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Gavin Baker Analyzes the 'Impossible' 8-Gigawatt SpaceX Compute Report “I've seen Elon Musk's companies do really impressive things, but bringing the FundaAI report of 8 gigawatts in 18 months...” "I'll never bet against Elon, but that would be a truly incredible feat." “They're monetizing at something like $50 billion... a gig, and consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion.” “So forget Starlink V3, Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5, and Cursor. The sum of that probably hits a $10 billion ARR pretty quickly.” “The only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers: CoreWeave, Crusoe, SpaceX. And SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost, and people actually really do like their clusters.” “Very little is built into that stock, from my perspective, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on. Again, I don't think it's anywhere near 8, and it's going to be really hard, and energizing these GPUs is really hard, but they've been good at it, and it doesn't feel like those estimates are really in people's thinking.” Gavin Baker Patrick OShaughnessyshow more

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Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.” “To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX. SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”

Gavin on SpaceX’s compute ambitions: “A Substack writer, FUNDA, thinks that SpaceX is going to bring on eight gigawatts of compute over the next 18 months. I will never bet against Elon. But I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat. And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down.” “To this day, the only companies that have brought on more than 500 megawatts of power in a year are the hyperscalers, CoreWeave, Crusoe, and SpaceX. SpaceX has brought on the most, the fastest, at the lowest cost.”

Patrick OShaughnessy

73,740 views • 7 days ago

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

Gavin Baker says the SpaceX bull case is $400B a year if they build out 8 gigawatts of compute "FundaAI thinks that SpaceX is going to try and bring on eight gigawatts of compute. I will never bet against Elon, but I mean, that would be a truly incredible feat." "And rates have gone up since they signed those last contracts, not down. And they're monetizing at something like $50 billion a gig." "Consensus estimates for next year are $73 billion. So forget Starlink V3, forget Starlink Direct to Cell, Grok 4.5 and Cursor... the sum of that probably hits a 10 billion dollar mark." "There's a big New York hedge fund short case on [SPCX]. They think, 'oh, the spot price for compute's going to go down 90%, and you're going to bring on all this compute, it's not going to generate nearly as much revenue as you think.'" "I think one of Elon's phrases is, 'we specialize in making the impossible late.' I just think very little is built into that stock, for the amount of compute that they might be able to bring on."

dnap

43,531 views • 7 days ago

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast

David Sacks breaks down SpaceX's path to $100 billion ARR by EOY: "The Starship test flight was successful... The heat shield worked. That's going to enable more flights of Starship now at a more accelerated rate." "That paves the way for the V3 satellite, which enables much more bandwidth for the Starlink network and the whole direct-to-cell play." "I think they said they expected to go from 1.4 gigawatts of compute to about 2 by EOY... $30 to $50 billion per gigawatt, and I think they are at the high end of that now." "When Elon says we're going to end the year at $100 billion of ARR, all you have to believe is that they are at 2 gigawatts of compute at $50 billion per gigawatt." "That doesn't include Starlink or the launch business or Grok + Cursor or any of these things, so I think that's why they are so optimistic." Elon Musk David Sacks The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

64,368 views • 3 days ago

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

GAVIN BAKER: “A month ago, SpaceX did not have a cloud computing business. Now by some measures, it is the fourth largest cloud ahead of Oracle — and they did that in 1 month. Let's see what they do in a year. “A really important variable for SpaceX is how many gigawatts can they bring on over the next few years because they are monetizing these gigawatts of terrestrial compute at a very high rate. “Then, when are we reusing Starship such that we could put Starlink V3 satellites up into space, enable direct to cell, and then orbital compute soon after? “There is a path here as a as a public company, with a series of events and milestones that investors can use to track the company's progress.”

