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Great example of old vs. new values By the eye test, this is a marvelous catch, the kind fans are glad they paid money to see By analytics, this had an 85% catch probability per The WARmonger & only looked hard because of a bad jump Is it good... show more

Not Gaetti

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238,200 views • 1 year ago •via X (Twitter)

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This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

This is the kind of play that eye testers have a hard time with, but also shows why catch probability is so useful. This ball had just a 55% catch probability, and is just made to look so easy by Ceddanne Rafaela. It's all about what you don't see on the screen, because it happens before the camera is on the play. The jump is 9.0 feet above average. He was positioned well into right-center. Lesser outfielders win catch on the week on this one with a full extension dive.

The WARmonger

437,897 views • 1 year ago

This Wyatt Langford catch from yesterday is a great example of why catch probability is good to know. Just a 45% catch probability here. Why? Any MLB outfielder catches this ball if they get there. Most can't get there. Langford's jump is elite, +8.7 feet above the average outfielder. The jump is so good he doesn't even have to get up to top speed. This is just a routine double into the gap much of the time, and the TV viewer thinks nothing of it:

This Wyatt Langford catch from yesterday is a great example of why catch probability is good to know. Just a 45% catch probability here. Why? Any MLB outfielder catches this ball if they get there. Most can't get there. Langford's jump is elite, +8.7 feet above the average outfielder. The jump is so good he doesn't even have to get up to top speed. This is just a routine double into the gap much of the time, and the TV viewer thinks nothing of it:

The WARmonger

324,242 views • 1 year ago

That was over this play LMFAOOO It had a 90% catch probability btw per, The WARmonger

That was over this play LMFAOOO It had a 90% catch probability btw per, The WARmonger

KutterIsKing

566,859 views • 3 months ago

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

Yesterday's best outfield catch! Just a 45% catch probability. Looks like a routine play, no? Why is it so special? Because of what happens before the camera is on PCA. This is why the eye test is poor for fielding. A +10.7 feet jump, just remarkable, allows him to cruise to the ball, covering 77 feet in 4.2 seconds. Jump is player movement in the first three seconds from pitch release. Most MLB outfielders don't catch this one, and many who do are diving...

The WARmonger

958,386 views • 1 year ago

Not to be a hater right now but this play had an 85% catch probability. Freeman has picked it up with the bat and its great to see but I do not think he is a centerfielder at all.

Not to be a hater right now but this play had an 85% catch probability. Freeman has picked it up with the bat and its great to see but I do not think he is a centerfielder at all.

mlbfeeelit

1,452,124 views • 2 years ago

This ball had a 99% catch probability. -11.7 feet of jump below average.

This ball had a 99% catch probability. -11.7 feet of jump below average.

The WARmonger

1,410,895 views • 1 year ago

Absurd catch yesterday by Jacob Young of the Nationals. Just 2% catch probability on this one from Statcast (rounds up to 5%). Why doesn't it look that hard for Young? His jump was one of the best of the year, over 12 feet above average.

Absurd catch yesterday by Jacob Young of the Nationals. Just 2% catch probability on this one from Statcast (rounds up to 5%). Why doesn't it look that hard for Young? His jump was one of the best of the year, over 12 feet above average.

The WARmonger

99,789 views • 1 month ago

This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

This play had a 0% catch probability and a 0% catch actuality (but only just barely)! Pete Crow-Armstrong is going to spoil the curve for lesser outfielders!

The WARmonger

1,106,931 views • 1 year ago

Unreal catch tonight by Hayden Federico of Ole Miss Baseball and Hyannis Harbor Hawks. With a 5% catch probability and just 3.2 seconds of hang time, he covers 85 feet to make the catch!

Unreal catch tonight by Hayden Federico of Ole Miss Baseball and Hyannis Harbor Hawks. With a 5% catch probability and just 3.2 seconds of hang time, he covers 85 feet to make the catch!

