclusively on NVIDIA, calling its Vera Rubin platform the best available. If SpaceX delivers, it could become one of the world's AI superpowers. Writer: Val

🇺🇸 SpaceX is making a massive AI bet Elon says SpaceX is scaling AI compute at a pace he believes no one else can match, with more than 2 GW expected online by the end of this year. The company could push its cumulative AI compute capacity to nearly 10 GW by the end of next year and has decided to build exclusively on NVIDIA, calling its Vera Rubin platform the best available. If SpaceX delivers, it could become one of the world's AI superpowers. Writer: Val

Mario Nawfal

38,692 次观看 • 15 小时前

"Mr. IPO" on SpaceX IPO: "There have only been about 18 companies that have gone public at a price-to-sales ratio above 40. SpaceX will go public at 80×. on average, the stock has been a disappointment." SpaceX is eyeing a $1.5 trillion valuation — the largest private-sector company ever to go public Last year it did $18.7B in revenue — bigger than almost any private company at IPO But the price-to-sales ratio will be ~80×. only 18 companies in US history have cleared 40× Of those 18, most disappointed investors after listing The competitive moat is real. Starship makes it nearly impossible to replicate their launch cost advantage The question is not whether it's a great company. it is The question is whether $1.5 trillion leaves anything on the table for you

"Mr. IPO" on SpaceX IPO: "There have only been about 18 companies that have gone public at a price-to-sales ratio above 40. SpaceX will go public at 80×. on average, the stock has been a disappointment." SpaceX is eyeing a $1.5 trillion valuation — the largest private-sector company ever to go public Last year it did $18.7B in revenue — bigger than almost any private company at IPO But the price-to-sales ratio will be ~80×. only 18 companies in US history have cleared 40× Of those 18, most disappointed investors after listing The competitive moat is real. Starship makes it nearly impossible to replicate their launch cost advantage The question is not whether it's a great company. it is The question is whether $1.5 trillion leaves anything on the table for you

plutos

150,212 次观看 • 1 个月前

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

Katie Miller

234,626 次观看 • 1 个月前

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

770,472 次观看 • 14 天前

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

a16z

658,981 次观看 • 4 个月前

Some people criticize all the government contracts SpaceX gets, but the Pentagon said that SpaceX has saved the government over $40B. One SLS launch costs billions. One SpaceX launch costs less than $75M. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on SpaceX's $22B in gov contracts: "We earned that. We bid it, we were the lowest price, best bidder, we won and we execute. It's not a bad thing to serve the U.S. government with great capability and products." The people complaining that SpaceX's gov contracts were "wasteful" really have no clue what they are talking about. Starship (video below) will take savings to a new level and open up incredible opportunities.

Some people criticize all the government contracts SpaceX gets, but the Pentagon said that SpaceX has saved the government over $40B. One SLS launch costs billions. One SpaceX launch costs less than $75M. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell on SpaceX's $22B in gov contracts: "We earned that. We bid it, we were the lowest price, best bidder, we won and we execute. It's not a bad thing to serve the U.S. government with great capability and products." The people complaining that SpaceX's gov contracts were "wasteful" really have no clue what they are talking about. Starship (video below) will take savings to a new level and open up incredible opportunities.

Sawyer Merritt

475,316 次观看 • 1 年前

Elon Musk on why he built SpaceX and Tesla: “SpaceX and Tesla are fundamentally intended to improve the probability that the future is good They will do more than anything I do from a charitable standpoint in terms of usefulness to humanity Tesla is about accelerating sustainable energy. SpaceX is about making life multi-planetary and providing global internet through Starlink These are fundamental goods. The good of those companies will far exceed anything that I do from a charitable standpoint”

Elon Musk on why he built SpaceX and Tesla: “SpaceX and Tesla are fundamentally intended to improve the probability that the future is good They will do more than anything I do from a charitable standpoint in terms of usefulness to humanity Tesla is about accelerating sustainable energy. SpaceX is about making life multi-planetary and providing global internet through Starlink These are fundamental goods. The good of those companies will far exceed anything that I do from a charitable standpoint”