Katie Miller

234,626 views • 2 months ago

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

Shaun Maguire on SpaceX IPO: "Starship is the railroad to space." "In 2019, it was very predictable that Starlink would work and produce a massive amount of revenue, and we called that right." "We're now in a very similar point to where Starlink was in 2019 with AI infrastructure and orbital compute." "I think people are really underestimating how far along the orbital compute product is right now." On the $22 trillion TAM: "What do you think is the TAM for intelligence? What's the TAM for all compute infrastructure 50 years from now?" "People are underappreciating how much infrastructure is going to be built in space and how much easier it is to access energy in space." "We're at the beginning of this AI era, and we're going to double or triple the total amount of intelligence that we have access to over the next decade — so yes, I absolutely believe in the TAM, and I would even argue it's an underestimate." How much is the "railroad to space" worth in the era of AI and orbital compute? Now imagine the railroad company also owns the AI and the orbital compute. Elon Musk Shaun Maguire

KanekoaTheGreat

39,709 views • 2 months ago

Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things." "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcast

Brad Gerstner breaks down SpaceX’s massive $1.4 trillion valuation: "I thought his guides were extraordinary... $100 billion in ARR by the end of the year, and he pulled forward the $1 trillion in ARR by a year, from 2031 to 2030." "The market has questions about a few things." "Are you going to use the compute to build your own frontier model or rent it out? And if you rent it out, are you going to be able to find those people who have the capital to offtake that compute?" "He's talking enormous numbers, 10 to 20 gigs, and people are wondering how he's going to finance that." "I think the frontier model is the sleeper. I think he said on the call that Grok tripled tokens in the month of July. That doesn't include Cursor. Cursor was already on the path to go from $3 billion to $10 billion by EOY. Cursor + Grok could be at $10 to $20 billion by EOY." "We haven't even talked about Starlink and what he's going to do with running the table on mobile." Elon Musk Brad Gerstner The All-In Podcast

KanekoaTheGreat

59,930 views • 3 days ago

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

Katherine Boyle says SpaceX’s legacy will be the thousands of companies that spawn from the school of Elon Musk: "What we've learned from the SpaceX story is that these kinds of companies can be built." "It is one of the most important companies in America. It's beloved by Americans across the country for what it's been able to achieve." "The legacy of SpaceX is going to be hundreds, if not thousands of companies—people who've gone to the school of Elon Musk, they've learned manufacturing and they've built companies, and built products in a way that they can take to new companies in manufacturing and defense, and drones and hypersonics—all of these other categories that SpaceX doesn't do." "We're incredibly excited about SpaceX. We're incredibly excited for what it's achieved for the American people and what it's going to lead to over the next 25 years." Katherine Boyle on FOX Business

a16z

658,981 views • 4 months ago

ELON: WE’LL BE BUILDING STARSHIPS AT AN ENORMOUS SCALE “We will be making, at some point, probably as many Starships for Mars as Boeing and Airbus make commercial airplanes. So this is really an enormous scale. And each Starship is bigger than a 747 or an A380. It's truly enormous. And then in terms of Starlink satellites, we'll be making on the order of 5,000 a year, maybe at some point closer to 10,000 a year. And those Starlink v3 satellites are each the size of roughly a 737. They're pretty big. That compares to the B24 bomber in World War II. Now it's still small compared to Tesla. It just puts things into perspective that it is actually possible to build a vast number of interplanetary Starships. And even when you can compare things on the tonnage standpoint, Tesla and other car companies are still building far more complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX. It’s really a way of saying that it's very achievable. These numbers, while they are insanely high by traditional space standards, are achievable by humans because they have been achieved in other industries.” Source: SpaceX Update, May 29, 2025