Ben Resnic

18,564 views • 1 year ago

This ball had a 85% catch probability for jASSon Dominguez and he was the furthest one from it 😭😭😭

This ball had a 85% catch probability for jASSon Dominguez and he was the furthest one from it 😭😭😭

KutterIsKing

327,191 views • 11 months ago

Michael Harris II with the diving grab this evening in Atlanta: 80% catch probability. Why did it look so tough? -5.3 feet below average on the jump, and that's against all OF, not just CF. Tough sun for sure. The broadcast with an excellent theory, they cut to Andruw Jones with "he's probably saying he catches this standing up"! Still a fun catch and exciting finish. Please don't think you're not allowed to love a catch because of what the metrics are. Harris II always tends to catch the ball, the most important thing!

Michael Harris II with the diving grab this evening in Atlanta: 80% catch probability. Why did it look so tough? -5.3 feet below average on the jump, and that's against all OF, not just CF. Tough sun for sure. The broadcast with an excellent theory, they cut to Andruw Jones with "he's probably saying he catches this standing up"! Still a fun catch and exciting finish. Please don't think you're not allowed to love a catch because of what the metrics are. Harris II always tends to catch the ball, the most important thing!

The WARmonger

311,478 views • 1 year ago

I really want Noelvi Marte to be good in CF, but this was pretty rough. Took a step in. Then kind of never sprinted. His average sprint speed is 29 feet/per second. On this play, it was just 26.8. MLB had it as an 80% catch probability for him.

I really want Noelvi Marte to be good in CF, but this was pretty rough. Took a step in. Then kind of never sprinted. His average sprint speed is 29 feet/per second. On this play, it was just 26.8. MLB had it as an 80% catch probability for him.

Reds Daily

34,523 views • 25 days ago

Dear Football Fans, this is a safe space. Was this a catch by Brandin Cooks or an Int? (via NFL)

Dear Football Fans, this is a safe space. Was this a catch by Brandin Cooks or an Int? (via NFL)

Robert Griffin III

1,679,449 views • 5 months ago

Per Statcast, a 90% catch probability here for #Orioles right fielder Heston Kjerstad on this leadoff double by Mariners' J.P. Crawford in the bottom of the 5th inning:

Per Statcast, a 90% catch probability here for #Orioles right fielder Heston Kjerstad on this leadoff double by Mariners' J.P. Crawford in the bottom of the 5th inning:

Jake Rill

38,090 views • 1 year ago

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

Pete Crow-Armstrong is a wizard in CF! Two plays! 🧵 Play One: How good is PCA? This ball (a single) had a ZERO PERCENT catch probability! He covered an insane 43 feet in his "jump", and the play didn't even last long enough to be considered a full jump!

The WARmonger

344,836 views • 1 year ago

This ball had a 99% catch probability. Heston Kjerstad had -11.7 feet of jump (😬), then took a circuitous route at 18.1 f/os to get to the general area of where this Salvador Perez "double" finally left a crater.

This ball had a 99% catch probability. Heston Kjerstad had -11.7 feet of jump (😬), then took a circuitous route at 18.1 f/os to get to the general area of where this Salvador Perez "double" finally left a crater.

The WARmonger

719,858 views • 1 year ago

The TNF broadcast only showed one angle of this catch by the Falcons. It's hard to tell but it looks like the receiver does not survive the fall and secures the catch

The TNF broadcast only showed one angle of this catch by the Falcons. It's hard to tell but it looks like the receiver does not survive the fall and secures the catch

Rate the Refs

189,999 views • 7 months ago

This is an example of a GREAT throw with GOOD mechanics by Bryce Underwood last season. -Drops back -Steps up in the pocket. -Makes the throw to Anthony Simpson for a 30+ yard gain. We will see more of this in 2026.

This is an example of a GREAT throw with GOOD mechanics by Bryce Underwood last season. -Drops back -Steps up in the pocket. -Makes the throw to Anthony Simpson for a 30+ yard gain. We will see more of this in 2026.

Michigan Metal 〽️

12,481 views • 1 month ago