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Georgia in reverse: how showcase of post-Soviet democratisation turned into a country with 'functionally pro-Russian' regime Over the past three years, Georgia has followed a path that few could have predicted. A country that received EU candidate status in December 2023 has now effectively frozen its European integration. A...

50,406 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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After the May 9 events, Putin gave a late-night interview to journalists at the Kremlin. Formally, he spoke about Ukraine and negotiations. But in reality, it was a broader political signal about how Russia sees the future order in Europe and across the post-Soviet space. In the interview, Putin directly linked Ukraine’s European integration to the beginning of the war and effectively warned Armenia about its own movement toward the EU. ‼️ In his remarks, he explicitly said that everything “started” with Ukraine joining - or attempting to join - the European Union. This is an important point because for years Russian diplomacy tried to promote the narrative that the EU was supposedly a neutral economic project that did not provoke objections from Moscow. Now Putin himself has placed Ukraine’s European integration into the causal chain the Kremlin uses to explain the war. Because of this, the interview once again demonstrates that, for the Kremlin, the threat is not only the military integration of neighboring states with the West, but also their departure from Russia’s political, economic, and regulatory space. In Russian logic, the EU has long ceased to be viewed as merely a “market” or an “economic partnership.” It is perceived as an alternative center of power that gradually pulls post-Soviet states out of Russia’s orbit through rules, standards, institutions, and political transformation. The most interesting part of the interview concerned Armenia. Putin stated that if Armenians support a European course, Russia could proceed toward a “civilized” or “intelligent divorce.” On the surface, this sounds almost soft. But the problem is that just minutes before and after that statement, he explained that Ukraine’s European integration was precisely what triggered the conflict. In this way, a very transparent hidden message is being formed: Ukraine also began with a movement toward the EU - and according to the Russian version of events, that ended in war. That is why the phrase “civilized divorce” is far harsher than it appears. It contains an implicit threat: do not repeat the Ukrainian scenario. The Kremlin is making it clear that the departure of post-Soviet states from Russia’s sphere of influence is not viewed as a neutral sovereign decision. Moscow believes it has the right to determine the terms of such a departure and to “respond” to it. Another important message from the interview concerns negotiations with Ukraine. Putin said he would allow a meeting with Zelenskyy even in a third country, rather than only in Moscow as he previously demanded. But only under one condition: if final long-term agreements are ready to be signed there. In other words, within Russian logic, negotiations are not a process of searching for compromise. They are the final stage of legally formalizing results that the Kremlin hopes to obtain first through force and coercion. The entire interview also shows that Russia still sees the United States as its primary interlocutor. Within this framework, Ukraine is presented as a secondary participant, while Europe is portrayed as a weaker and less sovereign actor. This is a continuation of the old Russian logic: the future order in Europe should be determined through agreements between great powers, rather than through the sovereign choices of smaller countries.

Anton Gerashchenko

152,906 views • 2 months ago