ELON: WE’LL BE BUILDING STARSHIPS AT AN ENORMOUS SCALE “We will be making, at some point, probably as many Starships for Mars as Boeing and Airbus make commercial airplanes. So this is really an enormous scale. And each Starship is bigger than a 747 or an A380. It's truly enormous. And then in terms of Starlink satellites, we'll be making on the order of 5,000 a year, maybe at some point closer to 10,000 a year. And those Starlink v3 satellites are each the size of roughly a 737. They're pretty big. That compares to the B24 bomber in World War II. Now it's still small compared to Tesla. It just puts things into perspective that it is actually possible to build a vast number of interplanetary Starships. And even when you can compare things on the tonnage standpoint, Tesla and other car companies are still building far more complex manufactured tonnage than SpaceX. It’s really a way of saying that it's very achievable. These numbers, while they are insanely high by traditional space standards, are achievable by humans because they have been achieved in other industries.” Source: SpaceX Update, May 29, 2025

Mario Nawfal

174,798 views • 1 year ago

Elon Musk on where people should invest: "I don't really buy stocks. I don't look for things to invest in. I just try to build things and then there happens to be stock of the company that I built, but I don't have like a portfolio or anything; Google is gonna be pretty valuable in the future. They've laid the ground work for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. Nvidia is obvious at this point. There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe spaceflight, are going to be overwhelmingly almost all of the value."

Elon Musk on where people should invest: "I don't really buy stocks. I don't look for things to invest in. I just try to build things and then there happens to be stock of the company that I built, but I don't have like a portfolio or anything; Google is gonna be pretty valuable in the future. They've laid the ground work for an immense amount of value creation from an AI standpoint. Nvidia is obvious at this point. There's an argument that companies that do AI and robotics, and maybe spaceflight, are going to be overwhelmingly almost all of the value."

Sawyer Merritt

4,473,186 views • 8 months ago

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Gavin Baker on the SpaceX situation: "Wall Street consensus is $73 billion in revenue - if they bring on 3 gigawatts of power next year that's $150 billion - that's not in the model" this is him explaining why SpaceX could double what the Street expects, why intelligence per dollar will define the future of AI, and why betting against Elon has destroyed entire funds "open source models fundamentally just shift margin from the model layer to the infrastructure layer - if you have cheaper tokens we're going to consume more of them - we are structurally short compute" "the Cursor acquisition for $60 billion is looking very smart - that was $3 billion in annual revenue when they bought it - I think it's probably materially higher" "there's a graveyard of funds that shut down because they were Tesla short" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

771,173 views • 21 days ago

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

ELON: I ENSURE GREAT ENGINEERS CAN FLOURISH AT MY COMPANIES “I consider one of my core responsibilities in running companies to have an environment where great engineers can flourish. And I think in a lot of companies, maybe most companies, if somebody is a really talented, driven engineer, their talents are suppressed. At some of the companies, engineering talent is suppressed in a way that is maybe not obviously bad, but where it's just so comfortable, and you're paid so much money, but the output you actually have to produce is so low that it's like a honey trap. They don't necessarily seem like bad places for engineers, but you have to say, a good engineer went in and what did they get out? The output of that engineering talent seems very low. Tesla is not a honey trap. We're demanding. You're going to get a lot of shit done. And it's going to be really cool, and it's not going to be easy. But if you are a super-talented engineer, your talents will be used, I think, to a greater degree than anywhere else. SpaceX is also that way.” Source: Tesla AI Day, September 2022

Mario Nawfal

20,354,729 views • 1 year ago

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

.Starcloud CEO Philip Johnston: "Buy SpaceX stock." "It's like owning the railroads." " The SpaceX IPO is going to be viewed historically as the most undervalued IPO of all time." "They will tear through $10 trillion certainly within the next couple of years, and then have almost unlimited TAM for what they're building." "I'm not like regulated by anybody. So I'm going to tell people, 'Just buy SpaceX stock.' I think it's a great stock to buy." "They own what will be by far the most cost-effective launch vehicle, and that opens up every industry in space that will be possible beyond that: asteroid mining, lunar resource mining, all of the comms businesses that are going to be built. Everything else is going to have to go through SpaceX." "It's like owning the railroads. Lots of businesses will be built on top of it, like our business will be built on top of it." "The railroads are a great business to own." Elon Musk

sourcery

600,189 views • 1 month ago

Ansem breaks down the SpaceX IPO "I actually think SpaceX might be a long on the first day. Elon is really good at getting people to buy into narratives" "Only like 4% of the total float is gonna be tradable on day one and Elon owns like 50%. The whole float isn't trading" "Everyone's gonna try to fade this because the consensus is IPOs don't do well. I think it rips a lot of people"