X Freeze

31,008 次观看 • 2 个月前

SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell says Starlink will be profitable this year, but Starship will take the company to the next level. "We are going to make some money on Starlink this year. But ultimately I think Starship will be the thing that takes us over the top as one of the most valuable companies. We can't even envision what Starship is going to do to humanity and humans lives. That will be the most valuable part of SpaceX." (via Baron Capitol conference today)

SpaceX President & COO Gwynne Shotwell says Starlink will be profitable this year, but Starship will take the company to the next level. "We are going to make some money on Starlink this year. But ultimately I think Starship will be the thing that takes us over the top as one of the most valuable companies. We can't even envision what Starship is going to do to humanity and humans lives. That will be the most valuable part of SpaceX." (via Baron Capitol conference today)

Sawyer Merritt

554,625 次观看 • 1 年前

🚨 Google and Anthropic are reportedly paying SpaceX more than $2.1 billion per month for AI compute capacity That's a revenue run rate of roughly $26 billion per year! Jeff Lutz 🔋 says the bigger story isn't the money. It's that some of the world's leading AI companies are choosing SpaceX to power their AI ambitions. A few years ago, SpaceX was known for rockets. Today, it may be becoming one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world. 🚀 $SPCX

🚨 Google and Anthropic are reportedly paying SpaceX more than $2.1 billion per month for AI compute capacity That's a revenue run rate of roughly $26 billion per year! Jeff Lutz 🔋 says the bigger story isn't the money. It's that some of the world's leading AI companies are choosing SpaceX to power their AI ambitions. A few years ago, SpaceX was known for rockets. Today, it may be becoming one of the most important AI infrastructure companies in the world. 🚀 $SPCX

Herbert Ong

33,815 次观看 • 1 个月前

.Shaun Maguire on SpaceX and the American space industry: "[The SpaceX/xAI merger] is something that in the short run will be misunderstood, and then in the long run will look to be absolutely genius." "If you believe that AGI is probably the most important market in the history of humanity... and you believe that compute has to be in space, then it is an incredibly natural combination."

.Shaun Maguire on SpaceX and the American space industry: "[The SpaceX/xAI merger] is something that in the short run will be misunderstood, and then in the long run will look to be absolutely genius." "If you believe that AGI is probably the most important market in the history of humanity... and you believe that compute has to be in space, then it is an incredibly natural combination."

MTS

116,513 次观看 • 3 个月前

SpaceX is about to shatter the largest IPO record in history. Not by a little. By more than double. The previous record was $29 billion. SpaceX is targeting $75 billion. Two months ago the number was $50 billion. Last week it was $70 billion. Now $75 billion. The filing has not even happened yet. Every time the market recalculates what SpaceX actually is, the answer gets bigger. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Morgan Stanley. All lined up as underwriters. Target date: mid-June 2026. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX larger than Meta. Larger than Tesla. Larger than every company on Earth except five. This is not some startup bleeding cash and calling it strategy. SpaceX made $8 billion in profit last year on $16 billion in revenue. They do not need the money. They are raising it because what comes next costs more than profit can fund at the speed they intend to move. Musk: “There just is no way to do a terawatt per year on Earth.” He ran the math on stage with Jensen Huang. Three hundred gigawatts of AI compute per year would consume two-thirds of all US electricity production. Not total energy. Just electricity. And three hundred gigawatts is not even the target. A terawatt is. More than three times that. Building enough power plants is not difficult. It is not expensive. It is physically impossible. Musk: “You have to do that in space.” Not should. Not could. Have to. Earth does not have the power. Cannot build it fast enough. Cannot cool the hardware. Not within a decade. Not at all. The bottleneck is not silicon. Not software. Not data. It is the planet itself. Musk: “You don’t actually need batteries because it’s always sunny in space. And the solar panels become cheaper because you don’t need glass or framing. And the cooling is just radiative.” No batteries. No night cycle. No weather. Just uninterrupted solar hitting bare panels in a vacuum. Heat dissipates on its own. Huang: “Each one of these GB300 racks is two tons. 1.95 of it is probably for cooling.” Ninety-seven percent of the weight of a supercomputer rack exists to keep it from overheating. Move it to space and that weight vanishes. The machine shrinks to something small enough to launch by the thousands. Running on free energy. Cooled by nothing. Musk: “I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites.” Not fifty years. Not twenty. Five. The cheapest AI compute on Earth will not be on Earth. It will be in orbit. And only one company can put it there at the cost and cadence required. That is what the market is pricing. Not a rocket company. The only organization on Earth capable of moving intelligence infrastructure off of it. Huang heard the pitch. The math. The timeline. Huang: “That’s the dream.” Musk: “Yes.” A trillion watts of compute. Powered by the Sun. Cooled by space. Launched by SpaceX. Every company building AI on the ground is building under the same ceiling. The atmosphere.