Ansem breaks down the SpaceX IPO "I actually think SpaceX might be a long on the first day. Elon is really good at getting people to buy into narratives" "Only like 4% of the total float is gonna be tradable on day one and Elon owns like 50%. The whole float isn't trading" "Everyone's gonna try to fade this because the consensus is IPOs don't do well. I think it rips a lot of people"

Market Bubble

60,618 views • 2 months ago

📊 IPO Breakdown: Gavin Baker on CoreWeave Gavin Baker on E221: 🚩 Red flags caused some negativity ahead of the IPO: -- "Investors on X are pretty negative on CoreWeave. I think there's maybe a little bit of negativity in the market." -- "They had to reduce the range, lower the price, and everyone is very convinced this is a commodity business, loads of debt, loads of CapEx." 🐂 Gavin points out the bull case: "Wall Street consensus has been wrong before, and I do think CoreWeave runs these big GPU clusters as well as anyone." "And there aren't that many people on planet Earth who can run them well." "What may be underappreciated about CoreWeave is it's actually really hard to run these big training clusters." "Everybody thinks it's easy, but to synchronize tens of thousands of GPUs where they're melting or cables are being unplugged and you lose a bunch of training data when it happens." "It may not be the commodity that everyone thinks it is, and it may turn out that it's much harder to do than people think." 🏪 Compares it to running a national retail brand: "In America, if you can pick any retail category, and if you can run 1000 stores in 50 different states with different preferences and have those stores well lit, clean, stocked by friendly employees with the right stuff in stock, you will create a business that is worth well over $10B." "And that sounds easy, but very few companies have been able to do it."

The All-In Podcast

33,723 views • 1 year ago

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

The All-In Podcast

84,919 views • 1 month ago

Dan on why hyperscalers will be a worse business model over time even as growth accelerates: "AWS, Azure, GCP are going to accelerate for a while just because their customer base -- Anthropic, OpenAI -- are growing at an enormous pace. The problem is you went from a dynamic where their customer base was like every corporation in the world and therefore they had fragmentation and it was a really good business. Going forward it's highly unlikely that LLMs are not concentrated in the hands of 4 or 5 companies. Those companies right now, are cashflow negative, and therefore they're looking for compute anywhere they can get it. In the next 5 to 10 years, they'll be generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. When that happens, they're likely to insource the compute. Right now, they look at the hyperscalers as more of a financing mechanism. But I don't think they are better than the LLMs at building data centers. Then you have this dynamic of neoclouds. I don't think they're going away like people thought, because they're better at running GPU clusters than the traditional hyperscalers, and there's a lot of interest from NVIDIA to make sure that their customer base is diversified."

Dan on why hyperscalers will be a worse business model over time even as growth accelerates: "AWS, Azure, GCP are going to accelerate for a while just because their customer base -- Anthropic, OpenAI -- are growing at an enormous pace. The problem is you went from a dynamic where their customer base was like every corporation in the world and therefore they had fragmentation and it was a really good business. Going forward it's highly unlikely that LLMs are not concentrated in the hands of 4 or 5 companies. Those companies right now, are cashflow negative, and therefore they're looking for compute anywhere they can get it. In the next 5 to 10 years, they'll be generating enormous amounts of free cash flow. When that happens, they're likely to insource the compute. Right now, they look at the hyperscalers as more of a financing mechanism. But I don't think they are better than the LLMs at building data centers. Then you have this dynamic of neoclouds. I don't think they're going away like people thought, because they're better at running GPU clusters than the traditional hyperscalers, and there's a lot of interest from NVIDIA to make sure that their customer base is diversified."