SpaceX is about to shatter the largest IPO record in history. Not by a little. By more than double. The previous record was $29 billion. SpaceX is targeting $75 billion. Two months ago the number was $50 billion. Last week it was $70 billion. Now $75 billion. The filing has not even happened yet. Every time the market recalculates what SpaceX actually is, the answer gets bigger. Goldman Sachs. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Morgan Stanley. All lined up as underwriters. Target date: mid-June 2026. Target valuation: $1.75 trillion. That would make SpaceX larger than Meta. Larger than Tesla. Larger than every company on Earth except five. This is not some startup bleeding cash and calling it strategy. SpaceX made $8 billion in profit last year on $16 billion in revenue. They do not need the money. They are raising it because what comes next costs more than profit can fund at the speed they intend to move. Musk: “There just is no way to do a terawatt per year on Earth.” He ran the math on stage with Jensen Huang. Three hundred gigawatts of AI compute per year would consume two-thirds of all US electricity production. Not total energy. Just electricity. And three hundred gigawatts is not even the target. A terawatt is. More than three times that. Building enough power plants is not difficult. It is not expensive. It is physically impossible. Musk: “You have to do that in space.” Not should. Not could. Have to. Earth does not have the power. Cannot build it fast enough. Cannot cool the hardware. Not within a decade. Not at all. The bottleneck is not silicon. Not software. Not data. It is the planet itself. Musk: “You don’t actually need batteries because it’s always sunny in space. And the solar panels become cheaper because you don’t need glass or framing. And the cooling is just radiative.” No batteries. No night cycle. No weather. Just uninterrupted solar hitting bare panels in a vacuum. Heat dissipates on its own. Huang: “Each one of these GB300 racks is two tons. 1.95 of it is probably for cooling.” Ninety-seven percent of the weight of a supercomputer rack exists to keep it from overheating. Move it to space and that weight vanishes. The machine shrinks to something small enough to launch by the thousands. Running on free energy. Cooled by nothing. Musk: “I think even perhaps in the four or five year time frame, the lowest cost way to do AI compute will be with solar-powered AI satellites.” Not fifty years. Not twenty. Five. The cheapest AI compute on Earth will not be on Earth. It will be in orbit. And only one company can put it there at the cost and cadence required. That is what the market is pricing. Not a rocket company. The only organization on Earth capable of moving intelligence infrastructure off of it. Huang heard the pitch. The math. The timeline. Huang: “That’s the dream.” Musk: “Yes.” A trillion watts of compute. Powered by the Sun. Cooled by space. Launched by SpaceX. Every company building AI on the ground is building under the same ceiling. The atmosphere.

Dustin

44,710 次观看 • 4 个月前

Joel Shulman on SpaceX and Elon Musk today: • SpaceX dominates the launch market with around 90% market share. • Even competitors rely on SpaceX launches, highlighting its industry leadership. • SpaceX has over 10,000 satellites in orbit, giving it a major competitive advantage. • The company has built a strong moat that is difficult for rivals to replicate. • Launch costs have fallen from ~$54,000/kg to about $2,000/kg, making SpaceX the clear cost leader. • While traditional launch costs have remained high, SpaceX has dramatically reduced costs through innovation. • Elon Musk is a modern-day Rockefeller, for his relentless focus on cost efficiency. • Starlink is the crown jewel of its business.

Joel Shulman on SpaceX and Elon Musk today: • SpaceX dominates the launch market with around 90% market share. • Even competitors rely on SpaceX launches, highlighting its industry leadership. • SpaceX has over 10,000 satellites in orbit, giving it a major competitive advantage. • The company has built a strong moat that is difficult for rivals to replicate. • Launch costs have fallen from ~$54,000/kg to about $2,000/kg, making SpaceX the clear cost leader. • While traditional launch costs have remained high, SpaceX has dramatically reduced costs through innovation. • Elon Musk is a modern-day Rockefeller, for his relentless focus on cost efficiency. • Starlink is the crown jewel of its business.

DogeDesigner

67,604 次观看 • 28 天前

Peter Thiel on Elon Musk: I would never bet against Elon “My number one rule is to never compete with Elon on anything, so I would never bet against Elon. I was a close partner of his at PayPal in the late 90s early 2000s and after PayPal, Elon set out to start these two both rocket and car companies, SpaceX and Tesla. I think the conventional wisdom on Elon was that these were both completely harebrained projects and if one of them had succeeded that you have to sort of question it and when both of them succeeded, it suggests that he knows something other people don’t”

Peter Thiel on Elon Musk: I would never bet against Elon “My number one rule is to never compete with Elon on anything, so I would never bet against Elon. I was a close partner of his at PayPal in the late 90s early 2000s and after PayPal, Elon set out to start these two both rocket and car companies, SpaceX and Tesla. I think the conventional wisdom on Elon was that these were both completely harebrained projects and if one of them had succeeded that you have to sort of question it and when both of them succeeded, it suggests that he knows something other people don’t”

SMX 🇺🇸

380,794 次观看 • 5 个月前

“There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens. He was building EWS all along.” - Brad Gerstner on how becoming a hyperscaler impacts SpaceX’s outlook Brad Gerstner on Elon Musk's cloud strategy: “It's a critically important evolution to the story. SpaceX has this five-layer cake: launch, connectivity, compute, hyperscalers, space datacenters, and then applications and models, and then other bets. And now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He was building EWS all along, and so I estimate that this is going to generate, in this year, an incremental $4 to $5B of revenue on top of what analysts estimate is in the mid-20s. That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here, and that will subsidize, to Chamath's point, all that he's investing to build the next generation of Grok. Remember, too, that he has three facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder. 1.2 gigawatts in Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell. So he's given the one that's kind of less connected, H100's great for inference, to Anthropic. He's monetizing it in a big way. It's terrific for Anthropic, and it solves what I think was the biggest question in the valuation story, which is what if he spends ahead of xAI's revenue? It takes the pressure off xAI delivering immediate revenue. Now he becomes an immediate competitor in the hyperscalers. I don't think this is the last announcement. And I would just say finally, everybody has talked about how we don't have enough power, how we don't have enough compute, how the revenues would not show up this year, but the chaos that is American capitalism somehow finds a way.”

“There's nobody better on planet Earth than Elon at converting electrons to tokens. He was building EWS all along.” - Brad Gerstner on how becoming a hyperscaler impacts SpaceX’s outlook Brad Gerstner on Elon Musk's cloud strategy: “It's a critically important evolution to the story. SpaceX has this five-layer cake: launch, connectivity, compute, hyperscalers, space datacenters, and then applications and models, and then other bets. And now we see the ace card that Elon's playing. He was building EWS all along, and so I estimate that this is going to generate, in this year, an incremental $4 to $5B of revenue on top of what analysts estimate is in the mid-20s. That's a material amount of incremental revenue to offset the cost of the investments that he's made here, and that will subsidize, to Chamath's point, all that he's investing to build the next generation of Grok. Remember, too, that he has three facilities, Colossus, Macro Hard, and Macro Harder. 1.2 gigawatts in Macro Hard and Macro Harder in Blackwell. So he's given the one that's kind of less connected, H100's great for inference, to Anthropic. He's monetizing it in a big way. It's terrific for Anthropic, and it solves what I think was the biggest question in the valuation story, which is what if he spends ahead of xAI's revenue? It takes the pressure off xAI delivering immediate revenue. Now he becomes an immediate competitor in the hyperscalers. I don't think this is the last announcement. And I would just say finally, everybody has talked about how we don't have enough power, how we don't have enough compute, how the revenues would not show up this year, but the chaos that is American capitalism somehow finds a way.”

The All-In Podcast

62,278 次观看 • 2 个月前