Patrick OShaughnessy

341,768 views • 5 months ago

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

A single gigawatt of orbital compute requires roughly 200 Starship launches and Elon Musk is not satisfied with gigawatts (Save this). The target is 100 gigawatts of orbital compute per year which means SpaceX is staring down a launch requirement that no organization in human history has ever attempted at anything close to that scale. He acknowledges that scaling to gigawatts per year in orbit is a very hard challenge, but then points to something most people have missed entirely, SpaceX has already demonstrated the foundational capability, because building and launching thousands of Starlink satellites per year is the same industrial problem applied to a different payload. When you understand the orbital compute satellite as a larger version of Starlink V3 with an Nvidia GPU rack at the center instead of a communications payload, the manufacturing and launch scaling challenge stops looking like science fiction and starts looking like a production ramp. The infrastructure to support that ramp is already being built. SpaceX is currently capacitizing for thousands of launches per year, two launch towers and pads in South Texas are operational, the first pad at Cape Canaveral is nearly complete, a second is on the way at Launch Complex 37, and additional locations are already in discussion. As the CFO says it "You need to have those cost curves as you ramp up in volume and time, your costs go down." The vision he describes for what this eventually enables is striking in its specificity. He imagines asking Grok a question on his phone, the inference running on an orbital compute satellite, and the answer coming back down through Starlink direct-to-cell, a complete AI query processed entirely in space, from prompt to response, without touching a single terrestrial data center. That moment, he says, is closer than the industry thinks, with initial capability demonstrations possible as soon as next year. The bottleneck that stands between now and that moment is not the satellite design, the cooling physics, or the silicon, all of which SpaceX has already worked through.

Milk Road AI

67,868 views • 2 months ago

Important reality check from WashPost's Josh Rogin about the age/condition of govt planes during after AF1 had electrical issues and turned around instead of continuing its flight to Davos.... "Over the course of 20 years of traveling on government aircraft, this happens all the time. You know, it's a really old fleet and there's a constant state of disrepair. It's much more rare for Air Force One than it is for like the planes that the vice president and the secretary of defense, the secretary of state, might fly on. But these things happen, and it's because the planes are very, very old. And so, I think the fact that they caught it early and they turned back, it shouldn't really be a big problem. But it is kind of shocking to people who don't know, but it's kind of an open secret amongst the reporters who travel with senior officials that the U.S. fleet is very old and the planes are not in good condition, and that doesn't justify taking a plane from Qatar for free or anything like that. But it's just kind of a thing that everybody knows that these are really old planes and they malfunction all the time. So, they caught it. They're going to go back, they're going to get on a couple other planes. They'll be a little late. It'll probably be okay, and they'll fix the plane. But these things happen because the U.S. government fleet is very, very old and these planes are very, very old."

Important reality check from WashPost's Josh Rogin about the age/condition of govt planes during after AF1 had electrical issues and turned around instead of continuing its flight to Davos.... "Over the course of 20 years of traveling on government aircraft, this happens all the time. You know, it's a really old fleet and there's a constant state of disrepair. It's much more rare for Air Force One than it is for like the planes that the vice president and the secretary of defense, the secretary of state, might fly on. But these things happen, and it's because the planes are very, very old. And so, I think the fact that they caught it early and they turned back, it shouldn't really be a big problem. But it is kind of shocking to people who don't know, but it's kind of an open secret amongst the reporters who travel with senior officials that the U.S. fleet is very old and the planes are not in good condition, and that doesn't justify taking a plane from Qatar for free or anything like that. But it's just kind of a thing that everybody knows that these are really old planes and they malfunction all the time. So, they caught it. They're going to go back, they're going to get on a couple other planes. They'll be a little late. It'll probably be okay, and they'll fix the plane. But these things happen because the U.S. government fleet is very, very old and these planes are very, very old."

Curtis Houck

47,464 views • 6 months ago